Central Asia Water & Energy Program

Working for Energy and Water Security

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Central Asia is a dynamic and geographically diverse

region enjoying steady economic growth and new

development opportunities. A key element in the

continued growth, prosperity, stability, and well-being

of the population is the smart management of the

region’s energy and water resources.

Although Central Asia is increasingly globalized,

national aspirations, such as food security and reliable

energy services, still drive development decisions. The

competition for energy markets and the anticipated

Development Aspirations of Central Asia

scarcity of water resources have strained relations

among the countries of the region. Climate change

and population growth have the potential to strain

resources and relations further.

The Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP)

recognizes that strengthened water and energy

resources management at the national and regional

levels can lead to increased incomes, poverty reduction,

sustainable development, shared prosperity, and climate

resilience across the region.

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Working at the national and regional levels

to manage water and energy resources

can bring:

• Reliable energy supply and reduced winter energy shortages • Higher earnings generated by exporting and trading energy• Greater agricultural productivity through more reliable access to water• Improved water quality and reduced land degradation• Better adaptation to climate change and water/hydrological variability • Cost-effective infrastructure development • Enhanced environment for international and private investment for both water and energy

Central Asia is endowed with water and varied

energy resources—fossil fuels: oil, gas, and coal,

and even more abundant renewables: hydro-

power, wind and solar. These resources can support

increased agricultural production and have the

potential to exceed domestic energy demand to

supply export markets.

However, water and energy resources are unevenly

distributed across the region and access varies. In

some cases there is a lack of physical infrastructure

and the outdated systems that exist are unreliable

and inefficient. Some communities cannot meet

citizens’ electricity needs during certain times of the

year, while others lack adequate water supply.

The Benefits of Smart Management of Natural Resources

Change of Water Availability in Central Asia

EuropeCentral Asia

8.4

5.9

2.55

4.2

10987654321

thousand m3/capita/year

years1960 1970 1980 1990 2010 2020 2030 2040 20502000

Categories of water availability>1.7 significant1.0-1.7 not significant<1.0 shortage

Over the past 40 years, water supply in Central Asia declined from 8.4 th. m3/person/year to 2.5 th. m3/person/year. By 2030, at the current rate of population growth in Central Asia, this reduction will reach a critical value of less than 1.7 th. m3/year. And it is still necessary to an-nually provide an additional 500-700 million m3 of water to sustain the population of Central Asia even at very low levels of consumption.

Source: EC IFAS

CHINA

KAZAKHSTAN

UZBEKISTAN

TURKMENISTAN

TAJIKISTAN

AFGHANISTAN

22,62916,000

4,0802,549

58

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC590

5580

52664,589

2,85180

1,65732

2,6988268

2,5494

51450725412

Total Fossil Fuel MTOECoal MTOECrude Oil MTOEGas MTOEHydro MTOE

MTOE=million tons of oil equivalent

Source: Energy Supply/Demand balances and Infrastructure Constraints in Central Asia. Asian

Development Bank. 2009

Water

Melting snow from high mountain peaks and precipita-

tion provide the seasonal flows to the two major rivers

that feed the Aral Sea Basin: the Amu Darya and the Syr

Darya. The origins of the Syr Darya are the snow-covered

slopes of the Tien Shan Mountains in Kyrgyz Republic.

The Amu Darya originates from the glaciated northern

slopes of the Hindu Kush and from Wakhan in the Pamir

Highlands in Afghanistan and the Pamirs in Tajikistan.

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Water is a vital resource across the region. Both the

Syr Darya and the Amu Darya river systems have the

potential to provide abundant low-carbon hydropow-

er. At the same time, these and other rivers are vital

arteries for livelihoods—providing water for agricul-

ture and local fisheries, and sustaining environmental

ecosystems, human health, and electricity generation

across Central Asia.

However, the water sector faces many challenges: 50

percent of irrigated lands are affected by salinization

and waterlogging as a result of poor irrigation and

drainage systems. In Turkmenistan that number is 96

percent, compromising both agricultural productivity

and water quality.

