Water, Growth and Stability

Background document for the REC’s World Café 2016 at WWW2016

R. Laušević • V. Vassilev A. Kis • F. Abdulla • S. Milutinović

August 2016

The World Café at World Water Week 2016 brings together representa-

tives of central and local governments, regional bodies, NGOs, academia

and businesses from the region for lively discussions in a pleasant

atmosphere, following up on the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Focus opening session themes. Participants at the event divided into

three working groups. The present background document comprises

three articles prepared by experts to address the topics of the three

working groups: Governing water for sustainable growth (Group 1);

Water-related climate change mitigation and adaptation measures for

sustainable growth (Group 2); and Water security action planning for

sustainable growth (Group 3).

Water, Growth and StabilityBackground document

for the REC’s World Café 2016 at WWW2016

R. Laušević • V. Vassilev A. Kis • F. Abdulla • S. Milutinović

Regional Environmental CenterSzentendre • Hungary

August 2016

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

Editor: Dr.RadojeLaušević,RegionalEnvironmentalCenter(REC)Contributingauthors: VentzislavVassilev,REC AndrásKis,RegionálisEnergiagazdaságiKutatóközpont(REKK) Prof.Dr.FayezAbdulla,JordanUniversityofScienceandTechnology Prof.SlobodanMilutinović,UniversityofNiš,Serbia Dr.RadojeLaušević,RECCopyeditor: RachelHideg,RECCoverdesign: TriciaBarna,RECPleasecitethispublicationas:R.Laušević,V.Vassilev,A.Kis,F.AbdullaandS.Milutinović(2016).Water,GrowthandStability.BackgrounddocumentfortheREC’sWorldCafé2016atWWW2016.RegionalEnvironmentalCenter,Szentendre,Hungary.ISBN978-963-9638-71-6ThisdocumentwasproducedundertheWATERSUMproject,implementedbytheRegionalEnvironmentalCenterandfundedbytheSwedishInternationalDevelopmentCooperationAgency(Sida).TheanalysisandpolicyrecommendationscontainedinthisreportdonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheRECorofSida.Copyright©2016RegionalEnvironmentalCenter2000Szentendre,AdyEndreut9-11,HungaryAllrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystemortransmittedinanyformorbyanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,recordingorotherwise,withoutpriorpermissionoftheREC.

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ContentsWater,GrowthandStability...................................................................................................................5

Introduction........................................................................................................................................5

1. GoverningWaterforSustainableGrowth.......................................................................................7

Introduction........................................................................................................................................7

WatergovernanceperspectivesintheMENAregion.........................................................................7

Sustainabledevelopmentgoalonwaterandsanitation.....................................................................8

LegalandinstitutionalaspectsofIWRM.............................................................................................9

Regionalcooperationinitiativesonwaterissues..............................................................................10

Stakeholderinvolvementinwatergovernance................................................................................11

Summaryofwatermanagementissues............................................................................................12

Waterdemandmanagement........................................................................................................12

Mobilisationofwaterresourcesandwatersupply.......................................................................13

Preservationandprotectionofwaterresources..........................................................................13

Naturalhazardsassociatedwithfloodsanddroughts..................................................................13

Regulatoryandinstitutionalreforms............................................................................................13

Modernisationofinformationsystemsandmonitoringnetworks...............................................13

Capacitybuilding...........................................................................................................................14

Researchanddevelopment...........................................................................................................14

Regionalcooperation....................................................................................................................14

Knowledgedevelopmentandcapacitybuilding...............................................................................14

Knowledgeandpracticesrelatedtowaterdemandmanagement...............................................14

Technologytransferforthemobilisationofwaterresources.......................................................15

Researchanddataforwaterresourcesprotection.......................................................................15

Increasedcapacityonsocio-politicalaspectsofIWRM.................................................................15

Researchanddatamanagementonclimatechangeimpacts.......................................................15

2. Water-RelatedClimateChangeMitigationandAdaptationMeasuresforSustainableGrowth...16

Introduction......................................................................................................................................16

Arabcountries’contributiontoGHGemissions................................................................................17

ClimatetrendsinthewadisystemsintheArabregion....................................................................18

ClimatictrendsAlMashrekregion................................................................................................20

ClimatictrendsintheAlMaghrebregion.....................................................................................22

ClimatictrendsintheNileBasinRegion........................................................................................22

ClimatictrendsintheArabianPeninsula......................................................................................23

ClimatictrendsintheSahelcountries...........................................................................................23

ProjectedclimatechangeintheArabregion....................................................................................24

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ClimatechangeriskstosurfacewaterresourcesintheArabregion................................................25

ClimatechangeriskstogroundwaterresourcesintheArabregion.................................................27

ClimatechangeadaptationandmitigationintheArabregion.........................................................28

Adaptationmeasuresforthewaterresourcessector...................................................................30

TowardstrategiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeinArabcountries........................................36

Conclusions.......................................................................................................................................38

3. WaterSecurityActionPlanningforSustainableGrowth..............................................................39

Watersecurity–AburningissuefortheMENAregion....................................................................39

WhyareMENAcountriesvulnerabletowaterinsecurity?...........................................................40

Water security in the post-2015 development agenda: How can theMENAWater, Growth andStabilityInitiativecontribute?...........................................................................................................41

SDG6:Cleanwaterandsanitation................................................................................................43

SDG11:Sustainablecitiesandcommunities................................................................................43

SDG12:Responsibleconsumptionandproduction......................................................................44

SDG3:Goodhealthandwell-being..............................................................................................44

SDG8:Decentworkandeconomicgrowth...................................................................................44

SDG13:Climateaction..................................................................................................................44

SDG16:Peace,justiceandstronginstitutions..............................................................................45

SDG5:Genderequality.................................................................................................................45

Localwatersecurityactionplans–AwaytomoveforwardinMENAcountries..............................45

ThelocalwatersecurityplanningprocessinJordanandTunisia–Experiencesofar......................46

References.........................................................................................................................................48

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Water,GrowthandStabilityBackgrounddocumentfortheREC’sWorldCafé2016atWWW2016

IntroductionInresponsetotherapiddepletionofwaterresources,deteriorationinwaterquality,increasedwaterdemand,andchangesinwaterendowmentsthatareaffectingenvironmentalquality,foodsecurity,municipal infrastructureandeconomicdevelopmentinmostsocietiesintheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica (MENA), theRegional EnvironmentalCenter (REC,www.rec.org) is implementing theproject“SustainableUseofTransboundaryWaterResourcesandWaterSecurityManagement”(WATERSUM)(www.watersum.rec.org).TheprojectisfundedbytheGovernmentofSweden(SwedishInternationalDevelopment Cooperation Agency [Sida], contribution ID 52030234) and is being implementedbetweenApril2014andApril2017.

The overall objective of the project is to promote and enhance sustainable water resourcesmanagementandtofosteracomprehensiveandintegratedapproachtowatersecurityandecosystemservicesforsustainabledevelopmentinbeneficiarycountriesintheMENAregioninordertohelphaltthedownwardspiralofpoverty,biodiversitylossandenvironmentaldegradation.

The project is divided into two components: “Water Resources Management Good Practices andKnowledgeTransfer” (WaterPOrT);and“WaterandSecurity” (WaSe).Thegoalof theWaterPOrTcomponentistoacceleratethemoresustainableuseoftheregion’swaterresourcesandtopromotea strategic approach to climate change adaptation. The WaSe component aims to foster acomprehensive and integrated approach to water security and ecosystem services for sustainabledevelopmentineightselectedadministrativeterritoriesinJordanandTunisia.TheWaSecomponentisapartofeffortstocombatwaterscarcityandincreaseoverallhumanwell-beingwithinthewidercontextofensuringregionalpeaceandstability.

Twomainresultsareenvisaged:

• Increased capacities on the part of the respective national authorities to apply anintegrated water resourcesmanagement (IWRM) approach; a framework for commonunderstandingpromotedamongwaterpractitionersandstakeholdersregardingtheneedforcooperationandaregionalapproachtomanagingwaterproblems;andstrengthenedabilitiesamongpractitionersfordealingwiththeimpactsofclimatechangeontheregion’swaterresources(WATERPOrTcomponent).

• Theprocessofintroducinganddraftinglocalwatersecurityactionplans(LWSAPs)initiatedand supported in target administrative territories in Jordan and Tunisia, while partnercommunities work jointly towards sustainable development; and local environmentalgovernanceinpartnercountriesbenefitingfromtheLWSAPconcept(WaSecomponent).

Oneof themajoroutputsof theWATERSUMproject is theWater,GrowthandStability Initiative(WGSIni),aframeworkforthecreationofaknowledge-basedplatform;adynamicnetworkofwaterexperts; andane-learning tool for capacitybuildingand thedisseminationof lessons learned.TheWGSIniwaslaunchedinApril2016asanoutputofthemulti-stakeholderconference“Water,GrowthandStability:TransboundaryWaterCooperationforSustainableGrowthandStabilityinMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)”undertheframeworkoftheWATERSUMproject.

TheWGSIni contributes to theMENA Focus component ofWorldWaterWeek 2016 by exploringsolutionstothewatercrisisintheMENAregion,promotingwatergovernanceforsustainablegrowth,

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raisingawarenessof theSDGs through theArabMDG+ Initiative,andorganising theevent “MENAFocus:WorldCafé2016/Water,Growth,Stability”(http://wgsini.rec.org/worldwaterweek2016).

TheWorldCafé2016atWWW2016bringstogetherrepresentativesofcentralandlocalgovernments,regionalbodies,NGOs,academiaandbusinessesfromtheregionforlivelydiscussionsinapleasantatmosphere,closelyechoingandfollowingupontheMENAFocusopeningsessionthemes. Usingamodified World Café Method (www.theworldcafe.com/method.html), this event(http://programme.worldwaterweek.org/event/6008)willkickoffwithabriefplenarysession,duringwhichdiscussiontopicswillbeoutlinedandparticipantsdividedintothreeworkinggroups.

Thepresentbackgrounddocumentcomprisesthreearticlespreparedbyexpertsandaddressingthetopicsofthethreeworkinggroups:Governingwaterforsustainablegrowth(Group1);Water-relatedclimate changemitigation and adaptationmeasures for sustainable growth (Group 2); andWatersecurity action planning for sustainable growth (Group 3). The event will bring together leadersrepresentingcentralandlocalgovernments,regionalbodies,NGOs,academiaandbusinessesfromtheregion. Theworking groupswill rotate at intervals of 25, 20 and15minutes,while facilitatorswillremainintherespectiveareaduringtheentireprocessandlatersupportthesummaryofoutcomes.Expecteddiscussionoutputsare:howMENAcountriescancontributetotheimplementationofthewater-relatedSDGsandthenewclimateagreement;howMENAcountriescanaddresscross-cuttingissuesincludingmigration,gender,youthandhumanrights;andhowwater-relatedsecurityissuescanbeaddressedmostefficiently.

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1. GoverningWaterforSustainableGrowthMENAWaterWorldCafé2016BackgroundPaper,WorkingGroup1

VentzislavVassilev,RegionalEnvironmentalCenter(REC)AndrásKis,RegionálisEnergiagazdaságiKutatóközpont(REKK)

IntroductionTheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region,stretchingeastwardsfromMoroccoacrossnorthernAfricatothePersianGulf,andfromTurkeyinthenorthtoYemenandOman,isfacingtheoverarchingwater-relatedproblemofwaterquantity:Waterisascarceresource.However,waterqualityisalsoemergingasanimportantissueandisofgrowingconcerntothepublic.Besidesposingthreatsofitsown, climate change will act as a multiplier of already existing stresses and further affect wateravailabilityandquality.Keycharacteristic features in theregionare thatwater resourcesareoftensharedbetweentwoormorenations,andthereisheavyrelianceongroundwaterresources.

Waterpolicyandwateravailabilityareconsideredcentraldeterminantsofthefuturewell-beingoftheregion.Cooperationwithrespecttoregional/transboundarywaterresourcesispoliticallysensitiveandcloselyconnectedtoongoingconflicts intheregion.Onatechnical level, therearevariousongoingcooperationinitiativesthatcanstimulatepoliticalrapprochement.Thecapacityofcountriestomanagetheregion’swaterresourcesmoreefficientlybyusingthe integratedwaterresourcesmanagement(IWRM) approach is a decisive factor for future development. Greater regional cooperation anddialogueonwaterissuescaninfluencenationalwatermanagement,andviceversa,andcanhelptobringpeacefuldevelopmenttotheregion.

Despiteconditionsofwaterscarcityandthedramaticshrinkageofnaturalfreshwaterresourcespercapita in recent decades, MENA countries have made progress in providing improved water andsanitationtotheirpopulations.Numerousinvestmentprojectshavesignificantlyimprovedaccesstowaterandsanitationinurbanareas.AccessisatnearlyuniversallevelsinJordan,Lebanon,MoroccoandTunisia,andatahighlevelinEgypt,Algeria,LibyaandSyria(Milutinovic2015).Atthesametime,the recent political instabilities and conflicts in some countries have resulted in serious watermanagementchallenges,suchasthecollapseofwatersupplyoperationsinconflictareas,andabiginfluxofrefugeestoneighbouringcountries.

WatergovernanceperspectivesintheMENAregionWatergovernanceisdefinedbythepolitical,social,economicandadministrativesystemsthatareinplace, and which directly or indirectly affect the use, development and management of waterresourcesandthedeliveryofwaterservicesatdifferentlevelsofsociety.Importantly,thewatersectorispartofbroader social,politicalandeconomicdevelopmentsand is thusalsoaffectedbyoutsidedecisions(UNDP,SIWI2013).Goodwatergovernanceshouldensureamixofpolicies,principlesandtoolssuchaswaterdiplomacy;regional,transboundaryandcross-bordercooperation;integratedriverbasin planning and management; climate adaptation; public participation; accountability;transparency;subsidiarity;andappropriatedecentralisation.

Water governance issues in theMENA region are varied, but generally shared by countries in theregion.Thekeyissuescanbegroupedasfollows:insufficientinstitutionalskillsinapplyingtheIWRMapproachandinadaptationtoclimatechange;insufficientunderstandingofhowpolicyinstrumentsforwatermanagementcanaffecttheeconomyandgrowth;limitedapplicationofaholisticapproachinwaterpolicies,multi-sectoralinvolvementandthecoordinationofrolesandresponsibilities;socialsensitivityregardingwaterallocationbetweeneconomicsectors;hesitanttransboundarycooperation

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forpromotingthesustainableandequitabledevelopmentofasharedwatercourse;andunsatisfactorycooperation,jointresearchactionsandknowledgesharing.

To overcome these challenges,many countries are in the process of restructuring the institutionsinvolvedinwaterandenvironmentalgovernance,introducingstakeholderinvolvementpractices,anddecentralisingthewatersector.Inrecentyears,significantprogresshasbeenmadeintheregionintermsofimprovedregional/transboundarycooperation.

TheimportanceofIWRMforpromotingcoordination,consolidationandintegrationintheregionwashighlightedamong the conclusionsof the thirdArabWaterForum. Integration inparticular shouldinvolveallsectorsrelyingonwaterandensurestrongerstakeholderengagementandcommunicationaswellasenhancedwateruseefficiencymethodsinirrigationandfinancingpoliciesatnationalscale.

SustainabledevelopmentgoalonwaterandsanitationAccordingtotheofficialMillenniumDevelopmentGoalsReportpublishedin2014,Target7Ctohalvetheproportionofpeoplewithoutaccess toan improveddrinkingwater sourcehasbeenachieved.Notwithstanding the importanceof achieving theoverall target, significant regional disparities andstarkvariationsbetweenurbanandruralareas,aswellasthelargenumberofpeoplestillrelyingonunsafewatersources,areevidenceoftheneedtoensurethatadditionalactionsbedirectedtowardsthoseuntouchedbyameliorationstodate.However,thetargetofimprovingbasicsanitation,includingaccesstolatrinesandhygienicwastecollection,isnotontrackandrequiressoundercommitmentinordertoberecalibratedandhopefullymetinthecomingyears.

TheSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs),adoptedattheUnitedNationsSustainableDevelopmentSummitonSeptember25,2015,buildontheexperienceandlessonslearnedfromtheearlierMDGs.SustainableDevelopmentGoal6:“Cleanwaterandsanitation”containsthefollowingtargets:

• By2030,achieveuniversalandequitableaccesstosafeandaffordabledrinkingwaterforall.• By2030,achieveaccesstoadequateandequitablesanitationandhygieneforallandendopen

defecation,payingspecialattentiontotheneedsofwomenandgirlsandthoseinvulnerablesituations.

• By2030,improvewaterqualitybyreducingpollution,eliminatingdumpingandminimisingthereleaseofhazardouschemicalsandmaterials,halvingtheproportionofuntreatedwastewaterandsubstantiallyincreasingrecyclingandsafereuseglobally.

• By2030,substantiallyincreasewater-useefficiencyacrossallsectorsandensuresustainablewithdrawalsandsupplyoffreshwatertoaddresswaterscarcityandsubstantiallyreducethenumberofpeoplesufferingfromwaterscarcity.

• By 2030, implement IWRM at all levels, including through transboundary cooperation asappropriate.

• By 2020, protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests,wetlands,rivers,aquifersandlakes.

• By 2030, expand international cooperation and capacity-building support to developingcountries in water- and sanitation-related activities and programmes, including waterharvesting, desalination, water efficiency, wastewater treatment, recycling and reusetechnologies.

• Support and strengthen the participation of local communities in improving water andsanitationmanagement.

Waterisakeyaspectofmanyofthe17SDGs(1,3,4,11,12,14and15containanexplicitreferencetowater;and2,5,7,8,9,10and13containanimplicitreferencetowater),sincewaterformsthe

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basisof lifeonearth, is vital for socioeconomicdevelopment, is essential forbiodiversity, and is afundamentalhumanright.

