wave data key generic findings march 2010
TRANSCRIPT
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GenericsGenericsand Generic Pricingand Generic Pricing
Charles Joynson
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Topics to be coveredTopics to be covered
• Data Sources• Price Decay• Price Bounces• Seasonality• Generic Company Strategy• Generic Data• Exchange Rate• Brand Equalisation• Retail vs. Dispensing• Forecasting• Evergreening
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Data SourcesData Sources
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Internet Suppliers
Generic Manufacturers
Wholesalers
Ethical Manufacturers
Importers
Dispensing GPs
RetailPharmacy
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Price DecayPrice Decay
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Feb-0
3
Mar
-03
Apr-0
3
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug-0
3
Sep-0
3
Oct-03
Nov-0
3
Dec-0
3
Jan-
04
Feb-0
4
Mar
-04
Apr-0
4
May
-04
Jun-
04
Jul-0
4
Aug-0
4
Sep-0
4
Oct-04
Nov-0
4
Dec-0
4
Jan-
05
Feb-0
5
Mar
-05
Apr-0
5
May
-05
Jun-
05
Jul-0
5
Aug-0
5
Month
£
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Other ProductsOther Products
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Price BouncesPrice Bounces
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Monthly Average PercentAmoxicillin Caps 250mg 21
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Aug
-00
Dec
-00
Apr
-01
Aug
-01
Dec
-01
Apr
-02
Aug
-02
Dec
-02
Apr
-03
Aug
-03
Dec
-03
Apr
-04
Aug
-04
Dec
-04
Apr
-05
Aug
-05
Dec
-05
Apr
-06
Aug
-06
Dec
-06
Month
%
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SeasonalitySeasonality
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Seasonality - OmeprazoleSeasonality - Omeprazole
Oct 02- Sep 06
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Seasonality - CiprofloxacinSeasonality - Ciprofloxacin
Jan 03 – Dec 05
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Seasonality - LevothyroxineSeasonality - Levothyroxine
Levothyroxine Tabs 100mcg 28
0.9000
0.9200
0.9400
0.9600
0.9800
1.0000
1.0200
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Oct 00-Sep 06
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Seasonality - AtenololSeasonality - Atenolol
Atenolol Tabs 50mg 28
0.90000.92000.94000.96000.98001.00001.02001.04001.06001.08001.1000
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Oct 00-Sep 06
Jan 01- Dec 05
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Seasonality - SimvastatinSeasonality - Simvastatin
Simvastatin Tabs 80mg 28
0.9600
0.9800
1.0000
1.0200
1.0400
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Oct 03-Sep 06
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Seasonality - LisinoprilSeasonality - Lisinopril
Lisinopril Tabs 5mg 28
0.9000
0.9200
0.9400
0.9600
0.9800
1.0000
1.0200
1.0400
1.0600
January
Febru
ary
Marc
h
April
May
June
July
August
Septe
mber
Octo
ber
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
Jan 01 – Dec 05
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Generic Company StrategyGeneric Company Strategy
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Growth in numbers of manufacturers
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Month after generic launch
%
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Generic DataGeneric Data
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Exchange RateExchange Rate
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Brand EqualisationBrand Equalisation
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Retail vs. DispensingRetail vs. Dispensing
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ForecastingForecasting
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How do companies forecast How do companies forecast generic prices?generic prices?
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Some just react to market Some just react to market changeschanges
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Fitting trends to pricesFitting trends to prices
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But reality was differentBut reality was different
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Same Therapeutic CatSame Therapeutic CatSelective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
Month after launch
Citalopram Tabs 20mg28Paroxetine Tabs 20mg30
Same TherapeuticCategory,
But DifferentDecay Rates
Selective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
Month after launch
Citalopram Tabs 20mg 28
Paroxetine Tabs 20mg 30
Selective Serotonin Re-Uptake Inhibitors
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Same Market ValueSame Market Value£450 - £550 000
Months after launch
Quinapril Tabs 10mg 28
Nicardipine Caps 20mg 56
Same Value,But DifferentDecay Rates
£450,000 - £550,000
£450 - £550 000
Months after launch
Quinapril Tabs 10mg 28
Nicardipine Caps 20mg 56
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Same moleculeSame moleculeOne Molecule But NO Uniformity!
