wastewater disposal, hydraulic fracturing, and seismicity ... · 1867 mmi-vii near manhattan 1906...
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Wastewater Disposal, Hydraulic Fracturing, and Seismicity in Southern Kansas
Justin Rubinstein | Earthquake Science Center
With Thanks To:
1867 MMI-VII near Manhattan
1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------
1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)
1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)
Earthquake History in Kansas
1973-2012
Earthquake History in Kansas
1973-02/23/20161867 MMI-VII near Manhattan
1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)
1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)--------------2014 Oct 2 M4.3 near Anthony DYFI – MMI-VI
2014 Nov 12 M4.8 near Milan DYFI – MMI-VI
109 M≥3 Earthquakes2013 - 02/23/2016
4 M≥4 Earthquakes
Earthquake History in Kansas
1973-12/09/20151867 MMI-VII near Manhattan
1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)
1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)--------------2014 Oct 2 M4.3 near Anthony DYFI – MMI-VI
2014 Nov 12 M4.8 near Milan DYFI – MMI-VI
104 M≥3 Earthquakes2013 - 12/09/2015
4 M≥4 Earthquakes
1867 MMI-VII near Manhattan
1906 MMI-VII near Manhattan--------------1987 Sleepy Hollow (EOR?)
1989 Palco M4.0 (SWD?)--------------2014 Oct 2 M4.3 near Anthony DYFI – MMI-VI
2014 Nov 12 M4.8 near Milan DYFI – MMI-VI
104 M≥3 Earthquakes2013 - 12/09/2015
4 M≥4 Earthquakes
Earthquake History in Kansas
1973-12/09/2015
Primarily Normal Faulting
• Issued 3/19/2015
• 5 zones defined by seismicity w/
widths of 3 miles
• 10 days - 16K bbl/day
• 55 days - 12K bbl/day
• 100 days - 8K bbl/day
• Daily injection volume and pressure
• Plug Back wells into basement
There are even more wells…
165 Permitted
≥= 10K Bbl/day
232 Permitted
>= 5K Bbl/day
Has this reduced seismicity?
After RulesBefore Rules
Has this reduced seismicity?
Before Regulations
Has this reduced seismicity?
• 530 M≥2 in 8 months prior
• 477 M≥2 in 8 months since
• 48 EQs, GK decluster
– 11 clusters pre
– 37 clusters post
Has this reduced seismicity?
Before Rules
580 M≥2 in 10 months
530 in AOSC
50 outside
After Rules
514 M≥2 in 10 months
327 in AOSC
187 outside
Has this reduced seismicity?
Zone 1
• 5 high rate wells (twin)
• Active since Mar 2014
• M4.3 and M4.10
50
100
Nu
mbe
r o
f M
2+
ea
rth
qua
ke
s
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct0
20
40
Daily
In
jecte
d V
olu
me (
10
00 *
bbl)
Zone 1
• 5 high rate wells (twin)
• Active since Nov 2014
• Mmax 3.6
Zone 2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Nu
mbe
r o
f M
2+
ea
rth
qua
ke
s
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Daily
In
jecte
d V
olu
me (
10
00 *
bbl)
Zone 2
Apr May Jun Jul Aug
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Da
iy In
jecte
d V
olu
me
(1
00
0xB
Bl)
Zone 5
• 1 nearby high rate well
• Active since June 2014
• Mmax 4.8
Zone 5
Magnitude Distribution
1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 510
0
101
102
Magnitude
Nu
mb
er
of
EQ
sMagnitude Frequency Diagram
Jul−Sep14 0.9
Oct−Dec14 1.0
Jan−Mar15 0.9
Apr−Jun15 1.0
Jul−Sep15 1.0
Oct−Dec15 0.9
• Rules in place for > 10 months
• Injection in large wells has decreased
• Has water been moved to other wells?
• Earthquake rates are reduced in AOSC
• EQ rates increased outside AOSC
• EQs are more diffuse
• USGS catalog available online*
*not completely the same as ComCat
Summary
M5.1 Fairview Earthquake
• Feb 12 M5.1 EQ
• 6 M4 EQs in the preceding 4 months
• 3rd largest EQ in state history
• USGS Deployed 8 seismometers
M5.1 Fairview Earthquake
• Feb 12 M5.1 EQ
• 6 M4 EQs in the preceding 4 months
• 3rd largest EQ in state history
• USGS Deployed 8 seismometers