water year 2013: current conditions and early season outlook in the colorado river basin crfs...
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Water Year 2013: Current Conditions and
Early Season Outlook in the Colorado River Basin
CRFS November 14, 2012
Water Year 2013:Entering the Season (what we know now):
Coming off one of worst runoff years - Soil Moisture (not good) - Baseflow (not good)ENSO Neutral Conditions (no help)
October:Another dry month- Upper Green River Basin near normal
November:Not great so far…
CBRFC Model Soil Moisture11/1/12
USGS Monthly Average StreamflowOctober 2012(includes regulated flows)
Base flows
East River at Almont, COAnimas River at Durango, CO
Yampa River at Steamboat Springs, COGreen at Warren Bridge, WY
OCTNOV
DEC JAN FE
BMAR
APRMAY
JUN JU
LAUG SE
POCT
NOVDEC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Lake PowellUnregulated Monthly Inflow
WY 2002WY 2012
KAF
Regulated Flows
ForecastVolumes
ENSO Neutral
Sources: cpc.ncep.noaa.gov and iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO
CPC Forecasts (10/18)
Nov. 13, 20125 Day Precipitation TotalGage/Radar Mosaic
Nov. 13, 20127 Day Precipitation Percent Normal
November 13, 2012
% Current Average
% Seasonal Peak
Upper Green 72 7
Yampa/White 58 7
Duchesne 113 15
Upper Colorado 54 7
Gunnison 58 8
Dolores 63 7
San Juan 70 10
November Precipitation Forecasts
Early Season ESP
10/15/2
012
10/17/2
012
10/19/2
012
10/21/2
012
10/23/2
012
10/25/2
012
10/27/2
012
10/29/2
012
10/31/2
012
11/2/2
012
11/4/2
012
11/6/2
012
11/8/2
012
11/10/2
012
11/12/2
0120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Flaming Gorge WY2013Apr-Jul ESP Volume Forecasts
5 day QPF 90%0 day QPF 90%
ESP RUN DATE
KAF
Early Season ESP
10/15/2
012
10/17/2
012
10/19/2
012
10/21/2
012
10/23/2
012
10/25/2
012
10/27/2
012
10/29/2
012
10/31/2
012
11/2/2
012
11/4/2
012
11/6/2
012
11/8/2
012
11/10/2
012
11/12/2
0120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Blue MesaWY2013Apr-Jul ESP Volume Forecasts
5 day QPF 90%0 day QPF 90%
ESP RUN DATE
KAF
Early Season ESP
10/15/2
012
10/17/2
012
10/19/2
012
10/21/2
012
10/23/2
012
10/25/2
012
10/27/2
012
10/29/2
012
10/31/2
012
11/2/2
012
11/4/2
012
11/6/2
012
11/8/2
012
11/10/2
012
11/12/2
0120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Lake Powell WY2013Apr-Jul ESP Volume Forecasts
5 day QPF 90%0 day QPF 90%
ESP RUN DATE
KAF