weapons of mass destruction martin donohoe. outline the history and epidemiology of war nuclear...
TRANSCRIPT
Weaponsof
Mass DestructionMartin Donohoe
Outline
The history and epidemiology of war
Nuclear weapons
Chemical weapons
Biological weapons
Outline
Economic and environmental consequences of militarism and war
Health consequences of militarism and war
Contemporary issues
History of war
10,000 yrs ago – agriculture– Stable populations, division of labor, warrior class
3500 yrs ago – bronze weapons and armor 2200 yrs ago – iron 1900 yrs ago - horses
History of war
Ninth Century China - bombs developed Thirteenth Century China – rockets
– Forgotten until the 19th Century
1783 - Balloon 1903 - Airplane
20th Century - WMDs
History of War
Belief that each new invention would eliminate warfare
Instead, increased casualties, killing at a distance
Epidemiology of Warfare
Deaths in war:– 17th – 19th Century = 11-19/million
population– 20th Century = 183/million population
Increasing casualties to civilians– 10% late 19th Century– 85-90% in 20th Century
Contemporary Wars
250 wars in the 20th Century Incidence of war rising since 1950 Most conflicts within poor states 27 separate civil wars currently underway
– 19 involve U.S.-supplied weapons
War Deaths, 1945-2000
Consequences of War
Deaths, injuries, psychological sequelae
Collapse of health care system affecting those with acute and chronic illnesses
Famine
Consequences of War
RefugeesEnvironmental degradationIncreasing poverty and debtAll lead to recurrent cycles of
violence
Atomic Weapons - History
Hiroshima, August 6, 1945– “The day that humanity started taking
its final exam” – Buckminster Fuller– 15 kiloton bomb, 140,000 deaths
Nagasaki, August 9, 1945– 22 kiloton bomb, 70,000 casualties
Atomic Weapons – Other Victims
Hundreds of thousands of hibakusha – atomic bomb survivors
1054 U.S. nuclear tests since 1940s, 331 in atmosphere
80,000 cancers (15,000 fatal) in US citizens as a result of fallout from atmospheric testing
– NCI/CDC
Atomic Weapons Today
Approximately 23,360 nuclear weapons at 11 sites in 14 countries (1/2 active or operationally-deployed)– Down from over 71,000 at height of Cold War
5,200 active U.S. warheads today (more than ½ on hair-trigger alert); 8,000 in Russia– Several thousand megatons (100,000
Hiroshimas)
Atomic Weapons Today
High alert– Fired within 15 minutes, reach targets in
30 minutes Vastly redundant arsenal
– 150-200 weapons adequate to destroy all major urban centers in Russia
Atomic Weapons Today
Accidental intermediate-sized launch of weapons from a single Russian submarine would immediately kill 6.8 million Americans in 8 cities
Nuclear Weapons – Oops!
