weber shandwick uk general election guide 2010

91
General Election Guide 2010

Upload: insideelectionws

Post on 27-Apr-2015

990 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

DESCRIPTION

Weber Shandwick's giude to the UK General Election 2010. Visit http://election.webershandwick.co.uk for more details.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

General ElectionGuide 2010

Page 2: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 02

IntroductIon

by Jon McLeod 03

SectIon 1:

Background to the election 04The 2005 General Election Result 05UK politics since 2005 06Cameron’s Conservatives 082010 Opinion Polls 10

SectIon 2:Guide to the Battlefield Seats 12Overview 13The 117 seats the Tories need to gain to form a government 16 The 10 most vulnerable Labour seats to the Liberal Democrats 54The 10 most vulnerable Labour seats to the SNP 55Other ‘Ones to watch’ 56

SectIon 3:

class of 2010? 58Profiles of new candidates seeking to replace retiring MPs 59

SectIon 4:

the campaign 81 Campaign techniques 82The Manifestos 84

SectIon 5:

resources 87Useful links 88Further reading 89Acknowledgements 90

Page 3: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

Introduction

The 2010 General Election looks set to be the most exciting and closely fought since 1992. If the polls are correct, Labour’s late recovery could produce a photo-finish result and possibly a hung

parliament for the first time since the 1970s.

Weber Shandwick has produced this handy guide to the campaign to give you an insight into the issues, the campaign techniques, what the polls mean and what the lie of the land is in the 117 battleground seats the Tories need to gain to form a government.

It is not intended to be an exhaustive guide – we provide links to the key websites and a bibliography for those readers whose thirst for psephological data is not satisfied here – and we can offer more detailed advice and research ourselves on a commercial basis – but we hope that this provides a useful overview and a tool that will help you to understand the campaign and the election night results. If you hold an alternative view of our constituency and candidate profiles, disagree with our analysis, or have any factual corrections, we would welcome your feedback.

For further information about Weber Shandwick’s award-winning public affairs team and our services, please contact me on 020 7067 0303 or email [email protected].

Jon McLeod Chairman Weber Shandwick Public Affairs

general election guide 2010 03

Page 4: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 04

SEcTIon 1

Background to the Election

Page 5: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

the 2005 General election result

The 2005 General Election saw Labour under Tony Blair re-elected for an unprecedented full third term.

Whilst the result is now one that seems to Labour activists a distant memory of happier times, at the time opponents of Mr Blair who wanted him replaced by Gordon Brown presented it as a bad result for Labour and a personal rebuff for Blair.

Indeed, Labour’s majority fell from 167 in 2001 to 66 in 2005. A 3% swing from Labour to Tory saw Labour lose a net 47 seats, the Tories gain a net 33, and the Lib Dems gain a net 11.

The net Lib Dem gains demonstrated the major story of the election: anger about the Iraq War caused three key sections of Labour support to defect to the Lib Dems, namely students, Muslims and the urban liberal left. In contrast Labour actually did quite well in using incumbency and Tony Blair’s instinctive feel for Middle England’s political concerns to hold onto such unlikely Lab vs. Con marginals as Hastings & Rye, Hove and South Dorset.

For the Tories under Michael Howard, 2005 represented some steady progress in rebuilding the party’s core vote, but demonstrated that a “dog whistle” strategy based on exploiting public concern about immigration and Europe could not win an election. With all the Tory gains still leaving the party 158 seats behind Labour and with fewer seats than Labour had got in the 1983 Thatcher landslide under Foot, it was clear that a more fundamental re-launch of the Tory Party was needed

Labour won a working majority despite only getting 35.3% of the national vote, demonstrating that the UK’s First-Past-the-Post voting system is at least temporarily tilted in the Party’s favour. This is because of three factors: turnout is lower in Labour seats, on average Labour seats have smaller electorates, and Labour’s vote is more usefully distributed than the Tories’, who pile up large majorities in safe seats where they are not needed.

The other big story of the 2005 election was the continued low turnout – at 61% it was the lowest since 1918 other than the 59% recorded in the 2001 election. In both cases the driving factors seem to have been disillusion amongst Labour’s core vote and a general sense that the re-election of Labour was a foregone conclusion.

general election guide 2010 05

Page 6: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

uK politics since 2005

In May 2005 Tony Blair secured an historic third term for Labour. Despite this, the much-reduced 66-seat majority in parliament coupled with the political environment at the time presented Blair with a number of significant challenges. Chief among these was the growing public opposition to the war in Iraq. The London bombings which took place in July 2005 merely strengthened these feelings; people saw the war against terror arrive at their own doorsteps.

This public opposition was matched with a growing opposition to Blair within the Parliamentary Labour Party on both Iraq and public service reform. He endured his first House of Commons defeat as Prime Minister when MPs voted against increasing the length of time a terror suspect could be held without being formally charged from 14 to 90 days. Declining public support for the Labour Party continued throughout 2006 and 2007, and this was most acutely felt with the Scottish National Party becoming the largest party in the Scottish Parliament at the May 2007 elections.

Though it was widely expected that Gordon Brown would succeed Tony Blair as leader of the Labour Party, the exact timing and nature of this handover remained unclear. Eventually the transition was precipitated by the “Curry House Coup” in September 2006, when a number of Brownite MPs from the 2001 intake called for Blair to go. This forced him to announce a timetable for departure. When the handover took place in June 2007 it was generally seen as being far less politically bloody than it could have been, with no other candidate managing to even get nominated to run against Gordon Brown. Standing on the steps of 10 Downing Street, Brown declared that it was time to “Let the work of change begin.” Outlining his priorities in education and health in particular, he stated that a core aim would be to restore trust in politics.

Following a strong start to his tenure, throughout the summer months that followed Brown enjoyed a honeymoon period and there was intense political speculation that he would go to the polls after the autumn party conferences to try to secure a mandate for the next five years. Following strong performances by David Cameron and George Osborne at the Tory conference, Brown decided not to call an election and his perceived indecision over this has haunted him ever since.

With the global economic situation gradually deteriorating, the economy began the come to dominate political debate. The move in by the Government in February 2008 to nationalise the troubled mortgage lender Northern Rock was the culmination of growing funding problems at the bank during the second half of 2007 following the US sub-prime mortgages crisis. In May 2008 Labour suffered its worst local election results in 40 years.

As the situation worsened in the United States, Brown soon found himself facing one of the most severe global recessions in recent history. In October 2008, the Government had to part-nationalise three leading UK banks with a £37 billion rescue package and also had to pump billions into the UK financial system after record stock market falls precipitated by the global “credit crunch.” These economic problems continued into 2009, with the Bank of England cutting interest rates to record lows and the Government announcing a second package of measures to help Britain’s ailing banks.

general election guide 2010 06

Page 7: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

As the economy continued to suffer in recession, Parliament also came under scrutiny with the MPs’ expenses scandal hitting the front pages of The Daily Telegraph. In what was seen as a campaign in the public interest, the paper chose to shine a spotlight on the abuses of the expenses system which targeted a number of high profile MPs. Amid mounting public anger, coupled with an inquiry led by Sir Christopher Kelly, a number of MPs announced they would not only repay claims deemed to be unjustified, but some went further by announcing their resignation from Parliament at the next General Election. The Speaker of the House, Michael Martin, also stood down following intense criticism about his handling of the scandal.

At the European elections in June 2009, the Government again suffered a humiliating defeat at the ballot box, recording its lowest share of the vote – 15.7% – since World War One and being beaten into third place by UKIP.

Since the start of 2010, as the economy has falteringly recovered. Labour has significantly recovered its position in the polls. From a Conservative double digit lead at the end of 2009, today the polls are hovering in the low single digits.

general election guide 2010 07

Page 8: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 08

Cameron’s Conservatives

At the 2005 General Election Michael Howard, then leader of the Conservative Party, asked voters ‘Are you thinking what we’re thinking?’ As it turned out (and as many at the time said), they weren’t. The following day Howard and supporters gathered in Putney, one of the small number of seats that had swung back to the Conservatives the night before, and in an announcement that surprised both Party workers and the small number of journalists that had not been too tired to turn up, he resigned his leadership of the Party.

It was expected that following a short and not particularly contentious leadership election, shadow home secretary David Davis would take over from Howard and begin the task of rebuilding the Party. But during the 2005 Party Conference in Blackpool, David Cameron, who had only been an MP since 2001, wowed the assembled Party members with his sense of optimism and call for a new era in the Conservative Party. The last four and a half years have seen Cameron attempt to change the Party from the grass roots up, a task that has been challenging and has provided mixed results.

There was no doubt following the 2005 Election that the Tory message was not resonating with voters. While calls for ‘cleaner hospitals’, ‘more police’ and ‘controlled immigration’ seemed to mirror what people were talking about, the Party itself didn’t appear to have changed since John Major lost in 1997. They were the same old Tories, talking about the same old issues with the same Eton and Oxbridge-educated, white, middle-class faces. The Party had to change and just as importantly, it had to show that it had changed, if it was to stand any chance of being electable again.

David Cameron threw himself into the task of reforming the Conservative Party, with a trip to the Arctic Circle to demonstrate how green and carbon neutral his progressive Tories were and with his ‘hug a hoodie’ speech where he called for better understanding of young people who commit crime. Two years after his rousing speech asking members to elect him as their leader, Cameron returned to the Party Conference stage in Blackpool, amid much speculation that Gordon Brown was about to call a snap election, and without notes or autocue wowed the audience once again. Cameron’s speech followed a week of policy announcements from the Party, with George Osborne’s promise to lift the ceiling on inheritance tax to £1million gaining the most coverage and acclaim.

Brown, of course, never did call that election, much to the relief of the Conservative Party who, by their own admission, could not have beaten a popular Gordon Brown. Earlier that summer Tory front bencher Graham Brady had quit his position over the Party’s stance on grammar schools, leading to a return to the infighting that Cameron had tried so hard to distance his Party from. Grass roots members were also unhappy with the policy to end support for new grammars and previously popular shadow education secretary David Willetts was forced to stage an embarrassing climbdown.

By May 2008 the Conservative Party was starting to look as though an election victory was within its grasp. Boris Johnson had beaten Ken Livingstone to become the new Mayor of London and following the death of veteran Labour MP Gwyneth Dunwoody

Page 9: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 09

the Tories took Crewe and Nantwich in a stunning by-election victory that saw a swing of 17.6% away from Labour, who for the first time since 1997 were less popular than the Conservatives.

With two years to go until the next General Election, Cameron’s Conservatives were riding high in polls and looking as though the election was theirs to lose. But then a year later, revelations about the extent of Parliamentary allowances and expenses began to emerge that destroyed the electorate’s confidence in all politicians, of every party. This, coupled with voter’s uncertainty about Conservative policies on the economy amongst other things and a reinvigorated Gordon Brown means that the election is now wide open, with daily opinion polls that point to everything from a Labour fourth term, a hung Parliament, and a small Tory majority. The only poll that counts is of course the one that has been long forecast to be held on May the 6th, and it is only then that Cameron will know if his bid to change the Conservative Party has really paid off.

Page 10: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 10

2010 opinion Polls

The opinion polls since the last General Election have been characterised by extraordinary volatility. In the whole of the period from Black Wednesday in 1992 to 2005 Labour was ahead for all except a couple of polls taken at the height of the Foot and Mouth crisis. In this Parliament, that lead disappeared.

From David Cameron’s election as Tory leader at the end of 2005, the Tories took a small poll lead. Then in 2007 when Gordon Brown took over from Tony Blair Labour took back the lead and rapidly expanded it to 11% as speculation about an early election grew, only for it to disappear during the Tory conference week. The Tories have maintained a lead ever since then but it has yo-yoed up and down as Labour has several times started to build a recovery but seen it torpedoed by events such as the Damian McBride scandal. At peak the Tory lead reached 26% in the summer of 2008 according to YouGov.

Following the parliamentary expenses scandal and the 2009 Euro Elections a further phenomenon emerged – an extraordinary high total level of support for minor parties (SNP, Plaid Cymru, BNP, UKIP and the Greens) – sometimes as high as a total of 20%. The further time has passed since the expenses scandal, this vote for “others” has drifted back down.

Since January 2010 Labour has staged an impressive fightback. The Tory lead has shrunk from 12% to as low as 2% according to YouGov, and whilst the headline Tory lead hasn’t gone quite as low according to other pollsters, the general trend has been the same.

There are an unprecedented number of polling companies in the field this year, as the potentially close result means many companies are anxious to prove their credentials. So far ten have published UK polls:

YouGov are the main online pollster and showing the smallest Tory lead – they were •extremely accurate in predicting Boris Johnson’s London Mayor victory. Their poll for the Sun has been creating much of the media narrative as it comes out daily.

BPIX uses YouGov to do its research so has identical methodology.•

ICM is seen as the “gold standard” by most psephologists.•

Ipsos MORI tends to produce results which fluctuate more than the others.•

Populus and ComRes are the other long-term pollsters who were operating in 2005.•

Harris is a familiar name from past UK elections making a comeback.•

Opinium and TNS BMRB are newcomers to polling UK elections.•

Angus Reid is a highly regarded pollster in Canada, making its first foray into the UK •market. Its online polling is at the opposite extreme to YouGov’s, showing a strong Tory lead of about 12%.

Page 11: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 11

The pollsters all usually show the same trends but have radically different levels of support showing for the main parties, hence a Tory lead that can vary between 2% and 12% according to different pollsters in the same week. This is primarily down to differences in methodology: different pollsters pick their samples of voters in different ways, ask slightly different questions, filter and adjust differently to deal with “silent Tories”, likelihood of voting, undecided voters and for “false recall” of how people voted in 2005 (many people falsely remember voting for the winning party), and some pollsters have online panels whilst others phone randomised phone numbers.

The increasing prevalence of wildly varying swings in different regions and seats because of local factors means that national polls are in any case not a very good indicator of the final result. More useful are polls of the marginal seats. There have been a limited number of these since January. They show the same tightening trend as the national polls but with the Tories doing a few percent better in their target seats than elsewhere. This could mean that the Tories can still win a narrow majority based on national opinion polls that would point to a hung parliament.

Page 12: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 12

SEcTIon 2

Guide to the Battlefield Seats

Page 13: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 13

From Votes to Seats

The UK electoral system can translate votes into seats in very strange ways. This currently tends to help Labour because:

Labour’s vote is more evenly distributed round the country than the Tories’, which •piles up inefficiently in their strongholds

Turnout is lower in Labour’s best seats•

Labour seats are on average slightly smaller in electorate than Tory ones because •between boundary reviews there is usually population flow from urban to suburban and rural areas.

Because of these factors, unless the Tories do a lot better in their target seats than nationwide, they need a poll lead of at least 6% over Labour to even become the largest party, and a lead of 9% to get a parliamentary majority.

This means that there is a high chance of a Hung Parliament, with no party having an overall majority, for the first time since the 1970s. The chances of this happening have increased partly because there are now so many third party MPs, whereas forty or fifty years ago the Liberals only had half-a-dozen MPs.

Boundary changes

The findings of a major review of the boundaries of parliamentary constituencies have been implemented since the last General Election. The net impact of this has helped the Tories and damaged Labour because the Boundary Commission seeks to make constituency electorates as equal as possible, bearing in mind certain other criteria, and across the UK the general pattern is of population movement from urban Labour areas to more Conservative rural and suburban areas.

