waternsw water operations report · • fluctuations in river flows due to investigation works for...

WaterNSW

Water Operations Report

Macquarie-Cudgegong

30 November 2017

Dam Storages

WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report 30 November 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Burrendong Dam Storage

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Dam Storages

30 November 2017 WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%Windamere Dam Storage

2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18

Supplementary Access

No supplementary events in the Macquarie - Cudgegong since the

start of 2017/18.

30 November 2017WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report

2017/18 Water

Availability for Macquarie

No additional AWD has been announced since 14 August

2017.

Of 124,623 ML of Usage: Lic Env usage 68,227ML and

Irri GS usage 56,396 ML

General Security Available Water Determination

Date AWD ML/Share Total %

1-Jul-17 0.36 36%

14-Aug-17 0.02 38%


Licence Category

Water Availability as of 1st

Nov 2017

Sum of

Share

Component

Sum of

Account

Balance

Sum of

Available

Water

Sum of

AWD Vol

Sum of

Carryover

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignment

s

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

Out

Sum of

Usage

DOMESTIC AND STOCK 4,307 4,043 3,911 4,307 0 0 0 264

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [DOMESTIC] 787 785 785 785 0 0 0 0

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [STOCK] 170 156 156 170 0 0 0 14

LOCAL WATER UTILITY 16,205 12,853 11,971 16,205 0 0 0 3,352

REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) 613,181 553,447 545,020 232,931 445,614 104,593 102,336 124,623

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) 8,416 6,234 5,538 8,416 0 25 549 1,658

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [RESEARCH] 4,044 3,531 3,531 4,044 0 0 0 513

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [TOWN WATER

SUPPLY] 40 40 40 40 0 0 0 0

SUPPLEMENTARY WATER 48,687 48,685 48,685 48,687 -1 9,080 9,080 0

GRAND TOTAL 695,837 629,774 619,638 315,585 445,613 113,698 111,964 130,424

2017/18 Water

Availability for Cudgegong

General Security Available Water Determination

Date AWD ML/Share Total %

1-Jul-17 0.36 36%

14-Aug-17 0.02 38%


Licence Category

Water Availability as of 1st

Nov 2017

Sum of

Share

Component

Sum of

Account

Balance

Sum of

Available

Water

Sum of

AWD Vol

Sum of

Carryover

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

In

Sum of

Allocation

Assignments

Out

Sum of

Usage

DOMESTIC AND STOCK 672 381 380 672 0 0 0 291

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [DOMESTIC] 19 16 16 16 0 0 0 0

DOMESTIC AND STOCK [STOCK] 15 15 15 15 0 0 0 0

LOCAL WATER UTILITY 2,600 2,035 1,993 2,600 0 0 0 565

REGULATED RIVER (GENERAL SECURITY) 19,285 33,788 33,681 7,328 29,029 14 1,404 1,037

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) 5,412 4,883 4,880 5,412 0 0 343 186

REGULATED RIVER (HIGH SECURITY) [RESEARCH] 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 1

SUPPLEMENTARY WATER 1,312 1,312 1,312 1,248 0 0 0 0

GRAND TOTAL 29,316 42,429 42,278 17,291 29,029 14 1,747 2,080

Current Resources

Breakdown

30 Nov 2017 WaterNSW Macquarie-Cudgegong Water Ops Report

112

127

22

21

93

271

36

429

Macquarie - Cudgegong Resource Assessment Breakdown (GL) - 1 November 2017

Environmental General Security

Planned Environmental Water

High Security

Towns, S&D

Evap from Storage

ops Losses

Inaccessible Storage

Irrigation general Security

Total 1,111 GL

Resource Assessment


Macq Cudge Resource Assessment -

Burrendong Dam1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Feb-17 1-May-17 1-Jun-17 1-Aug-17 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 1-Oct-17 1-Nov-17

Planning Horizon (drought sequence)Sept 16 – Jun

18

Oct 16 – Jun

18

Feb 17 – May

18

May 17- May

18

Jun 17- May

18

Aug 17- May

18

Aug 17- May

19

Sep 17- May

19

Oct 17- May

19

Nov 17- May

19

AWD Announcement Date 1-Sep-16 1-Oct-16 1-Jul-17 1-Jul-17 1-Aug-17 1-Sep-17 1-Oct-17 1-Nov-17 1-Dec-17

Min Inflow SequenceOct 16 – Jun

18

Oct 16 – Jun

18

Feb 17 – May

18Jul 17- May 18

Jul 17- May

18

Aug 17- May

18Sep 17- May 19

Oct 17 - May

19

Nov 17 - May

19

Dec 17 - May

19

GL

Opening storage volume 967 1501 1125 1044 1042 1035 1035 974 910 826

Plus volume available through Bulk Water

Transfer39 0 71 81 81 81 62 62 62 62

Plus minimum expected inflow sequence over

planning horizon443+101 101 26 21 21 18 130 96 89 43

Less amount of dead storage -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34 -34

Less evaporation allowance -147.6 -128 - 94 -57 -53 -55 -103 -104 -98 -93

Less remaining essential requirements -314 -304 - 215 -199 -199 -187 -346 -331 -318 -314

Less unallocated storage volume -220 -364 - 192 -266 -285 -4 -4 -2 -1 -2

Less volume remaining in irrigator accounts -433.4 -439 - 376 -330 -313 -472 -480 -460 -474 -429

Less volume remaining in environmental

accounts-215 -333 - 311 -260 -260 -365 -370 -338 -276 -239

Amount available for allocation (+ve) /

Amount of inflow required before new allocation

can be made (-ve)

186 0 16 -110 -137 -140 -180

Allocation % = ~23% alloc Alloc Reset 2 % alloc

6 Month Rainfall and Inflow


24 Month Rainfall and Inflow


Inflows are consistent with rainfall

over the past 6 month period. Actual

inflows for last 6 months were only

22 GL which is nearly equal to 99th

percentile inflows.

