water supply demand strategy - north east water · water supply demand strategy 2012 ii executive...
TRANSCRIPT
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Table of Contents
Glossary ................................................................................................................................................................... i
Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................ ii
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 Scope ........................................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2 Objectives of the WSDS ............................................................................................................................ 1
1.3 Overview of North East Water ................................................................................................................. 2
1.4 Overview of systems and supply sources ................................................................................................. 3
1.5 Strategy documentation ........................................................................................................................... 4
1.6 Water supply planning context ................................................................................................................ 5
1.7 Principles for WSDS development ............................................................................................................ 5
1.8 WSDS development process ..................................................................................................................... 6
2 Challenges we face ............................................................................................................................................ 8
2.1 Dealing with uncertainty .......................................................................................................................... 8
2.2 Experience of drought and Floods ............................................................................................................ 8
2.3 Sources of uncertainty ............................................................................................................................ 10
2.4 Sources of supply uncertainty ................................................................................................................ 11
2.5 Sources of demand uncertainty ............................................................................................................. 16
2.6 Approaches to decision-making under uncertainty ............................................................................... 20
2.7 Lessons from recent experience and achievements .............................................................................. 21
3 Methodology for analysing the supply and demand balance ......................................................................... 29
3.2 Determining Levels of Service ................................................................................................................ 30
3.3 Forecasting demand ............................................................................................................................... 31
3.4 Forecasting supply .................................................................................................................................. 37
4 Decision-making framework for guiding action .............................................................................................. 39
4.1 Water supply planning............................................................................................................................ 39
4.2 Identifying potential need for action ...................................................................................................... 41
4.3 Possible options ...................................................................................................................................... 44
5 Ensuring reliability of supply ........................................................................................................................... 50
5.1 Provision of Minimum and Agreed Level of Service ............................................................................... 50
5.2 Approaches to provide Agreed Levels of Service ................................................................................... 52
5.3 Evaluation of options .............................................................................................................................. 52
5.4 Delivery system performance ................................................................................................................. 53
5.5 Demand management ............................................................................................................................ 54
5.6 One Resource .......................................................................................................................................... 56
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
5.7 Using Water Markets .............................................................................................................................. 58
5.8 Secure Water Source .............................................................................................................................. 63
6 Implementing the Strategy ............................................................................................................................. 66
7 Stakeholder engagement ................................................................................................................................ 70
8 References ...................................................................................................................................................... 71
List of Figures
Figure 1: North East Water’s area of operation ..................................................................................................... 2
Figure 2: Overview of WSDS documentation ......................................................................................................... 4
Figure 3: Water Supply Planning Framework in north east Victoria ...................................................................... 5
Figure 4: Overview of process to develop WSDS .................................................................................................... 7
Figure 5: Long-term annual rainfall at Beechworth (station 082002) .................................................................... 9
Figure 6: Long-term annual inflow to Lake Buffalo ................................................................................................ 9
Figure 7: Climate change impacts on runoff for the Upper Murray river basin ................................................... 13
Figure 8: North East Water bushfire affected water supply catchments ............................................................. 14
Figure 9: Change in catchment runoff after bushfire ........................................................................................... 15
Figure 10: Example historical per connection demand (Wodonga metered demand) ........................................ 17
Figure 11: Example historical per connection demand (Wodonga estimated unrestricted demand) ................. 18
Figure 12: Example historical trend in commercial/industrial demand (Wodonga) ............................................ 19
Figure 13: Distribution of North East Water customer connections by type ....................................................... 29
Figure 14: Distribution of North East Water customer demand consumption by type ....................................... 29
Figure 15: Typical factors influencing urban water demand (from Turner et al. 2010) ....................................... 32
Figure 16: Example demand regression fitted to treated water data (Benalla) ................................................... 33
Figure 17: Revised arrangements for outdoor watering (VicWater, 2011) .......................................................... 35
Figure 18: Example supply projection (Benalla) ................................................................................................... 38
Figure 19: North East Water’s decision making framework for action ................................................................ 40
Figure 20: Yield and demand over the planning horizon (example only) ............................................................. 41
Figure 21: Reliability and demand over the planning horizon (example only) ..................................................... 42
Figure 22: North East Water’s One Resource framework ..................................................................................... 48
Figure 23: Populated One Resource framework for a large community on the Murray System ......................... 49
Figure 24: Forecast Supply-Demand Balance with Augmentation (Corryong system) ......................................... 51
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
List of Tables
Table 1: Overview Water Supply System Plans and Townships Serviced ............................................................... 3
Table 2: Shifts in seasonal rainfall during the Millennium Drought at Beechworth ............................................. 10
Table 3: Period of water resource assessment to account for long-term climate variability ............................... 11
Table 4: Change in climate under future climate change scenarios relative to historical conditions .................. 12
Table 5: Climate under “return to dry” climate change scenario ......................................................................... 12
Table 6: Summary of supply system changes under Water Plan 2007 and associated outcomes ....................... 23
Table 7: Summary of Education Activities Recently Completed (2007/08 to 2010/11) ....................................... 25
Table 8: Summary of Studies to support Supply Augmentations ......................................................................... 27
Table 9 Headworks and distribution water losses adopted for purposes of WSDS ............................................. 34
Table 10: Forecast water savings (reduction in losses) in headworks and distribution ....................................... 36
Table 11: Classification of supply enhancement and demand reduction initiatives ............................................ 45
Table 12: Success of demand reduction initiatives to date compared with 2007 ................................................ 45
Table 13: Potential “bounce back” of Residential Demands for Scenario Planning compared with 2007 ........... 46
Table 14: Provision of Minimum and Agreed Level of Service ............................................................................. 51
Table 15: Summary of Delivery System Performance Options ............................................................................. 53
Table 16: Summary of Demand Management Options ........................................................................................ 55
Table 17: Summary of One Resource Options ...................................................................................................... 57
Table 18: Common Forms of Entitlement to Water used in Victoria ................................................................... 59
Table 19: Flexibility to Trade Water ..................................................................................................................... 60
Table 20: Summary of Using Water Markets Options .......................................................................................... 61
Table 21: Summary of Secure Water Source Options .......................................................................................... 63
Table 22: Application/Priority of options to meet the Levels of Service .............................................................. 67
Table 23: Region-wide volumetric summary of supply, demand and opportunities to achieve a balance .......... 69
Appendices
Appendix 1: Project Team and Water Plan 3 Reference Group
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
i
Glossary
Term Description
$M Million dollars – 1,000,000 dollars.
Average Annual Demand The water demand for a system varies depending on the climatic conditions for any given year. The average annual demand is the amount of water used in a year under average conditions. The required demand can vary by as much as ±20%.
Bounce back The possibility that residential usage may demonstrate a “bounce back” in demand if wetter conditions persist and some users revert to their water use behaviour from prior to the 2006/07.
Bulk Entitlement (BE) The right to water held by water and other authorities defined in the Water Act 1989. The BE defines the amount of water that an authority is entitled to from a river or storage, and may include the rate at which it may be taken and other conditions.
CIV Commercial, Industrial and Vacant land customers.
DSE Department of Sustainability and Environment.
ESC Essential Services Commission.
EWR Environmental Water Reserve – water set aside to meet environmental water requirements defined in the Water Act 1989.
ML Megalitre (1 million litres).
Non Revenue Water (NRW)
Non revenue water is defined as the difference between the amount of water diverted from the source and the amount of water delivered to our customers.
Potable Suitable for drinking.
Qualification of Rights The Minister for Water may grant a temporary qualification of rights to water in extreme circumstances to ensure critical water needs are met. For example, granting North East Water access to water on the Murray System when no allocation is available.
Reclaimed water Effluent from wastewater treatment plants that is fit for the substitution of potable water, where appropriate (e.g. irrigation of public open space areas).
Regulated supply A surface water source that has an on-stream storage of sufficient size to regulate the flow of water to downstream customers and even out variation in catchment runoff from year to year. The most notable example locally is the Murray River that has Lake Hume and Dartmouth Dam.
Return flow credits Reclaimed water discharged to stream that can be used to credit extraction downstream, or potentially traded to another raw water customer.
Unregulated supply A surface water source without an on-stream storage of sufficient size to regulate the flow of water to downstream customers. Supply in these systems is dependent on seasonal catchment runoff. Water availability is typically lowest in summer when demand is highest.
Unrestricted demand Average annual demand for water without any restrictions.
Water Plan North East Water’s five year plan (approved by the Essential Services Commission) containing its approved pricing for services and capital works program.
WSDS Water Supply Demand Strategy.
WTP Water treatment plant.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
ii
Executive Summary
North East Water is a regional urban water corporation that provides water and wastewater services to a
population of approximately 115,000 across north east Victoria.
North East Water’s Water Supply Demand Strategy (WSDS) seeks to identify the best mix of measures to
maintain a balance between the demand for water in urban supply systems and available supply now and into
the future. The WSDS incorporates the principles of scenario-based planning, considering the actions needed
to meet increased demand for water arising from population and industry growth, together with the possible
effects of climate change and other environmental factors. This document is our five-yearly revision of the
strategy, as required under our Statement of Obligations. This strategy will inform supply augmentation and
capital investment requirements for consideration in North East Water’s next Water Plan.
In the context of this WSDS, level of service refers to the long-term security of supply of a water supply system.
Security of supply is measured by the frequency, severity and/or duration of water restrictions, as well as the
ability to maintain a minimum supply during drought. Security of supply is often used interchangeably with
the term reliability of supply, which has an equivalent meaning in this WSDS. There are two aspects to North
East Water’s level of service; an agreed level of service and minimum level of service.
North East Water’s levels of service have been developed in consultation with the community. North East
Water’s agreed level of service reflects community expectations about the environmentally, socially and
economically responsible use of water, and its minimum level of service reflects the appropriate use of water
in times of drought or water shortage. The agreed level of service is often limited by the nature of the supply
system and increasing level of service can impact on water prices.
North East Water’s agreed level of service provides a 90% likelihood that customers will not be asked to
reduce water consumption in any given year, based on forecast community needs for water over the 50 year
planning horizon.
North East Water’s minimum level of service meets the demand for unrestrictable in-house and
commercial/industrial use. This component of demand is what would be provided to customers under Stage 4
restrictions, as outlined on our website (www.newater.com.au).
North East Water has the capacity to maintain the minimum level of service to all of its customers
(approximately 6,500 ML/yr) under anticipated drought conditions, and is planning to provide the agreed level
of service to all of its customers subject to the integration of the proposed 520 ML storage into Bright water
supply system and augmenting Goorambat’s supply (subject to inclusion in Water Plan 3).
North East Water’s customers have benefited from considerable investment in augmenting supplies and
significant reduction in customer demand across the region in recent years. On average, the demand for water
has reduced by approximately one third across the region, which has significantly improved supply reliability
(level of service) for many systems across the region, and has deferred the need for augmentation in many
towns such as Benalla.
Customer water savings have been complemented by North East Water improving the efficiency of its water
supply systems, where water losses in headworks and distribution have reduced by one third in recent years.
Further potential savings have been identified that can defer supply augmentations, such as Corryong water
supply system where projected annual savings of approximately 30 ML/yr could defer any augmentation by
approximately 20 years.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
iii
The Victorian water market is a very effective method for balancing supply and demand in North East Water’s
communities that are supplied by the regulated River Murray system. The development and implementation
of water management tools such as annual carryover and wastewater return flow credits have reduced the
additional water entitlement required for River Murray supplied systems down to 113 ML over the next
50 years. North East Water will continue to use water markets to cater for future growth and to manage the
annual variation in demand during times of drought or water shortage and operate its urban water trading
scheme should the need arise again.
To ensure North East Water remains prepared, augmentation requirements have also be identified for
communities with a reliability of supply between 90% and 95%. Supply augmentation investigations will be
underpinned by North East Water’s One Resource approach, which takes a holistic approach to water resource
management and has also been used to develop the WSDS Alternative Water Atlas. The One Resource
approach reflects a strategic goal of the Corporation to deliver sustainable water services that meet the
outcomes sought by customers, that is, delivering water that is fit-for-purpose.
North East Water’s water supply systems have been tested across a spectrum of climatic conditions in recent
years. This experience has improved the robustness of North East Water’s drought response planning,
demonstrated the benefits of diversified supplies and highlighted the need for an Annual Water Security
Outlook tool. The Annual Water Security Outlook tool has been developed as part of this WSDS and will be
used to review the supply demand balance in November each year, informing an annual re-evaluation of short
and long term needs and determine whether there is a need to defer or accelerate planned activities if
conditions change from what is anticipated.
North East Water’s WSDS has been developed in consultation with the community and its Board. This included
working with North East Water’s Water Plan 3 Reference Group throughout the strategy’s development,
engaging with local councils, presentations to community groups, such as the Benalla Rotary Club, and seeking
feedback from the general public on the draft strategy. The final WSDS was issued to the Honourable Peter
Walsh MP, Minister for Water, for noting in March 2012.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 1
1 Introduction
North East Water’s Water Supply Demand Strategy (WSDS) seeks to identify the best mix of measures to
maintain a balance between the demand for water and available supply in urban supply systems now and into
the future. The WSDS:
Has a 50 year timeframe.
Considers the total water cycle, consistent with the principles of integrated urban water management
and North East Water’s One Resource approach.
Balances social, environmental and economic costs and benefits.
Take account of the risks and uncertainty associated with population growth and climate variability.
Is reviewed on a five-yearly basis in accordance with any guidelines issued by the Department of
Sustainability and Environment.
1.1 Scope
The WSDS provides strategic direction for the planning and management of water services at the whole of
business level and for each individual system. The scope of the WSDS is confined to communities that North
East Water currently provides water services. Although it does not provide direction for unserviced areas
(e.g. small towns without a reticulated potable water service), these opportunities are being considered by
North East Water through its Strategic Initiative to Work with unserviced communities to explore
fit-for-purpose water solutions.
1.2 Objectives of the WSDS
The objectives of the WSDS are to facilitate efficient and effective urban water planning and investment across
north east Victoria, to:
Ensure safe, secure, reliable and affordable water supplies that meet society’s needs.
Enable customers to have access to desired water products and services, and to choose to use water
for activities they value highly.
Encourage the use of all water resources, such as rainwater, stormwater and reclaimed water, in ways
that are efficient and fit-for-purpose, ensuring that public and environmental health are protected.
Encourage water projects to also enhance the liveability, productivity, prosperity and environment of
our cities and towns – wherever possible.
Ensure that water needs of environmental assets are transparently considered and delivered.
Ensure that water planning is subject to a transparent and rigorous decision-making process, with
clear roles and responsibilities and accountabilities, which can adapt to the changing environment.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 2
1.3 Overview of North East Water
North East Water is a regional urban water corporation that:
Provides water and wastewater services to an estimated population of 115,000 people across north
east Victoria, as shown in Figure 1.
Provides water services to 39 communities and nearly 46,000 connections.
Produces up to 18,000 ML/yr of drinking water through 21 water treatment plants.
Provides wastewater services to 24 communities and nearly 40,000 connections.
Produces approximately 9,000 ML/yr of reclaimed water through 19 wastewater treatment plants.
Figure 1: North East Water’s area of operation
North East Water sources water from various locations. Diversion of water from the River Murray supports a
high portion of North East Water’s customers. The Murray system includes the major water supply reservoirs
of Lake Hume and Lake Dartmouth, which also provide water supply to towns, rural water users and the
environment in Victoria, New South Wales and South Australia. Bulk water supply to North East Water in the
Lower Ovens and King river valleys is sourced from Lake Buffalo and Lake William Hovell, which are managed
by Goulburn-Murray Water who also supplies rural water users from the same source. Supply systems on the
Kiewa River are influenced by hydropower generation on the Upper Kiewa River, which is managed by AGL.
Other supply systems include large raw water reservoirs managed by North East Water, extraction from run of
the river systems and groundwater supply systems.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 3
1.4 Overview of systems and supply sources
The WSDS is complemented by system plans for each of the water supply systems. An overview of the
21 water supply system plans, respective townships serviced and average annual demand is shown in Table 1.
Table 1: Overview Water Supply System Plans and Townships Serviced
Water Source System Plan Township Serviced Average Annual Demand (ML/yr)
Broken Benalla Benalla 1,284
Groundwater Goorambat Goorambat 19
Kiewa
Beechworth Beechworth 396
Mount Beauty
Mount Beauty
324 Tawonga
Tawonga South
Yackandandah Yackandandah 111
King
Moyhu Moyhu 27
Oxley Oxley 60
Whitfield Whitfield 14
Mitta Mitta Dartmouth Dartmouth 31
Eskdale Eskdale 12
Murray
Bellbridge Bellbridge 56
Tallangatta Tallangatta 159
Wahgunyah/ Rutherglen
Wahgunyah 566
Rutherglen
Wodonga
Wodonga
5,245
Baranduda
Bonegilla/Ebden
Kiewa
Tangambalanga
Barnawartha 75
Chiltern 138
Springhurst 18
Yarrawonga
Yarrawonga
1,214 Tungamah
St James
Devenish
Bundalong 18
Ovens
Bright
Bright
586 Porepunkah
Wandiligong
Harrietville Harrietville 56
Myrtleford Myrtleford 560
Wangaratta Wangaratta 3,066
Glenrowan 59
Upper Murray Corryong
Corryong 200
Cudgewa
Walwa Walwa 21
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 4
Table 1 also shows the source of water supply for each of the systems. Further details, such as Bulk
Entitlements, storage information, key water treatment and delivery infrastructure and general comments on
waterway health are included in the respective system plan.
Many systems use alternative water sources (e.g. reclaimed water or stormwater) to achieve outcomes
traditionally sought by potable water. This WSDS introduces the Alternative Water Atlas, which provides an
overview of alternative water use in the region. The Alternative Water Atlas is discussed in Section 4.3.4 and
specific detail of current and potential alternative water use is provided in each of the respective system plans.
1.5 Strategy documentation
Documentation prepared as part of WSDS development includes a summary WSDS document, a WSDS
document (this document), and water system plans for each of the 21 specific water systems which North East
Water is responsible for. An overview of the WSDS documentation structure is shown in Figure 2. This
three-tiered approach allows the reader to access detail in an efficient and easy manner.
Figure 2: Overview of WSDS documentation
- 21 system plans
- System details
- Alternative Water Atlas
- System-specific approaches
- Annual Water Security Outlook
- Detailed WSDS
- Proposed Levels of Service
- Decription of WSDS approach
- Details of strategic approach
- Overview of WSDS
- Proposed Levels of Service
- Overview of strategic approach
Water Supply Demand Strategy - Summary
Water Supply Demand Strategy
Water System Plans
Water System Plans
Water System Plans
Water System Plans
(this document)
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 5
1.6 Water supply planning context
An overview of the water supply planning framework in north east Victoria is represented diagrammatically in
Figure 3. The purpose of this diagram is to demonstrate the link between North East Water’s Corporate Plan,
Water Plan, Strategies and relevant State Government legislation and strategies. It highlights the position of
the Water Supply-Demand Strategy in relation to the broader policy and legislative frameworks.
Figure 3: Water Supply Planning Framework in north east Victoria
1.7 Principles for WSDS development
The WSDS has been developed using the following principles:
Water supply systems are designed to provide a minimum level of service in terms of quantity, quality
and service provision, commensurate with customers’ willingness and ability to pay for that service.