Pentagon: 32 nuclear weapons accidents since 1950
GAO: 233 Since 1950, 10 nuclear weapons lost and
never recovered– All laying on seabed, potentially leaking
radioactivity
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Immediate:
– Vaporized by thermal radiation
– Crushed by blast wave
– Burned and suffocated by firestorm
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Intermediate:– Suffering, painful deaths– Health care personnel/resources
overwhelmed– Famine– Refugees– Devastated transportation infrastructure
Effects of a Nuclear Explosion
Late effects:– Cancer– Psychological trauma– Nuclear winter (mass starvation due to
disruption of agricultural, transportation, industrial and health care systems)
Effects of a 20 megaton nuclear explosion
Ground zero → 2 miles:– Fireball hotter than sun– everything vaporized
2 - 4 miles:– Buildings ripped apart and leveled
Effects of a 20 megaton nuclear explosion
4 - 10 miles:– Sheet metal melts; concrete buildings
heavily damaged (all others leveled) 16 miles:
– 100 mph winds, firestorm, T = 1400° C– 100% mortality
Effects of a 20 megaton nuclear explosion
21 miles:– Shattered glass, flying debri
29 miles:– 3° burns over all exposed skin
40 miles:– Retinal burns blind all who witness
explosion
Effects of a 20 megaton nuclear explosion over Boston
Death toll:– 1,000,000 within minutes– 1,800,000 survivors:
1,100,000 fatally injured500,000 with major injuries200,000 without injuries
Types of Injuries
Burns Blindings Deafenings Collapsed lungs Fractures Shrapnel wounds
Radiation Sickness
Medium to high doses: death within 1-7 days
Low doses: BM failure, infections, bleeding, sores, ± death
Effects on health professionals
70% killed or fatally wounded
15% injured
< 1000 survive
Effects on health care system
Most major hospitals destroyedEMS system debilitatedNo X-ray machines, electricity,
water, antibiotics or other meds, blood/plasma, bandages
Effects on health care system
2000 burn unit beds in US (100 per major city) – essentially destroyed
No bone marrow transplant capability
Effects on Health Care System
1500 patients/doctor
10 min/pt
4 hours sleep/noc
2 weeks to see all injured
Nuclear Terrorism
Attack on nuclear power plant or other nuclear installation
Dirty bomb– Potential tens to hundreds of thousands of
deaths, billions of dollars of damage, chaos
– Numerous radiation sources left over from Cold War in post-Soviet countries
Nuclear Terrorism
Reports of weapons/numerous radiation sources missing from Soviet arsenal
The Nth Country experiment (1964): 3 science post-docs with no nuclear know-how designed a working atom bomb
Chemical Weapons
428 BC – Athenians and Spartans burned wax, pitch and sulfur
Davinci – arsenic and sulfur shells WW I
– Italians vs. Ethiopians– Japanese vs. Chinese– Germans vs. Allies
chlorine gas91,000 deaths and 1.3 million injuries
Chemical Weapons
Egypt vs. South Yemen (1963-7) Iran/Iraq War (1980s) Gulf War (versus Kurds, ? Others)
– Gulf War Syndrome (real per Congressionally-mandated scientific panel, 2008)
1995 Tokyo subway attack by Aum Shrinko cult using sarin– 12 dead, 5000 injured or incapacitated
Types of Chemical Weapons
Nerve gasses / paralytics– E.g., sarin, VX– S/S: paralysis (incl. resp. muscles), headache,
dizziness, N/V– Rx: ± gas masks, pretreatment with
pyridostigmine, decontamination, antidotes (atropine, pralidoxime, diazepam, tropicamide)
Types of Chemical Weapons
Blistering agents:– E.g., sulphur mustard– S/S: burns, blindness, pulmonary
toxicity, BM suppression, N/V/D– Rx: decontamination, analgesia,
pulmonary and eye care
Types of Chemical Weapons
Pulmonary toxicants– E.g., chlorine, phosgene– S/S: pneumonitis, laryngeal spasm,
pulmonary edema, ARDS– Rx: O2, bronchodilators,
corticosteroids, ?ibuprofen, ?acetylcysteine
Chemical Weapons
1972 Biological and Toxic Weapons Convention prohibits development, production, and stockpiling