Improvements to Increase Efficiency National governments are struggling to rehabilitate

aging irrigation and drainage infrastructure and

implement innovative irrigation technologies to ad-

dress these problems and improve food security and

resilience to hydrologic variability. Looking ahead,

population growth and the need for increased agri-

cultural production will continue to strain the region’s

water resources, making smart water management

both nationally and regionally a key factor for the

livelihoods of farmers and agriculture. Across Kazakh-

stan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, over 10 million

hectares of agricultural land depend on these waters

for irrigation, where agriculture on average contrib-

utes 11 percent to these economies’ GDP. Proposed

improvements in irrigation efficiency could begin to

alleviate the problem. For example, in Uzbekistan, a

1 percent increase in water pumping efficiency would

result in savings of $10 million per year; and a 10

percent increase in water pumping efficiency would

result in regional savings of $188 million per year.

Water Resources in Central Asia

Photo to the left and cover © Daniel Korzhonov, Moscow, Russia.

Karakalpakstan 7.9

Dashoguz 6.5

Horezm 4.4(UZB)

Lebap 3.9

Karakum Canal 11

Amu-Bukhara 5.2

UZB 5.3

Karshi 4.19

0.5

0.6 1.5

0.3

1.4 UZB

TJK 6.6

TJK 2

KYR 0.1

KYR 3UZB 10

UZB 10

KAZ 10

Great Turkmen Collector(under construction)

Dashoguz Collector(under construction)

Planned collector

Prospective expansionof irrigation

33.3

Rivers of Northern Afghanistan: 6.1

Rivers ofFerghana Valley: 8

20.25.6

5.3

1.5

0.9

1.2

40.2

15

4

2

9(37)

1

1

5(38)

Ysik-Kol

Aydar Lake

SarygamyshLake

A r a l K u m

Northern Aral Sea

Golden Age Lake(under construction)

Lake Balkhash

Kara Bogaz Gol

Southern Aral Sea

seasonal lake

Ili

Indus Chen

ab

Tejen

Murgab

Hari Rud

Zarafshan

Syr Darya

Surhandarya

Kafarnigan

Kara Darya

AhangaranNaryn

Panj

Kashkadarya

Chirchik-Charvak

SherabadAmu Darya

Vakhsh

Kokc

ha

Kunduz

K A Z A K H S T A N

T U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

K Y R G Y Z R E P.

T A J I K I S T A N

A F G H A N I S T A NI .R . OFIRAN

C H I N A

Ashgabat

Bishkek

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Kabul

Aralsk

Muynak

0 250 500 1000 km750

© Zoï Environment Network

Irrigated lands

Mountain regions above 2000 metres

Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net

Water discharge(km3/year)

7030105

Average river flow and water intake by canals(km3/year)

Uzbekistan

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

18$7,970$162.986%

2,725

6.2$1,130$7.682%

192

32.4$2,000$49.781%

447

5.8$6,380$37.954%

488

8.9$990$7.164%

141

Turkmenistan

Tajikistan

Kyrgyz Republic

Kazakhstan

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Population (millions)GNI per capita (US$)

GDP (billions US$)% rural population w/access to an

improved water source (2010)Land area (1,000 sq. km)

Source: World Bank 2017

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Karakalpakstan 7.9

Dashoguz 6.5

Horezm 4.4(UZB)

Lebap 3.9

Karakum Canal 11

Amu-Bukhara 5.2

UZB 5.3

Karshi 4.19

0.5

0.6 1.5

0.3

1.4 UZB

TJK 6.6

TJK 2

KYR 0.1

KYR 3UZB 10

UZB 10

KAZ 10

Great Turkmen Collector(under construction)

Dashoguz Collector(under construction)

Planned collector

Prospective expansionof irrigation

33.3

Rivers of Northern Afghanistan: 6.1

Rivers ofFerghana Valley: 8

20.25.6

5.3

1.5

0.9

1.2

40.2

15

4

2

9(37)

1

1

5(38)

Ysik-Kol

Aydar Lake

SarygamyshLake

A r a l K u m

Northern Aral Sea

Golden Age Lake(under construction)

Lake Balkhash

Kara Bogaz Gol

Southern Aral Sea

seasonal lake

Ili

Indus Chen

ab

Tejen

Murgab

Hari Rud

Zarafshan

Syr Darya

Surhandarya

Kafarnigan

Kara Darya

AhangaranNaryn

Panj

Kashkadarya

Chirchik-Charvak

SherabadAmu Darya

Vakhsh

Kokc

ha

Kunduz

K A Z A K H S T A N

T U R K M E N I S T A N

U Z B E K I S T A N

K Y R G Y Z R E P.

