water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink by jim kelley

Water, Water Water, Water Everywhere,Everywhere,

Nor Any Drop Nor Any Drop to Drinkto Drink

byby

Jim KelleyJim Kelley

Humanity’s Top Ten Humanity’s Top Ten ProblemsProblems

for next 50 years for next 50 years

2004 6.5 Billion People2050 ~ 10 Billion People

Richard SmalleyRichard Smalley(1943-2005)(1943-2005)1996 Nobel 1996 Nobel Laureate in Laureate in ChemistryChemistry

Rice UniversityRice University

1.1. ENERGYENERGY2.2. WATERWATER3.3. FOODFOOD4.4. ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT 5.5. POVERTYPOVERTY6.6. TERRORISM & WARTERRORISM & WAR7.7. DISEASEDISEASE8.8. EDUCATIONEDUCATION9.9. DEMOCRACYDEMOCRACY10.10. POPULATIONPOPULATION

04/19/2304/19/23 jim kelleyjim kelley

It Is Helpful to Think of Water as PowerIt Is Helpful to Think of Water as Power


Consider the Commodities Consider the Commodities Which Have Shaped Human Which Have Shaped Human

History.History.

Once it was SaltOnce it was SaltLater it was SpicesLater it was Spices

Today it is OilToday it is OilIn the Future it will be Fresh WaterIn the Future it will be Fresh Water


Salt Has Long Been an Important Commodity


Salt Is ASalt Is ACommodity ThatCommodity That

Has Shaped Has Shaped GlobalGlobal

Commerce andCommerce and Politics From Politics From The Earliest The Earliest

TimesTimes


Timbuktu Salt CaravanTimbuktu Salt Caravan


Mohandas GandhiMohandas GandhiLed the 25 DayLed the 25 Day

Salt March, Salt March, Ending at Dandi onEnding at Dandi on

5 April, 1930, 5 April, 1930, Where He Publically Where He Publically Violated British LawViolated British Law

By Picking up a By Picking up a Piece of SaltPiece of Salt

And Starting a And Starting a National MovementNational Movement


By the Middle Ages.By the Middle Ages.Spices Began to Spices Began to

Drive Global PoliticsDrive Global Politics


Spice Market--Morocco


Marco Polo HelpedMarco Polo HelpedVenice Rise to Venice Rise to Dominance withDominance with

Its Control of the Its Control of the Spice RoutesSpice Routes

Polo’s Trip toPolo’s Trip toCathay--1274-1291Cathay--1274-1291


Spice Routes


By the Fifteenth Century, The Ottoman Empire Had Taken Control of the Spice Routes

Portugal

Ottoman EmpireIn the 16th Century


This LedThis LedPrince Henry Prince Henry The NavigatorThe Navigator

To SendTo SendPortuguese Explorers Portuguese Explorers

Around Africa Around Africa To the Spice Islands, To the Spice Islands,

ChangingChangingThe Map of The Map of the Worldthe World


Bartolomeu Dias Sailed toThe Cape of Good Hope,

1487-1488


Vasco da Gama Sailed toCalicut in 1497-1499


For HundredsFor HundredsOf Years,Of Years,Salt and Salt and

Other Spices,Other Spices,EspeciallyEspeciallyPepper,Pepper, DroveDroveGlobal Global

CommerceCommerce


In the 19In the 19thth Century, Coal Began Century, Coal BeganTo Drive Global PoliticsTo Drive Global Politics

Through the Industrial Revolution Through the Industrial Revolution

James Watt’sJames Watt’sSteam EngineSteam Engine


Today, of course, Petroleum DrivesToday, of course, Petroleum DrivesInternational Trade and Global PoliticsInternational Trade and Global Politics


Santa Barbara Channel


So, After Salt, Spices, and Oil, So, After Salt, Spices, and Oil, What Will be the NextWhat Will be the Next

Commodity to Drive Global Politics?Commodity to Drive Global Politics?

It Will Almost Certainly BeIt Will Almost Certainly BeFresh WaterFresh Water

So, Let’s Look at Water…So, Let’s Look at Water…

04/19/23 jim kelley


But Even With All But Even With All this Waterthis Water

We Still Have We Still Have Inadequate Supplies Inadequate Supplies of Safe Fresh Waterof Safe Fresh Water


Total WaterSalt Salt WaterWater

97% of the 97% of the Earth’s Earth’s Water isWater is

Salt WaterSalt Water


Even TakingEven TakingOnly the Fresh Only the Fresh Water PortionWater PortionTotal Total

Fresh WaterFresh Water


Total Fresh WaterIce

68.7%

Deep GroundwaterAnd Soil Moisture

30.1%

Available Available Fresh WaterFresh Water~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Equal toEqual to1% of Total 1% of Total Fresh Water,Fresh Water,