1989 stockpiles:– US – 36,000 tons– Russia – 270,000 tons (1/2 = nerve gas)
Current amounts unclear
Other Chemical Weapons
Tear gas, pepper sprayCalmatives: mind-altering or sleep-
inducing weapons (benzo-, SSRI-, and anesthetic derivatives)
Cramp-inducing agents
Other Chemical Weapons
Stink bombs (“?Race specific?”)Colored smoke as an obscurantCrowd control vs use in warfareUS pilot amphetamine use
Biological Weapons - History
Ancient Greeks, Romans and PersiansUS Civil War (General Johnson at
Vicksburg)14th Century: Tatars catapulting plague-
infested corpses
Biological Weapons - History
Sir Jeffrey Amherst (French and Indian Wars - smallpox): “You would do well to try to inoculate the Indians, by means of blankets, … to extirpate this execrable race”
WW I: Cholera, plague, glanders, anthrax
Biological Weapons – WW II
Unit 731, Manchuria, Shiro Ishii British “Operation Vegetarian” (anthrax cakes
/ Germany) US military personnel received typhoid,
smallpox, yellow fever and tetanus vaccines
Biological Weapons Post WWII
Swerdlosk - anthrax
Zimbabwe - anthrax
Biological Weapons Today
17 countries possess (+ Al Qaeda?) US role in supplying other nations:
– e.g., 1985-1989: US companies sold to Iraq: Bacillus anthracis, Clostridium botulinum, Histoplasma
capsulatum, Brucella melitensis, Clostsridium perfringens, Clostridium tetani, and E. coli
Despite evidence of use of chemical weapons against Kurds
Biological Weapons Today
1972 Biological Weapons Protocol: signed by 158 nations
Lacks adequate enforcement mechanisms US has rejected enforcement (wary of foreign
inspectors discovering military secrets and/or trade secrets of biotechnology and pharmaceutical companies)
Biological Weapons - Agents
Anthrax Brucellosis Cholera
Glanders Pneumonic plague
Tularemia Q Fever Smallpox
Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis
Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers (e.g., Ebola)
Botulism Staph enterotoxin B
Ricin Mycxotoxins
Biological Weapons of the Future
Genetic weapons – targeted at specific ethnic groups
Smallpox
DNA virus; decimated native American populations; eradicated by WHO vaccination campaign in 1972; genome sequenced in 1992; recreation of virus in lab possible in 2002
?Only remaining viral stocks at CDCP and in Siberia?
Smallpox
Incubation period 7-17 days (avg. = 12)
Spread by droplet infection; highly contagious
Symptoms: abrupt onset of F/HA/myalgias → rash → MSOF → death
Smallpox
Rx: isolation, post-exposure vaccination, supportive care, ?antivirals
30 % fatality rate
Anthrax
Cutaneous, GI and Pulmonary forms
Est. 50kg release over urban center of 5 million people would sicken 250K and kill 100K
100 kg release would have the same # of casualties as a hydrogen bomb explosion
Inhalational Anthrax
Case fatality rate approx. 50%Rx:
– Post-exposure antibiotics (doxycycline, ciprofloxacin, penicillin)
– Supportive careVaccine
Other WMDs
Small arms
Land mines
Cluster bombs
Health Care System Preparadness for Weapons of Mass Destruction
¾ of US ERs not fully prepared for treating mass casualties
Only 12% of US hospitals have bioterrorism response measures developed and in place
Congressional panel estimates > 50% chance of terrorist act involving WMDs by 2013
Health Care System Preparedness for Weapons of Mass Destruction
US public health / emergency care system already in disarray
80% of states facing budget cuts or holdbacks
Medicaid over budget in 23 statesAnti-immigrant laws dangerous
Priorities and Mass Destructions
Warning:
Progressive Rhetoric Ahead….
Military Spending
US: over ½ of discretionary tax dollars spent on the military
US military budget represents 43% of total world military budget ($1.5 trillion in 2009)
Iraq War costs could reach $2-3 trillion
2009 Federal Budget$2.65 trillion
Economic Cost of War, U.S.
