27/11/2019

Dr Jannik Giesekam

Research Fellow in Industrial Climate Policy

University of Leeds

We need a net-zero built environment roadmap

slides available from www.jannikgiesekam.co.uk

www.creds.ac.uk

Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS)

Multi-disciplinary centre, funded by EPSRC and ESRC - £19m over 5 years.

Paris = net zero

Explained carbon figures & trends (Infrastructure Carbon Review, Green Construction Board Low Carbon Routemap, CCC scenarios etc.)

Guidance on managing capital carbon

Challenges & opportunities

Last time I was here...

Building on the Paris AgreementThe role of low carbon construction in the UK

Dr Jannik Giesekam@jannikgiesekam

Research Fellow in Energy, Materials and Climate Policy University of Leeds

29/11/16Institution of Civil Engineers These slides are available from www.jannikgiesekam.co.uk/research

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Cap (22%) Op (78%)Low Carbon Routemap for the Built Environment (2012)

Domestic Non-domestic

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Energy Supply Transport Business Residential Agriculture Waste

UK territorial accounts (2012)

Manufactured goods & construction

Home heating & private car travel Electricity Transport

services Other servicesFuels, materials, water & waste

Agriculture & food

UK carbon footprint (2012)

Cap Op (29%) Use (70%)Infrastructure Carbon Review (2010)

Energy

Transport Water Telecoms

Energy Transport

Greenhouse gas emissions (MtCO2e)

Remaining emissions in CCC 2050 net zero scenario

Territorial basisConsumption basis

The challengeA snapshot of UK greenhouse gas emissions (MtCO2e)

Slide 14 of 27UK’s carbon footprint published by DEFRA (1997-2013) based on CIEMAP data

» Priorities are energy and transport

» However long term targets require reductions everywhere, including CapCarb

slides still available from www.jannikgiesekam.co.uk

2013 plan to achieve 80% emissions reduction by 2050 across UK built environment

Considered operational carbon and capital carbon

Considered KPIs, policies, and actions

Included report, infographics, and interactive model

Last updated in 2015

GCB Low Carbon Routemap

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UK Built Environment

OperationalNon-Domestic

CapitalCarbon

OperationalDomestic

Existing

New

Existing

Existing

209

OperationalInfrastructure

New

10%

10%

10%

3m2

2

5m 2/ household

/ household

/ household

50%

17.5°

MeanTemperature

PVPanels

10mPV

Panels

Heat Delivery

Heat Delivery Easy

Retrofits

HardRetrofits

Heat Delivery

TransportationCarbon Intensity

Site Efficiency

CCS in Materials

Sector

Metals Industry Efficiency

Concrete Industry Efficiency

Brick Industry Efficiency

PlasticIndustry Efficiency

Glass Industry Efficiency

Materials Efficiency By Design

CO2

Growth ofInfrastructure

Spending

C+DLandfill Waste

46%Gas Boiler

41%Heat

Pumps

7%District Heating

6%Resistive Heating

Water Use

LightingUse

LightingTechnology Energy

Savings

PerformanceGap

5%

90%

49%

5%

100%

43%

31%

61%

30%

15%

89%

PerformanceGap

Technologies v Best Practice

Technology Improvement v 2010 Best

SolarThermal

70%

95%

50%

25%

20%

HeatDelivery

CoolingDelivery

CoolingDelivery

51 % Gas Boiler

24%Heat Pumps

10%DistrictHeating

100% Air Conditioning

15%ResistiveHeating

100% AirConditioning

30%Gas Boiler

55%Heat

Pumps10%

District Heating

5%Resistive Heating

35%Gas Boiler

36%Heat

Pumps

15%DistrictHeating

14%Resistive Heating

50%

20%

20%

20%

Draught Proofing3,378 K Hard18,337 K Easy

HomesSuper Glazing3,180 K Hard17,262 K Easy

Homes Cavity Wall Insulation2,541 K Hard1,729 K Easy

Homes Floor Insulation1,599 K Hard8,682 K Easy

Homes Loft Insulation1,190 K Hard5,900 K Easy

Homes Solid Wall Insulation1,074 K Hard 5829 K Easy

Homes

2.3%

50%

70%

of potential

of potential

LightingTechnology Energy

Savings

Compound Annual

Carbon Emissions in the UK Built EnvironmentAchieving 80% Reduction by 2050

Baseline 1990 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2e)

Interventions and Assumptions for Emissions Reductions

2050 Carbon Dioxide Emissions (MtCO2e)

Operational Non-Domestic includes heating, cooling, ventilation, hot water, and lighting and excludes cooking, other appliances, and plug loads.