The review created extra parliamentary seats in eleven counties and abolished a parliamentary seat in each of the six old metropolitan counties and London. It also tweaked the boundaries in many other seats, again in net terms benefitting the Tories as the notional results have “flipped” more seats in their direction than towards Labour. This means that some sitting MPs are defending seats that on the new boundaries would have been won by a different party last time.

Page 14: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

The net impact of the boundary changes is:

Party Actual 2005 result notional 2005 result on new Boundaries

change

Labour 356 349 -7

Conservative 198 210 +12

Lib Dem 62 62 0

Northern Ireland parties

18 18 0

SNP 6 6 0

Plaid Cymru 3 2 -1

Others 3 3 0

totAL 646 650 +4

the winning line - 117 tory targets

The slight increase in the number of MPs means that the number required for an overall majority is now 326. Given that the Tories start with a notional 209 seats (now that the Speaker is not a Conservative MP) they must make 117 gains from other parties to form a majority.

The easiest 117 seats for the Tories to gain consist of 90 Labour seats, 24 Lib Dem seats, 2 SNP seats and the seat of independent Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern MP Dr Richard Taylor. These seats have majorities of up to about 5,000 and require a swing of up to 6% to change hands.

Because the Lib Dems and SNP are adept at holding seats as incumbents, it may be that the Tories need to take safer Labour seats than those in the first 117 Tory targets in order to form a majority.

The 117 targets are located all over the UK, but they are not evenly distributed: 16 are in the North West, 16 in the West Midlands, 15 in the South East, and 12 each in the Yorkshire, South West and London regions; 9 in the East Midlands, 8 in the East of England, 5 in Wales,4 in Scotland and just one in the North East.

There are significant clusters: seventeen seats in the “Pennine Belt” of East Lancashire and West Yorkshire where high levels of working-class owner occupation create electoral volatility; seven seats on the west side of the West Midlands conurbation where manufacturing dominates the economy; four in each of Kent, Sussex, Hampshire, Devon and Cornwall.

The seats include a high number of coastal towns which were historically safely Conservative but are now highly marginal – a phenomenon caused by urban working class and liberal voters retiring to the seaside. They are also dominated by medium sized

general election guide 2010 14

Page 15: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

towns – because towns of exactly the right size to merit just one constituency will tend to include a mix of middle and working class areas in the same seat and hence it will be marginal, whereas bigger cities tend to have their Tory suburbs and Labour inner areas and estates in different seats.

For the political parties their “ground campaign” – canvassing, leafleting, direct mail, billboard advertising and key campaigner visits – will be extremely focussed on these 117 key seats, and indeed on the subset of them where the outcome appears to be in doubt.

turnout

One of the big unknowns of this election will be turnout, which was at historically very low levels of 59 and 61% in 2001 and 2005, compared to 75-80% at most post-war elections. Whilst the expenses scandal will possibly depress turnout, the closeness of the election compared to recent Labour “walkovers” should boost it – there is more reason to vote if you think you can affect the outcome. If more voters do turn out they are intrinsically unpredictable because they have not voted recently. Higher turnout may invalidate recent opinion poll findings because most pollsters only count the opinions of people who say they are 100% likely to vote.

general election guide 2010 15

Page 16: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

The 117 seats the Tories need to gain to form a government

Seats are ranked in order of marginality, with the notional 2005 winning party and the % swing required for the Tories to gain the seat shown.

We have only shown the candidates for the first and second place parties, except in rare cases where the seat is a three-way marginal.

1 Gillingham & rainham Lab 0.02%

A 1997 Labour gain, this part of the Medway towns is one of a cluster of marginal seats in North Kent.

Lab: Paul clark MP

con: rehman christi

Clark is a junior Transport Minister and has held the seat since 1997. Christi was a Labour candidate in the last General Election before defecting.

2 crawley Lab 0.04%

Crawley was a 1997 Labour gain and is a new town where the main employer is Gatwick Airport. The local Labour Party has staged something of a fightback in recent council by-elections but has been hit by the retirement of Laura Moffat MP just weeks before the election.

Lab: chris oxlade

con: Henry Smith

Oxlade is a local County Councillor and radio DJ.

Smith has been Leader of West Sussex County Council since 2003. He runs a property investment business based in Crawley.

3 York outer Ld 0.22%

This new seat forms a suburban doughnut around York and includes the University.

Ld: Madeleine Kirk

con: Julian Sturdy

Kirk is currently a local councillor, and a Director of the York Theatre Royal Board. She works for a large social research charity. Sturdy is a local farmer, and was a local councillor, with responsibility for Transport from 2003 until May 2007.

general election guide 2010 16

Page 17: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 17

4 romsey & Southampton north Ld 0.23%

Romsey was gained by the Lib Dems in a by-election in 2000 and has been a closely fought marginal since then. Boundary changes have helped the Tories.

Ld: Sandra Gidley MP

con: caroline nokes

Gidley was elected to the seat in a 2000 by-election. She has been Liberal Democrat Shadow Minister for Health since 2006 and sits on the Health Select Committee. Noakes has been a member of Test Valley Borough Council since 1991. She contested the Romsey seat in 2005, achieving a swing of 2.3%.

5 Harlow Lab 0.29%

An Essex New Town where Armed Forces Minister Bill Rammell was lucky to hold on in 2005.

Lab: Bill rammell MP

con: robert Halfon

Rammell has served as a Armed Forces Minister since 2009. He has been MP for Harlow since the 1997 general election. Halfon is an Advisory Board Member of the Centre for Social Justice which was set up by Iain Duncan Smith. He is also former Chief of Staff to Oliver Letwin MP.

6 cheltenham Ld 0.33%

The spa town and home to the GCHQ spy centre was controversially gained by the Lib Dems in 1992 when the local Tories split over running a black parliamentary candidate.

Ld: Martin Horwood MP

con: Mark coote

Horwood is Liberal Democrat Shadow Minister for Environment and for Climate Change. He was elected in the 2005 General Election. Coote contested the seat of Hastings & Rye in both 2001 and 2005 elections. He is currently a national fundraising director for Cancer Research UK.

7 croydon central Lab 0.36%

Labour from 1997 to 2005, the Tories gained Croydon Central then but must now gain it all over again because of boundary changes. In the mean time the Tory MP Andrew Pelling has been sitting as an Independent after being arrested over allegations of assaulting his wife. He will stand as an Independent in the election.

con: Gavin Barwell

Lab: Gerry ryan

Page 18: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

Barwell was Chief Operating Officer of the Conservative Party from 2003 to May 2006. He is currently the Cabinet Member for Community Safety & Cohesion on Croydon Council. Ryan is a Croydon Councillor and stood in Croydon South in 2005.

8 Portsmouth north Lab 0.38%

Dominated by the Royal Navy and associated defence industries, this seat includes a mix of suburbs and council estates.

Lab: Sarah Mccarthy-Fry MP

con: Penny Mordaunt

McCarthy-Fry is currently Exchequer Secretary at HM Treasury. She has been member for Portsmouth North since the 2005 general election. Mordaunt was Head of Broadcasting for the Tories under Hague. She has also served as Head of Foreign Press to President George Bush, and currently runs a London based Media Company.

9 Battersea Lab 0.41%

Labour has already been wiped out at a local government level in Wandsworth by a combination of gentrification and the campaigning vigour of the low-tax Wandsworth Tories, so Battersea looks very difficult to hold.

Lab: Martin Linton MP

con: Jane ellison

Linton, a former Guardian journalist, was elected in 1997. He was joint campaign manager for Peter Hain’s bid for the deputy leadership. Ellison contested Pendle in the 2005 General Election. She has worked for John Lewis since graduating from Oxford University.

10 Hove Lab 0.50%

Hove was a completely unexpected gain for Labour in 1997 and an even more unexpected hold in 2005. Long term cultural change in Brighton and Hove favours Labour and the Greens though this seat, unlike the two Brighton ones, has many pensioners. Celia Barlow may benefit from an incumbency bonus as a first term MP.

Lab: celia Barlow MP

con: Mike Weatherley

Barlow is PPS to Treasury Minister Ian Pearson MP and has held the seat since 2005. Weatherley is European Vice President for a World Wide Film Licensing company and former Crawley councillor.

general election guide 2010 18

Page 19: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

11 Somerton & Frome Ld 0.56%

Boundary changes have helped the Tories in this rural Somerset seat but like many Lib Dem MPs, David Heath has a strong personal vote.

Ld: david Heath MP

con: Annunziata rees-Mogg

Heath is currently Liberal Democrat Shadow Leader of the House of Commons and has held the seat since 1997. Rees-Mogg has worked as a journalist for the last decade, including being a leader writer for the Daily Telegraph.

12 eastleigh Ld 0.56%

Lib Dem held since a 1994 by-election, Chris Huhne will hope that his high personal profile helps him hold this Hampshire seat.

Ld: chris Huhne MP

con: Maria Hutchings

Huhne is Liberal Democrat Shadow Home Secretary and has held the seat since 2005. Hutchings hit the headlines in the 2005 General Election for taking on Tony Blair about the closure of her autistic son’s special school.

13 Westmorland & Lonsdale Ld 0.85%

The Lib Dems will be hoping to hold this rural Cumbrian seat thanks to the hyperactive campaigning of MP Tim Farron, who should get an incumbency boost as a first-term MP.

Ld: tim Farron MP

con: Gareth McKeever

Farron is Liberal Democrat Shadow Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and has held the seat since 2005. McKeever has worked in finance for the last ten years, most recently as a senior executive at Morgan Stanley.

14 Milton Keynes north Lab 0.86%

Labour from 1997 to 2005, the Tories gained this seat then but must now gain it all over again because of boundary changes. Mark Lancaster should benefit from incumbency as a first term MP.

Lab: Andrew Pakes

con: Mark Lancaster MP

Pakes is a former NUS President and Southwark Councillor. Lancaster is Shadow Minister for International Development and has held the seat since 2005.

general election guide 2010 19

Page 20: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

15 Stroud Lab 0.93%

An unlikely Labour seat in rural Gloucestershire with a maverick MP. The town of Stroud itself has a radical tradition and a history of electing Green councillors.

Lab: david drew MP

con: neil carmichael

Drew is a Labour leftwinger. He has held the seat since 1997 and has been a member of the EFRA Select Committee since 2001. Carmichael is currently developing investment opportunities in Poland but has a background in agriculture, retaining active business interests in land management and livestock.

16 dartford Lab 0.95%

Dartford is a gritty commuter town in North Kent which was Labour from 1945 to 1970, again from 1974 to 1979 and since 1997. Labour will not be helped by the popular local MP Dr Howard Stoate standing down.

Lab: John Adams

con: Gareth Johnson

Adams is a freelance journalist. He joined the Bank of England after graduating from the University of Wales with a degree in physics. He later worked at the London Stock Exchange before joining the Financial Times Group as a journalist. Johnson is a solicitor and former Bexley councillor. He stood in Dartford at the 2005 general election, reducing the Labour majority to 706.

17 Basildon South & thurrock east Lab 1.07%

There have been dramatic boundary changes in Essex. The PM’s PPS Angela Smith has lost central Basildon to a new seat and seen the rest of her patch paired with Pitsea and other areas from Thurrock. Long term trends against Labour have been evident in south Essex in the last two general elections.

Lab: Angela e Smith MP

con: Steve Metcalfe

Smith is currently a Cabinet Office Minister and has held the seat since 1997. She was previously PPS to Gordon Brown as Prime Minister from 2007-09. Metcalfe works in the family printing business and is a former Epping Forest District Councillor. He contested Ilford North in 2005.

general election guide 2010 20

Page 21: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 21

18 ealing central & Acton Lab 1.08%

This is a new inner-suburban seat which looks set to be an extremely close fought three-way marginal.

Lab: Bassam Mahfouz

con: Angie Bray

Ld: Jon Ball

Mazhfouzis an Ealing Councillor and Labour Transport, Environment & Climate Change Spokesman. Bray worked for LBC radio for 8 years before becoming London Assembly member for London West Central between 2000 and 2008. Ball is an Ealing Councillor and contested Hayes & Harlington in 2005.

19 city of chester Lab 1.10%

Labour since 1997, when it was a target “Key Seat” for Labour, but never prior to that. This is typical of the middle-sized towns that predominate amongst marginals because they are about the right size to have one parliamentary seat and therefore combine Labour and Tory areas in the same constituency.

Lab: christine russell MP

con: Stephen Mosley

Russell is currently PPS to Ben Bradshaw MP and has held the seat since 1997. Mosely has been deputy leader of the Conservative group on Chester city council since 2007 and a Cheshire county councillor since 2005.

20 Hereford & South Herefordshire Ld 1.19%

A largely rural seat with Hereford itself being the home base of the SAS. The Lib Dems gained the seat from the Tories in 1997 and with MP Paul Keetch retiring they will find it tricky to hold on.

Ld: Sarah carr

con: Jesse norman

Carr works in telecoms having previously worked for the Lib Dem Whips’ office in the Lords. Norman is a former Director of Barclays. He left the City in 1997 in order to teach and do research at UCL. His recent book Compassionate Conservatism has been called the “handbook to Cameronism” by the Sunday Times.

21 colne Valley Lab 1.26%

Colne Valley in West Yorkshire has a unique electoral history, having been held by all three main parties in the last 30 years. It is part of the Pennine belt of seats with very high levels of owner-occupation. Kali Mountford MP is standing down.

Page 22: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 22

Lab: debbie Abrahams

con: Jason Mccartney

Abrahams is former Chair of Rochdale Primary Care Trust and she has a particular interest in health inequalities and child protection issues. McCartney spent 9 years as a officer in the RAF before becoming a journalist for ITV Yorkshire.

22 cardiff north Lab 1.26%

This is a very middle class seat and one of the best hopes for a Tory gain in Wales. It was only ever won once by Labour before 1997.

Lab: Julie Morgan MP

con: Jonathan evans

Morgan, the wife of former Labour First Minister of Wales Rhodri, and like him on the party’s soft left, has held the seat since 1997 and is a member of the Public Administration and Justice Select Committees. Evans was MP for Brecon and Radnorshire between 1992 and 1997. He has been MEP for Wales since 2000.

23 Hastings & rye Lab 1.27%

Hastings & Rye was a totally unexpected gain from third place for Labour in 1997, where the party went on to consolidate its position. The town of Hastings itself is economically depressed whilst other parts of the constituency are more prosperous and have a large number of pensioners.

Lab: Michael Jabez Foster MP

con: Amber rudd

Foster is Parliamentary Secretary for the Government Equalities Office. He has held the seat since 1997. Rudd has had a career in banking, venture capital and headhunting. She also writes for specialist publications on financial matters.

24 calder Valley Lab 1.37%

Like its neighbour Colne Valley, this is a seat where high levels of owner-occupation lead to a very volatile electorate. Chris McCafferty MP is standing down.

Lab: Stephanie Booth

con: craig Whittaker

Booth is Cherie Blair’s stepmother. Whittaker currently serves on the Cabinet of Calderdale Metropolitan Borough Council as the portfolio holder for Children and Young People’s Services. He is a retail manager by trade.

