Water Forecast: What South-Central U.S. Natural Resource

Managers Should Expect in the Coming Years

Steven McNulty, Ph.D. Research Ecologist

USDA Forest Service EFETAC

Raleigh, NC Steve_mcnulty@ncsu.edu

August 7, 2012

Take Home Point # 1

Drought and Wet Periods are Cyclical

400 Year Record

Cook and Krusic NA Drought Atlas

Take Home Point # 2

The Cycle is becoming more extreme

Cook and Krusic NA Drought Atlas

200 Year Record

Take Home Point # 3

Some parts of the cycle are not expected to shift

Dallas Projected precipitation through 21st Century

Take Home Point # 4

Some parts of the cycle are expected to shift

Dallas projected air through 21st Century

Shameless plug alert #1

USDA Forest Service – Threat Assessment Centers

Steve McNulty (PI)Emrys Treasure

Lisa JenningsJennifer Moore Myers

Robert HerringNancy Grulke

Lisa Balduman

USDA Forest Service – Southern Region

Chris Liggett (PI)David Meriwether

Paul Arndt

So what does this mean for water management?

Changes in Forest Water Yield

Current annual water flow

Change in flow due to climate change by 2050

Change in flow due to increased use by 2050

Change in annual flow due to increased impervious surface by 2050

Shameless plug alert # 2

Rangeland and forest management strategy for adapting water stress

Favor more drought, and fire tolerance species such long-leaf pine over more fire susceptible species such loblolly pine.

Decrease stand stocking level to reduce drought and insect impacts

Shorten rotation length to minimize the potential for disturbance caused forest volume loss

As stress progresses shift to grassland management

Increases in soil erosion and Stream sedimentation

due to increased energy/water holding capacity of the atmosphere leading to more intense rain events

Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events

(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)

Karl et al. 1996

BW 7

Increased soil erosion risk and stream sedimentation

Uwharrie National Forest

Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF

Management Strategy for Coping withIncreased Soil Erosion

Continue to encourage standard soil erosion control practices such as buffer strips, broad based dips, piling slash down slopeof skid trails and along stream channels

Relocate trails away from streams

Use bridge mats and culverts at stream crossings

Increased air temperature and little change in annual precipitation will result is less stream flow and surface water

Playa lakes in west Texas fill up after a heavy spring rain.

Increased soil erosion and reduced available water will likely cause a reduction in Playas

Increased soil erosion and decreased overall spring rains will likely lead to reduction in prairie potholes, and resting sites for water fowl

- Monitor for new sources of sedimentation (from areas that historically have not been points of erosion).

- Use traditional BMP’s and remediation practices to addressthese problem areas

- Continue to work with other interest groups (e.g. DuckUnlimited) to conserve remaining habitat and examine Opportunities to new habitat creation with shifting climatepatterns

Increased Hurricane Occurrence and Severity

Naturally cyclical, and the southern US is headed into a natural increase in hurricane activity

Hurricanes per Year

Increased Hurricane Occurrence and Severity

Naturally cyclical, and the southern US is headed into a natural increase in hurricane activity

Ocean water temperatures are rising

Warming waters provide more energy for storms

Management Strategy for Coping withIncreased Hurricane Activity and Intensity

Plant or encourage regeneration of more wind resistant long-leaf pine over Loblolly pine

Look to establish ready markets for salvaged wood (lessthan 10% is currently recovered) to reduce increase insectand fire outbreaks associated with increased debris volume

Consider shortening the rotation length to minimize the potential for catastrophic loss due to hurricanes

Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Rise

Glacial Melting and thermal expansion of ocean water will cause sea levels to rise

Management Options to Slow Coastal Loss

Encourage Mangrove and other coast vegetation that will buffer the shoreline from extreme wave events

Maintain coastal marsh, and barrier island areas

Respected Republican leaders like Govs. John Kasich of Ohio and Chris Christie of New Jersey have spoken out about the reality of climate change. Rupert Murdoch's recent tweet—"Climate change very slow but real. So far all cures worse than disease."—may reflect an emerging conservative view. Even Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, during public comments in June, conceded the reality of climate change while offering assurances that "there will be an engineering solution" and "we'll adapt."

Fred Krupp: A New Climate-Change ConsensusIt's time for conservatives to compete with liberals to devise the best, most cost-effective climate change solution 

WSJ August 6, 2012

Water Talk “Conclusion”