weather-climate linkage
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Weather-Climate Linkage. Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems. Outlook. Guidance. Threats Assessments. Forecast Lead Time. Forecasts. Watches. Warnings & Alert Coordination. Benefits. Forecast - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Weather-Climate Linkage
Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC)
January 21, 2014
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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty
MinutesMinutes
HoursHours
DaysDays
1 Week1 Week
2 Week2 Week
MonthsMonths
SeasonsSeasons
YearsYears
Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Fo
reca
st
Lea
d T
ime
Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination
WatchesWatches
ForecastsForecasts
Threats Assessments
GuidanceGuidance
OutlookOutlook
Benefits
Mar
itim
e
Mar
itim
e
Life
& P
rope
rty
Life
& P
rope
rty
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Spa
ce O
pera
tions
Rec
reat
ion
Rec
reat
ion
Eco
syst
em
Eco
syst
em
Env
iron
men
t
Env
iron
men
t
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t
Em
erge
ncy
Mgm
t
Agr
icul
ture
Agr
icul
ture
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
ol
Res
ervo
ir C
ontr
ol
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Ene
rgy
Pla
nnin
g
Com
mer
ce
Com
mer
ce
Hyd
ropo
wer
Hyd
ropo
wer
Fire
Wea
ther
Fire
Wea
ther
Hea
lthH
ealth
Avi
atio
n
Avi
atio
n
•North American Ensemble Forecast System•Climate Forecast System
•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
•Global Forecast System
•North American Mesoscale
•Rapid Refresh
•Dispersion (smoke)
•Global Ensemble Forecast System
• Regional Hurricane• (HWRF & GFDL)
• Waves • Global Ocean• Space Weather
Wea
ther
–
Clim
ate
Link
age
• Tsunami• Whole
Atmosphere• HRRR• NMME• NLDAS
• Wave Ensemble
• Bays• Storm Surge
•Global Dust
•Fire Wx
3
• Air Quality
Timeframe Current Day 3-7 Daily forecasts CPC Hazards
Day 6-10 CPC Day 6-10
Day 8-14 CPC Day 8-14 CPC Hazards
Day 14-28
4
Initiatives to Bridge the Gap
Day 7 1 Month
Week 3&45
Timeframe Future Day 3-7 Daily forecasts Winter Weather Outlook
Day 6-10 Daily forecasts
Day 8-14 CPC Heat Watch CPC Day 8-14 Prob Hazards
Day 14-28 CPC Week 3 & 4 Monthly Hurricane Outlooks Severe Weather Outlooks
Hazards ?
Day 6-10?
NEW
NEW
NEW NEW
NEW
NEW
NEW6
Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10
NWS team being chartered to explore extending weather forecasts to Day 10
Enablers:•Model improvements (GEFS anomaly cor > 0.6 to 9.4 days)•Multimodel ensembles (NAEFS – 9.8 days)•GEFS Reforecasts•NWS Blender Project – sophisticated post processing
Outstanding Questions:•What elements?•What format (deterministic vs. probabilistic)?•Role of NWS operational units?•What techniques (dynamic models / statistical approach)? 7
• Forecast format and forecast process for Days 8-10 may be different– Probabilistic format– Mix of dynamical ensemble, and statistical approaches
• Ongoing CPC/WPC discussions on teleconnections – For example, when
• MJO phase 3 and positive ENSO = enhanced probability of warm in the Northeast US
• MJO phase 7 = increased likelihood of Atmospheric Rivers in the west
Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10
8
Mine ensemble for common weather scenarios
Use Ensemble Cluster InformationUse Ensemble Cluster Information
ECMWF clusters of 500-hPa heights and anomalies
42% Chance East Coast Heat Wave
34% Chance Seasonal
26% Chance Wet
9
Probabilistic HazardsEnablers:•NCEP Reforecast dataset
Outstanding Questions:•What elements and thresholds?
•Consistency with Day 8-10 daily forecasts?
•Consistency with official week-2 hazards?
•Distinction between hazards and extremes?10
11
Identify “extreme” events relative to model climatology.
Requires robust reforecast dataset.
EFI concept complementary to probabilistic hazards
EFI values of >.9 signal potential for extremeevent, relative to the model climatology
Extreme Forecast Index
Week 3 & 4
Enablers:•NCEP CFS•Statistical tools
Outstanding Questions:•Useful Skill?•What is the final product format?
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Timeframe Current Day 3-7 Daily forecasts CPC Hazards
Day 6-10 CPC Day 6-10
Day 8-14 CPC Day 8-14 CPC Hazards
Day 14-28
13
Timeframe Future Day 3-7 Daily forecasts Winter Weather Outlook
Day 6-10 Daily forecasts
Day 8-14 CPC Heat Watch CPC Day 8-14 Prob Hazards
Day 14-28 CPC Week 3 & 4 Monthly Hurricane Outlooks Severe Weather Outlooks
Hazards ?
Day 6-10?
NEW
NEW
NEW NEW
NEW
NEW
NEW14