Page 23: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 23

25 Stourbridge Lab 1.46%

Stourbridge is a suburban Black Country constituency which went Labour for the first time in 1997. It was successfully defended by Labour in 2005 despite a late change of candidate, and the MP Lynda Waltho should benefit from an incumbency bonus at the end of her first term.

Lab: Lynda Waltho MP

con: Margot James

Waltho was elected in 2005 on a very small majority. She is currently PPS to Gillian Merron as Minister of State in the Department of Health. James is a highly successful PR executive who founded, and then sold, her own consultancy. She is tipped as a rising star in the Conservative Party.

26 carshalton & Wallington Ld 1.47%

This is one of a cluster of suburban seats in South West London gained by the Lib Dems in 1997.

Ld: tom Brake MP

con: Ken Andrew

Brake has been a Liberal Democrat Party spokesperson in parliament since shortly after his election in 1997. He is currently the Liberal Democrat Shadow Minister for the Home Office, and for London and the Olympics. Andrew is a former banker and an author who has written three non-fiction books.

27 Milton Keynes South Lab 1.52%

Boundary changes have made this half of the country’s largest New Town more vulnerable to the Tories than the old Milton Keynes SW was in 2005.

Lab: Phyllis Starkey MP

con: Iain Stewart

Starkey is the Chair of the Communities and Local Government Select Committee. She was elected in 1997. Stewart is currently a recruitment consultant. He is also a Parish Councillor.

28 corby Lab 1.56%

This constituency is sharply polarised between the Labour-voting former steel town of Corby itself and the rural Tory hinterland of East Northamptonshire. Labour has held the seat since 1997.

Lab: Phil Hope MP

con: Louise Bagshawe

Page 24: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 24

Hope is currently Minister of State for the Department of Health and the Minister for the East Midlands. Bagshawe has written twelve novels, some of which have entered the best-sellers list.

29 taunton deane Ld 1.65%

This Somerset seats oscillates between the Lib Dems and the Tories, being gained by the Lib Dems in 1997, going back to the Tories in 2001 and then back to Lib Dem in 2005.

Ld: Jeremy Browne MP

con: Mark Formosa

Browne is currently the Liberal Democrat Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury. Formosa is a Councillor on Restormel Borough Council. He contested this seat in 2005 when he cut the Liberal Democrat majority by 7,000 votes.

30 Perth & north Perthshire SnP 1.66%

This seat on the edge of the Highlands has been held by the SNP (with boundary changes in 2005) since a 1995 by-election.

SnP: Pete Wishart MP

con: Peter Lyburn

Wishart is the SNP spokesperson for Culture, Media and Sport, for Home Affairs, for Justice, and for International Development. He used to be a rock musician in the bands Big Country and Runrig. Lyburn previously stood for election to the Scottish Parliament in 2007. In his professional life he is a manager in an environmental consultancy and recycling business.

31 Vale of Glamorgan Lab 1.68%

Sitting MP John Smith is standing down. He held the seat from a 1989 by-election until 1992 when he lost by a tiny margin, then regained it in 1997. Historically it was a very strongly Tory seat.

Lab: Alana davies

con: Alun cairns

Davies, a town councillor and a borough councillor, has served as Mayor of Porthcawl Town Council twice and is currently Cabinet Member for Children & Young People on Bridgend County Borough Council Cairns is a former banker and has been a member of the Welsh Assembly for the South Wales West region since 1999.

Page 25: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 25

32 Swindon South Lab 1.75%

The growing town of Swindon’s local economy includes both the Honda car factory and part of the M4 corridor of high-tech industries. As such its voting patterns are closely linked to the state of the economy.

Lab: Anne Snelgrove MP

con: robert Buckland

Snelgrove, elected in 2005, is currently the Parliamentary Private Secretary to Prime Minister Gordon Brown. Buckland, a criminal barrister by profession, is an engaged local campaigner who is a governor of a local school. He was formerly a county councillor and a candidate for European and national elections.

33 dorset South Lab 1.86%

Dorset South is one of the most unlikely Labour seats in the country, its gain in 2001 being seen as the high-water mark of New Labour’s appeal to previously safe Tory areas. The Labour vote is concentrated in Weymouth and Portland.

Lab: Jim Knight MP

con: richard drax

Knight is a Minister of State in the Department for Work and Pensions and the Minister for the South West. Drax is a former soldier who left the army for a career in journalism. His most recent role was as the senior reporter for BBC Radio Solent and BBC South Today.

34 northampton South Lab 1.89%

The Tories gained Northampton South from Labour in 2005 but MP Brian Binley has to regain it as boundary changes have made it notionally Labour again. Former Labour MP Tony Clarke has been expelled from the Party and is running as an Independent.

con: Brian Binley MP

Lab: clyde Loakes

Binley was a successful businessman before being elected to the House of Commons in 2005. He currently sits on the Business, Innovation and Skills Select Committee. Loakes was Leader of Waltham Forest Council from 2003 to 2009.

Page 26: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 26

35 High Peak Lab 1.90%

This seat covers the Peak District in Derbyshire and has been Labour since 1997 after 27 years being held by the Tories. MP Tom Levitt is standing down, making it more vulnerable to the Tories.

Lab: caitlin Bisknell

con: Andrew Bingham

Bisknell is currently the Leader of the Labour group on High Peak Borough Council. Bingham, a candidate for the seat in 2005, is a councillor on High Peak Borough Council where he serves as Chairman of the Social Inclusion & Community Select Committee and the Chairman of the Development Plan Select Committee.

36 Loughborough Lab 1.94%

Loughborough is a Leicestershire seat which Labour can usually win – holding it from 1945 to 1979 and from 1997 onwards.

Lab: Andy reed MP

con: nicky Morgan

Reed, an MP since 1997, had a long run as Parliamentary Private Secretary to a number of Ministers, first at the Department of Culture, Media and Sport in 2000. In 2007 he returned to the back benches Morgan is an Oxford graduate and former city lawyer who ran as a candidate for Islington South in 2001. She was a candidate for Loughborough in 2005 when she achieved a 5% swing to the Conservatives.

37 Aberconwy Lab 1.96%

Aberconwy is a newly created seat in North Wales. With the Labour-voting town of Bangor removed from the old Conwy seat as part of the changes, the Tories are hopeful of a gain here.

Lab: ronnie Hughes

con: Guto Bebb

Hughes is a former council leader for Conwy County Borough Council and current cabinet member for Business Management. Bebb is self employed and runs his own Economic Development Consultancy. He was a candidate for this seat in 2005 when he managed to achieve a 5% swing from the Labour Party.

Page 27: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 27

38 Watford Lab 1.97%

Watford is one of the few three-way marginals in the country. It has usually been won by the party that wins the national election, but this time round the Tories are starting in third place with the Lib Dems a strong second.

Lab: claire Ward MP

con: richard Harrington

Ld: Sal Brinton

Ward has been MP for Watford since 1997. She is currently Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Ministry of Justice. Harrington is a property developer and Chair of the Executive Board of Conservative Friends of Israel. He was a strong supporter of Ken Clarke’s leadership campaign in 2001. Brinton contested this seat in 2005. She has a particular interest in education, skills and learning and has worked as a venture capitalist, investing in high-tech companies, and in the construction industry.

39 Birmingham edgbaston Lab 2.00%

Edgbaston was historically the middle-class Tory stronghold in Birmingham, but has been Labour-held since 1997.

Lab: Gisela Stuart MP

con: deirdre Alden

Stuart has been MP for Edgbaston since 1997. She is a former member of the Foreign Affairs committee, and former Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Department of Health. Alden is a Birmingham City Councillor and freelance writer. She is President of MRSA Support.

40 Stafford Lab 2.00%

Stafford was always Tory until 1997 but has been held by Labour’s David Kidney since then. Labour’s chances of holding the seat have been seriously damaged by the 2009 scandal over needless deaths at the local hospital.

Lab: david Kidney MP

con: Jeremy Lefroy

Kidney has been MP for Stafford since 1997, when he beat Conservative candidate David Cameron. He is currently Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Department of Energy and Climate Change. Lefroy is a former borough councillor and contested the seat in 2005. He runs a small business distributing fair-trade coffee and cocoa from small-scale African farmers.

Page 28: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 28

41 Angus SnP 2.10%

Angus has been held by the SNP ever since 1987 so it looks like a particularly tough seat for the Tories to gain.

SnP: Michael Weir MP

con: Alberto costa

Weir has been MP for Angus since 2001. He is the SNP’s spokesman on Business, Enterprise and the Environment and is strongly opposed to nuclear power. Costa is a solicitor, who previously worked for the Treasury Solicitor.

42 Broxtowe Lab 2.22%

Broxtowe consists of suburban areas around Nottingham, and was safe Tory until 1997, since when it has been held by Labour MP Dr Nick Palmer.

Lab: nick Palmer MP

con: Anna Sourby

Palmer has been MP for Broxtowe since 2001. He served as PPS to Malcolm Wicks at DBERR until 2008 and is currently a member of the Justice Select Committee. Sourby is a journalist and criminal barrister. She contested the nearby seat of Gedling in 2005.

43 chippenham Ld 2.35%

Chippenham is a newly created seat in Wiltshire. It is notionally Lib Dem as it consists primarily of the Lib Dem dominated towns of Bradford-on-Avon, Chippenham and Melksham.

Ld: duncan Hames

con: Wilfred emmanuel-Jones

Hames is a small business owner and former district councillor. He is a board member at the South West of England Regional Development Agency. Emmanuel-Jones is a former BBC producer and director. He is now the owner of “The Black Farmer” food label and one of the Tories’ highest profile ethnic minority candidates.

44 Burton Lab 2.40%

Burton is a brewing and manufacturing town in Staffordshire. The sitting MP is standing down but Labour is putting up a strong local fight to hold this seat.

Lab: ruth Smeeth

con: Andrew Griffiths

Smeeth is a former trade union officer and public affairs professional.

Page 29: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 29

Griffiths was Chief of Staff to Eric Pickles MP as Conservative Party Chairman. He is a former Halifax manager who contested Dudley North in 2001 and West Midlands region in 2004 European election.

45 Brighton Kemptown Lab 2.42%

This is the eastern and more marginal of the Brighton seats. Long term trends are against the Tories in Brighton.

Lab: Simon Burgess

con: Simon Kirby

Burgess is Vice-Chair of Labour’s National Policy Forum. He was formerly Leader of Brighton and Hove City Council and a research assistant to Dr Des Turner MP, the incumbent MP, for 12 years. Kirby is currently East Sussex County Council cabinet member for regeneration. He set up Brighton’s radio station with business partner Martin Webb.

46 Bury north Lab 2.52%

This is one of a cluster of marginal seats to the north west of Manchester. The Labour MP David Chaytor has had to resign due to the expenses scandal, which may hurt his party’s chances of holding on here.

Lab: Maryam Khan

con: david nuttall

Khan is a 27 year old solicitor. She is a Manchester City Councillor, becoming the youngest ever councillor in 2006. Nuttall, a solicitor, has contested a number of elections, including the same seat in 2005 and the 1999 Yorkshire and Humber region European election.

47 redditch Lab 2.60%

Former Home Secretary Jacqui Smith has been MP for the Worcestershire New Town of Redditch since 1997. She is a formidable local campaigner but her chances have been badly damaged by the expenses scandal.

Lab: Jacqui Smith MP

con: Karen Lumley

Smith is a former Home Secretary, Chief Whip and Minister for Education, Trade and Industry and Health. Lumley is a former District and County Councillor. She contested this seat in 2001 and 2005, as well as the Welsh Elections in 1999.

Page 30: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 30

48 rugby Lab 2.60%

There have been significant boundary changes in Warwickshire, and whilst the authoritative Rallings and Thrasher believe this is notionally a Labour seat, other sources think it is already notionally Tory.

Lab: Andy King

con: Mark Pawsey

King was MP for Rugby and Kenilworth between 1997 and 2005 when he lost the seat. Pawsey has worked as a chartered Surveyor and later Director of a catering company. He is a former borough councillor who contested Nuneaton at the 2005 General Election.

49 Pendle Lab 2.65%

Pendle is one of a group of Lancashire Pennine seats that Labour gained in 1992. Local politics here are volatile and the seat is a rare three-way marginal.

Lab: Gordon Prentice MP

con: Andrew Stephenson

Ld: Afzal Anwar

Prentice has been MP for Pendle since 1992 and has a reputation as a rebellious backbencher. He is a member of the Public Accounts Committee. Stephenson is a former councillor, who runs his own insurance consultancy in Greater Manchester. Anwar is a barrister working for the Nelson branch of a Liverpool law firm.

50 Wolverhampton South West Lab 2.66%

Once a safe Tory seat for Enoch Powell, this seat is divided between a Labour-voting Asian inner city area and middle class suburbs. It has been Labour since 1997.

Lab: rob Marris MP

con: Paul uppal

Marris has been MP for Wolverhampton South West since 2001. A qualified solicitor, he is Parliamentary Private Secretary to Shaun Woodward as Northern Ireland Secretary. He won House Magazine’s Backbencher of the Year in 2008. Uppal is a Birmingham-born Sikh of East African descent. He contested Birmingham Yardley in 2005.

51 carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South Lab 2.66%

Nick Ainger has been Labour MP for this rural West Wales seat since its creation in 1997 and for one of its predecessor seats, Pembroke, from 1992.

Lab: nick Ainger MP

con: Simon Hart

Page 31: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 31

Ainger has been MP for Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South since 1992. He has served as Parliamentary Private Secretary and Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Wales Office, a Whip and is currently a member of the Treasury Select Committee.

Hart is Chief Executive of the Countryside Alliance. He was previously a chartered surveyor and served with the Territorial Army for five years.

52 South ribble Lab 2.71%

One of a cluster of Lancashire marginals, the economy here is focussed on manufacturing (BAE Systems and Leyland DAF). Labour has held the seat since 1997.

Lab: david Borrow MP

con: Lorraine Fullbrook

Borrow has been MP for South Ribble since 1997. A former Parliamentary Private Secretary at DEFRA and the Department for Transport, he is currently a member of the Defence Select Committee.

Fullbrook has been a PR and media strategist to a number of large corporations, and is a former leader of Hart District Council. She contested this seat at the 2005 election.

53 derbyshire South Lab 2.73%

Derbyshire South is polarised between the former mining town of Swadlincote and rural Tory areas. Although Labour held since 1997, the long term trends have been towards the Tories here. Sitting MP Mark Todd is retiring.

Lab: Michael edwards

con: Heather Wheeler

Edwards is a Nottingham City Councillor. He has a background in computing and worked for British Rail. Wheeler is Leader of the Conservatives on South Derbyshire District Council. She has fought two General Elections in Coventry.

54 Bristol north West Lab 2.85%

Boundary changes mean that this seat now includes the safest Tory suburbs in Bristol and is far more vulnerable to the Tories.

Lab: Sam townend

con: charlotte Leslie

Townend is a practising barrister and former Lambeth Councillor. Leslie has a range of experience - from charity work to politics, television and sports coaching. She is former editor of the Bow Group magazine ‘Crossbow’.

Page 32: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 32

55 dumfries & Galloway Lab 2.87%

This might be a difficult seat for the Tories to gain given that recent Scottish opinion polls have shown Labour’s vote holding up well North of the Border.