Operational Domestic includes heating, cooling, ventilation, hot water, and lighting and excludes cooking, other appliances, and plug loads.

Operational infrastructure includes emissions from water/wastewater, outdoor lighting and construction and demolition (C&D) waste treatment, and excludes emissions from use of infrastructure by vehicles.

Capital carbon includes direct process emissions and indirect emissions from the manufacture and production of UK and imported constructionmaterials and products, emissions from the transport of materials, emissions associated with professional services in support of construction, and all C&D work on site.

Carbon emission sources coveredLegend

This infographic is based on the Green Construction Board’s Low Carbon Routemap for the Built Environment. Development of the Routemap was managed by WRAP, working in collaboration with Arup and the Climate Centre. The carbon emission sources included in the analysis and theirvalues are based on the Routemap. For more information visit www.greenconstructionboard.org. For each input, absolute values in 2050 are provided, unless followed by a to denote a percentage increase between 2010 and 2050 or a to denote a decrease.

Submetering+Commissioning

Lighting+Controls

HeatRecovery

VoltageOptimization

Glazing G-Values

GlazingU-Values

SolidsU-Values

Report and tool at www.greenconstructionboard.org/index.php/resources/routemap

Progress in reducing emissions

Why we need a net zero built environment roadmap now

What this roadmap should include & facilitate

This time...

UK greenhouse gas emissions & targets

Territorial emissions & carbon footprint from 2019 official statistics to 2017 and 2016 respectively.Others from CCC (2019) Net Zero. The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming & 2019 Annual Progress Report to

Parliament; DBEIS Energy and emissions projections and last Green Construction Board Low Carbon Routemap update (2017).

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MtC

O2e

Least cost pathway from CCC 5th Carbon Budget advice

Legislated Carbon Budgets (5 year periods)

Carbon footprint of UK consumption

UK territorial emissions

DBEIS Reference Scenario

Buildings sector (CCC)

capital carbon

Built environment (GCB)

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794

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43 4988

784

861

Residual emissions in CCC net zero scenario 88

CCC net zero scenario

Figure 6.5 from CCC (2019) Net Zero. The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming

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1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

MtC

O2e

Least cost pathway from CCC 5th Carbon Budget advice

Legislated Carbon Budgets (5 year periods)

Carbon footprint of UK consumption

UK territorial emissions

DBEIS Reference Scenario

Buildings sector (CCC)

capital carbon

Built environment (GCB)

460

794

106

225

184

43 4988

784

861

Residual emissions in CCC net zero scenario 88

208 Net Zero - The UK’s contribution to stopping global warming | Committee on Climate Change

that the National Farmers’ Union has stated an ambition to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2040.

In order to deliver removals sustainably and at lowest cost, it will be necessary to have a suitable governance framework and policy that enables their development and deployment. Policy will need to support development and deployment of removals, by providing financial incentives, CO₂ transport and storage infrastructure to enable deployment of BECCS and DACCS, and innovation support (see section 2(c)).

Figure 6.5. Greenhouse gas removals required to balance positive emissions in 2050

Source: CCC analysis. Notes: Sectoral emissions and contributions from removals presented for the Further Ambition scenario. The contribution from 'additional removals/abatement' refers to the options to go beyond the Further Ambition scenario and achieve net-zero emissions, which can be done with additional removals and/or further reductions of positive emissions (see Chapter 5).

5. Implications for policy made in Scotland, Wales and Northern IrelandDelivering extensive decarbonisation by 2050 in the UK will require a strong policy framework at both UK and devolved level. Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland have (fully or partially) devolved powers in a number of areas relevant to emissions reduction. These vary by administration, but key areas include planning, demand-side transport measures, energy efficiency, agriculture, land use and waste (Box 6.5).

Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish policies are essential in the areas where powers are largely devolved:

• Demand-side transport measures. Devolved administrations must implement effectivepolicies to provide low-carbon public transport and encourage active travel.