TheMENAregionisattheforefrontofthemultiple,mostlynoxious,effectsandimpactsderivingfromwater-related issues. Sustainable Development Goal 6 encompasses several provisions that, ifultimatelyapproved,mayassistinboostingtheregion’sdevelopmentandresilience.

LegalandinstitutionalaspectsofIWRMTheadministrativestructuresandlegislationforwatergovernancevaryfromcountrytocountryandthereisnocommonwatergovernancemodelfortheregion.Toencouragebettermanagementandconservation,many countries have shared responsibilities forwatermanagementbetween severalministries, while engaging water stakeholders at various levels of governance. Consequently,improvingrelationshipsbetweencompetentauthoritiesandstakeholdersatalllevelsofgovernance,strengtheningdemocracyandcombatingpovertyremainhigh-priorityissuesintheregion.

In Jordan, three government agencies are involved in the management of the water sector: theMinistryofWaterand Irrigation(MoWI),withtheWaterAuthorityof Jordan(WAJ)andtheJordanValleyAuthority(JVA)underitsumbrella.Thetwoauthoritiesareheadedbysecretariesgeneral,whoreport to theministerofwater and irrigation. In addition, theMinistryof Environment (MoE)wasestablishedin2003,andhasatechnicaldivisiononwaterquality.Anoverallvisionandstrategyforwaterandenvironment structures for regional cooperation is largely inplace. TheWater Strategy,formallyadopted inMay1997, takesan integratedapproachtowatermanagementandgiveshighprioritytotheresourcevalueofreclaimedwater.Anewstrategy,“WaterforLife”,coverstheperiod2008–2022.TheNationalWaterMasterPlan,adoptedin2004,analysesfuturewater-usedemandandassessesconsolidatedsupplymeasuresagainstfuturedemandneeds.

InTunisia,mostofthetasksrelatedtowatermanagementfallundertheMinistryofAgricultureandHydraulicResources,andwithinthistherearevariousdepartments(morethan10generaldirectoratesand other organisations) dealing with water exploitation for different purposes, conservation, themanagement of dams, and research and development. In 2003, the Ministry of Agriculture andHydraulicResourcespublishedtheWaterMasterPlanforthewatersector.Twomainstrategicoptionswereidentifiedandimplemented:a10-yearstrategyforwaterresourcesmobilisation(2001–2011),initiatedforthefirsttimein1990;andalong-termstrategy(to2030).Apracticaldroughtguidancedocumentwaselaborated in1999with theaimof informingdifferentusergroupsand institutionsaboutappropriatemeasures for impactalleviationandmitigation.TheWaterCode (1975) setsoutprovisionsonwaterquality,andisreinforcedbyLawNo.95-73ofJuly24,1995,onthePublicMaritimeDomain;andLawNo.95-70ofJuly17,1995,onWaterandSoilConservation.

InEgypt,theMinistryofWaterResourcesandIrrigation(MoWRI)ismandatedtoachievetheoptimaluseofwaterwhilemeetingtheneedsofallsectorsintermsofbothquantityandquality.TechnicaladviceisprovidedtotheministrybytheNationalWaterResearchCentre.TheMinistryofAgricultureandLandReclamation (MoALR)develops theoverallpolicies foragriculture (includingaquaculture)and land reclamation. The Ministry of State for Environmental Affairs is mandated to formulateenvironmentalpolicyandthenecessaryplansfortheprotectionoftheenvironment.TheMinistryofHousing,UtilitiesandUrbanCommunities (MHUUC)covers thewholesectorofdrinkingwaterandwastewater.Severalsectorallawsanddecreesgovernwaterinthreemainsectors:waterresources;environment; and water protection, wastewater management and wastewater reuse. TheGovernmentof Egypthas introduced legislation toprotect thequality of freshwater. Law27/1978regulateswaterresourcesandthetreatmentofwater.EnvironmentalLawNo.4/1994protectstheenvironment inEgypt ingeneral,whileLawNo.48/1982andDecree8/1993,amendedbyLawNo.

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9/2009,dealwiththepollutionofallwatersourcesinEgyptandsetsstandardsforthedischargeofliquidwastetofreshwater.Specificlawsonirrigation(LawNo.12/1984andLawNo.213/1994)definetheuseandmanagementofpublicandprivatesectorirrigationanddrainagesystems.

InMorocco,theSecretariatofWaterandtheEnvironmentisthemaininstitutionresponsibleforwatermanagement. Among its responsibilities are water resources assessment, monitoring, transfer,management,security,capacitybuilding,andresearchanddevelopment.TheNationalMeteorologicalDirectorate is responsible for the elaboration and implementation of government policy forwaterresources planning, mobilisation, management and preservation, and the management andmaintenance of large hydraulic infrastructure. Other departments are in charge of providinginformation and technical assistance in the area of meteorology for the hydraulics, agriculture,aeronauticsandmaritimesectors.HydrologicalbasinagencieswerecreatedbytheWaterLaw(1995)foreachoftheninemainrivercatchmentsinthecountry.Thesepublicorganisationsareinchargeofwater resourcesmanagement in eachbasin and their tasks and responsibilities include theproperimplementation of water management plans; the enforcement of water rights; the provision offinancialandtechnologicalassistancetoprivateoperators;watermonitoring;andstudiesonwaterresourcesprotectionandfloodcontrol.

RegionalcooperationinitiativesonwaterissuesAnumberof initiatives andorganisations havebeenestablished to promote regional cooperation,transferknow-how,andensurepoliticalsupportfortheimprovementofwatergovernance.

TheArabWaterCouncil,establishedin2004asanon-profitregionalorganisation,promotesthewateragendaintheMENAregion.

TheGlobalWaterPartnershipMediterranean(GWP-Med),establishedin2002,istheMediterraneanbranchoftheGlobalWaterPartnership(GWP).Aimingforawater-secureMediterranean,GWP-Medpromotesaction,demoapplicationandknowledgeexchangeon IWRM,and the sustainableuseofwaterresourcesintheregion.

TheUnion for theMediterranean, a multilateral partnership aiming to increase the potential forregional integrationandcohesionamongEuro-Mediterraneancountries,promotesa specificwateragendadesignedaroundthefourpillarsofwatergovernance,waterandclimatechangeadaptation,waterdemandmanagementandwaterfinancing.

TheArabMinisterialCouncilforWater,establishedin2008withintheLeagueofArabStates,adoptedtheStrategyforWaterSecurity intheArabRegionin2010.Thestrategy,focusingontherun-upto2030, identifies regionalpriority actions toensurewater security across the region centredon theprinciplesofIWRM.

The Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) embraced the OIC Water Vision in 2012. Thiscomprehensivedocumentprovidesaframeworkforpromotingcooperationforawater-securefuturethrough increased interaction,theexchangeofbestpractices,knowledgesharing,capacitybuildingandthedevelopmentofexpertiseinvariouswater-relateddisciplines.TheOICalsosupportsresearchandcapacity-buildingprogrammescentredonregionalwaterissuesthroughitssubsidiaryorgan,theStatistical,EconomicandSocialResearchandTrainingCentreforIslamicCountries(SESRIC).

TheRegionalOfficeforWestAsiaoftheUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP/ROWA)andthe United Nations Economic and Social Commission forWestern Asia (UN-ESCWA) contribute toraising awareness and enhancing response capacities regionally through studies, capacity-buildingactivitiesandtrainingsfocusingonclimatechangeandsharedIWRM.

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TheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment(OECD)isalsoactivelycontributingtowater-relatedmattersacrosstheMENAregionthroughitsMENA-OECDGovernanceProgrammeanditsProgrammeonWaterGovernance.

TheWater,Growthand Stability Initiative (WGSIni)was launched at the firstWater,Growth andStabilityconference,whichtookplaceonApril26–28,2016,inSzentendre,Hungary,co-organisedbytheRegionalEnvironmentalCenter(REC)andtheMinistryofForeignAffairsandTradeofHungaryasapre-eventtotheBudapestWaterSummit2016.

StakeholderinvolvementinwatergovernanceParticipatoryprocessessupportahigh-quality,moreinformeddecision-makingprocess,asdecisionsreflecttheviewsandresponsesofstakeholders.Theparticipationofstakeholderscanhelptolegitimisedecisions,andtoresolveconflictsandbuildtrustamongwaterusers.Participatoryapproachesarealsohelpfulininformingpolicymakersaboutrelevantfeedbackfromstakeholderswhowillbeaffectedbydecisions(Kessler2004).

Stakeholders’ interests may be environmental, economic, social, cultural, recreational, religious,geographical or other, and may be either legally or otherwise defined. In the broader sense,stakeholders may be additionally defined as those having some influence on the outcome of thedecisionmaking, or some expertise, knowledge, experience, information or activities thatmay beusefulinthedecision-makingprocess.

Themaincategoriesofstakeholdersare:1.publicauthoritiesandagencies;2.wateruserassociationsandcooperatives;3.civilsociety;4.theprivatesector;5.thescientificandresearchcommunity;and6.internationalorganisations,donorsandnetworks.

Theleadingroleofnationalwaterauthorities(ministriesandstateagencies)inthedevelopmentandenforcementofwaterpoliciesiscommontoallMENAcountries.Watersupplyandsanitationservicesarepredominantlystateownedandoperated.The involvementoftheprivatesector isstill limited,althoughaccordingtothewatersectorstrategiesofseveralcountriesthereareplanstoincreaseitsrole.

Wateruserassociations (or irrigationcooperatives)arecooperativebodiesthatareresponsibleforthemaintenanceofthewatersupplyandirrigationinfrastructureinruralareas.SuchassociationsarecommoninmanyArabcountriesandarebasedontraditionalpractices.

The roleofcivil societyorganisations (CSOs,NGOs) in theenvironmentaldomainhas increased inrecentyearsasaresultofthedemocratictransformations.Inmostcases,however,CSOsdonothaveadequatetechnicalcapacityandknowledgetobeequallypresentintheformulationofnationalwaterpolicies.

Theprivatesectorisexpectedtoplayanincreasedroleinwatermanagementwiththeprivatisationof water services, the introduction of new public-private business models, and the increasedvalorisationofwateruses.

ScientificandresearchorganisationsintheregionareparticularlyimportantforbothlocalR&Dandtheadaptationofbestavailabletechnologiestotheregionalandcountry-specificconditions.

International organisations, donors and networks provide the environment for regional dialogue,capacitybuildingandknowledgetransfer.

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SummaryofwatermanagementissuesWater management is a complex topic that includes, for example, the planning, development,distributionandmanagementofwateruses; thedevelopmentofpolicies and regulations; and theprotectionofthequalityandquantityofwaterresources.BasedonthereviewofstrategicandplanningdocumentsforthewatersectorinvariousMENAcountries,themainwatermanagementissuescanbegroupedaccordingtothecategoriesoutlinedbelow.

WaterdemandmanagementGiventhegeneralscarcityofwaterintheregion,waterdemandmanagementandwaterconservationplayacrucialroleinachievingthesustainableuseoffreshwaterresources.Demandmanagementaimsattheefficientutilisationandminimumwasteofwater,andatthepromotionofwaterconservationatwateruser level inorder tobridgethegapbetweensupplyanddemandandadvanceeconomicgrowthandsocialdevelopment.Waterdemandchallengesareenormous,especiallyinregionswithunexpectedpopulationgrowthduetoconflictsandpoliticalinstability.

Waterisanessentialinputtomosteconomicactivities(especiallyagriculture,butalsomanyindustriessuchasenergygeneration,thefoodindustryandmanufacturing),anditisalsothefoundationofthewell-being of the population. Expanding the supply of water has natural as well as economiclimitations: there isa finite—and inmany locationsdeclining—volumeofwateravailable to thecountries of theMENA region. Decisionmakers often face the uncomfortable question of how toallocatealimitedvolumeofwateramongagrowingnumberofwaterconsumers.

Therearesomeanswersthatareattractiveinprinciplebutdifficulttoimplementinpractice.ThefirstchallengesfacingpolicymakerswithintheMENAregionaretoensuresufficientwatertosatisfythebasicneedsofhouseholds;provideadditionalwatertocitiesatanincreasingblockrateinordertogiveincentives to save water; and, with respect to economic activities, allocate water for the mosteconomicuses—thatis,toeconomicactivitiesthatgeneratethemostoutputpercubicmetreofwaterused.

Thisvisionmakessense,butitposesabigchallengeintermsofimplementation.First,thebasicneedsofthepopulationshouldbedefined:verysimply,whatistheminimumamountofwatertobesuppliedtoeachhouseholdatanaffordablerate?Whatabouthouseholdsofdifferentsizes?Dowehavesuchinformation,andcanwe tailor the tariff systemtobecompatiblewithhousehold size?Oncebasicneedsaresatisfied,whichtarifflevelshouldbeappliedforfurtherconsumption?

Afterquestionsrelatedtowatersupplytohouseholdshavebeenresolvedinasatisfactorymanner,anevenmoredifficultquestionarises:Onwhatbasis,andhow,shouldwaterbereallocatedtowardsthemosteconomicallyproductiveuses?Therearenoreadilyavailablefiguresonthevalueofwaterinaneconomicactivity,thustheauthoritiesmakingwaterallocationchoicesdonothaveagoodbasisformakingsuchdecisions.Itispossibletocreatemechanismsthatrevealthevalueofwaterfordifferentsectors(suchasauctions,watermarkets,orobservingthereactionsofwateruserstodifferentlevelsofwater tariffs), but how acceptable are these instruments in a given society? And even if policymakersarecertainthattheyaremakingajustifiedreallocationofwatertoamoreeconomicuse,thepositionoftheproducersinsomesectorswillbeseverelyhurt,jobswillberelocated,andforsomepeopletheirwayoflifewillchangeasaresultofadaptation.Aretheseactorstobecompensated?Inwhatformandtowhatdegree?

Therationaleofwaterreallocationshouldalsoconsiderotherfactorssuchasfoodsecurityandruralemployment,migration, and distinguishing betweendifferent subsectorswithin agriculture. In thisregard, smart policies need to be developed to make transition a smooth and gradual process:

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providingtime,resourcesandinformationtowateruserstoachieveanewlevelofwatersaving,whilemakingsurethatthereareincentivesinothersectorstousethereallocatedwaterinanefficientway.

MobilisationofwaterresourcesandwatersupplyAgrowingpopulationandeconomicdevelopmentinthecountriesoftheMENAregionisresultinginincreaseddemandandtheneedtomobilisetothemaximumnaturalfreshwater.Manystrategiesandmeasureshavebeenimplementedinordertoalleviateandovercomewatershortage,includingtheconstructionoflargeandsmalldams,wells,canalsandotherhydraulicstructures.Insomecountries(e.g.Tunisia),themobilisationofavailablewaterresourcesexceeds90percent.Groundwaterisbeingexploitedataratethatexceedstherechargerate,whichcreatesaseriousrisktowatersupplyinthefuture. Long-distancewater conveyanceand theuseofnon-conventional resourcesarealternativewaystoincreasewatersupply,butatfarhigherfinancialandenvironmentalcost.

PreservationandprotectionofwaterresourcesAlthoughwaterscarcityisthemainproblemintheregion,waterqualityhasalsobecomeanissueofconcerninrecentyears.Industrial,urbanandagriculturalpollution,combinedwithadeclineinnaturalecosystems and the impacts of climate change, have resulted in a global trend towards thedeterioration of water quality. Quantity and quality issues are also greatly interconnected. Theabstraction of water from surface water and groundwater bodies, for example, increases theconcentrationofpollutantsandsalinity,anddamagetonaturalwaterecosystemsreducestheirself-purificationcapacity.

NaturalhazardsassociatedwithfloodsanddroughtsNaturaldisasters,acceleratedbyclimatechange,aredifficulttopredictandresultinincreasingsocial,economicandenvironmental impacts. In spiteof the traditional knowledgeofpeople living inaridregions, unpredicted long periods of drought may cause devastating water shortages for thepopulation, agriculture and industry. Although floods are not common in the region, the recenttorrentialfloodsinMoroccoandTunisia,andlocalcasesinJordan,showthatgreaterattentionandamoreintegratedapproachareneededwithrespecttothisnaturalphenomenon.

Preventionandresponsemeasuresmayincludemonitoringandforecastsystems,structuralmeasures,thedevelopmentofemergencyplans,andfinancialmechanismssuchasinsuranceandnaturaldisasterfunds.

RegulatoryandinstitutionalreformsInstitutionalandregulatoryframeworksarethesubjectofrevisionandimprovementinanumberofcountries,asstipulatedintheirrecentwaterstrategies.Thepresentstructureofthewatersectorinmost MENA counties is characterised by a predominantly administrative approach, with thedistributionof responsibilities between severalministriesor agencies and sometimesdifficulties incoordination.Theneedfornewbusinessmodelswithprivatesectorparticipationisclearlyrecognised.

ModernisationofinformationsystemsandmonitoringnetworksSignificantstepstowardsthedevelopmentofnationalwaterinformationsystemshavebeenmadeinmanycountries,andtherapidintroductionofcontemporaryITsolutionshasbeennotableinthelastdecade. However, access to information and the exchange and consolidation of data betweenresponsibleinstitutionsinonecountry,andbetweenneighbouringcountries,areoftenmissing.

Existingmonitoringsystemsarefocusedonwaterquantityandbasicqualityparameters,butthereisinsufficientcapacitytointroducethecomprehensivemonitoringoftheecologicalstatusofwaters.

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CapacitybuildingStateinstitutions,organisationsandindividualshavevariousrolesinwatermanagementthatrequirespecific technicalandadministrativecapacities. Insufficient institutionalskills inapplyingthe IWRMapproach and adaptation to climate change have been identified in various studies and strategicdocuments.

Thereareanumberofisolatedcapacity-buildingprojectsandinitiatives,buttheneedforconsolidatedknowledgemanagementat regional levelhasnot so farbeenmet. The transferof knowledgeandexperiencesbetween countries is of great importance, due to the applicability of best practices insimilarconditions.