Military Spending
Increased spending on nuclear weapons
Inadequate spending to prevent the spread of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons
Arms Exports
Arms Imports
Missile Defense ShieldThe Militarization of Space
Star Wars program proceeding, despite:– Astronomical cost – est. $100 billion– Strong opposition by scientific community– Spectacular failures in 2/4 tests, despite highly
structured conditions
Abandonment of ABM Treaty by Bush administration
Missile Defense ShieldThe Militarization of Space
“Shield” or very porous umbrella Easily overwhelmed and fooled by
inexpensive decoys No protection against internal accidents or
terrorists bringing weapon onto US soil or “dirty bomb”
Proposed use of moon for spy observatories and weapons
Dwight Eisenhower
“The problem in defense spending is to figure out how far you should go without destroying from within that which you are trying to protect from without”
Social Injustices Abound
51 million Americans lack health insurance → 18,000 deaths per year
25% of US children live in poverty Worsening homelessness, public educational
system, other social indicators 1.2 billion people have no access to clean
drinking water-2 million child deaths/year
Social Injustices
Worldwide
– poverty increasing– maldistribution of wealth– corporatization– global debt crisis
Social Injustices
Worldwide– environmental destruction and global
warming– Air pollution kills 70,000/yr in US, >500K/yr
worldwide– AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa– 70,000 die of hunger every 2 days (i.e.,
one Hiroshima every 2 days)
Health Costs of Militarization
3 hours of world arms spending = annual WHO budget
½ day of world arms spending = immunization for all the world’s children
Health Costs of Militarization
3 weeks of world arms spending = primary health care for all in poor countries, including safe drinking water and full immunizations
Brain drain: 1/2 of US research scientists work entirely on military R and D
Dwight Eisenhower
“Every gun that is made, every rocket fired, signifies in the final sense a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and not clothed”
Dwight Eisenhower
“This world is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.”
Martin Luther King
“A nation that continues year after year to spend more money on military defense than on programs of social uplift is approaching spiritual death.”
US Foreign Aid
US ranks 21st in the world in foreign aid as a percentage of GDP (0.7%, versus UN recommended 0.15%)
Foreign Aid:– 1/3 military– 1/3 economic– 1/3 food and development
US world’s largest arms exporter – many weapons later used against us
Current Problems
Budget surplus → budget deficitIraqAfghanistanOthers?War on Terror
US Nuclear Weapons PoliciesUnder GW Bush
Nuclear Posture Review – expands scope of use of nuclear weapons, including first-strike against non-nuclear states
Withdrawal from ABM Treaty Boycotted Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban
Treaty Conference Budgeted money to resume nuclear testing
and development
U.S. Nuclear Policy Under Obama
U.S. retains first strike option against nuclear states
START treaty signed by Obama, Putin– Awaiting Senate approval– Will limit US and Russia to 1,550
long-range warheads (still overkill)
The US: Rogue Nation
History: Native Americans, slavery, current disparities and injustices
5% of the world’s population; responsible for 25% of its energy consumption, 33% of its paper use, and 72% of its hazardous waste production
Co-opting Nazi and Japanese WWII scientists
The US: Rogue Nation
Minimum 277 troop deployments by the US in its 225+ year history
Since the end of WWII, the US has bombed:– China, Korea, Indonesia, Cuba, Guatemala, Congo, Peru,
Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Grenada, Libya, Panama, Afghanistan, Sudan, Yugoslavia, and Iraq
– Conservative estimate = 8 million killed
The US: Rogue Nation
In 2009, the US spent about $2,210 per US citizen on defense– vs. a few dollars per capita on peacekeeping
efforts
The US maintains military bases in 69 “sovereign” nations around the world
The US: Rogue Nation
Continued funding of the Western Hemisphere Institute for Security Cooperation– Formerly the School of the Americas– Over 60,000 graduates, including many of the
worst human rights abusers in Latin America (e.g., Manuel Noriega, Omar Torrijos, and the assassins of Archbishop Oscar Romero)
International Non-Cooperation/Isolationism
Failure to sign or approve:– Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change– Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel
Land Mines– Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty– Convention on the Rights of the Child
International Non-Cooperation/Isolationism
Failure to sign or approve:– Convention on the Elimination of Discrimination
Against Women– Convention on Economic, Social and Cultural
Rights– Convention for the Suppression of Traffic in
Persons
The US: Rogue Nation
Death Penalty:– US executes more of its citizens than any other
country except China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia– US is the only country to execute both juveniles
and the mentally ill Failure to follow World Court Decisions Oppose International Criminal Court Largest debtor to the UN (only 40% of dues
paid)
The role of the doctor in society
World Health Organization:
– “The role of the physician … in the preservation and promotion of peace is the most significant factor for the attainment of health for all.”
Physicians for Social Responsibility
