water productivity indicators: what do they tell...

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Water Productivity Indicators:What do they tell us?

International Workshop on“Going Beyond Agricultural Water Productivity”

December 8-9, 2014World Bank, Washington DC

Keith FuglieEconomic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Washington, DC


• Water productivity reflects choices made by farmers– Crops

– Application technology

– Management practices

• Choices influenced by economic conditions– Crop and input prices

– (private opportunity) cost and availability of water

– Cost of adopting new application technology or management practices, including learning costs

• Changes in water productivity indicators suggest economic conditions have changed

• Indicators: good for generating hypotheses about what might be driving changes


Long-term trends in U.S. irrigated agriculture:Important behavioral change since 1980s

Source: USDA and USGS


Indicators: dramatic improvements in “crop per drop”What’s driving this change?


Crop output (price weighted): value of all grain, oilseed, Industrial, hay & horticultural crops produced under Irrigation deflated by an agricultural price index

Water consumption assuming same growth rate as crop output or irrig area


Availability of state & regional agricultural and water data allow deeper analysis of what’s driving changes

Source: USDA

Irrigated cropland in 2007


Gains in “crop per drop” have varied widely across regions

Source: Derived from USDA and USGS data


California- competition from non-agricultural water use

Water policy reforms:– Diverted more water for

environmental purposes

– Increased irrigation prices

– Increased the variation in prices paid by farmers



Behavioral response: change in crop mix

Source: USDA FRIS


Behavioral response: move to water-productive crops

Source: USDA FRIS

Water footprint

Water consump

Land yield

Water yield

m3/T m3/Ha K$/Ha $/m3

Almond 8,047 19,152 11.5 0.60

Alfalfa 254 3,810 2.3 0.60

Cotton 4,029 7,252 3.2 0.44

Corn 1,222 16,986 2.8 0.16


Northern Plains- exploitation of Ogallala aquifer


Water policy:– Restrictions on new wells

Conservation policy:– Subsidies for irrigation

technology adoption

Behavioral response: – 1980s structural break– New irrigation technologies– Improved corn-soybean

technologies


Southern Plains-significant fall in groundwater levels


Water policy:– Fewer restrictions

Behavioral response: – Reversion to dryland

farming


N vs. S Plains: Value share of irrigated crop production

Source: USDA FRIS


Usefulness of water productivity indicators

• Show progress toward resource conservation goals

• Show potential for raising water productivity in water scarce areas– But reductions in irrigation water withdrawals may not increase real

water available for other uses if crop water consumption doesn’t change

• Provide basis for generating and testing hypothesis about how users respond to policy & market incentives affecting water use– But differences in water productivity do not reflect irrational or laggard

behavior on the part of users

water productivity indicators: what do they tell...

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