Planning is based on the best available information about current and future water resources.
Planning is scenario based, incorporating uncertainty in supply and demand, and is also integrated
with future economic development and land use planning.
Water is managed on a whole-of-water-cycle basis and the full portfolio of water supply and demand
options should be considered, including fit-for-purpose uses.
All water supply and demand options are assessed on a robust and transparent basis, examining the
social, environmental and economic costs and benefits and taking into account specific water system
characteristics.
Pricing and markets are used to help balance the supply and demand for water, where it is efficient
and feasible to do so.
Plans and strategies can be adapted as necessary to reflect additional information and knowledge as
it comes to hand, as well as changing circumstances.
Value of individual options to the overall supply-demand portfolio recognises supply characteristics
(e.g. reliability and flexibility) as well as how much water they can produce.
Local Government
Act Water Industry
Act
North East Water
Wastewater Strategy
Regional Catchment
Strategy (River Health )
North East Water
Water Supply Demand
Strategy
North East Water
5 year Water Plan
North East Water
Annual Corporate Plan
Northern Region Sustainable Water
Strategy
State Environmental Protection
Policies
Water Act Conservation and
Land Protection
Act
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 6
1.8 WSDS development process
North East Water’s previous WSDS was prepared in 2007. Since that time, North East Water has been tracking
progress against the actions proposed in that strategy, with an update provided each year in its annual report.
The current WSDS is a continuation of this ongoing water resource planning that is being undertaken by North
East Water.
This WSDS has been prepared in accordance with the guidelines issued by the Department of Sustainability
and Environment (DSE, 2011). An overview of the process used to develop the WSDS is shown in Figure 4. In
summary, developing the WSDS involved:
Setting the context for the strategy by identifying lessons from recent experience and the key
challenges likely to be encountered over the next 50 years (Section 2).
Analysing the supply and demand balance, including setting levels of service, forecast demand and
forecast supply (Section 3).
Developing a decision making framework by which to assess whether there is a need for action in
each supply system (Section 4).
Presenting the outcomes of applying that decision making framework with a list of options where
action is likely to be required over the next 50 years (Section 5).
Summarising a timeline for implementation of actions (Section 6).
Describing how North East Water engaged with customers and other stakeholders to finalise the
strategy (Section 7).
The WSDS is a living strategy which will be updated each year through North East Water’s Annual Water
Security Outlooks. A full review and update of the WSDS is scheduled to occur every five years, which gives
North East Water the opportunity to adjust and refine its course of action if conditions change from what can
currently be anticipated.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 8
2 Challenges we face
2.1 Dealing with uncertainty
The WSDS incorporates principles of scenario-based planning and adaptive management as part of a
framework for decision-making under uncertainty. North East Water has to make investment decisions in the
face of considerable uncertainty about the future demand for, and availability of, water. Future demand
depends on population growth and water consumption trends and future water availability predominantly
depends on short and long term climate variability, such as droughts, floods, shift in rainfall patterns and
subsequent stream flow impacts. Scenario-based planning coupled with adaptive management enables water
resource managers to make prudent investment decisions in the face of this uncertainty.
2.2 Experience of drought and Floods
Droughts and floods are a natural feature of the climate in north east Victoria. Major droughts lasting several
years have occurred in the early 1900s (the Federation Drought), from the mid-1930s to mid-1940s (the World
War II Drought) and the Millennium Drought recently experienced from 1997-2009. Severe single year
droughts such as in 1967/68 and 1982/83 have also occurred at regular intervals. These droughts have been
interspersed with floods, such as that recently experienced in February 2011. Other significant flood events
occurred in February 1898, March 1906, April 1959, March 1985 and December 1988.
Drought and floods can also impact upon water quality which can affect the capacity to deliver safe drinking
water. General water quality risks at a system level have been identified in respective Water System Plans.
North East Water’s Drinking Water Quality Risk Management System addresses water quality risks in more
detail.
2.2.1 Millennium drought – from 1997 to 2009
Long-term rainfall behaviour for a representative rainfall gauge (at Beechworth) in North East Water’s supply
area is shown in Figure 5. The figure indicates that north east Victoria has experienced several periods of
below average rainfall in the past, notably in the early 1900s (the Federation drought) and from the mid-1930s
to mid-1940s (the World War II drought).
In North East Water’s supply catchments, as in Victoria in general, the 13 year period from 1997 to 2009 was
particularly dry, with rainfall totals that were very much below average. At Beechworth, located centrally
within the supply region, the average annual rainfall in the 10 year period from 1999 to 2008 was 13% less
than the long-term average. This is similar to the reduction in rainfall during the World War II drought
(1936-1945).
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 9
Figure 5: Long-term annual rainfall at Beechworth (station 082002)
While the magnitude of the reduction in average rainfall over this 13 year period was not greater than in
earlier drought periods, the corresponding impact on streamflows was much worse than previously observed.
Figure 6 shows the long-term streamflow for a representative site (inflow to Lake Buffalo) in north east
Victoria. It can be seen in this figure that despite several years of above average rainfall over the Millenium
Drought, only one year of above average streamflow was recorded over this period. Streamflows over the
period July 1997 to June 2009 were in the range of 30% to 40% below the long term average for the region.
Figure 6: Long-term annual inflow to Lake Buffalo
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
An
nu
al r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Year
Long term average Rolling 10-yr average
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
An
nu
al s
trea
mfl
ow
(GL)
Year
Long term average Rolling 10-yr average
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 10
There are a number of key differences between the Millennium Drought and previous drought events. The
Millennium Drought was characterised by a sharp reduction in Autumn rainfall. Autumn rainfall has been
found to be important across Victoria for wetting catchments to generate streamflow in the following
Winter/Spring period (DSE, 2011). The shift in seasonal rainfall at a representative rainfall gauge in north east
Victoria (at Beechworth) is shown in Table 2, where it can be seen that Autumn rainfall declined by 27%, whilst
rainfall at other times of the year only reduced by 5-9%.
Table 2: Shifts in seasonal rainfall during the Millennium Drought at Beechworth
Season Seasonal average rainfall (mm) Change in season
average (%) 1900/01 to 1996/97 1997/98 to 2009/10
Summer 165 155 -6%
Autumn 227 168 -27%
Winter 345 313 -9%
Spring 260 246 -5%
Total 997 882 -12%
Relative to earlier droughts, the reduction in streamflow in the Millennium Drought was further exacerbated
by higher temperatures across Victoria. Demand for water from other water users upstream of some of North
East Water’s offtakes may have also been higher than in the past, with possible increased interception of
runoff in farm dams and diversion of water for irrigation.
2.2.2 Floods – 2010 & 2011
In contrast to recent trends, the summer of 2010/11 was the wettest in Victoria since records began. Almost
two-thirds of the State received rainfall totals very much above the long-term average in 2010. The wet
conditions experienced in 2010/2011 replenished all of North East Water’s supply systems and resulted in low
demands for water.
Whilst natural climate variability is expected in north east Victoria, it is unclear whether the recent climate
behaviour of shifting from extreme drought to extreme flood is likely to be a permanent feature of our future
climate. Research by the Bureau of Meteorology (2011) suggests that greater rainfall variability is a feature of
recent global climate conditions and is expected to be a signature of greenhouse gas induced climate change.
However that research is not yet able to identify with certainty whether this recent extreme weather
behaviour will continue. North East Water will continue to monitor the outcomes of climate research and
adapt its program as appropriate.
2.3 Sources of uncertainty
There are many sources of uncertainty in any water planning exercise. Some of the major sources of
uncertainty for North East Water include:
Future climate uncertainty and its impact on surface and groundwater availability.
The potential impact of past and future bushfires.
Future population growth rates.
Future customer behaviour.
Input data and model uncertainty.
Each of these potential sources of uncertainty and how North East Water has responded to this uncertainty in
this WSDS are presented below.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 11
2.4 Sources of supply uncertainty
2.4.1 Climate variability
North East Water’s WSDS has taken into account the natural climate variability of the region. Water
availability for each of North East Water’s supply systems has been assessed using long-term water resource
models that cover a range of both drought and flood events, as shown in Table 3. Importantly, the analysis in
this WSDS includes consideration of the Millennium Drought, which fully tested the drought resilience of North
East Water’s supply systems. The only exception to this is for towns in the Kiewa River Basin, because DSE’s
water resource model of this area did not extend to the end of the Millenium Drought. Supply availability for
towns in the Kiewa River Basin has nevertheless still been assessed over several severe droughts.
Table 3: Period of water resource assessment to account for long-term climate variability
Supply system Period of assessment in long-term water resource model
Murray 1895 - 2010
Ovens 1891 – 2009
Kiewa 1965 – 2006
Benalla 1960 – 2009
Corryong 1955 - 2010
2.4.2 Climate change projections
Despite the recent advances that have been made in our understanding of climate science, our climate future
remains uncertain. North East Water has tested the behaviour of its supply systems in this WSDS under a
range of climate change scenarios. This is in accordance with the latest guidance from DSE (2011) on this
issue. Potential future changes to rainfall, evaporation and streamflow assumed for north east Victoria were
sourced from the most recent research available from the South East Australia Climate Initiative (SEACI), which
is a collaborative research initiative between DSE, CSIRO, the Bureau of Meteorology, the Murray Darling Basin
Authority and the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency.
The DSE WSDS Guidelines recommended assessing the "wet", “median” and "dry" climate futures. The
terminology used to describe these possibilities is indicative of their relative position within the range of
available results from the various available Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the same global warming
scenario (known as the A1B scenario):
“Wet” Scenario: where the forecast increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall relative to
baseline are exceeded in 90% of results obtained from the available GCMs.
“Median” Scenario: where the forecast increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall are exceeded
in 50% of results obtained from the available GCMs.
“Dry” Scenario: where the forecast increase in temperature and reduction in rainfall are exceeded in
10% of results obtained from the available GCMs.
The factors applied to evaporation, rainfall and streamflow in this WSDS are shown in Table 4. By way of
example, runoff into streams above North East Water’s offtakes in the Ovens River Basin would be expected to
decrease under climate change by 2-20% by the year 2030 and by 4-38% by the year 2060.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 12
Table 4: Change in climate under future climate change scenarios relative to historical conditions
Climate scenario
Historical 2030
dry
2030
median
2030
wet
2060
dry
2060
median
2060
wet
Ovens River Basin
Change in evaporation 0% +2% +2% +3% +3% +4% +6%
Change in rainfall 0% -7% -6% 0% -14% -11% 0%
Change in streamflow* 0% -20% -13% -2% -38% -23% -4%
Goulburn-Broken River Basin (Benalla)
Change in evaporation 0% +2% +2% +3% +3% +4% +6%
Change in rainfall 0% -7% -5% 0% -14% -11% 0%
Change in streamflow* 0% -21% -12% -3% -38% -21% -5%
Upper Murray River Basin (includes Kiewa catchment)
Change in evaporation 0% +2% +1% +3% +5% +1% +7%
Change in rainfall 0% -8% -5% +1% -16% -10% +2%
Change in streamflow* 0% -19% -9% 0% -36% -16% 0%
*Natural catchment runoff into streams
A further climate scenario was investigated for “return to dry” climate conditions based on a continuation of
conditions during the Millennium Drought from 1997 to 2009. This scenario was developed by scaling the
historical climate and streamflow records such that long-term climate and streamflow conditions displayed the
same characteristics as those during the Millennium Drought. Table 5 shows that pre-1997 streamflow data
would need to be reduced by 34-40% to match the streamflow conditions observed during the Millennium
Drought. Table 5 also indicates that the “return to dry” scenario results in a long term reduction in runoff
equivalent to the 2060 dry climate change predictions. The similarity of the two flow scenarios has meant that
the results obtained for the 2060 dry climate change scenario presented in this WSDS are considered to be
representative of the “return to dry” scenario.
Table 5: Climate under “return to dry” climate change scenario
River Basin Runoff reduction in pre-
1997 period (% of historical runoff)
Change in runoff due to 2060 Dry scenario (%)
Goulburn-Broken -34% -38%
Ovens -40% -38%
Upper Murray -40% -36%
The information from the above climate scenarios is reproduced in Figure 7 to illustrate how streamflow is
assumed to change over time under each climate scenario. This information is shown for the Upper Murray
river basin, however behaviour is assumed to be similar for all of North East Water’s supply catchments.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 13
Figure 7: Climate change impacts on runoff for the Upper Murray river basin
2.4.3 Bushfires
Most of North East Water’s water supply catchments have been subject to bushfires over the last decade, with
major bushfires occurring across the region in 2003, 2006 and 2009. Some areas burnt in the 2003 fires were
re-burnt in either the 2006 or 2009 fires. A map of the extent of these previous fires relative to North East
Water’s supply catchments is shown in Figure 8.
For water supply systems, bushfires have a short-term operational impact at the time of the fire, with
restricted access or damage to water supply assets. This is followed by water quality impacts when ash and
sediment from the fires washes into streams during rainfall events in the first few months or years after the
fires. Such water quality impacts caused North East Water to adjust some of its water treatment practices, for
instance by temporarily not diverting water during the first flush of a catchment after rainfall commences.
The effect of the bushfires most relevant to this long-term water plan is the anticipated reduction in
streamflow in North East Water’s catchments over the coming decades. This is caused by greater uptake of
water by plants as they regrow after the fires. This effect is shown in Figure 9, where it can be seen that runoff
into streams increases in the first few years immediately after a bushfire, because the vegetation that normally
intercepts rainfall has been destroyed. Runoff into streams then decreases as plants that were burnt in the
fire start to re-grow vigorously. The maximum reduction in streamflow typically occurs around 2-3 decades
after a fire, depending on various factors such as the fire intensity, vegetation age, plant species and rainfall
conditions.
-40%
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
Ch
ange
in m
ean
an
nu
al r
un
off
(%
)
Year
Wet
Median
Dry
Return to dry
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 14
Figure 8: North East Water bushfire affected water supply catchments
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 15
A preliminary analysis of the effects of bushfires on runoff into streams in north east Victoria was undertaken
in a study for DSE (SKM, 2009). This study showed that the reduction in streamflow arising from the plant
regrowth after the fires was expected to peak by around 2021 to 2026. The anticipated reduction in mean
annual flow ranged from a negligible change (e.g. for the King River) to a peak reduction of 10% of pre-fire
mean annual streamflow in the catchment upstream of Dartmouth Dam. The Ovens, Kiewa and Upper Murray
River catchments were estimated to experience a peak reduction in streamflow of around 5-6% of pre-fire
mean annual flows.
The water supply systems considered most likely to be affected by these anticipated future reductions in
streamflow are Beechworth, Yackandandah, Bright, Harrietville, Myrtleford, Wangaratta and Corryong.
There are many factors which could influence whether the anticipated impact is actually realised in the future.
If North East Water’s supply catchments were to burn again, as many of them have already, then the process
of regrowth restarts and the time to reach the peak reduction in streamflow would be delayed beyond the
mid-2020s. Equally, if the years of peak water uptake by plants correspond to wet climate years, then the
effect of the additional water use by plants is unlikely to be noticed at North East Water’s offtakes. There are
many input data and modelling uncertainties in the broadscale assessment undertaken to date, so advice from
DSE (2011) is to defer specific actions until the next WSDS when more information is known about the likely
long-term catchment response to the fires. North East Water will keep a watching brief on further
developments by DSE in this area, which has the potential to affect water supply availability across the State
and not just to North East Water.
Figure 9: Change in catchment runoff after bushfire
Increase in runoff
Decrease in runoff
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 16
2.4.4 Groundwater yield
Groundwater is currently used by North East Water to supply Goorambat. It is also used as a drought response
measure at several other towns. The availability of groundwater is reasonably well known in strictly managed
Groundwater Management Areas and Water Supply Protection Areas, but less well known in Unincorporated
Areas that are not actively managed.
The future availability of groundwater under climate change is uncertain. It is known from the Millennium
Drought that groundwater supplies are generally more reliable than surface water supplies in extreme
drought. However under prolonged dry conditions, rainfall recharge to groundwater aquifers reduces at the
same time as the volume of water extracted from those aquifers increases.
For this WSDS, North East Water has proposed further investigations and monitoring at Goorambat to better
understand some of the uncertainties associated with groundwater supply to the town. At other towns
(e.g. Wangaratta), North East Water has assumed that groundwater would provide a reliable supply during
drought where previous technical investigations have indicated that this is the case. This would be subject to
any management rules imposed on extraction from groundwater bores by the licensing authority Goulburn-
Murray Water.
2.4.5 Input data and model uncertainty
The analysis in this WSDS relies on various input datasets and water resource models. North East Water has
utilised the most recently available data for this WSDS.
The water resource models used in this study were developed at various times by the DSE, Goulburn-Murray
Water and North East Water and are deemed to be fit for purpose for application in long term water
management planning. Some of these models have previously been independently audited for their use in
Murray-Darling Basin Cap compliance assessments, the Murray-Darling Basin Sustainable Yields study and the
Guide to the Basin Plan (Podger et al., 2010 and Van Dijk et al., 2008). In some cases no suitable water
resource model was available. This was the case for Dartmouth, Walwa and Goorambat. In these instances,
assessments of water supply availability were made on the basis of how these supply systems behaved during
the Millenium Drought, which was the worst drought on record for most of North East Water’s supply region.
2.5 Sources of demand uncertainty
2.5.1 Population growth
Uncertainty about population projections contributes to the uncertainty in urban water demand projections.
Therefore, they are an important input to the development of urban water demand projections.
Population projections are subject to uncertainty since they are dependent on assumptions about migration
rates, birth rates, mortality rates and other demographic, economic and social trends that will affect the
growth and redistribution of population on a regional basis.
Victoria in Future (VIF) 2008 (DPCD, 2011) has been used as a basis for forecasting population growth rates,
with consideration given to local knowledge, growth trends and other relevant information. The uncertainty
of population forecasting in regional areas is increased due to:
The finest scale VIF projections being on a municipality scale, which may comprise multiple towns
with varying growth rates.
Municipal scale VIF projections only extending to 2026, resulting in the Victorian regional growth rate
being applied.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 17
The risk associated with population growth uncertainty is offset by relatively modest and generally stable
growth rates in north east Victoria, with the exception of Yarrawonga and Bundalong where higher than
regional average growth rates have been experienced over the recent census period. Feedback was sought
from local councils on population forecasts to reduce the uncertainty risk. The influence of tourism on growth
in these towns also contributes to the uncertainty in forecasting growth in these towns.
2.5.2 Residential water consumption trends
Residential water demand levels fluctuate from year to year in response to climate variability and underlying
trends in water use behaviour and population growth. The WSDS has established a baseline demand that
represents current water use behaviour. The historic residential water consumption for a representative
supply system (Wodonga) is shown in Figure 10 to illustrate how residential demand varies from year to year.
It can be seen in this figure that metered water consumption in the last three years has been considerably
lower than prior years, however some of this data is affected by severe water restrictions, which can distort
any trend in water use.
