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Water Security: In Search of
the Optimal Balance
Robert Cardinalli
International Development Group
Research Triangle Institute, USA
November 8 - 10, 2011
10th NATIONAL CONGRESS ON SCIENCES
(KIPNAS-X)
Jakarta, Indonesia
The Research Triangle Institute established by
Duke University, University of North Carolina
and North Carolina State University is an
independent, nonprofit institute that provides
research, development, and technical services
to government and commercial clients
worldwide.
RTI is the 2nd largest research institute in the USA
with a staff of more than 2,800 supporting
projects in more than 40 countries: e.g. RTI is
responsible for designing most of the US
government regulations and systems protocols
for the US EPA.
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RTI pursues comprehensive, multidisciplinary
research activities in the following major areas of
study:
• Health Research – incl. public health
policy, economics, epidemiology, genetics, and
infectious diseases
• Drug Discovery and Development – from
discovery, synthesis and design to toxicology
and metabolic analysis to comprehensive clinical
trial and drug assessment services
• Education and Training Research
• Survey Research and Services - survey & data
management services, & quantitative and
qualitative statistical analysis
• International Development - public health,
education, governance and management, urban
development, water resources management,
global climate change, environmental resource
management, and public finance
• Economic and Social Research – examines
technology, agriculture, judicial, and other social
and economic policies
• Advanced Technology Research and
Development - development and engineering of
innovative technologies for practical application;
intellectual asset management services for the
global market
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• Energy Research - research & development of
technologies for the production and use of clean
fuels
• Environmental Research Services –
environmental standards research & scientific,
technical, and policy analysis of environmental
issues
• Laboratory and Chemistry Services
Laboratory-based research and services in
analytical chemistry, forensic science,
environmental toxicology, testing and analysis,
quality standards, and lab certification
Water Security:
Threats and Opportunities
1. Water & Development: water both hampers & promotes economic and social growth
2. Water Security & Optimal Balance: the water hardware vs. software conundrum
3. Water & Measured Development: keying deliberate decision-making to responsible policy and practical implementation
Water Security: In Search of the
Optimal Balance
4
a basis of production, growth &
socio-political stability
Water: the good, the bad & the
ugly
a basis of infrastructure
devastation, perpetuating
poverty & inciting conflict
Threats to Global Water Security
• World population explosion
• Rapid human shifts from rural to urban
• Major dietary change behavior
• Increasing pollution of water resources
• Over-abstraction of groundwater
• Issues created by climate change
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• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemic
• Conflicts & Wars
Gujarat State, India August 2008
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemic
• Conflicts & Wars
Bangkok, November 2011
6
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemic
• Conflicts & Wars
Western Nepal, August 2011
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemic
• Conflicts & Wars
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Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemics
• Conflicts & Wars
Hrazdan River, Armenia 2010
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemics
• Conflicts & Wars
Indonesia, July 2005
8
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
devastation, stagnating poverty devastation, stagnating poverty
& political conflict& political conflict
• Scarcity, Drought
& Famine
• Flood & Inundation
• Landslides
• Desertification
• Contamination
• Disease & Epidemics
• Conflicts & Wars
Global Water Flashpoints 2011
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
• Robust communities
• Sustainable
ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture and Religion
• Socio-political Stability
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Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
• Robust communities
• Sustainable ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture and Religion
• Socio-political Stability
• Robust communities
• Sustainable
ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture and Religion
• Socio-political Stability
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
10
• Robust communities
• Sustainable
ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture & Religion
• Socio-political Stability
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
• Robust communities
• Sustainable
ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture & Religion
• Socio-political Stability
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
11
• Robust communities
• Sustainable ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture & Religion
• Socio-political Stability
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
• Robust communities
• Sustainable ecosystems
• Food production
• Energy generation
• Transportation
• Culture & Religion
• Socio-political
Stability
Water: historically a source of economic Water: historically a source of economic
growth, basic requirements for survival, growth, basic requirements for survival,
and production, growth & stabilityand production, growth & stability
12
Water Security:
Threats and Opportunities
1. Water & Growth: water both hampers & promotes economic and social growth
2. Water Security & Optimal Balance: the water hardware vs. software conundrum
3. Water & Responsible Growth: keying deliberate decision-making to responsible policy and practical implementation
Water Security: it’s all
about balancing the pluses
and the minuses
