water security kosovo

Water Security for Central Kosovo

The Kosovo - Ibr River Basin

and Ibr Lepenc Water System

Water resources, water demands,

Water balance assessment,

And programme of measures

MARCH 2011

Edited March 2012

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wb406484Typewritten Text71850

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. DOCUMENT LEAD SHEET

Client Project Number: 7156058

SCE Project Number: 10292

Document Number: 2

Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning

WATER SECURITY FOR CENTRAL KOSOVO

Reports: Water Resources, Water demands,

Water balance assessment and

Programme of measures

Issue Date Author Collaborators Reviewer WORLD BANK

Approver

Reasons for issue

A 25/03/2011 F. BAUDRY

- K. ZENA

- N. PIRVA

- C. SCHMANDT

- C. MASCRE

- F. PINTUS

- B. PICON

A. AZIZI

G. DENIGOT

C. VALLET

The team thanks all the partners in Kosovo who provided help to collect data in the field for the canal survey as well those who shared information for this study.

We hope that this assessment will provide opportunities to improve water security in Central Kosovo.

This Main Report and its additional volume on the WEAP Model Activities are the results of the work of the Consultant Team led by F. Baudry and G.Denigot, in cooperation with experts and government officials at the Water Directorate, Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning, the Ibr-Lepenc Canal Water Company, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Development, the Government Water Task Force, the Lignite Power Technical Assistance Project, and several other Ministerial and other agencies. The support and information of several donor agencies are gratefully acknowledged, notably of the Swiss Cooperation Office Kosovo, the Kreditanstalt fr Wiederaufbau, and the European Commission Liaison Office to Kosovo. The World Bank team that supervised and led this initiative comprised Guy Alaerts, Michael Jacobsen and Krenar Bujupi.

Disclaimer

The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are those of the Consultant and do not necessarily reflect the views of the World Bank. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colours, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.

W A T E R S E C U R I T Y F O R C E N T R A L K O S O V O I B R R I V E R B A S I N A N D I B R L E P E N C W A T E R S Y S T E M

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 4

ACRONYMS 11

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 12

A- Context and Objectives 12

B- Integrated River Basin Planning and Water Balance 13

C- Bulk Water Supply Vulnerability and Water Security in Central Kosovo 14

D- Priority Measures and Investments 22

E- Conclusion 23

PART I CONTEXT, CONCEPT 1 TOOLS 24

I. REPORT SCOPE & PROJECT AREA 24

II. COMMON UNDERSTANDING: MOVING TOWARDS WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO 25

II.1. Concept of Water security for this study 25

II.2. Preliminary objectives for Water Security 25

III. INFLUENCE ON WATERS SECURITY OF THE CHANGING SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT IN CENTRAL KOSOVO 26

III.1. Issues regarding the Ibr Lepenc Canal 26

III.2. Infrastructure Development 27

III.3. Energy and water 29

III.4. International context 31

IV. CONCEPTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE ISSUES 32

IV.1. Schematic representation of the issues 32

IV.2. Use of WEAP: A River Basin Management Modeling Tool 33

A- WEAP model main features 33 B- Set up of a WEAP model for the Ibr River Basin in Kosovo and Montenegro 34

V. SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA LIMITATION 37

PART II IBR RIVER BASIN IN KOSOVO & TRANSBOUNDARIES WATERS 40

I.1. Geographical area - international waters 40

A- Project Area 40 B- Central Kosovo area Water Supply 42

I.2. Ibr transboundary waters and Danube river basin 45


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PART III WATER BODIES AND ENVIRONMENTAL OBJECTIVES ACHIEVEMENT 51

I.1. Brief overview of European Water Directives 51

I.2. Delineation and characterisation of Water Bodies 52

A- Eco regions and surface water body type 52 B- Delineation and characterization of Surface Water Bodies 53 C- Delineation and characterization of Groundwater Bodies 56

I.3. Pressure & Impact On Water Bodies 64

A- Impact on flow regime of abstraction or regulation 64 B- Description of morphological alteration 65 C- Impact of Land use patterns & population densities 66 D- Significant point and diffuse pollution sources 68

I.4. Resulting Ecological and chemical status of surface water bodies 74

A- Quantity and quality of data available 74 B- Evaluation of the Status of Surface water 75 C- Status of the Groundwater 76

PART IV TOWARD WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO 2010-2035 78

I.1. Scope of the analysis - Key Indicators 78

A- Scope of the Analysis Water Security Objectives 78 B- Environmental flow - Key Water uses within Ibr River Basin 79 C- Methodology - Scenarios Building 80

I.2. Period considered and planned actions 82

I.3. Supply Side: Hydrology, Climate & Water Resources 83

A- Hydro- meteorological information 83 B- Precipitation, Temperature, Evaporation 86 C- Analysis of runoff and basin Yield 90 D- Climate change possible impact 92

I.4. Water supply infrastructure 94

A- The 2010 Water supply Infrastructure 94 B- Resources available for use quality issues Infrastructure Vulnerabilities 101

I.5. DEMAND OF THE KEY WATER USES 102

A- Demand of urban Water needs and communities Water supply 102 B- Demand for Agriculture 106 C- Demand for Power Production 108 D- Demand of Key industries 109

I.6. BASELINE SCENARIO 110

A- Baseline Scenario - Bulk Water Balance & Security Vulnerabilities 110 B- Bulk water balance under baseline scenario 113

I.7. BUILDING SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE 123

A- Justification of range of values for the various parameters used in scenario 123 B- Factors of Uncertainties 123 C- Demand Side Parameters 124 D- Supply Side Parameters 136 E- Selection of Series of Scenarios 139 F- Successive scenarios by varying these factors 139

I.8. RESULTS OF THE SCENARIOS BULK WATER BALANCE UNDER FUTURE CONDITIONS 141


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A- Impact of selected parameters on the water demand 141 B- Hot spots Identification 142

I.9. CONCLUSIONS 151

PART V DRAFT PROGRAM OF MEASURES TOWARDS WATER SECURITY 152

I.1. Terms of reference 152

I.2. Schematic presentation of ToR 153

II. PROCESS OF MEASURE IDENTIFICATION AND ASSESSMENT 154

II.1. Steps for measureS identification and assessment 154

II.2. methods for measure assessment and visualization 155

II.3. Criteria for the assessment of measures 156

II.4. Cost Benefit Analysis 159

A- Overview 159 B- Background 159 C- Assumptions General Methodology 160 D- Assumptions Costs 160 E- Assumptions Benefits 160 F- Steps to neutralize Bias 162

III. PROJECTS AND MEASURES IDENTIFIED 163

III.1. Quantitative Assessment of water security 163

A- Assessment of the water shortage and water saving needs 163 B- Operational shortcomings 163

III.2. Vulnerabilities of Water Security 163

A- Pressure on Water Resource 163 B- Pollution pressure on drinking water resources 164 C- the conveyance system needs rehabilitation and priority allocation 165 D- diversification and allocation of water resource 166

IV. DESCRIPTION OF PROJECT AND MEASURES 168

IV.1. Project 1 - protection of drinking water resources of reservoirs 168

A- Project title 168 B- Beneficiary institutions 168 C- Situation Analysis 168 D- Logical Framework Matrix 170 E- Capital expenditures & Operating expenses 172 F- BENEFITS - Protection of drinking water resource 174 G- Stakeholder Analysis 177 H- Target group beneficiaries 177 I- Implementation arrangements 177

IV.2. PROJECT 2: Groundwater knowledge and protection 178

A- Project title: 178 B- Beneficiary institutions 178 C- Situation Analysis 178 D- Logical framework matrix 179 E- Stakeholder Analysis 183 F- Target group beneficiaries 183


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G- Implementation arrangements 183 IV.3. Project 3: Provision of sufficient water of good quality through the Ibr Lepenc Canal 184


IV.4. Study of options for providing better water security in case of emergency 197


V. INVESTMENT PRIORITIES 208

PART VI ANNEXES 209

I. ANNEX 1: INFORMATION SOURCES 209

II. ANNEX 2: WEAP ACTIVITIES REPORT 211

III. ANNEX III DETAIL OF COSTS OF BENEFITS FOR THE 4 PROJECT/MEASURES 211


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LIST OF FIGURES, MAPS & TABLES