Inflows are consistent with rainfall over the past 12 months. Actual inflows for the last12 months were around 168GL. Most of the inflows were up to end of April17 and the percentile was equal to 50% condition. However, from May 17 the condition were drier and only 22GL of inflows were recorded. The cumulative inflows turned out to be less than than 80th percentile for rest of the year.

Rainfall and Inflow (dam)


0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Burrendong Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Burrendong Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

Inflows are consistent with rainfall

over the past 6 months. Actual

inflows for the last 6 months were

around 200ML which is equal to 99%

inflow conditions.

Dry condition throughout has

resulted in very less inflows into

Windamere dam. Over the past 12

month period the actual inflow were

only 4.5 GL which is just better than

99% inflow conditions.

Rainfall and Inflow (dam)


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Windamere Dam - 6 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Infl

ow

Vo

lum

e (

GL

)

Windamere Dam - 12 month inflows/statistical inflows

99 percentie

80 percentile

50 percentile

20 percentile

Actual Inflow

Operational Loss

Operational loss is water above that which could reasonably be expected to pass the

last extraction point on each given river/creek being supplied with regulated flow

(dam releases and controlled tributary inflows – not supplementary flows)


Macquarie Cumulative TotalsSales +

Environmental

delivery

(Excluding

Supplemantary)

Operational

SurplusActual Target

July 7,170 705 10% 5%July-Aug 37,066 1,383 4% 5%July-Sep 94,229 2,073 2% 5%July-Oct 189,139 4,307 2% 5%July-Nov 0% 5%July-Dec 0% 5%July-Jan 0% 5%July-Feb 0% 5%July-Mar 0% 5%July-Apr 0% 5%July-May 0% 5%July-Jun 0% 5%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

July July-Aug

July-Sep

July-Oct

July-Nov

July-Dec

July-Jan

July-Feb

July-Mar

July-Apr

July-May

July-Jun

Op

era

tio

na

l S

urp

lus

/ S

ale

s (

%)

Macquarie River - Water Delivery Operational Surplus Vs Sales - 2017-18 Cumulative %

(regulated licenced and discretionary env. flow delivery is included in sales)

Target 5%

Storage Forecast


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Jul-1

5

Jul-1

5

Aug-1

5

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

De

c-1

5

Jan-1

6

Feb

-16

Ma

r-1

6

Apr-

16

Ma

y-1

6

Jun-1

6

Jul-1

6

Aug-1

6

Sep-1

6

Oct-

16

No

v-1

6

De

c-1

6

Jan-1

7

Feb

-17

Ma

r-1

7

Apr-

17

Ma

y-1

7

Jun-1

7

Jul-1

7

Aug-1

7

Sep-1

7

Oct-

17

No

v-1

7

De

c-1

7

Jan-1

8

Feb

-18

Ma

r-1

8

Apr-

18

Ma

y-1

8

Jun-1

8

En

d o

f M

on

th S

tora

ge

Le

ve

l in

%

Period

Burrendong Dam Forecast Storage Levels(assessment done end of Oct 2017)

Actual

Dry 80% COE

Median 50%COEWet 20% COE

Minimum99% COE

• Plan to deliver about 400GL of Licenced water in 2017-18

• The first round of watering for the summer crop has ended.

• Second round would probably start around 3rd week of Nov

• About 135GL has been delivered to Marshes from both licenced and EWA allocations in 2017-18.

• Next Delivery of S&D flows will likely to be in Autumn 2018

• Minimal operational shortfalls and Ops losses planned

• Water Order Debiting will be applied to licence holders with a history of over-ordering. Please see fact sheet


System Operations Plan

http://www.waternsw.com.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0006/122685/Water-order-debiting_rev3.pdf

System Outage Plan

Dam maintenance impacting supply

• Planned outage – none.

• Fluctuations in river flows due to investigation works for

reinstating Cold Water Pollution temperature curtain.

Weirs


Regulators



PrognosisChances Of Improvement

The chances of improved General Security allocation, based on different

inflow scenarios are as follows:

Potential Inflow Conditions Macquarie

Total General Security AWD (%)

1-Feb-17 1-July-18

Dry

(80% inflows: 4

chances in 5)

38% and carry over

from 2016-17

38% and carry over from

2016-17

Average(50% inflows: 1

chances in 2)38% and carry over

from 2016-17

48% and carry over from

2016-17

Wet(20% inflows: 1

chances in 5)48% and remaining

carryover from 2016-17

100% and remaining

carryover from 2016-17


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