OrOr~0.007% ~0.007%

of All Waterof All Wateron Earthon Earth


Of the Of the 6.7 Billion 6.7 Billion People in People in the Worldthe World


2.6 Billion2.6 Billion(40%) (40%) LackLack

Basic Basic SanitationSanitation


And 1 BillionAnd 1 BillionUseUse

Unsafe Unsafe DrinkingDrinking

WaterWater


There Are Many PlacesThere Are Many PlacesIn the World Where theIn the World Where theDemand for Fresh WaterDemand for Fresh Water

Is Already Producing IntenseIs Already Producing IntenseRe-Adjustment of PoliticalRe-Adjustment of Political

PrioritiesPriorities--Let’s Look at Three--Let’s Look at Three


MediterraneanSea

Israel

SyriaLebanon

Jordan

Nearly AllNearly AllOf Israel’sOf Israel’s

Water ComesWater ComesFrom theFrom the

Jordan RiverJordan RiverAnd Two Large And Two Large

AquifersAquifers

West Bank(1967)

Golan Heights(1967)

Gaza Strip

Aquifers


Pakistan

India

Afghanistan

The IndusThe IndusRiver ProvidesRiver Provides

Nearly AllNearly AllThe Agricultural The Agricultural Water to PakistanWater to Pakistan--Its Headwaters--Its HeadwatersAre in KashmirAre in Kashmir


Baglihar Dam


““This [issue…is] inextricably linked to the This [issue…is] inextricably linked to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute.Jammu and Kashmir dispute.Unless this issue is settled …the matter of Unless this issue is settled …the matter of normalization of relations between Indianormalization of relations between IndiaAnd Pakistan would remain a pipedream.”And Pakistan would remain a pipedream.”

Pakistan Observer, 20 Oct. 2008Pakistan Observer, 20 Oct. 2008

The Baglihar Hydropower The Baglihar Hydropower Project, was inauguratedProject, was inaugurated by Indian Prime Ministerby Indian Prime MinisterMahmohan Singh on Mahmohan Singh on 17 October, 200817 October, 2008


Beijing

Hangzhou

Nanjing

The 1200-Mile Long The 1200-Mile Long Grand Canal, Completed Grand Canal, Completed During The Sui DynastyDuring The Sui Dynasty

(581–618 AD), Will Soon be(581–618 AD), Will Soon beJoined by Two New Joined by Two New

North-South WaterwaysNorth-South Waterways


In China, Most of the Water is in the South

Danjiangkou

Shijiazhuang

Beijing

Hangzhou?

?

Western Routes


Now Let’s LookNow Let’s LookA Bit Closer to HomeA Bit Closer to Home


MajorMajorJohn Wesley PowellJohn Wesley Powell

(1834-1902)(1834-1902)


““The Arid Region is the The Arid Region is the great Rocky Mountains great Rocky Mountains Region Of the United Region Of the United

States, and it embraces States, and it embraces more than four-tenthsmore than four-tenths

of the country, of the country, excluding Alaska. excluding Alaska.

In all this region theIn all this region themean annual rainfall mean annual rainfall

is insufficient is insufficient for agriculturefor agriculture””

John Wesley PowellJohn Wesley Powellp. 15, Emphasis added15, Emphasis added


Average Annual Precipitation

100th Meridian 20” Isohyet


Settled Areas1880

Of course, at the time of Powell’s Report, Most of the Population Lived in the East


The Current Drought as of 22 July, 2008


Many droughts will Many droughts will occur, many seasonsoccur, many seasons

in a long series will bein a long series will be fruitless; and it mayfruitless; and it maybe doubted whether,be doubted whether,

on the whole, agricultureon the whole, agriculturewill prove remunerative.will prove remunerative.

--John Wesley Powell--John Wesley Powell

Arid Lands Report, p. 13Arid Lands Report, p. 13


22 March--6 April 2007


San Francisco Chronicle 31 October, 2008


Record of Drought in the West

In a In a Comprehensive Comprehensive 2004 Study of 2004 Study of

Western Western Drought, Drought, Ed Cook of Ed Cook of

Lamont Lamont (Columbia U.) (Columbia U.) and Colleaguesand Colleagues

Studied Studied Records Records

from Across the from Across the ““Arid Lands”Arid Lands”

Examining 286 Examining 286 2.5’ x 2.5’2.5’ x 2.5’Grid PointsGrid Points


220 yr 140 yr

800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

100

80

60

40

20

0

Drier

Wetter

Historical Period

Cook, (Lamont) et al., Science, 5 Nov. 2004

Record of Drought in the West%

Dro

ug

ht

Are

a


1000AD 1500AD 2000AD1000AD 1500AD 2000ADTem

pera

ture

Ch

an

ge º

CTem

pera

ture

Ch

an

ge º

C

MedievalWarm Period

Little Ice Age

Figure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelFigure 22 in the Intergovernmental PanelOn Climate Change Report Climate Change, 1995On Climate Change Report Climate Change, 1995

11

00

-1-1

History of Temperature in Europe


Public--11%, Domestic--<1%

Irrigation—34%Livestock--<1%

Thermal Power Generation—48%

Industrial—5%

Extractive Uses Extractive Uses Of Water in the Of Water in the United StatesUnited States

in 2000in 2000 --USGS--USGS


So What Can We Do About It?So What Can We Do About It?

