water theme plenary - john langford
TRANSCRIPT
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1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Vo
lum
e (G
L)
Capacity of Major Storages
Total Capacity, including
farm dams
Average Annual Flow of All Rivers
Average Natural Flow to the Sea
Increasing Diversions
Total storage 1.5 times average annual flow of all rivers
Storage capacity and diversions in the MDB
Gross Value & Water Use Gross Value & Water Use 1996/97 – 2005/061996/97 – 2005/06
EnterpriseEnterprise % Gross Value% Gross Value % % Water UseWater Use
VegetablesVegetables 12%12%2%2%
Fruit & NutsFruit & Nuts 20%20% 5%5% GrapesGrapes 16%16% 7%7% DairyDairy 20%20% 17%17% CottonCotton 17%17% 20%20% RiceRice 6%6% 16%16% Other CerealsOther Cereals 2%2% 10%10% PasturePasture 3%3% 17%17%
Methods used for timing irrigations in Methods used for timing irrigations in the Murray-Darling Basin in 2006-07the Murray-Darling Basin in 2006-07
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Soil moisturemeasuring tools
Calendar based Weather forecast Evporation pan data Consultantrecommendation
Evapotranspirationestimate
Diary
Broadacre
Horticulutre
MDB
Data source: ABARE 2009;Langford et al., 2011. Global Environmental Change
Divertible and developed Divertible and developed water resources in 1995-96 water resources in 1995-96
(GL)(GL)
Number of months per year with rainfall above the 90th percentile (updated to July 2010). Percentiles are based on the 20th century (1900-1999) climatology and are
computed month by month.
15 Years Without a Wet Month
Acknowledgement: Bertrand Timbal (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research)
Timbal, Greenhouse 2007
Intensification of STR appears to be linked to Global Warming
High likelihood that current rainfall deficit is at least partly linked to current global warming through intensification of the STR.
Timbal et al SEACI Final Project Reports 1.1.2 (2007) and 1.5.1 (2009) (on SEACI website)
Intensity of the STR and Global Warming(11-years running means)
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-0.80
-0.60
-0.40
-0.20
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
Central Year
Pres
sure
in h
Pa
-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6
Deg
ree
(in C
elsi
us)
STR Intensity annual mean
Global Annual TemperatureRecent SEACI GCM model results (& with downscaling) show similar relationship (but smaller trends) only if include natural and anthropogenic forcings
Water prices are extremely volatile …
Source: Watermove
Goulburn-Broken: Pool price vs volume traded
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21/1
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17/0
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/200
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3/20
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/200
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/200
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27/0
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16/0
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/200
2
$/M
L
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ML
Pool Price $
Volume Traded (ML)
Goulburn Allocations
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2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Allo
cati
on
(%
)
Recent trends in water markets (I): Water moves to South Australia
Very little entitlement trade – all allocation … give statistic
Australian Water Markets Report 2007-08, National Water Commission
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/89
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/90
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/09
Milk production in Northern Victoria (/10)
% of Water allocation in Goulburn
Water Allocation & Milk Production
Potential costs and benefits of adjusting Potential costs and benefits of adjusting the reserve policy (conceptual)the reserve policy (conceptual)
3/6/2008
200
Probability
Febr
uary
Allo
catio
n %
100806040200
20
40
60
100
80
Historical Reliability
Possible future reliability
Adjustments
to reliability
Reduced allocationCost of reduced allocations
Benefit of increased allocations
Reserve policyReserve policy
Retail Allocation Bank Retail Allocation Bank AccountAccount
DDesigned to give individuals esigned to give individuals opportunities to manage their own opportunities to manage their own
reliability of supplyreliability of supply
Allocation Bank Account (ABA) =Allocation Bank Account (ABA) = Current seasonal allocation +/-Current seasonal allocation +/- Water purchases or sales +/-Water purchases or sales +/- Carry over/drawdown of storageCarry over/drawdown of storage Accept risk of carry over spillingAccept risk of carry over spilling
Flow
Smart Water Supply ChainsSmart Water Supply Chains
• Greater return on $2bn investment in modernisation
• Increased farm productivity with less water
• Tuned to environmental needs
• Pricing, policy and markets to promote innovation and choice
• World class demonstrator of 21st century farm and landscape management at Dookie
• Open innovation underpinned by global standards and systems e.g. AWRIS
Interoperable open-architecture ICT platforms and standards
Dams and reservoirs
River systems Main channels Distribution systems
On-farm
Distributed sensing,and supply/demand
forecasting
Distributedclosed-loop control
Climate and Runoff
The Way ForwardThe Way Forward Market led not infrastructure led!Market led not infrastructure led! Refocus infrastructure renewal on improving Refocus infrastructure renewal on improving
level of service for irrigatorslevel of service for irrigators Innovation in water products & servicesInnovation in water products & services Provide information and demonstration of on Provide information and demonstration of on
farm technology - work on uptakefarm technology - work on uptake Research to better define environmental Research to better define environmental
objectives & water needsobjectives & water needs Creation of smart water supply chainsCreation of smart water supply chains Evaluate the social and economic impacts after Evaluate the social and economic impacts after
these innovations are in placethese innovations are in place