“water in a changing world” professor paul w jowitt ice president, sistech and heriot watt...

“Water in a Changing World”

Professor Paul W Jowitt

ICE President, SISTech and Heriot Watt University

The 2010 Peter McCrae Lecture15 April 2010

Engineering Civilisationfrom the Shadows

WaterWhat is it?

ice.org.uk

Water? - The Scientific Accident/Fluke

Average surface temperature on Earth = ~ 15 C Close to the Triple Point of Water

Water exists in abundance on the planet Earth in its gaseous, solid, but perhaps most importantly for us, in its liquid forms. If the earth were +/- 5% nearer the Sun, we would not exist…

Ice floats on water…..Prof J C I Dooge

ice.org.uk

Water??

Hydrides: H2X?

Prof J C I Dooge

ice.org.uk

Hydrides: H2X?

Prof J C I Dooge

ice.org.uk

Surface Tension:

ST of water 2-3 times greater than other common liquids and this is of biological and social significance

eg moisture retention of unsaturated soils and vital for plants

Latent Heat of Vaporisation and Specific Heat?

Highest of any substance….Aids large scale evaporation of water from the tropics to the

temperature regions and its precipitation there.Variation of climate with latitude, with the socio economic

consequences on the amount of land available for habitation/crop production

The Anomalous H2O

Prof J C I Dooge

ice.org.uk

Scales

Traditionally, Water Management Problems operate at a scale where water can be treated as a continuum with no memory and where a few key scientific/engineering principles can be applied….

Key Principles: Mass Balance; Archimedes; Energy Balance; Newton’s

Laws…Key Equations:

Continuity; Bernoulli; Force-Momentum Equation; Navier Stokes Equations…..

Prof J C I Dooge

ice.org.uk

Water Engineering – Applications…

Key Principles: Mass Balance; Archimedes; Energy Balance; Newton’s

LawsKey Equations:

Continuity; Bernoulli; Force-Momentum Equation; Navier Stokes Equations

Key Applications: OC Flow; River Management; Power Generation, Water

Resources, Supply and Distribution; Floods; Droughts; Sediment Transport; Water Quality Modelling and Management

Prof J C I Dooge

ice.org.uk

These are no longer enough….

Increasingly, real problems have either impacts that need to account for (non-commensurate) socio-enviro-economic effects, or which account for large scale heterogeneity

Require Trans-Disciplinary and/or Large Scale Systems Models

ice.org.uk

Scales in Hydrology

1.E-15

1.E-10

1.E-05

1.E+00

1.E+05

1.E+10

1.E-15 1.E-10 1.E-05 1.E+00 1.E+05 1.E+10

Time Scale (s)

Length Scale (m)

Global

Sub-Basins

GCMs

Experimental Plots

Mixing Lengths

Continuum

Molecular clusters

Molecular

Scales at which Water Resources Engineering and Management increasingly operate...

Scales

ice.org.uk

The Primacy of Science?

The primacy of science/ engineering/ technology as the drivers of socio-economic outcomes?

or

The primacy of socio-economic imperatives -supported by scientific knowledge of what is - and engineering skills of what is possible – to achieve what might be desirable?

“Water Week” - Belgium 1933

ice.org.uk

“Wicked Problems and Functional Chimneys”

Last 30 years has seen emphasis on:

Catchment-scale water resource planning/ water resource planning

Holistic appraisal (a widening of the ‘users’)

Increasingly enshrined in legislation, notablyEuropean Union Habitats DirectiveEuropean Union Water Framework Directive

Stuart Lane CIWEM2003

ice.org.uk

“Wicked Problems and Functional Chimneys”

Two challenges

1. Dealing with ‘wicked problems’- Exist at the boundaries between policy responsibilities or that manifest themselves in different ways in different policy areas

2 Tendency to adopt ‘functional chimneys’- Functional chimneys “work” because they get things done

(clear policy remit, (reasonably) well-defined stakeholders, “clear” R&D knowledge and needs)

Water Resources Management is a classic ‘wicked problem’ and prejudiced by being dumped into a Functional Chimney

Stuart Lane CIWEM2003


Water:Can we manage?

ice.org.uk

Water Industry Drivers?