• Buildings energy efficiency. Meeting the earliest possible date for net-zero emissions willrequire major improvements to the energy efficiency of new and existing buildings, in order

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Residual positive emissions Removals

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Additional removals/abatementDirect air capture of CO₂ & storageBioenergy with CCS (BECCS)Wood in construction

ShippingF-gasesTransportNon-BECCS power/H₂ BuildingsWasteIndustryLand use and AgricultureAviation

Is now the time to align targets?

Figures from Giesekam et al. (2018) Aligning carbon targets for construction with (inter)national climate change mitigation commitments & UKGBC (2017) Delivering low carbon infrastructure

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Scope 1 & 2Scope 1, 2 & 3Reductions plus offset

Company targets

Baseline yearYear by which target is to be achieved

© Crossrail Ltd | John Zammit

INFRASTRUCTURE CLIENT CARBON TARGETS

Figure 5 shows the scale and the timeframes of the operational, capital and whole life carbon targets that have been set by the surveyed clients, alongside other publicly available carbon targets from other clients and projects.

Most of the targets are set to be achieved by the year 2020. This ‘cliff edge’ shows that short-term rather than long-term targets are being set, despite the requirement for an 80% reduction in UK emissions by 2050.

Some clients are setting qualitative targets that focus on minimising carbon footprints and using tools to minimise carbon, for example collecting more accurate carbon data on all projects, in order to set targets in the future.

Of those clients interviewed, the majority have been setting carbon targets for more than five years, which suggests it is a well-established process. Further, most organisations are using their own datasets as baselines, which indicates a level of maturity in addressing their emissions.

1990 2050 2000 2010 2020 2040 2030

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Baseline year

Year by whichthe target needs to

be achieved

Figure 5. Publicly available client infrastructure carbon targets

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Carbon reduction targets of selected UK housebuilders & construction firms (representing turnover of £88.4bn in 2016) - based on July 2017 review

Carbon reduction targets of selected infrastructure clients

Since May 2019:

Architects Declare: 715 practices

Building Services Engineers: 63 practices

Civil Engineers: 62 practices

Structural Engineers: 120 practices

Architecture Education Declares: 2075 signatories

Range of commitments such as to: “include life cycle costing, whole life carbon modelling and post occupancy evaluation as part of the basic scope of work, to reduce both embodied and operational resource use”; and to “accelerate the shift to low embodied carbon materials in all work”.

Construction Declares

number of signatories accurate as of 04/11/19

Launched in September 2019, includes:

• Development of net zero carbon pathways by end of 2020 for new & existing buildings including embodied carbon of development, refurbishment and fit-out works

• Annual disclosure of progress against pathways

• Development of guidance for property owners that ensures consistency

• Development of climate change resilience strategies by 2022

23 signatories have >£300bn of real estate assets & >11,000 properties under management

BBP Climate Change Commitment

more info at www.betterbuildingspartnership.co.uk/member-climate-change-commitment

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BBP CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT SIGNATORIES

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BBP CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT SIGNATORIES

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BBP CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT SIGNATORIES

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BBP CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT SIGNATORIES

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BBP CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT SIGNATORIES

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BBP CLIMATE CHANGE COMMITMENT SIGNATORIES

Launched in October 2019, includes:

1. Reduce operational energy demand by at least 75%, before UK offsetting

2. Reduce embodied carbon by at least 50-70%, before UK offsetting

3. Reduce potable water use by at least 40%

4. Achieve all core health and wellbeing targets

RIBA 2030 climate challenge

RIBA (2019) 2030 Climate Challenge

RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge 1

Sign up to take the RIBA2030 Climate Challenge atwww.architecture.com/2030challenge

R I B A 2 0 3 0C L I M AT EC H A L L E N G E

RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge 3

RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge target metrics for all buildings

Best Practice Health Metrics ReferencesOverheating 25-28 °C maximum for 1% of occupied hours CIBCE TM52, CIBSE TM59

Daylighting > 2% av. daylight factor, 0.4 uniformity CIBSE LG10

CO2 levels < 900 ppm CIBSE TM40

Total VOCs < 0.3 mg/m3) Approved Document F

Formaldehyde < 0.1 mg/m3) BREEAM

RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge Targets

5 Further guidance can be found in the RIBA Sustainable Outcomes Guide (November 2019) 6 Buildings Mission 2030: Background Report to Recommendations from the Green Construction Board in response to the 2030 Buildings Mission (2019)

RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge target metrics for non-domestic buildingsRIBA Sustainable Outcome Metrics

Current Benchmarks 2020 Targets 2025 Targets 2030 Targets Notes

Operational EnergykWh/m2/y

225 kWh/m2/yDEC D rated(CIBSE TM46 benchmark)

< 170 kWh/m2/yDEC C rating

< 110 kWh/m2/yDEC B rating

< 0 to 55 kWh/m2/yDEC A rating

UKGBC Net Zero Framework1. Fabric First2. Efficient services, and low-carbon heat3. Maximise onsite renewables4. Minimum offsetting usingUK schemes (CCC)

Embodied CarbonkgCO2e/m2

1100 kgCO2e/m2

(M4i benchmark)< 800 kgCO2e/m2 < 650 kgCO2e/m2 < 500 kgCO₂e/m2 RICS Whole Life Carbon (A-C)

1. Whole Life Carbon Analysis2. Using circular economyStrategies 3. Minimum offsetting usingUK schemes (CCC)

Potable Water UseLitres/person/day

>16 l/p/day(CIRA W11 benchmark)

< 16 l/p/day < 13 l/p/day < 10 l/p/day CIBSE Guide G

RIBA 2030 Climate Challenge target metrics for domestic buildingsRIBA Sustainable Outcome Metrics

Current Benchmarks 2020 Targets 2025 Targets 2030 Targets Notes

Operational EnergykWh/m2/y

146 kWh/m2 /y(Ofgem benchmark)

< 105 kWh/m2/y < 70 kWh/m2/y < 0 to 35 kWh/m2/y UKGBC Net Zero Framework1. Fabric First2. Efficient services, and low-carbon heat3. Maximise onsite renewables4. Minimum offsetting usingUK schemes (CCC)

Embodied CarbonkgCO2e/m2

1000 kgCO2e/m2

(M4i benchmark)< 600 kgCO2e/m2 < 450 kgCO2e/m2 < 300 kgCO2e/m2 RICS Whole Life Carbon (A-C)

1. Whole Life Carbon Analysis2. Using circular economyStrategies 3. Minimum offsetting usingUK schemes (CCC)

Potable Water UseLitres/person/day

125 l/p/day(Building Regulations England and Wales)

< 110 l/p/day < 95 l/p/day < 75 l/p/day CIBSE Guide G

The RIBA has developed targets for operational energy use, embodied carbon and water use reduction5. These take into account the latest recommendations from the Green Construction Board6 and have been validated through consultation with UK professional bodies and with the Committee on Climate Change. The targets are progressive yet realistic, and a vital first step to ensure the construction industry has delivered the significant reductions necessary by 2030 in order to have a realistic prospect of achieving net zero carbon for the whole UK building stock by 2050.

These targets are based on domestic and commercial buildings and may need further refinement by sector, building type, occupancy and geographical location. The RIBA will seek to develop these additional metrics with other UK professional bodies. However, given the urgency, we cannot wait for the perfect benchmarks to be developed. The RIBA recommends that project teams aim for a percentage reduction of the current baselines and minimum regulatory standards, as shown in the trajectory diagram above, by using the targets set out in the detailed tables below.

Science Based Targets

Numbers accurate as of 18/11/19 - see sciencebasedtargets.org for more information

685companies taking action

>90in construction, real estate and

supply chain

27 based in UK

294 with approved targets

SBT pathways are not consistent with national sector goals

Figure adapted from Giesekam et al. (2018) Aligning carbon targets for construction with (inter)national climate change mitigation commitments

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Decarbonisation rate under IEA 2DS

IEA B2DS

Built environment emissions

Green Construction Board Low Carbon Routemap trajectory & targets

Could include:

1. Updated assessment of progress against KPIs

2. Updated assessment of mitigation potential from a range of technologies, including new options

3. Includes carbon removal

4. Development of a new scenario for the built environment in 2050 which is compatible with net zero national emissions

5. Refreshed action plan with interventions and milestones

6. Program for further routine updates

Should facilitate national, company & project carbon targets and pathway alignment

A net-zero roadmap

Potential funders please get in touch J.Giesekam@leeds.ac.uk

Thank youPlease get in touch with any queries J.Giesekam@leeds.ac.uk

slides available from www.jannikgiesekam.co.uk