Lab: russell Brown MP

con: Peter duncan

Brown is currently PPS to Jim Murphy as Secretary of State for Scotland and Gareth Thomas as Minister of State at the Department for International Development.

Duncan is a local councillor and former business and communications consultation. He was MP for Galloway & Upper Nithsdale between 2001 and 2005, but following boundary changes, was unsuccessful in contesting Dumfries & Galloway in 2007.

56 tamworth Lab 2.94%

This Staffordshire town has had Brian Jenkins as its Labour MP since a 1996 by-election. It is fairly typical of the “Middle England” towns that are crucial to determining which party wins a General Election.

Lab: Brian Jenkins MP

con: christopher Pincher

Jenkins is a member of the Defence select committee and a former college lecturer. Pincher has a background in IT consultancy and is a local school governor. He contested the seat in 2005.

57 torbay Ld 3.01%

This Devon seaside resort has been held by Adrian Sanders MP for the Lib Dems since 1997. The seat has a very high UKIP vote, which might siphon off votes the Tories need.

Ld: Adrian Sanders MP

con: Marcus Wood

Sanders is Liberal Democrat Deputy Chief Whip and a member of the Culture, Media and Sport Select Committe. Wood stood in Torbay in 2005. He runs an executive search firm, and was campaign manager to Nick Bye, Torbay’s first directly elected mayor.

58 cleethorpes Lab 3.03%

The North Lincolnshire coastal seat of Cleethorpes has been held by Labour’s Shona McIsaac MP since 1997 but was previously always a Tory held seat.

Lab: Shona McIsaac MP

con: Martin Vickers

Page 33: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 33

McIsaac resigned as PPS to Caroline Flint at the Department of Health in 2007, when Gordon Brown became Prime Minister. She is a member of the Yorkshire and the Humber Select Committee. Vickers is a local councillor who previously acted as Constituency Agent to Edward Leigh MP. He contested the seat in 2005, and was reselected at an open primary in 2006.

59 Sutton & cheam Ld 3.11%

This is one of a group of south west London suburban seats that the Lib Dems gained in 1997 and have held ever since.

Ld: Paul Burstow MP

con: Philippa Stroud

Burstow is the Liberal Democrat chief whip. He currently sits on the Finance and Services and Public Accounts Select Committees. Stroud is Executive director of the Centre for Social Justice think tank. She stood against Clare Short in Ladywood in 2001.

60 Swindon north Lab 3.12%

Michael Wills is retiring as Labour MP for this Wiltshire seat, so the Tory chances of gaining it are increased by the loss of his incumbency. This seat is heavily dependent on manufacturing industry jobs.

Lab: Victor Agarwal

con: Justin tomlinson

Agarwal is a Surrey County Councillor and works for an airline. Tomlinson is a local councillor and former national chairman of Conservative Future.

61 Westminster north Lab 3.30%

Extensive boundary changes have recreated the old seat of Westminster North, decoupling the combination of deprived wards in the north of the two neighbouring boroughs of Kensington & Chelsea and Westminster which had returned Labour MP Karen Buck since 1997. The new seat balances the four remaining Labour wards in Westminster with six Tory ones. However, Buck will have been hearted by an excellent council by-election result here for Labour in December 2009.

Lab: Karen Buck MP

con: Joanne cash

Buck is a prominent figure in the London Labour Party who has been MP here since 1997. She was a junior Transport Minister in 2005-06 but now focuses on defending her constituency. Cash is a barrister who is part of David Cameron’s inner circle. She recently attempted to resign after a dispute with the chair of the local party, then rescinded this.

Page 34: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 34

62 Worcester Lab 3.39%

“Worcester Woman” was with “Mondeo Man” one of the ways New Labour defined the key target voters of Middle England who would return the Party to power in 1997. The seat has stayed loyal to Labour since then but remains a pivotal marginal.

Lab: Michael Foster MP

con: robin Walker

Foster has been MP here since 1997 and came to public attention for promoting the fox-hunting ban. He is a junior DFID Minister. Walker was the Conservative Candidate for Worcester in 2001, serving as press officer for Oliver Letwin in 2005. His father served as the local MP from 1961 to 1992.

63 cornwall north Ld 3.43%

A long term Non-Conformist radical tradition has seen this seat return Liberal or Lib Dem MPs until 1950, from 1966 to 1979 and since 1992. It is difficult to see the Tories gaining it as easily as the raw majority figure suggests.

Ld: dan rogerson MP

con: Sian Flynn

Rogerson is Liberal Democrat Shadow Minister for Communities and Local Government, as well as a Whip. He sits on the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committe. Flynn is a former councillor in Surrey borough councillor and NHS board member. She works in arts fund-raising.

64 Harrow east Lab 3.44%

Labour’s majority here in North West London had already been slashed in half by adverse boundary changes. MP Tony McNulty’s high-profile entanglement in the expenses scandal has further damaged Labour’s chances of holding on here.

Lab: tony Mcnulty MP

con: Bob Blackman

McNulty resigned as a DWP minister in June 2009. Blackman is a GLA member and Conservative whip. He has been Regulatory Compliance Manager for BT for the last 8 years.

65 richmond Park Ld 3.55%

This affluent South West London seat has been tightly contested between the Tories and Lib Dems for many years and sees high-profile environmentalist Tory Zac Goldsmith take on former Lib Dem London Mayoral candidate Susan Kramer, who may get an incumbency bonus as she is just completing her first term as MP.

Page 35: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 35

Ld: Susan Kramer MP

con: Zac Goldsmith

Kramer is the Lib Dem Shadow DFID Secretary. Goldsmith is the wealthy former editor of The Ecologist and deputy chair of the Conservative’s Quality of Life Policy Group. He is the son of Referendum Party founder Sir James Goldsmith.

66 Great Yarmouth Lab 3.69%

The coastal town of Great Yarmouth has surprisingly high levels of deprivation and unemployment for Norfolk, and the 2009 PoliticsHome poll of marginal seats predicted it would stay Labour.

Lab: Anthony Wright MP

con: Brandon Lewis

Wright is a member of the Business, Innovation and Skills Select Committee and has an engineering and trade union background. Lewis is a barrister and company director. He has been leader of Brentwood Council since 2004, and contested the seat of Sherwood in 2001.

67 cheadle Ld 3.70%

This prosperous suburb of Greater Manchester was one of the few seats the Tories lost in 2001 having held on in 1997. They failed to retake it in a 2005 by-election so it is perceived as one of their trickier target seats to gain.

Ld: Mark Hunter MP

con: Ben Jeffreys

Hunter is PPS to Nick Clegg as Leader of the Liberal Democrats and the Liberal Democrat Shadow Minister for Transport Jeffreys is a teacher, and was appointed to the Conservative’s Education Policy Group.

68 eltham Lab 3.80%

This is the most Tory part of the south east London Borough of Greenwich and is finely balanced between pro-Labour council estates and more Conservative suburban owner-occupied housing. Peter Bottomley was the Tory MP from 1975 to 1997 when he moved to a safer seat, since when it has been held by Labour’s Clive Efford.

Lab: clive efford MP

con: david Gold

Efford is a former London taxi driver. He was a Greenwich councillor from 1986-1998 and was first elected as MP for Eltham in 1997. Gold is a development director at Brighton College, and a former business consultant and aide to William Hague.

Page 36: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 36

69 Brigg & Goole Lab 3.92%

This seat is balanced between Labour-voting Goole, previously in Yorkshire, and Tory-voting rural areas around Brigg, previously in Lincolnshire. Ian Cawsey has been the Labour MP since the seat was created in 1997.

Lab: Ian cawsey MP

con: Andrew Percy

Cawsey formerly worked in IT for Imperial foods and Seven Seas Heath Care. He was first elected to Brigg & Goole in 1997. Percy is a school teacher and assistant to David Davis MP. He has been a Hull City councillor since 2000 and contested the seat of Normanton in 2005.

70 Portsmouth South Ld 4.00%

This is one of the most densely populated seats outside London, with its economy dominated by the Royal Navy. Hyper-active Lib Dem MP Mike Hancock has represented it since 1997 after holding it from a 1984 by-election to 1987 and losing it by only a few hundred votes in both 1987 and 1992.

Ld: Mike Hancock MP

con: Flick drummond

Hancock is a member of the Defence Select Committee and has previously been a Liberal Democrat spokesperson for Defence and Planning. Drummond is a former Winchester councillor. She contested the seat of Southampton Itchen in 2005.

71 Bedford Lab 4.02%

Bedford saw a set-back for the Tories in 2009 when they were beaten by the Lib Dems in a by-election for the town’s powerful Executive Mayor. The seat is quite ethnically diverse with a sizeable Asian community and the UK’s largest Italian community.

Lab: Patrick Hall MP

con: richard Fuller

Hall was previously PPS to Caroline Flint as Minister of State, Foreign and Commonwealth Office and currently serves on the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Select Committee. Fuller contested Bedford in the 2005 General Election. He has been a partner in a venture capital and a management consulting firm.

Page 37: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 37

72 Stevenage Lab 4.03%

Barbara Follett is stepping down as MP here after 13 years. Stevenage is a Hertfordshire New Town with a particularly strong local Labour election machine to the extent that Labour has 30 of the 39 seats on the District Council. Follett’s replacement as candidate is the council Leader, Sharon Taylor.

Lab: Sharon taylor

con: Stephen McPartland

Taylor is currently leader of Stevenage council. McPartland is Director of Membership for BritishAmerican Business.

73 Hendon Lab 4.03%

Hendon is an ethnically diverse north London suburban seat, with a large Jewish community. Andrew Dismore has been the Labour MP since 1997 and is viewed as an extremely active constituency campaigner.

Lab: Andrew dismore MP

con: Matthew offord

Dismore chairs the Joint Committee on Human Rights. Offord is Deputy leader of Barnet council. He has worked as a BBC political analyst and contested the seat of Barnsley East and Mexborough in 2001.

74 chatham & Aylesford Lab 4.13%

This is the best seat for Labour of the North Kent marginals, but that isn’t saying much! A 2009 council by-election in the seat saw Labour lose its safest ward.

Lab: Jonathan Shaw MP

con: tracey crouch

Shaw is currently Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State, Department for Work and Pensions and Minister for the South East. Crouch is a former researcher to Michael Howard and Chief of Staff to David Davis. She is currently Senior Political Advisor at Norwich Union.

75 Brentford & Isleworth Lab 4.14%

Ann Keen has been Labour MP here since 1997 but with sharply decreasing majorities. Adverse press coverage of Mrs Keen and her husband Alan (MP for the next door seat) during the expenses furore, and voter hostility to the expansion of Heathrow Airport may make it difficult for her to hang on.

Lab: Ann Keen MP

con: Mary MacLeod

Page 38: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 38

Keen is currently Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State at the Department of Health and was previously Gordon Brown’s PPS. MacLeod is a management consultant and former policy advisor at Buckingham Palace. She is Chair of the Conservative Candidates Association.

76 Bradford West Lab 4.17%

Despite having stayed Labour throughout the Thatcher years, this seat is trending towards the Tories. In part this is due to ethnic politics: Labour MP Marsha Singh is a Sikh representing a heavily Muslim seat, whilst the Tories have tended to run Muslim candidates. Meanwhile some of Labour’s white working class vote has shifted to the BNP.

Lab: Marsha Singh MP

con: Zahid Iqbal

Singh is PPS to Phil Woolas as Minister of State at the Home Office and HM Treasury. He sits on the International Development Select Committee. Iqbal contested the seat of Bradford North in 2001. He runs a property development company.

77 rossendale & darwen Lab 4.18%

A heavily owner-occupied Lancashire Pennine seat, Rossendale & Darwen was won narrowly by Janet Anderson in 1992 but has always stayed better territory for the Tories than the national average.

Lab: Janet Anderson MP

con: Jake Berry

Anderson sits on a number of select committees, including the Culture Media and Sport Select Committee. Berry is a property and construction solicitor. He has contested two local elections, and was the Election Agent for the Liverpool City Seats Initiative in 2005.

78 Hammersmith Lab 4.22%

David Cameron’s Tories seem particularly popular in this rapidly gentrifying part of West London. Labour will try to fight back by highlighting the cuts made by the flagship Tory borough council here and mobilising its core vote on large estates like White City.

Lab: Andrew Slaughter MP

con: Shaun Bailey

Slaughter, a barrister specialising in criminal law, is currently the MP for Ealing Acton and Shepherd’s Bush. He is a former leader of Hammersmith and Fulham council. Bailey is Director of MyGeneration, a youth charity. The Evening Standard has named him as one of London’s 1000 most influential people. He is one of the Tories’ highest profile ethnic minority candidates.

Page 39: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 39

79 Blackpool north & cleveleys Lab 4.24%

This is the easier of the two Blackpool seats for the Tories to gain. Like many seaside towns it had never been Labour before it was gained by Joan Humble in 1997. Labour’s chances here have been hit by her very late retirement.

Lab: Penny Martin

con: Paul Maynard

Martin is a former Wyre and Lancashire councillor. Maynard is former special adviser to shadow defence secretary Liam Fox.

80 Halifax Lab 4.38%

Halifax has only once in recent history been lost by Labour (in 1983) but like most of the Pennine seats the Tory vote here has been resilient because of high levels of owner-occupation. Labour will find it tough to hold on after HBOS announced 1500 job losses in the town.

Lab: Linda riordan MP

con: Philip Allott

Riordan was born in Halifax and has been active in the area’s politics since the early 1990s. She has been MP here since 2005. Allott is a former Harrogate councillor who stood unsuccessfully for the Conservatives in 2001 and 2005. He runs a marketing consultancy.

81 Lancaster & Fleetwood Lab 4.41%

Extensive boundary changes here mean that although the Tories gained Lancaster in 2005 the new boundaries are so much better for Labour they have to “gain” it all over again. Sitting MP Ben Wallace won’t be standing here this time as he has followed the better Tory third of his seat into the new constituency of Wyre & Preston North.

Lab: clive Grunshaw

con: eric ollerenshaw

Grunshaw was born in Fleetwood, and worked as a milkman and docker before becoming assistant to Joan Humble MP. He has been a Lancashire county councillor since 1999. Ollerenshaw was leader of the Conservative group on Hackney council, and a former London Assembly member. He used to be a teacher.

Page 40: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 40

82 dewsbury Lab 4.44%

Dewsbury is yet another Pennine marginal where the Tories over-perform due to high home ownership. Like Halifax its only recent Tory win was in 1983 but it seems to be trending towards them. Labour MP Shahid Malik may have had his chances damaged by adverse press coverage during the expenses furore. However he may conversely benefit from the absence of a Muslim Tory candidate, having faced Sayeeda Warsi in 2005. An additional factor here is a substantial BNP vote.

Lab: Shahid Malik MP

con: Simon reevell

Malik was the first Muslim minister, and has held positions in the DCLG, Home Office, Ministry of Justice, DFID and the then Department for Education and Skills. Reevell is a criminal barrister, specialising in defending service personnel at court marshals.

83 dudley South Lab 4.45%

Minister Ian Pearson has retired after having been MP for this seat since 1997, having won Dudley West on different boundaries in a dramatic by-election. Like most of the West Midlands this seat is susceptible to swings in opinion reflecting the health of the economy because of its dependence on manufacturing industry.