Capital intensiveHighly regulated – financially, environmentally

Highly competitive (at least in the developed economies)….

High customer/stakeholder expectations24/7 business with potential for catastrophic failure/loss of service

Still relying on many aged assets…..

ice.org.uk

Water Infrastructure - What is it?

Water SupplySourceCollectionTreatmentdistribution

WastewaterCollectionTreatmentDisposal

OtherDrainagemultiple-useintersection with other

infrastructure

ice.org.uk

“The Water Industry”

Relationships

Consumers/Stakeholders

Water Resources and Assets

RegulatoryAgencies

ice.org.uk

Legal Obligation

• Scottish Water established by Water Industry (Scotland) Act 2002

• Section 51 states:

“ Scottish Water must, in exercising its functions, act in the way best calculated to contribute to the achievement of sustainable

development.”

ice.org.uk

Effectiveness – Efficiency – Sustainability

Effectiveness

- concerned with meeting some required performance level.

Levels of Service,

Regulatory Compliance,

Risk and Reliability?

Efficiency

- about doing so at minimum cost.

Competitiveness and

Value for Money?

Sustainability

- about the ability to do so indefinitely…

Environmental, Economic, Social and Technical Impacts?

ice.org.uk

Privatisation/Mutualisation?

• Public interest is paramount

• Competition?

The water industry should not be the WICS’ experimental economics laboratory....

• Effective Regulation vs Competition?

• Scottish Water has met all its Capex and Opex targets....

ice.org.uk

Maintaining the flow…. - managing crisis events

Incident Types:

BurstsNetwork is hydraulically damaged/disconnected/broken

ContaminationNetwork is hydraulically intact but “damaged”….

Causes? Random, ... and non-random?

ice.org.uk

Emergency Events

Leeds (Headingley) 1980’s – Flooding caused by burst water main;

Glasgow 1986 – Burst water main causes flooding/loss of supply

Camelford 1988 – Water supplies to 20,000 contaminated by misplaced Alum at Water Treatment Plant – severe health effects – senior official dismissed;

Bishopsgate 1993 - Bomb explosion; 22,000 premises affected - 8 hours to rezone water supplies to “normality”; 5 weeks to reconstruct sewer;

Ashington, Liverpool, Glasgow, Edinburgh 1995 – widespread pipe bursts after freezing/thawing of pipes led to loss of supply

Glasgow (Burncrooks) 1997 – Diesel contamination of water supplies – lack of network knowledge – Chair of Water Co resigns;

Glasgow 2002 – Cryptosporidium in water supply – extensive rezoning of water supplies, “boil water” orders – local knowledge alerts problem in GIS system but delay results in serious reputational damage.

ice.org.uk

Results of a simple failure?


Water Securityshould we be worried?

ice.org.uk

Water Security

Hydrological Failure - including the long term but inexorable closing of the gap between water availability and demand - drought/loss of headroom etc

Hydraulic Failure - viewed as the catastrophic breakdown of the collection/treatment/distribution systems from random and non-random causes, and resulting in loss of power/key plant etc which causes sudden outages and sources of civil strife. (eg post Katrina)

Development Failure - where global poverty results from a failure to provide the infrastructure upon which civilisation depends

Political Failure - where the problem lies in international law/treaties etc, and where the governing factors are not necessarily hydrologically driven

ice.org.uk

UrbanisationPopulationFood securityPoverty alleviationEnergy demandClimate changeWater demandCounter-terrorism Infectious diseasesBiodiversity

21st century challenges

“The Perfect Storm…”

Prof John Beddington

Chief Scientific Advisor

UK Government

ice.org.uk

UrbanisationPopulationFood securityPoverty alleviationEnergy demandClimate changeWater demandCounter-terrorism Infectious diseasesBiodiversity

.. the emergent properties of large-scale, complex systems…

Civil engineers have a positive role to play in addressing all of these…

Systems level solutions!

ice.org.uk

Civil engineers’ ability to take a

systems view at a range of temporal

and spatial scales

ice.org.uk

Innovation Issues?