Figure 10: Example historical per connection demand (Wodonga metered demand)
Demand levels were standardised to account for climate variability and the impacts of restrictions. In the
example shown in Figure 11 for Wodonga, it can be seen how per connection demand has been steadily
declining since 2004/05. It is estimated that long-term average residential per connection demand has
decreased by around one third from 2004/05 to 2009/10. This trend is of a similar magnitude across all towns
in North East Water’s region.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Re
sid
en
tial
co
nsu
mp
tio
n p
er
con
ne
ctio
n (
kL/y
r)
Year
Years of significant water restriction across North East Victoria
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 18
Figure 11: Example historical per connection demand (Wodonga estimated unrestricted demand)
With 2010/11 being much wetter than average, it is anticipated for the purposes of this WSDS that this
reduction in demand trend will not persist past 2009/10 as the immediate urgency of saving water diminishes.
The baseline level of residential demand is hence taken in the WSDS as being the year 2009/10 levels of
residential water usage.
There exists however the possibility that residential usage may demonstrate a “bounce back” in demand if
wetter conditions persist and some users revert to their water use behaviour from prior to the 2006/07
drought. The capability of the supply systems to cater for this “bounce back” situation has been addressed in
this strategy through a sensitivity analysis of supply system behaviour at the 2007/08 level of demand. This
assumes that at least some of the savings in residential water use since 2006/07 will be permanent. On
average across the system, this potential future “bounce back” represents an increase in demand of
approximately 25% over 2009/10 levels.
2.5.3 Commercial and industrial consumption
Commercial and industrial consumers currently account for around one third of North East Water’s total
demand for water. This demand has reduced significantly in recent years. Across the North East Water supply
region, commercial and industrial annual water demand has reduced from 5.8 GL to 4.1 GL between 2006/07
and 2010/11. This is due to a combination of large water users either no longer continuing their businesses in
north east Victoria, switching to North East Water’s recycled water supply, or improving their water usage
efficiency.
A typical illustration of the trend in commercial and industrial demand over the last 14 years is provided for
Wodonga in Figure 12. This figure shows that commercial/industrial demand fluctuated between
2,000-2,500 ML/yr in most years up to 2006/07. After the severe drought in this year, commercial/industrial
demand dropped to less than 2,000 ML/yr.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Re
sid
en
tial
co
nsu
mp
tio
n p
er
con
ne
ctio
n (k
L/yr
)
Year
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 19
Figure 12: Example historical trend in commercial/industrial demand (Wodonga)
For most supply systems, industrial, commercial (and vacant land) demand was assumed to be equal to the
metered consumption in 2010/11 for each customer group. However specific allowance has been made in this
WSDS for potential large industrial water customers that may be connected in the near future. Additional
demands have been included in the estimate of baseline demand for their respective towns.
2.5.4 Environmental requirements
The environmental water reserve (EWR) is the water set aside by under the Water Act to meet environmental
water requirements. It includes:
Statutory environmental entitlements (such as a volume of water held in storage for the
environment).
Conditions on bulk entitlements, licences and permits (such as passing flows below a storage).
The establishment of limits to diversions (such as permissible consumptive volumes and the Murray-
Darling Basin Cap).
North East Water contributes to this EWR through its management of minimum passing flows at each of its
water supply offtakes. North East Water is required to report its compliance with these minimum passing
flows to DSE on an annual basis as a legal obligation under our bulk entitlements. This WSDS assumes that the
passing flows in North East Water’s bulk entitlements will continue to be provided for the environment into
the future. Management of passing flows for the environment below the major on-stream storages on the
Murray, Ovens/King and Kiewa Rivers are managed by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority, Goulburn-Murray
Water and AGL respectively.
Regional River Health Strategies have been developed for the Goulburn-Broken and North East Regions to
provide broad level strategic direction for the future management of waterways in north east Victoria. In the
North East Region, the majority of rivers were classified as being in moderate to good condition, with less than
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (M
L/yr
)
Year
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 20
15% of rivers (by river length) considered to be in poor or very poor condition (NECMA, 2006). In the Broken
River catchment in the Goulburn-Broken Region, 49% of rivers (by river length) were considered to be in poor
or very poor condition (GBCMA, 2005). Each river health strategy identifies river reaches across the region
which are high value for environmental, social or economic reasons. Each strategy also outlines a significant
investment program to maintain or enhance these values. North East Water has been cognisant of these
actions by the regional catchment management authorities to improve river health when examining any future
supply enhancement options. Water savings achieved by North East Water and its customers contribute to
river health outcomes across the region. Regional River Health Strategies are due to be revised in 2011/12,
which may or may not see changes in investment priorities for rivers in the region.
River and streamflow from north east Victoria contribute to river health along the length of the River Murray.
The current volume of water for key ecological assets along the River Murray is widely regarded as inadequate,
as outlined in the Guide to the Basin Plan (MDBA, 2010). Water recovery for the River Murray environment
has occurred to date through initiatives such as the Living Murray program and the buy-back of entitlements
by the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder. Similarly, a range of water recovery actions were
proposed in DSE’s Northern Region Sustainable Water Strategy (DSE, 2009) to recover water for the
environment, including the establishment of the Victorian Environmental Water Holder which occurred in
2011. These programs have not affected North East Water’s operations to date and are not expected to affect
operations in the future.
The largest policy uncertainty for North East Water with respect to environmental flow requirements was the
proposed Basin Plan. At the time of preparing the draft WSDS, only the Guide to the Basin Plan was available,
and the draft plan had not yet been released. However, the Proposed Basin Plan (MDBA, 2011) was released
prior to the WSDS being finalised. In contrast to the Guide to the Proposed Basin Plan (MDBA, 2010), the
Proposed Basin Plan (MDBA, 2011) does not identify specific changes to surface water or groundwater
availability in the north east region of Victoria. If approved, the Plan will come into effect in 2019, with a
review of sustainable diversion limits in 2015. This timeframe provides North East Water with a lead time to
adjust to any proposed changes in environmental flows.
2.6 Approaches to decision-making under uncertainty
2.6.1 Scenario planning
The discussion in the previous section of this WSDS highlighted the numerous uncertainties which could affect
future demand and/or water availability in north east Victoria. Based on the advice in DSE’s WSDS guidelines
(DSE, 2010), North East Water has undertaken a combination of scenario planning and adaptive management
to address these uncertainties.
North East Water adopted a baseline demand and supply scenario over the next 50 years using:
Victoria in Future population projections for residential population growth.
Expected changes in industrial/commercial demand in individual supply systems.
Median climate change conditions.
The demand and supply projection under these conditions forms the baseline scenario for North East Water’s
assessment of the future supply and demand balance.
Conditions may however be different to those adopted in the baseline scenario. To account for this, North
East Water has also quantified the supply and demand balance under alternative climate change and demand
scenarios, as well as assessing the effectiveness of actions proposed under the WSDS under these alternative
conditions. This enables North East Water to assess how sensitive its current supply system is to future
uncertainties, along with how robust its proposed solutions are to future changes in demand and supply. For
example, if a proposed action needed to be brought forward under population growth conditions that were
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 21
higher than the assumed baseline, then North East Water has checked the lead time for the preferred action
to ensure that it can still be implemented in time. Similarly, actions to secure more water from one source
may be more resilient to climate change than from another source. This is evident if there are significant
changes in the anticipated increase in supply available from an option under dry or wet climate change
conditions versus median climate change conditions. This measure of robustness is taken into account when
deciding on a final set of actions in the strategy.
2.6.2 Adaptive management
Adaptive management is a systematic process of continually improving management policies and practices by
learning from management actions and using that learning to improve the next stage of management (Holling,
1978). Adaptive management is required in water planning because our knowledge of future conditions is
uncertain. This includes changes to natural systems, the regulatory environment in which North East Water
operates, and shifts in community preferences and behaviour over time.
North East Water uses an adaptive management approach for its water planning. This WSDS recommends
actions to collect further information in supply systems where supply availability is uncertain. This defers
potentially costly or unnecessary infrastructure investments until more is known about likely future supply
system conditions. DSE has recommended this approach in response to potential changes in supply from past
bushfires, as discussed in Section 2.4.3. Reductions in per capita water use, discussed previously in Section
2.5.2, have also highlighted that long-term actions proposed in the previous WSDS may be deferred or no
longer be required in some supply systems because of this change in customer behaviour.
Being ready for these changes in conditions is important. North East Water is committed to progressing its
program of investigations and design outlined in this WSDS so that demand reduction and supply
enhancement measures are ready to implement if future conditions change. Equally, North East Water will
defer large capital expenditure where small improvements in knowledge over time could have a large bearing
on the timing and magnitude of that expenditure.
2.7 Lessons from recent experience and achievements
North East Water’s water supply systems have been tested by the entire spectrum of climatic conditions since
implementing its first WSDS in 2007, which has included one of the driest and wettest years on record. This
experience allowed North East Water to test previous assumptions and as a result the corporation has a higher
level of certainty around appropriate drought response trigger levels and actions.
North East Water’s lessons from recent experience and achievements can be grouped into the following six
themes, which are discussed in the following sub-sections:
1. Drought response.
2. Supply augmentation.
3. System water savings.
4. Demand reduction and management.
5. Use of water markets.
6. Further studies.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 22
2.7.1 Drought response
North East Water’s Drought Response Plan (2006) was used extensively in the preceding five years. In many
parts of the region, North East Water experienced the worst drought on record before flooding rains in 2010.
Many drought response actions were found to be equally effective during flood periods. Key emergency and
contingency actions taken during extreme water shortages included:
Water restrictions were used as North East Water’s primary demand reduction tool in periods when
water availability was low. All of North East Water’s towns experienced water restrictions to varying
degrees at some stage during the drought. In most cases, water restrictions were enacted prior to
reaching the restriction trigger levels contained in the previous Drought Response Plan. This was due
to the severity of the drought and the uncertainty of conditions in respect to the modelled trigger
levels. These lessons were used to inform the development of updated trigger levels in the Drought
Response Plan 2011.
In the regulated Murray System, North East Water enacted severe water restrictions when opening
allocations were low and a Qualification of Rights was in place with no access to carryover from the
previous year. This ensured that extractions remained within the allocated entitlement. In accordance
with North East Water’s Ovens Bulk Entitlement, severe water restrictions were enacted in Ovens and
King System towns when the resource manager imposed irrigation bans on the Ovens and King rivers.
Severe water restrictions were also enacted at towns supplied from smaller unregulated waterways
with limited or no storage such as Glenrowan, Springhurst, Bright and Whitfield. Water restrictions of
all levels were generally embraced by customers, but there was some variation in restrictable demand
between towns.
North East Water temporarily supplemented supplies from alternative sources at several of its towns
when regular sources of water were physically unavailable or of reduced quality. Periods that water
was trucked ranged from trucking water for a single through to several months at a time. Water
carting was generally limited to small towns due to the logistics involved for larger towns. However, in
2007 when low flows occurred in the Ovens River, a water carting contingency plan was developed for
Wangaratta, but never implemented. Severe water restrictions were generally enacted in conjunction
with water carting to limit demand.
Musk Gully Creek at Whitfield ceased flowing in 2007 and the storage dropped rapidly. North East
Water sought a Qualification of Rights from the Minister to allow extraction of water from the nearby
King River. The Qualification of Rights was approved just days after a significant rain event that saw
the creek commence flowing again and water was never extracted from the King River.
North East Water supplemented the Ovens River supply at Bright by intermittently pumping from the
Harrietville dredge holes from January to March 2007. During this period, approximately 100 ML was
pumped at a rate of up to 5 ML/day. High losses limited the effectiveness of this action, but pumping
of the dredge holes contributed to prolonged stream flows in the Ovens River at Bright and secured
the water supply for Bright which otherwise may have failed.
Several of North East Water Bulk Entitlements make provision for the use of alternative water supply
sources. At Harrietville, the supply source was temporarily changed to the Ovens River from Simmons
Creek as flows began to cease, which allowed Harrietville to be supplied throughout the drought.
Similarly, at Dartmouth, the supply source was changed from Lake Tabor to the Mitta Mitta River due
to poor water quality conditions caused by bushfires.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 23
2.7.2 Supply augmentation
The 2007 Water Supply Demand Strategy identified a number of augmentation options that have been
implemented or implementation will have commenced prior to 2012. In addition a groundwater augmentation
option was implemented for Wangaratta in response to extreme water shortages in the Ovens Basin during
the 2006/07 summer. Supply augmentations and associated outcomes are summarised in Table 6.
Table 6: Summary of supply system changes under Water Plan 2007 and associated outcomes
Community Change in system configuration or change in system management
Outcomes
Barnawartha Local groundwater supply source replaced with piped supply from Wodonga system. (July 2009)
Increased supply reliability
Fully treated supply replaced disinfection only groundwater source
Reduced water quality risks
Provision of fluoride
Bright, Porepunkah, Wandiligong
Design of 520 ML off stream storage with proposed amendment of Bulk Water Entitlement. (expected 2014)
Increased supply reliability
Reduced water quality risks
Increased environmental passing flows for Ovens River
Bundalong Local surface water supply augmented with piped supply from Yarrawonga system. (expected December 2012)
Increased supply reliability
Dual supply pipework providing potable and raw water
Reduced water quality risks
Chiltern Local groundwater supply sources replaced with piped supply from Wodonga system. (April 2009)
Increased supply reliability
Provision of fluoride
Glenrowan Local Fifteen Mile Creek supply source replaced with piped supply from Wangaratta system. (May 2011)
Increased supply reliability
Reduced water quality risks
Provision of fluoride
Porepunkah Replacement of Buckland River supply source with piped supply from Bright system. (September 2008)
Increased supply reliability
Filtered supply
Reduced water quality risks
Springhurst Local catchment and shallow groundwater supply sources replaced with piped supply from Wodonga system. (expected December 2011)
Increased supply reliability
Reduced water quality risks
Provision of fluoride
Wangaratta Augmentation of Ovens River supply source with ground water supplies. (March-April 2007)
Increased supply reliability
Alternative source for use in low flow conditions
Whitfield Local Musk Gully Creek supply source replaced with supply from King River. (expected June 2012)
Increased supply reliability
Fully treated supply to replace disinfection only treatment
Reduced water quality risks
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 24
2.7.3 System water savings
North East Water has implemented a program to improve the efficiency of its delivery systems, which has
resulted in system water losses being reduced by one third since its inception. This program has involved:
Auditing delivery systems to identify areas of high loss.
Annual meter verification program to ensure all data captured is accurate.
Active leak detection to identify and repair main breaks.
Recycling backwash water from water treatment plants.
Investigating zoned metering within larger towns to enable leaks to be located earlier.
Investigating pressure reduction options within towns that have excessive breaks to reduce leakage.
2.7.4 Demand reduction and management
North East Water has observed a significant reduction in demand for water across all sectors in recent years.
Water consumption data has shown that demand per residential connection has been steadily declining since
2004/05. In Wodonga it is estimated that long-term average residential per connection demand has
decreased by around one third from 2004/05 to 2009/10, which is a trend of similar magnitude across all
towns in North East Water’s region. Reduced demand has resulted in improved supply reliability (level of
service) for many systems across the region, including Benalla and Beechworth, and defers the need for supply
augmentation.
Demand reduction has been achieved through changes in customer behaviour, increased water prices and
regulation (e.g. water restrictions). Customer behaviour change has been driven by a range of factors,
including community and education programs, which is discussed in Section 2.7.5.
Commercial and industrial consumers currently account for around one third of North East Water’s total
demand for water. This demand has reduced significantly in recent years. Across the North East Water supply
region, commercial and industrial annual water demand has reduced from 5.8 GL to 4.1 GL between 2006/07
and 2010/11. This is due to a range of factors, including North East Water facilitating the implementation of
the Victorian Government’s waterMAP initiative.
Major industrial, commercial and institutional water-using customers that consume more than 10 ML of water
from an urban water supply in a financial year must develop a water Management Action Plan (waterMAP).
This requirement is outlined in North East Water's Permanent Water Savings Plan 2008 created under the
Water Act 1989 and Water Industry Act 1993 and is therefore mandatory. Developing a waterMAP involves:
Assessing current water use.
Identifying inefficiencies and opportunities for water savings.
Submitting an action plan to implement water conservation and efficiency actions identified.
Report annually on implementation of water conservation and efficiency actions.
The mandatory process requires industrial, commercial and institutional customers to complete a series of
seven templates and submit these to their water corporation (i.e. North East Water).
Non-residential customers that triggered the 10 ML threshold account for approximately 15-20% of
consumption across North East Water. Government sponsored programs, such as waterMAP have been
responsible for promoting responsible use of water by industry and the activities are seen as an integral part of
the North East Water’s demand management activities in the non-residential sector.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 25
2.7.5 Community and education programs
North East Water’s commitment to Community Education saw the appointment of an Education Officer in
August 2007 to develop and enhance the corporation’s commitment to community awareness of sustainable
water use. Working in accordance with the Corporations Strategic Intent and the WSDS the main objectives of
the North East Water education program are to:
Increase community awareness of sustainable water use.
Develop and provide tools and resources to empower communities to conserve water.
Promote North East Water and its operations.
Key activities that have completed under this initiative include:
Building and maintaining partnerships with regional community educators and agencies to develop
regional specific school curriculum resources and joint community programs and events, such as
North East Catchment Management Authority’s Waterwatch program and assisting in the
development and delivery of the School Environment Education Directory (SEED) north east project.
Participation in community events to promote residential water conservation events, such as
Wodonga Children’s Fair, Bunnings' World Environment Day Display, and Benalla Safeway Farmers
Day.
Development of an interactive web-based education resource about water treatment at our facility at
Huons Hill, Wodonga.
Creation of a pilot partnership between North East Water and the Rutherglen Garden Club to
promote good gardening practices and water conservation.
Community presentations on North East Water’s WSDS and promotion of residential water
conservation practices and initiatives.
Coordination and delivery of the ‘Swap and Save’ showerhead exchange program to reduce
residential water use, as a part of the WSDS 2007 initiatives, which has resulted in the exchange of
1,945 showerheads.
A summary of education activities that have been completed since implementation of the WSDS in 2007 is
shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Summary of Education Activities Recently Completed (2007/08 to 2010/11)
Activity Activities Participants involved
Presentations to community groups 21 502
Representation at expos and fairs 32 4,814
Education programs with schools, childcare facilities and teacher professional development
94 4,556
Treatment plant tours for community and school groups 42 992
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 26
2.7.6 Use of water markets
North East Water used water markets during the drought to provide an appropriate level of water security to
its customers during periods of low allocation on regulated systems and low water availability in unregulated
systems. Key activities involving the use of water markets included:
North East Water purchased (permanent) water shares for Benalla, Eskdale, Moyhu, Wodonga and
Yackandandah during the drought. Small volumes were purchased to increase existing bulk
entitlements or allocate to a new licence in the case of Benalla and Eskdale. Additionally, water was
also purchased opportunistically as it became available on the market. Larger volumes were
purchased in the Murray and Ovens and King systems to allow for future growth and provide
customers with greater choice in how they use their water during periods of low water availability.
Water was purchased on the regulated Broken System to provide a contingency supply for Benalla in
the event that the regular supply was unavailable.
Large purchases of seasonal allocations (temporary) up to 4,362 ML were made for the River Murray
Bulk Entitlement to provide customers with a higher level of service than would otherwise be possible
during periods of low allocation on the Murray System.
