Water, energy, agriculture and climate change nexus in one of the most important

hydroelectric basins in Chile

Sebastian Vicuna

“Clean Energy and Water: an Assessment of Services for Local Adaptation to Climate Change” September 23th - 24th, 2011 - Porto de Galinhas, Brazil

COUNTRY CONTEXT

Most economic activity in Chile is developed in the Center-South of the country

Temperature Projections

2070-2100 2040-2070 2010-2040

Precipitation projections 2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100

CASE STUDY CONTEXT

CONTEXT

The Maule Basin

Rio Maule basin •Surface: 20.295 Km2

•Main uses

1. Electric Generation • 7.282 GWh/yr • 35% of hydro country total

generation • 18% of total country

generation (CDEC, 2009)

2. Agriculture

• 243.000 Ha • 12% of total agriculture land • 20% of country irrigated land

(Censo Agropecuario, 2007)

3. Urban • Talca - 238.800 hab. • Linares – 100.600 hab. • Parral – 37.800 hab.

FUTURE SCENARIOS

Changes in temperature - Echam a1b

5

10

15

20

25

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

°C

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 Control

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

mm

5

10

15

20

25

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Changes in precipitation - Echam a1b

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

mm

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 Control

Changes in streamflow - upper basin Echam a1b

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

m3/s

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

m3/s

Changes in streamflow - middle basin - Echam a1b

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

m3/s

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

Annual Electricity Generation

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

GWh

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

Monthly average electricity generation

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

GWh

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

GWhAnnual agriculture demand coverage

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

%

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

Agriculture monthly average demand coverage

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

%

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

Laguna del Maule Storage

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

May

-50

May

-60

May

-70

May

-80

May

-90

Ap

r-00

Ap

r-10

Ap

r-20

Ap

r-30

Ap

r-40

Ap

r-50

Ap

r-60

Ap

r-70

Ap

r-80

Ap

r-90

Ap

r-00

Ap

r-10

Millon m3

2010-2040 2040-2070 2070-2100 control

Uncertainty in projections

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Δ Temperature (°C)

Δ P

reci

pit

atio

n (

%)

Echam GFDL Hadley

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5%

Δ Generation (%)

Δ A

nn

ual

Ag

De

live

ry (

%)

Echam GFDL Hadley

Period: 2010-2040

GHG Scenario: b1 a1b

Discussion

• Water energy nexus – feedbacks. – 10% loss equals the installation of a 100 MW

thermoelectric power plant

• Uncertainty but clear direction

• Water management already a challenge… more in the future

• What if demand changes?… ej. new crops, farmers generating

Acknowledgments

• People: – David Poblete, Eduardo Bustos

• Institutions: – Colbun S.A., MMA, Junta Vigilancia Rio Maule

• Project: – CORFO-INNOVA: Fortalecimiento de

Capacidades para hacer frente al cambio global

Obrigado…