weather trends monday, september 22, 2014, 3:15-4:30 p.m.€¦ · book, “warnings: the true story...

Weather Trends Monday, September 22, 2014, 3:15-4:30 p.m.

Mike Smith, CCM Senior Vice President & Chief Innovation Executive AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions Wichita, Kan. Mike Smith likes to be known as a husband, father, scientist, entrepreneur, author, and speaker. Mike is one of America’s leading experts in extreme weather and its effects on business and society. In 1981, after a successful career in television meteorology during which he broadcast a live tornado for the first time, Mike founded WeatherData, Inc. WeatherData quickly became known for its innovation, customer service, and excellence in precision forecasting. Mike achieved his board certification as a consulting meteorologist in 1984. He has been awarded 19 U.S. and foreign patents. In 1992, he received the American Meteorological Society’s Award for Outstanding Contribution to Applied Meteorology for his innovative storm warnings. In 2000, WeatherData was honored with the society’s Award for Outstanding Contribution to Meteorology by a Corporation. Because he wanted to take his products and services to a larger audience, Mike sold the assets of WeatherData to AccuWeather in 2006. In 2011, AccuWeather’s traditional commercial business was united with WeatherData’s to form AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions. Mike became senior vice president and chief innovation executive for AES, and he continues in that position, consulting with some of the world’s most important companies. AES’s clientele includes IBM, BNSF Railway, Ford, Macy’s, Boeing, and most of the Fortune 100 companies. A new chapter opened in Mike’s career in 2010 when Greenleaf Book Group published his first book, “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather.” The book has received rave reviews and holds a five-star rating at Amazon. His second book, “When the Sirens Were Silent,” is a monograph that reveals what went wrong with the storm warning system during the 2011 tornado in Joplin, Mo., that killed 161 people. Mike is also a professional speaker who educates and entertains audiences across the United States. Mike and his wife, Kathleen, live in Wichita, Kansas. They have three grown children and two children-in-law.

Session Description: The amount of progress weather science is making in the field of warning of extreme storms can only be described in one word: breathtaking. Whether the warning of Super Storm Sandy, saving more than 200 lives in the November 2013 Midwest tornadoes, or an ordinary hailstorm that would cause millions of losses to the property and casualty insurance industry, warnings of unprecedented accuracy are being made. Rapidly, weather science is becoming a highly useful tool to allow the insurance industry to better serve its clientele and to limit exposure to extreme weather. Mike Smith will present techniques for applying this new science to challenges faced by the insurance industry.

Top Three Session Ideas Tools or tips you learned from this session and can apply back at the office.

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Weather Trends

Mike SmithSenior Vice President and Chief Innovation Executive

Weather Trends

Mike Smith

Politics-Free Climate Trend Discussion

2014 NAMIC Connect Differently - Smith Page 1 of 55

World temperatures have notwarmed since 1998

Note: This is the same metric used by the United Nations’ IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Sea Surface Temperatures

Bob Tisdale


Are Storms Getting Worse?

The evidence says NO.

Hurricanes

This index, from Dr. Ryan Maue, combines hurricane number and intensity.


Major Hurricanes – U.S. Landfalls

Dr. Roger Pielke

INSERT CHART

New England HurricaneFrequency – Down!

New England Hurricane History


TornadoesF-1 or greater intensity

Dr. Greg Carbin, National Weather Service

INSERT CHART

TornadoesF-3 or greater intensity

National Weather ServiceN ti l W th S i


TornadoesThe lack of upward trend in tornadoes is especially surprising given Doppler radar and storm chasing.

TornadoesWhy it is risky to rely on politicians for information about climate.

July 15, 2014:Syracuse, N.Y. -- Gov. Andrew Cuomo told reporters last week that the rare deadly tornado that struck Madison County on July 8 was part of a "new normal" of extreme weather.

"We don't get tornadoes in New York, right? Anyone will tell you that," Cuomo said at a news conference July 8 in Smithfield, where the tornado struck. "Well, we do now."

Photo courtesy: Syracuse.com


TornadoesNot only has New York always experienced tornadoes, it used to experience more than in recent decades

Dr. Greg Carbin, National Weather Service

Sea Level RiseThere is no increase in the rate of sea level rise.


Drought FrequencyWhat is the cause of the current major drought

INSERT LATEST DROUGHT MAP

Drought Frequency


Drought Frequency

Drought Frequency


Drought Frequency

Climate bottom line for insurance industry:

No Changes Necessary to Date

No Forecasts of the Future


Science of Meteorology:Tornado warnings save more than 1,000 lives in

a typical year.

ornado warning systemTA Nobel Prize-Worthy Endeavor of the Last Half-Century


In the Mid-20th CenturyTornadoes Terrorized the U.S.

Tornado after Tornado Caused Triple-Digit Fatalities

1947: Woodward, OK; 181 dead, 1500+ injured

1953: Waco, TX; 114 dead, 600 injured

1953: Flint, MI; 115 dead, 844 injured

1953: Worcester, MA; 94 dead, 1,288 injured

There was no warning system.The Weather Bureau forbade itself from issuing tornado warnings.