ResearchanddevelopmentUniversitiesandresearchinstitutesplayanimportantroleinassessingthestatusofwaterresources,and in technical and non-technical innovations and solutions.Water research and the transfer oftechnologiesbetweendifferentregionsaresignificantlyacceleratedwiththesupportofinternationalcooperationinitiatives.However,theencouragementandenhancementofindigenouswaterresearchisequallyimportantbecauseofthespecificlocalandregionalconditions,where“imported”solutionsareineffectiveorrequireadaptation.

RegionalcooperationMostoftheriverbasinsandgroundwaterbodiesaresharedbetweentwoormorecountries,whichresultsinthedependenceofdownstreamcountriesonupstreamonesinthecaseofsurfacewaters,andmutual dependence in the case of groundwater use. Despite the existing regional initiatives,cooperationisoftenmerelyformalandneedsfurtherimprovementintermsofactualcommunicationanddialogue.

KnowledgedevelopmentandcapacitybuildingWatermanagementpracticesinMENAcountrieshavealonghistoryofdevelopmentinacontextofextremely scarcewater resources. Traditional knowledgehas latelybeenenrichedby internationalexperiencegainedinthecourseofvariousprojects.

Anumberofrecentstudies,includinginterviewswithnationalstakeholdersinJordan,Tunisia,EgyptandMorocco,carriedoutintheframeworkoftheWATERSUMproject,haveidentifiedanessentialneedforcapacitybuildingonimportantissuesrelatedtowatermanagement.

KnowledgeandpracticesrelatedtowaterdemandmanagementAlthoughtheMENAregionhasmadesignificantprogresstowardstheprotectionandefficientuseoffreshwaterandirrigationwaterinrecentdecades,therearestilluncertaintiesandgapsinanalysingthesocialandeconomicdrivingforcesofwaterdemand.Thebuildingofcapacitiestoperformsoundsocialandeconomicanalyseswasidentifiedasaneed.

Themanagementofwaterdemandatlocallevel(mainlyirrigation)requiresanimprovementinthecapacities ofwater user associations. Decentralisation and privatisation, aswell as support to theretailing of water by user associations, are included in numerous national strategies and plans,including theWaterStrategyof Jordan“Water forLife”2008–2022, theTunisianLong-TermWaterStrategy,andtheNationalWaterStrategy2009–2030ofMorocco. Inall thesecountries,thewaterstrategiesidentifygapsinthehumanandtechnicalcapacitiesofwateruserassociations,whichhindertheircommunicationwiththestatewaterauthorities.

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TechnologytransferforthemobilisationofwaterresourcesIn recent decades, water sector policies and investments in the MENA region have focused onmobilisingwaterresources.Countrieshavereachedaveryhighlevelofmobilisationofexistingnaturalfreshwaterresources,insomecasesexceedingthecarryingcapacityofsurfacewaterbodiesandnon-renewablegroundwater.Thefocusisthereforenowonresearch,innovationandtechnologytransferrelatedtonon-conventionalwaterresources.

Bestpracticesonatmosphericprecipitationandwaterharvestingmustbepromotedatall levels inorder to improve the efficiencyof thesemethods, particularly in rural areas. Thismay include theexchangeofbestpracticesandtrainingsonmethodsandtechnologiesforimprovingtheefficiencyofwaterharvesting.

ResearchanddataforwaterresourcesprotectionNumerousstudieshavebeenundertakenthatprovidehydrologicalinformationandotherdatarelatedtodifferentaspectsofwatermanagementinMENAcountries.However,thedataareoftenscattered,andexchangeprotocols andmechanisms aremissing at national and regional levels. Theneed forimproved datamanagement approaches has been outlined by stakeholders in Jordan and Tunisia,including software development, andmore and better data are required for proper analyses andassessmentsinthecontextoffuturedecisionmakingbyresponsibleinstitutions.

ThemonitoringofwaterqualityvariesamongMENAcountriesandnormallyfocusesonbasicphysicalandchemicalparameterswithuniversaluse.Theintroductionofbiologicalmonitoringandintegratedwaterqualityclassificationwillrequireadditionaltraining,asexperienceinthecountriesiscurrentlylimited.

Increasedcapacityonsocio-politicalaspectsofIWRMItisconsideredanappropriatetimetofurtherfacilitatetheinvolvementofstakeholdersindecision-makingprocesses,andtoencouragepublicparticipationbyraisingawarenessofthe importanceofeachindividual’scontributiontosustainablewaterresourcesmanagement.Awarenessraisingshouldimproveknowledgeathouseholdlevel.

Civilsocietyandlocalgovernmentsshouldbeconcernedaboutappropriatesourcesandusesofwater.

They can support water management and can have a huge, positive effect in terms of pollution

prevention, for example. However, the effective participation of stakeholders in decision-makingprocesses requires improved technical skills and competencies on the part of CSOs and local

authorities.

ResearchanddatamanagementonclimatechangeimpactsA need for improved climate and hydrological data management has been identified, includingextreme events such as droughts and flash floods. This includes different phases of the datamanagementcycleandvariousapproachessuchasprocessingandanalyses,interpretation,software,modelling,monitoringandqualityassurance.

Theuseofnon-conventionalwaterresourcesisconsideredanimportantdirectioninordertoincreasewatersupplyandasaclimatechangeadaptationmeasure.However,furtherknowledgeandanalysisare necessary regarding the environmental impacts and socioeconomic costs of non-conventionalwaterresources(e.g.desalination).

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2. Water-Related Climate Change Mitigation and AdaptationMeasuresforSustainableGrowth

MENAWaterWorldCafé2016BackgroundPaper,WorkingGroup2

Prof.FayezAbdulla,JordanUniversityofScienceandTechnology

IntroductionClimatechangereferstoanalterationinthestateoftheclimatethatcanbeidentifiedbychangesinmeanvaluesand/orthevariabilityofitsproperties,andthatpersistsforanextendedperiod,typicallydecadesorlonger.Itreferstoanychangeinclimateovertime,whetherduetonaturalvariabilityorasa result of human activity (IPCC 2007a). Scientists have established a causal effect between theaccelerationofgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsandclimatechangeimpacts(IPCC2007a).GlobalGHGemissionsduetohumanactivitieshavegrownsincepre-industrialtimes,withanincreaseof70percentbetween1970and2004.

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) refers topreventingdangeroushumaninterferencewiththeclimatesystem,inatimeframesufficienttoallowecosystems to adapt naturally, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enableeconomicdevelopmenttoproceedinasustainablemanner.Global,nationalandlocalmeasuresareneeded to combat the adverse impacts of climate change. In its most recent report, theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that “water and its availability andqualitywillbe themainpressureson,and issues for, societiesand theenvironmentunder climatechange”(Batesetal.2008).Overthepastdecade,evidenceofglobalwarmingandtheaccompanyingchangestotheEarthhasmounted.TheIPCC’sfourthassessmentreportconcludesthatitis90to99percent likelythattherise inglobalatmospherictemperaturesincethemid-19thcenturyhasbeencausedbyhumanactivities(IPCC2007a).

It isawell-established fact that the temporalandspatialvariabilityof freshwater resources isverysensitivetochangesthatmayoccurintheclimatemechanismduetoglobalwarming.Itisassumedthatthefrequencyofextremehydrologicalevents(floodsanddroughts)willincreaseasafunctionofvariousclimatechangescenarios(Abdullaetal.2009).Hydrometeorologicalhazardssuchasfloodsanddroughts affectmany regions of theworld, but their impact in terms of lives lost and livelihoodsdisruptedtendstofallmostheavilyonthepoorindevelopingcountries.Climatechangethreatenstoheightentheseimpacts inmanyareas,bothbychangingthefrequencyand/or intensityofextremeeventsandbybringingaboutchangesinmeanconditionsthatmayaltertheunderlyingvulnerabilityofpopulationstohazards.Theresultinthedecadestocomemaybeanincreaseintheglobalburdenofweather-relateddisasters:eventsthatcanthreatenthesustainabilityofdevelopmentprocessesandundermineprogresstowardspovertyreduction.

MostArabcountriesarelocatedinaridandsemi-aridzones,characterisedbyscantyannualrainfall,veryhighratesofevaporation,andconsequentlyextremelyinsufficientrenewablewaterresources.Thesustainablemanagementofwaterresourcesisvital,aswaterscarcityisbecomingmoreandmoreofadevelopmentconstraint,impedingtheeconomicgrowthofmanycountriesintheregion.Duetotheexpandingpopulationthiscentury,togetherwithincreasingpercapitawaterdemandandthehugesocioeconomic developments over the last three decades, the need for the sustainable use andintegratedmanagementoftheregion’sscarcewaterresourceshasbecomeakeyconditionforsurvival.Manyofthesurfacewaterandgroundwaterresourcesintheregionaredrawnfromsharedriversandaquifersrespectively,whichfurthercomplicatesthesituation.Theconsequencesofwaterscarcityand

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conflictscouldleadtoseriouscrisesandpossibleconfrontations,iftheyarenotlookedatanddealtwithusingamandatory,equitableandsustainableapproach.

FortheArabregion,futureprojectionsusingclimatemodelspointtoanincreaseintemperatureandadecreaseinrainfall.Bothpresentvariability,whilelong-termclimatechangeimpactsaremostsevereinthedevelopingworld,whichisleastabletobufferitselfagainstthem.Climatechangeimpactsareparticularlysevereincountries,regionsandcommunitieswherethecapacitytocopewith,andadaptto,thehydrologicaleffectsofclimatevariabilitywillinfluencetheiroveralldevelopmentprospects.

Climate-related impacts onwater resources are alreadybeingdocumented.Global climatemodelspredict a warmer planet. For the Arab region, the possible changes to the climate— specificallytemperature, evaporation, rainfall and drought—are also likely to affect the availability of waterresourcesandwill influenceplanstomeetexpecteddemandforwater inthefuture. Inthecaseofsurfacewaterresources,theconnectionbetweenclimateandwateravailabilityisclearerandmoreimmediate,althoughitdoeshaveitscomplications,suchaschanginglanduseassociatedwithclimatechange.

Theimplicationsofclimatevariabilityandclimatechangehavenotfullybeentakenintoaccountinthecurrent decision-making framework. An assessment of vulnerability and consequent risks towaterresources due to climate change impacts is therefore necessary in order towork out appropriateadaptationandmitigationresponses.Theoverallpurposeofthisstudyistogiveageneraloverviewofthestudied impactsofprojectedclimaticchanges intheArabregion, inordertoaddresssomekeypointsrelatedtoadaptationandmitigationplanning.

Thispaperattemptstoshedlightonclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityasphenomenathatmightaffectwateravailability intheArabregion,andonhowvulnerableArabcountriescanmitigateandadapttotheirpositiveandnegativeimpacts.ThepaperexplorestheriskstotheArabregionfromtheimpactsofclimatechangeoverthenext30to50years.Forthispurpose,thevulnerabilityofwaterresources to climate change in some Arab countries was reviewed and presented. Adaptationmeasureswerethensuggested,alongwithcurrentpoliciesandtheirimplicationsforthevulnerabilityof different sectors. The proposed adaptation measures can be included as projects within eachnationalactionplanforclimatechange.Theproposedprojectshavemanycross-cutting issueswithother sectors and will therefore be compiled with similar projects under the same programmes.AdaptationpoliciesshouldbeimplementedinordertoenhanceandfacilitateactionsthatwillreduceArabcountries’vulnerabilityandimprovetheirresiliencetoclimatechange.Foradaptationmeasuresto be successful, leadership is required to inspire confidence and agreement among all levels ofgovernment,theprivatesectorandcivilsociety.

Arabcountries’contributiontoGHGemissionsThereisawidelyheldscientificconvictionthattheglobalclimateischangingasaresultofcombinedanthropogenicforcingduetogreenhousegases(GHGs),aerosolsandlandsurfacechanges.Basedonmanypiecesofevidence,ithasbeenconcludedwithahighdegreeofprobabilitythathumanactivitieshaveexertedasubstantialnetwarminginfluenceontheclimatesince1750(IPCC2007c).Physicalandbiological ecosystems on all continents and inmost oceans have already been affected by recentclimate changes (IPCC 2007b). It is now generally accepted that these changes are the result ofincreasing concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and other GHGs in theatmosphere(IPCC2001b).

Fortheyear2000,statisticsshowthattheworld’s totalGHGemissions fromallsourceswasabout33,000teragrams(Tg),withArabcountriescontributingabout4.2percentofthetotalworldemissions

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(WRI 2005). As presented in Figure 1, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is contributing the highestpercentageoftotalGHGemissionsfromamongArabcountries,followedbyEgyptandAlgeria(WRI2005).ThisrelativelysmallcontributionofGHGsfromallArabcountriesdoesnotcorrespondtotheprojectedimpactsofclimatechangeovertheregion(AFED2008).DespitethefactthattheArabregionhashistoricallymadethesmallestcontributiontoglobalwarming,scientificprojectionsindicatewithahighdegreeofconfidencethatitwillbedisproportionatelyaffectedbyclimatechange(AFED2008).Asof2004,thetotalshareoftheUnitedNationsEconomicandSocialCommissionforWesternAsia(ESCWA)regionwaslimitedto3to4percentofglobalemissions.WaterintheESCWAregioniscentraltobothclimatechangeandhumandevelopment,andmostoftheimpactsofclimatechangewillhittheregionthroughitsscarcewaterresources.

Figure 1: GHG emissions in the year 2000 from Arab countries (WRI 2005)

ClimatetrendsinthewadisystemsintheArabregionTheArabregionstretchesfromMoroccoandMauritaniainthewest,throughnorthernAfricaandtheLevant,totheArabianGulfintheeast(Figure2).Accordingly,Arabcountriescanbedividedfromahydrologicalpointofview,intothefollowingsubdivisions:

• AlMashrekcountries:Iraq,Syria,Lebanon,JordanandthePalestinianterritories.• AlMaghrebcountries:Libya,Tunisia,Algeria,MauritaniaandMorocco.• NileBasincountries:EgyptandSudan.• Arabian Peninsula: Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain and

Yemen.• Sahelcountries:Somalia,DjiboutiandComorosIslands.

Eachoftheabovefiveregionshasdistincthydrologicalcharacteristics.Thisdivisionwillbefollowedindifferentsectionsofthisstudy.

TheAlMashrekregioncomprisesthreemajorbasins: theJordanRiverBasin(Jordan,Lebanon,thePalestinianterritoriesandSyria),theEuphratesRiverBasinandtheTigrisRiverBasin.TheEuphrates

Tg CO2 equivallent

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

AlgeriaEgypt

IraqJordan

Kuwait

KSA

Lebanon

Libya

Mauritania

Moracco

Oman

SyriaSudan

Tunisia

UAEYamen

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hasasurfaceareaof450,000km2andis2,735kmlong.ItrisesinTurkeyandflowsthroughSyriabeforeenteringIraqonitswaytothesea,whereitjoinstheTigristoformtheShattal-Arab.TheTigrisBasinissharedbySyria,IraqandTurkey,withIraninaddition.Thebasincoversabout110,000km2andtheriverisabout1,900kmlong.BeforetheconfluenceoftheEuphratesandtheTigris,thetworiversflowthroughIraqforabout1,000kmand1,300kmrespectively(SIWI2009).

Figure 2: Arab countries

A key water source in the region is the Jordan River system (JRS). The JRS comprises severalhydrologicalunits.TheUpperJordanisfedprimarilybytheDan,theHasbani,andtheBaniasstreamsthat combine to become the Upper Jordan River. The Dan lies entirely within Israel. The BaniasoriginatesinSyriabuthasbeenunderIsraelicontrolsince1967.TheWazzanistream,whichrisesinLebanon,isthemainsourceoftheHasbani.TheHasbanialonesuppliesabout25percentoftheJordanRiver’swater.TheUpperJordanthenflowsintotheSeaofGalilee(LakeTiberias).TheJordanRiverBasinisofgreat importancetoJordan,thePalestinianterritoriesandIsrael.SyriaandLebanonalsocontributewaterresourcestothebasin,butrelyfarlessheavilyonitfromawaterabstractionpointofview.TheJordanRiversuffersfrombothover-extractionandseverepollutionandsalinityproblems.Thisisespeciallysignificantinyearsofdrought(SIWI2009).

AnotherimportantriverintheregionistheLitaniRiver.TheLitanibasinliesentirelywithinLebanon.Atpresent,theLitaniisnotfullyutilised.ItisoneoftheonlyriversintheareathatcontinuestoflowintotheEasternMediterranean.Althoughnotasharedwaterresource,theexistingflowintheLitaniRiverhasreducedtheneedforLebanon,intheshortterm,todivertgreaterquantitiesofwaterfromtheWazzaniandthesharedbasinoftheUpperJordanRiver.

TheYarmoukisthemostsignificanttributaryoftheLowerJordanRiver,reachingtheriverjustbelowtheSeaofGalilee/LakeTiberias.TheLowerJordanthenflowstotheDeadSea(oneofsevenbasinsthatformthemajorDeadSeaBasin).TheYarmoukcontributesallofthewateroftheKingAbdullahcanal,whichsupplieswatertoJordan,largelyforagriculture.TheYarmoukdrainsterritoriesinSyriaandJordanandformstheborderbetweenJordanandSyria.Furtherdownstream,itformstheborderbetweenJordanandIsraelshortlybeforeitsconfluencewiththeLowerJordanRiver.FromthispointtotheDeadSea,theLowerJordanformstheborderbetweenJordanandIsrael,andthenbetweenJordanandthePalestinianterritories.BecauseIsrael,JordanandSyriadivert95percentofthewater

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thatissupposedtofeedtheLowerJordanRiver,theLowerJordanhasalmostcompletelydriedup.Theflowthatremainsisfedbyafewtinyspringsandconsistsprimarilyofsewageandagriculturalrunoff,and is therefore quite polluted. The Jordan River Valley and the Dead Sea are among theworld’scultural,religiousandheritagesites.TheDeadSeahasalreadyshrunkbyone-thirdinthepast50years,andwithouttheseflowsthesesiteswillnotremainassuch.

