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TRANSCRIPT
5/27/2016
1
May 27, 2016
Washington Area Economy: Performance
and Outlook
Center for Regional AnalysisSchool of Policy, Government & International Affairs
George Mason University
Presentation to
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDPPast Four Recessions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P*
Quarters After Trough*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
Quarters After Trough
% C
ha
ng
e in
GD
P*
Recession Recovery Patterns of GDP
Past Four Recessions
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
*in 1992 or 2009 Chained Dollars
Contributions to Post Recession RecoveriesAverage Growth After 27 Quarters
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
4.6
3.6
2.42.1
2.8
2.3
1.6 1.5
0.4 0.3
-0.2
0.20.6
0.8 0.7 0.6
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1982-Q3 1991-Q1 2001-Q4 2009-Q2
Recession
GDP Personal Consumption Residential Investment Exports
Avg
% C
hg
5/27/2016
3
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
6.2%
8.3%
9.3%
12.2%
8.9%
11.9%
11.1%
12.7%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Pe
rce
nt
of
GD
P
Quarters After Start of Recession
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
Increasing Role of Exports% of GDP 27 Quarters Post-Recession
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
3.4%
4.3%
3.5% 4.1%
5.2%
3.3%
2.7%
3.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Pe
rce
nt
of
GD
P
Quarters After Start of Recession
1982-Q3
1991-Q1
2001-Q4
2009-Q2
Decreasing Role of Residential Investment% of GDP 27 Quarters Post-Recession
5/27/2016
4
U.S. Leading IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Coincident IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Jan
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5/27/2016
5
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Mfg
N-Mfg
ISM Manufacturing and
Non-Manufacturing Indices
Source: Institute for Supply Management
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Annual Change in Payroll Jobs – USMonth-Over-Year
(000s)
Apr =
+2.7M
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
6
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
700
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
(000s)
US Payroll Job ChangeMonth-to-Month
Apr =
+160
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016
7
35
71
73
67
129
160
-19
449
337
99
611
673
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 800
Federal Govt.
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
(000s) Total = 2,692Ranked by Size in 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted),
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
7
U.S. Payroll Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016
-9
0
9
5
3
-7
20
4
22
-3
-2
65
54
-50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70 90
Federal Govt.
Information
Transp. & Util.
Other Services
Wlse Trade
Construction
Financial
Manufacturing
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Educ & Health Svcs
(000s)
Total =
160
Ranked by Size in 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted),
GMU Center for Regional Analysis
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Initial Claims for Unemployment4-Week Moving Average
May 21: 268K
Source: Department of Labor
(000s)
5/27/2016
8
250
300
350
400
450
500
May 21
268
Source: Department of Labor
(000s)
Initial Claims for Unemployment2011-Present 4-Week Moving Average
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
U.S. Unemployment Rate
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Economics May 2016
Apr = 5.0
%
IHS Forecast
16 – 4.9
17 – 4.8
18 – 4.8
19 – 5.1
20 – 5.1
5/27/2016
9
Oil Prices$ per barrel
0
20
40
60
80
100
12020
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
$/barrel
Source: IHS Economics May 2016
Forecast > > > > >
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16
100
Consumer Confidence
Source: The Conference Board, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Expectations
Current Situation
5/27/2016
10
(1.0)
-
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Consumer Prices
2001 - 2020Forecast > > >
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, IHS Economics May 2016
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
30-Yr
10-Yr
Treas
Fed
Interest Rates
2001 - 2020Forecast > > >
Source: IHS Economics May 2016
5/27/2016
11
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
Existing (Left Axis)
New (Right Axis)
U.S. New and Existing Home Sales
(000s) (000s)
Source: National Association of Home Builders (New), National Association of Realtors (Existing)
Growth in Total Consumption Outlays
3.1
3.83.5
3
2.2
-0.3
-1.6
1.92.3
1.51.7
2.73.1
2.7 2.9
2.6 2.5 2.3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics May 2016
Forecast > > > >
5/27/2016
12
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
GDP
Non-Res: Structures
Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr
Residential Fixed
State & Local
Federal
U.S. Economic Performance
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics May 2016
Forecast > > > > > >%
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2016
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Economics May 2016
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6Forecast
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
%
5/27/2016
13
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
Annual Change in US Employed Workers* (000s)
Apr =
+2.5 M
*employed workers include full-time, part-time, self-employed and contract workersSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
130.0
Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16
U.S. Coincident and Leading Indices
Mar 2009 – Mar 2016RECESSION
Source: The Conference Board
C.I.
