water security: a prairie perspective · 2011-01-31 · water underpins society -clean drinking...
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Water Security: a Prairie Perspective
Howard Wheater
Canada Excellence Research Chair in Water Security
Saskatchewan Prairie Conservation Action Plan 19 January 2011
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‘Water’ has many meanings
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Rural water issues in Bangladesh
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Water underpins society - Clean drinking water is essential for survival
- We need water for food – 70-80% of the world’s water use is for irrigation
- We need water for energy – to generate hydropower and for cooling thermal stations; but water supply and treatment is a major energy user
- We need water for industry
- We need water for the environment
- Floods are one of the world’s biggest natural hazards
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Global water challenges
- a perfect storm?
Current issues:
• 900 million lack access to clean drinking water
• 1.4-2.1 billion live in water stressed areas
• unsustainable use of water – declining groundwater levels, dry rivers
• increasing competition for water resources – at local, regional and international scales
• degradation of water quality – from over-abstraction and pollution
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And in the future:
• increased demand – due to population growth, economic development, agriculture
• environmental change
-land use and land management change
-climate change
(one of the largest land use changes Canada has seen has been associated with warmer winters - forest death due to beetle infestation)
6 billion in water-scarce areas by 2050?
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Some implications: Society has reached the limits of demand-driven water
management
Issues of sustainability must be addressed – these include trans-boundary issues
Complex problems of uncertain water futures must be confronted and managed
A consistent societal agenda is needed for water, food and energy, addressing both climate change adaptation and mitigation
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Water is rising up the political agenda and increasingly making news
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New York Times 26 September 2010 Egypt and Thirsty Neighbors Are at Odds Over Nile
‘Upstream countries, looking to right what they say are historic wrongs, have joined in an attempt to break Egypt and Sudan’s near-monopoly on the water, threatening a crisis that Egyptian experts said could, at its most extreme, lead to war.....
In Egypt, decades of bellicose rhetoric about the Nile have made the river’s water an explosive issue. “Violating Egypt’s quota of Nile water is a genocidal war against 80 million people,” an Egyptian commentator, Hazem el-Beblawi, wrote this year in Al Masry Al Youm, an Egyptian daily.’
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New York Times 26 September 2010 As Floodwaters Recede, a Crisis Emerges
‘Two months after flooding began in the northern reaches of Pakistan, the waters of the Indus continue to flood low-lying areas of Sindh....The flooding killed about 1,800 people, and more than 20 million people..have been affected. The United Nations estimates that 12.4 million people are in need of immediate humanitarian assistance.....’
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BBC news: “It's a catastrophe... and that's no
overstatement. This will be the biggest disaster in the history of Pakistan” General Nadeem Ahmed, National Disaster Management Authority
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But the Pakistan floods are just one example of unusual extreme events in 2010
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‘Russia melted by record heat’ July 2010
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Very warm air over Russia
Middle latitude air in the trough extends equatorwards above ‘high’ in the atmosphere and encourages deep convection to develop in the warm moist monsoon air below it
The average motion of the air near 12km for 23-30 July 2010
Courtesy of Sir Brian Hoskins
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Winter (Dec to Feb) 2009/10 Surface Temperature Anomaly (from 1968-96 climatology)
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Saskatoon Summer Precipitation 1900-2010
0
100
200
300
400
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700
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Hydrologic year (Oct 1-Sept 30)
Pre
cip
itation [
mm
]
Summer (April-Sept)
Courtesy of Garth van der Kamp
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Is this a signal of climate change? Global warming is unambiguous; changes to climate and
an increase in extremes are confidently expected
Some changes to precipitation and flows are observed
Extreme events are by definition rare – statistical evidence of changes to extremes requires longer runs of reliable data than generally exist; attribution through models generally exceeds modelling capability
But 2010 was a remarkable year for extremes....and 2011 continues - is this ‘the writing on the wall’?
Saskatchewan River Basin Location of research sites within Saskatchewan River basin
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Some observations on Saskatchewan Saskatchewan depends on the South Saskatchewan river
75% of South Saskatchewan River water comes from the Rockies (40-50% of basin does not contribute to river flows)
<1% of flow originates in Saskatchewan, but 70% of population uses river water
This river is a critically important resource for three provinces, and raises inter-provincial and inter-sector issues (86% of consumption of South Saskatchewan River goes to irrigation).