Technologies?Processes?

Sustainable Urban Drainage SystemsLess energy intensive treatment processes (eg reed beds)

Devices?Grey-Water DevicesWater Efficient Appliances

Systems?Do we really understand the criticality of the systems we have createdManaging crisis events/supply system failures SCADA Systems, real time monitoring and control

Demand versus Supply side solutions?Is it time we started managing demand rather than just increasing the

supply?


Water…Climate Change?

ice.org.uk

The Times, 14th June 1991

ice.org.uk

Time’s Winged Chariots

• Water demand doubling every 21 years. 70% used for irrigation

• Limits on irrigation leads to limits on food production

• Limits on food production in poor countries leads to imports, higher prices and political instability

• Water tables are falling (caused by excessive pumping and leading to permanent damage to aquifers)

• Some rivers no longer reach the sea

David Thom

ice.org.uk

ice.org.uk

Proposed Canal linking Ob and Irtysh Rivers in Siberia to the Aral Sea:

2500 km long, 200m wide


Water…Perceptions?

ice.org.uk

Perceptions of Water

Perceptions may differ between: individuals, communities, societies etc

Consider possible perceptions of household water services (potable water and sanitation)

Two models (Herrington 1996)1. Water as a Social Service (Social Service Model)2. Water as an Economic Good (Business or Public

Corporation Model)

John Sawkins, Heriot Watt University

ice.org.uk

Perceptions of Water - 1

Water as a Social Service stresses consumer ‘rights’ to the servicefinance industry via general taxationscepticism over domestic meteringconcern over volumetric charging systems (metering) lest universal access be compromised

emphasis on public health benefits


ice.org.uk

Perceptions of Water - 2

Water as an Economic Goodstresses commercial nature of industry’s output

services supplied in response to demandsympathy towards domestic metering, volumetric charging and marginal cost pricing

industry financed via customer chargesaffordability problems to be dealt with via tax and social security system


ice.org.uk

Perceptions of Water

Which model to employ?

Classify household water services in two ways:1. Essential (‘Basic needs’) use - drinking, cooking, basic sanitation etc 2. Discretionary (‘Luxury’) use - garden, leisure, luxury appliances 1. = Water as Social Service Model?2. = Water as Economic Good ie Business or Public

Corporation Model?


ice.org.uk

Fresh water is a finite and vulnerable resource, essential to sustain life, development and the environment

Water development and management should be based on a participatory approach, involving users, planners and policy makers at all levels

Women play a central role in the provision, management and safeguarding of water

Water has an economic value in all its competing uses, and should be recognised as an economic good

The Dublin Principles

ice.org.uk

Within Communities

Within Countries

Between Countries

Across Continents

Across Lifestyles - urban vs rural artisan vs

professional

Disparity, Inequity, Environmental Justice….

ice.org.uk

N America

W Europe

E Asia & Pacific

L America & Caribbean

South Asia

Middle East

Sub Saharan Africa

Aust & NZ

Distribution of World Spend

Kibera

Edinburgh

ice.org.uk

MDG Target 10: Water Supply, Sanitation and Water Resource

Management

Water is the key for: Health, Environmental Protection, Food Security, Tourism/Economic

Development, Empowerment of Women, Education (esp. girls)

UN MDG Target 10 required “connecting” 275,000 people per day for 12 yrs up to

2015

Water

ice.org.uk

“Water for the World – Why is it so difficult?”

Water supply can be made “market driven”

Compare sanitation – difficult to prevent “free defecation”

“But multinational private sector unlikely to play a major role in achieving the MDGs…… ”

John Banyard: 2004 ICE Brunel Lecture

ice.org.uk

Distrust

Role of the Private Sector in Public Services?

PSP/PFI/PPP?

New Models required which recognise the Community, the Funder, NGO’s, the Professions, the Private Sector….