May 25, 1955MMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy 22222222222222222222222222222222222222225555555555555555555555555555555555555555,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 1111111111111111111111111111111111119999999999999999999999999999999999999999995555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555555May 25, 1955Forecast: “Mostly cloudy with off and on thundershowers”


Blackwell


Oxford

Oxford

Udall

Oxford

Udall


1957The Ban Crumbles

Photos provided by The Kansas City Star,used with permission

Ottawa Herald


TTTThhhhheeee RRRReeesssseeeeaaaarrrrcccchhhh ooofff tttthhheeeee111111199999777770000000’’’’sssss ttttttoooo 1111999999990000’’’’sss

TTThhheeee RRRReeeesssseeeeaaaarrrrcccchhhh ooooffff tttthhheee1119997770000’’’ssss ttttoooo 1111999999990000’sssss


TTTTTTTThhhhhheeeee RRRRRRRRReeeeeeessssseeeeeeaaaaaaaarrrrrrrrrcccccccccccccccchhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh ooooooooooooffffffffffffffffffffff ttttttttttttttttttttttttttttthhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhheeeeee111119999999777777700000000’’’sssss tttttttoooooo 1111111111111119999999999999999999999999999999999999999000000000’’’’sssss

AAAddddvvvvaancccceeeessss iiiinnnn BBBBrrrrooooaaaadddcasttt MMMMMMeeettteeeeoooorrrroooollllooogggyyyy 111999777000’’’ssss -- 1119999000’sssgggyyy


SSSSSSSSSSSSiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnncccccccceeeeeeeee 2222222222200000000000000000000000000

Storm Hawk®

May 4, 2007


200+ MPHWINDS

2


Larry Schwan


Udall and GreensburgNearly Identical Environment

Both were F-5 Intensity

Both occurred at night (35 “clock minutes” apart)

Both approached from South (rather than Southwest)

Approach of both cloaked by heavy rain and hail

Same state building codes and construction type

Both destroyed more than 95% of buildings in respective towns

Nearly Identical Damage Intensity

The Wichita Eagle Udall Tornado Museum


The Wichita Eagle Udall Tornado MuseumTh Wi hit E l Ud ll T d M

Nearly Identical Damage Intensity

Nearly Identical Meteorologically


Two NearlyIdentical Tornadoes

Thanks to the Warning System-Two very different outcomes

Udall“The town that died in it’s sleep”

No Warning Whatsoever

82 killed, 260 injured

Population: 505

68% killed or injured


GreensburgCapstone of Modern Warning System

The Wichita Eagle

Excellent, Effective Warning

12 killed, 59 injured

Population: 1500

GreensburgCapstone of Modern Warning System

Put Another Way:

Greensburg Population x Udall Fatality Rate = Potential Lives Lost in Greensburg

1500 x .163 = 243 Potential Fatalities

243 Potential Fatalities – 12 (actual fatalities) = 231 Lives Potentially Saved


NO TRAIN ON ITS SIDE


How to Build Wind-Resistant Homes Inexpensively.

Science of Meteorology:


Video by Scott McPartland


We Are Not Just Saving Lives:We are Now Analyzing Storm Damage Patterns So ThatBuildings Can Be More Resilient at Relatively Low Cost

Example: Damage Surveys ofMoore, Oklahoma Tornado - May 20, 2013


How Can Major Damage ExistNext to Minor Damage?

Explanation: Suction Vorticies


While most of the wind mitigation work must be done by the general contractor, there are some items for heating and cooling professionals:

• Chimneys and all external air vents must be tightly sealed

• Soffit vents must be attached, not just pushed into place (see Florida building code for examples)

• All doors should open out.

There is no reason a home couldnot be advertised as tornado resistant.

Another Explanation for Varying Damage: Flying Debris


Low Cost, Fortified Homes

Non code-compliant rebuilding Tuscaloosa!

What can Reasonably Be Done to Mitigate Losses?


FEMAs 2011 Tornado

MAT Report

What can Reasonably Be Done to Mitigate Losses?

Non code-compliant police station and EOC Tuscaloosa!

Homes Should have

Basements or Safe

Rooms

{A basement adds

$24 / month to a

30-year loan}

Housing Reconstruction


• Hurricane Straps

• Extra Nails

• Steel reinforcements around windows and sliding glass doors

Housing Reconstruction

Proactively Sizing Your Hurricane Response


INSERT HOME INFORMATION

On the cusp of providing real-time information pertinent to underwriting.

Science of Meteorology:


Science of Meteorology:24-Hour Hailstorm Forecast

Forecast the Day Before Actual Radar, 3 hr. Early

New “Mesoscale Modeling” Products

Science of Meteorology:Tornado Prediction – April 28, 2014Fatal Brandon, MS tornado


Science of Meteorology:Tornado Prediction – April 28, 2014Fatal Brandon, MS tornado

Science of Meteorology:Tornado Prediction – April 28, 2014Fatal Brandon, MS tornado – Six Hour Forecast


Science of Meteorology:Tornado Prediction – April 28, 2014Fatal Brandon, MS tornado – Six Hour Forecast

Science of Meteorology:More Precise Hurricane Evacuations –NHC Storm Surge Maps


Science of Meteorology:Better, More Precise Storm Warnings ForBusiness

TORNADO TRACK

Science of Meteorology:Better, More Precise Storm WarningsFor Business


Protecting Your Cat Team and AdjustersWhere do they shelter?

Science of Meteorology:Better, More Precise Storm WarningsFor Individuals


Insurance Companies Can Sponsor Warning Apps So To Increase Safety

Weather and Climate Science Saves Lives, Increasingly SavesMoney and Can Make the Insurance Industry More Profitable


Mike [email protected](316) 266-8000

Contact Information:


weather trends monday, september 22, 2014, 3:15-4:30 p.m.€¦ · book, “warnings: the true story...

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