TheNileisthelongestinternationalriversystemintheworld.Itflowsforsome6,700kmthrough10countriesbeforereachingtheMediterraneanSea.TheNileBasincoversroughly2.9millionkm2,whichisalmostone-tenththeareaofAfrica(Gleick1991).Theriverflowsnorthforadistanceof6,500kmfrom4"Sto31"Nlatitude,andextendsfrom21"30'to40"30'Elongitude.TheNileanditstributaries(WhiteNile,BlueNile)flowthroughTanzania,Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi,Zaire,Kenya,Ethiopia,SudanandEgypt(Shahin1985).

Thelinearwarmingtrendoverthelast50yearshasbeenrecordedas0.13ºCperdecade(IPCC2007b).There has also been an increase in the number of heat waves, a reduction in the frequency anddurationoffrosts,andanincreaseinthefrequencyandintensityofextremeeventsinmanypartsoftheworld.Regardingtheseglobaltrends,recentstudieshavefoundthattheArabregionexperiencedanunevenincreaseinsurfaceairtemperaturerangingfrom0.2to2.0ºCthatoccurredfrom1970to2004(IPCC2007a).

ClimatictrendsAlMashrekregionEarlierstudiesinvestigatingtheweatherrecordsinJordanhaveshownanincreaseinthemagnitudeandfrequencyofextremetemperatures(AbdullaandAl-Omari2008).Highertemperaturesandlowerprecipitationareexpectedasaresultofclimatechange.Accordingtolocalclimatechangestudies:

• atrendanalysishasrevealedaslightincreaseinthemeanannualtemperature;and• themeanannualmaximum temperature tends to increase slightly,while themeanannual

minimumtemperaturetendstoshowahigherincrease.

AccordingtoJordan’sSecondandThirdNationalCommunicationstotheUNFCCC,annualprecipitationhasshowndecreasingtrendsof5to20percentinthemajorityofstationsinJordanduringthelast45years, although a few stations, such as Ruwaished in the extreme east and Ras Muneef in thenorthwest,haveexperiencedan increase intheamountofannualrainfallby5to10percent(JSNC2009andJTNC2014).Agreateramountofrainfall,withadecreaseinthenumberofrainydays,maylead to an increase in daily rainfall intensity and, as a result, to an increased chance of recordingextreme precipitation values. On the other hand, many other stations experienced an increasingnumberofrainydaysassociatedwithdecreasingamountsofannualprecipitation(JSNC2009).Inthiscase,asmalleramountofprecipitationwillbespreadoveralongerperiodoftime,andconsequentlythedailyrainfall intensitymaybereduced.Increasingtrendsinrelativehumidityof4to13percentduringthelastthreedecadescanbeobservedinthemajorityofthestudylocations(JSNC2009).

Annualaverageprecipitation isvaried in theAlMashrek region. InLebanonandSyria, theaverageannual amounts of precipitation are 600 and 300 mm respectively. Iraq and Syria are partiallydependentontheTigrisandEuphratesrivers,originatinginTurkey.Thetwocountrieshaverainfallofreasonableintensity,andgroundwaterpotentialinbothcountriesisrelativelyhigh.Syriaenjoyssmallflowscausedbysnowmeltfromthepeaksofsomelocalmountains.Lebanondependsonanumberoflocalriversorriverssharedwithoneormoreoftheneighbouringcountries.ThepercapitasharesofwaterinLebanonaswellasinSyriaandIraqarethehighestamongallArabcountries.JordanandthePalestinianterritoriesarethemostwaterpoorintheregion,sincetheydependontheJordanRiverandonsmallquantitiesofrainfallandgroundwater.

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Winterprecipitationinthenorthernandnorth-easternzonesofSyriahaveshownsignsofdecreasefor the last five decades, while autumn precipitation increased at stations that lie mostly in thenorthern zone of central Syria. Few stations statistically showed significant changes in spring andsummerprecipitation(Figure3)(FNC_Syr2009).Atrendanalysisappliedtoseasonallyaverageannualtemperatureseriesbetween1955and2006showsawidespreadriseinsummertemperaturesinallstationsinSyria,withasignificantincreaseincoastalandwesternregions.Ontheotherhand,wintertemperaturesshowageneraltendencytowardsadecreaseinSyria.Thisdecreaseismostlynoticeableinthecostalstations,withasignificantdecreaseinspringandautumn.Ananalysisofextremeeventsand indices shows significant increasing trends in the annual maximum of daily maximum andminimum temperatures, the annualminimum of the dailymaximum surface air temperature, theannualminimumofthedailyminimumsurfaceairtemperature,thenumberoftropicalnights,andthenumberofsummerdays.The lastofthesedenotesan increase inthenumberofwarmerdaysandnightsintheyear.Nevertheless,significantdecreasingtrendsincoolnightsanddaysandtherangeofdiurnaltemperatureswerealsoobserved(FNC_Syr2009).

Winter

Spring

Autumn

Annual

Figure 3. Seasonal and annual precipitation trends in Syria for the period 1955 to 2006

● no trend ▲ significant increase ▲ insignificant increase

▼ significant decrease ▼ insignificant decrease ●insignificant increase and decreases (FNC_Syr 2009)

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ClimatictrendsintheAlMaghrebregionAllfiveMaghrebcountriesdependmainlyonrainfallandpartiallyonmodestgroundwaterreserves.AnnualaverageprecipitationisvariedthroughouttheAlMaghrebregion.Theratedecreasesgraduallyto300mm/yearmovingtothenorthernandeasternpartsoftheMediterraneancoastofMoroccoandTunisia.Averageannualprecipitationreaches130mminNorthAfricancountries.

Thefrequencyofdroughtshasincreasedduringthelast20to40yearsinMorocco,TunisiaandAlgeria.InMorocco,ithaschangedfromanaverageofoneyearofdroughtineveryfive-yearperiodpriorto1990, to one year of drought in every two-year period (Karrou 2002; Abbas 2002; Mougou andMansour2005).

Thefirstsignsofclimatechangeimpactsareappearingalreadyinthisregionthroughbothtemperatureandprecipitationchanges.Temperaturesincreasedby1to2°Cduringthe20thcentury.InMorocco,anexaminationofthelastthreedecades(1970–2000)showsrevealingsignsofclimatechange,suchasthefrequencyandintensityofdroughts;unusuallydevastatingfloods;adecreaseinthesnowcoverperiodonthepeaksoftheRifandtheAtlasmountains;themodificationofspatial-temporalrainfalldistribution; changes in the itinerary andpassage dates ofmigrating birds; and the appearance ofcertainspeciesofbirdsintheRabatregionthatusedtobeseenonlyinthesouthofMarrakech.

In Mauritania, during the summer months, temperatures exceed 38°C, while in winter thetemperatures average around 24°C. Most rain falls during the short rainy season, from July toSeptember,andaverageannualprecipitationvariesgreatly.TheclimateoftheSenegalRiverValleyinthefarsouthcontrastswiththatoftheSaharanandSahelianzones.Rainfall ishigherthaninotherregions, ranging from 400mm to 600mm annually, usually betweenMay and September. In thenortherntwo-thirdsofthecountry,averagerainfallislessthan100mm,whereoftenisolatedstormsreleaselargeamountsofwaterinshortperiodsoftime.Ayear,orevenseveralyearsmaypasswithoutanyraininsomelocations.

RainfallamountsregisteredinMorocco,forexample,showanegativetrendatnationalandregionalscales. Nationally, spring rainfall has declined by over 40 percent since the 1960s. Droughts areapparentlybecomingmorepersistentovertime.Themaximumlengthofdryspellsisincreasingduringtherainyseason,andsignificantlysoattheendofthisseason(FebruarytoApril),whenithasincreasedby15dayssincethe1960s.Atthesametime,thetotalnumberofwetdaysshowsanegativetrend,revealinganincreaseintheannualdrydaynumber.Manyregionsbecamemorearid(accordingtothedeMartonnearidityindex)between1961–1985and1986–2005:theseincludeOujda,Taza,Kenitra,RabatandMeknès.Theannualtotalnumberofcolddays(dayswithamaximumtemperaturebelow15°C)showsanegativetrend,asdoesthedurationofcoldwaves.

ClimatictrendsintheNileBasinRegionEgypthasthesecondlowestannualprecipitationintheArabregion.Duringtheperiod1880to1989,theupperWhiteNilecatchment,theupperBlueNilecatchmentandtheMiddleNileshowedadeclineintotalprecipitation.ThesouthernpartofSudanenjoysampleprecipitationthatisabletomeettheprevailingevaporativedemand,althoughraingraduallyvanishesnorthofthecapital,Khartoum.ThenaturalflowoftheNileforms95percentoftheEgyptianwaterbudget,withtheremaining5percentcomposedofminorquantitiesof rain that fallon thecoastof theMediterraneanSeaandRedSea(about1.5billionm3/year)plusmodestreservesofgroundwateraquifers.

TheclimateinEgypthasbeenchangingalongwiththeglobalchange,butwithlowerratesofvariation.Thereisadownwardtrendinmaximumtemperatureoverthedelta,overthenorthernpartofUpperEgyptandovertheextremesouthofUpperEgypt.Thisdownwardtrendhasrangedfrom-0.02°Cto

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0.06°Cperyear.MinimumtemperatureshavemarkedlyincreasedoverEgypt.AnupwardtrendhascoveredmostpartsofEgypt,exceptasmallareainMiddleEgypt.Theupwardtrendhasculminatedinincreases of 0.1°C/year over southern parts of Upper Egypt. The main contributor to rising airtemperatureistheincreaseinnight-timetemperature.Duringthenight,temperaturerisesatahigherratethanatanyothertime.Thisupwardtrendhasculminatedin increasesof0.05°C/yearoverthewesternpartofthedeltaneartheMediterraneancoast.Theriseinnight-timetemperaturemaybeduetotheeffectofgreenhousegasesandincreasingwatervapourintheatmosphericboundarylayer.Moreover,theriseinsurfaceairtemperatureinEgyptisabout40percentoftheglobalriseinsurfaceairtemperature.RainfallhasincreasedoverthewesterncoastofEgyptbyupto3mm/year.

ClimatictrendsintheArabianPeninsulaThis is the poorest region with respect to water resources, and rainfall is rare by any standards.Groundwaterinmostofthecountriesintheregionisnotrenewableaccordingtomanysources,thuscontinuousabstractionisincreasingthedepthofthewatertableandinsomecasesdamagingwaterquality.Theregiondepends for itswaterneedsmainlyonthedesalinationofwater fromtheGulf.YemenistheonlycountryintheArabianPeninsulamarkedwithextremelyhighsummertemperatures,low intensity of rainfall anddeclining groundwater levels due to over pumping andobviously highevapotranspiration rates. The area has more than half of the world’s proven oil and natural gasreserves,whichenablemostofthecountriestoadoptstate-of-the-artinternationaltechnologyforthedesalinationofseawater.

KuwaithasthepoorestwaterresourcesintheArabregion,withaverageprecipitationof121mm/year,totalannualwaterof0.02billionm3anda100percentdependencyratio.IntheUnitedArabEmirates(UAE),averageannualrainfallovertheperiod1970–2001wasabout120mm,withrainfallinthedriestyearsbeingover20timesbelowrainfalllevelsinthewettestyears.Averagemonthlyrainfallpatternsfluctuatewidelythroughouttheyear,withmostoftherainfalloccurringbetweenJanuaryandAprilwhentemperaturesarelowest.Theserainfalllevels,whileshowingalargerangeacrosstheEmiratesinthewintermonths(especiallyMarch),areuniformlyverylowacrosstheUAEduringthesummermonthsbetweenJulyandOctober(UnitedArabEmiratesInitialNationalCommunication[UAE_INC]2006).

AveragetemperaturesalsoshowsignificantvariationacrosstheUAEovertime.Theannualaveragetemperature isabout27°Coverthe1970–2001period.AveragemonthlytemperaturesfortheUAEoverthisperiodshowcleartrends.Therangeinmaximumobservedmonthlytemperaturesishighestinthesummermonths,reachingnearly6°CacrosstheUAE.Therangeinminimumobservedmonthlytemperatures occurs during thewintermonths, when there is about 11°C between theminimumtemperaturesthroughoutthecountry(UAE_INC2006).

ClimatictrendsintheSahelcountriesSomalia,DjiboutiandtheComorosIslandsarealldependentonrainfall,withmodestpotentialfromgroundwater.Withregardtochangesinprecipitation,anaverageofa25percentdecreaseinrainfallhasoccurredovertheAfricanSahelduringthepast30years.

The change has been characterised by a decrease in the number of rainfall events. A decrease inprecipitationhasoccurredoverthe20thcentury,particularlyafterthe1960s, inthesubtropicsandthetropicsfromAfricatoIndonesia(IPCC2001).

The Third Assessment Report (TAR) suggests that climate change is likely to be associated withincreasedwaterstressinmuchofAfrica.Moreover,itreportsthatscenariosfortheSahelregion,basedonHulme(2001),areambiguous(IPCC2001),reflectingthelackofinformationonthecurrentstateof

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waterresources.AnassessmentbyUNEP(2002)suggeststhatby2050rainfallinAfricacoulddeclineby5percentandbecomemorevariableyearbyyear.

ProjectedclimatechangeintheArabregionIn2007,theIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange—aninternationalgroupofclimatescientists—issuedanassessmentofprojectedclimatechangeimpactsaroundtheworld.Thisreport,theFourthAssessment Report (FAR), estimates that the average temperature of theMiddle East region willincreasebyabout1 to2°Cbetween2030and2050.Thiswould result inhigherevaporation rates,causing soildegradationacross largeareasof land in the region.TheArab region isa vast zoneofgenerallydiverseclimaticconditions,characterisedbyverylowandhighlyvariableannualrainfallandahighdegreeofaridity(FAO2002).MostoftheArabregionlandsareclassifiedashyper-arid,semi-aridandaridlandzones(WRI2002).Mostrecentassessmentshaveconcludedthataridandsemi-aridregionsarehighlyvulnerabletoclimatechange(IPCC2007a).

Forthenexttwodecades,awarmingofabout0.2ºCperdecadeisprojectedforarangeofIPCCSRESemissionscenarios.Even if theconcentrationsofallgreenhousegasesandaerosolshadbeenkeptconstantatyear2000levels,afurtherwarmingofabout0.1ºCperdecadewouldbeexpected(IPCC2007b).

Accordingtoclimatechangestudies,theArabregionwillfaceanincreaseof2ºCto5.5ºCinsurfacetemperaturebytheendofthe21stcentury.Thisincreasewillbecoupledwithaprojecteddecreaseinprecipitation from0 to20percent.Theseprojectedchangeswill lead to shorterwinters,drierandhottersummers,ahigherrateofheatwaves,ahigherlevelofweathervariabilityandamorefrequentoccurrenceofextremeweatherevents.

FortheArabregion,futureprojectionsusingclimatemodelspointtoanincreaseinthemeanannualtemperatureby0.5to1.0°Cin2030,by1to1.5°Cin2070,andby2.5to3.0°Cinyear2100.Theyalsoshowadecreasingtrendinannualprecipitationby10to20percentintheMediterraneanregionandnorthoftheArabPeninsula.SimulatedrangesofwarmingfortheArabregion(IPCC2007a),inthebestscenarioareasfollows:by2030,annualaveragetemperatureswillbe0.5to1.0°ChigherovermostoftheArabregion;by2070,theincreaseinannualaveragetemperatureswillrangefrom1to1.5°C;andby2100theincreaseinannualaveragetemperaturesispredictedtoreach2.5to3.0°C.Modelresultsindicate that future increases in dailymaximumandminimum temperatureswill be similar to thechangesinaveragetemperature.

Intheworstscenario,by2030annualaveragetemperaturesare1to1.5°ChigherovermostoftheArabregion.By2070,theincreaseinannualaveragetemperatureswillrangefrom2to2.5°C,andby2100,theincreaseinannualaveragetemperaturesispredictedtoreach3to4°C(Figure4).

PreliminaryclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityscenariosfortheArabregionindicatethatrainfallintheregionwillbecomeintenseanddryspellswillbecomemorepronounced

MostArabcountrieshavesubmittedtheirinitialandsecondnationalcommunicationstotheUNFCCC(Jordanin1997,2009,2014;Egyptin1999;Tunisiain2001;Bahrainin2005;theUAEin2006;andSyriain 2009). Studies carried out for these communication reports focused on the impacts of climatechangeonthewaterresources,agricultureandlivestocksectors.Theyconcludethatwaterresources,environmentandotherrelatedissuessuchaslanduseandlivestockaremostlikelytobevulnerabletoclimatechange.

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Figure 4: Projected climate change for the late 21st century: Most of the region will be significantly hotter and drier (Drote Verner 2012)

ClimatechangeriskstosurfacewaterresourcesintheArabregionMostArabcountriesarelocatedinaridandsemi-aridregionsthatarecharacterisedbylowandlimitedwaterresourcesandhighevaporation.TheArabregionisoneoftheworld’sdriest,mostwaterscarceregions,anddependsonclimate-sensitiveagriculture.Itisexpectedtofaceseverewatershortagesinthenearfuture.Percapitarenewablewaterresourcesintheregion,whichin1950were4,000m3peryear,arecurrently1,100m3peryear.Freshwaterresourcesarelessthan1,000m3percapitaperyearinnineoutof14countries,andthislimitedsupplyiscurrentlybeingdepletedatarapidratebythegrowingeconomicdevelopmentintheregion.Projectionsindicatethattheywilldropbyhalf,reaching

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550m3perpersonperyearin2050(WorldBank2006).TheIPCChasstatedwithgreatconfidencethattheArab regionwill sufferadecrease inwater resourcesdue toclimatechange (Kundzewiczetal.2007). Unfortunately, comprehensive studies on climate change vulnerability and adaptationrequirementsarelimitedinmostArabcountries.Withclimatechange,waterresourceswillbefurtherstressed due to increased droughts and the anticipated increase in evaporation andevapotranspiration.