We Can Develop Two ResourcesWe Can Develop Two ResourcesWhich We Have in Abundance;Which We Have in Abundance;Salt Water and Solar Energy…Salt Water and Solar Energy…

And Develop Them TogetherAnd Develop Them Together


First A Look at Desalination First A Look at Desalination Of Seawater and Brackish WaterOf Seawater and Brackish Water


“If we could ever competitively—at a cheap rate—get fresh water from salt water, that would be in the

long-range interest of humanity, and would really dwarf any other scientific accomplishment.”

--John F. Kennedy, April 12, 1961

Global Installed Desalination Capacity50

40

30

20

10

0

Cap

aci

ty (

Mill

ion

m3/d

ay)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


San Francisco Uses AboutSan Francisco Uses About100 Million Gallons of Water per Day100 Million Gallons of Water per Day

This is About 300 Acre-Feet per DayThis is About 300 Acre-Feet per DayOr About 380,000 cubic meters per dayOr About 380,000 cubic meters per day

So Let’s Define So Let’s Define 380,000 cubic meters/day380,000 cubic meters/day

As 1 SFUAs 1 SFU






40

30

20

10

0

Cap

aci

ty (

Mill

ion

m3/d

ay)

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

1000 SFU






40

30

20

10

0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

40

30

20

10

0

Cap

aci

ty

(Thousa

nd

acr

e-f

eet/

day)


Primer on DesalinationPrimer on Desalination

There a Basically Two Types ofThere a Basically Two Types ofDesalination Methods Desalination Methods

1. Thermal Techniques1. Thermal Techniques 2. Membrane Techniques2. Membrane Techniques


Thermal Techniques involve distillation of Thermal Techniques involve distillation of fresh water from saline water. These methods require fresh water from saline water. These methods require

a large amount of energy as heata large amount of energy as heat

There are several methods. The most commonly used are:There are several methods. The most commonly used are:

1. Multistage Flash Distillation: Involves several1. Multistage Flash Distillation: Involves several evaporation stages in which pressure is evaporation stages in which pressure is

relieved to produce flash evaporationrelieved to produce flash evaporation

Saudi Arabia


2. Multi-Effect Distillation (MED): Involves several Multi-Effect Distillation (MED): Involves several stages (effects) of boiling saline water each using stages (effects) of boiling saline water each using waste heat from the preceding stagewaste heat from the preceding stage

Bahrain


Membrane Techniques Involve Forcing Brine UnderMembrane Techniques Involve Forcing Brine UnderPressure Through an Osmotic Membrane toPressure Through an Osmotic Membrane to Remove Salt and Other Large MoleculesRemove Salt and Other Large MoleculesThe Most Commonly used Method is Reverse Osmosis The Most Commonly used Method is Reverse Osmosis which Requires Energy to Pressurize the Brinewhich Requires Energy to Pressurize the Brine

Ashkelon Ashkelon Desalination Desalination Plant, IsraelPlant, Israel


Membrane Techniques areCapturing an Increasing Share

Worldwide Installed CapacityMillions of Cubic Meters per Day

70605040302010 0

1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15

Membrane

Thermal

1000 SFU


It Is Useful to Compare It Is Useful to Compare thethe

True Costs of True Costs of Transported WaterTransported WaterWith Desalinated With Desalinated

SeawaterSeawater

kWh/kgal 2 4 6 8 10

Colorado River Aqueduct

California Water Project

Seawater Reverse Osmosis

Affordable Desalination Collaborative, 27 March, 2008Affordable Desalination Collaborative, 27 March, 2008

More ThanHalf of

SouthernCalifornia’s

Water


It Is Useful to Compare theTrue Costs of Transported

WaterWith Desalinated Seawater

Colorado River Aqueduct

California Water Project

Seawater Reverse Osmosis

Affordable Desalination Collaborative, 27 March, 2008

More ThanHalf of

SouthernCalifornia’s

Water

kWh/m3 0.4 0,8 1.2 1.8 2.0


The Affordable Desalination Collaboration (ADC) is a non-profit organizationcomprised of the following group of leading companies, state and government agencies:

•California Department of Water Resources•California Energy Commission•Corollo Engineers•City of Santa Cruz Water Department•Energy Recovery, Inc.•FilmTec corporation•GE Zenon•Hydranautics—A Nitto Denko Company•Koch Membranes•Metropolitan Water District of Southern California•Naval Facilities Engineering Service Center•Pentair Water Treatment—Code Line Division•Poseidon Resources•Sandia National Laboratories•Toray Membranes•U. S. Bureau of Reclamation•West Basin Municipal Water District


We CurrentlyWe CurrentlyHave 21 Have 21

DesalinationDesalinationPlants Proposed Plants Proposed

Or ApprovedOr ApprovedIn CaliforniaIn California Approved,

6 August, 2008


BCDC, 2005

Several SitesSeveral SitesHave been under Have been under Consideration Consideration For DesalinationFor DesalinationPlants in the Plants in the Bay AreaBay Area


SEC, IPO for Energy Recovery, Inc.SEC, IPO for Energy Recovery, Inc.San Leandro, CA, 24 March, 2008San Leandro, CA, 24 March, 2008

2006 Installed Capacity and Projected (2015) Installed CapacityOf Desalination Plants by Country

2005 Capacity 2050 Projected Capacity

20

15

10

5

0Capaci

ty (

Mill

ion m

3/d

ay)

Saudi UAE USA China Spain Algeria Japan Aust. Libya Qatar India Arabia

3000 SFU


And The Final And The Final Piece of the PuzzlePiece of the Puzzle……How to Power AllHow to Power AllThis DesalinationThis Desalination

World Energy World Energy Millions of Barrels per Day (Oil Equivalent)

300

200

100

01860 1900 1940 1980 2020 2060 2100

Source: John F. Bookout (President of Shell USA) ,“Two Centuries of Fossil Fuel Energy” International Geological Congress, Washington DC; July 10,1985. Episodes, vol 12, 257-262 (1989).

R. E. Smalley Rice University

The Energy Revolution (The Terawatt Challenge)

30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day

R. E. Smalley Rice University

2004 2050

OilCoa

lGas

Fiss

ion

Biom

ass

Hyd

roel

ectric

Sola

r, W

ind,

Geo

ther

mal

OilCoa

lGas

Fiss

ion

Biom

ass

Hyd

roel

ectric

Sola

r, W

ind,

Geo

ther

mal

%

50

40

30

20

10

0

%

50

40

30

20

10

0

14.5 Terawatts

220 M BOE/day

Solar Cell Land Area Requirements

6 Boxes at 3.3 TW Each = 20 TWNate Lewis Cal. Tech


In California we have two things in abundance:In California we have two things in abundance: 1. Salt water 1. Salt water

2. Sunshine 2. Sunshine

We Need More Water We Need More Water

Water is EnergyWater is EnergyFossil fuel costs continue to riseFossil fuel costs continue to rise

Solar energy cost continues to fallSolar energy cost continues to fallDesalination is becoming cheaper than transported waterDesalination is becoming cheaper than transported water

Conclusion:Conclusion:We should be developing solar as fast as possibleWe should be developing solar as fast as possible

We should use solar for desalinationWe should use solar for desalination


Perhaps Not Surprising, Solar Radiation is Related to Aridity


40

30

20

10

0

Capaci

ty (

Mill

ions

m3/d

ay

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Installed Desalination Capacity in the Middle East-North Africa (MENA)

Region and Worldwide

Worldwide

MENA

1000 SFU


At This Time, Less ThanAt This Time, Less Than0.2% of Desalination is0.2% of Desalination is

Done Directly WithDone Directly WithSolar EnergySolar Energy


Spain’s Planned Teatro de Aqua Solar Deslanation Plant Las Palmas, Canary Islands


Teatro de Aqua in the Harbor of Las Palmas


Summary:Summary:

There is not enough water in the WestThere is not enough water in the West

Population growth will continue to increase demand;Population growth will continue to increase demand;conservation can only help a littleconservation can only help a little

An obvious source of new water is available: An obvious source of new water is available: DesalinationDesalination

Solar power is one of only two substitutes for fossil fuelsSolar power is one of only two substitutes for fossil fuelsand the technology is improving rapidlyand the technology is improving rapidly

Solar desalination is becoming cheaper and more practicalSolar desalination is becoming cheaper and more practical


““You can’t solve a problem with You can’t solve a problem with the same thinking that created it.”the same thinking that created it.”

Albert Einstein Albert Einstein


And There Is a Nice SymmetryAnd There Is a Nice SymmetrySolar Desalination Started with Salt ProductionSolar Desalination Started with Salt Production

and Will End with Water Productionand Will End with Water Production

We Used to Keep the Salt; Now We’ll Keep the WaterWe Used to Keep the Salt; Now We’ll Keep the Water


Thank YouThank You

water, water everywhere, nor any drop to drink by jim kelley

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