Carryover of unused entitlement from the previous year was used to provide Murray System
customers with an increased level of service than would otherwise have been possible at 0%
entitlement allocation early in the season. Qualification of Rights was in place in 2008/09 and 2009/10
which allowed North East Water to supply customers at Stage 4 water restriction demand prior to
carryover becoming available in each season. Temporary purchases supplemented these tools to
allow North East Water to enact less severe water restrictions on customers.
North East Water made a number of temporary trades during the drought. These were generally
small volumes to cover shortfalls in Bulk Entitlements. In 2007, 100 ML was traded internally to the
Wangaratta drought relief bores which at that time had no entitlement associated with their licences.
This trade enabled pump tests to be conducted on the bores and maintain them as a contingency
supply for Wangaratta. Carryover was traded less often with only small volumes of carryover in excess
of North East Water’s needs traded out to the water market.
New groundwater supplies were developed at Wangaratta and Bright. During 2007 when the Ovens
River began to fail at Wangaratta, two additional bores were drilled. These bores were completed just
as the Ovens River responded to rainfall and hence were not required that year. Wangaratta now has
three bores and dedicated treatment to integrate groundwater into the existing water reticulation in
the event that the regular source of water from the Ovens River is unavailable. A drought relief bore
was drilled at Bright in 2010 for contingency purposes but has yet to be used.
North East Water’s Urban Water Trading Scheme operated from 2007/08 to 2009/10. The scheme
provided water to customers that would otherwise be limited in their water use due to urban water
restrictions. Customers included schools, sporting associations, wineries and local shires. During this
time we delivered approximately 174 ML to 36 customers. The scheme was a success and is likely to
operate in the future in the event that dry conditions return.
North East Water worked with Goulburn-Murray Water and DSE from 2008 onwards to develop the
Protocol for Crediting Return Flows from West Wodonga Wastewater Treatment Plant. The protocol
was implemented as a pilot in July 2010 and allows North East Water to claim monthly return flow
credits from the West Wodonga Wastewater Treatment Plant against the River Murray Bulk
Entitlement. A total of 804 ML of return flows were credited to the River Murray Bulk Entitlement in
2010/11. North East Water continues to operate under the protocol.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 27
Proposed change to Bulk Entitlement at Bright, due to inclusion off-stream storage, will result in
increased reliability of supply for customers and increased passing flows for the environment. In this
regard, the proposed 520 ML off stream storage will be filled during periods of high river flow and
reservoir will be able meet demand during periods of critical low river flows without the need to
divert from the river. The storage will provide the agreed level of service for customers.
2.7.7 Further studies
Several studies have been undertaken to identify the preferred option for augmenting the supply of systems
identified in the 2007 WSDS. Some of these have been successful in attracting funding and are subsequently
being implemented, while other studies will be used to inform future Water Supply Demand Strategies and
capital upgrade requirements, and are summarised in Table 8.
Table 8: Summary of Studies to support Supply Augmentations
System Study Description Outcome
Springhurst Business case evaluation of options for supply augmentation and funding application.
Resulted in successful funding application under the government Small Town Water Quality fund for a piped supply from the Murray River. This pipeline will be completed in December 2011.
Whitfield Business case evaluation of options for supply augmentation and funding application.
Resulted in successful funding application under the government Small Town Water Quality fund for a secure supply from the King River. The new supply will be completed in mid 2012.
Yackandandah Functional design for supply augmentation from Wodonga system.
Supply augmentation from Wodonga option, scoped and costed for future consideration.
Yackandandah Prefeasibility assessment of availability of groundwater to augment supply for Yackandandah.
Provided base information and cost estimates to progress a groundwater exploration and development program. The investigation program will be considered as funding becomes available.
Goorambat Business case evaluation of options for supply augmentation and funding application
Whilst the funding application under the government Small Town Water Quality fund was unsuccessful, the preferred option was identified, scoped and costed for implementation in the future.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 28
System Study Description Outcome
Harrietville Business case evaluation of options for provision of safe drinking water and funding application
Whilst the funding application under the government Small Town Water Quality fund was unsuccessful, the preferred treatment component option was identified, scoped and costed, which can be used in conjunction with augmentation in the future.
Benalla Benalla supply options investigation and subsequent functional design to augment supply from Broken River.
Preferred option identified, scoped and costed for augmenting supply for Benalla in the future.
Wangaratta Ovens Valley Water Resource Appraisal Investigations led by Goulburn-Murray Water.
Several studies funded by State and Commonwealth governments to investigate the availability and interconnection of surface water and groundwater in the Ovens Valley.
Bright and Harrietville Upper Ovens River Water Supply Protection Area Water Management Plan led by Goulburn-Murray Water.
The plan was prepared following the declaration by the Minister of the Upper Ovens Basin as a water supply protection area. The plan proposes common management arrangements for surface water and groundwater to achieve increased environmental flows.
Wodonga and Yackandandah One Resource pilot project conducted for Yackandandah and Wodonga.
Shared understanding with the community alternative water sources available to achieve outcomes sought by the community and ultimately achieving improved supply reliability (level of service).
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 29
3 Methodology for analysing the supply and demand balance
3.1.1 Types of demand
North East Water supplies water to a wide variety of customers who use that water for many different
purposes. The majority of North East Water’s customers are residential customers, who account for almost
90% of total connections to North East Water’s supply system, as shown in Figure 13. Commercial/industrial
customers account for around 10% of total connections, with the remaining 1% of connections to vacant land.
Figure 13: Distribution of North East Water customer connections by type
In contrast, the distribution of water demand by customer type is shown in Figure 14. This figure indicates
that commercial/industrial customers account for just over one third of total water demand and residential
water use accounts for just under two thirds. This is based on customer meter data in 2010/11 and may vary
slightly from year to year in response to climate conditions.
Figure 14: Distribution of North East Water customer demand consumption by type
10% of total
89% of total
1% of total
Commercial/industrial
Residential
Vacant Land
37% of total
63% of total
0% of total
Commercial/industrial
Residential
Vacant Land
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 30
The population serviced by North East Water is approximately 115,000 people. The larger towns in the region
that are supplied by North East Water include Wodonga, Wangaratta, Benalla and Yarrawonga.
Water supply from North East Water supports various industries. These industries are important for both the
regional and State economy, and include international export industries. Some of the major water users
supplied by North East Water include food processing industries (e.g. food, soymilk and pet-food
manufacturers, livestock saleyards, abattoirs and local wineries), manufacturing (e.g. timber processing, fibre
production), recreational facilities (e.g. golf courses) and government facilities (e.g. hospitals, correctional
facilities).
3.2 Determining Levels of Service
3.2.1 What is meant by Levels of Service?
In the context of this WSDS, level of service refers to the long-term security of supply of a water supply system.
Security of supply is measured by the frequency, severity and/or duration of water restrictions, as well as the
ability to maintain a minimum supply during drought. Security of supply is often used interchangeably with
the term reliability of supply, which has an equivalent meaning in this WSDS. There are two aspects to North
East Water’s level of service; an agreed level of service and minimum level of service.
An agreed level of service reflects a desired maximum frequency of restrictions for a supply system in the
long-term. If this level of service is not met, then customers would expect to experience restrictions more
frequently than desired. North East Water has planned to be able to maintain this level of service in the long-
term under anticipated future climate change conditions.
Restrictions can vary for different customer segments, refer to North East Water’s website
(www.newater.com.au) for more information on water restriction details.
The level of service in this WSDS is assessed using long-term water resource models of each supply system.
The actual level of service experienced by customers at any time over the next 50 years may differ from the
long-term modelled estimate, as occurred from 1997-2009 when a series of unforeseen consecutive dry years
resulted in a high frequency of restrictions. The level of service (reliability of supply) will be higher during
prolonged and/or severe wet climate periods and lower during prolonged dry climate periods.
The agreed level of service can be affected by a number of factors, and is often limited by the nature of the
supply system. The agreed level of service can be changed if customers are willing to pay for a different level
of service. If the best available demand reduction or supply enhancement option is relatively inexpensive,
then a higher level of service can be readily achieved with little or no impact on water prices. On the other
hand, if the best available option is expensive, then it may result in a substantial increase in water prices, and a
lower level of service may be preferable.
A minimum level of service reflects North East Water’s commitment to maintain supply for in-house
residential water consumption and commercial/industrial demand. North East Water has capacity to supply
this volume during a repeat of the worst historical drought on record, adjusted for future climate change.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 31
3.2.2 Minimum Level of Service
North East Water’s minimum level of service meets the demand for unrestrictable in-house and
commercial/industrial use. This component of demand is what would be provided to customers under Stage 4
restrictions, as outlined on our website (www.newater.com.au).
The magnitude of this demand will change over time with changes in population, in-house water use efficiency
and the nature of commercial/industrial demand. North East Water has the capacity to deliver the minimum
level of service to all of its customers, which is approximately 6,500 ML/yr based on the current (2010/11)
level of demand.
3.2.3 Agreed Level of Service
North East Water’s agreed level of service provides a 90% likelihood that customers will not be asked to
reduce water consumption in any given year, based on forecast community needs for water over the 50 year
planning horizon.
North East Water is planning to provide the proposed agreed level of service to all of its customers, subject to:
Integration of 520 ML storage into Bright water supply system (expected 2014).
Augmentation of the Goorambat water supply system included in Water Plan 3 (2013 – 2018).
3.3 Forecasting demand
3.3.1 Factors influencing demand
There are numerous factors which can influence future demand for water from North East Water’s customers,
as outlined in Figure 15. These influences can be distilled into uncertainties around future climate, water use
behaviour, demographics, technological development and the state of the economy. North East Water has
focussed on estimating the changes in future demand which are readily quantifiable and which could have a
significant impact on the water resource planning decisions in this WSDS. These include:
Uncertainties around future climate and potential changes in customer demand.
Changes in water use behaviour due to price increases, education and uptake of alternative water
supplies (e.g. roof water or grey water).
Changes in demographics due to population growth and changes in occupancy rates.
Technology developments that enable reduced water losses at water treatment plants and
advancements in leak detection and remediation methods to reduce losses in North East Water
reticulation systems.
Changes in the economic environment that can result in a change in industrial or commercial
demand, due to the expansion, contraction or additional businesses in the area.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 32
Figure 15: Typical factors influencing urban water demand (from Turner et al. 2010)
3.3.2 Approach adopted to forecast demand
North East Water has used a sector based approach to forecast demand. Historical demand from residential,
industrial, commercial and vacant land connections in each supply system were separately analysed and
forecasted. Raw and treated water losses were also separately forecasted. The components of demand by
customer type at the current level of demand were estimated using the sum of recent customer meter data.
Demand was estimated as a function of input climate, but also gave regard to changes in population and water
use behaviour over recent years. Residential demand was a function of baseline demand and population
growth (refer to Sections 3.3.3 and 3.3.4, respectively), whereas industrial, commercial and vacant land
demand was assumed to be equal to the year 2010/11 for most systems.
Unlike residential demand, industrial, commercial and vacant land demand was assumed to be constant
throughout the year. An allowance was made for distribution losses downstream of the treatment plant, with
the remainder being assigned to residential water use. The exceptions to this procedure were at towns with
seasonally variable commercial water use such as at Bright, Beechworth, Myrtleford, Yackandandah,
Dartmouth, Eskdale and Rutherglen. In these towns commercial demand was assumed to vary seasonally in a
similar manner to residential demand, rather than being constant throughout the year.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 33
3.3.3 Baseline demand
The baseline water demand for each supply system has been derived by fitting demand models to metered
bulk water usage from North East Water’s treatment plants. Data collected over periods of water restriction
were excluded from the demand model fitting procedure. The form of the demand model used was to
estimate demand as a function of climate conditions and time, where the time variable was used to represent
trends in population and water use behaviour that were not directly attributable to climate variability.
An example demand regression is shown in Figure 16, which shows that the demand model performs
reasonably well in estimating historical demands, with only minor over- or under-fitting of demands in some
months. The fit statistics were good, with a monthly coefficient of determination (R2) typically greater than 0.9
and a standard error of estimate less than 10%.
In the demand regression example shown in Figure 16, the dashed light blue line represents the historical
demand over the period, the solid pink line shows the modelled demand based on climatic conditions fitted for
that system. When estimating demands at the current (2010) level of population and water use behaviour,
shown as the dashed purple line, the time variable was set to equal to 1 July 2010,.
In the example shown in Figure 16 for Benalla, the demands at the current level of population and water use
behaviour are lower than the historical demands in 2005/06, which reflects the reduction in per capita water
use in Benalla since 2004/05. This example was fairly typical for the demand models fitted to each supply
system.
Figure 16: Example demand regression fitted to treated water data (Benalla)
The last step in the process to estimate total raw water demand was to make an allowance for losses in North
East Water’s headworks (between raw water offtake and the treatment plant outlet). This was done by
comparing historical metered raw and clear water data over the last few years. The adopted headworks and
treatment and distribution losses used in for the WSDS are presented in Table 9.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Wat
er
Co
nsu
mp
tio
n (
ML/
mo
nth
)
Clear Water Clear Water Demand @ 2010 LOD Historical Est. Clear Water Demand
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 34
Table 9 Headworks and distribution water losses adopted for purposes of WSDS
Town Water losses in Headworks (% of clear water demand)
Water losses in Distribution (% of clear water demand)
Beechworth 10% 8%
Bellbridge 22% 5%
Benalla 10% 7%
Bright 28% 5%
Bundalong 14% 5%
Corryong 18% 5%
Dartmouth 45% 5%
Eskdale 10% 5%
Goorambat 10% 5%
Harrietville 18% 5%
Mount Beauty 22% 5%
Moyhu 10% 12%
Myrtleford 10% 5%
Oxley 61% 14%
Springhurst 10% 5%
Tallangatta 10% 5%
Wahgunyah 10% 6%
Walwa 22% 5%
Wangaratta 10% 8%
Whitfield 10% 5%
Wodonga 10% 5%
Yackandandah 10% 5%
Yarrawonga 12% 6%
3.3.4 Approach adopted to forecast population growth
Population and residential connection forecasts have been developed for each of North East Water’s current
water supply systems by considering the following data:
North East Water residential water connection data (1998 -2011).
Victorian Government’s Towns in Time population data (1981 – 2006).
Victorian Government’s Victoria in Future population projections (2008).
North East Water’s 2007 WSDS and Water Plan 2 population and occupancy forecasts.
The approach adopted to determine the population and connection forecasts for each of NEW’s current water
supply systems involved:
1. Identifying historical population, connection and occupancy data.
2. Forecasting population and connections using existing projections, such as Victoria in Future, and
considering other relevant atypical information.
3. Comparing forecast and historical trends and selecting a forecast based on an appropriate fit.
4. Verifying selected population forecasts with local councils.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 35
3.3.5 Consideration of water restrictions on demand
Water restrictions are implemented by North East Water to conserve water supply during times of limited
supply, particularly during drought. This helps to ensure that customers receive their minimum level of service
during these periods. Water restrictions are a relatively low cost, infrequently used measure that is applied to
avoid expensive investment in water supply system infrastructure (except when supply is limited by allocation,
such as systems supplied by the regulated River Murray) . As discussed in Section 2.7.1, temporary water
purchases were made for the River Murray Bulk Entitlement to provide customers with a higher level of
service than would otherwise be possible during periods of low allocation on the Murray System and this
practice will continue in future when it is appropriate.
North East Water adopted the four stages of restriction in the Victorian Uniform Water Restriction Guidelines
(VWIA, 2005) for modelling purposes. This includes the permanent water saving measures that require
customers to use sensible water saving practices at all times, such as the use of trigger nozzles on hoses. The
anticipated reduction in restrictable demand at each stage of restriction in this WSDS is 14%, 44%, 67% and
98%, as specified in these guidelines. Under Stage 4 restrictions only unrestrictable in-house and
commercial/industrial demands are assumed to be supplied to customers.
The Victorian Water Restriction Guidelines were updated after the draft WSDS was completed and prior to the
WSDS being finalised. The updated guidelines take into account the experience of urban water utilities across
Victoria in implementing the previous guidelines and aim to simplify the rules at each stage of restriction so that
they are easier for customers to understand and so that there is a more even progression of actions from mild to
severe restriction stages. A summary of the revised rules for outdoor garden watering is shown in Figure 17. The
reduction in demand anticipated at each stage of restriction is expected to be relatively consistent with the
previous guidelines. Therefore this change is not expected to alter any outcomes in this WSDS.
Figure 17: Revised arrangements for outdoor watering (VicWater, 2011)
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 36
3.3.6 Consideration of System Water Savings on Demand
North East Water has achieved significant water savings in its delivery systems in recent years through the
implementation of a program to improve their efficiency, which is discussed in Section 2.7.3. Further water
savings (reduction in losses) in North East Water’s delivery systems are outlined in Table 10. These savings
have been used in the supply-demand balance assessment and to determine supply augmentation timing.
Table 10: Forecast water savings (reduction in losses) in headworks and distribution
Supply system/Town
Forecast water savings
(percentage of total water losses
in distribution/headworks) Comment
Headworks Distribution
Beechworth 40% 50% Headworks losses require investigation.
Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Bellbridge 0% 0% Relatively new system, therefore negligible
savings.
Benalla 20% 50% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Bright 0% 80% Significant losses in distribution due to
infrastructure age and high pressure.
Leak detection survey required.
Bundalong 0% 0% Relatively new system.
Corryong -10% 65%
New WTP will increase losses in headworks.
Additional meter required to assess leakage.
New WTP will reduce flushing in distribution due to improved water quality conditions.
Dartmouth -10% 50% New WTP will increase losses in headworks.
Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Eskdale 0% 0% Relatively new system.
Glenrowan 0% 50% New metering has indicated significant
savings in distribution can be achieved.
Goorambat 0% 0% Negligible losses in the system.
Harrietville 0% 50% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Mount Beauty 0% 80%
Significant losses in distribution due to infrastructure age and high pressure.
Leak detection survey required.
Disaggregated system increases losses.
Moyhu 0% 50% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Myrtleford 0% 50% New WTP will reduce flushing in distribution
due to improved water quality conditions.
Leak detection survey required.
Oxley 40% 50% Headworks losses require investigation.
Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Wahgunyah/Rutherglen 20% 50% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Springhurst 0% 75% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 37
Supply system/Town
Forecast water savings
(percentage of total water losses
in distribution/headworks) Comment
Headworks Distribution
Tallangatta 0% 70% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Walwa 0% 75% Leak detection survey required.
Wangaratta 0% 50%
Distribution needs to be broken into designated management areas (additional meters in distribution) to identify leakage.
Leak detection survey required.
Significant losses in distribution due to infrastructure age.
Whitfield -10% 0% New WTP will increase losses in headworks.
Wodonga 0% 50%
Significant losses in distribution (e.g. 100 ML/yr lost at Bears Hill).
Distribution needs to be broken into designated management areas (additional meters in distribution) to identify leakage.
Yackandandah 0% 50% Meter accuracy at low flows needs to be
verified to properly assess leakage.
Yarrawonga 0% 50% Additional meter required to assess leakage.
Leak detection survey required.
