water theme plenary - john langford

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Page 1: Water theme plenary - John Langford

                    

                  

Page 2: Water theme plenary - John Langford

0

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1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Vo

lum

e (G

L)

Capacity of Major Storages

Total Capacity, including

farm dams

Average Annual Flow of All Rivers

Average Natural Flow to the Sea

Increasing Diversions

Total storage 1.5 times average annual flow of all rivers

Storage capacity and diversions in the MDB

Page 3: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Gross Value & Water Use Gross Value & Water Use 1996/97 – 2005/061996/97 – 2005/06

EnterpriseEnterprise % Gross Value% Gross Value % % Water UseWater Use

VegetablesVegetables 12%12%2%2%

Fruit & NutsFruit & Nuts 20%20% 5%5% GrapesGrapes 16%16% 7%7% DairyDairy 20%20% 17%17% CottonCotton 17%17% 20%20% RiceRice 6%6% 16%16% Other CerealsOther Cereals 2%2% 10%10% PasturePasture 3%3% 17%17%

Page 4: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Methods used for timing irrigations in Methods used for timing irrigations in the Murray-Darling Basin in 2006-07the Murray-Darling Basin in 2006-07

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Soil moisturemeasuring tools

Calendar based Weather forecast Evporation pan data Consultantrecommendation

Evapotranspirationestimate

Diary

Broadacre

Horticulutre

MDB

Data source: ABARE 2009;Langford et al., 2011. Global Environmental Change

Page 5: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Divertible and developed Divertible and developed water resources in 1995-96 water resources in 1995-96

(GL)(GL)

Page 6: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Number of months per year with rainfall above the 90th percentile (updated to July 2010). Percentiles are based on the 20th century (1900-1999) climatology and are

computed month by month.

15 Years Without a Wet Month

Acknowledgement: Bertrand Timbal (Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research)

Page 7: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Timbal, Greenhouse 2007

Intensification of STR appears to be linked to Global Warming

High likelihood that current rainfall deficit is at least partly linked to current global warming through intensification of the STR.

Timbal et al SEACI Final Project Reports 1.1.2 (2007) and 1.5.1 (2009) (on SEACI website)

Intensity of the STR and Global Warming(11-years running means)

-1.00

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

Central Year

Pres

sure

in h

Pa

-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.00.10.20.30.40.50.6

Deg

ree

(in C

elsi

us)

STR Intensity annual mean

Global Annual TemperatureRecent SEACI GCM model results (& with downscaling) show similar relationship (but smaller trends) only if include natural and anthropogenic forcings

Page 8: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Water prices are extremely volatile …

Source: Watermove

Goulburn-Broken: Pool price vs volume traded

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2/05

/200

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12/1

1/20

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30/1

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18/0

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8/07

/200

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22/0

5/20

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4/10

/200

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28/0

2/20

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17/0

1/20

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22/1

1/20

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10/1

1/20

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30/0

8/20

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5/03

/200

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22/0

3/20

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2/08

/200

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21/1

2/20

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11/0

9/20

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/200

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/200

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/200

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/200

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/200

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17/0

6/20

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5/06

/200

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25/0

3/20

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2/12

/200

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31/1

2/20

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13/1

1/20

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10/0

2/20

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21/0

8/20

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22/0

5/20

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4/10

/200

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27/0

2/20

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16/0

1/20

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28/1

1/20

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17/1

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/200

2

$/M

L

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ML

Pool Price $

Volume Traded (ML)

Goulburn Allocations

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2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09

Allo

cati

on

(%

)

Page 9: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Recent trends in water markets (I): Water moves to South Australia

Very little entitlement trade – all allocation … give statistic

Australian Water Markets Report 2007-08, National Water Commission

Page 10: Water theme plenary - John Langford

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1988

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Milk production in Northern Victoria (/10)

% of Water allocation in Goulburn

Water Allocation & Milk Production

Page 11: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Potential costs and benefits of adjusting Potential costs and benefits of adjusting the reserve policy (conceptual)the reserve policy (conceptual)

3/6/2008

200

Probability

Febr

uary

Allo

catio

n %

100806040200

20

40

60

100

80

Historical Reliability

Possible future reliability

Adjustments

to reliability

Reduced allocationCost of reduced allocations

Benefit of increased allocations

Reserve policyReserve policy

Page 12: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Retail Allocation Bank Retail Allocation Bank AccountAccount

DDesigned to give individuals esigned to give individuals opportunities to manage their own opportunities to manage their own

reliability of supplyreliability of supply

Allocation Bank Account (ABA) =Allocation Bank Account (ABA) = Current seasonal allocation +/-Current seasonal allocation +/- Water purchases or sales +/-Water purchases or sales +/- Carry over/drawdown of storageCarry over/drawdown of storage Accept risk of carry over spillingAccept risk of carry over spilling

Page 13: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Flow

Page 14: Water theme plenary - John Langford

Smart Water Supply ChainsSmart Water Supply Chains

• Greater return on $2bn investment in modernisation

• Increased farm productivity with less water

• Tuned to environmental needs

• Pricing, policy and markets to promote innovation and choice

• World class demonstrator of 21st century farm and landscape management at Dookie

• Open innovation underpinned by global standards and systems e.g. AWRIS

Interoperable open-architecture ICT platforms and standards

Dams and reservoirs

River systems Main channels Distribution systems

On-farm

Distributed sensing,and supply/demand

forecasting

Distributedclosed-loop control

Climate and Runoff

Page 15: Water theme plenary - John Langford

The Way ForwardThe Way Forward Market led not infrastructure led!Market led not infrastructure led! Refocus infrastructure renewal on improving Refocus infrastructure renewal on improving

level of service for irrigatorslevel of service for irrigators Innovation in water products & servicesInnovation in water products & services Provide information and demonstration of on Provide information and demonstration of on

farm technology - work on uptakefarm technology - work on uptake Research to better define environmental Research to better define environmental

objectives & water needsobjectives & water needs Creation of smart water supply chainsCreation of smart water supply chains Evaluate the social and economic impacts after Evaluate the social and economic impacts after

these innovations are in placethese innovations are in place