weather, climate, & stream volumes
TRANSCRIPT
Clark Fork River BasinWater Year Review 2012 & Outlook 2013
byRay Nickless
Service Hydrologist – Missoula, [email protected]
Lolo Pass Visitor Center – “La Nina” Winter 2011 Forest Fires Summer 2012
Overview
• Weather Pattern & Climate(Water Year 2012)
• Streamflow volumes(Water Year 2012)
• Weather Outlook(Water year 2013)
Weather Pattern
Water Year 2012
La Nina - Measured 2011-2012
Weather Balloons
70 Ocean Buoys
La Nina 2011 – 2012(Wintertime Pattern)
Snowpack La Nina Years(Western Montana)
Precipitation & Temperature
2012 - Water year
October 2011 through September 2012
Precipitation2012 – Water Year
New RecordKalispell
Tied RecordMissoula
41 days without precipitation
68% of ave.
Dry Butte
Entire 2012 water year
New RecordPierce, ID
87 days without precipitation
New RecordElk City, ID
32 days without precipitation
Departure from Average TemperatureOctober 2011 through September 2012
Temperatures(Warm)
DroughtLack of precipitation and warmer temperatures
Water Supply for Water Year 2012(A look back)
Bitte
rroo
t Riv
er10
7% o
f ave
.
Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012
Blackfoot River
117% of ave.
Clark Fork River
112% of ave.
Middle Fork Flathead River
124 % of ave.
North Fork Flathead River
128 % of ave.
Hungry Horse Inflow126 % of ave.
Flathead River127 % of ave.
Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012
Kootenai River
Kootenai River
144% of ave.
144% of ave.
Libby Dam InflowLibby Dam Inflow143% of ave.143% of ave.
Streamflow Volumes (April through September) Water Year 2012
Precipitation - TemperatureWater Supply Forecasts
2013 -Water year
Weather ForecastYesterday
Weather ForecastThis Week
Missoula
Snowbowl (Ski Area)
Weather OutlookEnd of October through November 1st
Temperature Precipitation
El Nino - Watch
November-December-JanuaryWeather Outlook
Temperature Precipitation
January-February-MarchWeather Outlook
Temperature Precipitation
El Nino & Water Supply Forecasts
Middle Fork Flathead River
North Fork Flathead River
USGS Streamflow & Annual Departure from mean
Middle Fork Flathead River&
El Nino years
El Nino YearsEl Nino Years
19 El Nino years since 1950
12 of 19 produced low flowsor 63% of time low flows
Bitte
rroo
t Riv
er
Blackfoot River
Clark Fork River
USGS Streamflow & Annual Departure from mean
El Nino Years
Blackfoot River&
El Nino years
El Nino Years
19 El Nino years since 1950
13 of 19 produced low flowsor 68% of time low flows
Conclusions
– Water Year 2012• La Nina produced average to above average
snowpack in most western MT & north central ID.
• Average to above average water supply.
• Dry summer.
– Water Year 2013
• If El Nino develops (drier winter possible).
• If El Nino does not develop (drier, wetter, oraverage).