Figure 1: Ibr "River Basin" in Kosovo 15 Figure 2: WEAP graphic interface representing the resource and demand sites 16 Figure 3: Gazivoda reservoir water balance (baseline year 2010) 17 Figure 4: Batllava reservoir water balance (baseline year 2010) 17 Figure 5: Badovc reservoir water balance (baseline year 2010) 18 Figure 6: Gazivoda water balance in 2035 assuming increased demand from all sectors and a dry year condition (under historical meteorological conditions without climate change) 20 Figure 7: Type of losses and illegal connections in Ibr Lepenc canal (Consultant survey August 2010) 27 Figure 8: Bulk water conveyance and Hydro-electricity of the Gazivoda, its buffer reservoir and the gate of IL canal 30 Figure 10: WEAP model modules 33 Figure 11: WEAP hydrography and water system architecture of the Ibr Basin (SCE/OIEau 2010) 35 Figure 12: WEAP scheme of the Ibr Lepenc canal water conveyance and of Prishtina & Mitrovica regions bulk water supply 36 Figure 13: Principle for delineation of Water Bodies Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 14: Criteria for delineation of the Water Bodies in Kosovo Error! Bookmark not defined. Figure 15: Schematic Geological Cross-Section across Central Kosovo (Source ICMM) 58 Figure 16: Environmental flow and sectors using water 79 Figure 17: Infrastructure to capture water in the Ibr River Basin 95 Figure 18: Schematic representation of the Gazivoda, secondary reservoir, hydropower generation and bulk water use along the IL main canal (source BCEOM - Cowi study 2008 from ILE and consultant) 98 Figure 19: WEAP model schematic mapping of the main uses along the IL canal (Source SCE/OIEau) 99 Figure 20: Crops with a good potential of development in Kosovo (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy Feb 2010) 133 Figure 21: Schematic presentation of the objectives of the program of measure as per ToR 153 Figure 22: presentation of the various instruments for measures relevance assessment 155 Figure 23: risk of rupture of conveyance, land slide, solid waste disturbing the flow of water in the IL canal (Consultants survey August 2010) 167 Figure 24: Concept of interconnection between systems in the Ibr River Basin 198 Figure 25: Options for diversifying the sources and routes used for drinking water supply 199 Map 1: Ibr River Basin up to Serbian Border (Source SCE/OIEau 2010) 40 Map 2: Hydrological zones and tributaries of the Ibr River Basin up to the Serbian Border. 41 Map 3: Ibr River Basin, the Regional Water companies area and Kosovo Municipalities 42 Map 4: River basins in Kosovo and Relief in Kosovo 45 Map 5: Ibr River Basin inside the Danube River Basin and riparian countries 46 Map 6: Danube River basin subunits and WISE reporting monitoring point for WFD 48 Map 7: Eco-region as per the European Water Framework Directive 52 Map 8: Delineation of Surface Water Bodies (Source: Water Department and SCE/OIEau consortium 2010) 55 Map 9: Simplified hydrogeology in the Ibr River Basin 59 Map 10: Proposed Ground Water Bodies in the Ibr River Basin in Kosovo 60 Map 11: Localization of the main reservoirs, rivers and uptake of water for uses 64 Map 12: Land use of the Ibr basin (Corine Land cover) 66 Map 13: Land use map of the Ibr River Basin in Kosovo 69 Map 14: Hot spots for water quality in Ibr River Basin in Kosovo 70 Map 15: Simplified Hydrogeology in Ibr Basin, springs and boreholes (source ICMM-WD) 77 Map 16: Hydrometrical network for the Ibr River Basin in Montenegro and Kosovo 83 Map 17: Rainfall stations of the Institute of Hydrometeorology of Kosovo 86 Map 18: Description of the precipitation in the Ibr River Basin in Kosovo 86 Map 19: Range of temperature and altitude in Kosovo (Source IKMIK and USAID Kosovo Agricultural Opportunities Strategy) 87


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Map 20: Hydrological zones for analysis of the runoff and basin yield in Ibr River Basin in Kosovo and Montenegro 90 Map 21: Extension of the Regional Water Companies (RWC) and Municipalities in Ibr River Basin and in Kosovo. 103 Map 24: Precipitation distribution and location of sites of water storages 201 Map 25: Catchment of a possible reservoir in the Drenas River Basin Versant 202 Table 1: WEAP Results Analysis 21 Table 2: Data collection records 37 Table 3: Tributaries of the Ibr River and surface of their river basin 41 Table 4: List and main characteristics of the Municipalities (Source OSCE Municipalities profile 2007 to 2009) 43 Table 5: Main characteristics of sub-basins in Ibr River Basin which are relevant for Water Body delineation 53 Table 6: Table of the Surface Water Bodies 54 Table 7: Characteristics of proposed Ground Water Bodies in the Ibr Basin 61 Table 8: Land use by Corine land cover category in the upper Ibr river basin. 66 Table 9: Polluted soil and point source of industrial pollution (Source KEPA) 71 Table 10: Level of contamination of sediments in the Ibr River in Mitrovica - Source: Ground water pollution in Mitrovica and surroundings 72 Table 11: Chemical analyses in the Ibr River Mitrovica- station Kelmend - from 2003 to 2005 (Source university of Mitrovica) 75 Table 12: Description of the Timeline for scenarios building 82 Table 13: List of the hydrometrical stations in the Ibr River Basin up to the Border with Serbia (Source IHMK 2010) 84 Table 14: Availability of the Hydrological regarding the daily measurement of the water level in the rivers of the upper Ibr River Basin 85 Table 15: Mean temperature in the main towns of the Ibr River Basin 88 Table 16: Evaporation in several stations in Prishtina (Source 1985 Water Master Plan) 88 Table 17: Connected and non connected population in Ibr River Basin (Source: Report on the performance for 2008 from the water and waste regulatory office, Prishtina and Mitrovica Water Companies Directors) 103 Table 18: Key indicators of the Water supply production for the Prishtina and Mitrovica RWC (Source: the report WYG International on Prishtina regional water supply 2009) 104 Table 19: Households demand - regional company public networks (set of assumptions 1) 105 Table 20: Irrigation scheme and irrigated area 107 Table 21: Key parameters for bulk water used for irrigation: Total gross water demand for irrigated agriculture in Ibr basin in 2010 (Source SCE/OIEau IL) 107 Table 22: Water demand for industry in 2010 109 Table 23: Demand parameters and Minimum Biological flow for the baseline scenarios (SCE/OIEau 2010) 111 Table 24: First scenarios of population growth 125 Table 25: Second scenarios of population growth 125 Table 26: Possible evolution of the average daily water consumption due to tariff policy 127 Table 27: Evolution of non-revenue water level Scenario A 128 Table 28: Evolution of non-revenue water level Scenario B 129 Table 29: Domestic water demand under 3 scenarios 129 Table 30: Evolution of the demand from the industry 130 Table 31: Total gross water demand for irrigated agriculture in Ibr basin in 2035 (water saving scenario) 133 Table 32: Water Consumption for Industry 140 Table 33: Impact of different parameters on the Water Demand from Ibr River Basin 141 Table 34: Water missing in Gazivoda system System 1 145 Table 35: WEAP Results Analysis 150 Table 36: Water Security Criteria used to prioritize the Program of Measures 158 Table 38: Benefits for Protection of drinking water resources 175 Table 40: Cost and benefits for canal protection 193 Table 42: Characteristic of possible water storages in Ibr River basin 200