L.I.
5/27/2016
14
The Washington Economy
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Leading Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-Month
Moving Average
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
15
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
Washington MSA Coincident Economic IndexMonth-Over-Year Percent Change
12-Month
Moving Average
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16(000s)
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Washington MSA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
16
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
(000s)
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
District of Columbia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16(000s)
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Suburban Maryland
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
17
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
6
(000s)
Annual Job Change – MOTYC
Northern Virginia
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Apr 2015 – Apr 2016
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200(000s)
Washington +71,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
18
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: Apr 2015 – Apr 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Washington +2.3%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeWashington MSA, 2002-2016
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
200
2
200
5
200
8
(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
19
Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016Washington MSA
1
2
0
-2
2
3
11
15
12
4
7
1
17
(20.0) (10.0) - 10.0 20.0 30.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total = 71,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016Washington MSA
1
0
0
0
0
0
3
103
0
1
0
6
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0
Transp. & Util.Wlse Trade
ManufacturingInformation
FinancialOther Services
ConstructionLeisure & Hosp.
Retail TradeState & Local Govt
Educ & Health SvcsFederal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total = 25,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
20
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSA
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
200
2
200
5
200
8
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
(000s)
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Apr-16
Total: 735.7
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Professional & Business ServicesWashington MSAAnnual Month Over the Year
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25Prof., Sci. & Tech. Svcs & Mgt. Admin. & Waste Mgt.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)
5/27/2016
21
Federal GovernmentWashington MSA
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
200
2
200
5
200
8
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
Ma
y
Au
g
No
v
Fe
b
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis Apr-16 Total: 364.2
Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Annual Job ChangeDistrict of Columbia, 2002-2016
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
200
2
200
5
200
8
(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
22
Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016District of Columbia
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
2
2
1
2
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total 11,500
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016District of Columbia
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
1
1
2
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total 6,200
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
23
Annual Job ChangeSuburban Maryland, 2002-2016
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
200
2
200
5
200
8
(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016Suburban Maryland
0
0
0
-1
1
2
7
4
4
2
4
1
4
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total 26,400
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
24
Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016Suburban Maryland
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
4
2
0
0
0
1
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total 9,400
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Job ChangeNorthern Virginia, 2002-2016
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
200
2
200
5
200
8
(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
25
Job Change by SectorApr 2015 – Apr 2016Northern Virginia
0
2
0
0
1
3
1
6
6
2
3
-1
9
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total 31,700
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Job Change by SectorMar 2016 – Apr 2016Northern Virginia
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
4
2
0
0
0
3
(10.0) (5.0) - 5.0 10.0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
State & Local Govt
Educ & Health Svcs
Federal Govt.
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
(000s) Total 10,600
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
26
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
6.3 – DC
5.0 – U.S.
4.2 – SMD
4.1 – MSA
3.4 - NVA
Unemployment Rates in the WMSA
By Sub-State Area, 2009-2016
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
15 Largest Job MarketsRanked by Unemployment RateMar 2016
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0%
US: 5.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)
5/27/2016
27
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
(000s)
Metro Washington
Annual Change in Employed ResidentsMonth-Over-Year
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change – Residents EmployedWashington MSA
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
(000s)Annual Data Annual Month over Year
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
28
4
0
9
20
31
80
41
69
70
-5
-7
-10
-12
-10
-8
-49
-34
-23
0
-24
-100 -75 -50 -25 0
Transp. & Util.
Wlse Trade
Manufacturing
Information
Financial
Other Services
Construction
Leisure & Hosp.
Retail Trade
Educ & Health Svcs
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private SectorThe Great Recession and Recovery
(000s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total -181 Total 323
Aug 2008-Feb 2010 Feb 2010-Ap 2016
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2011 – 2012
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
(000s)
Washington +39,500
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
29
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2012 – 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
(000s)
Washington + 28,100
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
15 Largest Job MarketsJob Change: 2013 – 2014
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
(000s)
Washington + 18,600
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
30
Housing Market Trends
(60.0)
(40.0)
(20.0)
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
Apr =
-0.6%
Percent Change in
Inventories of Existing HomesMonth-Over-Year 2000 – 2016, MSA
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis. Total monthly inventory
includes listings active at the end of the month plus sales during the month.