The main consequences of climate change related to water resources in the Arab region can,conceptually, be attributed to increases in temperature, lower soil humidity, higher evaporation-transpiration,shiftsinprecipitationpatternsintermsoftemporalandgeographicdistribution,extremeannualandseasonalvariability,downpoursandflashflooding,frequentdroughtsanddesertification,lesssnowcoverathighaltitudes(mountainterrainsinLebanon,theSyrianArabRepublicand,toafarsmallerextent,Iraq),andthepossibledamagingimpactoffuturesealevelrisesonnear-shorefreshgroundwaterresources.

TheoverallpicturethatemergesfromthelimitedliteratureontheregionandfromIPCCprojections(2007a)indicatesthatwateravailabilitywillbehighlysensitivetoclimatechange.Climatechangewillhavesignificantimpactsonfreshwater,affectingboththeavailabilityoffreshwaterandthefrequencyoffloodsanddroughtsintheArabregion.Climatechangemayunderminenationaldevelopmentplans,affecthumansecurityandlivelihoods,haveasignificantimpactonagriculture,tourismandindustry,andactasapushfactorinpopulationmovementsandmigration.

Inaddition,climate-inducedresourcescarcitycouldexacerbatetensionsintheregion’sconflict-riddenareas,potentiallyescalatingviolenceandpoliticalturmoilevenbeyondtheregion’sboundaries.Thisis supportedby the fact that80percentof surfacewater resources and66percentof totalwaterresources in the Arab region are shared water resources. Higher temperatures and reducedprecipitationwillincreasetheoccurrenceofdroughts,aneffectthatisalreadyapparentinmanyArabcountriessuchasJordanandSyria.Climatechangewillalsorequireamoresevereadjustmentinthemanagementoftheregion’swaterresourcesthananyotherregion,sincemostofthewaterresourcesarealreadybeingexploitedforhumanuses.

Furthermore,climatechangeisexpectedtohaveanegativeimpactonwaterquality(bythepollutionof surface water and seawater intrusion to groundwater aquifers). The expected changes willundoubtedly have impacts on all the socioeconomic and environmental goods and services thatdependonthesevariables,eitherdirectlyorindirectly.Theconsequencesarefar-reachingintheArabregionandarelikelytobefeltthehardestbythemostvulnerablegroupssuchaswomen,theelderly,children,thepoorandthedisadvantaged.

Moreover,awarmerclimate,withitsincreasedclimatevariability,willincreasetheriskofbothfloodsanddroughts(WetheraldandManabe2002).Areasaffectedbydroughtwillprobablyincrease,andextremeprecipitationevents,whichare likely to increase in frequencyand intensity,will augmentfloodrisk.Theincreasedfrequencyandseverityoffloodsanddroughtswillalsohaveimplicationsforsustainable development (IPCC 2007a). Water shortages are already the main constraint in mostcountries of the region, and IPCC model simulations indicate that water scarcity may worsensubstantiallyasaresultoffuturechangesinclimaticpatterns.Thechangeinthevalueofsurfacerunoffwilldependonthechanges intemperatureandprecipitation,amongothervariables.A2008studyconductedbyAbdullaandAl-Omarishowsthatariseintemperatureof2to4°CinJordanwillreducetheflowoftheZarqaRiverbybetween12and40percent.

Climate change may significantly damage surface water quality, as intense rainfall may generatesignificantsurfacerunoffthatmaycarrysignificantsedimentloadscontainingpesticides,fertilisersand

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waste.Thiswill increasesiltationinsteams, lakesandimpoundments.Warmerwatertemperaturesmayhavefurtherdirectimpactsonwaterquality,suchasreducingdissolvedoxygenconcentrations.Cold-water species, such as most salmon and trout, are particularly susceptible to warm watertemperatures,andincreasinglyfrequentwarmwaterconditionscouldbringnewchallengestothewaymanagedriversystemsarecontrolled.Wherestreamflowsandlakelevelsdeclineduetoevaporativewaterlosses,thesalinityofsurfacewaters,especiallyinlakesandreservoirswithlongresidencetimes,couldincrease.Thesestressesonwaterqualitywillincreaseifclimatechangeleadstolongerdryspells.

ClimatechangeriskstogroundwaterresourcesintheArabregionThere has been very little research on the impact of climate change on groundwater (Alley 2001;Kundzewiczetal.2007).Therehas likewisebeen limitedworkonhowclimatechangemightaffectgroundwaterinaridandsemi-aridregions,includingtheArabregion.Studiesoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonrechargeneedtoconsiderchangesinprecipitationvariabilityandinundation(Khiyamietal.2005).Locally,rechargeisafunctionofprecipitation,intermsofbothamountandtiming,thesoilandvadose zone properties, evaporation, and transpiration. Recharge can also be greatly affected bychanges in land use, such as going fromgrassland orwoodland to agriculture.Outside of soil andvadose zoneproperties, climate change is expected to affect all of these factors. The amount andtiming of precipitation has been previously discussed. Increases or decreases in evaporation are afunctionoftemperatureaswellashumidity,whichistiedtoprecipitation.Globally,increasedCO2intheatmosphere isexpected todecrease transpiration (Bettsetal.2007andLeipprandandGerten2006,bothascitedbyKundzewiczetal.2007);however,transpirationwillvarylocallydependingonthe localchanges in temperature,precipitationandvegetationtype.Local increases inevaporationandtranspirationcouldincreasethesalinationofsoils.

The IPCChasnoted that there is noubiquitous trend in groundwater systems that canbedirectlycorrelatedtoclimatechange,primarilybecauseofthelackofdata(Kundzewiczetal.2007).Webelievethisisdue,inpart,touncertaintiesinestimatingrechargeandteasingoutwhatcomponentofrechargeis natural or influenced by land-use change, let alone changes in climate, especially when thosechanges,currentandprojected,areoffarsmallermagnitudethannaturalvariations.Furthermore,inmanyaquifersittakestimeforwatertoreachthewatertable,andthewaterthatreachestheentiretyof the water table represents an integration of past climatic conditions over years, decades, andperhapscenturies.

The consumption of groundwater is likely to become unsustainable. According to the IPCC, theunsustainabledepletionofgroundwaterislikelytobeworsenedbyreducedsurfacewaterinfiltrationintheArabregion.Inaddition,theincreaseintheintrusionofsaltwatertocoastalaquifersfromsealevelrisewillfurtherreducetheavailabilityofusablegroundwater(IPCC2007f).Climatechangecouldaffectgroundwaterresourcesbyaffectingrecharge,pumping,naturaldischargeandsalineintrusion.Someof these effects are direct, and some are indirect. Recharge is an obvious parameter that isaffectedbyclimatechangeasitiscloselytiedtoprecipitation.Ifthereismoreprecipitationtherewillprobably bemore recharge, and if there is less precipitation therewill probably be less recharge.Moreover, sea-level rise will extend the area of saline groundwater, resulting in a decrease infreshwateravailabilityforhumansandecosystems incoastalareas(Bobbaetal.2000). Inaddition,groundwater rechargewill decrease considerably in somealreadywater-stressed regions (Döll andFlörke2005).

Climate changemay have a negative impact on the quality of groundwater. In coastal zones, forexample, changing recharge patterns, including reduced long-term recharge and/or temporallyvariable recharge, coupledwith rising sea levels,will increase the likelihoodof seawater intrusion,thereby damagingwater quality in the aquifers.Moreover, increased sea levelwould also lead to

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significantproblemsintermsofpopulationdislocation.InSaudiArabia,itisexpectedthattheseawaterlevelwillincreaseby50cm,andthiswillresultinlosing3,747hectaresofcostalarea.InBahrain,therisingseawaterlevelwillresultinthelossof5to10percentofthetotalareaofthecountry.

PreliminaryclimatechangeandclimatevariabilityscenariosfortheArabregionindicatethatrainfallinthe region will become intense and dry spells will become more pronounced. Increased rainfallintensity is expected to lead to reduced infiltration and potential aquifer charge. The potentialsensitivityofaquiferrechargetoprecipitationissummarisedbyDöllandFlörke(2005),whoshowthatthe increase in surface temperature and the reduction in rainfall will result in a 30 to 70 percentreductioninrechargeinanaquiferlocatedontheeasternandsouthernMediterraneancoast.

GroundwatersupplieswillbeatgreatriskfromrisingsealevelsinESCWAmembercountries.HighersealevelswouldcauseseawaterintrusionleadingtothesalinisationofESCWAgroundwateraquifersclose to coastlines. Excessivewithdrawal from aquiferswill exacerbate the problem. Furthermore,manygeneralcirculationmodelssuggestgreaterprecipitationvariability,anddownpourswillbecomemore intense. This would increase runoff and flash floods while reducing the ability of water toinfiltratethesoil torechargetheaquifers (e.g. thecaseofhurricaneGono inOman).Conceptually,seawaterintrusiontocoastalgroundwaterresourcesmightposeathreattoEgypt,Lebanon,theSyrianArabRepublicandtheGulfStates.

ClimatechangeadaptationandmitigationintheArabregionOver the past decade or more, the national and international focus has been predominantly onstrategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In many countries, and in the internationalnegotiations on climate change, there has been an unwillingness to devote serious attention toadaptationstrategies.Somelevelofclimatechangeis inevitable, irrespectiveofemissionreductionstrategies.ThisinevitabilityisreflectedintheconclusionstatedbytheIPCCintheir2001AssessmentReportthatadaptationisnowanecessarystrategytocomplementemissionmitigationefforts.

Anadaptationstrategy,inordertobeeffective,mustresultinclimateriskbeingconsideredasanormalpart of decision making, allowing governments, businesses and individuals to reflect their riskpreferencesjustastheywouldforotherriskassessments.Inthissense,adaptationstrategieswillfailif theycontinue, inthe longrun,tobeseen ina“silo”separatefromotherdimensionsofstrategicplanningandriskmanagement.Toreachthispoint,however,isgoingtorequireaperiodofawarenessraising,thedevelopmentofthescience,andthedevelopmentoftechniquesforapplyingitinpracticalsituations.Thisisacommonpathindevelopingpublicpolicyin“new”fields.Thefirststepistoidentifypriorities.

Manyhumanandnaturalsystemsarestronglyinfluencedbytheclimate.Allofournaturalecosystemshaveevolvedinvariable,butgenerallyslowlychanging,climatepatterns.Industriesandcommunitiesarealsoaffectedbyclimatefactors.Climatecan influenceproductivityandthereliabilityofsupply.Communities also expect that our cities and infrastructure will cope with severe weather eventsefficiently and safely. Improved technical knowledge andmodern communications are tending toincreaseunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweenclimateexposureandnationalwelfare.

AlthoughclimatechangeisprojectedtohaveseriousimpactsonwaterresourcesintheArabregion,only modest efforts and steps are being taken in scientific research related to mitigation andadaptation.ThescientificcommunityinmostArabcountriesisstillsuspiciousregardingclimatechangephenomena,and remainshesitant toacknowledge the risks. Inaddition,Arabcountries, likeotherdevelopingcountries,havelowadaptivecapacitytowithstandtheadverseimpactsofclimatechangedue to the high dependence of a majority of the population on climate-sensitive sectors such as

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agriculture and water resources, coupled with poor infrastructure facilities, weak institutionalmechanismsandalackoffinancialresources.Arabcountriesare,therefore,seriouslyconcernedwiththepossibleimpactsofclimatechange,suchas:

• water stress and a reduction in the availability of freshwater due to a potential decline inrainfall;

• threatstoagricultureandfoodsecurity,sincemostagriculturalactivitiesareeitherrain-fedagriculture(e.g.inJordan,whereabout71percentofcultivatedlandisrainfed)orirrigatedagriculture(e.g.Egypt,wheremorethan90percentofthecultivatedareaisirrigated);

• threatstobiodiversity,withadverseimplicationsforforest-dependentcommunities;• adverseimpactsonnaturalecosystems,suchaswadisystems,andcoralreefsinArabcities

locatedontheRedSea,aswellasgrasslandsandmountainecosystems;and• impactsonhumanhealthduetotheincreaseinvector-andwater-bornediseases.

Theimpactsofclimatechangeareinevitableandraiseissuesofadaptation.Althoughclimatechangewillaffectvirtuallyeverysectorandregion,thispartofthestudylooksatthewaterresourcessectorinArabcountriesinordertoillustratethenatureofadaptationproblemsandpolicyresearchneeds.

The Council of Arab Ministers Responsible for the Environment, at its 19th session held at theheadquartersoftheLeagueofArabStatesonDecember5and6,2007,adoptedtheArabMinisterialDeclarationonClimateChange(AMDCC),whichconstitutesthebasisforfutureactionandreflectstheArabpositionindealingwithclimatechangeissues,asfollows(AMDCC2007):InmostArabcountries,comprehensivenationalpoliciestoaddressclimatechangeshavenotbeenadoptedtodate.Inthelasttwodecadesarangeofacts,regulationsandmeasures,policiesandstrategiesdirectlyrelatedtowaterscarcityandindirectlyrelatedtoclimatechange,havebeendevelopedandevenadopted.However,theeffectiveimplementationofclimatechangemeasuresmayrequirethedevelopmentofresponsemeasures that are primarily designed to achieve other development objectives. Therefore, thedevelopmentofmitigationandadaptationstrategiestoprotectwaterresourcesintheArabregionisrequiredifnationalsocioeconomicgoalsaretobeattained.

Theaimofmitigationandadaptationstrategiesistodevelopaclimatechangepolicythatisspecificallygearedtowardsmorevulnerablesectorsinthecountryandtoestablishapublicpolicythatencouragesand supportsadaptationat localor community leveland in theprivate sector.Anothergoal is thedevelopment of sustainable economic growth, which, in turn, allows for a greater allocation ofresources to the development of adaptive technologies and innovations. Expected outcomes fromtheseproposedpolicyactionsarethefollowing:

• reducedvulnerability;• adaptationtoexpectedclimatechanges;• thepromotionofsustainabledevelopment;• areductioninpoverty;• environmentalprotection;• institutionstrengthening;• capacitybuildingonclimatechange;• theestablishmentofalegalframeworktoaddressclimatechange;and• greaterpublicawarenessofclimatechange.

Inthisstudy,adaptationmeasuresaresuggestedalongwiththecurrentpoliciesandtheirimplicationsfor the vulnerability of different sectors. The proposed adaptation measures can be included asprojectswithineachnationalactionplanforclimatechange.Theproposedprojectshavemanycross-

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cutting issueswithother sectorsandshould thereforebecompiledwithsimilarprojectsunder thesameprogrammes.AdaptationpoliciesshouldbeimplementedtoenhanceandfacilitateactionsthatwillreduceArabcountries’vulnerabilityandimprovetheirresiliencetoclimatechange.Foradaptationmeasurestobesuccessful,leadershipisrequiredtoinspireconfidenceandagreementamongalllevelsofgovernment,theprivatesectorandcivilsociety

Prioritising adaptation action requires the identification of vulnerable systems—both human andnatural,suchasthewatersector—thecostsifthesefail,thescopetoreducethisrisk,andtheabilitytocaptureanypotentialbenefits.Vulnerabilityisafunctionofexposuretoclimatefactors,sensitivitytochangeandcapacitytoadapttothatchange.Systemsthatarehighlyexposed,sensitiveandlessable to adapt are vulnerable. Adaptation strategies therefore involve the identification ofsectors/systems/regionsvulnerabletochangeandanexaminationofthescopetoincreasethecopingcapacityofthosesystems—thatis,theirresilience—which,inturn,willdecreasetheirvulnerability.Prioritisationwillalsodependonidentifyingvulnerablesystemsorregionswhosefailureorreductionislikelytocarrythemostsignificantconsequences.

AdaptationmeasuresforthewaterresourcessectorThe availability ofwater is essential formany industries and other natural resources. Everymajormainlandcityalreadyfaceswaterstress.Inmanycases,climatechangewillincreasethesepressuresthrough higher temperatures and possibly lower rainfall combined with more frequent El Niño–SouthernOscillation (ENSO) events. Dams could be susceptible to extreme rainfall events if theseeventsexceedhistoricaldesignstandards.Damovertoppingandfailurecanhavecatastrophicshort-andmedium-termeffectsintermsofhumanandeconomiclosses.

Adaptationoptionsforurbanwateranddamscouldincludethesystematicinclusionofclimaterisk—onboththesupplyanddemandside—inallmajorurbancatchments.Thereismuchworkalreadyprogressinginthisarea.Similarly,collaborativeworkontheassessmentofnon–conventionalwatersupplysources—desalination,waterrecycling—andondemandmanagementcouldbeahighpriorityundernationalwaterstrategies.

TheprojectedimpactofclimatechangegloballyislikelytoexacerbatewaterstressandshortagesinonepartoftheArabregion,andincreasedfloodinginanother.Thereisthusaneedtodevelopandimplementadaptationmeasures.Thesestrategiesmayrangefromchangesinlanduseandcroppingpatternstowaterconservation,floodwarningsystems,cropinsuranceetc.

Measures already adopted to counter the growingwater scarcity inArab countries, such aswaterconservation,findingadditionalwatersources(desalinationandwastewaterreuse)andwaterdemandmanagement,willalsoserveasfutureadaptationtoclimatechange.Intheireffortstoadapttoclimatechangeandwaterscarcityproblems,ministriesofwaterinArabcountrieshaveissuedwaterstrategiesandseveralpoliciestoconservewaterandseekalternativesupplies.Inadditiontooptimisingtheuseofrainfall-fedrechargeinsomebasins,augmentingstorageinthemainbasinsandincreasingwater-useefficiency,waterharvestingsystems,wastewaterreuse,virtualwateranddesalinationhavebeenidentifiedaspotentialmeasurestoadapttowaterscarcity.