Fluconazole Caps 150mg 1
Fluconazole Caps 200mg 7
Fluconazole Caps 50mg 7
Same MoleculeBut
No Uniformity
One Molecule But NO Uniformity!
Fluconazole Caps 150mg 1
Fluconazole Caps 200mg 7
Fluconazole Caps 50mg 7
Fluconazole Caps
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PatternsPatterns & Relationships& Relationships
£ ?Generic Price
Volume
Market Share
Value
Brand Generic Spilt
No of Manufacturers
Reimbursement
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Statisticians found each Statisticians found each product can be modelledproduct can be modelled
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
Sep-0
0
Mar
-01
Sep-0
1
Mar
-02
Sep-0
2
Mar
-03
Sep-0
3
Mar
-04
Sep-0
4
Mar
-05
Sep-0
5
Mar
-06
Simvastatin Tabs10mg 28
Predicted
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0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
May-0
2Sep
-02
Jan-
03May
-03
Sep-0
3Ja
n-04
May-0
4Sep
-04
Jan-
05May
-05
Sep-0
5Ja
n-06
Omeprazole Caps 40mg 7
Predicted
Multiple models were produced,Multiple models were produced,one for each productone for each product
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Jun-
04
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec
-04
Feb-05
Apr-0
5
Jun-
05
Aug-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec
-05
Feb-06
Apr-0
6
A1002
Predicted
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Mar
-02
Jul-0
2
Nov
-02
Mar
-03
Jul-0
3
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar
-06
A1021
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-0
4
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1010
Predicted
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1011
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9A
ug-0
0
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1012
Predicted
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov
-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar-06
A1013
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ma
r-0
2
Ju
n-0
2
Se
p-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ju
n-0
3
Se
p-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Se
p-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ju
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
A1014
Predicted
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1015
Predicted
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0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
May-0
2Sep
-02
Jan-
03May
-03
Sep-0
3Ja
n-04
May-0
4Sep
-04
Jan-
05May
-05
Sep-0
5Ja
n-06
Omeprazole Caps 40mg 7
Predicted
Each with its own formulaEach with its own formula
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
Jun-
04
Aug-0
4
Oct-0
4
Dec
-04
Feb-05
Apr-0
5
Jun-
05
Aug-0
5
Oct-0
5
Dec
-05
Feb-06
Apr-0
6
A1002
Predicted
0.000
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
Mar
-02
Jul-0
2
Nov
-02
Mar
-03
Jul-0
3
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar
-06
A1021
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep-0
4
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1010
Predicted
0.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
Jan-
04
Mar
-04
May
-04
Jul-0
4
Sep
-04
Nov
-04
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep
-05
Nov
-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
A1011
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9A
ug-0
0
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1012
Predicted
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
Mar-02
Jul-02
Nov
-02
Mar-03
Jul-03
Nov
-03
Mar-04
Jul-04
Nov
-04
Mar-05
Jul-05
Nov
-05
Mar-06
A1013
Predicted
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ma
r-0
2
Ju
n-0
2
Se
p-0
2
De
c-0
2
Ma
r-0
3
Ju
n-0
3
Se
p-0
3
De
c-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ju
n-0
4
Se
p-0
4
De
c-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ju
n-0
5
Se
p-0
5
De
c-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
A1014
Predicted
0.000
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
Dec-0
0
Apr-
01
Aug-0
1
Dec-0
1
Apr-
02
Aug-0
2
Dec-0
2
Apr-
03
Aug-0
3
Dec-0
3
Apr-
04
Aug-0
4
Dec-0
4
Apr-
05
Aug-0
5
Dec-0
5
Apr-
06
A1015
Predicted
![Page 69: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
Statistical ModelsStatistical Models
• 2005, 2007 & 2008
• Linear dynamic models
• One for ourselves and two for clients
![Page 70: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
![Page 71: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
![Page 72: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
![Page 73: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
EvergreeningEvergreening
![Page 74: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
![Page 75: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
![Page 76: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
![Page 77: Wave Data Key Generic Findings March 2010](https://reader034.vdocuments.net/reader034/viewer/2022051516/55a4901f1a28abb93e8b4706/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
Many ThanksMany Thanks