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Graph 1: Land use in the upper Ibr river basin 67 Graph 2: Mean temperature in the main towns of the Ibr River Basin 88 Graph 3: Monthly mean evaporation in the Gazivoda Reservoir 89 Graph 4: Inter-annual variation of mean annual flow at Ribari station (Ibr) 1948-1978 91 Graph 5: Frequency - debit curve for the annual flow for the period 1948 to 1978 91 Graph 6: Mean monthly flow in the Ribari and Prelez stations (period 1948 to 1978) 92 Graph 7: Monthly flow at Ribari station for dry, wet and medium year during 92 Graph 8: Modelling Spatial Scale and Uncertainty 93 Graph 9: Box with the variation of hydrological parameters due to climate change for 2030-2039 94 Graph 10: Variations of the water inflow in Gazivoda reservoir (Source: 1985 Water Master Plan IL Company)96 Graph 11: Variations of inflow in the Batllava reservoir (Source 1985 Water Master plan) 100 Graph 12: Variations of inflow in the Badovc reservoir (Source 1985 Water Master plan) 100 Graph 13: WEAP results inflow and outflow of the Gazivoda reservoir 113 Graph 14: Gazivoda Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 114 Graph 15: Gazivoda Water Balance 2010 cumulated values (mil mc) 114 Graph 16: WEAP results inflows and outflow of Batllava Reservoir for 2010 baseline scenario 116 Graph 17: Batllava Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 117 Graph 18: Batllava Water Balance 2010 cumulated values (mil mc) 117 Graph 19: WEAP results inflows and outflow of Badovc Reservoir for 2010 baseline scenario 119 Graph 20: Badovc Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 120 Graph 21: Badovc Water Balance 2010 cumulated values (mil mc) 120 Graph 22: Kuzmin Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 121 Graph 23: Kuzmin Water Balance 2010 cumulated values (mil mc) 121 Graph 24: Lypjan Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 121 Graph 25: Lypjan Water Balance 2010 cumulated values (mil mc) 121 Graph 26: Shtime Monthly Inflow and Outflow (mil mc) 122 Graph 27: Shtime Water Balance 2010 cumulated values (mil mc) 122 Graph 28: Evolution of export of agricultural commodities from Kosovo (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy Feb 2010) 131 Graph 29: Kosovo price for agricultural commodities compared to EU FOB Origin Price (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy Feb 2010) 132 Graph 30: Comparison between the level of agricultural commodities export in various European countries (Source USAID study on Kosovo Agriculture Opportunities Strategy Feb 2010) 132 Graph 31: Box for selection of value for parameters impact by the climate change (World Bank document). 138 Graph 32: Water Situation in IL Channel, 2035, dry year period 143 Graph 33: Water Situation in IL Channel, 2035, very dry year period 144 Graph 34: Unmet demand in Badovc system System 2 Population Scenario 2020 145 Graph 35: Unmet demand in Badovc system System 2 Population Scenario 2035 146 Graph 36: Unmet demand in Badovc system System 2 Dry year Scenario 2020 146 Graph 37: Unmet demand in Badovc system System 2 Dry year Scenario 2035 147 Graph 38: Unmet demand in Batllava system System 2 Dry year Scenario 2035 147 Graph 39: Unmet demand in Badovc system System 2 Very dry year Scenario 2020 148 Graph 40: Unmet demand in Badovc system System 2 Very dry year Scenario 2035 148 Graph 41: Unmet demand in Batllava system System 2 Very dry year Scenario 2035 149 Graph 42: value of criteria for collection 173 Graph 43: value of criteria for protection of drinking water resource 174 Graph 46: cost benefit Analysis Net Present Value for the measure/project 3 improvement of Ibr-Lepenc Canal 189 Graph 47: Localisation and type of conveyance system to rehabilitate to save water (WEAP model SCE/OIEau 2010) 191 Graph 48: Leakage protection - Total Score for criteria 192 Graph 49: Canal Protection - Total score for criteria 193 Graph 51: Total score for criteria equipment for water measurement and regulation 195 Graph 52: Cost Benefit Analysis- Measure/Project 4 Study of Water Security Contingencies 206


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ACRONYMS

CBA Cost Benefit Analysis

EC European Communities

ECLO European Liaison Office in Kosovo

EU European Union

KEPA Kosovo Environment Protection Agency

GIS Geographical Information System

GWB Ground Water Body

ICMM Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals

ICPDR International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River

IHMK Institute of Hydrometeorology of Kosovo

ILC Ibr Lepenc Canal

OIEau Office International de lEau

RB River Basin

RBD River Basin District

RDM Robust Decision Making

RWC Regional Water Company

WBo Water Body

WB World Bank

WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System

WFD Water Framework Directive


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Executive Summary

A- Context and Objectives

1. Kosovo is a small and young state that gained an interim UN-administered status in the wake of the

Dayton Peace Accord only in 1999; it declared independence in 2008. Compared to neighbouring countries, it is

still lacking in its basic infrastructure and its administrative and technical skills. In addition, with the onset of the

War in Yugoslavia in 1992 most investment and normal maintenance came to a standstill. Much of the publicly

owned infrastructure fell into disrepair or was vandalized, but private investments led to a construction boom

which, however, is leading to many environmental problems. The government is committed to reconstruction

and to the development of a peaceful state. It also intends to align with EU policies

2. Lying in the southern Balkans, Kosovo is landlocked. While its mountainous western and southern

fringes are plentiful in water, its central/northern high-lying plateau, that covers about half of the country's

territory, is short of water featuring only a few minor rivers and brooks. Most rivers and wells are polluted, or at

serious risk. Yet, it is precisely this area that holds the country's largest population share, including its capital

Prishtina, as well as most of the mining activities, substantial agriculture, and most of its industry. This area

also contains the industrial growth area along the Durrs-Prishtina-Belgrade corridor, now under development.

Importantly, the country's two main (thermal) power plants are also located near Prishtina next to large lignite

deposits; the World Bank is assisting with the development of a privately-financed third, modern facility ("New

Kosovo"), decommissioning of the oldest plant ("Kosovo A") and refurbishing of the second oldest ("Kosovo B").

This economic heart of the country depends for its water mostly on the Ibr-Lepenc canal that conveys water

from the large Gazivoda reservoir in the north, built in the late 1970s. The canal is about 50 km long and has a

nominal capacity at its inlet of more than 10m3/sec but with losses of above 50% its delivery capacity declines

along its run. The reservoir lies partly in Serbia, but its dam and the canal lie inside Kosovo albeit in the region

that is dominated by communities of Serbian ethnicity. Two other much smaller reservoirs east of Prishtina

(Batllava and Badovc) have thus far provided water for Prishtina municipality and other towns and local industry.

3. Groundwater resources have not been researched well in Kosovo. In the alluvial plain of the Sidnica

river affluent of the Ibr River the groundwater is abundant but very vulnerable to local pollution. Still, in many

villages on the central/northern plateau groundwater is used for household consumption.

4. The agricultural sector is in general still poorly organized in this part of Kosovo. Some irrigation

infrastructure is still functioning but on a small scale at around 1000 ha per year. The Ibr-Lepenc Canal

Company offers irrigation contracts to farmers at a low price for the irrigation periods. Most of the irrigated area

is devoted to potato cultivation, which is a tradition in the Sidnica plain. The town centres are provided with

piped water, but connection rates are generally low except in Prishtina, and physical losses are still substantial.

Donors, such as the Swiss cooperation, USAID, KfW, UNDP and the EU are very active in the improvement and

expansion of water supply and drainage services, notably inside the Prishtina area and recent measures taken

by the Prishtina Regional Water Company to reduce losses and improve the bill payment rate proved to be

efficient last year. Sewerage is mostly lacking and only one town has an operational wastewater treatment plant.

5. This study responds to the request by the Government to contribute to the updating of the Water

Strategy and Plan; offer direction for the new sector policy; identify practical, priority investments; and by doing

so help alignment with the EU acquis and its policies. Because of the limited budget, and the numerous on-

going donor activities, care was taken to target the study on a subject that would be strategically significant and

where the Bank would add value. Most donors support studies and investment in water supply and some

wastewater management and drainage, as well as catchment management. Few donor efforts thus far have

addressed the more complicated water resources management issues covering all water uses because of its


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cross-sectoral nature and longer-term institutional implications. Central (and northern) Kosovo was selected for

the study as it is the area of most concern because 80% of the economic value is located there, including the

capital, whilst it likely will be facing the most constrained and vulnerable water resources and supply situation

over the next decade due to population and economic pressures. Also, the Bank is supporting there other major

activities that would benefit from this study, notably the "New Kosovo" Lignite Power Plant that will depend on

secure 24 hour water supply for cooling.

6. Thus, the study has the specific objectives to: (i) assist the government to improve its river basin

planning and management by providing (for demonstration purposes) a replicable tool/simulation model for

integrated river basin planning and management; and (ii) support the government in its identification of priority

measures of structural and non-structural nature to help strengthen the water resources sector performance.