5/27/2016
31
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
199
9
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Existing Home Sales
Washington MSA
Through Apr 2016
12-Month Moving Average
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Listings Per SaleApr Each Year
-
5
10
15
20
25
LDN
PG
FFXARL
DC
MONT
PW
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
32
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Median House Sales Price
Washington MSA
$394.0KApr 2016
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
(000s)
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeWashington MSAAll Housing Types
5
10
1414
2022
2 1
-17
-10
5
13 2
6 69
3 4 4
78
10
14
6
119 8 8
98
78 9
4 5
89
35
2 2 1 2
-1
5
1
4 5
12
0
0
-1
1 0
3
0
4
-3-2
0
0
1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30%Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
5/27/2016
33
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeDistrict of Columbia All Housing Types
13
22
14
10
1819
-1
20
-10
4 3
108 8
0
14
-3-4
4
13
7
1314
1
8
46
2
15
11
5
17
4 5
-5
1011
-1
1211
64
-1
-6
12
0
10
75 5
1 1
-2
3
89
6
10
-1-3
-2
5
1
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
%
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeSuburban Maryland All Housing Types
36
1414
1922
63
-8
-16
-5-3-4
-2-1
1011
5 4
0
911
6
14
4
1111
810
111212
6
9 10
5
1213
5 4
1
0-2
24 4
-3
2 1
-3
1 1
-1-1
3
-1
3
-4
5
-1
35
-2
2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
%
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
5/27/2016
34
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeNorthern VirginiaAll Housing Types
5
121414
2123
2
-2
-23
-7
10
34
2
9
57
35 5
36
10
13
910
9 98 7 6
4
810
2
64 5
13
1 2 24
-1
24 5
8
4 4
0
20
0-1
23 2
-4-2
0 0
2
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
%
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
%
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Detached
21
42
-19
-11
4
0
2 24 5
7
3 4 35
710
15
4
10111010
8 8 89
11
3 47
11
1
6
25
0 1
-1
3
0
1
6
-1
1
-20
-4
2
-1
1 0
4
-1-20 0
2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005
2008
2011
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
%
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional AnalysisJan % ∆: DC = +8.8; SM = +0.5; NV = -3.5
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
5/27/2016
35
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Single Family Attached
23
20
-22
-8
8
35 5
8 79
53 4
1013
17
96
13101010
141310
7 64
7
16
63
5 52
41 1
4 36
0
3 31 0
-3-2
1
52
7
-3-2
03 2
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
302005
2008
2011
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
%
Jan % ∆: DC = 0.0; SM = -4.8; NV = -0.1Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
Average Sales Price Percent ChangeMetro Area – Condos
24
2 3
-9-10
0
-2
2 2
6
107 8 8 8 9
7 7
1512
118
53
13
3
8 8 710
6 810
47
5
-5
3 3
-1
9
4
10
5
1 0 0 0
5
0 0
6
-6
-1
-10
-5
3
-1-3
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2005
2008
2011
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
Ju
n
Se
p
Dec
Mar
%
Jan % ∆: DC = -8.2; SM = -5.2; NV = -0.4Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
%
Annual Change Annual Change by Month
2012 2013 2014 2015
5/27/2016
36
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Washington MSABuilding Permits
2003 – 2016, 3-Month Moving Avg
Source: Census Bureau, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Total Active Listings Per Sale Apr Each Year – Metro Area
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Source: Metropolitan Regional Information Systems (MRIS), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
5/27/2016
37
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Source: GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016
Economic Outlook (GRP), 2007-2020
Washington Area and Sub-State Areas(Annual % Change)
DC
SM
MSA
NV
%
Employment Change in the WMSAby Sub-State Area (000s)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
D.C. 13.0 6.5 14.7 14.1 9.7 10.6 8.9 8.2
Sub. MD 6.1 11.1 17.4 20.2 17.7 14.1 12.0 11.0
No. VA 8.9 1.3 27.3 25.5 23.6 15.9 13.7 12.6
REGION 28.0 18.9 59.4 59.8 51.0 40.6 34.6 31.8
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000Source: BLS, IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis (January 2016)
NOTE: The regional totals do not include Jefferson, WV.
5/27/2016
38
-4
-2
0
2
4
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
%
Source: IHS Economics, GMU Center for Regional Analysis, Forecast: April 2016
U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP
2007 – 2015 – 2020(Annual % Change)
Washington
U.S.
%
Thank You
Questions
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