water a griculture & sustainability view from the sun corridor mega-region

Water Agriculture & SustainabilityView from the Sun Corridor Mega-Region

Jim Holway, Ph.D., AICP

Director, Joint VentureSonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Shaping the Future of the West

Water and …..• Growth• Energy• Climate

• Agriculture…. Is this the source ?• Environment ….. Is anything left ?

ForcesDriving

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 20300

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

AZ

CO

UT

NM

NV

Year

Popu

latio

n

Southwest States - Growth

Comparison of central Arizona supply and demand

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 2080 2085 2090 2095 21000

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

Acr

e-Fe

et

2030 = 2.0 million af 8.5 million

people

2045 = 2.4 million acre-feet 10.2 million people



Uncertain

Possibly Available

Likely Available

Currently Secured

M.J. Pasqualetti, School of Geographical Sciences, ASU

Average Gallons Needed per one MWhr Arizona-Based Facilities (2002-2006)

Significant Cultural Events

Municipal17% Industrial

1%

Agriculture82%

California Water Use - 2000

Municipal23%

Industrial4%

Agriculture73%

Nevada Water Use - 2000Municipal

7% Ind/Comm2%

Agriculture86%

Other5%

Colorado Water Use - 2006

Municipal20%

Industrial6%

Agriculture74%

Arizona Water Use - 2006Who Uses The Water

1973 1978 1983 1985 1990 1995 1998 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 -

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

Year

Dem

and

(af)

Historic & Projected Demands – Phoenix AMA

Total

Municipal

Agriculture

IndustrialIndian

Pinal County Listening Session

• Proximity to urban centers could be an opportunity • Concerns

– urbanization / farmland preservation– Impact of development on water supplies– Input prices (energy, fertilizers)– Labor management with new crops– Do the kids want to farm?

• Questions for future– Maintaining feed supplies for dairies– How to manage transition from field to specialty crops – Operating on leased (as opposed to owned) land – Labor-saving technology

Envisioning Sustainable MegaRegionAgriculture

– Define a role for agriculture in “MegaRegion– Comprehensive land use planning should consider

Ag preservation & suitability– Agriculture as land & water (drought) buffer – Mechanisms

• Right to Farm protections• Substitution of alternative Ag lands• TDRs & easements• Tax policy - property & inheritance

Source: EDAW

Thank You

I look forward to learning from your efforts !

Sonoran Institute & Lincoln Institute of Land Policy

Shaping the Future of the West

City of Phoenix – Water Deliveries by Use

Sector & Type of Use Percent of Total

Percent of Sector

RESIDENTIAL 66

Landscape 51

Pools 14

Indoors 35

NON-RESIDENTIAL 34

Landscape 61

Cooling 8

Other (e.g. process) 31

S = f( P * R * L * T * G + A)(state variables & change trajectories)

– P: Population – R: Resource Base (including Climate)– L: Lifestyle (Consumption Patterns)– T: Technology for Managing Resources– G: Governance– A: Adaptation (Resilience)

SUSTAINABILITY

Thresholds & Tipping Points

• Reaching / Exceeding Limits?– reallocations & new supplies, optimizing system– Energy required - costs

• Future - differ from past? – climate … economy … federal policy

• Public / Market Choices – water for what?– growth … lifestyle … ecosystems … industry

• Major Infrastructure Investments• Conjunctive Management & Regional Coordination• Democratize Water Management

Principles for Managing Urban Water Environments

1. Everything is Connected ecosystem level – watersheds – adaptive mgmt

2. People are part of the Ecosystem public vision – aesthetic & ecological functions

3. Institutions Mediate & Shape Relationships scale – scope – adaptable authorities

4. Change is Inevitable understand drivers - anticipate & manage

5. Water Mgmt Requires Interdisciplinary Approach

Water Environment of Cites. Springer 2009

Water, Sustainability & Policy A Few Big Questions

• How can we build resiliency & management capacity into legal frameworks & institutions

• Do we have the right balance between private rights and public welfare

• What is the right mix of market & non-market mechanisms

• How to best incorporate the environment, ecosystem health and 3rd party impacts

• Do we need more democracy, more collaboration … … or less

Life Cycle Water Use per Vehicle Mile

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

Petro

leum

Bas

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ded

Coa

l + C

S

Sola

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Sola

r CSP

Switc

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Not

Irrig

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Switc

hgra

ss -

Irrig

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Soy

Nat

iona

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Cor

n Et

hano

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atio

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vera

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Cor

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than

ol -

Irrig

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mic

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iodi

esel

- Clo

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Gal

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H2O

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Harto, Meyers & Williams: School of Sustainability, ASU

water a griculture & sustainability view from the sun corridor mega-region

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