The source(s) for the financing of the identified projects would need to be identified further by the Government

as the World Bank has not committed to involvement in the sector.

7. The economy and the towns of central Kosovo have an insecure water future. As mentioned, the Ibr-

Lepenc canal is a man-made artificial lifeline for supplying central Kosovo continuously with water. The study

has analyzed three key premises: (i) bulk water supply in central Kosovo may become inadequate to satisfy

growing demand; (ii) climate change is likely to exacerbate the shortfall in supply; and (iii) the available

infrastructure to collect and transport this bulk water is in poor condition and vulnerable due to the absence of

maintenance and modernization over the past two decades. Recently repairs of the major leakages were carried

out by the Ibr-Lepenc Canal Company. The Ibr-Lepenc canal in particular is operational but increasingly

vulnerable to acute disruption by notably landslides, leakages and, with politics not fully settled yet, other kinds

of disruption. It may not be prepared to keep providing reliable and expanding high-quality water service in the

longer-run given the pollution pressures, and growing uncertainty due to variability in demand and climate. The

study would then propose realistic "no-regret" measures specifically geared to increase supply reliability and

resilience to the likely demand variability in the main existing and future demand nodes, notably the "New

Kosovo" power plant and the refurbished Kosovo B plant; the municipal and industrial water supply in and near

Prishtina as well as Mitrovice, Vushstrij and several other towns on the plateau; and irrigation, now still near

zero demand but expected to rise soon. The study would take an integrated approachtreating the plateau as

a coherent hydrological unit comprising several water sources (the Gazivoda and the two other reservoirs, as

well as groundwater) and seek ways to reduce sources of security risks, and enhance the reliability of expanded

bulk water supply, at minimum cost.

B- Integrated River Basin Planning and Water Balance

8. For its integrated river basin planning and water balance analysis, the study has utilized the WEAP

(Water Evaluation and Planning System) simulation model of which the software is not proprietary and does not

require sophisticated data collection. The Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning is familiar with WEAP.

The study has now provided a database and a baseline for the Ibr catchment and central Kosovo area. The

study has also adopted the experience from an earlier EU-funded study on the Drini river basin; taken together,

the two studies have now developed the models for the largest and most significant river basins in Kosovo. This

study applied a methodology especially for surface water and groundwater aquifer delineation that is compliant

with the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD). While the limited scope of this study obviously cannot provide a

full river basin management plan which meets the detailed requirements of the WFD, it provides a compliant

methodology and framework that can be replicated for more in-depth analysis on these two basins or to cover


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the other basins. However, no primary data collection has been carried out, but existing yet very scattered data

compiled and assessed for consistency and reliability.

9. The planning has notably taken into account the environmental flow requirements and the trans-

boundary issues, as the water in the Ibr-Lepenc canal essentially is abstracted from the Ibr river which,

downstream from the reservoir and after its use in Kosovo, returns to Serbia and flows into the Morava and

from there the Danube. Environmental flow requirements have been estimated in a simple fashion and taken

"off the top" when calculating water balances. The Ibr river rises in Montenegro and passes through Serbia,

and, beyond the Gazivoda reservoir and its Ibr-Lepenc canal in Kosovo, returns to Serbia. The issues

related to the transboundary nature have been discussed. The requirements for prior notification of riparian

countries on significant investments on the river are complicated since Serbia and other downstream

riparians on the Ibr-Morava-Danube system do not recognize the Government of Kosovo. Specific legal

advice will be needed for any measure which requires notification. However, precedents exist in the post-

Yugoslavia areas where the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube (and in other but

similar cases, the International Sava Commission), have acted as facilitating intermediaries.

C- Bulk Water Supply Vulnerability and Water Security in Central Kosovo

10. Taking the central Kosovo region as one hydrological and economic unit--the "Ibr basin"three rivers or

sub-basins can be distinguished, each with its reservoir, which are connected hydrologically and economically.

The main tributaries and reservoirs are illustrated in figure 1. The Ibr-Lepenc canal "sub- basin" draws its water

from the Gazivoda reservoir. The canal runs south from the Gazivoda dam parallel to the Sitnica river, which in

turn is a tributary to the downstream part of the Ibr and carries central Kosovo's polluted return flows back to

Serbia. The canal specifically supplies for the moment water to the hydropower plant (35 MW), to the towns of

Mitrovice, Vushtrij, and some smaller neighbouring towns as well as to the two thermal power plants, the

industrial development zone along the Durrs-Prishtina--Belgrade corridor, and some irrigation. Over the next

few years, however, the canal will also supply bulk water for Prishtina municipality (starting in 2013), the third

thermal power plant New Kosovo (after 2014), as well as the expected substantial expansion of irrigated areas.

Thus, this sub-basin river encompasses the main towns and main economic activities of Kosovo.

11. The Liap and Gracaniqa sub-basins feature the Batllava and Badovc reservoirs, respectively, and

currently both supply the Prishtina Regional Water Company with water for the population of Prishtina and

smaller communities in the capital's neighbourhood. This situation is unlikely to change in the future as the

maximum supply capacity of these catchments has been reached and the reservoirs are likely to rather

experience capacity reduction in the future due to expanding, unregulated land use and increasing pollution

pressure.


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Figure 1: The Ibr "river basin" in Central and North Kosovo

12. The concern on water security in the Ibr basin refers to three dimensions:

The current capability of the water resource and reservoir infrastructure to provide a

reliable supply of water to meet all demands, under the current conditions (2010) ;

The capability of the water resource and reservoir infrastructure to provide reliable supply

of water over the next decades, by 2020 and 2035, under dry-year and very dry year

conditions taking into account likely scenarios of climate change but also increases in

population, agriculture and industrial activity; and

The capability of the physical infrastructure in the form of the reservoirs and the water

conveyance systems to do so in a reliable fashion.


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Figure 2: The WEAP graphic interface representing the resource and demand sites as modelled

13. Bulk water security as it is considered in this study, is not limited to the question of absolute water

resource scarcity. Rather, it refers to the overall vulnerability and the (lack of) reliability and robustness of the

natural and the physical water supply systems under different scenarios of simultaneously decreasing supply

capacity and growing demand. Under current annual-average conditions (for the baseline year 2010) the two

storage facilities in the basin Gazivoda and Batllava have sufficient water supply capability to meet demand

throughout the year. The WEAP simulation model was applied to study the discrepancy in the quantities

between water supply and demand, using the resource and demand nodes as described in figure 2. The

simulation results are presented in figures 3, 4 and 5, for each of the three reservoirs. The water balance (supply

and demand) is presented each time in accumulative fashion over the year. A (yellow) line denotes a risk


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indicator: it is the cumulative inflow in a very dry year, which is taken here at a representative 50% of the

baseline year inflow. The Gazivoda reservoir has ample reserve capacity, however, it should be noted that the

water demand as per 2010 is still severely depressed in all sectors, and will over the next 5-10 years see a

marked increase, that at this stage is not possible to define more precisely. Also, the Ibr-Lepenc canal is for the

moment sometimes unable to realize this potential as it is constrained in its carrying capacity. The Batllava

reservoir similarly has still some reserve capacity available; however, under very dry year condition a clear risk

exists that the water level in the reservoir will be falling well below its normal level (as suggested qualitatively by

the yellow line on the figure which represents a 50% lower-than-average inflow); two dry years in succession

would lead to emergency situations. In addition, it is the catchment that is most vulnerable to pressures due to

changes in land use and increasing pollution. The Badovc reservoir under current conditions does not provide

sufficient water resources to meet the demand from 35% of Prishtina city even under average precipitation

conditions (red columnsdemandsystematically far exceeding the blue columns of the inflow).

Figure 3: Gazivoda reservoir water balance (for baseline year 2010)

Figure 4: Batllava reservoir water balance (for baseline year 2010)


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Figure 5: Badovc reservoir water balance (for baseline year 2010)

14. Thus, the Ibr basin overall can be expected to have sufficient water availability at most key water

demand nodes over the whole year under current conditions. However, in the near future and under

assumptions of unfavourable climate change and strong increases in urban, industrial and agricultural demand

for water, the WEAP scenario shows that the water resources will not balance the demand over a year. The

demand structure may gradually shift, and the reliability in the medium term of the Batllava and especially local

groundwater is likely to decrease.