Lab: rachel Harris

con: chris Kelly

Harris has been a local councillor in the area for 15 years and chairs the Dudley Primary Care Trust. Kelly was researcher to Michael Howard before becoming marketing director of Keltruck, a lorry manufacturer.

84 northampton north Lab 4.50%

Labour did well to hold on here in 2005 as they lost a number of the neighbouring seats in Northamptonshire. The seat is now a three-way marginal as the Lib Dems are only about 1,000 votes behind the Tories.

Lab: Sally Keeble MP

con: Michael ellis

Ld: Andrew Simpson

Keeble was first elected in 1997, and is active on all-party groups on Africa and domestic violence. Ellis grew up in Northampton, and is now a legal aid barrister. Simpson works in financial services. He contested the seats of Northampton South in 2001, and Northampton North in 2005.

Page 41: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 41

85 Warrington South Lab 4.58%

Labour MP Helen Southworth is standing down having represented this Cheshire marginal since 1997. A seat with the same name went Labour in 1992 but on boundaries so different that “this” Warrington South was notionally a Tory seat until 1997.

Lab: nick Bent

con: richard Hunt

Bent is a former Special Adviser to Tessa Jowell. Hunt is company secretary of an international manufacturing company, and was a founding member of Harrogate Hospice care.

86 truro & Falmouth Ld 4.63%

There have been extensive boundary changes in Cornwall since the last election, which have created a new seat which is a lot more competitive for the Tories than the old Truro constituency. However, the Lib Dems may be able to survive by squeezing the sizeable Labour vote in the Falmouth part of the seat.

Ld: terrye teverson

con: Sarah newton

Teverson is married to Lord (Robin) Teverson, Lib Dem spokesperson for Energy and Climate Change. She runs a printing company and was candidate for Falmouth & Camborne in 1992 and 1997. Newton has had an eclectic career at Citibank, American Express, Age Concern and the International Longevity Centre.

87 Wirral South Lab 4.65%

Wirral South was the site of a dramatic Labour by-election gain early in the 1997 General Election year and has stayed Labour since. However, with MP Ben Chapman standing down it will be tough for Labour to hold on in a seat which includes some affluent Tory commuter areas with far higher turnouts than the Labour bits of the constituency.

Lab: Alison McGovern

con: Jeff clarke

McGovern is currently a Labour councillor for Brunswick Park, in the London borough of Southwark. Clarke is a criminal barrister and Chester councillor. He contested Wirral West as a Lib Dem in 2005.

Page 42: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 42

88 Southport Ld 4.66%

This seaside resort is a lot more upmarket than nearby Blackpool, which is reflected in the political make-up: a tight two-way fight between the Lib Dems and Tories. It has been Lib Dem from 1987 to 1992 and since 1997.

Ld: John Pugh MP

con: Brenda Porter

Pugh is a Liberal Democrat Shadow Treasury Minister. Porter is deputy leader of the Conservative group on Sefton Council.

89 Lincoln Lab 4.74%

Lincoln was consistently Labour from 1945 to 1973 when its rightwing Labour MP Dick Taverne defected to sit as an independent until October 1974. Since then it has always been won by the party that wins the General Election.

Lab: Gillian Merron MP

con: Karl Mccartney

Merron is a Minister of State at the Department of Health. McCartney is a communications consultant, and organises charity rugby tournaments.

90 Leicestershire north West Lab 4.75%

Labour MP David Taylor sadly died of a heart attack on Boxing Day 2009 but had already announced his retirement. His former seat consists of white working class communities around the former Leicestershire coalfield balanced with more prosperous Tory market towns. Labour has been doing very badly in recent local elections here, with the BNP one of the beneficiaries.

Lab: ross Willmott

con: Andrew Bridgen

Willmott is leader of Leicester City Council. Bridgen runs the family market gardening business, specialising in ready-prepared potatoes.

91 Wyre Forest KHHc 4.76%

Centred on Kidderminster, Wyre Forest was a Tory seat from 1950 to 1997, then Labour for just one term before closure of the local A&E department led to it being won by the Independent MP Richard Taylor, running under the label Kidderminster Hospital & Health Concern. The Lib Dems did not run against Taylor in 2001 and 2005 but will stand this time. KHHC has been losing ground in recent council elections.

KHHc: richard taylor MP

con: Mark Garnier

Page 43: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 43

Taylor was elected on the single issue of saving Kidderminster Hospital in 2001, and has been vocal on health issues ever since. Garnier is a management consultant and a governor of Kidderminster College.

92 Gedling Lab 4.82%

Whilst outside the city boundaries, Gedling consists of commuter suburbs for Nottingham. It was one of Labour’s most surprising gains in 1997 but the Vernon Coaker MP has actually increased his lead over the Tories since then.

Lab: Vernon coaker MP

con: Bruce Laughton

Coaker is currently a minister at the Department for Children, Schools and Families. He has also been PPS to numerous MPs as well as a Government Whip and Home Office Minister. Laughton has been a district councillor in the Newark and Sherwood ward and a Nottinghamshire County councillor since 2001.

93 Halesowen & rowley regis Lab 4.83%

This is a finely balanced seat on the edge of the West Midlands conurbation. Halesowen is Tory voting suburbia whilst Rowley Regis is more working class and Labour. Deputy Speaker Sylvia Heal has been the Labour MP here since 1997 but recently announced her retirement.

Lab: Sue Hayman

con: James Morris

Hayman narrowly missed winning Preseli Pembrokeshire in 2005. Morris was a small businessman specialising in computer software, prior to his involvement in politics.

94 nuneaton Lab 4.87%

Veteran Labour MP Bill Olner is standing down having represented Nuneaton since 1992. Whilst this mainly white working class Warwickshire seat was safe enough for Labour that it was only ever previously lost in the 1983 and 1987 landslides, it has moved dramatically towards the Tories in recent General Elections. However, Labour retains a strong local government base here. A rising BNP vote is an additional factor.

Lab: Jayne Innes

con: Marcus Jones

Innes previously worked for Geoffrey Robinson MP and is currently a consultant in the charity sector. Jones has been a member of Nuneaton and Bedworth council since 2005, holding the position as leader from 2008-2009.

Page 44: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 44

95 Leeds north West Ld 5.08%

The Tories start in third place behind Labour in this suburban part of Leeds so it is difficult to see them regaining it, particularly as Lib Dem MP Greg Mulholland has been building a strong reputation locally. Like many seats with a big student population it was Tory until 1997, then Labour from 1997 to 2005 and then Lib Dem after Labour lost the student vote due to Iraq and tuition fees.

Ld: Greg Mulholland MP

Lab: Judith Blake

con: Julia Mulligan

Mulholland has been MP for Leeds North West since 2005. He previously had a career in promotional management as well as being a Leeds councillor. Blake is currently a Leeds councillor and deputy leader of the Labour group. She previously taught English as a foreign language. Mulligan has been a Craven councillor since 2006 and works in marketing.

96 Brecon & radnorshire Ld 5.09%

This geographically huge rural seat in Mid-Wales was Labour from 1945 to 1979 then Tory for just six years, and has been Liberal and then Lib Dem held ever since a 1985 by-election. The historic Labour vote in the south of the seat now seems to vote Lib Dem tactically to keep the Tories out.

Ld: roger Williams MP

con: Suzy davies

Williams was elected for Brecon & Radnorshire in the 2005 general election and is current rural affairs spokesperson. He is a farmer by trade. Davies qualified as a solicitor, following a career in arts marketing and management. She has previously stood as a candidate for the Welsh Assembly.

97 camborne & redruth Ld 5.13%

This newly created Cornish seat has the largest Labour vote in the county as it includes part of Falmouth & Camborne, which was a Labour seat from 1997 to 2005. The Tories start in third place behind Labour, and high-profile sitting Falmouth & Camborne Lib Dem MP Julia Goldsworthy should be well-placed to hold on to the new boundaries.

Ld: Julia Goldsworthy MP

Lab: Jude robinson

con: George eustice

Goldsworthy was first elected in 2005 and has held shadow briefs for health and treasury. She is currently Liberal Democrat spokesperson for communities and local government. Robinson is a former Carrick councillor and election agent. He holds a degree in English Literature and also studied politics and sociology at Sussex University.

Page 45: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 45

Eustice is former press secretary to David Cameron and Michael Howard and currently co-ordinator of external relations at CCHQ.

98 Warwick & Leamington Lab 5.17%

Boundary changes here have massively helped Labour, taking MP James Plaskitt’s majority up from just 266 to well over 5,000 by removing four safe rural Tory wards to help create the new seat of Kenilworth & Southam.

Lab: James Plaskitt MP

con: chris White

Plaskitt has been member for Warwick & Leamington since the 1997 general election. He was previously a minister for Work and Pensions, and currently sits on the Treasury Select Committee.

White currently works in the PR industry having previously worked for MG Rover. He is Governor of Myton School and a Trustee of both Victim Support and the Warwickshire Association of Youth Clubs.

99 dover Lab 5.20%

This is Labour’s safest seat in Kent. The Labour strength comes from the towns of Dover and Deal and the former East Kent coalfield, whilst the Tories poll well in the rural areas. The Tory vote went down, against the national trend, in 2005, because asylum seekers had been a big issue in Dover in 2001 but less so four years later.

Lab: Gwyn Prosser MP

con: charlie elphicke

Prosser was first elected as MP for Dover in 1997 and is currently a member of the South East Select Committee and the Home Affairs Select Committee. He is a chartered marine engineer by profession. Elphicke is a partner in a legal firm, specialising in tax. He is also a research fellow at the Centre for Policy Studies.

100 Keighley Lab 5.24%

Keighley is another of the tightly-contested Pennine marginals. It has changed hands between Labour and the Tories six times since 1945. High-profile left-wing MP Ann Cryer is standing down after 13 years. She is the widow of Bob Cryer, who was Labour MP for the same seat from 1974 to 1983. The constituency has a large Muslim community and a high BNP vote.

Lab: Jane thomas

con: Kris Hopkins

Page 46: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 46

Thomas was previously a university lecturer in Politics and Public Policy Management. She has worked in the voluntary sector and is currently Vice Chair of the Campaign for the English regions. Hopkins is a former soldier turned student specialising in communications and cultural studies who went on to become a university lecturer. He was elected as Leader of Bradford Council and Leader of the Conservative Group in May 2006.

101 newton Abbot Ld 5.25%

Newton Abbot is a scaled-down version of the old Teignbridge seat, which had a very large electorate so lost 23,000 voters to the new Devon Central seat. It was gained by the Lib Dems from the Tories in 2001. The Tories did well here in the 2009 Devon County Council elections.

Ld: richard Younger-ross MP

con: Anne-Marie Morris

Younger-Ross has been an MP since the 2001 general election and is currently shadow minister for culture, media and sport. He is a member of the Defence Select Committee and the European Scrutiny Committee. Morris is currently a school governor at Rydon School in Kingsteignton and at Newton Abbot College. She runs a marketing and executive coaching consultancy.

102 devon north Ld 5.35%

There is a long Liberal tradition here in rural North Devon with Liberal Leader Jeremy Thorpe having been MP from 1959 to 1979. Nick Harvey has been the Lib Dem MP since 1992 and remains favourite to hold on.

Ld: nick Harvey MP

con: Philip Milton

Harvey entered parliament in the 1992 general election and is currently Liberal Democrat shadow defence secretary. Milton is the founder and managing director of a financial advice company. He was Treasurer of North Devon Conservative Association for four years.

103 Poplar & Limehouse Lab 5.42%

Poplar & Limehouse is an extremely unlikely seat to be on the Tory target list, being at the heart of the East End and having been Labour held since the 1920s. However, it is now a fascinating three-way marginal. Respect MP George Galloway is switching to fight this seat having represented neighbouring Bethnal Green & Bow. He will expect support from the seat’s large Bengali population. The Tories will hope to slip through the middle between Galloway and Transport Minister Jim Fitzpatrick thanks to their cluster of councillors in the rapidly gentrifying wards around Canary Wharf.

Lab: Jim Fitzpatrick MP

con: tim Archer

respect: George Galloway MP

Page 47: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 47

Fitzpatrick was first elected as an MP at the 1997 general election. He was a junior minister in the Deputy Prime Minister’s Department and has also been a government whip. He is currently Minister for Trade and Industry. Archer is currently a Tower Hamlets councillor, with a previous career in financial services. Galloway was first elected to the House of Commons in 1987 representing the Labour Party. He subsequently co-formed the Respect party and won the seat of Bethnal Green in 2005.

104 Stirling Lab 5.46%

Labour’s Ann McGuire has held this seat on the edge of the Highlands since 1997 and a Tory gain looks difficult given the party is not making any substantial progress in Scotland according to the opinion polls.

Lab: Anne McGuire MP

con: Bob dalrymple

McGuire has held several Government positions including government whip, under secretary of state for Scotland, minister for constitutional affairs and for work and pensions. Dalrymple is a marketing executive in the whisky industry. He contested the Stirling seat for the Scottish Parliament in 2007.

105 Plymouth Sutton & devonport Lab 5.56%

This is basically the existing Plymouth Sutton seat plus the ward of Devonport. It has been held by Labour’s Linda Gilroy since 1997. The local economy is dominated by the Royal Navy base.

Lab: Linda Gilroy MP

con: oliver colville

Gilroy was elected to Parliament in the 1997 intake and was PPS to Nick Raynsford MP in the 2001-5 sitting. She was previously deputy director of Age Concern and regional manager for the Gas Consumers` Council. She is currently a member of the Defence Select Committee. Colville runs his own communications business and is a member of the Federation of Small Businesses and Institute of Directors. He previously worked for the Conservative Party coordinating local campaigns.

Page 48: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 48

106 dudley north Lab 5.57%

Dudley North and its predecessor seats have been consistently Labour since 1945, except for a short-lived Tory by-election win in 1968. However, boundary changes have pushed it into the Tory target list and like most West Midlands seats it is susceptible to swings in party support based on the performance of the manufacturing sector of the economy.

Lab: Ian Austin MP

con: Graeme Brown

Austin has been parliamentary under secretary of state at the Department for Communities and Local Government since June 2009. He was previously the Prime Minister’s PPS. Brown stood for the Conservatives in Ashton-under-Lyne in 2005 reducing the Labour MP’s majority and increasing the Conservative vote.

107 elmet & rothwell Lab 5.71%

This is a starkly divided seat to the east of Leeds, with some former mining areas and some very affluent Tory commuter villages. MP Colin Burgon is standing down but Labour’s notional majority has actually gone up by 1,500 due to boundary changes.

Lab: James Lewis

con: Alec Shelbrooke

Lewis is a city councillor representing Kippax and Methley ward. Shelbrooke is a project manager in engineering, has been a member of Leeds City Council since 2004, and also stood as the parliamentary candidate for Wakefield.

108 reading West Lab 5.74%

Labour will find it hard to hold on here because a large slice of their majority is believed to be a personal vote for energetic MP Martin Salter, who is standing down.

Lab: naz Sarkar

con: Alok Sharma

Sarkar, a teacher, has been a councillor in Waltham Forest since 2004. Sharma is a qualified chartered accountant, has lived in Reading for over 30 years, and has previously been involved with the Bow Group.

