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Weather-Climate Linkage Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014 1

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Weather-Climate Linkage. Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC) January 21, 2014. Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems. Outlook. Guidance. Threats Assessments. Forecast Lead Time. Forecasts. Watches. Warnings & Alert Coordination. Benefits. Forecast - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Weather-Climate Linkage

Weather-Climate Linkage

Dave Novak (WPC) & Jon Gottschalck (CPC)

January 21, 2014

1

Page 2: Weather-Climate Linkage

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Page 3: Weather-Climate Linkage

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

Seamless Suite of NOAA Operational Numerical Guidance Systems

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Fo

reca

st

Lea

d T

ime

Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

Benefits

Mar

itim

e

Mar

itim

e

Life

& P

rope

rty

Life

& P

rope

rty

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Spa

ce O

pera

tions

Rec

reat

ion

Rec

reat

ion

Eco

syst

em

Eco

syst

em

Env

iron

men

t

Env

iron

men

t

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Em

erge

ncy

Mgm

t

Agr

icul

ture

Agr

icul

ture

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

ol

Res

ervo

ir C

ontr

ol

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Ene

rgy

Pla

nnin

g

Com

mer

ce

Com

mer

ce

Hyd

ropo

wer

Hyd

ropo

wer

Fire

Wea

ther

Fire

Wea

ther

Hea

lthH

ealth

Avi

atio

n

Avi

atio

n

•North American Ensemble Forecast System•Climate Forecast System

•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

•Global Forecast System

•North American Mesoscale

•Rapid Refresh

•Dispersion (smoke)

•Global Ensemble Forecast System

• Regional Hurricane• (HWRF & GFDL)

• Waves • Global Ocean• Space Weather

Wea

ther

Clim

ate

Link

age

• Tsunami• Whole

Atmosphere• HRRR• NMME• NLDAS

• Wave Ensemble

• Bays• Storm Surge

•Global Dust

•Fire Wx

3

• Air Quality

Page 4: Weather-Climate Linkage

Timeframe Current Day 3-7 Daily forecasts CPC Hazards

Day 6-10 CPC Day 6-10

Day 8-14 CPC Day 8-14 CPC Hazards

Day 14-28

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Page 5: Weather-Climate Linkage

Initiatives to Bridge the Gap

Day 7 1 Month

Week 3&45

Page 6: Weather-Climate Linkage

Timeframe Future Day 3-7 Daily forecasts Winter Weather Outlook

Day 6-10 Daily forecasts

Day 8-14 CPC Heat Watch CPC Day 8-14 Prob Hazards

Day 14-28 CPC Week 3 & 4 Monthly Hurricane Outlooks Severe Weather Outlooks

Hazards ?

Day 6-10?

NEW

NEW

NEW NEW

NEW

NEW

NEW6

Page 7: Weather-Climate Linkage

Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10

NWS team being chartered to explore extending weather forecasts to Day 10

Enablers:•Model improvements (GEFS anomaly cor > 0.6 to 9.4 days)•Multimodel ensembles (NAEFS – 9.8 days)•GEFS Reforecasts•NWS Blender Project – sophisticated post processing

Outstanding Questions:•What elements?•What format (deterministic vs. probabilistic)?•Role of NWS operational units?•What techniques (dynamic models / statistical approach)? 7

Page 8: Weather-Climate Linkage

• Forecast format and forecast process for Days 8-10 may be different– Probabilistic format– Mix of dynamical ensemble, and statistical approaches

• Ongoing CPC/WPC discussions on teleconnections – For example, when

• MJO phase 3 and positive ENSO = enhanced probability of warm in the Northeast US

• MJO phase 7 = increased likelihood of Atmospheric Rivers in the west

Extend Weather Forecasts to Day 10

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Page 9: Weather-Climate Linkage

Mine ensemble for common weather scenarios

Use Ensemble Cluster InformationUse Ensemble Cluster Information

ECMWF clusters of 500-hPa heights and anomalies

42% Chance East Coast Heat Wave

34% Chance Seasonal

26% Chance Wet

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Page 10: Weather-Climate Linkage

Probabilistic HazardsEnablers:•NCEP Reforecast dataset

Outstanding Questions:•What elements and thresholds?

•Consistency with Day 8-10 daily forecasts?

•Consistency with official week-2 hazards?

•Distinction between hazards and extremes?10

Page 11: Weather-Climate Linkage

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Identify “extreme” events relative to model climatology.

Requires robust reforecast dataset.

EFI concept complementary to probabilistic hazards

EFI values of >.9 signal potential for extremeevent, relative to the model climatology

Extreme Forecast Index

Page 12: Weather-Climate Linkage

Week 3 & 4

Enablers:•NCEP CFS•Statistical tools

Outstanding Questions:•Useful Skill?•What is the final product format?

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Page 13: Weather-Climate Linkage

Timeframe Current Day 3-7 Daily forecasts CPC Hazards

Day 6-10 CPC Day 6-10

Day 8-14 CPC Day 8-14 CPC Hazards

Day 14-28

13

Page 14: Weather-Climate Linkage

Timeframe Future Day 3-7 Daily forecasts Winter Weather Outlook

Day 6-10 Daily forecasts

Day 8-14 CPC Heat Watch CPC Day 8-14 Prob Hazards

Day 14-28 CPC Week 3 & 4 Monthly Hurricane Outlooks Severe Weather Outlooks

Hazards ?

Day 6-10?

NEW

NEW

NEW NEW

NEW

NEW

NEW14