15. The Badovc reservoir is under current conditions already in a critical situation and needs to be carefully

reviewed further. Any demand growth directed at Badovc reservoir is likely to shift to the Gazivoda source.

16. The study assessed the structural integrity and constructive quality of the bulk water conveyance

systems, in particular the Ibr-Lepenc canal. This infrastructure needs rehabilitation, as well as protection

against accidental blockages, pollution and other causes of disruption. Water losses are significant in the current

conveyance systems, and some hot spots of water losses have been repaired at comparatively low cost.

Additional, major losses can be repaired similarly; however, additional losses reduction might be costly as it will

be necessary to repair the canal lining over long stretches. In addition, mud slides, debris and, occasionally,

animals that end up in the unprotected Ibr-Lepenc canal, and polluted run-off from the surrounding fields and

streets, all imperil both the reliability and the quality of the bulk water supply service. The bacteriological and

chemical pollution and the debris are also increasingly affecting the water quality proper, which is a growing

concern as all three water sources will soon be used intensively for municipal tap water supply. A separate

report1 has assessed dam safety and based on its recommendations this study does not address this issue.

1 Kosovo Irrigation Rehabilitation Project - Dam Safety Component, 2004, under EU support, carried out by DHV Consultants. The report

assesses the structural safety of the 5 dams (Gazivoda, Batllava, Badovc, Radoniqi and Prilepnica) and concludes that their relatively recent construction and good building standards have prevented development of major emergencies thus far. However, on all dams safety issues are emerging (piping, bulging, sagging, etc.) and concerns are arising regarding the adequacy of the spillway and emergency procedures. The report accepts that repair is not yet high priority but recommends vigilance and deeper follow-up, at an estimated cost of 1 million).


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17. The municipal and key industrial water supply systems are for the moment supplied through individual

piping and canal systems, which are often beyond their economic lifetime, or in dire need of rehabilitation and

modernization. Rehabilitation work has been started. In order to reduce their vulnerability to supply disruption,

additional storage needs to be built and these systems to be better interconnected to bridge critical supply

periods. At the moment water supply to the major towns is vulnerable as the supplies are not diversified. With

Prishtina municipal water supply drawing soon (as per 2014) water from the Ibr-Lepenc canal for the first time,

the city will have taken a step to diversify its current dependence on the Batllava and Badovc reservoirs.

Similarly, additional storage capacity along the Ibr-Lepenc canal is advisable to provide the buffer to secure

water supply under extreme circumstances to the new and larger New Kosovo power plant as well as the

refurbished Kosovo B plant.

18. The trend towards increasing pollution of groundwater needs to be reversed. Groundwater is increasingly

polluted. Ninety percent of the town and rural population without access to a piped network depend on shallow

wells or boreholes for drinking and cooking. The pollution of groundwater is growing due to the rapid pace of

urbanization on the land around cities and the emergence of small industrial facilities in the absence of effective

pollution prevention mechanisms. To achieve the objective of safe water supply, piped water supply systems

need to be further expanded to increase the connection rates, and measures need to be taken towards

groundwater pollution control. Such policies should be developed in an integrated water management strategy

for the basin, which is to be in line with the EU WFD.

19. The quality of the return and used waters that are collected in the Sidnica river is very poor. This presents

potentially a threat for human health locally, and may become a source of conflict with the downstream riparian

(Serbia).

20. Over the next two decades demand will grow while climate change and variability will likely reduce

precipitation. Thus, shortages may occur in the system. Using the WEAP model, a number of scenarios were

developed for the period up to the year 2035. Each scenario takes progressively more factors into account in

order to test the vulnerability of the system. Since the reservoir systems are not interconnected at the moment,

water needs and availability are calculated for each reservoir separately. Scenario 1 only considers the increase

of water needs for human consumption. Scenario 2 in addition considers growing irrigation needs. The existing

irrigation system (mostly fallen into disrepair) was designed originally for 19,000 hectares, could service 8,000

hectares, but in 2010 only 1000 hectares were actually irrigated. Scenario 2 assumes that in total 10,000

hectares will be irrigated in the Ibr basin by 2035. Scenario 3 adds demand from industry and mining, as well

as the increased consumptive demand resulting from cooling purposes (of which most is non-consumptive).

Scenario 4 looks at how scenario 3 will cope in a dry year under historical meteorological conditions. Finally,

Scenario 5 analyzes the risk stemming from dry years becoming even drier as a consequence of non-historical

climate change. Scenario 4 is illustrated for the Gazivoda reservoir (fig. 5).


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Figure 6: Gazivoda water balance in 2035 assuming increased demand from all sectors and under historical dry

year condition (i.e. under historical meteorological conditions without climate change)

21. Water resource shortages are increasingly likely to occur in future dry years if no adaptive action is taken.

As figure 6 illustrates for the Gazivoda dam, that has the largest reserve capacity by far for bulk water supply for

the moment, shortages in dry years will occur by or around 2035, especially in the months April through August

during the irrigation season. However, for the Badovc and Batllava reservoirs the structural shortages in dry

years will likely start occurring already from before 2010, and from 2020, respectively. It should be noted that

these simulations for the Gazivoda reservoir assume that unmet demand for the Badovc and Batllava reservoirs

from the areas south and east of Prishtina would not be shifted to the Gazivoda/Ibr-Lepenc canal system. Nor

do these simulations anticipate that growing land and pollution pressures on these reservoirs may actually

depress their supply capacity. It is likely, however, that over the next two decades a growing demand from this

part of the basin will be effectively shifted to the Gazivoda/Ibr-Lepenc canal, which would irrevocably lead this

system to meet its maximum supply capacity sometime between 2020 and 2030. Table 1 summarizes the

analysis made on the results obtained under WEAP model development.


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Table 1: WEAP results analysis indicating risk levels under 5 scenarios

System Scenario By 2020 By 2035

System 1 - Gazivoda System

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Worst Case scenario

System 2 Batllava System

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Worst Case scenario

System 2 Badovc System

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Worst Case scenario

System 3 Groundwater System

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Worst Case scenario

22. In conclusion, the capacity of the existing water resources, i.e. the reservoirs and groundwater, to

satisfy current demand and the demand in the immediate future (2013-2017) is adequate for two reservoirs and

inadequate for that part of Prishtina city that is supplied by the Badovc reservoir. However, in the short term, the

Bulk water supply lower than demand but risk of occasional shortage -- measures to be prepared

Demand exceeds supply water saving measures essential

Not applicable

Water security assured but limited initiate implementation of adaptive measures


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main concern regarding the vulnerability of the system, and the security of water provision, refers to the poor

condition of the conveyance structures, the absence of buffer capacity to bridge temporary shortage, the lack of

interconnectedness of the different demand zones in the basin, and the lack of a planning mechanism to identify

priorities both for investment and for water allocation to the various users of bulk water conveyed.

D- Priority Measures and Investments

23. In response to this vulnerability, the study has identified structural and non-structural priority

measures and has identified a number of investment and policy concepts, which will require further analysis.

The structural measures in the immediate short term include: (i) reduction of losses in the bulk transmission

systems, (ii) establishment of interconnections for water transfer between the different systems/zones in the Ibr

basin, and (iii) protection of the Ibr-Lepenc canal against blockages, pollution and other types of disruption. The

non-structural measures include: (i) protection measures for catchment areas (policies, monitoring, enforcement,

administrative capacity and staff training, etc.), (ii) enhanced monitoring and data collection in particular for

groundwater, and (iii) enhanced monitoring and data collection for hydrology purposes in general.

24. For the longer run, the creation of additional water supply and storage would need to be examined. (This

could be from an enhanced Gazivoda/Ibr system; construction of a new reservoir on the Lepenc in the south

with conveyance canal to Central Kosovo2; and a conveyance system, possibly involving deep groundwater,

from the west of the country). Replacing the existing open canal for conveying clean water from Gazivoda

reservoir by a pressurised pipe to reduce losses is also a possibility. Reduction of the consumption per capita is

to be encouraged. It should be reminded that it is not sure that irrigation will expand to 10,000 ha and that drip

irrigation can reduce the overall water consumption.

