we now are at a pivot point - gerd leonhard · 2016-03-22 · virtualization, dematerialization,...
TRANSCRIPT
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We now are at a pivot point
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The speed of change is mind-boggling
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Powerful new intermediaries based on exponential technologies: SoLoMo, BigData+AI
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Thinking exponentially and ‘digitally native’ becomes the key to future success
From the book ‘Exponential Organizations'
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Exponential increases in the sheer velocity of change
From the book ‘Exponential Organizations'
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Twitter: @gleonhard
via mashable.com
Don’t be mistaken just because truly intelligent technology was mostly pretty foolish until now
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Grocery shopping with Google Glass
2 ChatBots talking to each otherSayHi realtime translation app
Gradually then suddenly…
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Dramatic (r)evolution of business models as a result of digitization, automation, virtualization, dematerialization, fragmentation and decentralization (ouch)
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Dramatic impact on: Business Logic Revenue Models Communications
Human Resources Product Development
Customer Relationships
MOBILE SOCIAL M2M IOT/IOE AI BIG DATA
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Welcome to ‘HellVen'
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The coming information, data and ‘knowledge’ explosion
Sense-making, relevance, filtering, curation… becomes a huge business
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Industry definitions and borders are dissolving
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Industry definitions and borders are dissolving
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The
futu
re is
already h
ere! Everything
is becoming: Connected Intelligent Real-time
Customizable Multi-Platform
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Online-Offline convergence: all is real-life now!
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Various kinds of cloud-based machine intelligence will become the new normal
Volvo’s self-parking car, via Youtube
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Consumers as well as businesses now have increasingly abundant choices
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Scarcity ends, abundance increases almost everywhere
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Anything anytime anywhere at much lower cost
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Welcome to the information, knowledge and experience
society
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ALWAYS CONSIDER THE
UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
Source Flickr: http://www.flickr.com/photos/tjblackwell/5328104477/
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4 key consumer / customer (e)evolutions: user control explodes, empowerment everywhere, loss of lock-in, waves of disruption
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An accelerating dilemma
Decreasing… Revenue / Unit ARPU Margin Independence Control
Increasing… User control Empowerment Abundance Transparency Velocity
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Almost everything that can be digitised or automated… will be
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Dramatic Evolution in Human-Machine ‘Relationships’
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"We will be surrounded by computational power. So for average people, for average users and consumers, you will be living in a world where you are essentially living in a computer, where you are surrounded by intelligence”
reuters.com Oct 29 2013 Brian David Johnson INTEL Futurist
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Human-Machine Evolutions: Type.Speak.Gesture.Blink.Think?
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Soon, really immersive technologies will even more dramatically change what we can ‘see’ and ‘experience’
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“Successful disrupters are people who are capable of an active imagination. They begin
reimagining their world by reframing the problem in a way
no one had framed it before” Malcolm Gladwell
We will need to re-frame who we are, what we do, and how
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Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. Mobile. And again…
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Focus on better signals not more noise * …as marketing and advertising becomes content
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Many things that are not easily digitizable will become increasingly valuable *if…
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No matter what your business, strive for creating an
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“I call this managed dissatisfaction. The traditional entertainment ecosystem is built on it, and it’s a totally artificial concept”
Reed Hastings, Netflix CEO, 4/2013 via Quartz.com
ERADICATE MANAGED DISSATISFACTION
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Long-term competitive advantages Transient Advantages
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In a digital society, constantly creating new values around the core is essential
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Transform your business by adding new ‘digitally native’ values around the core. Use “fail fast, fail cheap, try again” approach.
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Return on Involvement: redefining RoI
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Liquid everything: communications, media, commerce, financial, government…
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Yes, ‘not being sold’ matters again: privacy will be a huge business!
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Using technology (driving efficiency)
@gleonhard
Pursuing humanness (allowing ‘inefficiency’)
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@gleonhard
The future of business: algorithms and ‘humarithms’
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Don’t waste your current runway to the future!
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Image of BP platform via US Coast Guard
Velocity Unorthodoxy Collaboration Anticipation