3.4 Forecasting supply
Water supply system yield is the amount of water that can be reliably harvested from a supply system. Yield
can be affected by several factors, such as the amount of rainfall in North East Water’s supply catchments, the
mix of water sources in each supply system, the available storage, operational rules that North East Water
must follow for extracting water and passing environmental flows, and North East Water’s target levels of
service. Yield is defined by the Water Services Association of Australia as “the average annual volume that can
be supplied by a water supply system subject to an adopted set of operational rules and a typical demand
pattern without violating a given level of service standard” (Erlanger and Neal, 2005).
For this WSDS, water resource models for each supply system have been used to estimate how much water
could be supplied over a long-term climate sequence (40+ years) without experiencing restrictions more
frequently than desired under the agreed level of service, whilst also maintaining the minimum level of service
in the most severe drought over that climate sequence. Yield at any point over the planning horizon is defined
for this strategy as the average annual demand at which these level of service objectives are just met. Using
the average annual demand to define yield allows direct comparison with the future demand projections to
determine when demand exceeds available yield.
North East Water has considered yield at two levels of service, namely at 90% annual reliability, which is the
trigger for demand reduction or supply enhancement measures, and 95% annual reliability, which is the target
level of service for the supply system when these measures are first implemented. A 90% annual reliability
corresponds to a likelihood of 90% that North East Water’s customers will not be restricted in any given year in
the long term.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 38
Sources of supply uncertainty were previously discussed in Chapter 3 of this WSDS. The main source of
uncertainty incorporated into the analysis was the effect of potential future climate change.
Figure 18 shows an example supply projection, in this case for Benalla. This graph shows that at an annual
reliability of 90%, North East Water could supply an average annual demand close to its bulk entitlement limit
of 2,324 ML/yr. At this level of service, North East Water’s bulk entitlement limits extraction rather than water
availability from the supply source. Climate change could slightly reduce the available yield by the year 2060,
as shown by the dry climate change (CC) scenario. At the higher level of service of 95% annual reliability,
North East Water could only reliably supply around 1,750 ML/yr before restrictions would start to occur more
frequently than desired.
Figure 18: Example supply projection (Benalla)
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Vo
lum
e (M
L)
Yield at 95% reliability (Wet CC) Yield at 95% reliability (Median CC) Yield at 95% reliability (Dry CC)
Yield at 90% reliability (Wet CC) Yield at 90% reliability (Median CC) Yield at 90% reliability (Dry CC)
Bulk Entitlement
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 39
4 Decision-making framework for guiding action
4.1 Water supply planning
This section of the WSDS outlines the role of North East Water’s short- and long-term water planning tools and
how they interlink. North East Water has three key water planning tools which form its integrated decision
making framework:
1. WSDS – a proactive tool used to identify requirements over the long term.
2. Drought Response Plan – an operational tool that informs appropriate responses in the short term.
3. Annual Water Security Outlook – a tool that informs the re-evaluation of short and long term needs.
The WSDS sets out when particular actions might be needed over a 50 year planning period to maintain
minimum and agreed levels of service. In contrast, the Drought Response Plan sets out the short-term actions
that could be needed during drought in order to maintain the minimum level of service, particularly if climate
conditions reduce yields and increased demands exceed supply. These short-term actions include temporarily
using alternative supply sources or temporarily introducing water restrictions, as occurred across north east
Victoria in recent drought years such as 2006/07. Drought response actions can be implemented quickly in
response to an immediate need, but may not necessarily be the most cost effective solution in the long-term.
North East Water’s WSDS presents a timetable to implement demand reduction and supply enhancement
measures over the next 50 years. When faced with a drought that threatens supply security, North East Water
has a choice about whether to bring forward a planned long-term action, or to implement a short-term action,
thereby deferring a long-term action until it is more likely to be utilised on an ongoing basis. By integrating the
planning processes for the WSDS and Drought Response Plan, North East Water is able to directly compare
short- and long-term options to make the best decision about which actions to implement at any given time.
The Annual Water Security Outlook provides an understanding of likely supply system behaviour over the
coming 12 months. It informs a re-evaluation of short and long term needs by considering current supply
system conditions and projects how the supply system would behave under wet, average, dry and very dry
climate conditions. The Annual Water Security Outlook identifies whether security of supply is likely to be
threatened, and if so, how long it is likely to be until demand reduction or supply enhancement measures are
required.
4.1.1 Update of Drought Response Plan
North East Water updated its Drought Response Plan in 2011 in parallel with the update of its WSDS. Common
elements of the two plans include:
Common supply system descriptions.
A common set of demand models.
Common level of service targets.
Utilisation of the same water resource models to assess supply system performance.
The Drought Response Plan was prepared in accordance with DSE’s Ministerial Guidelines for Developing and
Implementing a Drought Response Plan (1998). For each supply system, the Drought Response Plan discusses
the short-term actions available during drought and provides triggers for implementing those actions as
climate conditions progressively worsen. Lessons learnt by North East Water about the viability of alternative
supply options are documented in the Drought Response Plan, and have also informed the assessment of
alternative supply options in the WSDS.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 40
4.1.2 Decision making framework to aid integration
The role of these three water planning tools in North East Water’s integrated decision making framework for
action are shown in Figure 19. North East Water will implement the timetable of actions in this WSDS, but may
either defer or bring forward actions depending on the climate conditions or changes in demand in any
individual year.
Figure 19: North East Water’s decision making framework for action
When faced with a possible future water shortage, North East Water considers a number of factors before
deciding whether to implement a temporary drought response measure or a long-term measure identified in
the WSDS. These include:
Lead indicators of drought – Supply systems which can display early warning signs of drought allow
WSDS response options with long lead times to be implemented. For example, low allocations for
towns supplied from the River Murray are generally known well in advance, whilst low river flows for
towns supplied from local tributaries are sometimes only known a few weeks in advance.
Duration of drought – Longer duration droughts allow WSDS response options with long lead times to
be implemented. Forecast supply system behaviour and the Bureau of Meteorology’s seasonal
climate forecasts provide a broad indication of likely drought duration.
Lead time for response action – An action in the WSDS must be able to be implemented quickly if it is
to be an effective drought response measure. If the lead time is longer than the time available until
reliability of supply to customers is threatened, then the action will not help to maintain North East
Water’s minimum level of service during the drought.
Cost of implementation – Depending on the likely duration of drought, the cost of implementing a
WSDS measure may be more or less than the cost of implementing a measure from the Drought
Response Plan.
Annual Water Security Outlook-Likelihood of drought occurring-Likely lead time until security of supply is threatened-Likely severity and duration of drought
Water Supply Demand Strategy-Most cost effective long-term actions-50 year implementation timetable
Drought Response Plan-Rapid drought response actions-Seasonal triggers to implement actions
Implement WSDS timetable of actions but:-Defer action if:(i) Annual Water Security Outlook indicates no likely threat to
security of supply; and (ii) Lead time to implement WSDS action is shorter than outlook
forecast period-Bring forward action if: (i) Annual Water Security Outlook indicates likely threat to
security of supply; and (ii) Lead time to implement WSDS option is shorter than the
likely time available until the threat is realised; and(iii) The WSDS action is more cost effective than the best available
DRP action given the likely drought duration and severity
North East Water’s Planning Tools North East Water’s Actions
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 41
4.2 Identifying potential need for action
4.2.1 Long-term assessment of system performance under different scenarios
The long-term assessment of system performance in this WSDS is largely based on a comparison of supply
system yield and supply system demand over the 50 year planning horizon. The supply and demand
projections were derived as described in Section 0 of this WSDS. An illustration of an example supply and
demand curve over the planning horizon is shown in Figure 20. When projected demands exceed the available
yield, it does not imply that North East Water will no longer be able to supply its customers. For most supply
systems it means that the frequency of restrictions would be expected on average over the long-term to be
more frequent than desired by North East Water’s customers. Small deviations below the agreed level of
service are likely to be imperceptible to customers. For example, it is unlikely that customers would be able to
perceive a difference if mild restrictions occurred on average in the long-term 1 year in 9 (89% supply
reliability) rather than 1 year in 10 (90% supply reliability). Customers would however be likely to perceive a
difference if restrictions were to occur 1 year in 5, which would be roughly double the agreed frequency of
restrictions.
Figure 20: Yield and demand over the planning horizon (example only)
For some supply systems, such as Harrietville, the drought response triggers for implementing restrictions are
based on available streamflow at North East Water’s supply offtakes. For these supply systems, changes in
demand over the 50 year planning horizon will have no impact on the frequency of restrictions experienced by
North East Water’s customers, unless demand is near the Bulk Entitlement limit. It is only the changes in river
flow under future climate change which will impact on the frequency of restrictions (or reliability of supply)
experienced. The method of presenting results for these supply systems is illustrated in Figure 21, which
shows demand presented separately to the changes in annual reliability of supply.
Average annual volume
Time
2010 20602020 2030 2040 2050
Demand
Yieldfrom water resource
modelling over a long-term climate
sequence
Demand for water increases as
population growsYield from supply systems
decreases with climate change
Year in which demand exceeds yield (restrictions start to occur more frequently than agreed
level of service)
Supply to customers will be regularly restricted in these years without supply
enhancement or demand reduction measures
Supply to customers will rarely be restricted in these
years
Time
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 42
Figure 21: Reliability and demand over the planning horizon (example only)
4.2.2 Short-term assessment of system performance under different scenarios
The short-term assessment of system performance under different scenarios was based on North East Water’s
Annual Water Security Outlook. Compared with other areas of Victoria, inflows to North East Water’s storages
are high relative to their storage capacity and demand. This means that North East Water’s supply system
storages can quickly be drawn down during drought and equally recover quickly once the drought has broken.
The period over which a short-term assessment of system performance can reasonably be assessed by North
East Water is not longer than around 12 months.
The Bureau of Meteorology’s short term (three month) forecast of climatic conditions was used as a basis to
determine the most likely climate scenario for the region, and an Annual Water Security Outlook was
developed for each of North East Water’s different supply system types. The method by which the outlook for
towns supplied from local rivers with storage, local rivers without storage, the Goulburn-Murray Water
managed Ovens and King system, the regulated River Murray system and groundwater, have each been
described in turn below.
An example of Annual Water Security Outlook for each system is shown in its respective system plan.
Towns supplied by local rivers with available storage include Benalla, Beechworth, Corryong and Myrtleford.
An outlook has been prepared from the start of November 2011 to the end of September 2012 in this WSDS,
and will be updated annually thereafter. North East Water’s storages in these systems were full at the start of
November 2011, which is the assumed start storage volume for the outlook.
Annual reliability of supply
Time
2010 20602020 2030 2040 2050
Demand
Time
Demand for water increases as
population grows
Yield from supply systems
decreases with climate change
Year in which target reliability of supply is no longer met (restrictions start to
occur more frequently than agreed level
of service)
Supply to customers will be regularly restricted in these years without supply
enhancement or demand reduction measures
Supply to customers will rarely be restricted in these
years
Time
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 43
The analysis consists of estimating the predicted behaviour in each supply system under representative low
inflow sequences of various degrees of severity. The low flow sequences have been selected to correspond
with historic climate periods when North East Water’s available storage would have been drawn down to meet
current demands. These periods were selected using data available in existing water resource models. The
method used to derive these inflow sequences is as follows:
Select the year with the largest maximum drawdown and years with a maximum drawdown that
would be exceeded in 5%, 10% and 25% of years.
Use the inflows in these years to determine the likely drawdown given the starting condition provided
by North East Water, i.e. full storage as at 1st of November 2011.
The largest maximum drawdown occurs when the volume in storage is at its lowest and corresponds to
anticipated supply system behaviour in a repeat of the worst drought on record. This event has a 1-2% chance
of occurring in any given year based on historical climate behaviour. The 5th
, 10th
and 25th
percentile maximum
drawdown mean that there is a 5%, 10% and 25% chance respectively that the maximum drawdown will be
greater than these values over the coming twelve months. Alternatively, this information can be interpreted
as a 95%, 90% and 75% chance that the volume in storage will not drop below these values over the coming
twelve months. These likelihoods are approximately only, because other than the starting storage position,
they do not take into account catchment soil and groundwater moisture conditions in North East Water’s
supply catchments when assigning likelihoods to inflow sequences.
Towns supplied by local rivers without available storage include Harrietville, Bright1, Walwa, Mount Beauty
and Yackandandah. For these supply systems the Annual Water Security Outlook is developed based on
streamflow conditions leading up to and as at 1st
November 2011. Streamflow volumes are correlated with
historical data to ascertain the trend direction and current flow scenario. The majority of these systems were
experiencing around average stream flows up to 1 November 2011. The seasonal rainfall outlook and seasonal
streamflow forecasts for south east Australia issued by the Bureau of Meteorology have been used to forecast
likely streamflow conditions up until the end of December 2011.
A three month outlook has been prepared from 1 November 2011 to 1 February 2012 in this WSDS, and will be
updated annually at a minimum thereafter. The forecast for each system is expressed qualitatively based on
actual data and predictions. Due to the inherent variability in these systems additional controls are in place to
ensure that resources are managed appropriately throughout the year including daily streamflow monitoring.
It is proposed that the Annual Water Security Outlook be updated when further information becomes available
or with any notable change in system status.
Towns supplied by groundwater only include Goorambat. For this supply system the Annual Water Security
Outlook is developed based on groundwater level and customer consumption patterns leading up to and as at
1 November 2011. Groundwater levels and consumption patterns have been compared with historical data to
ascertain the current trend type and groundwater level status. The seasonal rainfall outlook for south east
Australia issued by the Bureau of Meteorology has been used to develop a three month forecast up until
1 February 2012 in this WSDS and will be updated annually thereafter. The forecast for this system is
expressed qualitatively based on actual data and predictions. Due to the inherent variability in this system
additional controls are in place to ensure that resources are managed appropriately throughout the year
including daily groundwater level monitoring. It is proposed that the Annual Water Security Outlook be
updated when further information becomes available or with any notable change in system status.
1 The short-term assessment of the Bright system performance will remain under the “Towns supplied by local
rivers without available storage” until the new off-stream storage is completed.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 44
Towns supplied by the Goulburn-Murray Water managed Ovens and King system include Moyhu, Oxley,
Whitfield and Wangaratta. For these supply systems the Annual Water Security Outlook is developed based on
advice issued by Goulburn-Murray Water (the resource manager for the Ovens and King systems). Monthly
forecast restriction curves for Lake Buffalo and Lake William Hovell issued for November 2011 have been used
to forecast operating conditions for the Ovens and King Rivers up until 1 February 2012 in this WSDS and will
be reviewed annually at a minimum thereafter. The forecast for each system is expressed qualitatively based
on actual data and predicted conditions. Other controls in place to ensure that resources are managed
appropriately throughout the year in these systems include daily storage and stream flow monitoring. It is
proposed that the Annual Water Security Outlook be updated when further information becomes available or
with any notable change in system status.
Towns supplied by the River Murray regulated river system include Eskdale, Bellbridge, Tallangatta,
Yarrawonga, Rutherglen/Wahgunyah, Wodonga and surrounding towns. A nine month Annual Water Security
Outlook has been developed from 1 November 2011 to 1 July 2012 in this WSDS and will be updated annually
at a minimum thereafter. Reliably forecasting beyond June is difficult because allocations announced by
Goulburn-Murray Water are only valid to the end of the current season in June. As all these towns are
supplied from one bulk entitlement on the Murray regulated system, a combined water reserve covering all
towns has been developed. The forecast water reserve volume available is determined by the following
factors:
Carryover volume from the previous year.
Entitlement volume.
Return flow credits.
Water purchases and/or trades.
Current and forecast irrigation allocations.
The water reserve is expressed quantitatively which allows North East Water to make operational decisions in
conjunction with trigger levels contained in the Drought Response Plan. Additional controls are in place to
ensure that resources are managed appropriately including daily monitoring of customer usage and storage
volumes. It is proposed that the Annual Water Security Outlook is updated when further information becomes
available or with any notable change in system status.
An annual water security outlook for Dartmouth has been developed from 1 November 2011 to 1 February
2011 in this WSDS and will be updated annually at a minimum thereafter. Dartmouth’s Lake Tabor storage was
full at the start of November 2011. The seasonal rainfall outlook and seasonal streamflow forecasts for south
east Australia issued by the Bureau of Meteorology have been used to forecast likely inflow conditions for the
following three months. A three month outlook has been prepared in this WSDS, and will be updated annually
at a minimum thereafter. The forecast for this system is expressed qualitatively based on actual data and
predictions. Due to the inherent variability in this system additional controls are in place to ensure that
resources are managed appropriately throughout the year including storage volume monitoring. It is proposed
that the Annual Water Security Outlook be updated when further information becomes available or with any
notable change in system status.
4.3 Possible options
4.3.1 Classification of Initiatives
A range of potential supply enhancement and demand reduction measures are available to North East Water.
These measures have been classified based on North East Water’s ability to manage the supply source, as
shown in Table 11. Any additional licensed water sources such as groundwater and surface water would be
managed by North East Water and therefore would add to North East Water’s available supply. Supply of
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 45
recycled water from North East Water’s wastewater treatment plants is similarly managed by North East
Water and is considered to be a supply enhancement measure. On the other hand, household, industry or lot
scale initiatives cannot readily be managed or monitored by North East Water and therefore are considered to
reduce demand on North East Water’s managed supply system. The majority of initiatives in North East
Water’s Alternative Water Atlas serve to reduce demand on North East Water’s managed supply system.
Table 11: Classification of supply enhancement and demand reduction initiatives
Demand reduction measures Supply enhancement measures
Water efficient appliances
Water use behaviour change
Rainwater tanks
Reduction in system losses
Household, industry or lot scale stormwater harvesting
Household or industry greywater use
Water pricing
Groundwater
Surface water
Bulk water storages
Recycled water from NEW’s treatment plants
Centralised NEW stormwater harvesting systems
Using Water Markets
Water Carting
4.3.2 Demand Initiatives
North East Water’s customers have made significant water savings since the WSDS was last prepared five years
ago. Table 12 shows that North East Water’s long-term average demand, as estimated in the current (2012)
WSDS, is around 33% lower than the estimated demands in the previous (2007) WSDS. This is believed to
largely reflect changes in customer behaviour in response to North East Water’s current demand reduction
initiatives, as well as North East Water’s own water savings through improved management of leaks and
losses. The community response to the water shortages experienced during the dry years 2006 to 2008 was
also significant in reducing demand.
Table 12: Success of demand reduction initiatives to date compared with 2007
Long-term average clear water
demand estimate in 2007 WSDS
(ML/yr)
Long-term average clear water
demand estimate in 2012 WSDS
(ML/yr)
Water saving (% of 2007 estimate
of long-term average demand)
21,250 14,280 33%
North East Water has implemented a number of demand initiatives since the completion of the 2007 WSDS,
which are outlined in Sections 2.7.2, 2.7.4 and 2.7.5. The continuation of these demand reduction measures is
supported by the policy settings from the Victorian Liberal Nationals Coalition Plan for Water (2010), which
extends funding for existing rebates and encourages industry and developers to use and promote water
efficiency. Water restrictions are not a demand reduction initiative in the WSDS and have been reserved as a
drought response measure only in North East Water’s Drought Response Plan.