25. Measures have been packaged and prioritized using several criteria. Preliminary economic analysis

of prioritized packages has been carried out. The measures have been considered and assessed using a multi-

criteria approach. Each measure has been analyzed with respect to: stakeholder commitment, environmental

impact, transboundary consequences, economic development impact and immediate employment impacts,

technical complexity, flexibility and readiness. Four priority project packages have been identified. The first

package is already ongoing and is mentioned for completeness. For each package the components have been

identified and a cost-benefit analysis, also based on NPV calculation (Net Present Value) has been carried out.

However, the analysis has suggested that most of these measures can be considered "no regret" measures, as

they need to be taken irrespective of the different development scenarios, and to address situations that will

soon take emergency forms due to the poor condition of the infrastructure and the growing demand against

stagnating supply.

26. A project to improve connectivity for Prishtina and enhance water supply reliability is expected to

start in 2012. A project has been developed by the Prishtina Regional Water Company with KfW funding. This

project would draw part of the water supply of Prishtina from the Ibr-Lepenc canal, thus making the water

supply of Prishtina less vulnerable (more secure). At the same time, this investment will further increase the

2 The Bank has advised the government through this same Advisory Activity that the 1980 designs for the Lepenc reservoirs are not any

longer realistic. Yet, an alternative reservoir site and conveyance system have been identified, however, their cost are beyond the reach of the country at this moment (KosovoTowards a Water Strategic Action Plan: Assessment of water demand and supply, and of the feasibility of the South Ibr-Lepenc Scheme, The World Bank, November 2009.


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importance of securing uninterrupted water supply from the Ibr- Lepenc canal, as well as taking precautionary

action to minimize the opportunities for pollution of the canal water.

27. A project package to secure uninterrupted water supply of good quality from the Ibr- Lepenc

canal (estimated cost up to 31 million). This package includes the following investment measures: (i) repair

of the canal (lining, abutments, foundations, cuttings, culverts, etc.) and protection against renewed physical

damage from landslides, unstable soils, and man-made disruptions, (ii) short-term storage along the canal to

bridge peak water demand and temporary outages for repair purposes, (iii) protection of the canal against

recurrent pollution, accidental pollution and other threats and disruptions, through interventions such as fencing

and covers, (iv) equipment for better management of gates and regulation of water flows, (v) establishment of a

stakeholder platform for a dialogue on allocation rules, (vi) support to the establishment of rules for water

allocation and prioritization between competing demands, and (vii) capacity building for Ibr- Lepenc Canal

Water Company for these issues as well as training on how to deal with emergency situations. The total cost

has been estimated at about 31 million. The benefit-cost ratio is higher than 1.1. The largest cost component is

the proposed lining of 25 kilometres of the canal at an estimated cost of 25 million for a complete renovation

which could be considered excessive. However, this option could still provide benefits in the long run as the

amount of water available would be larger. The proposed length, cost and other specifics will have to be tested

and appraised in a feasibility study. With a certain budget available, a key task for the feasibility study would be

to identify the sections that most urgently need lining.

28. A package for pilot groundwater knowledge development and protection (estimated at 1.4

million). This package includes the following investment measures: (i) description of characteristics and

identification of significant pressures on (pilot) groundwater bodies, (ii) installation of groundwater monitoring

networks, and (iii) support to farmers to establish physical measures to protect drinking water supply. The total

investment costs have been assessed at about 1.4 million, and the benefit-cost ratio to be above 3. The project

is a pilot project, which addresses the key issue of groundwater protection in the Ibr basin. Groundwater

protection is particularly important for the rural population which is not connected to centralized piped water

supply.

29. A project package for protection of drinking water reservoirs (estimated at 12 million). This

package would include the following investment measures: (i) preparation of a protection plan for each of the

three reservoirs in line with the EU Drinking Water Directive, (ii) equipment for monitoring of hydrology and water

quality, (iii) capacity building of staff, (iv) sanitation facilities for recreational facilities at the reservoirs, (v) septic

tanks and wastewater and run-off drainage for rural (low-density) residences, farms and businesses not planned

to be connected to a centralized drainage and wastewater system, and, last but not least, (vi) land purchase for

headwaters conservation areas. The total investment costs have been assessed to be approximately 12 million

(including land purchases) and the benefit-cost ratio to be approximately 2.

E- Conclusion

30. The study has documented the importance of investing in water security in central Kosovo and has

identified no-regret priority measures for the short term within a planning horizon of 3-6 years. The study would

need to be complemented by deeper analysis, notably to confirm that the proposed no-regret measures are

indeed the best and most cost-effective options to address the rising lack of supply security. However, the

proposed measures are likely essential to reduce the vulnerability of the economic heart of Kosovo to water

shortages in dry years due to supply interruption and to pollution, and climate change that will substantially

deteriorate the water balance, after 2020.


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PART I CONTEXT, CONCEPT AND TOOLS

I. REPORT SCOPE & PROJECT AREA This study is part of a larger program with the development objective to secure future water supply to strategic sectors in Kosovo. The strategic sectors include domestic water use, power and irrigation as well as key industries.

The specific objectives for this study are:

1) To assist the Government of Kosovo in improving its river basin planning and management by providing for demonstration purposes a replicable model for integrated river basin planning and management. This model will take into account the status of Kosovo as a potential EU candidate country and thus the need to move towards alignment with the EU acquis, including but not limited to the Water Framework Directive.

2) To support the Government of Kosovo in its identification of structural and non-structural priority measures within the water sector, broadly to achieve its socio-economic development objectives as well as good water quality in the Ibr basin. This will be done by providing for demonstration purposes a multi-criteria model for prioritization of measures as well as identifying and describing initial priority investments that would meet the criteria for possible co-funding by the World Bank.

Due to time and data limitations, as mentioned in the inception report, SCE/OIEau worked focusing on the following aspects:

- Water bodies delineation and pressure analysis, status of water bodies, measures to achieve environmental objective;

- Measures to secure water supply for the different users: households, agricultural sector, industry and mining sector in the urban and rural areas of Central Kosovo;

The team has considered also the aim of providing better water security in all circumstances in Central Kosovo and ecosystem restoration. They are essential aspects especially for the following objectives:

- Enabling the environment for public and private investment

- Achieving the Good status of Water Bodies (as stipulated as the guiding objective in the Water Framework Directive).


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II.1. CONCEPT OF WATER SECURITY FOR THIS STUDY

For water security assessment, the waters can be divided in three categories:

Water resources: the water of springs, streams, lakes, reservoirs, rivers, groundwater, including the river beds and the aquifer geological layers;

Bulk water: the water in a canal or in large pipes which are regulated by gates or valves and can be distributed for users of various sectors through a water supply system;

Water for end users: this is the water which has been distributed such as tap water, cooling water in generator, irrigation water in sprinklers.

In this study, we considered Water Security as a policy including the following objectives:

- Ensure, on a continuous, undisturbed basis, a degree of comfort for bulk water supply, avoiding water shortages in dry years or a series of dry years.

- Ensure that in case of emergency due to the damage of a key water infrastructure, there are alternative resources and parts of the water systems continue to function, which could reduce dramatic socio-economic costs.

- Ensure that Water Security is available at a fair price and is in line with sustainable management of companies and environment protection.

II.2. PRELIMINARY OBJECTIVES FOR WATER SECURITY

A policy of water security can be briefly characterised by a number of principles such as the following, which are proposed by the Consultant:

Equitable and reasonable water allocation including transboundary waters (concept of international legislation);

Contribute to achieve a sustainable water resource management, through tariff policy and reference to principle such as water users pays and polluter pays,

Protection of water resource for future uses and for biological balance of ecosystems

Ensuring a degree of continuity in bulk water supply, even in drought years and emergency conditions to avoid or reduce socio-economic losses.

The degree of security to be achieved is not defined precisely or in quantifiable statistical terms in this study, but these general principles formed guidelines for the criteria to prioritize measures and for the measures assessment process.