T A J I K I S T A N

A F G H A N I S T A NI .R . OFIRAN

C H I N A

Ashgabat

Bishkek

Tashkent

Dushanbe

Kabul

Aralsk

Muynak

0 250 500 1000 km750

© Zoï Environment Network

Irrigated lands

Mountain regions above 2000 metres

Source: water flow and water use data www.cawater-info.net

Water discharge(km3/year)

7030105

Average river flow and water intake by canals(km3/year)

WATER RESOURCES OF THE ARAL SEA BASIN

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Central Asia is rich with diverse energy resources. In

the downstream countries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan,

and Turkmenistan there are significant reserves of oil,

gas and coal, as well as wind and solar potential. The

upstream countries, Tajikistan and Kyrgyz Republic, are

particularly rich in undeveloped hydropower potential.

The diversity of such a mixed energy system offers an

opportunity to meet all countries’ electricity needs on

a seasonal basis in the most cost-effective and environ-

mentally friendly manner—taking maximum advantage

of abundant low-cost hydropower in the summer, and

having the reliability of thermal resources in winter

when the cold climate limits hydropower supplies;

while at the same time building capacity to exploit the

vast wind and solar potential in the future.

Energy

8

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Current energy systems are becoming less reliable

as the Central Asia power system deteriorates. The

region is trading 90 percent less energy than in the

early 1990s. Although new transmission lines linking

north and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan improve

the distribution situation, these plentiful resources do

not always meet domestic needs and around 2 million

households across the region used to be affected by

winter heat and power shortages per year.

The countries are working to rehabilitate existing

facilities, provide new generation infrastructure for

energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new

models for energy trade—both within and outside the

five-country community.

Updating Infrastructure to Meet Needs

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Climate Change in Central Asia

Central Asia is one of Europe and Central Asia’s most

vulnerable regions to climate change. The World Bank’s

2009 report, Adapting to Climate Change in Central Asia,

notes that average temperatures in the region have already

increased by 0.5°C and are projected to increase by 1.6° to

2.6°C by 2030-50. The cumulative effects of climate change

and the near-depletion of the Aral Sea are further increasing

water-related stress. Increasing temperatures lead to earlier

snowmelt, shifting runoff into spring and reducing water

flows in the irrigation season by up to 25 percent. Rapid

glacier melt is increasing water flows for the time being.

However, it is expected that once the Central Asia region

reaches “peak water” by around 2050, this effect will be

reversed, and river flows will decrease markedly.

Climate change affects all sectors vital to economic growth

and development in the region, not least of which are

energy, agriculture, and disaster risk management that also

cut across national borders. Weather-related disasters are

currently estimated at 1% of GDP per year in Tajikistan and

Kyrgyz Republic. Adaptation will be a requirement, rather

than an option, for the region.

If current water management policies persist, wa-

ter scarcity could lead to a significant slowdown in

economic performance. At the same time, more ef-

ficient use of water in the economy could significantly

contribute to increased agricultural production, green

energy production and the health of the region’s

environmental assets. Of all the world’s regions, the

impact of future water consumption patterns has the

greatest impact on economic growth in Central Asia;

the region has the most to gain (or to lose) from (not)

properly managing water resources under climate

change compared to other regions.

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800

1,200

1,600

Average Seasonal Flow of the Syr Daryawater dischargem3/second

FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

irrigation season

Flow today

Projection 2071-2100(A1B emission scenario)

Source: Shiklomanov 2009

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Seasonal Flow of the Syr Darya Projected to Decrease?

Climate-related impacts on GDP in 2050 (ranges of impacts determined by policies)

Source: World Bank. 2016. High and dry: climate change, water, and the economy (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/862571468196731247/High-and-dry-climate-change-water-and-the-economy

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The Central Asia Water and Energy Program (CAWEP) strengthens the enabling environment to promote energy and water security at regional level and in the beneficiary countries by leveraging the benefits of enhanced coopera-tion. CAWEP promotes water and energy security working at the national scale to strengthen national institutional capacities and sector performance, while at the same time keeping regional cooperation on the dialogue agenda to create an enabling environment for achieving national and regional energy and water security. The Program is

anchored in partnerships with governments to ensure that program activities address national priorities. CAWEP coop-erates with other development and financing partners to enhance the impact in meeting its objectives and to lever-age investments by others. As the Program entered its third funding phase in 2018, the Program added Afghanistan as a sixth direct beneficiary country of CAWEP funds. This for-malizes the ongoing practice of Afghanistan’s participation in multiple CAWEP activities, in particularly those focused on regional consultations.