Given the success of North East Water’s demand reduction initiatives to date, the WSDS has assumed that no
further reduction in per capita demand is anticipated. North East Water will aim to hold the current ground
gained on water savings through its ongoing programs. Specific leak reduction measures in individual towns
are uniquely identified in the WSDS and will contribute to further demand reduction in those towns.
It is possible that consumers will partially revert to previous water use behaviour if relatively wet conditions
continue over the next few years. This would mean that some of the water savings achieved to date may be
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 46
lost. This is because the impetus for customers to save water can be lower when there is no immediate threat
of drought. As part of its scenario planning, North East Water has allowed for some “bounce back” of
residential demands. The 2007 WSDS utilised demands equivalent to year 2004/05 levels of water use
behaviour. The 2012 WSDS assumes demands equivalent to year 2009/10 levels of water use behaviour. The
“bounce back” scenario assumes demands equivalent to the year 2007/08 levels of water use behaviour.
Table 13 shows that if consumers were to revert to water use behaviour similar to that in 2007/08, demand
would be expected to be approximately 15,550 ML/yr, or around 9% higher than the baseline 2012 WSDS
demand.
Table 13: Potential “bounce back” of Residential Demands for Scenario Planning compared with 2007
Long-term average clear water
demand estimate in 2007 WSDS
(ML/yr)
Long-term average clear water
demand estimate in 2012 WSDS
(ML/yr)
Long-term average clear water
demand estimate with partial
“bounce back” to pre-drought
water use behavior (ML/yr)
21,250 14,280 15,550
4.3.3 Supply initiatives – Potable water services
North East Water has implemented a number of supply enhancement measures as a result of undertaking the
previous WSDS in 2007. Key changes to North East Water’s supply system that have been implemented since
2007 or approved by North East Water’s Board for implementation in the near future are outlined in
Section 2.7.2.
North East Water has also further developed some of the supply enhancement options identified in the 2007
WSDS so that these options are closer to being ready to implement if required in the near future. This further
work has also improved the level of information available for the current WSDS. This work is outlined in
Section 2.7.7.
The reduction in customer demand since 2007 has meant that a number of the supply enhancement options
previously contemplated in the 2007 WSDS can now be deferred or are no longer likely to be required over the
50 year planning horizon. For supply systems where supply enhancement options may still be required in the
future, North East Water has largely drawn upon the supply enhancement options that were examined in the
previous WSDS. North East Water has added greater consideration of alternative water supply sources as part
of its Alternative Water Atlas, which is discussed in greater detail in Section 4.3.4.
Each supply initiative outlined in this strategy contains a description of the initiative, likely volumes to be
provided from the initiative, the time required to implement the initiative and its social, environmental and
financial costs and benefits.
When assessing the viability of supply initiatives, consideration is also given to relevant government
regulations and policy that can affect the availability of water from individual sources. The most relevant
regulations affecting supply initiatives are listed as follows:
The Murray-Darling Basin Cap – limits the volume of surface water that can be diverted from each of the
Basin’s major rivers. Victoria does not issue any new entitlement or licences in northern Victoria. Additional
surface water entitlements for North East Water can only be accessed from water savings projects or
purchasing allocations or entitlements from other water users.
The Murray-Darling Basin Plan – In contrast to the Guide to the Proposed Basin Plan (MDBA, 2010), the
Proposed Basin Plan (MDBA) 2011 does not identify changes to surface water or groundwater availability
specifically for the north east region of Victoria.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 47
Water supply protection areas (WSPAs) – can be declared where strict management is required to protect the
groundwater and/or surface water resources in the area. Once an area has been declared, a management plan
is prepared. A water supply protection area has been declared for the Upper Ovens River catchment. The
Upper Ovens River Water Supply Protection Area Water Management Plan was approved by the Minister in
January 2012 and released by Goulburn-Murray Water in February 2012. Any supply initiatives in the Upper
Ovens River are likely to be subject to the rules in this plan, once it is finalised.
Permissible consumptive volumes (PCVs) – are the maximum volume of water that can be used for
consumptive purposes for groundwater or surface water. PCVs are progressively being set for all groundwater
management areas and water supply protection areas. For these areas, licences are not issued if the PCV is
already reached or if licences would cause it to be exceeded. PCVs have been set for the Upper Ovens WSPA,
and the Lower Ovens, Barnawartha and Mullindolingong Groundwater Management Areas in north east
Victoria.
Heritage Rivers - The Heritage Rivers Act 1992 protects various rivers around Victoria by limiting the structures
that can be placed on those rivers. A list of each Heritage River and the activities that may or may not be
permitted is provided in the Heritage Rivers Act 1992. Sections of the Mitta Mitta River and Ovens River are
designated heritage rivers.
4.3.4 Supply initiatives – Alternative Water Services
North East Water has prepared an Alternative Water Atlas for each of its systems. It has been prepared to
inform future water supply decisions, providing information regarding relevant, achievable alternative water
resources related to specific geographic locations within the North East Water service area. The Alternative
Water Atlas is an inventory of alternative water supplies and the extent to which they are currently being used
by customers. It includes:
The volumes of stormwater, recycled water and other alternative water sources available within the
works of North East Water (including wetlands and retarding basins) and/or local council.
Provides information that will inform future opportunities for the use of treated stormwater, recycled
water and other alternative water sources in the control of either North East Water or local council.
The Alternative Water Atlas has identified a variety of opportunities for the substitution of potable water in
communities serviced by North East Water. The Alternative Water Atlas (inventory) is available in each of the
respective system plans.
4.3.5 North East Water’s One Resource framework
The requirement for an Alternative Water Atlas is consistent with North East Water’s One Resource approach,
which reflects a strategic goal of the Corporation to deliver sustainable water services that meet the outcomes
sought by customers, which is, delivering water that is fit-for-purpose. Accordingly, North East Water has used
the One Resource framework for the development of the Alternative Water Atlas.
The One Resource approach is based on the premise that customers do not buy water because they want
water, rather they desire the outcome that it provides and is underpinned by three strategic themes:
Efficiency: Encourage and optimise water efficiency.
Choice: Maximising choice in use, maximising choice in supply.
Security: Reliability of supply.
A key element of the approach has been the development of guiding principles and a conceptual framework
that are readily understood and communicated to enable customers to participate in the identification of
options can meet the water service outcomes that they seek.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 48
The One Resource approach applies seven guiding principles to enhance customer choice through access to a
range of products and service opportunities that meet agreed outcomes. These are:
A holistic approach to all water resources.
Fit-for-purpose products.
An appropriate risk profile.
Endurance – Sustainability across all areas.
A benefit to broader community - Customer choice and acceptance of product.
A value proposition – Efficient use of resources.
Recognition that North East Water does not have a monopoly on the provision of water services.
The guiding principles inform a conceptual framework that enables broad consultation and delivers outcomes
that meet shared expectations, which is presented in Figure 22.
Figure 22: North East Water’s One Resource framework
The customer-focussed approach of One Resource aligns the quality of water required by the customer with
the most efficient delivery infrastructure and the capacity of the environment to meet the outcome sought. It
is important to note that efficient delivery of the water service may utilise infrastructure that is owned by the
Corporation or a third party. The consistent application of the guiding principles enables the framework to be
applied across small and large communities.
Populating the One Resource framework, recognising the diversity of water resources used and the outcomes
sought by water users, is a key step in informing future water service delivery decisions. An example of the
One Resource framework populated for a large community on the Murray System is shown in Figure 23.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 49
Figure 23: Populated One Resource framework for a large community on the Murray System
Identification of opportunities to address actual or potential water use outcomes sought by end-users enables
each opportunity to be objectively evaluated. Importantly it enables both North East Water and communities
to discuss and accept or reject potential service delivery options based on agreed criteria.
The One Resource approach has been adopted by North East Water as a key step in the delivery of sustainable
water services. It forms the basis of consultation with customers and communities to identify future water
service delivery outcomes sought and is a key element informing subsequent business case development.
4.3.6 Water restrictions
Water restrictions are implemented by North East Water to conserve water supply during times of limited
supply, particularly during drought, as discussed previously in Section 3.3.5. Future water restrictions will be
implemented in accordance with the updated Victorian Water Restriction Guidelines. Refer to North East
Water’s website for further information www.newater.com.au.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 50
5 Ensuring reliability of supply
5.1 Provision of Minimum and Agreed Level of Service
The supply and demand balance was examined for each supply system over the 50 year planning horizon. This
analysis highlighted that with the reduction in demand achieved by North East Water and its customers in
recent years, many of the previously proposed supply augmentation options can be deferred or are no longer
required over the planning horizon. The agreed level of service is currently met for most of North East Water’s
supply systems, with the exception of Goorambat, where there is currently some uncertainty about the level
of demand that groundwater aquifer supplying the town can sustain.
Table 14 highlights the anticipated range of years at which the agreed level of service is expected to no longer
be met with the current supply system. The expected year at which the agreed level of service (reliability of
supply) would no longer be met is based on the projected demands with North East Water supply system
savings and median climate change projections. The earliest year corresponds to dry climate change
conditions and slightly higher projected demands, which is based on the possibility that residential customers
revert to their higher water use behaviour. The latest year corresponds to projected demands with system
savings and wet climate change conditions. The forecast supply-demand balance graph presented in Figure 24
illustrates when the agreed level of service would no longer be met under a range of scenarios for the
Corryong water supply system.
Towns where action may be required by North East Water before the year 2025 are highlighted in red.
Table 14 indicates that action is required at Goorambat, Harrietville and Corryong. Goorambat supply system
extracts water from a shallow groundwater bore which has insufficient yield to meet the agreed level of
service and supply augmentation is required immediately, as significant demand reduction has already been
achieved. For Corryong, some form of demand reduction or supply enhancement is expected to be required
by the year 2032 providing forecast water savings in the system are achieved, but could be as early as 2013 if
demand increases under the dry climate change scenario. For Harrietville, the level of service objectives are
expected to be met until around the year 2049, however if dry climate change conditions were to eventuate,
some form of demand reduction or supply enhancement could be required by the year 2020.
For all other towns, no action is expected to be required until after the year 2040. Under a higher demand and
dry climate change scenario, action would still not be required until after the year 2028. This gives North East
Water at least 15 years to plan for any actions in these supply systems, and hence our long-term planning
activities will be considered for these systems when their supply and demand status is revised in five years
time. Supply system behaviour will continue to be monitored and reported on in North East Water’s Annual
Water Security Outlook.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 51
Table 14: Provision of Minimum and Agreed Level of Service
Supply system
Is minimum
level of service
currently met?
Is agreed level
of service
currently met?
Range of years over planning horizon at
which agreed level of service would no
longer be met with current supply system
Expected Earliest Latest
Beechworth Yes Yes -
Bellbridge Yes Yes 2060 2028 >2060 Benalla Yes Yes -
Bright Yes Yes >2060 2040 >2060 Corryong Yes Yes 2032 2013 >2060
Dartmouth Yes Yes -
Eskdale Yes Yes -
Goorambat Yes No 2012
Harrietville Yes Yes 2049 2020 >2060
Mount Beauty Yes Yes -
Moyhu Yes Yes -
Myrtleford Yes Yes >2060 2037 >2060
Oxley Yes Yes -
Tallangatta Yes Yes 2060 2028 >2060 Wahgunyah/ Rutherglen Yes Yes 2060 2028 >2060 Walwa Yes Yes -
Wangaratta Yes Yes 2041 2029 2060
Whitfield Yes Yes -
Wodonga Yes Yes 2060 2028 >2060 Yackandandah Yes Yes -
Yarrawonga Yes Yes 2060 2028 >2060
Note: “-“ indicates that the level of service objectives are expected to be satisfied over the next 50 years with
the current supply system and existing operating rules.
Figure 24: Forecast Supply-Demand Balance with Augmentation (Corryong system)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Vo
lum
e (M
L)
Balance Supply-Demand for Corryong
Average annual demand Demand with savings Yield with augmentation
Yield (Median CC) Yield (Dry CC)
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 52
5.2 Approaches to provide Agreed Levels of Service
Approaches available to balance supply and demand may be categorised under demand management, supply
augmentation, or in some cases both. The approaches identified to ensure North East Water provides the
agreed level of service are consistent with, or in many cases an extension of the approaches delivered under
the 2007 WSDS. The five approaches include:
1. Delivery System Performance (demand management).
2. Demand Management (demand management).
3. One Resource (demand management/supply enhancement).
4. Using Water Markets (supply enhancement).
5. Secure Water Source (supply enhancement).
The recommended approaches and options within each approach are described in the following sections. The
application, or priority, of options within each approach across North East Water’s 21 water supply systems is
presented in Section 6.
5.3 Evaluation of options
5.3.1 Demand management options
The demand management options are not system specific and will in general be applicable to all systems. As
such demand management options have been assessed in a generic manner with a qualitative analysis of the
identified demand management options. It is also noted that the take up of many of demand management
initiatives is customer driven (i.e. dependent on customer attitudes and behaviour). For example installation
of water efficient appliances and rain water tanks.
5.3.2 Supply augmentation options
Supply augmentation can be required to ensure an Agreed Level of Service can be met and are system specific.
A sustainability assessment is provided for each supply augmentation option. The sustainability assessment
incorporates monetary and non-monetary aspects taking social, environmental and economic costs and
benefits into account. It is not the intention of the strategy to make a recommendation regarding alternative
options as this decision is best made after more detailed analysis of the options closer to when the
implementation of the option is required. Such detailed analysis is more properly carried out as part of the
business case for the particular investment. The sustainability evaluation however does provide a strategic
analysis of the identified options. Supply augmentation details are provided in respective system plans. A
summary of the options for towns with highest priority for augmentation is provided in Table 22.
5.3.3 Supply augmentation principles
Supply augmentations are required in the Water Plan 3 period where the Level of Service is currently, or is
forecast to drop, below the agreed Level of Service by 2018 (the end of the next Water Plan period).
Supply augmentation principles have been developed in accordance with the Agreed Levels of Service
(reliability of supply), and are detailed below.
1. No communities will have a reliability of supply of less than 90%, subject to funding availability for
required augmentations and inclusion in Water Plan 3.
2. Communities with a reliability of supply between 90% and 95%:
a. Understand options and cost (planning) to increase reliability of supply to 95%.
b. Consider increasing reliability to 95% if compelling need is demonstrated.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 53
5.3.4 Principles for assessment of supply augmentation options
All supply augmentation options have been scoped (and costed) to deliver safe drinking water and include
water treatment components, where required. Each option has been assessed to determine its impact on
social, environmental and economic sustainability. The assessment criteria are listed below.
Economic:
o Net Present Cost.
o Regional Gross Domestic Product.
Environmental:
o Greenhouse Gas.
o Environmental Flow.
o Water Quality.
o Effect on Ecosystems.
Social:
o Acceptability.
o Heritage/Recreational.
The Net Present Cost Assessment has been conducted using a discount rate of 5.1% over a 20 year evaluation
period. The economic criteria consider net present costs and potential impact on regional pricing.
5.4 Delivery system performance
5.4.1 Description and application
This approach aims to overcome any knowledge shortfalls, improve the understanding of water losses in each
delivery system, improve the management of these systems and ultimately reduce water losses. This
approach is a continuation of the Delivery System Performance Strategy recommended in the last WSDS and
aims to increase water savings already achieved in the delivery systems since its inception in 2007.
Achievements of this strategy are outlined in Section 2.7.4. The options embedded within this approach are
presented below in Table 15.
The target for the Delivery System Performance approach is to reduce system losses (non-revenue water)
across the region by approximately 660 ML. This will be achieved by reducing water losses from headworks
(between raw water offtake and the treatment plant outlet) by 5% (58 ML) and water losses in the distribution
by 60% (600 ML).
Corryong should be considered a priority for achieving delivery system performance improvements as this
could defer a supply augmentation (off-stream storage or groundwater supply) by approximately 20 years.
Table 15: Summary of Delivery System Performance Options
Code Option and Description
DSP-1 Delivery System Water Audits
Ongoing auditing of delivery systems to identify areas of high loss and opportunities for leakage reduction and recovering backwash water in fit-for-purpose applications.
An audit has already been completed for the Wodonga distribution network.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 54
Code Option and Description
DSP-2 Headworks Water Management
Investigate opportunities to reduce water losses in the headworks (between raw water offtake and the treatment plant outlet). Water savings may be achieved by recycling backwash water at water treatment plants or reducing water losses at offtakes, transfer mains and storages. This option could reduce water losses by approximately 60 ML/yr.
DSP-3 Leakage Control
Implement a leakage detection program to actively identify high water losses and follow up with actions to reduce leakage.
Install additional meter(s) in priority delivery systems to improve leakage assessments and focus leakage mitigation efforts.
DSP-4 Annual Meter Verification Program Annually check the operation of all water meters to ensure that they are working within manufacturer’s tolerances for accuracy.
DSP-5 Zoned Metering and Pressure Reduction Identify systems where zoned metering and pressure reduction measures would be feasible and cost effective to reduce water losses in the distribution.
5.4.2 Benefits
Implementation of the Delivery System Performance Theme:
Reduces the demand on its delivery systems which can defer supply augmentations and/or
purchasing additional Bulk Entitlement. This is especially highlighted in the Corryong delivery system,
where an augmentation can be deferred by nearly 20 years if forecast water savings in the delivery
system can be achieved.
Improves North East Water’s understanding of total demand in its delivery systems, providing the
Corporation with greater confidence and certainty in planning.
Reduces water losses, resulting in more efficient and cost effective delivery of supply to the customer.
5.4.3 Constraints
The main constraint is finding the appropriate balance between investigations and the necessary follow-up
work with resource capabilities. It can be difficult to identify leaks in large systems such as Wodonga.
5.5 Demand management
5.5.1 Description and application
Given the success of North East Water’s demand reduction initiatives to date, this WSDS has assumed that no
further reduction in per capita demand is anticipated. North East Water will aim to hold the current ground
gained on water savings and minimise any “bounce back” in demand levels through its ongoing programs.
The Demand Management approach recommends customer education, pricing and regulation measures to
contain individual customers’ demand for water, which are outlined in Table 16. There is some overlap with
the One Resource approach but this latter approach is focused on delivery system scale options.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 55
Table 16: Summary of Demand Management Options
Code Option and Description
DM-1 Customer Education – Provision of advice and information Continue North East Water’s education program to develop and enhance the Corporation’s commitment to raising community awareness of sustainable water use. The main objectives of this program are to:
Increase community awareness of sustainable water use.
Develop and provide tools and resources to empower communities to conserve water.
Promote water conservation messages.
Mechanisms include:
Informative bills, guidelines, fact sheets, media.
Representation at expos and fairs.
Targeted programs such as tours of water treatment plants by school children and focus groups.
Participation in National Water Week.
Public forums, information sessions and meetings.
Working with councils and North East Catchment Management Authorities (e.g.
Waterwatch).
Building capacity in schools in programs such as the School Environment Education Directory
(SEED).
Partnerships with industry (e.g. Rutherglen Garden Club) to promote efficient gardening
practices and water conservation.
Customer information available on website.
Call centre Monday to Friday office hours – 8.30am to 5pm.
Refer to Section 2.7.5 for recent achievements.
