web evolution (part i)
DESCRIPTION
Slides from the lessons to URBEUR-QUA_SI PhD students - University of Milano Bicocca (prof.R.Polillo)TRANSCRIPT
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May 12, 2014
University of Milano BicoccaURBEUR-QUASI PhD Programme
The evolution of the WebPart I: The story
Roberto PolilloDepartment of Informatics, Systems and CommunicationsUniversity of Milano Bicocca
1
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Our goal: to discuss the evolution of the Web
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Part I (today): The story A summary of the milestones / paradigms of the evolution of the Web: 1990-today
Part II (next Monday): The driving forcesA summary of market mechanisms that drive the growth of the Web online services
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"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus
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The evolution of the Web
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From the first Web site (1991), the Web is continuously growing and changing its nature
In parallel, telephony is drastically changed (fixed → mobile)
Drivers of this evolution: tecnology, market, people behaviour
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Four Internet paradigms
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1995+
Corporate sites Web portals Search engines E-commerce Web as an interface ….
HYPERTEXT, eCOMMERCE
2005+
Blogs Social networks UGC Cooperative
creation Sharing Reusable
contents …
SOCIAL MEDIA1985+
E-mail File transfer Newsgroups ….
COMMUNICATION NETWORK
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2015+MOBILE WEB
Mobile devices Cloud computing Geolocalzation Camera phone Augmented
reality Electronic wallet
Four Internet paradigms
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Mobile devices
Desktop + laptop
Worldwide installed base
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Growth8
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Web sites growth (world)
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Source: http://gandalf.it/dati
millions
Active sites
"Dead"sites
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Web sites languages
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
(April 2013)
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Internet host growth (World)
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Source: Internet Systems Consortium, from Wikipediahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Internet_usage
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Internet users growth (World)
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Source: ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013 (onlinte)
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Growth of .it domains
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13th
ou
sand
s
Source: http://gandalf.it/dati
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Internet traffic growth (World)
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http://gizmodo.com/5614841/
web
video
p2p
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Nature of Internet traffic
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Da Wired
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Paradigm #1: Web 1.016
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Web 1.0
MS ExplorerAmazoneBayIPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002
First web siteat
CERN
W3CNetscape NavigatorYahoo
Mosaic
GoogleMozilla
NapsterPaypal
Max NASDAQ
9/11
MinNASDAQ
Nasdaq Composite Index
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Web 1.0: main characteristics
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Site content produced by site publisher Hierarchical organization and navigation thru menu Single user web site interaction Interaction with data bases "Closed" services (“get the user and keep her within
site”)
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Narrowband connection
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Web 1.0 Web sites
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Corporate Web sites Portals and search engines eCommerce [Enterprise portals]
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Corporate Web sites
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Target: customers, investors, press, general public
Who & where we are, what we do, our products / services, [online sales]
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Portals
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Access to set of online resources Thematic "channels" General portals vs "vortals" Personalization (“myPortal”) Very large developments in late '90s
www.yahoo.comfrom 1994, always among the first 5 more visited sites
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Short history of Yahoo!
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1996: http://web.archive.org/web/19961022175643/http://www10.yahoo.com/ 1999: http://web.archive.org/web/19990208021636/http://www12.yahoo.com/ 2001: http://web.archive.org/web/20011108000033/http://www.yahoo.com/ 2003 http://web.archive.org/web/20031211113526/http://www.yahoo.com/ 2005 http://web.archive.org/web/20051220154406/http://www.yahoo.com/? 2007: http://web.archive.org/web/20071229022936/http://www.yahoo.com/ 2010: http://web.archive.org/web/20101016230535/http://www.yahoo.com/ Today: www.yahoo.com
http://www.archive.org/ (from 1996)
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Italy: the beginning
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VideoOnLine (Grauso, 1994 → Tin.it, 1996)
(1996)
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Enterprise portals
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Internal to organization: Document management Internal communication Internal procedures and forms Front-end to corporate information systems
Private corporate networks slowly adopt Internet protocols ("intranet")
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E-commerce: main success stories
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http://www.amazon.com from 1995
Current size:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=amazon.com
http://www.ebay.com from 1995
Current size:http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=ebay.com
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The "dot.com bubble"27
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IPO (Initial Public Offering) frenzy
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dot.com frenzy started by Netscape IPO (Aug 9, 1995) Founded 18 months earlier 16 M$ revenues, no profit Market cap at IPO: 1 B$ (!)
Large venture capital, to bring startups to IPO Many irrealistic business models NASDAQ bubble, then fall (2000-2001) Silicon Valley stops completely
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The "dot.com bubble”
MS ExplorerAmazoneBayIPO Netscape
1990 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2000 2001 2002
First web site atCERN
W3CNetscape NavigatorYahoo
Mosaic
GoogleMozilla
NapsterPaypal
Max NASDAQ
9/11
MinNASDAQ
Nasdaq Composite Index
March 10 2000: index at
5132
March 10 2000: index at
5132
Oct 9 2002: index at 1114Oct 9 2002:
index at 1114
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But the life continues….
