Water-Energy-Food Nexus in Mekong Countries

Jiaguo Qi

Center for Global Change, Michigan State UniversityAsia Hub Initiative, Nanjing Agricultural University

UNECE 2016

GlObal geOreferenced Database of Dams (GOOD2)Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD)Future Hydropower Reservoirs and Dams (FHReD)

GlObal geOreferenced Database of Dams (GOOD2)Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD)Future Hydropower Reservoirs and Dams (FHReD)

GlObal geOreferenced Database of Dams (GOOD2)Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD)Future Hydropower Reservoirs and Dams (FHReD)

GlObal geOreferenced Database of Dams (GOOD2)Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD)Future Hydropower Reservoirs and Dams (FHReD)

GlObal geOreferenced Database of Dams (GOOD2)Global Reservoir and Dam Database (GRanD)Future Hydropower Reservoirs and Dams (FHReD)

The largest Macro River Basins Fed by The Third Pole (MRB-TTP) in Asia

ASSESSING THE IMPACTS OF DAMS ON THE DYNAMIC INTERACTIONS AMONG DISTANT WETLANDS, LAND USE, RURAL COMMUNITIES IN THE

LOWER MEKONG RIVER BASIN

PI: Jiaguo Qi

US Co investigators:@MSU: Dan Kramer, David Hyndman, Jinhua Zhao, Joseph Messina, Peilei Fan, William McConnell and Yadu Pokhrel;

@AGS: Nathan Torbick and William Salas; @VT: Venkataramana Sridhar

Int’l Partners:Sura Pattanakiat,Mahidol University, Thailand. Apisom Intralawan,Mae Fah Laung University, Thailand. Charlie Navanugraha,Nakhon Phanom

University, Thailand. Le Duc Trung, Vietnam National Mekong Committee, Vietnam, Pham Tuan Phan,Mekong River Commission, Laos. Vu Ngoc Ut,CanTho University, Vietnam. Siam Lawawirojwong,GeoInformatics and Space Technology Development Agency, Thailand. Tep Makathy,Cambodian

Institute for Urban Studies, Cambodia. Zaw Naing, Mandalay Technologies, Myanmar. Aiko Endo, Research Institute for Humanity and Nature, Japan. Anik Bhaduri, Sustainable Water Future Programme, Australia. Thongchai Suwonsichon, Kasetsart University, Thailand.

• Challenges and Opportunities– Hydropower dams –– Huge impacts on water resources;– Significant implications to water-energy-

food nexus;– Important socioeconomic

consequences;– Very controversial in biological and

ecological impacts;– Number of dams are increasing!

• LENGTH: 2,700 miles; LONGEST RIVER IN SOUTHEASTASIA, THE 7TH LONGEST IN ASIA, AND THE 12TH LONGESTIN THE WORLD

• HYDROPOWER DAMS:

Selected field study sites: Mae Chan; Pak Munn and Tonle Sap

MEKONG RIVER BASIN FACTS:

Country No. Planned dams No. Proposed dams

Cambodia 12 0

China 11 2

Laos 43 20

Myanmar 7 0

Thailand 7 0

Vietnam 1 1

Totals 74 23

Pak Mun Dam

Tradeoffs & Governance• Socio-ecological and socio-economic

analyses of ecosystem services provided by coupled dams, irrigated agriculture, wetlands, and lakes and their trade-offs across space and time

• Basin wide water strategies

Social Impacts and Responses

Ecosystem FunctionsHydroperiod, phenology, thermal regulation

and GHG emissions

Ecosystem ServicesCropping potentials, biomass, NPP,

fisheries and plant biodiversity

Wetland DynamicsWetland types, structure, composition, area expansion / shrinking, and rate of change.

Social Drivers of LCLUCLocal and use attributes and

socioeconomic drivers of land use changes

Societal ResponsesTypology of adaptation and

mitigation

Tipping PointsEcosystem services and human wellbeing across space and time

Synthesis and StrategiesSynthesis scenarios, planning,

adaptation and future development strategies

Drivers

Climate ChangeSpatio-temporal

variability in precipitation & temperature

Land Use/Cover ChangeAgricultural intensification,

irrigation & land use changeFine and large-scale, recent &

historical changes

Hydroelectric Dam Construction

Site characteristics, water storage and regulation of flows

Location and regulationSurrounding LCLUC

Hydrological ProcessesSpatio-temporal changes in river

flow, floodplain inundation dynamics, groundwater, and

reservoir storage

Ecological ProcessesLake phenology, water volume,

quality and fish production, nutrient retention and

greenhouse gas emissions

Demographic DynamicsPopulation size, household structure,

livelihood systemsEcosystem services trade-offs

Social motivation, consequences and adaptation strategies

DAMS IN THE MEKONGPokhrel et al. (2018) Pokhrel et al. 2012, 2015

Existing dams do not have significant impact on the flow in the mainstream

Impacts on tributaries could be significant Future dams are likely to largely affect the

mainstream flow

BUT…. What about lakes and wetlands?

From Co-I Nate Torbick

Water Level estimates from remote sensing

From Co-I Nate Torbick

Lin & Qi, 2017, ERL, 158: 24-32

Tonle Sap Lake

ECOLOGICAL IMPLICATIONS

kN/ha kC/ha

TRADEOFFS AND SYNERGIES

TRADEOFFS AND SYNERGIESField survey to understand the impacts and responses

Keys:CS: MRC Council Studies; MDS: Mainstream Hydropower StudiesSEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment;Phase 2 (BDP2 ) – Basin Development Plan Phase 2

CS MDS SEA BDP2

CONCLUSIONS

• So far, we have seen a significant impacts of hydro dams on hydrological and ecological processes and ecosystem services

• Tradeoffs are obvious but we need to look at all possible tradeoffs across space and time as well.

• The WEF system in Mekong is complex but the Nexus approach seems to help address these pressing issues,

Thank You!