DM-2 Incentives for Water Conservation Devices and Efficient Appliances
Continue to facilitate Government Water Rebate Programs. Living Victoria Water Rebate Program is the current Government scheme, which provides rebates for:
Water conservation audits.
Hot water recirculators.
Water efficient showerheads.
Dual flush toilets.
Permanent greywater systems.
Rainwater tanks.
Pool covers.
Efficient washing machines.
Other low cost water saving measures.
Supply and installation costs would be borne by owners with incentives being provided through government rebate programmes.
DM-3 Customer (non-residential) Water Conservation and Demand Reduction Continue to facilitate the Government’s waterMAP initiative that encourages industrial and commercial customers to develop a Water Management Action Plan to improve their water efficiency to achieve water and cost savings.
Due to the success of the waterMAP initiative, the Government has expanded the program on a voluntary basis to encourage industrial and commercial customers that consume more than 5 ML/yr from an urban water supply. North East Water will actively engage with these customers over the next 18 months to raise their awareness of the benefits of water conservation and assist them in securing funding for projects suitable under current grants schemes offered.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 56
Code Option and Description
DM-4 Customer (local government) Water Conservation and Demand Reduction Continue to work with Local Government Authorities to identify opportunities to reduce demand for potable water and utilise fit-for-purpose applications. Potential initiatives have been identified in each of the respective system plans.
DM-5 Pricing North East Water’s tariff structure empowers customers to manage their water costs (and consumption) by placing high reliance on the volumetric component of the tariff relative to the fixed component. This tariff structure should continue as a means of providing price signals for the use of water.
DM-6 Regulation – Water Restrictions Continue to apply restrictions in accordance with North East Water’s Drought Response Plan (2011) and the Victorian Government’s expectations. Refer to North East Water’s website for additional information www.newater.com.au.
DM-7 Innovative Technology Continue to work with the broader water industry (e.g. Intelligent Water Networks) to understand how new technology (e.g. smart water meters) could be used to manage demand.
5.5.2 Benefits
This approach has the potential to defer the need for a supply augmentation, as is evident for systems such as
Corryong, and can provide a permanent reduction in demand. A reduction in demand for potable water also
results in a reduction in treatment and energy costs, and reduced diversions from the environment.
Of particular benefit are options that reduce peak daily demand that is primarily for watering residential
gardens and public open space. Reducing the peak demand by switching to low-water use gardens could
provide multiple benefits and defer the need for infrastructure upgrades such as water treatment plants.
Using a ‘local’ source of non-potable water can also offer additional benefits to a greater or lesser degree
depending on the particular circumstances of the customer and the delivery system.
5.5.3 Constraints
North East Water has observed a significant reduction in demand for water across all sectors in recent years
and there are many customers that practice water conservation. There is a risk that increased water supplies,
and hence less restrictions, may result in consumption per capita creeping upward. The success of this
approach is largely in the hands of the customers, and hence from a risk management perspective North East
Water could not solely rely on this approach to keep demand in balance with supply and will use its Annual
Water Security Outlook to monitor supply and demand on an ongoing basis.
5.6 One Resource
5.6.1 Description and application
North East Water provides water services through 21 discrete water systems, each of which present different
opportunities and challenges to deliver outcomes sought by the community. The WSDS does not identify
preferred alternative water options for each of its systems, instead it uses the One Resource framework to take
a holistic approach considering all initiatives that reduce demand on North East Water’s supply system, such as
rainwater tanks and greywater use, and initiatives that enhance its supply, such as raw water irrigation
schemes. Refer to Table 11 for a list of potential supply enhancement and demand reduction initiatives. The
customer-focussed approach of One Resource aligns the quality of water required by the customer with the
most efficient delivery infrastructure and the capacity of the environment to meet the outcome sought.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 57
The One Resource framework has been developed by North East Water as a strategic tool guiding future water
service delivery decisions. It has been prepared to inform future water supply decisions, providing information
regarding relevant, achievable alternative water resources related to specific geographic locations within the
North East Water service area. The One Resource framework has been used to prepare an Alternative Water
Atlas for each of its systems, refer to Section 4.3.5 for more information.
An overview of One Resource options identified in WSDS is shown in Table 17.
Table 17: Summary of One Resource Options
Code Option and Description
OR-1 Use One Resource approach for Supply Augmentations assessments
Use the One Resource approach for all future supply augmentations assessment to ensure the efficient water service delivery of outcomes sought by the community by taking a holistic approach to water resource management.
OR-2 Populated One Resource Frameworks
Work with councils and communities to populate One Resource frameworks for each of the 21 water delivery systems to align fit-for-purpose water resources with community sought outcomes.
(N.B. One Resource frameworks have already been populated for Yackandandah and Wodonga).
OR-3 Sustainability assessment of One Resource Frameworks
Work with councils and communities to shortlist water service delivery options identified in the populated One Resource frameworks considering social, environmental and financial implications.
Where feasible, implement shortlisted water service delivery options. The infrastructure to deliver
the water service may be owned by North East Water or a third party (e.g. Council).
5.6.2 Benefits
Benefits that will be realised by implementing the One Resource approach include:
Understanding of outcomes sought by the community.
Engaged and informed community.
Efficient water service delivery and potential deferral of traditional supply augmentations, resulting in
cost savings to North East Water customers and its customers.
Diversified water supplies which will improve resilience against future shocks, such as drought.
Integrated water management which may result in multiple outcomes achieved (e.g. stormwater
treatment wetland integrated with stormwater reuse scheme).
Decommissioned North East Water infrastructure, such as offtakes and storages, could potentially be
used to deliver alternative water sources.
5.6.3 Constraints
Potential challenges in implementing the One Resource approach include:
Complex legislative framework of water management and need to improve understanding.
Aligning different stakeholder objectives and requirements.
Gaining regulatory support for innovative water service delivery options, such as Managed Aquifer
Recharge (MAR).
Overcoming stakeholder perception of some fit-for-purpose uses (e.g. public open space irrigated
with General reclaimed water).
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 58
5.7 Using Water Markets
5.7.1 Description and application
The purchase of additional water entitlements
North East Water considers the purchase of additional entitlement on the northern Victorian water market to
be a very effective method for balancing supply and demand in the long term for its regulated supply systems.
During extended dry periods, water markets can also be used by North East Water to purchase seasonal
allocations (valid for use in a single year only) to meet the minimum level of service. North East Water will
continue to access entitlements through the water trading market to allow for future growth and to manage
the annual variation in demand. High reliability water shares are North East Water’s preferred entitlement
product, because they provide the necessary reliability during dry years which is not available with low
reliability water shares.
Any purchase of additional entitlements needs to be aligned with infrastructure planning to ensure sufficient
capacity to deliver the required volumes. The full cost of using water markets includes the purchase price of
entitlements or allocations plus the purchase and operating costs of diversion pumps, upgrades to water
treatment plants, transfer mains, additional storage (raw water and treated water), and off-stream storage
capacity where applicable in unregulated supplies. Capital and operational costs of infrastructure to augment
supply is dealt with under the Secure Water Source approach.
The purchase price of entitlements and allocations varies according to season and demand. Prices generally
increase during times of water shortage. In 2009/10 the median price of Murray system high reliability water
shares was $2,200/ML and the median price of seasonal allocations was around $300/ML, but highly variable
(NWC, 2010). North East Water holds only a very small portion of the total entitlement available in the
southern Murray-Darling Basin connected water market, which is predominantly used for irrigation.
When water shares are purchased from the water market by North East Water, they can be added to our bulk
entitlements, which are the legal instruments by which North East Water is permitted to divert water. Bulk
entitlements generally specify an annual limit on the amount of water that can be diverted. In regulated
systems, they can also provide a share of storage capacity and the right to take water from specific points in
the system. In unregulated systems, they include a diversion rate limit, an obligation to provide passing flows
and a requirement to stop diversions below minimum streamflow levels. In order to meet variations in annual
demand from year to year, at a minimum North East Water generally needs to hold entitlements that exceed
the average annual demand by a margin that has regard to the desired reliability of supply.
Forms of Entitlement
The form and number of entitlements to water was rationalised as part of the Victorian Government’s water
reform (DSE 2004). The common forms of entitlement and trading options available for each form of
entitlement are outlined in Table 18 and Table 19, respectively.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 59
Table 18: Common Forms of Entitlement to Water used in Victoria
Entitlement Comments
Bulk Entitlement High reliability water shares (HRWS) are held by North East Water in the Murray
system. Allocations from these shares can be obtained most readily by North East
Water from users in the trading zone upstream of the “Barmah Choke”, which is a
natural constraint on the delivery of water to irrigators downstream of this point.
Allocations of water to these shares are announced after making provisions for
operation of system for the current and following seasons in the Murray system. There
is a 97% likelihood that the full share volume will be allocated by the end of June in any
given year in the long-term.
Low reliability water shares (LRWS) are available only if the needs of high reliability
shares are met for the current and next season. As indicated above, allocations to LRWS
are not reliable enough for use by North East Water.
Carryover was introduced by the State Government in 2006/07 to allow water users to
keep unused water allocation in storage for use in the following season (i.e. water is
“carried over” from one year to the next). In the Murray system, carryover is unlimited,
however the water carried over can be lost if the Murray system storages spill, unless
the resource manager (Goulburn-Murray Water) has declared a ‘low risk of spill’. The
Murray system storages include the major storages of Lake Hume and Lake Dartmouth,
however the spill assessment is based on Dartmouth’s volume. There is also a small
penalty (5%) applied to water carried over in July to allow for evaporative losses from
these storages.
Diversion Licence This is a simplified form of entitlement typically issued by private diverters on
unregulated rivers such as the Ovens River upstream of Myrtleford. Licence holders are
allowed to divert up to a specified annual volume at a specified diversion rate, and may
be subject to restrictions on water use during periods of low river flow. North East
Water holds a diversion licence for the supply to Bundalong, which is located in the
regulated Murray system. The conditions placed on both the licences and their trade
can also make them less attractive for increasing North East Water’s bulk entitlements in
the unregulated river systems.
Stock and
Domestic
Small volumes provided to meet essential needs of livestock and rural households.
These licences are not available for trade with North East Water.
Groundwater
Licence
Groundwater licences are issued within and outside of managed groundwater areas. In
managed groundwater areas such as the Upper Ovens Water Supply Protection Area, a
licence may be issued with zero entitlement and hence existing entitlement must be
temporarily or permanently traded subject to specific trading rules. Outside of managed
groundwater areas, a new groundwater licence may be issued with a new entitlement
volume. The water markets for groundwater licences are less active than for the Murray
regulated river system, hence there are fewer trading opportunities for North East
Water.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 60
Table 19: Flexibility to Trade Water
Supply Category Permanent Trade Temporary Trade
Regulated surface
water
North East Water can either buy
additional entitlements or sell any excess.
A buying approach would only be
recommended for the Murray system
where agreed levels of service may not be
met after 2033 under the “dry” climate
change scenario.
Similar to permanent trade but allocation
may not be available to buy when needed
most.
Access to the temporary market is a valid
risk management option when facing
unexpected peaks in demand or extended
dry periods.
Unregulated surface
water
As above, but restrictions such as
‘winter-fill’ only can be imposed when
traded from downstream, or minimum
flow required in waterway before
diversion allowed. Flow in streams is
lowest when demand is highest.
Therefore need to be able to access more
entitlement to ensure security of supply.
This approach would only be
recommended where the bulk
entitlement volume is a constraint on
achieving the agreed level of service.
Similar to permanent but usually a more
limited potential market given the
unregulated nature of the source.
Groundwater Trade is only required if seeking
additional groundwater in managed
areas. Trading opportunities are
restricted to the trading zones (which
may differentiate between aquifers)
within the Groundwater Management
Area or Water Supply Protection Area.
Trade is only required if seeking
additional groundwater in managed
areas. Trading opportunities are
restricted to the trading zones (which
may differentiate between aquifers)
within the Groundwater Management
Area or Water Supply Protection Area.
Stormwater
The State Government policy, as outlined in the Central Region Sustainable Water Strategy (DSE, 2006), is that
if stormwater is flowing to a stream from an existing development, assume up to 50 per cent of existing
stormwater can be harvested for consumptive use and 50 per cent is reserved for the environment. If there is
a scheme to harvest more than 50 per cent of the resource a study is required to assess the implications for
the environment. If stormwater is generated from a new development, all of it is available for consumption
with the aim of the development having no impact on catchment run–off. Stormwater harvesting is tied to the
local physical harvesting of that water and hence is not readily tradeable.
Wastewater Return Flow credits
Goulburn-Murray Water’s Protocol for Crediting Return Flows from West Wodonga Wastewater Treatment
Plant was implemented as a pilot in July 2010. It allows North East Water to claim monthly return flow credits
from the West Wodonga Wastewater Treatment Plant against the River Murray Bulk Entitlement up to the
volume of urban diversions to Yarrawonga and Wahgunyah/Rutherglen. This means that if the volume
discharged is greater than the volume of water diverted, the excess is not credited. North East Water cannot
currently trade its return flow credits to other water users. Given that water is being discharged into the
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 61
regulated River Murray, North East Water will investigate opportunities to allow the return flows discharged to
be traded to other consumptive users.
Urban water trading scheme
In response to the impact of water restrictions on community facilities such as sports grounds, and businesses
that rely on outdoor water use, North East Water instigated a pilot ‘urban water trading’ project. The pilot
enabled qualifying water users to purchase water allocations on the open market, which allowed these
businesses to meet their outdoor watering needs in the face of severe restrictions. The water is separate to
that available under North East Water’s allocation, and to account for water used in treatment and
distribution, urban water trading customers receive 80% of the volume purchased.
Access to additional water through the market is a means of easing the severity of restrictions. All participants
are required to abide by the appropriate efficient water usage practices. The Corporation will make water
trading available to groups or individuals who manage community-use assets such as sporting grounds, and to
businesses for which the prevailing restrictions would cause demonstrable business losses. For businesses, the
watering of lawns will not be considered an appropriate reason for an exemption unless there is a significant
safety issue.
Options
For this WSDS only permanent trade in entitlements is considered as an option. Options under the Using
Water Markets Options are outlined in Table 20. Any necessary delivery mechanism such as pipelines or off-
stream storages is addressed in the Secure Water Source approach.
The main application of the approach is to those delivery systems that directly access the supply source such
as Wodonga and Wangaratta and do not require a delivery mechanism.
Table 20: Summary of Using Water Markets Options
Code Option and Description
UWM-1 Regulated Supply - Bulk Entitlement
Use the current market arrangements to purchase additional entitlement as required to maintain the long term agreed level of service. Assumes that the necessary upgrades to water treatment plant and distribution mains are made.
Maintain the capability to access the temporary market to overcome periods that are drier than anticipated.
UWM-2 Unregulated Supply - Bulk Entitlement
Purchase additional entitlements on an opportunistic basis to maintain the long term agreed level of service, subject to conditions of trading zone (refer to Table 18 and Table 19). May require upgrades to pumps, treatment plants, potable water storage and mains, or pipelines that connect to regulated systems and/or off-stream storages that relying on being filled in winter.
UWM-3 Unregulated Supply – Groundwater Licence
Purchase additional entitlement if required. May require substantial modelling to determine suitable sites and sustainable yield from bores.
UWM-4 Carryover
Maintain North East Water’s current policy on carryover which is to ensure that the maximum carryover volume is kept from year to year.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 62
Code Option and Description
UWM-5 Wastewater Return Flow credits
Continue to operate under Goulburn-Murray Water’s Protocol for Crediting Return Flows from West Wodonga Wastewater Treatment Plant, water discharged from the plant can be credited against diversions to Yarrawonga and Rutherglen/Wahgunyah.
Pursue option to trade return flow credits.
UWM-6 Urban Water Trading Scheme
North East Water’s Urban Water Trading Scheme to be updated and to operate again in the future during severe restrictions. This would allow for providing water to customers that would otherwise be limited in their water use due to urban water restrictions.
5.7.2 Benefits
Allows for growth in demand beyond the savings from other options and provides for security of supply to
meet annual variation in demand. In regulated systems there are few constraints to accessing additional
entitlement.
5.7.3 Constraints
Permanent entitlements are seen as providing security for customers and this is most effective where there is
a regulated water supply. Temporary trade involves less certainty if there is a high demand for entitlements.
In dry periods or periods of reduced allocations, there is a major risk that there will be few willing sellers in the
temporary water trading markets.
In unregulated systems, there is no real temporary trade and very little opportunity for permanent trade.
Additional entitlement from the same sources is unlikely to improve long term reliability without infrastructure
investment to improve off-stream storage capacity.
5.7.4 Non-viable options
Using water markets is not a viable option in unregulated supply systems, such as Harrietville and
Yackandandah, where reliability is currently linked to streamflows. Additional entitlement would not
necessarily improve reliability unless storage is available to harvest water in the winter months.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 63
5.8 Secure Water Source
5.8.1 Description and application
This approach involves augmenting the supply for a system that has a resource constraint (e.g. Goorambat).
Supply augmentations may involve:
Connecting a delivery system to one that has a more secure supply with a pipeline.
Constructing off-stream storage to increase the ‘yield’ of the supply source by capturing ‘winter fill’.
Supplementing supply with an alternative source such as groundwater.
Supplementing supply with carted water.
The approach includes the ‘delivery mechanism’ and the acquisition of additional entitlements, where
required.
In accordance with the supply augmentation principles described in Section 5.3.3. Secure water source
options have been developed for systems that:
1. Can not provide the agreed level of service (reliability of supply of less than 90%), which includes
Goorambat.
2. Offer a reliability of supply between 90% and 95%, which includes Wangaratta, Corryong and
Harrietville.
The options for this strategy are presented in Table 21.
Supply augmentations which are currently underway but yet to be completed are listed below and described
in more detail in Section 2.7.2.
Bright off-stream storage (expected to be completed in 2014).
Bundalong supplied from Yarrawonga system. (expected to be completed December 2012).
Springhurst supplied with pipeline from Wodonga supply system (expected to be completed in
December 2011).
Whitfield supplied from King River (expected to be completed in June 2012).
Table 21: Summary of Secure Water Source Options
Code Option and Description
SWS-1a Goorambat supply augmented with pipeline from Devenish
The existing supply is provided from a shallow groundwater bore and the yield from this bore in recent years has been insufficient to meet peak daily demands during summer.
The option involves replacing the existing supply with a supply from the River Murray via the Yarrawonga system by extending the Yarrawonga to Devenish pipeline to Goorambat.
SWS-1b Goorambat supply augmented with additional groundwater
This option would involve the development of additional groundwater supply. There is some uncertainty with this option as a suitable low salinity source needs to be located in the area. Considerable investigation and groundwater exploration would be needed to establish the required groundwater supply. This option would also require a water treatment plant upgrade to ensure compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act 2003.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 64
Code Option and Description
SWS-1c Goorambat supply supplemented with water carting
Carting water from Devenish to Goorambat is another option under consideration. On average, This option would require up to six truckloads a day every 5 years. This option would also require a water treatment plant upgrade for the existing groundwater supply to ensure compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act 2003.
