wassmann - adapted rice crops for a 2030 world
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Reiner Wassaman (IRRI) Adapted rice crops for a 2030 world (presentation from Adaptation session at CCAFS Science Workshop, December 2010)TRANSCRIPT
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Adapted Rice Crops for a 2030 World
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The Green Revolu-on in Asia
1960s • Yields approx. 1.5 t/ha
• Famines predicted, slow growth
Today • Yields approx. 4 t/ha
• Founda<on for economic growth
Tradi-onal rice: more biomass than grain
Modern semi – dwarf variety: grain not biomass
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Trends in Rice Prices
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Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production
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Leaf, tiller and root development
Panicle development
Grain filling Pollination
LOW HIGH MEDIUM
Sensitivity to Heat Stress
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Spikelet sterility induced by high temperature at flowering
Temp. threshold depends on humidity (ca.
34-35ºC in humid tropics).
Sterility increases by 16%
with a 1ºC increase above Temp. threshold
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18
17
16
15
Peng et al. 2004
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Field experiment on nighttime temperature
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Sea Level Trends/ Future
IPCC 2001
IPCC 2007
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Mega-Deltas of Asia
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New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence in field at IRRI
Samba-Sub1
Samba Samba-Sub1
IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1)
IR64 IR42
IR64
IR64-Sub1
Samba-Sub1
IR49830 (Sub1)
Samba
IR64
IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1)
IR42
IR64-Sub1
IR64
IR49830 (Sub1) IR49830 (Sub1)
IR42
Samba
IR42
Samba
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Typhoons Cyclones
Hurricanes
UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library, 2005 <http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/tropical-cyclone-frequency>
Cyclones
Frequency of Tropical Cyclones
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Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007):
• As of now, ‘there is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones’.
• Under ongoing global warming, however, ‘it is likely that future tropical cyclones will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation…’.
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Before Nargis
After Nargis
Impact of Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar (May 2008)
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Nargis (May 08)
* http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/highlights/2008/05/Burma_Cyclone_Nargis_Rice_Impact
Track over land > 150 km/h wind speed: 1022 km
> 180 km/h wind speed: 365 km
Area affected Standing rice crop: 33,000 ha
Salinity intrusion: ?
Track over land > 150 km/h wind speed: 348 km
> 180 km/h wind speed: 55 km
Area affected Standing rice crop: 16,000 ha
Salinity intrusion: 1,750,000 ha*
Typhoon Effects in Philippines vs. Myanmar
Xangsane (Sep. 06)
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Adaptation to Climate Change
Funded by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation
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Origin Distribution
Diversity of rice gene and rice growing
environments
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Conclusion
Adaptation:
Rice systems have to become more resilient to…
• Drought • Submergence • Salinity • Heat waves
Challenges of Adaptation = Challenges in unfavorable environments