ThefuturestrategiesthatwillbeformulatedinArabcountriesforcopingwithclimatechangeimpactsonnationalwaterresourceswillbesimilartothecurrentstrategiesforcopingwiththeever-increasingdemands and shortages. A prerequisite for adaptation is the application of an integrated waterresources management strategy at different levels of usage, from individual households to localcommunities,andfromwatershedstocatchments.Currentstrategiesforadaptingtothetwoextremeevents, namely floods and droughts, will hold good even under the projected impacts of climate

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change.Thepresentstructuralornon-structuralmeasuresofsurfacewaterstoragewillcontinuetobevalid.

Improving water availability through the year, soil and water conservation, equitable waterdistribution, traditional water conservation practices, and groundwater recharge are examples ofadaptationstrategies.

Thereisnosingle“best”copingstrategy.Thebestchoiceisafunctionofmanyfactorspertainingtoeconomicefficiency,riskreduction,robustness,resilience,reliabilityetc.Theemergingtechnologiesfor short-term weather forecasting for real-time water management and operations have greatpotentialtoenhancecopingcapabilitiesinthefaceofclimatevariabilityandchange.Suchadvanceswill greatly improve irrigationwatermanagement efficiency. Biotechnology canpotentially help toincreasecropyieldswhilereducingwaterrequirementandtodevelopcropsthatarelessdependentonwater.

Adaptationstrategiesforthewaterresourcessectormaybedevelopedinresponsetotheresultsofwater resourcesmanagementmodels, ormay be suggested as general guidelines to enhance theoverallefficiencyofwaterresourcesoperations.Thesectorhasmuchscopeforadaptationandhasalsoshowncapacitytoadaptinthepast.

Watervulnerabilityandadaptationtoclimatechangeshouldthereforebepartofthesustainablewaterresourcesenvironmentandintegrateddevelopmentpoliciesdesignedto:

• build on the existing policies to protect water resources, the environment and economicdevelopmentagainstthecurrentclimate(theadaptationbaseline);and

• make incremental changes to the adaptation baseline to mitigate the direct and indirecteffectsofclimatechange(climatechangeadaptation).

Taking into account the scarcity of water resources and their anticipated decrease in many Arabcountriesresultingfromclimatechange,thefollowingadaptationmeasurescanbetaken:

• buildinginstitutionalandtechnicalcapacity;• promotinginformationexchangeandmultidisciplinarylinkages;and• strengtheningregionalcooperation.

Mitigating climate change impacts necessitates the enhancement of regional cooperation, sinceclimatechangewillhavean impactonall countries in theArabregion. It isessential toestablisharegionalearlywarningsystem, themainmissionofwhich is the forecastingandriskassessmentofextremeevents(i.e.droughtsandfloods).

FinalisingsharedwaterresourcesagreementsAsmentionedabove,climatechangemayalsoreducesharedwaterresourcessuchastheflowoftheEuphratesandTigris,byasmuchas30to50percent(ESCWA2008).ThesameistrueinthecaseofotherriverssharedbetweenLebanonandJordan. Inthemeantime,waterdemandwillcontinuetoincreaseindifferentcountriesthatsharethesamewaterbodies,duetopopulationgrowthandtheriseinatmospherictemperature,whichleadstoincreasedevapotranspirationratesandanincreaseinwaterdemandforagriculture.Alltheseissueswillbefacedbythedifferentcountriesoftheregion,wheremostwaterresourcesareshared,andwillthereforeraisetheissueofequityandincreasethepotentialforpoliticalconflict.

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Surfacewaterdevelopment• Thedevelopmentanduseof surfacewater shouldbeoptimised through supply-enhancing

measures,includingsurfaceandsubsurfacestorage;theminimisingoflossesduetosurfaceevaporationandseepage;soilandwaterprogrammes;andtheprotectionofsurfacewatersuppliesfrompollution.

• Sustainablemanagementplansshouldbedevelopedforsurfacewaterinwadisystems;opencanalsystemsshouldbeconvertedtoapressurisedpipesystem,givingprioritytomodernisingand upgrading the systems; and precedence should be given towater projects thatmakesignificantcontributionstomeetingrisingmunicipalandindustrialdemand.

• Dams are required for storing floodwater during thewet,winter season and releasing thewatergraduallyduring thesummerseasonwhendemand ishigh.Besides these“ordinary”reservoirs, so-called desert dams (water harvesting) can help to increase groundwaterrecharge and provide water for pastoral use. The use of hafeers, contour bunding, gullyplugging,andcheckdamsanddykesshouldbepromotedtocatchrainwaterandincreasetheamountofwateravailableforagriculturaluse.

GroundwaterprotectionMost groundwater aquifers are exploited at more than double their safe yield on average. Thesustainabilityof irrigation in thehighlandsandBadiaareaswillbegreatlyendangeredunless strictmeasuresaretakentoaddressthisissue.Assuch,thedevelopmentandimplementationofanactionplanisneededinordertoensurethatplansforgroundwaterprotection,management,monitoringandrestorationaredefined,integratedandmanagedinacost-effectivemanner(JSNC2009).

In order to improve the groundwater situation in Jordan, the Ministry of Water and Irrigation isestablishinganintegratedprogrammetoassesstheavailabilityandexploitabilityofallresourcesatratesthatcanbesustainedoverlongperiodsoftime.

Theminingofrenewablegroundwateraquiferswillbechecked,controlled,andreducedtosustainableextraction rates. Theministrywill further encourage applied research activities, including artificialrecharge to increase groundwater supplies, and the employment of new technologies that willoptimisetheoperationanddevelopmentofgroundwatersystemsandpromotetheirmoreefficientandfeasibleuse.

TheexistinglawsinJordanarestrongenoughtocontroltheuseofandprotectgroundwaterresources.However, the application of these laws is still unsatisfactory, suggesting a need for the futurestrengthening of law enforcement through an adequate penalty system. The guidelines for theimplementationofgroundwaterprotectionarebeingprepared.The implementationoftheseareasrequiresnotonlylegal,butalsotechnicalandinstitutional,support.

ThepriorityactionsneededforgroundwaterresourcesprotectioninBahrainare(Al-Jeneidetal.2008):

• theformulationofintegratedwaterresourcesmanagementplanstorationalisewateruseandprotectaquifersfrombeingexcessivelysalinised;and

• thelegalisationandinstitutionalisationofthereuseoftreatedsewagewater.

Enhancingtheuseanddevelopmentofnon-conventionalwaterresourcesNon-conventionalwaterresourcesmaybedefinedaswaterresourcesthatarenotreadilyavailableorsuitable for direct beneficial use, including wastewater reuse, water desalination and weathermodification.Theenhanceduseofalternativewaterresourcessuchasreusedmunicipalwastewater,seawater/brackishwaterdesalination,andtheuseofsubmarinespringswithsignificantflowscanbefoundalong theLebaneseandSyriancoastalareas.Themostcommonsourceofnon-conventional

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wateristhetreatmentofdomesticandindustrialwastewater.Wastewaterreuseisbecomingmorepopular throughout the world, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions, because it can reduceenvironmentalandhealth-relatedhazardsifplannedproperlyandcanalsoincreasecropyieldsduetosupplementalirrigationandthenutrientswithinthewastewater.

Jordanprovidesagoodexampleoftheuseofthissourceofwatertoalleviatewaterscarcity.Inthelastthreedecades,about25municipalwastewatertreatmentplantshavebeeninoperationinJordan.Theplanisfortheeffluentfromtheseplantstobeusedforirrigationaroundtheplantsordischargedtowadisorreservoirs,whereitisdilutedandutilisedforagriculture.

Brackishwater isanothernon-conventionalsourceofwaterthatcanbeutilisedaftertreatment. Inordertofurtherpursuethebrackishwateroption,ministriesofwater intheArabcountriesshouldassess the potential of brackish water resources in terms of sound technical, economic andenvironmental feasibility in all groundwater basins, and then carry out research and studies ondesalinationandontheoptimisationofbrackishwateruseinagricultureandindustry.

WaterqualityandtheenvironmentArabcountrieshavewitnessedsomedeterioration inwaterquality in the last twodecades,duetoindustrial pollution, the overuse of agrochemicals, drainagewater, the overloading of wastewatertreatment plants, the over-pumping of aquifers, seepage from landfills and septic tanks, and theimproper disposal of dangerous chemicals by certain industries. The overloading of the existingwastewater treatmentplantsdue tohighpopulationgrowthand socialdevelopmenthas causedafurtherdeteriorationintheeffluentfrommostoftheplants.Theperformanceofmanyoftheplantsis inadequate, resulting in low-quality effluent. This effluentmayhave an adverse effect onpublichealthduetothepresenceofpathogens,ortotheaccumulationoftoxinsinsoilsirrigatedusingtheeffluent.Furthermore,thepollutionofsurfacewaterandgroundwaterduetoseepagewillresultinadeteriorationofthequalityofsomewaterresourcesandwilllimittheirusefordifferentpurposes.Itisessentialtoenforcestandardsforwastewaterdischargestosewers,treatedeffluentandwaterforotheruses.Thestandardsadoptedshouldtakeintoconsiderationnationalpriorities,economicsandthe availability of water supplies, as well as health and other environmental implications. Theimplementation of standards and their enforcement require facilities and expertise,which involvesignificantcosts.Enforcement, inparticular, requirescommitmentandcoordinationbetweenmanyagencies and at many levels within the government. The adoption and implementation by waterministriesinArabcountries,incooperationwithotherrelatedministries,ofguidelinesforwaterusedinirrigation,increasestheavailabilityofwaterthatcanbeusedinirrigation.

StrengtheningthewaterresourcesmonitoringsystemIt is important to enhance monitoring efforts in order to improve data for weather, climate andhydrological modelling so as to contribute to an understanding of water-related impacts andmanagement strategies. In addition, databases that support water resources and environmentalmanagementshouldbeintegrated.

MeasurestoimprovesystemefficiencyThe overall efficiency of the water resources system is low due to losses in the system, systemconstraintsandinefficientfarmpractices,aswellastofundingconstraintsandconstraintsininflowpatterns. In the precipitation increase scenario, adaptation measures to increase efficiency mayincludetheadoptionofbetterfarmmanagementandirrigationpractices.Specialcarewouldneedtobetakentocontrolhighwatersintherootzone,whichconsiderablyreducecropacreage.Precisionlandlevellingandproperfieldsizingmayberequired.

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ImplementationofintegratedwatershedmanagementpracticesTheimplementationofintegratedwatershedmanagementpracticescanplayanimportantroleintherationalisationofresourceuseandtheallocationandprotectionofwatersources(bothsurfacewaterand groundwater), and pricing and market mechanisms can be used proactively to increase theefficiencyofwateruse.Aneffectiveandeconomicallybeneficialadaptationoptionistheconstructionofdamsonallpotentialwadis.Thefinitenatureofrenewablefreshwatermakesitacriticalnaturalresource to be examined in the context of population growth and climatic changes. Freshwateravailabilityisdictated,toalargeextent,bytheclimate,andparticularlybythetimingandlocationofprecipitationandbyevaporationrates,andvariestremendouslyfromseasontoseason.Watershedprotectionwouldalsohavebenefitsforgroundwaterstorageandfloodalleviation.

UrbanwateruseThere isanurgentneedtodevisepolicies,botheconomicandstructural, forwaterconservation inurbanareas inorderto lowertherisingpressureondrainageandsupplysystemsandto lowerthepressureonsewagetreatment,whichhasbecomeessentialforthepreservationofwaterquality.

FloodcontrolFlashfloodshavevarying impactsondifferentareas(desertwadisandruralareas).Properriskandvulnerabilityanalyses foreach flood-proneareaneed tobecarriedout fora changingclimate.Forvulnerableareas,currenttopographicalmapsareneeded.Floodcontrolauthoritiesshouldkeepup-to-daterecordsofsettlementsandinfrastructuredevelopment.Clearancefromthefloodprotectionagencymayberequiredfortheconstructionofsettlementsandinfrastructureinnewareas.

ResearchprogrammesInArabcountries,fewandlimitedstudieshavebeenpublishedinthefieldofclimatechange,andtherearemanygapsthatstillneedtobefilledinthefuture,especiallypertainingtothevulnerabilityandadaptationofthewaterresources,agricultureandhealthsectors.Climatechangestudiesarebased,inmostcases,ontheuseofmodelling,remotesensingandprojectiontechniques,but,duetothelackof facilities and the low level of allocated funds for Arab research institutions, empirical andexperimentaltechniquesarestillapplied.

The assessmentof climate change impacts, andof vulnerability and adaptation to climate change,requires awide range of physical, biological and socioeconomicmodels,methods, tools and data.Methods for assessing vulnerability, impacts and adaptation are gradually improving, but are stillinadequate to help policy makers formulate appropriate adaptation measures. This is due touncertainties in regional climate projections, the unpredictable responses of natural andsocioeconomicsystems,andtheinabilitytoforeseefuturetechnologicaldevelopments.

Continuing researchwill lead tobetterandmoreprecise informationabout the impactsof climatechange on water resources over the Arab region. Using statistical and dynamic downscaling withregional models opens doors to generating high-resolution climate change scenarios and toinvestigatingtheirimpactsonaregionalscale.

Naturalresourceplanningforthefutureisdifficultwithoutmoresignificantandreliabledatathattakesintoconsiderationdemographicvariations,andwithoutanunderstandingofthephenomenologicalresponses of the biological ecosystem to climatic changes.Mathematicalmodels and research areneeded in order to find out the phenomenological responses of various subsystems of theenvironment,making it possible to assess the impactsof climate changeon sectors such aswaterresources.

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Few and limited studies onmitigation and adaptation have been developed in Arab countries. InMorocco,adroughtinsuranceprogrammebasedonrainfallcontractsisanimportantexampleofanadaptation strategy and had a potentially significant benefit over the current scheme,minimisingdroughthazardandprotectingcerealproduction(IUCN2003).ShorelineprotectionalongthenortherncoastofEgyptisanotherobviousexampleofanadaptationstrategy(El-Raey1999).

PublicawarenessandstakeholdercapacityprogrammesPublicawarenessofclimatechangeinArabcountriesisstillatanearlystageofdevelopment,andmostcountrieshavehighlightedthechallengestheyfaceinimprovingit.Arabsocietyisnotawareoftheconsequencesofglobalclimatechangeandgreaterenvironmentalpublicawarenessisneeded.Thisprocessneedstobefacilitatedbypublicdebates,increasedmediainterestintheproblem,andmoreintenseactivitiesbyNGOs.Publicinterestandsupportarecrucialfortheapplicationofthelong-termgovernmentalstrategyandclimatechangepolicy.FewNGOsinArabcountriesareinterestedinclimatechangeorthedisseminationofrelatedinformation.

There isaneed forcapacitybuilding toenable theenvironmentalauthority toplayamajor role inplanning, coordinating and implementing adaptation programmes of action. The capacity of theenvironmental authority needs to be strengthened in terms of human, financial, technical andtechnological resources.Awarenesscanberaisedviaworkshops, radioandtelevisionprogrammes,newspapers,films,pamphletsandwebsites.

BarrierstoincreasedadaptivecapacityEach country has its own specific barriers to the implementation of adaptation and mitigationmeasures,suchaslimitationsinfinancialandtechnicalresources,humanandinstitutionalcapacity,thelegislativeframework,andpublicsupport.ThevulnerabilityandadaptationassessmentsinthefirstandsecondnationalcommunicationscarriedoutbyvariousArabcountries identified the followingbarrierstoadaptivecapacityinthewatersector:

• inadequateconveyance,collectionandtreatmentinfrastructure;• poorormissingindustrialpre-treatment;• poororinadequatefacilityoperationmaintenanceprogrammes;• inadequateaccesstotechnology;• insufficientcapitaltofundadomesticwastewaterpollutionmanagementprogramme;• limitedhumanresources,equipmentandfacilitiesatwaterministriesaswellasotherrelated

ministries;• alackofcoordinationandthepoorexchangeofknowledgeandexperienceamongagencies

associated with wastewater reuse as well as with national or municipal-level planningprogrammes;

• weak capacity in terms of conducting surveys, assessments, investigations and appliedscientificstudiestoevaluateandpredicthealthimpactscausedbywastewaterreuse;

• the limitednumberof educational andawareness-raisingprogrammeson safewastewaterreuse;

• alackofenforcementofexistingregulations;• inadequateinventoriesofcommunities’useoftreatedwastewater;• the lack of classification of sensitive or unique water bodies, watersheds, habitats or

ecosystems;• poorormissingmonitoringforassessingenvironmentalprogress;• lackofstakeholderparticipation;• limitedstudiesondiseasesassociatedwithwastewaterdischargeorreuse;

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• lackoffinancialresourcestoimplementclimatechangeadaptationmeasures;• lackofaclearandspecificlegalandpolicyframeworkforclimatechangeissuesinthecountry

(Thereisnolegalframeworkdirectedtoensuringthatclimatechangeissuesatvariouslevelsare properly institutionalised in the planning process. This is because most adaptationinterventions that are identified to reduce the risks of increasing climate variabilitywouldrequirethefurther“fine-tuning”ofexistingpoliciesandprogrammestomakethemrelevantandrobust.);

• lackofawarenessoftheextentoftheproblem,andinparticularlackofawarenessofpossibleactionsthatcouldbetaken(Thislackofawarenessexistsatalllevels,fromnational-levelpolicymakers to sectoral and local-level officials, as well as among civil society and the mostvulnerable communities themselves.Awareness raising is therefore clearly amajor areaofinitialactiontobeprioritised.);

• lack of incorporation of climate change impacts when developing policies, plans andprogrammes in some of the most climate sensitive sectors (e.g. water management,agriculture,disastermanagement,etc.)(Althoughtheneedforsuchintegrationisbeingslowlyrealised,actualintegrationintheplanning,designandimplementationofpoliciesneedstobeacceleratedconsiderably.);

• lack of adequate tools, knowledge and methodologies to provide guidance and advice todecisionmakers(Thisisequallyapplicableatthetechnicallevelindifferentsectors,includingwater management, but also at the grassroots levels in the vulnerable communitiesthemselves. Generating sound knowledge, data, methodologies and tools, and thendisseminatingthem,thusneedtobeimportantactivitiesintheshortterm.);

• lackofprivatesectorinvolvementinissuesrelatedtoclimatechange;• limited understanding of concrete best practices/activities in terms of climate change

adaptation;and• weakmonitoringandevaluationplans, includingenvironmental impactassessments, anda

lackofbestpracticesandstandardsthatconsiderclimatechangeimplicationsandclimateasa non-static element. Current efforts to address the problem of climate change aremorereactivethanfuturistic.