Demand & risk management
dependable, predictable &
adequate quantity & quality of
water for agriculture, municipal
services, industry and basic
health
AND@ manageable levels of risk
of unanticipated water-
related impacts
a cause of destruction,
poverty & conflict
basis for production,
health, growth &
cooperation
AND@
Countervailing forces
Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
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Water Security: the economic growth correlate
Most regions with high rainfall/ runoff variability/ unpredictability are poor; knowledge & capital deficits create high risk
GDP and Rainfall Variability
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
Mean Annual Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall
Variability
Bubble Size = GDP per capita(Blue = low inter-annual variability of rainfall)
Red = high rainfall variability
Developing countries face more challenging climate conditionsHigh variability
High mean
Wealthy nations share a small window of favorable climate (low variability; moderate
rainfall)(After Brown, 2007)
Water Security: dependable, predictable & adequate quantity
& quality of water for agriculture,
municipal services, industry and basic
health AND manageable levels of risk of
unanticipated water-related impacts
Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
Optimal Balanceof water
hardware/infrastructure
& institutions
investment needed
to achieve Water
Security=
(Imbalanced)
Water Insecure
+Water Secure
(Balanced)
+Median
Balance Point
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Water hardware vs. software:
the elephant in the living room
COMMON CONFLICTING PERSPECTIVES
• To invest in small-scale water infrastructure
• To invest in large-scale water infrastructure
• To invest in water institutions & management
OR
• To blend all three, reflecting needs & situation
Countries prone to water insecurity must leverage all
options & select & implement sensibly
Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
To dam or not to dam, that
is the question<
• Water security achieved with hydrological variability requires water storage & regulation
• Water storage: natural (aquifers, lakes, wetlands), small or large
• Water storage: artificial (aquifers, dams & reservoirs), small or large
• Industrial countries: water secure, invested in what they need (small/large, natural/artificial)
Water-insecure countries need to carefully assess sustainable storage options before investing
scarce resources
Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
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Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
• Developing countries: seriously limited by hydrology
• Intermediate countries: constrained by hydrology
• Industrial countries: in command of hydrology
Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
• Developing countries: seriously limited by hydrology
• Intermediate countries: constrained by hydrology
• Industrial countries: in command of hydrology
•
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Water Security & Water Security &
the Optimal the Optimal
BalanceBalance
• Developing countries: seriously limited by hydrology
• Intermediate countries: constrained by hydrology
• Industrial countries: in command of hydrology
Japan Case Study(Japan Water Forum 2006)
WSS coverage UP
Morbid/mortality DOWN
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
19
18
19
20
19
22
19
24
19
26
19
28
19
30
19
32
19
34
19
36
19
38
19
40
19
42
19
44
19
46
19
48
19
50
19
52
19
54
19
56
19
58
19
60
19
62
19
64
19
66
19
68
19
70
19
72
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
Year
Domestic Water Use
(million m³/year)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
Patients and DeathsDomestic water use
Patients and deaths of waterborne infectious diseases
Infant deaths
-missing-
Coverage of water supply system
26.2%
36.0%
53.4%
69.4%
80.7%
87.6%91.5%
93.3%94.7%
95.8%96.6%
-missing-
-missing-
2,500,000
2,600,000
2,700,000
2,800,000
2,900,000
3,000,000
3,100,000
3,200,000
3,300,000
18
83
18
85
18
87
18
89
18
91
18
93
18
95
18
97
18
99
19
01
19
03
19
05
19
07
19
09
19
11
19
13
19
15
19
17
19
19
19
21
19
23
19
25
19
27
19
29
19
31
19
33
19
35
19
37
19
39
19
41
19
43
19
45
19
47
19
49
19
51
19
53
19
55
19
57
19
59
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
Year
Acreage
(hectares)
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
Yield
(tons)
Paddy production
Planted area
Source:
Production, Marketing and Consumption Statistics Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. “Statistics on Crops”
Planning Division, Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. “Annual Statistics of Foods in Japan”
The First Farmland Reform
The Second Farmland Reform
Paddy efficiency: UP
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
194
5
194
6
194
7
194
8
194
9
195
0
195
1
195
2
195
3
195
4
195
5
195
6
195
7
195
8
195
9
196
0
196
1
196
2
196
3
196
4
196
5
196
6
196
7
196
8
196
9
197
0
Fiscal Year
Generated electric power
(millions of kilowatt/hour)
Hydro Thermal
Source:
Office of Gas and Electricity Markets, Agency for Natural Resources and Energy. “Hand book of electric power industry”
Electric Power Development Promotion Law
Hydropower: MATURE
Thermal: UP
Water Security & the Optimal BalanceWater Security & the Optimal Balance(Japan Water Forum 2005)(Japan Water Forum 2005)
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Water Security:
Threats and Opportunities
1. Water & Growth: water both hampers & promotes economic and social growth
2. ‘Water Security’ & ‘Minimum Platform’: the water hardware vs. software conundrum
3. Water & Responsible Growth: keying deliberate decision-making to responsible policy and practical implementation
Water: Importance of Scientific and Social Water: Importance of Scientific and Social
Research in Maintaining Optimal BalanceResearch in Maintaining Optimal Balance
� Very often scientific research on water resources and management is
compartmentalized into convenient sectors: engineering, policy,
economic, social, political, hydro-meteorological.