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Paradigm #2: Web 2.031
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Web 2.0: birth of a name
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First O’Reilly Media Web 2.0 Conference (Oct 2004) The Internet community realizes that the Web is changed…
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Web 2.0 key aspects
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Social media: The user is the leading actor User interaction throu the Web: one-to-many (blog), many-to-many (social media) Services to host User Generated Content (UGC), to be shared with other users Collective creation User rating in e-commerce "Market are conversations" (Cluetrain manifesto, 1999-2000)
The Web as a computing platform: Online services, virtualization Perpetuale beta Component and service mashups Rich Internet Applications (RIA) technologies
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Web 2.0
2000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Twitter, Slideshare, ScribdGoogle DocsYouTube
, Joomla, NingFlickr,
Skype WordPressBlogger LinkedIn iPhone
GrouponAndroid, Dropbox
FoursquareWhatsApp
iPad, PinterestInstagram
Google+
Wikipedia
(In red start of mobile Web)
Internet traffic v
ideo
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Xmas 2006
Media acknowledge the paradigm change
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Top 5 sites (Q4/09 – Q1/13)
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Source: Alexa
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Another bubble?
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Netscape IPO
Google IPOAug 19 2004
LinkedIn IPO(NYSE)
Facebook IPO
Twitter IPO(NYSE)
1994
1995
1997
1996
March 10 2000:5049
(Indice Nasdaq 1994-2013)
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In the meanwhile, telephony changes…38
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Fasi della storia del Web39
Firs
t Web
site
at C
ERN
Mos
aic
(NCS
A)
W3C
; Net
scap
e Nav
igat
or
Netsc
ape
IPO,,
MS
Expl
orer
, Am
azon
, eBa
y
Boom
and
fall
of N
ASDAQ
G
oogl
e IP
O; F
aceb
ook
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12
WEB 1.0 WEB 2.0crisisPre-history
Googl
e fo
unde
d9/
11; W
ikip
edia
Fina
ncia
l cris
i
iPho
ne, A
ndro
id
Twitt
er
iPad
FB IP
O
Nasdaq Composite Index
YouT
ube
Internet traffic
vid
eo
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R.Polillo, May 201440
SMS
2 G
Nokia 5110
GSM (candybar)SMS, watch, sveglia, rubrica, calcolatrice, rubrica, giochi, suonerie
MMS
WAP
2.5 G
Motorola V3 RAZR
"Feature phone"GPRS (candybar, clamshell) + MMS,,photocamera, email, (Internet)
Touch phone
iPhone+ multitouch, sensors, GPS, app, …
3 G
Blackberry
"Smartphone"+ alphanumeric kb, PDA, video, GPS, radio, MP3, OS, …TELEFONIA
MOBILE
TIM, Omnitel
Firs
t Web
site
at C
ERN
Mos
aic
(NCS
A)
W3C
; Net
scap
e Nav
igat
or
Netsc
ape
IPO,,
MS
Expl
orer
, Am
azon
, eBa
y
Boom
and
fall
of N
ASDAQ
G
oogl
e IP
O; F
aceb
ook
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 0990 10 11 12Goo
gle
foun
ded
9/11
; Wik
iped
ia
Fina
ncia
l cris
i
iPho
ne, A
ndro
id
Twitt
er
iPad
FB IP
O
YouT
ube
vid
eo
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IP telephony
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Skype Internet based video-telephony, free Starting 2003, acquired by eBay in 2005, then by
Microsoft in 2011 (8,5 B$) 2012: 700 ml accounts; one third of all international
calls pass through Skype Jan 2013: 50 ml concurrent users
WhatsApp Free SMS via IP Started in 2009, acquired by Facebook in 2014 (19
B$)
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The "mobile miracle"
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ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2012
Mobile cellular subscriptions
6 years gap
ITU, Measuring the Information Society 2013
Internet users
90% of world population has
access to a cellphone
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Paradigm #3: Mobile Web44
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Apple iPhone (2007)
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Android
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Linux based mobile OS Initially developed by Android Inc., acquired by Google
in 2005 Open-source First android phone: end 2008 Today the largest market share for mobile OS
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Mobile OS market share
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Source: StatCounter
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Apple iPAD (2010)
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Samsung Galaxy S series (Android)
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2010 2013
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Mobile installed base (World)
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"Leap-frogging"
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"Mobile" may be misleading…
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Emphasis is not on the "moveability" Emphasis is on the fact that we always bring them with us
Small, portable, personal, context-aware, multi-function devices…
… which can also be used to make a phone call
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A complete paradigm change
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Access from fixed location
Ubiquitous, contextualizedl
access
Device is geo-localized, has eyes, hears, voice, knows its user and is connected to a global computing platform
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Devices change our behaviours
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Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones in USA: voice vs SMS (Nielsen)
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Monthly pro-capite use of cellphones: voice vs SMS by age in USA
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Q2 2008, Nielsen
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Camera phone
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Started circa 2002, with MMS services Now editing (photo and video) and immediate
uploading / sharing on the net >250 ml photos uploaded daily to Facebook Photo & videa cameras change their nature
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http://bit.ly/VIIoX1 R.Polillo, May 201457
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Samsung Cameraphone (Android)
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Camera eyes: QRCODE
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Augmented reality
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Augmented reality
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Augmented reality
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But we cannot do everything with a small, portable device…
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Mob
ile a
nd c
loud
com
putin
g ar
e st
rong
ly rel
ated
CLOUD
Tks Lara Ciccarelli per i disegni
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And now…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ErpNpR3XYUw apr 2012
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNATuCkRWFE feb 2013
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Smart watches
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Smartphone voice assistant
Apple Siri: in iPhone 4S ott 2011, in iPad in set 2012Demo: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtwVQhEXCcc
Google Voice Search/Google now: ottobre 2012, orientato al search
Microsoft Cortana: 2014 http://bgr.com/2014/04/14/cortana-vs-siri-vs-google-now
Il futuro anche nei sistemi di guida di autoveicoli
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Conclusion
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"You cannot step into the same river twice"
"Change alone is unchanging"
Heraclitus