Jowitt: 2006 ICE Brunel Lecture


Water: Availability, Variability and Wealth?

ice.org.uk

Two billion people worldwide still lack safe drinking water

25,000 children still die every day from water-related diseases

The contrasts between the developed and developing worlds could not be more stark

Access to Water

ice.org.uk Brown and Lall, 2006

GDP and Latitude

ice.org.uk

The Infrastructure Gap – but how much is enough?

Reservoir Storage per Capita (m3/cap), 2003

1,104 1,277

5,961

38

687

2,486

3,386

4,717

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

World Bank

Reservoir Storage per Capita (m3/cap), 2003

1,104 1,277

5,961

38

687

2,486

3,386

4,717

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

World Bank

World Bank, 2005 Brown and Lall, 2006

ice.org.uk

Color by Interannual CV

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

Mean P (cm)

CVM

GDP per cap (Low CVI)

GDP per cap (Hi CVI)

Climate “Sweet Spot” - Low Rainfall variability = High GDP

Brown and Lall, 2006

Rainfall: Monthly CV vs MeanCircle size proportional to per capita GDP


Water Conflictsshould we be worried?

ice.org.uk

Water Conflicts

Long history (www.worldwater.org/conflict.html)http://www.worldwater.org/conflict/map/Growing shortagesChanging threats

ice.org.uk

Water Conflicts: Middle East, Central Asia, and, according to a US Govt Inquiry: “Scarcity is pitting city against city, … industry and farmers against municipal users…

ice.org.uk

ice.org.uk

“Water is for fighting over”

Mark Twain

ice.org.uk

A Performance-Based Roadmap to a Permanent Two-State Solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

The Middle East

Sharon has vacant settler outposts

dismantled

ice.org.uk

Technical Issues:

Kinneret is the only “sweet” water lake in the region – excessive use of the lake and associated aquifers leads to irreversible salinisation …

Operating Policies??

ice.org.uk

My lecture notes from a bygone age..

- well circa 1980 –

.. for an MSc lecture course on Water Resources Management, Imperial College….

Strong on “hard” systems analysis and optimisation

But what is missing?

The Non Technical Context – the “soft” systems stuff!

ice.org.uk

Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in Lake Kinneret – ….the Sea of Galilee…..

ice.org.uk

Equitable Allocation of Water Resources in Lake Kinneret – ….the Sea of Galilee…..

ice.org.uk

The Sea of Galilee

Until 1967, Lake Kinneret and a small strip on the eastern shore of the lake served as the border between Israel and Syria.

After the Six-Day War which resulted in Israel's occupation of the Golan Heights (east of Lake Kinneret), Lake Kinneret was no longer the border between Israel and Syria, and it is presently an inland lake of Israel.

Water Is the Root of Israeli-Water Is the Root of Israeli-Palestinian Evil Palestinian Evil JERUSALEM, April 2, 2002 (ENS)JERUSALEM, April 2, 2002 (ENS)

Each side sees itself as the victim. Each side sees itself as the victim. The convoluted conflict which has The convoluted conflict which has its origin in Biblical times is created its origin in Biblical times is created in part by the arid nature of the in part by the arid nature of the disputed lands. disputed lands.

Dwindling water resources Dwindling water resources increasingly affected by pollution, increasingly affected by pollution, agricultural and industrial use and agricultural and industrial use and population growth, have elevated population growth, have elevated the strategic importance of water in the strategic importance of water in the region. The waterthe region. The water issue is at the root of the struggle over territory.

ice.org.uk

“Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt”

Mark Twain

ice.org.uk

UrbanisationPopulationFood securityAlleviating povertyEnergy demandClimate changeWater demandCounter-terrorism Infectious diseasesBiodiversity

.. the emergent properties of large-scale, complex systems…

Civil engineers have a positive role to play in addressing all of these…

Water in a Changing World...


“Water in a Changing World”Professor Paul W JowittICE President, SISTech and Heriot Watt University

The 2010 Peter McCrae Lecture15th April 2010

“water in a changing world” professor paul w jowitt ice president, sistech and heriot watt...

Documents