TowardstrategiesforadaptationtoclimatechangeinArabcountriesSinceclimatechangeissopervasiveandmayhaveanimpactonalleconomicactivities,itisclearthateveryoneispotentiallyinvolvedinthedevelopmentandimplementationofadaptationmeasures.Thusafirstquestionis:Whoadapts?Ifadaptationislefttoeveryonetheprobabilityisthatitwillbelefttono one. The more pertinent question therefore concerns the distribution of responsibility foradaptation.

Todevelopacomprehensivenationalactionprogrammeonclimatechange(NAPCC)inArabcountries,thefollowingpointsshouldbeconsidered:

1) ThefutureNAPCCshouldbenotonlyaimedatmeetingUNFCCCobligations,butalsoatsettingpriorities for action and integrating climate change concerns into other national and sectoraldevelopmentplansandprogrammes.

2) During the development of the NAPCC, lessons learned from past climate change andenvironmentalplanningeffortsshouldbeconsidered.Theseinclude:• integrationwithotherdevelopmentplansandprogrammesandmeasuresthathavemultiple

benefits;• theinvolvementofkeygovernmentalandnon-governmentalstakeholders;

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• apracticalorientation;• flexibility that allows the plan to be regularly updated in order to reflect changing

circumstances;and• ahighlevelofawarenessamongpolicymakersandstakeholdersonclimatechangeissues.

3)TheNAPCCshouldbedevelopedasanintegralpartofothernationalandsectoralactionplansandpolicydocuments.ThesuccessofthemeasuresandactionsthatwillbeidentifiedintheNAPCCwillthereforedependdirectlyonthedegreeofintegrationofthesenationalandsectoraldevelopmentandactiondocuments.

Climatechangeconcernsandproblemsarenotreflecteddirectlyinthesepolicydocuments.However,someofthemincludeclimatechangematters.Intheabsenceofsuchclimatechange–relatedissuesinapolicydocument,theseissuesshouldbetakenintoaccountinimplementingactivitiesundertheseprogrammesor plans. Existing environmental regulations, sectoral developmentpolicydocuments,andotherrelatedlawsneedtobeamendedifthisisrequiredforadaptationormitigationactivities.

Thepassingofnew lawsor theamendmentofexisting laws— inparticularpolicyordevelopmentprogrammes or plans guiding different economic sectors — should follow national and sectoralstrategiesandpoliciesrelatedtoclimatechangeconcerns.

4) The NAPCC should be based on pre-feasibility studies of climate change impacts, adaptationassessments, GHG inventories and GHG mitigation analyses. The NAPCC should include a set ofmeasures,actionsandstrategiesthatenablevulnerablesectorstoadapttopotentialclimatechangeandmitigateGHGemissions. Theunderlyingphilosophyof thesemeasures is that they shouldnotadverselyaffecteconomicdevelopmentandcurrentlifestyles.

5)TheimplementationstrategiesintheNAPCCshouldincludeinstitutionalarrangements,legislativeframework, financial resources, human capacity building, education and public awareness, andresearchprogrammes,aswellascoordinationwithothernationalandsectoraldevelopmentplans.Existingbarrierstoimplementationshouldbealsoidentified,aswellaspossibilitiestoovercomesuchbarriers. Finally, theprogrammeshouldconsiderseveraladaptationmeasures forwater resources,agriculture,livestock,rangeland,coastalresourcesandhumanhealth,aswellasotherrelatedsectors.

6) Research activities should focus on the systematic observation and monitoring of the climatesystem,developmentofclimatescenarios,vulnerabilityassessment,potentialimpactsonecosystemsandsociety,andpossiblemeasures toadapt toclimatechangeandmitigateGHGemissionsat thenationallevel.Aregularupdateoffindingsandoutputsusingthelatestscientificknowledgeofglobalclimatechangeproblemswillbecritical.Basedoncomprehensivestudiesandanalyses, theNAPCCshouldberevisedfromtimetotimeinordertofacilitatetheimplementationofcountry’spolicyonclimatechange.

7)Itisrecommendedthataconsiderableamountofcapacitybuildingandinstitutionalstrengtheningtake place. Education and public awareness activities should be organised for decision makers,technicalexperts,stakeholders,thegeneralpublic,studentsandschoolchildren.AregularreviewofthelevelofpublicawarenessofclimatechangewillbeessentialtoincreasepublicparticipationintheGHGmitigation activities. Options for informal education in the field of environmental protectionincludeuseofmassmedia(newspapers,television,radioetc.)andorganisationofconferencesandworkshopsforspecialists,thegeneralpublicandthepress.

8)Socialandeconomicinstrumentsplayincreasinglyimportantrolesinthesuccessfulimplementationof the NAPCC. Economic instruments could take a limiting (taxes) or promoting (subsidies etc.)

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approach.Limitingmeasuresincludepollutiontax,inputtax,producttax,exporttaxes,importtariffs,etc. Promoting measures may include subsidies, soft loans, grants, location incentives, subsidisedinterest, revolving funds, sectoral funds, eco-funds, green funds, tax differentiation or exemption,investmenttaxescredits,taxreliefforenvironmentalequipmentorinvestment,etc.Therefore, it isnecessary to establish economic mechanisms and instruments to implement the NAPCC, and tointroduceanappropriatelegalframework.

9) The availability of funding sources is a prerequisite for the successful implementation of theadaptationandmitigationstrategiesandprojectsidentifiedintheNAPCC.

Possiblesourcesofsuchfundinginclude:

• governmentfundsandresources;• localandinternationalenvironmentalfunds;• privatesectorinvestors;• theGlobalEnvironmentFacility(GEF);• CleanDevelopmentMechanisminitiatives;and• theUNFCCCandKyotoProtocolImplementationMechanismssuchasTransferofTechnology,

etc.

Therearecurrentlyfourdifferentfundsforsupportingadaptationmeasuresinnon-AnnexIcountries:theSpecialClimateChangeFund(SCCF)andLeastDevelopedCountryFund(LDCF)undertheUNFCC,theAdaptationFundundertheKyotoProtocol,andtheStrategicPriorityonAdaptation(SPA)oftheGlobalEnvironmentFacility.

ConclusionsThisstudyrecognisesanalarmingdeficiencyinscientificandtechnologicalcapabilities,aswellasinthepoliticalwilltoaddressandfaceproblemsposedbyclimatechangeintheArabregion.Notenoughscientificfacilitiesexisttostudythisphenomenon,insufficientfundsareallocatedtosuchresearch,andthestudiesthathavebeenundertakenstillleavegapstobefilled.Climatechangemitigationandadaptationneedtobeintegratedintodevelopmentstrategies,andtheissuesofplanning,scientificcapacity,stakeholderinvolvementandpublicawarenessneedtobeurgentlyaddressed.

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3. WaterSecurityActionPlanningforSustainableGrowthMENAWaterWorldCafé2016BackgroundPaper,WorkingGroup3

Prof.SlobodanMilutinović,UniversityofNiš,SerbiaDr.RadojeLaušević,REC

Watersecurity–AburningissuefortheMENAregionAsdefinedbytheGlobalWaterPartnership(GWP),watersecurity,atanylevelfromthehouseholdtotheglobal,meansthateverypersonhasaccesstoenoughsafewaterataffordablecosttoleadaclean,healthyandproductivelife,whileensuringthatthenaturalenvironmentisprotectedandenhanced1.TheMinisterialDeclarationoftheWorldWaterForumII(WWF2),“WaterSecurityinthe21stCentury”,listssevenmainchallengesinachievingwatersecurity:

1) meetingbasicneeds;

2) securingfoodsupply;

3) protectingecosystems;

4) sharingwaterresources;

5) managingrisks;

6) valuingwater;and

7) governingwaterwisely.

The issueofwater security—definedasanacceptable levelofwater-related risks tohumansandecosystems, coupled with the availability of water of sufficient quantity and quality to supportlivelihoods, national security, human health and ecosystem services — has been the object ofincreasedacademic andpolicy interestover thepastdecade. In2009, theWorldEconomic Forum(WEF)prioritisedwatersecurityasaglobalrisk,statingthat“watersecurityisthegossamerthatlinkstogethertheweboffood,energy,climate,economicgrowth,andhumansecuritychallengesthattheworldeconomyfacesoverthenextdecades”(WorldEconomicForum2009).In2013,theUN-WaterTask Force on Water Security proposed a working definition of water security developed fromcontributionsmadebythebroadrangeoforganisations,agencies,programmesandinstitutionsthatformUN-Water. It aims to capture the dynamic and constantly evolving dimensions ofwater andwater-relatedissues,offeringaholisticoutlookforaddressingwaterchallengesthroughtheumbrellaofwatersecurity,andisintendedtoserveasastartingpointfordialogueonwatersecurityintheUNsystem.

Watersecurityarisesattwointerconnected levels: local/nationalandregional/international.Atthelocal/nationallevel,thesecurityofaccesstotheresourceisthecrucialproblem.Consequently,goodwatergovernanceappearstobepivotaltoachievewatersecurity.

1Variousdefinitionsofwatersecurityhaveemerged:GreyandSadoff(2007)definewatersecurityastheavailabilityofwaterofanacceptablequalityandquantityforhealth,livelihoods,ecosystemsandproduction,coupledwithanacceptablelevelofwater-relatedrisktopeople,environmentsandeconomies.UN-Waterdefineswatersecurityasthecapacityofapopulationto safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality water for sustaining livelihoods, humanwellbeing and socioeconomic development, for ensuring protection against water-borne pollution and water-relateddisasters,andforpreservingecosystemsinaclimateofpeaceandpoliticalstability(UN-Water2013).

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WhyareMENAcountriesvulnerabletowaterinsecurity?TheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)isthedriestandmostwaterscarceregionintheworld,andthisisincreasinglyaffectingtheeconomicandsocialdevelopmentofmostcountriesoftheregion.Theregion’spopulation,whichcomprises6.3percentoftheworld’stotal,currentlyusesonly0.7percentof the world’s available freshwater resources. In addition, the MENA region faces other majordevelopmentchallenges.Theseincludearapidlygrowingyoungpopulation,highunemploymentrates,and vulnerability to price shocks and climate change. The region also faces political and securitychallenges,includingextremism.

WhyiswatersecurityparticularlyimportantfortheMENAregion?Firstly,theregionasawhole,andmostofthecountries,areseverelyexposedtothefollowingthreats:

• Water is already scarce in theMENA region, as will be further discussed in the followingchapters.Theregionisexposedtobothphysicalwaterscarcity(limitedaccesstowater,causedby water shortages or unsustainable management/over-abstraction) and socioeconomicscarcity(society’seconomicinabilitytodevelopadditionalwaterresourcesoritssocialinabilitytoadapttotheconditionsimposedbyphysicalscarcity).Thisscarcitywillonlygrowovertime,duetoanincreasingpopulation,expectedeconomicgrowth,andthelikelyimpactsofclimatechangeonwateravailabilityanddemand.

• There is low institutional capacity to manage water resources and water supply services,particularly at the local and community level. Water governance deficiencies in MENAcountriesincludefailuretoprovidesufficientwaterforpoorandmarginalisedareas,alackofattention towater legislationand infrastructure,andan inability tobalance thecompetingdemands of socioeconomic needs and the environment. This will also be discussed in thefollowingchapters.

• Thepovertytrap,widelypresentintheMENAregion,furthercomplicatestheissueofwatersecurity.Theneedforwatersecurityisparticularlyacuteinruralandpoorcommunities.Wateriscriticalforeconomicgrowthandsocialwellbeing,thusimprovedwatergovernancerequiresanunderstandingofthesocial,economicandinstitutionallinksbetweenreducingpovertyandensuringaccesstosafewater.

Secondly, the Fourth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change projectsdramaticchanges inclimateacrosstheMENAregionduringthiscentury.Underanaverageclimatechangescenario,theMENAregion’swatershortagewillincreasefivefoldby2050—fromtoday’s42km3toapproximately200km3(WorldBank2012).Drinkingwaterserviceswillbecomemoreerraticthan they already are. Cities will come to rely more andmore on expensive desalination and onemergency supplies brought by tanker or barge. Service outages place stress on expensive waternetworkanddistributioninfrastructure.Inirrigatedagriculture,unreliablewaterserviceswilldepressfarmers’incomesandlowerproductivity.Theeconomicandphysicaldislocationsassociatedwiththedepletionofaquifersortheunreliabilityofsupplieswillincrease.Allofthesedevelopmentswillhaveshort-andlong-termeffectsoneconomicgrowthandpovertyandwill increasinglyputpressureonpublicbudgets(WorldBank2012).

In reaction to the rapiddepletionofwater resources, thedeterioration inwaterquality, increasedwater demand, and changes in water endowments that are affecting environmental quality, foodsecurity,municipalinfrastructureandeconomicdevelopmentinmostsocietiesoftheMENAregion,the Regional Environmental Center (REC)2 is implementing the project “Sustainable Use ofTransboundaryWater Resources andWater SecurityManagement (WATER SUM)”3. The 36-month2http://www.rec.org/3http://www.watersum.rec.org/

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project is fundedbytheSwedish InternationalDevelopmentCooperationAgency (Sida)4 fromApril2014toApril2017.TheoverallobjectiveoftheprojectistopromoteandenhancesustainablewaterresourcesmanagementandtopromoteacomprehensiveandintegratedapproachtowatersecurityandecosystemservicesforsustainabledevelopmentinbeneficiarycountriesintheMENAregioninordertohelphaltthedownwardspiralofpoverty,biodiversitylossandenvironmentaldegradation.

The project is divided into two components: Component 1, “Water ResourcesManagement GoodPracticesandKnowledgeTransfer”(WaterPOrT);andComponent2,“WaterandSecurity”(WaSe).TheobjectiveoftheWaterPOrTcomponentistoacceleratethemoresustainableuseoftheregion’swaterresources and to promote a strategic approach to climate change adaptation, while the WaSecomponentobjectiveistopromoteacomprehensiveandintegratedapproachtowatersecurityandecosystemservicesforsustainabledevelopmentineightselectedself-governingterritoriesinJordanandTunisia5.TheWaSecomponentisapartofeffortstocombatwaterscarcity,reducethethreatofconflicts,haltthedownwardspiralofpoverty,biodiversitylossandenvironmentaldegradation,andincreaseoverallhumanwell-beingwithinthewidercontextofensuringregionalpeaceandstability.Water security in the post-2015 development agenda: How can the MENA Water,GrowthandStabilityInitiativecontribute?

Ofallournaturalresources,waterunderpinssustainabledevelopmentasperhapsnoneother.Food,energy, health, industry, biodiversity— there is no sphere of planetary life or human endeavouruntouchedbywater.Waterusehasbeengrowingatmorethantwicetherateofpopulationincreaseinthelastcentury.Acentralchallengeforsustainabledevelopmentishowtobalancethecompetingusesofwater;ensurethattheneedsofall—especiallyofthepoorandmarginalised—aremet;andmaintainhealthyanddiverseecosystems.ItisthereforenosurprisethatwaterappearsexplicitlyasarecurringthemeinmanyofthenewlyestablishedSustainableDevelopmentGoals6,andtheproposedtargetsthatserveasguidepoststowardstheirachievement.

Sustainablewatermanagementisakeydriverofeconomicactivity,povertyalleviationandhealth,andaprerequisiteforgrowthandstability.Poorwatermanagement,lackofgoodwatergovernanceandlimitedawarenesscontributetowatersupplyvulnerabilityandwaterpollutionandareasourceofconflictsthatconstraingrowthandthreatenbothsecurityandthewater–energy–food–climatenexus.Moreover,waterhasacrucialroleinalldimensionsofsustainabledevelopment:itislinkedtovariouskeyglobalproblemsandtoallhumanandeconomicactivities.Thewatergoalsandtargetsdirectlyaddress the development aims of societies, promote human dignity and ensure achievements aresustainableoverthe longterm.Mobilisingwater iscriticalwithinthepost-2015agenda inordertorealiseeconomicandsocialpotential.

WaterwasrecognisedasafundamentalhumanrightbytheUNGeneralAssemblyinJuly2010(A-RES-64-292);bytheHumanRightsCouncilinSeptember2010(HRCResolution15-9);bytheArabCharteronHumanRights(whichenteredintoforceonMarch15,2008);andbytheconstitutionsofanumberofArabstates(Moroccoin2011,TunisiaandEgyptin2014).Thislegalrecognitionguaranteestherightofallpeopletoequitableaccesstosafewaterasabasichumanrequirement,whilealsoenhancingpublicparticipationinwatermanagement.

4SidacontributionID520302345InJordan,themunicipalitiesofAl-Karak,Jerash,AlSaltandAjloun.InTunisia,theGovernorateofBeja:NefzaDelegation;GovernorateofZaghouan:BirMcherguaDelegation;GovernorateofGabes:MatmataDelegation;andGovernorateofSidiBouzid:SidiAliBenAounDelegation.6“TransformingOurWorld:The2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment.”DraftresolutionreferredtotheUNsummitfortheadoptionofthepost-2015developmentagendabytheGeneralAssemblyatits69thsession,September18,2015.TheUnitedNationshasset17newSustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDGs)asglobalguidelinestoeradicateextremepovertyby2030.Moreathttp://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals.