Central Asia Water and Energy Program

Energy Security Water Security Energy-Water Linkages Promote and study high-value energy invest-ments that focus on energy security, energy efficiency, trade, infrastructure planning, ac-countability and institutional development.

Enhance the productive and efficient use of water in agriculture and energy sectors through capacity strengthening, institutional strengthen-

ing, and investment planning

Improve the understanding of linkages between energy, water and the environment at the

national and regional levels through dialogue, energy-water modeling, regional hydrometeo-rology investments and exploring the future

impacts of climate change.

Focus National water sector strengthening, Improved regional water management;

Sub-basin water management, Agriculture modernization Introduction of new technologies and efficient delivery of water supply services

Focus Regional hydrometeorology and water information systems; Climate resilience; Regional coordination and capacity building; Knowledge Network and Youth Engagement, Regional Energy and Water Data Portal (web- based open access data), Landscape management

The three pillars of the Central Asia Water and Energy Program

Focus Energy security including infrastructure planning;

Energy trade;

Energy accountability;

Energy efficiency;

Hydropower development

With a number of regional projects and programs successfully underway, CAWEP has es-tablished important “building blocks”. These activities identify critical infrastructure, insti-tutional and analytical constraints, and help establish long-term priorities for the program.

CAWEP PATHWAYS TO ADDRESSING ENERGY-WATER LINKAGES2012 201620132010-2011 20172014 2018-20222015

Assessment of the role of gla-ciers in stream flow

ECA – Deep Dive – Turn Down the Heat

Implementation of the Knowledge Platform (Active)

TA for Developing WIS in CA (Active)

Central Asia Wa-ter Future Forum

& Expo

Workshop Strengthening

Analysis IWRM

Investments in Water

Information Systems (WIS)

National Consul-tations (EWL)

TA Preparation

CAHMP

Riparian Dialogue (Rogun Consultations)

Road Map Strengthening

Analysis IWRM

2nd CA Climate

Knowledge Forum

First CA Climate Knowledge

Forum

LEGEND

Central Asia Hydromet Modernization Project – CAHMP (Active)

CASA-1000 (Active)

Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Program for the Aral Sea Basin (CAMP4ASB) $27 m (Active)

CASA-1000 Dialogue Support (Active)

Investment Projects

Regional EventsTA

Partnerships are critical to the rational use of water and energy in Central AsiaRegional dialogue and cooperation are necessary to manage energy and water resources in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. CAWEP brings together na-tional and regional governments, civil society organizations and youth, as well as bilateral development partners, international organization and financial institutions such as the World Bank.

The program is founded on partnerships with governments so that program activities reflect national aspirations and priorities. CAWEP welcomes cooperation among the development and financing commu-nities to meet program goals, collaborate on methodologies, provide technical assistance, or contribute funds for core program activities.

A Multi-Donor Trust Fund, managed by the World Bank, was estab-lished in 2009 to help the Central Asian republics better address the energy-water nexus challenges. The third financing phase will be implemented between January 2018 and December 2022. The third phase financiers include the European Union (EURO 7 million), Switzer-land (US$ 3.5 million) and the United Kingdom through DFID (US$ 1 million) for a total program amount of around US$ 12.7 million dollars. An Advisory Committee of the Fund provides strategic guidance to program. CAWEP has worked jointly with other development partners on specific activities and projects, in both water and energy, includ-ing the Swiss Development Corporation (SDC), the United Nations Centre for Preventive Diplomacy (UNRCCA), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Islamic Development Bank (IsDB), the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Economic Com-mission for Europe (UNECE), Germany (GIZ), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the Aga Khan Foundation.

The World Bank welcomes other potential partners to support liveli-hoods, economic growth and climate resilience in this important region of the world.

© Andrei Shevelov, Almaty, Kazakhstan

For further information, please contact:William Young, CAWEP Program Manager, World Bank, wyoung@worldbank.org; Togzhan Alibekova, CAWEP Field-Based Liaison Officer, World Bank, talibekova@worldbank.org