� To achieve significant efficiencies in water security, water solutions
should be considered in context of entire water system from:
• spatial inclusiveness: “cloud to coast”
• upstream downstream dynamics
• multiple sources and types of water characterized and assessed
(free river flows, green water, grey water, brown water, etc.)
• options for water storage and access during dry seasons
• river basin and watershed management to be considered in context
of livelihood growth
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Research needed identifying new and sustainable technologies in:
• Storage of excess flows during floods & surface water storage
• Sustainable groundwater use & better understanding of
aquifers
• Holistic crop production: OFWM efficiency (irrigation &
drainage alongside innovative crop science research)
• Improvements in plant breeding to reduce irrigation demand
• More efficient industrial production processes
• Improved desalination techniques & management of brine
waste
• Better modeling of water systems
• Transparent water data management & cadastral information
systems shared between countries
Water: Importance of Scientific and Social Water: Importance of Scientific and Social
Research in Maintaining Optimal BalanceResearch in Maintaining Optimal Balance
Matching Incentives to Improve
Water Governance
• Incentive compatibility makes certain that innovations
and reforms are supported by adequate and appropriate
incentives
• Complex situations with multiple stakeholders require a
complex solution based on incentives tailored to each
stakeholder category need, otherwise water governance
will be dysfunctional
• IC index entails four essential stages:
– Specifying Water Security goals and objectives
– Setting stakeholder essential services & relations
– Identifying applied mechanisms
– Assessing efficacy of the existing and new
mechanisms for incentive creation
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Governance to Empower Consumers to
Manage Water Resources
• Restructure government-dominated
organizational structure assigning water
governance to end users
• Require transparent environment of support,
opportunities and investment from government
• User empowerment to: 1) ensure equitable
distribution of water supplies and services, 2)
maintain infrastructure performance integrity, 3)
ensure local government technical and political
support after authority devolution
Governance to Empower Consumers to
Manage Water Resources
Main tool elements – strengthen ability to:
• Develop consultative decision-making process
• Undertake participatory infrastructure O&M
• Position consumers to directly oversee service providers
• Develop multi-level management systems
• Ensure compatibility of local cultural norms, traditional
values, gender mainstreaming, and allocation and
distribution
• Inculcate self-assessment capability to manage within
local water management organizations to continue
growth and evolution
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Water Security, Optimal Balance,
Logical and Rational Growth@.• Water security: reducing destructive, increasing productive
impacts of water (underpinning not undermining growth)
• Achieving water security essential for growth & development
• Optimal balance of infrastructure & institutions to achieve water security
• All industrial countries above optimal balance (often low: a reason for early growth)
• Most poor countries below optimal balance (often high: a reason for constrained growth)
• Major investment needed for growth in many poor countries
• Balanced investment in water infrastructure & institutions
• Adaptive investment to minimize social & environmental costs
• Inclusive investment to maximize stakeholder values
In a globally challenged economic environment, closing that gap is a major challenge
Children of Two Countries Officially Still at War
(Armenia and Azerbaijan) celebrate
Caucasian regional water festival - 2010
Photo: R. Cardinalli
Thank you