SWS-2a Wangaratta supply augmented with off-stream storage
Wangaratta’s existing supply is from the Ovens river which is regulated by Goulburn-Murray Water. Extraction from the river is restricted during periods of low flow, which limits the volume that North East Water can supply and results in the need for restrictions to manage supply and demand.
This option involves the construction of a 65 ML storage on North East Water’s Crosher Lane property which would be filled during winter from the existing extraction point and treated with the existing water treatment plant.
SWS-2b Wangaratta supply augmented with groundwater
This option involves supplementing the existing surface water supply with groundwater. Development of additional groundwater supply may be required to ensure a supply of 10 ML/day can be provided. This option would also require a water treatment plant upgrade for groundwater supply to ensure compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act 2003.
SWS-3a Harrietville supply augmented with off-stream storage
The existing supply is predominantly from the Simmons Creek with supply from the East branch of the Ovens river during low flow periods. During low flow periods the bulk entitlement for Harrietville requires minimum passing flows to be allowed with the need to place restrictions to manage supply and demand.
This option involves the construction of a 6 ML storage which would be filled during winter and new water treatment plant to ensure compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act 2003.
SWS-3b Harrietville supply augmented with groundwater
This option would involve replacing or supplementing the existing surface water supply with groundwater, depending on the yield and water quality of the groundwater supply. There is some uncertainty with this option as the source would need to be extracted from a deep groundwater aquifer that is not connected to the surface water supplies. Considerable investigation and groundwater exploration would be needed to establish the required groundwater supply. This option would also require a water treatment plant upgrade to ensure compliance with the Safe Drinking Water Act 2003.
SWS-3c Harrietville supply supplemented with water carting
Carting water from the proposed Bright off-stream storage and water treatment Plant to Harrietville is another option under consideration. On average, this option could require up to 10 truckloads a day for 30 days every 10 years. This option would also require a water treatment plant upgrade for the existing surface water supply to achieve drinking water quality compliance.
SWS-4a Corryong supply augmented with off-stream storage
The existing supply is pumped from Nariel Creek to a 90 ML off-stream storage dam. Pumping and diversion from Nariel Creek is not possible during low flow events.
This option involves the construction of a 30 ML off-stream storage adjacent to the existing storage, which would be filled during winter.
SWS-4b Corryong supply augmented with groundwater
This option would involve replacing or supplementing the existing surface water supply with groundwater, depending on the yield and water quality of the groundwater supply. There is some uncertainty with this option as no groundwater investigation has been carried out to inform this option.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 65
5.8.1 Other initiatives
DSE is leading an investigation into options for augmenting supply in the Wangaratta region by increasing
storage capacity (Lake Buffalo and/or Lake William Hovell) or supplementing with groundwater. The outcome
of this investigation will be considered in assessing supply augmentation options for the Wangaratta urban
supply system. North East Water will work with DSE and other stakeholders in the review of the supply
augmentation options in the Wangaratta region.
The operating rules for Harrietville changed as part of the Drought Response Plan review. The rules were
originally based on the stream flow gauge located downstream of Harrietville at Bright, which proved non-
representative of conditions upstream at Harrietville during the drought. The new rules are based on stream
flows at a gauge nearer to the Harrietville offtake which have been determined to be more suitable and are
based on the Bulk Entitlement for Harrietville. These more robust rules will assist with implementation of
more timely and reliable drought actions at Harrietville in the future.
5.8.2 Benefits
This approach would provide improved reliability of supply and in some cases an improvement in potable
water quality. Connecting systems with pipelines, for example Goorambat, would eliminate the need for the
upgrade of a small water treatment plant that would not provide economies of scale. Off-stream storages,
filled during high stream flow periods provide a more reliable supply and reduce the risk of restrictions during
the summer months and groundwater supplies provide an alternative supply that may be accessed as
required.
Water carting to smaller systems provides the greatest flexibility to respond as required, however is expensive
and energy intensive on a unit (ML) basis.
5.8.3 Constraints
The main constraints of supplying water from secure water sources is the high capital cost of the infrastructure
required and energy cost to pump the water over distance and uphill. Pipelines are less viable over long
distances and for small volumes, and where water has to be pumped to a higher elevation. Off-stream
storages require suitable sites and availability land for the project. If a storage needs to be constructed
downstream of the delivery system then connecting pipelines are still required and pumping costs increase.
The uncertainty associated with the yield and quality of groundwater supplies requires broad exploration and
poses a significant financial risk.
5.8.4 Non-viable options
Pipeline from Lake William Hovell or Lake Buffalo to Wangaratta
This option has been postponed in the short-term and medium term on the grounds that the cost is
unacceptably high compared to other options to augment Wangaratta’s supply.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 66
6 Implementing the Strategy
North East Water and its customers have made significant progress in the last five years towards achieving a
balance between supply and demand. Implementation of demand management and supply enhancement
approaches recommended in this WSDS will ensure North East Water is well positioned to maintain a balance
between the demand for water in urban supply systems and available supply now and into the future.
North East Water will continue to improve the efficiency of its water supply systems (Delivery System
Performance approach) and will work with customers to manage demand and reduce the risk of customers
reverting back to high water use behaviour (Demand Management approach). North East Water’s One
Resource approach has been used to identify existing and potential alternative water use across the region,
and will continue to be applied to take a holistic approach to water resource management.
The Victorian water market is a very effective method for balancing supply and demand in North East Water’s
communities supplied by the regulated River Murray system and North East Water will continue to purchase
additional entitlement through the water trading market to cater for future growth and to manage the annual
variation in demand (Using Water Markets approach). The volumetric summary for the Using Water Markets
approach, detailed in Table 23, indicates that only an additional 113 ML of water entitlement is required by
2060 for communities supplied by the River Murray based on the forecast growth and usage assumptions.
This sum does not include the benefits from wastewater return flow credits or utilising carryover which
provide additional access to water.
The Secure Water Source approach will be implemented in accordance with North East Water’s supply
augmentation principles (refer to Section 5.3.3). A supply augmentation for Goorambat is under consideration
for inclusion in Water Plan 3 (2014 - 2018) and augmentation investigations will be conducted for Wangaratta,
Corryong and Harrietville.
The demand management options are not system specific and will in general be applicable to all systems. As
such demand management options have been assessed in a generic manner with a qualitative analysis of the
identified demand management options. It is also noted that the take up of many of demand management
initiatives is customer driven (i.e. dependent on customer attitudes and behaviour). For example installation
of water efficient appliances and rain water tanks.
The application, or priority, of options within each approach across North East Water’s 21 water supply
systems is presented in Table 22. A volumetric summary of demand savings or additional supply required to
achieve a balance between supply and demand across North East Water’s region over a 50-year planning
horizon is shown in Table 23.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 67
Table 22: Application/Priority of options to meet the Levels of Service
Ap
pro
ach
Ref Option
Be
ech
wo
rth
Be
llbri
dge
Be
nal
la
Bri
ght
Co
rryo
ng
Dar
tmo
uth
Eskd
ale
Go
ora
mb
at
Har
rie
tvill
e
Mt
Be
auty
Mo
yhu
Myr
tle
ford
Oxl
ey
Talla
nga
tta
Wah
gun
yah
/
Ru
the
rgle
n
Wal
wa
Wan
gara
tta
Wh
itfi
eld
Wo
do
nga
Yac
kan
dan
dah
Yar
raw
on
ga
DSP-1 Delivery System Water Audits
DSP-2 Headworks Water Management
DSP-3 Leakage Control
DSP-4Annual Meter Verification
Program
DSP-5Zoned Metering and Pressure
Reduction
DM-1Customer Education – Provision
of advice and information
DM-2
Incentives for Water
Conservation Devices and
Efficient Appliances
DM-3
Customer (non-residential)
Water Conservation and
Demand Reduction
DM-4
Customer (local government)
Water Conservation and
Demand Reduction
DM-5 Pricing
DM-6 Regulation – Water Restrictions
DM-7 Innovative Technology
OR-1
Use One Resource approach for
Supply Augmentations
assessments
OR-2Populated One Resource
Frameworks
OR-3Sustainability assessment of
One Resource Frameworks
Dem
and
Man
agem
ent
On
e R
eso
urc
eD
eliv
ery
Syst
em
Per
form
ance
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 68
Ap
pro
ach
Ref Option
Be
ech
wo
rth
Be
llbri
dge
Be
nal
la
Bri
ght
Co
rryo
ng
Dar
tmo
uth
Eskd
ale
Go
ora
mb
at
Har
rie
tvill
e
Mt
Be
auty
Mo
yhu
Myr
tle
ford
Oxl
ey
Talla
nga
tta
Wah
gun
yah
/
Ru
the
rgle
n
Wal
wa
Wan
gara
tta
Wh
itfi
eld
Wo
do
nga
Yac
kan
dan
dah
Yar
raw
on
ga
UWM-1Regulated Supply - Bulk
Entitlement
UWM-2Unregulated Supply - Bulk
Entitlement
UWM-3Unregulated Supply –
Groundwater Licence
UWM-4 Carryover
UWM-5 Wastewater Return Flow credits
UWM-6 Urban Water Trading Scheme
SWS-1aGoorambat supply augmented
with pipeline from Devenish
SWS-1bGoorambat supply augmented
with additional groundwater
SWS-1cGoorambat supply
supplemented with water carting
SWS-2aWangaratta supply augmented
with off-stream storage
SWS-2bWangaratta supply augmented
with groundwater
SWS-3aHarrietvil le supply augmented
with off-stream storage
SWS-3bHarrietvil le supply augmented
with groundwater
SWS-3cHarrietvil le supply
supplemented with water carting
SWS-4aCorryong supply augmented with
off-stream storage
SWS-4bCorryong supply augmented with
groundwater
Usi
ng
Wat
er M
arke
tsSe
cure
Wat
er S
ou
rce
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 69
Table 23: Region-wide volumetric summary of supply, demand and opportunities to achieve a balance
1 NOTE: Yield from unregulated rivers at North East Water’s agreed level of service was indeterminate because reliability is fixed by available streamflow, and is
independent of the level of demand. The supply-demand balance has been assessed using estimates of reliability of supply rather than yield.
2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060 2010 2030 2060
Beechworth 424 469 527 1,073 1,059 1,064 0 0 0 43 0 30 0 0 73
Benal la 1,369 1,479 1,618 2,555 2,469 2,341 0 0 0 104 0 8 0 0 112
Bright 613 708 783 798 828 726 0 0 57 175 0 1 0 0 176
Corryong 275 277 279 282 248 217 0 29 62 31 0 23 0 31 85
Dartmouth 24 24 25 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 5
Goorambat 19 19 20 9 9 10 0 0 0 0 20 20
Harrietvi l le 61 63 65 0 0 6 6 0 0 0 6 12
Mt Beauty 315 326 337 627 627 627 0 0 0 59 0 10 0 0 69
Moyhu 28 29 30 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1
Myrtleford 549 569 596 802 741 677 0 0 0 30 0 13 0 0 43
Oxley 88 100 115 0 0 0 42 0 1 0 0 43
Walwa 17 17 17 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3
Wangaratta 3,203 3,409 3,657 0 0 65 183 0 237 0 65 485
Whitfield 15 15 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Yackandandah 119 130 145 205 205 205 0 0 0 7 0 18 0 0 25
Bel lbridge 52 74 91 0 0 0 0
Eskdale 8 8 8 0 0 0 0
Tal langatta 586 645 719 14 0 0 0
Wahgunyah/
Rutherglen185 191 194 45 0 0 0
Wodonga 5,499 6,423 7,511 376 0 320 0
Yarrawonga 1,384 1,855 2,458 147 0 169 0
Total 14,833 16,830 19,210 17,230 17,765 16,123 9 38 908 1,271 0 830 113 122 2,336
Approaches to balance Supply and Demand (ML/yr)
Delivery
System
Performance
Demand
Management
One
Resource
Using
Water
Markets
Secure
Water
Source
Total
Indeterminate1
System
Unrestricted Average Annual Demand
(ML/yr)
Yield under median Climate Change
Scenario (ML/yr)
Nominal Additional Water or Savings
Required (ML/yr)
Insufficient data
Insufficient data
Indeterminate 1
Indeterminate 1
Insufficient data
Indeterminate 1
Indeterminate 1
10,888 11,588 10,266 0 0 708 113 1,184
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 70
7 Stakeholder engagement
North East Water’s WSDS has been developed in consultation with the community and its Board. The North
East Water project team has driven the development of the WSDS and sought input from the community and
Board at key stages. Community input was used to finalise the agreed and minimum levels of service, which
will be subsequently used to inform supply augmentation and capital investment requirements for
consideration in North East Water’s next Water Plan (2014-2018). Specific detail on engagements activities is
provided below.
The North East Water Water Plan 3 Reference Group was a key community group that was involved
throughout the development of the strategy. During this time, the Reference Group has:
Gained an understanding of the purpose of the WSDS and approach taken for its development.
Gained an understanding of the current level of service (reliability of supply) of North East Water’s
21 water supply systems and investment required to deliver the agreed level of service.
Provided positive feedback on the minimum and agreed levels of service.
Other mechanisms that North East Water has used to gain input from stakeholders include:
Engaging with each local council to develop the Alternative Water Atlas component of the WSDS. This
involved meeting with senior staff from Alpine Shire, Benalla Rural City, City of Wodonga, Indigo Shire,
Moira Shire, Towong Shire and Rural City of Wangaratta.
Obtaining positive feedback from local councils on forecast growth rates for each of their relevant
communities.
Presenting an overview of the WSDS development process and reliability of supply (level of service)
modelling results for Benalla to the Benalla Rotary Club. This was conducted as part of North East
Water’s community engagement during National Water Week and it provided an insight to the
community’s level of service expectations, as identified by that segment of the Benalla community.
Obtaining feedback from DSE on the draft WSDS prior to seeking public comment.
Obtaining public comment on the draft WSDS after announcing the release of the draft WSDS in local
media and making it available on the North East Water website during February 2012.
Presenting the draft WSDS to North East Water’s Yackandandah Community Reference Group.
North East Water’s Board has provided oversight to the development of the WSDS in conjunction with the
development of North East Water’s capital program for Water Plan 3. The Board has provided input to the
development of the WSDS though a workshop and regular Board and Board sub-committee meetings.
The final WSDS was issued to the Honourable Peter Walsh MP, Minister for Water, for noting in March 2012.
North East Water would like to acknowledge the Project Team and Water Plan 3 Reference Group for their
contribution and feedback throughout the development of the strategy. Project team and Water Plan 3
Reference Group members are acknowledged in Appendix 1.
In the future, North East Water will engage with communities affected by supply augmentations approved in
the next Water Plan. This approach is consistent with our current stakeholder engagement process.
Engagement will span from the options assessment through to the delivery of the augmentation.
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Page 71
8 References
Department of Natural Resources and Environment (1998) Ministerial Guidelines for Developing and
Implementing a Drought Response Plan
Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD), State Government of Victoria, 2011,
Melbourne, Victoria, viewed 11 July 2011, < http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/publications-and-
research/urban-and-regional-research/Regional-Victoria/towns-in-time>.
Department of Planning and Community Development (DPCD), State Government of Victoria, 2011,
Melbourne, Victoria, viewed 11 July 2011, < http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/publications-and-
research/urban-and-regional-research/metropolitan/victoria-in-future-2008/2009-urban-and-regional-forums-
victoria-in-future-2008-population-projections>.
Department of Sustainability and Environment (DSE), State Government of Victoria, 2011, Northern Region
Sustainable Water Strategy, Melbourne November 2009
Erlanger, P. and Neal, B. (2005) Framework for Urban Water Resource Planning. Water Services Association of
Australia Occasional Paper No. 14 – June 2005.
Goulburn-Broken Catchment Management Authority (GBCMA) (2005) Regional River Health Strategy 2005-
2015. Goulburn Broken Catchment Management Authority, Shepparton.
Holling, C.S. (1978) Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management.
MDBA (2010) Guide to the Basin Plan.
MDBA (2011) Proposed Basin Plan.
North East Catchment Management Authority (NECMA) (2006) North East Regional River Health Strategy.
Summary Document, April 2006.
North East Water (2007) Water Supply Demand Strategy.
North East Water (2011) Drought Response Plan.
North East Water (2007) Water Plan 2008 – 2013.
Podger, G.M., Barma, D., Neal, B., Austin, K. and Murrihy, E. (2010) River System Modelling for the Basin Plan.
Assessment of fitness for purpose. Report to the Murray Darling Basin Authority by CSIRO, Barma Water
Resources and SKM.
SKM (2009) Combined impact of the 2003 and 2006/07 bushfires on streamflow. Broadscale assessment. V1.
July 2009.
Turner, A., Willets, J., Fane, S., Giurco, D., Chong, J., Kazagalis, A., and White, S. (2010) Guide to demand
management and integrated resource planning for urban water. Prepared by the Institute for Sustainable
Futures, University of Technology Sydney for the National Water Commission and the Water Services
Association of Australia.
Van Dijk, A.J.M, Kirby, M., Paydar, Z., Podger, G., Mainuddin, M., Marvanek, S. and Peña Arancibia, J. (2008).
Uncertainty in river modelling across the Murray-Darling Basin. A report to the Australian Government from
the CSIRO MDBSY, CSIRO Australia. 89pp.
Victorian Liberal Nationals Coalition (2010) Victorian Liberal Nationals Coalition Plan for Water
Victorian Water Industry Association (2005) Victorian Uniform Drought Water Restriction Guidelines. Final.
Victorian Water Industry Association (2011) Victorian Uniform Water Restriction and Permanent Water Saving Rule Guidelines - Outcome of the Review of Victoria’s Approach to Water Restrictions and Permanent Water Saving Rules. Position Paper. FINAL. 23/09/2011
Water Supply Demand Strategy 2012
Appendix 1: Project Team and Water Plan 3 Reference Group
North East Water Project Team
Business Unit Member Position
Corporate Services Ascher Derwent One Resource Project Officer
Corporate Services Dr Tim Clune Manager Sustainability and Risk
Customer and Financial Services John Morris Manager Customer and Community
Customer and Financial Services Michael Sinclair Contract Services Officer
Customer and Financial Services Naomi Laauli Acting Manager Customer Service
Customer and Financial Services Nicholas Moore Manager Finance
Operations Alister Laidlaw Water Systems Coordinator
Operations Jason Mullins Systems Improvement Manager
Planning and Infrastructure Charlie Bird Senior Engineer – Strategic Planning
Planning and Infrastructure Kevin Freeman Executive Manager Planning and Infrastructure
Planning and Infrastructure Les Ryan Manager Strategy and Development
Water Plan 3 Reference Group
Member Community
Frank Burfitt Reference Group Chair – North East Water Board of Directors
Steve Bird North East Water Board of Directors
Neil Ward Chiltern – Indigo Shire region
Rosie Scott Yarrawonga – Moira Shire region
Dr John Charles Yarrawonga – Moira Shire region
Ben Fryer Wodonga – City of Wodonga region
Michelle Cowan Wodonga – City of Wodonga region
Geoff Dinning Wangaratta – Rural City of Wangaratta
Grant Jones Wangaratta – Rural City of Wangaratta
Jim Bates Bright – Alpine Shire Council region
Cr Peter Davis Benalla – Rural City of Benalla region
Mark Chadwick Major Industry representation