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But:
The South Saskatchewan river is reaching limits for abstraction in Alberta
Pollution is changing its water quality and creating eutrophication
Climate change is changing the land and its water in complex ways, affecting river flows and prairie hydrology
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Some illustrations of change -with thanks to John Pomeroy and Chris DeBeer
Recent Glacier Changes – Western Canadian Cordillera
Glacier retreat and volume loss has been widespread in Western Canada
Some glaciers have retreated up to 1 – 2 km since early 1950s
Total glacier covered area has declined by 5 – 15% over the period 1951 – 2001
The relative loss of ice volume is likely greater than this amount
Research initiatives such as Western Canadian Cryospheric Network (WC2N) have been investigating these changes
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Marmot Creek Research Basin
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Temperature Trends at Elevation in Marmot Creek, 1962-Present
Winters are warmer by 3 to 4 oC since the 1960s
Harder & Pomeroy
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Marmot Creek: Spring-Summer Streamflow Decline of ~13%, 1963-2008
Harder & Pomeroy
Significant at 98.3%
Middle Creek of Marmot Creek May-October
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Mean
Flo
w m
3/s
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Rocky Mountain River Flows are Declining
0
10
20
30
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50
60
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Mean
Yearl
y F
low
m3/s
ec
Bow River at Banff, Mean Annual Flow
Trend -11.5% since 1910, Statistically Significant at 99% Probability
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South Saskatchewan River - Natural and Actual
Flow leaving Alberta
Natural flow: 12% decline over 90 years; Actual flow: 15% decline over 30 years
0
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4,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
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18,000,000,000
1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
An
nu
al F
low
m3
Natural Actual
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Consumption of South Saskatchewan river water in Alberta is increasing
0
5
10
15
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25
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45
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
% C
on
su
me
d
Largest % consumption in drought years
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Simulated Winter Warming Impact on Alpine Snow
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50
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30/11/06 30/12/06 29/01/07 28/02/07 30/03/07 29/04/07 29/05/07
SW
E (
mm
)
reference simulation
+ 1°C
+ 2 °C
+ 3°C
+ 4 °C
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Prairie Drought of 1999-2004; Most Expensive Natural Disaster in Canadian History
$5.8 billion decline in GDP 2001-2002
$3.6 billion drop in agricultural production, 2001-2002
41,000 jobs lost
BC, Alberta forest fires
Saskatchewan dust storms
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Simulated Prairie Climate Change –Winter Snow Winter Snow Accumulation at Bad Lake, SK
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700
1/1
0/1
97
4
15
/10
/19
74
29
/10
/19
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12
/11
/19
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26
/11
/19
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10
/12
/19
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24
/12
/19
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07
/01
/19
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21
/01
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04
/02
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/04
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SW
E (
mm
)
Normal SWE (Winter of 1974/75)
SWE (Winter of 2049/50)
SWE (Winter of 2079/80)
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Simulated Prairie Climate Change – Spring Runoff
Spring Runoff from Creighton Tributary at Bad Lake, SK
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
01/1
0/1
974
15/1
0/1
974
29/1
0/1
974
12/1
1/1
974
26/1
1/1
974
10/1
2/1
974
24/1
2/1
974
07/0
1/1
975
21/0
1/1
975
04/0
2/1
975
18/0
2/1
975
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975
29/0
4/1
975
Ru
no
ff (
mm
)
Normal Spring Runoff (Spring of 1975)
Spring Runoff (Spring of 2050)
Spring Runoff (Spring of 2080)
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Some conclusions Rocky Mountain water is essential for Prairies’ water
supply, yet climate is warming, river flows are reducing, and water use is increasing
Anticipated climate change will dramatically reduce mountain snow water supplies
Climate warming is shifting snowfall to rainfall over much of the Prairies – longer summers but not more water
Future climate change is likely to first increase then decrease spring runoff from prairie drainages.
The prairies are vulnerable to local climate extremes, yet the frequency and intensity of extremes is expected to increase
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Water futures
Water futures will require existing issues of resource scarcity to be confronted
Radical changes are likely to water management in water stressed areas
Innovative solutions will be required, as well as learning from the past
Adaptation will depend on clear and coherent policy across sectors – water, land , energy – and consistency with the mitigation agenda
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The social dimension
Social response controls:
- the drivers of climate change
- the societal response to climate change
- environmental futures
Effective connection between science, engineering and social science is needed to understand what are complex social-environmental systems, and to provide appropriate guidance for policy and management
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The CERC at UofS
Institute for Water Security
- 5 CRCs
- 65 Faculty
- Partnership with Environment Canada
- $30 million endowment
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The CERC programme themes:
a) Climate change and water security
Canadian exemplars include: Saskatchewan River
b) Land-water management and environmental change
Canadian exemplars include: South Saskatchewan, Lake Diefenbaker
c) Sustainable development of natural resources
Canadian exemplars include: oil sands development, remediation and risk assessment
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The problems society now faces with respect to water security are complex and multi-faceted.
New science, technologies and modelling tools are needed to enable society to understand and manage change, to enable politicians and managers to make the hard choices required for water management and environmental protection.
Our goal is to develop these, for application to Canada and the world.
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London Guardian, March 2009 World faces 'perfect storm' of problems by 2030, chief scientist warns Food, water and energy shortages will unleash public unrest and international conflict, says Professor John Beddington.
Food and water shortages as a result of climate change and growing populations are likely to trigger mass migration and unrest. A "perfect storm" of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee from the worst-affected regions