Page 49: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 49

109 tynemouth Lab 5.83%

Tynemouth is a rarity – a winnable seat for the Tories in the urban North East. It was Tory from 1950 to 1997 and the Tories remain strong here in local government. However, boundary changes have upped the notional Labour majority by about 1,300.

Lab: Alan campbell MP

con: Wendy Morton

Campbell has been parliamentary under secretary of state at the Home Office since October 2008. Morton is a former Richmondshire councillor who contested the Newcastle Central constituency in the 2005 election.

110 Morecambe & Lunesdale Lab 5.87%

This Lancashire seat was safely Tory until 1997. Like many economically declining coastal constituencies it has moved sharply towards Labour, but should still be winnable for the Tories this time.

Lab: Geraldine Smith MP

con: david Morris

Smith is a former Royal Mail worker who was first elected in Morecambe & Lunesdale in 2005. Morris is a company director who contested the Blackpool South seat in the 2001 election and the Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire seat in 2005.

111 Pudsey Lab 5.87%

Pudsey is a suburban owner-occupied area between Leeds and Bradford. Before 1997 it was safely Tory. Labour support has held up well since then but MP Paul Truswell is standing down at the election.

Lab: Jamie Hanley

con: Stuart Andrew

Hanley is a solicitor who specialises in trade union law and personal injury claims. He sits on Labour’s National Policy Forum. Andrew was elected to Leeds City Council in 2003 and stood for Parliament in 1997 in Wrexham.

Page 50: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 50

112 cornwall South east Ld 5.89%

Boundary changes have sliced about 500 off the Lib Dem majority here, and MP Colin Breed is retiring, having held the seat since 1997.

Ld: Karen Gillard

con: Sheryll Murray

Gillard was a Conservative councillor in Plymouth from 2000 until she defected to the Liberal Democrats in 2001 before losing her seat in 2007; she contested Plymouth Sutton in the 2005 election. Murray is leader of the Conservative Group on Caradon District Council and former County Councillor for Rame.

113 Ipswich Lab 5.91%

Suffolk’s county town has an idiosyncratic electoral history, having swung against the national tide in several elections in the past. Partly this is due to having an unusually strong campaigning tradition in its local Labour Party.

Lab: chris Mole MP

con: Ben Gummer

Mole has been the parliamentary under secretary of state in the Department for Transport since June 2009. Gummer is a writer who runs a consultancy business and has lived in Suffolk all his life. He is former Tory Cabinet Minister John Gummer’s son.

114 Bolton West Lab 5.98%

Bolton West actually consists mainly of the suburban areas between Bolton itself and Wigan. Like many of the volatile Lancashire marginals it is heavily owner-occupied. Former Cabinet Minister Ruth Kelly is retiring as MP after 13 years. Boundary changes have added about 2,000 to the notional Labour majority.

Lab: Julie Hilling

con: Susan Williams

Hilling has lived locally for over 20 years and is the senior regional organiser for the Transport Salaried Staffs’ Association. Williams has been a Trafford councillor since 1998 and has been the leader of Trafford Council since 2004.

Page 51: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 51

115 Bolton north east Lab 5.99%

Bolton North East is finely balanced between southern Labour wards and northern Tory ones, so it is normally won by the party which forms the government. Boundary changes have added a few hundred to Labour’s majority.

Lab: david crausby MP

con: deborah dunleavy

Crausby was elected to Parliament in 1997 and is currently a member of the defence select committee. Dunleavy is a Director of a firm of Independent Financial Advisers and stood for Parliament in 2005 in Bolton South East.

116 Waveney Lab 6.00%

Waveney consists of the Suffolk coastal town of Lowestoft and its rural hinterland. Lowestoft is economically deprived like its neighbour Great Yarmouth, whereas the rural parts of the seat are more prosperous and Tory.

Lab: Bob Blizzard MP

con: Peter Aldous

Blizzard was elected to Parliament in 1997 having been a councillor on Waveney District Council since 1987. Aldous is a chartered surveyor, a former Suffolk county councillor and stood for Parliament in 2005 in Waveney.

117 Sefton central Lab 6.01%

Sefton Central is a new seat in the Merseyside commuter belt consisting of about 2/3 of the old Crosby seat and territory from Knowsley North & Sefton East. It is a slightly less advantageous drawing of the boundaries for Labour than the old Crosby was, clawing back some of the ground the Tories has lost through long-term trends towards Labour in Merseyside.

Lab: Bill esterson

con: debi Jones

Esterson runs a training consultancy and is currently also a councillor for Medway. Jones is a television and radio presenter, a former parliamentary candidate for Crosby in 2005, and has been a Sefton borough councillor since 2006.

Page 52: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 52

The next 51 conservative targets

118 Tooting Lab 6.09%

119 St Austell & Newquay LD 6.22%

120 Amber Valley Lab 6.27%

121 Barrow & Furness Lab 6.27%

122 Winchester LD 6.37%

123 Gloucester Lab 6.47%

124 Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk LD 6.50%

125 Thurrock Lab 6.51%

126 Argyll & Bute LD 6.52%

127 Brighton Pavilion Lab 6.56%

128 Dorset Mid & Poole North LD 6.56%

129 Copeland Lab 6.62%

130 Oxford West & Abingdon LD 6.71%

131 Stockton South Lab 6.72%

132 Carlisle Lab 6.73%

133 Batley & Spen Lab 6.77%

134 Bath LD 6.78%

135 Kingswood Lab 6.88%

136 Hyndburn Lab 6.90%

137 Weaver Vale Lab 7.01%

138 Renfrewshire East Lab 7.02%

139 Lancashire West Lab 7.05%

140 Vale of Clwyd Lab 7.09%

141 Moray SNP 7.32%

142 Luton South Lab 7.35%

143 Telford Lab 7.51%

144 Coventry South Lab 7.59%

145 Warwickshire North Lab 7.63%

146 Newport West Lab 7.64%

147 Crewe & Nantwich Lab 7.75%

148 Leeds North East Lab 7.75%

149 Colchester LD 7.80%

150 Erewash Lab 7.83%

Page 53: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 53

151 Dagenham & Rainham Lab 7.85%

152 Sherwood Lab 7.95%

153 Ellesmere Port & Neston Lab 7.99%

154 Derby North Lab 8.07%

155 Sheffield Hallam LD 8.09%

156 Harrogate & Knaresborough LD 8.11%

157 Norwich South Lab 8.17%

158 Edinburgh South Lab 8.18%

159 Luton North Lab 8.19%

160 Chorley Lab 8.21%

161 Edinburgh South West Lab 8.24%

162 Norwich North Lab 8.30%

163 Ochil & South Perthshire Lab 8.43%

164 Lewes LD 8.44%

165 Gower Lab 8.48%

166 Birmingham Selly Oak Lab 8.57%

167 Exeter Lab 8.63%

168 Norwich North Lab 8.64%

Of these seats the most noteworthy are Brighton Pavilion where the Greens have their best hope of their first MP, Renfrewshire East defended by Scottish Secretary Jim Murphy, Dagenham & Rainham defended by Labour leftwing possible leadership contender Jon Cruddas, and Exeter, defended by DCMS Secretary Ben Bradshaw. Two seats already the scene of Tory by-election gains are in the list here: Crewe & Nantwich and Norwich North. Luton South’s result will be affected by the retirement of Labour MP Margaret Moran due to the expenses scandal and the independent candidature of TV presenter Esther Rantsen.

Some of the seats in this part of the list have never been won by the Tories since World War Two: for instance Tooting, Copeland, Dagenham, Gower; whilst others require a Tory gain from third place e.g. Edinburgh South, Ochil.

Page 54: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 54

The 10 most vulnerable Labour seats to the Liberal Democrats

1 Rochdale 0.17%

2 Oxford East 0.37%

3 Edinburgh South 0.47%

4 Hampstead & Kilburn 0.57%

5 Islington South & Finsbury 0.78%

6 Watford 1.17%

7 Ealing Central & Acton 1.37%

8 Aberdeen South 1.62%

9 Edinburgh North & Leith 2.52%

10 City of Durham 3.69%

The Lib Dems are not expected to make gains from Labour on the scale they did in 2005, due to the declining resonance of the Iraq War as an issue. However, some of these seats will continue to be tightly contested: Rochdale is a Lib Dem seat that has flipped back into the Labour column due to boundary changes, Hampstead, Ealing Central and Watford are unpredictable three-way marginals, and Islington South has long been targeted by the Lib Dems. However, a strong Lib Dem threat seems to galvanise local Labour Parties into action: both Islington South and Oxford East have nationally recognised campaigning reputations.

One seat not on this list which the Lib Dems have high hopes in is Brent Central. Lib Dem MP Sarah Teather had her Brent East seat abolished by the Boundary Review and is battling against current Brent South Labour MP Dawn Butler.

Page 55: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 55

The 10 most vulnerable Labour seats to the SnP

1 Ochil & South Perthshire 0.74%

2 Dundee West 7.28%

3 Kilmarnock & Loundon 9.80%

4 Aberdeen North 10.08%

5 Edinburgh East 11.51%

6 Linlithgow & East Falkirk 12.07%

7 Stirling 12.49%

8 Ayrshire North & Arran 12.98%

9 Paisley & Renfrewshire North 13.45%

10 Lanark & Hamilton East 14.14%

After the 2008 Glasgow East by-election sweeping SNP gains from Labour were expected, but the strong Labour performances in subsequent by-elections in Glenrothes and Glasgow North East suggest this is now unlikely. Only Ochil of the seats above looks really vulnerable, even Dundee West has a majority of over 5,000.

Page 56: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 56

other ‘ones to watch’

Solihull This seat has an incumbent Lib Dem MP but has become very narrowly notionally Tory because of boundary changes.

Guildford; eastbourne These are the two Tory seats that are most vulnerable to the Lib Dems if they run strong local campaigns.

Blaenau Gwent Labour’s Nick Smith hopes to regain a former Labour stronghold once held by Nye Bevan and Michael Foot from the Independent MP Dai Davies. The seat went independent in 2005 because of a row in the local Labour Party over All Women Shortlists.

Bethnal Green & Bow Labour rising star Rushanara Ali has a good chance of retaking this seat from Respect because that party has suffered splits and defections and George Galloway has moved seats to neighbouring Poplar & Limehouse.

Manchester Withington Labour’s Lucy Powell has probably the best chance in the country of a Labour regain from the Lib Dems. MP John Leech has a majority of just 551 in a seat with a huge student population.

Arfon Arfon in North East Wales is a new seat which is notionally Labour but where Plaid Cymru also have strong hopes of winning.

Ynys Mon; Llanelli Ynys Mon and Llanelli are the other Labour seats which Plaid Cymru can strongly challenge in.

dunbartonshire east Labour in Scotland entertains hopes of a gain from the Lib Dems in Dunbartonshire East because the equivalent area returned a Labour MSP in the last Scottish Parliament election.

dunfermline & West Fife; Glasgow east Both these Scottish seats were lost by Labour in by-elections and should have a good chance of being won back: Dunferline & West Fife from the Lib Dems and Glasgow East from the SNP.

Page 57: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 57

Buckingham The Speaker, John Bercow, will be defending his Buckingham seat. By convention, he will not face a challenge from the main parties but former UKIP Leader Nigel Farage hopes to present a strong challenge to him, capitalising on Tory disquiet about his alleged proximity to Labour.

castle Point Former Tory MP Bob Spink is now an Independent after falling out with his local party and may split the Tory vote in this South Essex seat.

Page 58: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 58

SEcTIon 3

class of 2010?

Page 59: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 59

The Class of 2010 is likely to be huge, so that the Commons will get a new intake that is comparable in size only to those of the 1945 and 1997 Labour landslides. Not only are the Tories aiming to gain many seats from Labour and the Lib Dems, over 145 MPs have already announced their retirement. This number has been inflated by the expenses scandal putting pressure on implicated MPs to quit and by natural churn as many Labour MPs who were elected in 1997 have reached retirement age.

Labour’s new intake will be overwhelmingly pro-leadership loyalists, whilst David Cameron’s use of centrally imposed shortlists means that large numbers of his own parliamentary party will owe their seats to his personal patronage. Both parties have selected historically unprecedentedly diverse candidates, with many more women and ethnic minority candidates than in the past.

Profiles of new candidates seeking to replace retiring MPs

*Denotes a new constituency or one where the boundary has changed. The Party control indicated is notional.

Arfon (Labour)*

New candidate: Alun Pugh

Director of an environmental charity, Snowdonia Society. Assembly member for Clwyd West between 1999 and 2007.

Barrow and Furness (Labour)

Retiring MP: John Hutton New candidate: Jonathan Woodcock

Was Special Adviser to John Hutton before moving to Downing Street’s media team.

Beckenham (conservative)

Retiring MP: Jacqui Lait New candidate: Bob Stewart

Stewart commanded UN forces in Bosnia from 1992 - 1993 before leaving the army in 2005 and moving to the corporate and public affairs division of a London firm.

Birmingham erdington (Labour)

Retiring MP: Sion Simon New candidate: Jack Dromey

Dromey is Deputy General Secretary of the Transport and General Workers Union and Treasurer of the Labour Party. He is married to Labour Deputy Leader Harriet Harman MP.

Page 60: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 60

Birmingham Ladywood (Labour)

Retiring MP: Clare Short New candidate: Shabana Mahmood

A former barrister. Has spoken of her disagreement with Government policy on Iraq and detention without trial.

Bolton South east (Labour)

Retiring MP: Brian Iddon New candidate: Yasmin Qureshi

A barrister in Manchester. Has previously worked for the United Nations Mission in Kosovo and as a CPS prosecutor.

Bournemouth West (conservative)

Retiring MP: John Butterfill New candidate: Conor Burns

Has had a variety of jobs working in the communications and finance sectors. Was a Southampton City councillor between 1999 and 2002. Contested Eastleigh in 2001 and 2005.

Bracknell (conservative) Retiring MP: Andrew Mackay New candidate: Philip Lee

A part-time GP throughout the Thames Valley. Lee was elected as a Beaconsfield Councillor in 2001 and was a candidate for Blaenau Gwent in South Wales in 2005 General Election.

Brighton Pavillion (Labour) Retiring MP: David Lepper New candidate: Nancy Platts

Platts is a former Head of Policy at railway trades union TSSA. Later moved to the GLA before becoming Director of Maternity Alliance.

Page 61: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 61

Bromsgrove (conservative) Retiring MP: Julie Kirkbride New candidate: Sajid Javid

Javid was the youngest Vice President in the history of Chase Manhattan Bank at the age of 24 and later moved to Deutsche Bank.

Burnley (Labour) Retiring MP: Kitty Ussher New candidate: Julie Cooper

Leader of the Labour group on the council. A qualified English teacher who has run a local pharmacy business.

cambridge (Liberal democrat) Retiring MP: David Howarth New candidate: Julian Huppert

A research scientist at the Cavendish Laboratory and a Fellow of Clare College. Served as County Councillor for East Chesterton between 2001 and 2009, and was the Leader of the Liberal Democrats there.

cambridgeshire north east (conservative) Retiring MP: Malcolm Moss New candidate: Steve Barclay

Head of Anti-Money Laundering and Sanctions at Barclays Bank. Also worked at FSA and AXA. Stood for election in 1997 and 2005.

cannock chase (Labour) Retiring MP: Tony Wright New candidate: Susan Woodward

Has been been a Parish, District and County Councillor and a PCT Non Executive Director. Former member of the National Policy Forum.