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InSeptember2015,headsofstatefromallaroundtheworldgatheredinNewYorktoadoptthe2030AgendaforSustainableDevelopment,anambitious“planofactionforpeople,planetandprosperity”,with 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and 169 targets, aiming at nothing less than“transformingourworld”.

TheWater,GrowthandStabilityconference,whichtookplaceonApril26–28,2016,inSzentendre,Hungary,co-organisedbytheRegionalEnvironmentalCenterforCentralandEasternEurope(REC)andtheMinistryofForeignAffairsandTradeofHungaryasapre-eventtotheBudapestWaterSummit2016,constitutesamilestone intheRECWATERSUMproject.Followingfieldmissions,workshops,trainingsandambassadorialbriefingsfortheMENAregion,theconferencegatheredabroadspectrumof key stakeholders from throughout the MENA region, including representatives of ministries inchargeofwatermanagementandwatersecurity,localauthorities,internationalorganisations,NGOs,academia and the business community. Delegates at theWater, Growth and Stability conferencelaunchedtheWater,GrowthandStabilityInitiative(WGSIni),aknowledge-basedplatform;adynamicnetwork of water experts from theMENA region and Europe; and an e-learning tool for capacitybuildingandthedisseminationoflessonslearned.

ThemainobjectivesoftheWGSIniareto:

• support the MENA region and its water stakeholders in advancing water management atnational and local level while also shoring up regional cooperation and engagement andidentifyingviabletoolsandsolutions;

• stimulate themore sustainable use of the region’s water resources, stronger cooperationbetweenpivotalactors,andalong-termapproachtoclimatechangeadaptation;

• promoteacomprehensiveandintegratedapproachtowatersecurityandecosystemservicesandraiseawarenessoftheincreasinglyinterrelatednatureofourglobalresourcesystemsandtheirimpactonwatersustainability;

• developaframeworkprogrammewithintheWGSIniinlinewiththeprioritiesofcountriesintheMENAregion;and

• mobiliseadditionalresourcesandpartnerstoexpandtheestablishedframeworksteeredbytheMENAregion,andidentifysynergieswithotheron-goingprogrammesandinitiatives.

TheWGSIniaimstoactivelycontributetosomeoftheSDGs,asoutlinedinFigure1andbelow.

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Figure1:TheWGSInicontributiontotheSDGs

SDG6:CleanwaterandsanitationClean,accessiblewaterforallisanessentialpartoftheworldwewanttolivein.Waterisatthecoreofsustainabledevelopmentand iscritical forsocioeconomicdevelopment,healthyecosystemsandhumansurvival itself. It isvital forreducingtheglobalburdenofdiseaseand improvingthehealth,welfareandproductivityofpopulations.Moreover,itisattheheartofadaptationtoclimatechange,servingasthecrucial linkbetweentheclimatesystem,humansocietyandtheenvironment.This iswhytheSDGscoverawiderangeofdriversacrossthethreepillarsofsustainabledevelopment.Theyalsoincludeadedicatedgoalonwaterandsanitation(SDG6)thatsetsoutto“ensureavailabilityandsustainablemanagementofwaterandsanitationforall”.TheWGSIniaimstocontributesignificantlytotheachievementofSDG6throughactionstargetingtheachievementofuniversalandequitableaccesstosafeandaffordabledrinkingwater,aswellasaccesstoadequateandequitablesanitationandhygiene forall,payingspecialattention to theneedsofwomen,girlsandothers invulnerablesituations; improve water quality; increase water-use efficiency; implement integrated waterresourcesmanagementatalllevels;andprotectandrestorewater-relatedecosystems.Moreover,theWGSIni directly supports the achievement of SDG 6 through the expansion of internationalcooperationandcapacity-building support todevelopingcountries inwater-and sanitation-relatedactivitiesandprogrammes.

SDG11:SustainablecitiesandcommunitiesHalfofhumanity—3.5billionpeople—liveincitiestoday.Thesustainable,efficientandequitablemanagementofwaterincitieshasneverbeenasimportantasintoday'sworld,andespeciallyinMENAcountries.Making cities and communities inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainablemeans ensuringaccess to safe and affordable housing, and upgrading slum settlements. It also involves improving

Water, growth and

stability

SD Goal 6: Ensureaccessto

waterandsanitationforall SD Goal 3:

Ensurehealthylivesandpromotewell-beingforall

atallages

SD Goal 11: Makecities

inclusive,safe,resilientandsustainable

SD Goal 8: Promoteinclusiveandsustainableeconomicgrowth,employmentanddecentworkfor

all

SD Goal 12: Ensure

sustainableconsumptionand

productionpatterns

SD Goal 13: Takeurgentactiontocombatclimatechangeandits

impacts

SD Goal 16: Promotejust,peacefuland

inclusivesocieties

SD Goal 5: Achievegenderequalityandempowerall

womenandgirls

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urban planning and management in ways that are both participatory and inclusive. Two mainchallengesrelatedtowaterareaffectingthesustainabilityofhumanurbansettlements:the lackofaccess to safe water and sanitation, and increasing water-related disasters such as floods anddroughts.Thosewhosuffermostfromthesewater-relatedchallengesaretheurbanpoor.TheWGSInicontributestotheachievementofSDG11throughtheempowermentoflocalcommunitiesandcitiesin MENA countries for better local water security planning and the active involvement of localstakeholders in theplanningprocess. Theparticipatory localwater securityplanningmethodology,developedasapartoftheinitiative,willbuildthecapacitiesofMENAcitiesandhelpthemtobecomemoreresilientandsustainableinregardtowatersecurity.

SDG12:ResponsibleconsumptionandproductionSustainable consumption and production is about promoting resource and energy efficiency andsustainable infrastructure,andprovidingaccess tobasic servicesandabetterqualityof life forall.Currently,theexcessiveuseofwateriscontributingtoglobalwaterstress,andthisisparticularlythecaseinMENAcountries.Intheabsenceofanychangeinconsumptionpatterns,by2030theshortfallbetweenthedemandfor,andsupplyof,waterisprojectedtobe40percent.Thisbeingthecase,SDG12promotessustainableconsumptionandproductionpatterns,includingtheefficientmanagementofwaterasthemostimportantnaturalresource.TheWGSInicontributestotheachievementofSDG12 through the establishment of an open platform for discussion about water efficiency andsustainableinfrastructureforaccesstowater,whiletryingtoinvolveallimportantstakeholdersfromthepublicsector(nationalandlocallevels),civilsocietyandthebusinesscommunity.

SDG3:Goodhealthandwell-beingRecognisingtheinterdependenceofhealthanddevelopment,SDG3aspirestoensurehealthandwell-being for all, to achieve universal health coverage, and to provide access to safe and effectivemedicines and vaccines for all. Water, sanitation and hygiene (WaSH) interventions have beendescribedas“criticaldeterminantsofhealth”thatpreventthefecal-oraltransmissionofpathogens,while hygiene promotion has been identified as having one of the greatest cost-benefit ratios ofdiseasecontrolinterventions.Havingbeendevelopedasaresultoflocalneedsandaspirations,andinline with national water priorities in selected MENA countries, the WGSIni aims to contributesignificantlytowater-relatedhealthandwell-beinggoalsthroughvariouscapacity-buildingmeasuresand through the direct involvement of local communities in setting objectives and water securityplanning.

SDG8:DecentworkandeconomicgrowthWaterhasalwaysplayedakeyroleineconomicdevelopment,andeconomicdevelopmenthasalwaysbeenaccompaniedbywaterdevelopment.Mostofthisgrowthwillhappenindevelopingcountries(likemostMENAcountries)thathavelimitedcapacitytodealwiththisrapidchange;andgrowthwillalso lead toan increase in thenumberofpeople living inslums,whichoftenhaveverypoor livingconditions,includinginadequatewaterandsanitationfacilities.Therefore,thedevelopmentofwaterresourcesforeconomicgrowth,socialequityandenvironmentalsustainabilitywillbeclosely linkedwithsustainabledevelopment.AsformulatedinSDG8,watershallpromote“sustained,inclusiveandsustainablegrowth”inanequitableandreasonablemanner,thuscontributingtopovertyreductionandtonarrowingthegapbetweenrichandpooreverywhere.TheWGSIniwillplaceaspecialemphasisonwatersecurityasanenablerforsustainablegrowthbysupportingMENAgovernmentsandlocalcommunities inwater securityplanning and integratedwatermanagement throughopendialoguebetweenstakeholders.

SDG13:ClimateactionClimatechangewillcompoundpressuresonresources.Furthermore,thesepressureswillbeunevenlydistributed around the world, with the greatest impacts occurring in populations and locationscharacterisedbylowresilience.WateristheprimarymediumthroughwhichclimatechangeinfluencesEarth’secosystemsandthuslivelihoodsandthewell-beingofsocieties.Strengtheningresilienceand

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theadaptivecapacitiesofmorevulnerableregions,suchastheMENAregion,mustgohandinhandwitheffortstoraiseawarenessandintegratemeasuresintonationalandlocalpoliciesandstrategies.Adaptationtoclimatechangeisurgent,andwaterplaysapivotalroleinsuchefforts.TorecognisethisrealityandtorespondaccordinglypresentsdevelopmentopportunitiesfortheMENAregion,andtheWGSIni aims to emphasise climate action as one of themost important needs for developmentalplanningintheregion,atboththenationalandlocallevel.

SDG16:Peace,justiceandstronginstitutionsGoal 16 is dedicated to promoting peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development,providingaccesstojusticeforall,andbuildingeffective,accountableinstitutionsatalllevels.ImportanttargetswithinthisSDGaretodevelopeffective,accountableandtransparentinstitutionsatalllevels,toensurepublicaccesstoinformation,andtoprotectfundamentalfreedoms.Thismeansthatwatersecurity–relatedactionsintheregionshouldbebasedonstronginstitutionsandinstitutionalsupport,and also that bottom-up empowerment should be fostered, including support for home-growninstitutionsandreformersandfacilitatorsofcarefullyplanneddecentralisation.ThisiswhytheWGSIniaims toempowernationaland localgovernments inMENAcountries, civil society,andparticularlywomen’sgrassrootsorganisations.

SDG5:GenderequalityEmpowering women and promoting gender equality is crucial to accelerating sustainabledevelopment.Ithasbecomeincreasinglyacceptedthatwomenshouldplayanimportantroleinwatermanagementand that this role couldbeenhanced through the strategyofgendermainstreaming.Understandinggenderroles,relationsandinequalitiescanhelpexplainthechoicespeoplemakeandtheirdifferentoptions.Involvingbothwomenandmeninintegratedwaterresourcesinitiativescanincreaseprojecteffectivenessandefficiency.TheWGSIniputsspecialemphasisongenderissuesinwater security andwill provide aparticular forum forwomen's grassrootsorganisations todiscusswaterissuesandtoassistlocalcommunitiesinwatersecurityplanningandnationalgovernmentsinintegratedwatermanagementplanningandimplementation.

Localwatersecurityactionplans–AwaytomoveforwardinMENAcountries

Localwatersecurityactionplanninghasbeengivenapivotalplace in theWGSIni.Why localwatersecurity?Atthelocallevel,waterinsecurity—eitherwaterscarcityorlowwaterquality—mayleadto political instability or conflict, often exacerbated by attempts at profiteering through privateuncontrolledsalesofwater.Threats towater resourcesorecosystemscan furtheraggravate theseconditions7. To achieve water security, good water governance is essential. It requires capableinstitutions supported by well-developed legislative and policy instruments. However, theimplementation of any policy in the field of poverty reduction, sustainable development and theconservation of biodiversity is impossible without the active participation and ownership of localcommunitiesandlocalgovernmentsalongwiththehelpoftheirstrategicpartners(suchasnationalauthorities,CSOsandbusinesses).Localwatergovernanceisthereforeanessentialelementofoverallgoodwatergovernance.

Wetrustthatlocalwatergovernancecanbeimprovedthroughinitiatingandsupportingtheprocessofdevelopinglocalwatersecurityactionplans(LWSAPs)thatmirrornational/regional/internationalpolicypriorities,butaddresswatersecurityissuesatlocallevelasapreconditionforthewell-beingoflocalpopulations.ThedevelopmentofLWSAPsalsoensurestheapplicationofanintegratedapproachtowatermanagementasameansofenhancingwatersecurity, showcasing thedirectandtangibleresults of supporting water-related dialogue and capacity building. On the other hand, theimplementation of measures for achieving water security locally can have important impactsregionally,particularlyfordownstreamusers.

7WaterSecurity&theGlobalWaterAgenda-AUN-WaterAnalyticalBrief.UnitedNationsUniversity,2013

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A focus on local water security contributes to improving water access for local populations. It isimportanttomentionthatthisisnotwatersecurityforallwaterusers.Forexample,itdoesnotfocuson the large-scale irrigationnetwork,oron theenergy-producing sector.Nor is it a framework forcomprehensivenationalwatersecuritythatshouldfocusonallwaterusers.AlthoughtheLWSAPfocusisontheprovisionofwaterforthelocalpopulation(e.g.themunicipality),itacknowledgesthatotherwaterusersareimportantandthattheirneedsareinterlinkedwithlocalones.

The LWSAP process in Jordan and Tunisia was designed to comprise two interrelated steps: anassessmentofthecurrentstatusofwatersecurity;andthedevelopmentofamanagementoractionplan.Theplanningmethodology,describedinthepublication“LocalWaterSecurityActionPlanningManual”(Lauševićetal.2016)8,appliedelementsfromtwoassessmentmethodologies:WaterSecurityStatusIndicators(WSSI);andtheCanadianWaterSustainabilityIndex(CWSI).Themanualisastep-by-stepguidebookforpractitionerswhoaredevelopingLWSAPsinlocalcommunities.Theauthorshavecompiled an original methodology comprising seven interrelated activities covering stakeholderanalysis, public opinion assessment, local water security assessment, and problem analysis andprioritisation.Eachofthesevenactivitiescomprisestwoormoresteps,makingatotalof20stepsintheLWSAPprocess.All20steps,andthedeliverablesrelatedtoeachone,aredescribedindetailinthemanual.

ThelocalwatersecurityplanningprocessinJordanandTunisia–Experiencesofar

The LWSAP process in eight local governments in Jordan and Tunisia, based on themethodologydraftedinthemanual,wasinitiatedinearly2016.Currently,theprocessisapproachingthefinalphaseandthemajorityofpilotlocalgovernmentshavedevelopedadraftactionplan.Althoughitisstillearlytoperformafinalevaluationofthepilotprocess,someobservationscanbemade.

8http://documents.rec.org/publications/LWSAP_Manual_April2016.pdf

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Firstly, there is no doubt that local water security planning, based on the LWSAP methodologyprovided,isconsideredasanindispensableprocessformunicipalitiesintheregion,particularlythoseincludedintheproject.Currently,thenecessityofusingsuchamethodologyforactionplanningatthelocal level is not under question: rather, the discussion is about the details of themethodologicalapproach,includingimprovements.

Whenitcomestotheplanningprocessitself,thereisageneralproblemwithalackofreliabledataduetothecostsinvolvedincollectingsuchinformation.Actionplanningprocessesatthelocallevelintheregionemergeasextremelytime-consuming,particularlythesituationanalysis,duetothelackofreliabledataandskillsfordataacquisitionandanalysis.Asaresult,somestrategicplanningexercisesranshortof time,andsometimes the resultsof theplanningprocesswerenotsuccessful. In somecases,theentireplanninglogicwasmodifiedandsomestepswerenotevenperformed,duetothelimitedtimeframeforplanningforeseenbythedonorassistanceprogramme.

Measuringdevelopmentatalocallevelandmonitoringdevelopmentprogressareincreasinglybeingviewedasfundamentaltoanysuccessfuldevelopmentinitiative.However,onemajorproblemisthelackofreliableandpertinentdataanditssystematicmanagement,processingandupdating.

Thesuccessofthelocalplanningprocesseswasindirectcorrelationwiththeadministrativelevelandthe internal capacity of the local government to engage stakeholders for the entire process. Localcommunitiesintheregionaredifferent,withdifferentexpertiseandhumanresources.However,theroleoffacilitatorswasveryimportantineverycommunity:itwastheirtasktomovethingsforwardandtomakesurethataplanwasproducedandthatdeadlinesweremet.

Planningexerciseswerebasedonclassicparticipatoryplanningmethodology.However,publicinterestinparticipatinginlocalwatersecurityplanningisstilllimited,despiterecentpositiveexamplesinthisregard.Whilecitizenparticipation in localpolicymakinghasbeenencouragedandpractised in themajorityofstrategicplanningprocessesintheregion,thenotionoffosteringlocalwaterpartnerships,which engage public, social, economic, environmental and civic stakeholders in the effective jointrealisation of development priorities as identified within local strategies, is still to be furtherstrengthened.

Acommonunderstandingofthenecessityforastrategicapproachandofthemethodologyprovidedhadaneffectononly limitedand sporadicadministrativeproblemsduring theplanningprocesses,particularlyintheearlyphase.However,themainchallengewastodesigntheprocessasvisibleandattractiveforthecommunity,and,inparticular,tomaintainthemotivationforworkand“tensions”insideworkinggroupsduringthe long-termprocess—asstrategyformulationand implementationshouldbe.

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watersum.rec.org

The present background document comprises three articles prepared by experts to address the topics of three World Café 2016working groups: Governing water for sustainable growth (Group 1);Water-related climate change mitigation and adaptation measures

for sustainable growth (Group 2); and Water security action planning for sustainable growth (Group 3).

watersum.rec.org