II. COMMON UNDERSTANDING: MOVING TOWARDS WATER SECURITY IN CENTRAL KOSOVO


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III. INFLUENCE ON WATERS SECURITY OF THE CHANGING SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONTEXT IN CENTRAL KOSOVO

III.1. ISSUES REGARDING THE IBR LEPENC CANAL

The Ibr Lepenc (IL) water infrastructureits reservoirs, canals, and related works--was designed more than 30 years ago. At that time, there were plans to irrigate 20 000 ha in Central Kosovo. The course of historical events has thwarted these plans. As a matter of fact, in 2009 and 2010 less than 1000 ha were irrigated. The IL canal is large enough and the quantity of water in the Gazivoda reservoir is sufficient to cover the demand of various users. In 2011 a large quantity of the water from the reservoir has flown back to the Ibr river and to Serbia.

The lack of maintenance of the IL canal during the years of wars and its aftermaths led to degradation and important water losses. The Ibr-Lepenc Canal Company started to repair the canal structure where losses were causing nuisances. This rehabilitation effort was made possible by the revenues generated by selling hydro-electricity to Kosovo Electricity Company (KEK) and bulk water to various users, mostly industries and power plants.

The managers of the IL Canal Company informed the consultant that the main issues they have to tackle are the following:

a large number of illegal connections alongside the canal diverts water,

run-off and sediments enter the canal during high rainfall. The devices which were constructed to reduce the impact of sediment are damaged and do no longer work properly; they need to be rehabilitated and expanded,

solid waste is dumped in the canal and accumulates at the grids preventing their entry in siphons; this requires constant attention,

structural defects in the canal structure cause water losses. When these are important points of losses, the water flowing outside the canal can cause nuisances to surrounding properties and infrastructure,

landslides were observed in 2010 along the canal. If no protective measures are taken soon, the soil movements close to the canal can endanger the structure and cause important damages,

techniques and equipment need to be introduced to allow to divert water

inside the canal without cutting the water flow. Some parts of the canal

siphons have not been inspected from the inside since their construction

because the water has to flow non-stop in the canal to provide cooling

water for power plants. Hence, the repairs are performed preferably

when the flow of water is not too high. When there will be a higher level of

utilization of the canal bulk water used, rehabilitation work will be harder.

The Consultants canal survey in August 2010 confirmed the above assessments.

For several years, especially in 2009 and 2010, the IL Canal Company has proceeded to repair the canal structures. Priority was given to location of major losses. Rehabilitation works were also undertaken in locations where there are risks of future nuisances or damages on public structures.


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Another important trend is the house and building construction boom and poor land zoning enforcement. Houses and small business compounds are built around towns and villages without consideration of the impact on the water flows, the canal system, or the possibility to expand irrigation in the future. As a result, many branches of the existing old irrigation systems cannot be used anymore because houses were constructed on top of the pipes. The area which can be irrigated with the current irrigation system is therefore shrinking from year to year.

Figure 7: Type of losses and illegal connections in Ibr Lepenc canal (Consultant survey, August 2010)

III.2. INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT

The use of the bulk water from the Ibr-Lepenc canal will increase in the coming years.

Plans exist for the water from the IL canal to be used for the production of drinking water to serve the population and other users of the towns of Mitrovica, Vushtry and Prishtina.

In addition, it has been proposed that the water flowing at the end of the canal be utilized for cooling the power plant called New Kosovo, which is planned to be constructed. It will be composed of two units of 280-300 MW each, going on-line in 2016-2017. Additional generation will be needed after about 2020, it is expected that future energy needs might be provided by non-thermal sources. Anyhow, before 2035, the planned new power generation will need water.

This evolution of the use of the water of Ibr Lepenc canal has several implications:


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For drinking water production: the quality of water should besatisfactory all the time. This means that the water used has to be protected from contamination of toxic substances. This is an issue as the IL canal is a mostly open canal surrounded by human activities,

The disruption of conveyance that might occur should not exceed several days lest it will create difficulties in power generation which requires a continuous supply of cooling water.

To secure continuous supply of water to the power plant and avoid a possible disruption of bulk water conveyance of water, it is planned to construct buffer water storages facilities.

For the New Kosovo project a storage corresponding to 10 days of water demand was proposed. As for the newly planned Prishtina water treatment plant, storage is also planned. (see: Kosovo C- Strategic Environmental Social Assessment p 52)

Other options can be envisaged, such as a common storage, the installation of pumps for groundwater abstraction along the canal, or a separate, smaller water conveyance pipe going serving the cooling system in case of emergency.

However, there is a risk that these storages will not be sufficient:

For instance,

- In case the flow of cooling water cannot be re-established within 10 days (e.g., due to an earthquake) the increased power cuts will have high risk of economical and social losses,

- the water stored and conveyed for producing drinking water can become contaminated as the IL Canal is a (mostly) open and unprotected canal. As a result, drinking water production might have to be temporarily discontinued. If the contamination is not detected in time, people may be using contaminated tap water.

It is important to note that the quality required for drinking water production is higher than the one needed for cooling power generators or for irrigation.

What will happen in case of shortage or reduction of the flow at the end of the canal where the largest and economically most significant users are situated? During such water crisis, difficult arbitration between competing water uses needs to be done by the authorities. Procedural rules for such arbitration have to be set up in detail and introduced in the regulations and in contracting agreements with water users. Communication on these rules should be regularly carried out to avoid non-cooperative behaviours during crisis. Simulation of what would happen in case an earthquake or an accident occurs should be carried out with the relevant actors in charge of civil security, water and energy supply.

The management of Regional Water Companies reported that, in the long run, to avoid water shortage and water quality related risks, that it would be preferable to have independent secure access to well protected water resources of ensured good quality. The management suggested that it would be necessary to consider an increased diversification of good-quality water resources for their raw water (concept of emergency resources).


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III.3. ENERGY AND WATER

The water sector and the energy sector are highly interrelated. The yearly contracts between the IL Canal Company and the KEK Company have an important influence on the functioning of the IL water system.

- The water from Gazivoda dam flows through turbines producing hydro-electricity that is sold to KEK, which currently provides most of the IL Companys revenues. The revenues of irrigation are very low in comparison.

- The IL Canal Company is paying for pumping water up for the irrigation of the Drenica perimeters. This pumping station could be used for storing water in altitude,

- The existing thermal power plants Kosovo A and B are causing a significant pollution pressure on the Sidnica River and on the groundwater surrounding Prishtina.

- A power cut disrupts pumping for the distribution of water to users including industrial users. Such power cuts create economical losses.

The IL Canal Company KEK water supply contract includes the price at which the Company sells the hydroelectricity. In 2010, the electricity is sold at a flat tariff which does not take into account peak hours.

The following changes of institutional arrangements and of water and electricity price would add further new implications on the use of bulk water:

- the setting up of a private-public partnership involving KEK for running the power plants,

- currently, KEK is importing electricity at a high price. The introduction of a different tariff of purchasing of electricity by KEK depending on the period (peak and low demand) can make storage of water in altitude profitable (pumped storage schemes). The water will be pumped up during the low-tariff period and electricity produced during the high-tariff period. Of course, new installations are needed to benefit from this option, and detail feasibility analysis would be required.

Measures increasing power generation by a smart management of the water which is stored, conveyed or pumped can provide significant socio-economical benefits and reduce import of energy at a high cost during peak demand of electricity. If a double tariff is introduced, increased revenues could be generated for IL Canal Company by optimizing the use of water for energy production.

A strategy was defined for the Energy sector; the main elements of this strategy are the following.


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Figure 8: Bulk water conveyance and hydro-electricity of the Gazivoda reservoir, its buffer reservoir and the

intake of the IL canal

The key policy directions that determine strategic development of the energy sector in Kosovo are: - Security and reliability of energy supply; - Integration in, and cooperation with the energy sectors in the South-East European region; - Using lignite as the major local resource for power generation, at least in mid-term; - Adhering to the EU energy and environmental directives and regulations; - Improving energy efficiency in all energy sectors and end-use sub sectors; - Reducing environmental pollution in general, and air pollution in particular; - Providing a regulatory framework for gradual liberalization privatization of power sector; - Introducing competition in the power sector by attracting a strategic IPP investor; - Recognizing mining and power sector as the main engines of economic development, employment,

and export revenue providers; - Attracting private investments for development of gas and oil interconnection pipelines and local

infrastructure

It should be noted that the decision to build a power plant which does not rely on a relatively high quantity and continuous supply of bulk water would positively affect the water management of the canal and increase the security to other water users in case of emergency. Such generation plant would be more expensive in terms of capital and operating costs, but this cost should be compared to the cost generated to secure a large amount of water for a long time.