Page 62: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 62

carlisle (Labour) Retiring MP: Eric Martlew New candidate: Michael Boaden

Leader of the opposition Labour Group on Carlisle City Council.

clwyd South (Labour) Retiring MP: Martyn Jones New candidate: Susan Elan Jones

Resigned her seat on Southwark Council to fight the Clwyd South seat.

congleton (conservative) Retiring MP: Ann Winterton New candidate: Fiona Bruce

She is national winner of the Business Woman of the Year Award “Women into Business” for her Community Law Firm Fiona Bruce & Co LLP. Has been a Warrington Borough Councillor for six years.

crewe and nantwich (Labour)*

New candidate: David Williams

Described as a lifelong trade unionist and is currently Political Officer for Usdaw.

cumbernauld Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch east (Labour) Retiring MP: Rosemary McKenna New candidate: Gregg McClymont

A former Cumbernauld High School pupil who currently teaches history at Oxford University. He was a speech writer for John Reid.

darlington (Labour) Retiring MP: Alan Milburn New candidate: Jenny Chapman

Previously worked for Alan Milburn MP as a researcher until 2003 and was later elected as a Councillor for Cockerton West in 2007.

Page 63: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 63

daventry (conservative) Retiring MP: Tim Boswell New candidate: Chris Heaton-Harris

Heaton-Harris was Conservative MEP for the East Midlands from June 1999 to June 2009.

derby north (Labour) Retiring MP: Bob Laxton New candidate: Chris Williamson

Derby Councillor and has been leader of Derby City Council on two separate occasions.

derbyshire Mid (conservative)*

New candidate: Pauline Latham

She has been a local Councillor since 1987 and has a special interest in education issues. Was a parliamentary candidate for Broxtowe in 2001 and stood as a European candidate in 1999 as well as 2004 for the East Midlands.

devizes (conservative) Retiring MP: Michael Ancram New candidate: Claire Perry

Worked for George Osborne from 2007, developing policies on “Get Britain Working”, reform of Britain’s prison system and accountability and value for money in public spending.

devon central (conservative)*

New candidate: Mel Stride

Described as a vigorous local campaigner interested in farming and green issues.

dunbartonshire West (Labour)

Retiring MP: John McFallNew candidate: Gemma Doyle

A West Dunbartonshire local, Gemma Doyle works for the Parliamentary Labour Party at Westminster.

Page 64: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 64

dunfermline and West Fife (Labour)

Seat lost by Lab to LD in by-electionNew candidate: Thomas Docherty

He is an account director with a communications consultancy, having previously worked for Network Rail and BNFL. Contested South of Scotland 2003 Scottish Parliament elections.

durham north West (Labour) Retiring MP: Hillary Armstrong New candidate: Pat Glass

Born in North West Durham. Currently a Government Education Adviser.

easington (Labour) Retiring MP: John Cummings New candidate: Grahame Morris

Spent his early career in the NHS. Worked with John Cummings MP in 1987 and served as a Labour Member of Easington District Council for fifteen years.

east Hampshire (conservative)*

New candidate: Damian Hinds

Hinds has spent most of the last 18 years working in the pubs/brewing and hotel industries. He is now self-employed. Previously a Chairman of the Bow Group.

east Kilbride Strathaven and Lesmahagow (Labour) Retiring MP: Adam Ingram New candidate: Michael McCann

McCann is a South Lanarkshire councillor.

east Lothian (Labour) Retiring MP: Anne MoffatNew candidate: Fiona O’Donnell

O’Donnell is a Lothians Labour campaigner and a former mental health worker.

Page 65: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 65

east Surrey (conservative) Retiring MP: Peter Ainsworth New candidate: Sam Gyimah

Beaconsfield-born businessman and entrepreneur. One of the Tories’ highest-profile ethnic minority candidates.

edinburgh east (Labour) Retiring MP: Gavin Strang New candidate: Sheila Gilmore

Edinburgh Councillor from 1991 to 2007.

edinburgh South (Labour) Retiring MP: Nigel Griffiths New candidate: Ian Murray

Murray is Edinburgh councillor and runs an events management company.

edinburgh West (Liberal democrat) Retiring MP: John Barrett New candidate: Michael Crockart

IT Project Manager who has been a candidate for the Lib Dem three times in the last 5 years.

enfield north (conservative)*

New candidate: Nick de Bois

Currently the Managing Director of Rapiergroup, a marketing communications company.

erewash (Labour) Retiring MP: Liz Blackman New candidate: Cheryl Pidgeon

Pidgeon is a TUC organiser in the West Midlands.

Page 66: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 66

erith and thamesmead (Labour) Retiring MP: John Austin New candidate: Teresa Pearce

Formerly a Senior Manager of Tax Investigations at PricewaterhouseCoopers and Bexley councillor.

esher and Walton (conservative) Retiring MP: Ian Taylor New candidate: Dominic Raab

Since June 2008, Raab has worked as Chief of Staff to Dominic Grieve QC MP. Previously worked for David Davis, at the FCO and was an international lawyer at Linklaters.

Filton and Bradley Stoke (conservative)*

New candidate: Jack Lopresti

A former Bristol councillor and Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Bristol East in 2001. He also serves in the 266 Battery, Royal Artillery (Gloucester Volunteer Artillery) as a gunner and recently returned from Afghanistan.

Finchley and Golders Green (Labour) Retiring MP: Rudi Vis New candidate: Alison Moore

Barnet councillor and leader of the Labour group on Barnet council.

Folkestone and Hythe (conservative) Retiring MP: Michael Howard New candidate: Damian Collins

Senior Counsel at Lexington Communications. Previously worked in Conservative Central Office and spent 10 years at M&C Saatchi advertising agency.

Page 67: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 67

Fylde (conservative) Retiring MP: Michael Jack New candidate: Mark Menzies

Menzies has spent his working career in the retail sector. Describes his main political priorities as UK energy security, planning and the defence industry.

Gateshead (Labour)*

New candidate: Ian Mearns

Deputy leader of Gateshead council.

Glasgow central (Labour) Retiring MP: Mohammed Sarwar New candidate: Anas Sarwar

A member of the Party’s Scottish Policy Forum. Studied at Glasgow University and works as an NHS dentist. Son of the sitting MP.

Glasgow east (Labour)*

New candidate: Margaret Curran

MSP for Glasgow Baillieston since 1999. Former lecturer and community worker. Contested Glasgow East by-election in 2008.

Gosport (conservative) Retiring MP: Peter Viggers New candidate: Caroline Dinenage

Has been a local councillor for 5 years. Describes herself as “a Navy wife”.

Grantham and Stamford (conservative)*

New candidate: Nick Boles

Part of the Conservative Policy Implementation team. He set up Policy Exchange in 2002 and has run his own business manufacturing paint brushes and rollers.

Page 68: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 68

Harrogate and Knaresborough (Liberal democrat) Retiring MP: Phil Willis New candidate: Claire Kelley

She has worked in the constituency office of Phil Willis MP for more than twelve years. Previously she served as a Borough Councillor for ten years and a County Councillor for eight.

Hexham (conservative) Retiring MP: Peter Atkinson New candidate: Guy Opperman

Opperman is a Barrister and has worked with Citizens Advice Bureau.

Houghton and Sunderland South (Labour) Retiring MP: Fraser Kemp New candidate: Bridget Phillipson

Works for a local charity, Wearside Women in Need, managing a refuge.

Hull east (Labour) Retiring MP: John Prescott New candidate: Karl Turner

A Hull East native, he is a barrister and works from the local chambers in Hull.

Hyndburn (Labour) Retiring MP: Greg Pope New candidate: Graham Jones

Jones is a councillor for both Hyndburn Borough Council and Lancashire County Council.

Islwyn (Labour) Retiring MP: Don Touhig New candidate: Chris Evans

Parliamentary researcher for the current MP Don Touhig. A former trade union official.

Page 69: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 69

Kilmarnock and Loudoun (Labour) Retiring MP: Des Browne New candidate: Cathy Jamieson

MSP for Carrick, Cumnock and Doon Valley since 1999 and Labour’s Deputy Leader in Scotland from 2000 until 2008. She is currently Labour’s Scottish Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Health and Wellbeing. Former social worker.

Leeds West (Labour) Retiring MP: John Battle New candidate: Rachel Reeves

Former economist for the Bank of England, the British Embassy in Washington and Halifax Bank of Scotland.

Lewisham east (Labour) Retiring MP: Bridget Prentice New candidate: Heidi Alexander

A local Councillor and has been Lewisham’s full-time Deputy Mayor and Cabinet Member for Regeneration since 2006.

Leyton and Wanstead (Labour) Retiring MP: Harry Cohen New candidate: John Cryer

Previously MP for Hornchurch from 1997 to 2005. He is the son of Ann Cryer and the late Bob Cryer, both Labour MPs. He was previously a member of the leftwing Campaign Group of MPs.

Liverpool Walton (Labour) Retiring MP: Peter Kilfoyle New candidate: Steve Rotheram

Former Liverpool Lord Mayor.

Page 70: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 70

Liverpool Wavertree (Labour) Retiring MP: Jane Kennedy New candidate: Luciana Berger

28 year-old former director of Labour Friends of Israel.

Liverpool West derby (Labour) Retiring MP: Bob Waring New candidate: Stephen Twigg

A former MP for Enfield Southgate and Blairite Government minister who is looking to return to Parliament. Defeated Michael Portillo in 1997. Currently Director of the think tank, Foreign Policy Centre.

Livingston (Labour) Retiring MP: Jim Devine New candidate: Graeme Morrice

Morrice is a West Lothian councillor and former leader.

Luton South (Labour) Retiring MP: Margaret Moran New candidate: Gavin Shuker

Raised and educated in Luton, returning after studying Social and Political Sciences at Cambridge University. Works for a local church.

Macclesfield (conservative) Retiring MP: Sir Nicholas Winterton New candidate: David Rutley

He has been a senior executive at Asda, PepsiCo, Halifax and Barclays. He has also worked as a Special Adviser in the last Conservative Government at the Treasury, the Cabinet Office and the Ministry of Agriculture.

Page 71: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 71

Maidstone and the Weald (conservative) Retiring MP: Ann Widdecombe New candidate: Helen Grant

Set up Grants Solicitors, a specialist firm focused on dealing with the problems of family breakdown. She is member of the Conservative Party Social Mobility Task Force.

Makerfield (Labour) Retiring MP: Ian McCartney New candidate: Yvonne Fovargue

Chief Executive of St Helens Citizens Advice Bureau. Before this she worked for Manchester City Council.

Meon Valley (conservative)*

New candidate: George Hollingbery

Hollingbery spent a brief spell as a stockbroker, then started his own investment businesses. Stood for Winchester in 2005.

Middlesbrough South & east cleveland (Labour)

Previous MP: Ashok KumarNew candidate: Tom Blenkinsop

A campaign manager with steel union Community and a former constituency office employee.

newcastle upon tyne central (Labour)*

New candidate: Chinyelu Susan Onwurah

Head of Telecoms technology at Ofcom. Her work has focused mainly on Next Generation Networks, Operational Support Systems and Investment Risk and Return.

newcastle upon tyne north (Labour)*

New candidate: Catherine McKinnell

Works as an employment solicitor with a large Newcastle law firm.

Page 72: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 72

norfolk Mid (conservative)*

New candidate: George Freeman

Spent five years in Westminster as Parliamentary Officer of the National Farmers Union. Over the last ten years has built his own small business helping to develop new medical technologies.

norfolk South West (conservative) Retiring MP: Christopher Fraser New candidate: Elizabeth Truss

Worked in the energy and telecommunications industry for ten years as a commercial manager and economics director. Was deputy director of think-tank Reform.

northamptonshire South (conservative)*

New candidate: Andrea Leadsom

Currently Head of Corporate Governance for Invesco Perpetual. Contested Knowsley South in 2005.

norwich north (Labour)*

New candidate: John Cook

Works for Norwich City Labour Party, having previously worked as a bank clerk, pensions clerk and Officer of Customs & Excise. Was the agent for Charles Clarke and Ian Gibson in 1997.

nottingham South (Labour) Retiring MP: Alan Simpson New candidate: Lilian Greenwood

Works for UNISON and has campaigned on a range of issues such as anti-racism, better pension provision, increased funding for the NHS and workers’ rights.

orpington (conservative)

Retiring MP: John Horam New candidate: Jo Johnson

Jo is brother of London Mayor Boris Johnson. Financial Times journalist.

Page 73: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 73

oxford east (Liberal democrat)*

New candidate: Steve Goddard

Goddard is a lecturer in French at Oxford University.

Penrith and the Border (conservative) Retiring MP: David Maclean New candidate: Rory Stewart

Served as an officer in the British Army and then joined the British Diplomatic Service. His walk across Afghanistan shortly after the US invasion is described in his award-winning book, The Places in Between. In 2003, he became coalition Deputy Governor of two provinces in Iraq.

Pontypridd (Labour) Retiring MP: Kim Howells New candidate: Owen Smith

Former BBC Wales producer. Has also worked as a special adviser at the Wales and Northern Ireland Offices and as a director of a biotech company.

rochester and Strood (conservative)*

New candidate: Mark Reckless

He works for City Solicitors was previously UK Economist for Warburgs. Developed new policies for tackling youth crime and police governance for the Conservative Party Policy Unit.

Salisbury (conservative) Retiring MP: Robert Key New candidate: John Glen

Previous Director of the Conservative Research Department who worked for William Hague when he was Opposition Leader. He has worked in the oil and gas industry.

Scunthorpe (Labour) Retiring MP: Elliot Morley New candidate: Nic Dakin

College principal and former leader of North Lincolnshire council.

Page 74: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 74

Selby and Ainsty (conservative)* New seatNew candidate: Nigel Adams

Businessman in the telecommunications industry. Contested Rossendale and Darwen 2005.

Sheffield central (Labour) Retiring MP: Richard Caborn New candidate: Paul Blomfield

General Manager of University of Sheffield student union. Married to Linda McAvan, Labour Member of the European Parliament for Yorkshire and the Humber.

Sherwood (Labour) Retiring MP: Paddy Tipping New candidate: Emilie Oldknow

Born in Rainsworth and educated at Newcastle University. Regional director of the East Midlands Labour Party.

Sittingbourne and Sheppey (conservative) Retiring MP: Derek Wyatt New candidate: Gordon Henderson

Henderson is currently Operations Manager of the UK’s largest manufacturer of alcoholic-based gifts, which is based in Dartford. Henderson was the Conservative candidate in Sittingbourne & Sheppey in 2005.

Skipton and ripon (conservative) Retiring MP: David Curry New candidate: Julian Smith

Set up his own recruitment company. Co-authored the Arculus Report on red tape and regulation commissioned by David Cameron and launched by Ken Clarke in May 2009.

Sleaford and north Hykeham (conservative) Retiring MP: Douglas Hogg New candidate: Stephen Phillips

Barrister who has built up his own practice over the past 15 years.