The literature concerning risk assessment and recent events in the world shows that there are many externalities which are difficult to monetise, especially in cases of extreme emergency.


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Systemic failures such as power cuts or failure of pumping systems may have a dramatic effect on the wider economy and the public health as well as a lasting impact on investment opportunities.

III.4. INTERNATIONAL CONTEXT

The three following elements should be kept in mind as far as international aspects are concerned:

Serbia plans to increase the power generation through hydroelectricity in the Ibr River Basin. In a long-term perspective, the energy and water demand of towns close to the Gazivoda reservoir may have an influence on the optimal use of its waters,

If conveyance and distribution inefficiency are taken care of (reduction of leakage, operation of gates), additional water of the reservoir would become available for other uses and generate revenues. There will be the possibility of water use without much additional impact downstream,

Under international legislation regarding transboundary watercourses, each riparian country of a watercourse should inform the authorities of the other countries, both upstream and downstream, of its intention to use additional water. Measures are proposed to address this issue,

To avoid any tension, the water management of IL canal gates should ensure that the minimum environmental flow is maintained in the Ibr /Sidnica River.

In the long term, pragmatic cooperation for efficient water allocation would provide socio-economic benefits for all communities in the basin.


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IV. CONCEPTUAL REPRESENTATION OF THE ISSUES

IV.1. SCHEMATIC REPRESENTATION OF THE ISSUES

Figure 9: Key elements for balancing demand and supply in the future

Figure 9 outlines the issue to be addressed:

First, the baseline situation in 2010 has to be described considering:

- the existing water system including the inefficiencies, - the current demand, - the current supply.

The water balance of the different water systems can be assessed and the probability of water shortage if no measures are taken can be estimated.

Second, the future situation can be described by simulation with a model, considering:

- the possible climate change, - the change in the water system and in the water management generated by

structural and non-structural measures, - the future demand, - the future supply.

The water balance and the risk of shortage can be estimated based on these parameters. Several parameters describing climate change impacts, future conditions of the water systems, as well as future water demand can be introduced in a number of scenarios. The resulting water balance can be assessed through a simulation process.


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A modelling tool to simulate the water balance has been selected, namely the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP). The WEAP System model was developed by the SEI (Stockholm Environment Institute) to enable evaluation of planning and management issues associated with water resources development.

It is a user-friendly software that can be used freely by public institutions. A license for two years use has been provided to the Water Department of the Ministry of Environment and Spatial Planning. This model has already been used by the water Department during an ECLO-funded project from 2008 to 2010. The model was set up to assess the water balance and allocation of the Radoniqi reservoir area, located in the Drini River Basin.

The Consultant has set up and used the model for the project zone, that is, the Ibr basin within Kosovo, but including the upstream part in Montenegro, and for a small area in Serbia. The model is used to assess the water balance under baseline and future conditions.

The water balance of the year 2010 has been simulated through a scenario which can be considered as the baseline scenario.

IV.2. USE OF WEAP: A RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT MODELING TOOL

A- WEAP MODEL MAIN FEATURES

The WEAP model can be applied for both municipal and agricultural systems and addresses a wide range of issues including:

- sectoral demand analyses, ecosystem requirements, - stream flow simulation, - water conservation, water rights allocation priorities, - reservoir operation.

It has an economic module with project cost-benefit analyses. It provides a comprehensive, flexible and user-friendly framework for planning and policy analysis (see Figure 10).

Figure 10: WEAP model modules


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The WEAP model has two primary functions (Sieber and River 2004):

a) Simulation of natural hydrological processes (e. g., evapo-transpiration, runoff and infiltration) to enable assessment of the water availability within a catchment.

b) Simulation of anthropogenic activities superimposed on the natural system to influence water resources and their allocation (i. e. consumptive and non-consumptive water).

B- SET UP OF A WEAP MODEL FOR THE IBR RIVER BASIN IN KOSOVO, SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO

The GIS files of the Ibr River Basin were introduced and a scheme of the water system including the reservoir, the river and the canal was designed by SCE/OIEau (see Figure 11).

The main elements influencing the water balance are shown in the WEAP schematic map, including:

- the location of the uptake of water in reservoir and channels for several uses, - the return flow, - the demand points in different areas. The input parameters of the model can be changed easily to simulate the supply/demand situation in the future under several scenarios.

The data corresponding to the supply and demand were entered in the system to simulate the baseline scenario. The data entered are a combination of realistic data (measured or known data) and hypothesis data (based on assumptions). Table 2 shows the data which have been collected and used for the WEAP modelling activity.


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Figure 11: WEAP hydrography and water system architecture of the Ibr Basin (SCE/OIEau 2010)

LEGEND


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Figure 12: WEAP scheme of the Ibr Lepenc canal water conveyance and of Prishtina and Mitrovica regions bulk water supply

LEGEND


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V. SOURCES OF INFORMATION AND DATA LIMITATION Table 2 presents the data source and comments about the data collected. Other sources of information are listed in the bibliography (Annex 1).

Table 2: Data collection records

Data Sources and availability Data quality

General Hydrological and geographical Data

Ibr basin and lake and canals characteristics, Hydrology of Gazivoda dam, optimization of the Gazivoda reservoir

Data collected from Ibr Lepenc Company under the format of book three old Serbian books Good quality

Good quality

Climatic information Precipitation and Temperature

Limited information Data collected from Master plan 1985 Good quality

Good quality up to 1985, uneven quality afterwards

Hydrological data/Water discharge/Water levels/runoff Data collected from Master Plan Good quality

Hydrogeological data Monthly abstraction of wells/Depth for the ground water aquifer/characteristic of the ground water

Limited data from Regional Water Supply Company Prishtina, report from Prishtina water supply project

Quality not well known

Water demand/water consumption users (consumption of water for agriculture/irrigation/industry)

Data collected from Ibr Lepenc Company Data estimated not measured, quality uneven

Water consumption by inhabitants Under collection from Regional Water Supply Company Pristine

Not well known, many Estimates and assumptions

Georeferenced data

Delineation of basins, sub-basins and land users Data collected from Water Department Difficulty linked to the several projections used,

some errors exist

Land use information Maps and data on Land use base on Corine Lancover classification

The land use has changed compared to the land use existing when the data were collected

Water bodies characterisation and pressure

Surface water bodies delineation Data collected from Water Department: Delineation started during the ECLO Drini project

Good quality

Point sources of pollution Data collected from Water Department UNDP and Mitrovica Quality uneven and geographical


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Data Sources and availability Data quality

University (on-going KEPA study not collected) localization not accurate

Water uses Prishtina and Mitrovica Regional Company, Ibr Lepenc canal company, Institute of Statistic of Kosovo

Data estimated from several information, not very accurate

Economic data

General aspects on Kosovo economy, Municipalities

WB reports Statistical data on population growth and on household revenues, survey from the statistical institute. OSCE website Municipalities profile, Ministry of Agriculture Forest and Rural Development

Accuracy and of date of data not always well known,

Costs of agriculture production Agriculture economic information Information collected during Farmer and specialist visit, WB documentation

General useful information but not always accurate

Economic data on industrial and Mining sectors in Ibr Lepenc River basin

Mostly from Internet, ICMM Quality not well known

Economic data on water production and use Water regulatory office reports Quality check through ECLO project but RWC have difficulties to collect accurate data

Climate change

Study on climate change, World Bank study, University study on climate changes on European lakes

Important uncertainties but the best of available information


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The information collected for the WEAP model includes the GIS files for rivers, reservoirs, villages and cities, river basins as well as sub-basins contours and characteristics, land cover, location of hydrometric stations, data on the hydrology (data series for rain distribution, temperature, runoff, water levels and river flows), hydrogeology, geological layers, stratigraphy and permeability.

This information was collected mainly from the Institute for Hydrometeorology of Kosovo (IHMK) and the Independent Commission for Mines and Minerals (ICMM) as well as from former ECLO Project on the Drini River Basin.

Information regarding pressure on the water bodies was collected mainly from the Water Dep

water security kosovo

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