Page 75: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

Somerset north east (conservative)

New candidate: Jacob Rees-Mogg

Runs his own company Somerset Capital Management which specialises in pension fund management for charitable organisations.

Spelthorne (conservative) Retiring MP: David Wilshire New candidate: Kwasi Kwarteng

Author and former investment analyst. Former Chairman of the Bow Group. Contested Brent East in 2005 and was on the London-wide list in the 2008 London elections.

St Austell and newquay (Liberal democrat)*

New candidate: Stephen Gilbert

Works as a business consultant across the county. He became Cornwall’s youngest-ever Councillor in 1998 when he was first elected, aged 21.

Staffordshire Moorlands (conservative)*

New candidate: Karen Bradley

Bradley is a Chartered Accountant and Chartered Tax Adviser. In 2002 she was seconded by her employer at the time, KPMG, to work as a technical adviser to the Shadow Treasury Team led by Michael Howard.

Staffordshire South (conservative)*

New candidate: Gavin Williamson

Managing Director of a major architectural design practice. Contested Blackpool North and Fleetwood in 2005.

Stalybridge & Hyde (Labour) Retiring MP: James PurnellNew candidate: Jonny Reynolds

Reynolds is a trainee solicitor and local Tameside borough councillor.

general election guide 2010 75

Page 76: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 76

Stockton north (Labour) Retiring MP: Frank Cook New candidate: Alex Cunningham

Former head of Communications for Transco, now running a communications and web design business. A Stockton borough councillor, he is a member of the Board of One North East.

Stoke on trent central (Labour) Retiring MP: Mark FisherNew candidate: Tristram Hunt

An Observer columnist, broadcaster and university lecturer. Son of Lord Hunt of Chesterton.

Stratford-on-Avon (conservative) Retiring MP: John Maples New candidate: Nadhim Zahawi

Founder and CEO of YouGov. Wandsworth councillor 1994-2006. Contested Erith and Thamesmead 1997.

Streatham (Labour) Retiring MP: Keith Hill New candidate: Chuka Umunna

Employment lawyer widely hailed as a rising star on the soft left of the Party alongside Jon Cruddas. Editor of TMP, an online magazine for “multicultural progressives”.

Stretford and urmston (Labour) Retiring MP: Beverley Hughes New candidate: Kate Green

Formerly chief executive of the Child Poverty Action Group and director of the National Council for One Parent Families. Recieved an OBE in 2005.

Page 77: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 77

Suffolk central and Ipswich north (conservative) Retiring MP: Michael Lord New candidate: Daniel Poulter

Poulter is a hospital doctor specialising primarily in obstetrics, gynaecology and women’s health. Former Hastings and Reigate and Banstead councillor.

Suffolk coastal (conservative) Retiring MP: John Gummer New candidate: Therese Coffey

Formerly Finance Director for Mars Drinks UK. Contested Wrexham in 2005 and South East region 2009 European elections.

Suffolk West (conservative)*

New candidate: Matthew Hancock

Formerly Chief of Staff to George Osborne and economist for the Bank of England looking at the housing market.

Sunderland central (Labour)*

New candidate: Julie Elliott

Regional organiser for the GMB union and has been a regional organiser for the National Asthma Campaign.

Swansea West (Labour) Retiring MP: Alan Williams New candidate: Geraint Davies

Formerly MP for Croydon Central between 1997 and 2005. He had previously served as Leader of Croydon Borough Council.

thanet South (conservative)*

New candidate: Laura Sandys

Sandys has been working with the Conservative Defence Team on Energy Security and she speaks on issues relating to small businesses, care of the elderly, education, and defence policy.

Page 78: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 78

thurrock (Labour) Retiring MP: Andrew Mackinlay New candidate: Carl Morris

Morris has been a Thurrock Councillor since May 1988, including Mayor of Thurrock in 1999/2000 and Deputy Leader of the Council from 2000 until 2004.

tiverton and Honiton (conservative) Retiring MP: Angela Browning New candidate: Neil Parish

Neil Parish has been a Member of the European Parliament for the South West since June 1999. He is spokesman for agriculture and is the Chairman of the agriculture and rural development committee in Parliament.

totnes (conservative) Retiring MP: Anthony Steen New candidate: Sarah Wollaston

Wollaston is a GP based in Dartmoor and became the first parliamentary candidate to be selected by an all postal open primary ballot in August 2009.

tyneside north (Labour)*

New candidate: Mary Glindon

Currently a Councillor on North Tyneside Council.

Walsall South (Labour) Retiring MP: Bruce George New candidate: Valerie Vaz

A former TV presenter and sister of veteran MP Keith Vaz.

Walthamstow (Labour) Retiring MP: Neil Gerrard New candidate: Stella Creasy

Head of Public Affairs and Campaigns at The Scout Association . Former Waltham Forest councillor and aide to Douglas Alexander.

Page 79: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 79

Wansbeck (Labour) Retiring MP: Denis Murphy New candidate: Ian Lavery

Former miner and President of the National Union of Miners since 2002.

Weaver vale (Labour) Retiring MP: Mike Hall New candidate: John Stockton

Stockton is a teacher and Halton Brook Councillor.

Wigan (Labour)

Retiring MP: Neil Turner New candidate: Lisa Nandy

Policy advisor for the Children’s Society and a Hammersmith councillor.

Winchester (Liberal democrat)

Retiring MP: Mark Oaten New candidate: Martin Tod

Currently an independent marketing and strategy consultant. Formerly UK Head of Brand & Advertising at Vodafone.

Wirral West (conservative)

Retiring MP: Stephen Hesford New candidate: Esther McVey

Known for her successful career in the media, both as a presenter and producer. Is now MD of her own company Making It (UK) Ltd, which aims to help small business start-ups.

Witham (conservative)*

New candidate: Priti Patel

Former Deputy Press Secretary to the then Leader of the Opposition, William Hague. Has worked as Director of Corporate Communications at Diageo and later as a Director at Weber Shandwick.

Page 80: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 80

Woking (conservative)

Retiring MP: Humphrey Malins New candidate: Jonathan Lord

Formerly a Director of Saatchi & Saatchi. He was the Conservative Parliamentary Candidate for Oldham West and Royton in 1997.

Wolverhampton north east (Labour)

Retiring MP: Ken Purchase New candidate: Emma Reynolds

Former Special Advisor to Geoff Hoon and political adviser to Robin Cook.

Worcestershire West (conservative)

Retiring MP: Michael Spicer New candidate: Harriett Baldwin

Baldwin has worked in finance, specialising in currency markets for pension funds. She has also helped to write Conservative policy on the social enterprise sector.

Wycombe (conservative)

Retiring MP: Paul Goodman New candidate: Steve Baker

Former RAF engineer. He is also an Associate Consultant to the Centre for Social Justice.

Page 81: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 81

SEcTIon 4

The campaign

Page 82: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 82

campaign techniques

The campaign will really operate on two levels.

Nationally, the major parties will push out their key messages through party political broadcasts, press conferences, media stunts, visits and events, policy announcements, set piece speeches and paid advertising. The Tories start with a huge advantage. Cash. Since the 2006 Cash for Peerages allegations high-value donors to Labour have dried up, leaving the party dependent on donations from major unions. The Tories therefore have a four-to-one advantage in spending power and are able to buy newspaper and billboard advertising, which Labour cannot do. With the return of The Sun to the Tory fold the Tories also enjoy a big advantage in terms of the line-up of newspapers which will back them, though declining newspaper circulation means that this is not quite the factor it was in the 1980s.

Two factors in this election campaign are completely new:

The TV debates. This is the first UK election where there will be TV debates •between the main party leaders. There will be three debates, one each on the BBC, ITV and Sky. Labour sees these as a much needed way to get free coverage for their message given their lack of funds to pay for advertising. The relatively short campaign means that these three debates will become the critical set-piece events of the campaign.

Online campaigning. Digital campaigning was in its infancy in 2005 but since •then use of social media websites has exploded. The parties will be using the internet as a cheap way to rapidly spread viral messages and videos that the mainstream media won’t carry. Already the ability of activists to subvert images of billboard posters using simple online tools has undermined some traditional campaign methods. However, the most likely impact of internet campaigning will be to generate negative headlines if a candidate or activist writes something inappropriate or damaging to their party on Facebook, Twitter or a blog.

The “other” campaign is the grassroots one to win the critical seats needed for the Tories to seize an overall majority. All three main parties have very disciplined key seat strategies where they are focusing their effort on a limited number of seats that might change hands. They are able to deploy national telephone banks, direct mail shots, full-time organisers and key-campaigner visits into these battleground seats. As with the national campaign, the Tories have enjoyed a huge funding advantage thanks to big donors, the most high-profile and controversial being Lord Ashcroft. Whilst spending in each constituency is controlled and limited during the short campaign and just before it, in the longer campaign over the whole of the parliament there is no limit on what each party can spend. The Tories have therefore used their funding advantage to the full to bombard marginal seats with leaflets, phone calls and direct mail.

Page 83: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 83

There are always disputes within the parties over targeting strategy and which seats to focus resources on. The two main parties will have started out trying to cover off all the seats the Tories need to gain from Labour to form a majority. At the peak of their poll lead the Tories probably put resources into some long-shot targets like Ed Balls’ Morley & Outwood and the new Sunderland Central. However, it is fair to assume that as the polls have narrowed the parties will have focussed more and more on those seats where the outcome is still uncertain: probably this means that there is an assumption the Tories will win the first 50 Labour marginals, and the real fight is now in Labour marginals numbers 50 to 100.

Within the marginal seats the shape of the campaign is fairly traditional – canvassing by phone and on the doorstep (with the phone decreasing in utility as people use the Telephone Preference System to opt out of cold calls) and literature in the form of leaflets and addressed direct mail. But the technology the parties use to precision target possible switching voters in the key seats is increasingly sophisticated as they now use market research software such as Experian’s Mosaic system to identify the interests and susceptibility to different messages and parties of different voters based on the socio-economic characteristics of their post codes.

Ordinary voters often wonder why the political parties are so keen to find out their voting intentions. Canvassing is not in fact intended to try to sway people’s opinions – it is normally conducted so that each political party can identify its potential supporters and then use further communication up to and on polling day to persuade these people to vote and therefore get a differential turn-out in their favour.

At a national level in the media, as in 2005 the parties have hardly been going out of their way to inspire voters with positive messages so far. Labour has been trying to scare the public about the alleged severity of Tory spending cuts whilst the Tory message basically boils down to “do you want another five years of Gordon Brown?” Cameron perhaps initially wanted to run, as per Blair and Obama, on what Sarah Palin derides as “hopey-changey stuff”, but in the context of a recession and tough spending decisions for any incoming government, such a tone would have jarred.

Page 84: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 84

the Manifestos

Although the publication of the manifestos usually creates a media frenzy, they are not widely read by the public.

They do, however, outline the parties’ key election messages and identify the key battleground issues.

The manifestos will not be published until the official election period is underway. However, we have already been given plenty of hints on what they may contain. In this section we provide an overview of the main themes and issues the parties will be pushing as part of their policy packages.

Some policy surprises will be kept under wraps until the manifestos are unveiled. Weber Shandwick will be providing more detailed briefings as these emerge.

Labour – A Future Fair for All

As with all parties, the economy will be a key issue and Labour will be both deflecting blame for the economic crisis and arguing the line that “this is no time for a novice”. With the prospect of a hung Parliament, it is likely that proposals for electoral reform may be on the cards, in an attempt to win over the Lib Dems.

Given the proximity to an election, the Chancellor’s 2010 Budget certainly attempted to draw dividing lines between the Government and Opposition. The following weekend, whilst not officially a manifesto, Gordon Brown launched Labour’s “election pledges”, outlining the themes on which the Party would be fighting the campaign.

Labour has continued to contrast its commitment to “securing” the recovery versus what it describes as the prospect of “savage cuts” from an old-style Tory Party. Although Labour has said it will protect “frontline” investment in policing, schools, childcare and the NHS, the Budget outlined plans to reduce the deficit through efficiency savings and cuts to lower priority spending – although it came as little surprise this came in for criticism. Plans to increase National Insurance Contributions have proved to be hotly contested.

Labour has also pledged to support businesses and industry to create one million more skilled jobs and modernise UK infrastructure with High-Speed Rail, a Green Investment Bank and greater broadband access.

The Budget also announced that all 16 and 17 year olds would be guaranteed a place in education or training and people aged 18-24 will be guaranteed a job, work experience or training place if they are unemployed for more than six months.

Page 85: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 85

The Government has maintained that the UK has led the way on financial services reform and this may well feature in the manifesto. The Budget also outlined plans for a Small Business Credit Adjudicator, with statutory powers, to help ensure that small businesses are treated fairly when applying for loans.

On family living standards, proposals include increasing tax credits for families with young children; reducing stamp duty for first-time buyers; and restoring the link between the state pension and earnings from 2012.

Other proposals include an Australian-style points-based system to manage immigration.

conservatives – Vote for change

As the slogan implies, the Conservatives’ campaign argues that voters can choose between them or “five more years of Gordon Brown”.

One of the key differences between the two main parties is that the Tories have said they will aim to tackle the deficit much more quickly than Labour. This is expected to be based on a combination of spending cuts and efficiency savings – particularly in quangos. However they came in for criticism when they pledged to reverse Labour’s proposal to increase National Insurance Contributions – funded through efficiency savings. Both Labour and the Conservatives have been mobilising business leaders to express support for their respective positions.

The Tories have said that one of their central campaign pledges will be to cut taxes. This includes a cut in corporation tax rates and the abolition of taxes on the first ten jobs created by new businesses.

On the financial crisis, the Conservatives have committed to giving the Bank of England responsibility for macro prudential regulation. Other proposals on the economy include promoting green jobs, and helping to move more people off welfare and into work through a revised assessment framework. The Conservatives have also said they would freeze council tax and raise the basic state pension.

Despite claims from Labour to the contrary, Cameron has attempted to position the Conservatives as the party of the NHS, with plans to reduce the number of managers, abolish Strategic Health Authorities and make the NHS more locally accountable. This would include giving more responsibility to Primary Care Trusts and GPs.

On education, the Conservatives are again calling for teachers to have more power to restore discipline. They would also aim to enable more private providers to set up Academies.

Page 86: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 86

Again echoing the “change” mantra, the Conservatives propose to reduce the number of MPs and make public spending more transparent by legislating to introduce a new “Right to Government Data” which would aim to open up government data to the public.

Liberal democrats – change that Works for You: Building a Fairer Britain

Given such a fiercely-contested election, many commentators turned their attention to the prospects of a hung Parliament, with Nick Clegg as “kingmaker” – a moniker he has made great pains to avoid. The Lib Dems could not be seen to align with either party and risk losing the “soft” votes in Lib/Lab or Lib/Con battlegrounds.

The Lib Dems have pledged to reform the tax system to stop four million people on £10,000 a year or less paying income tax altogether. This would be financed by closing tax loopholes, higher taxes for the wealthy, and perhaps the “mansion tax” which caused some controversy during their 2009 annual conference.

As with the other parties, support for a green economy are likely to feature and it will be interesting to see how the Lib Dems differentiate themselves from Labour and the Conservatives in attempt to recapture the green vote.

Vince Cable has been highly critical of the financial services sector and has already said a manifesto would include a 10 per cent tax on bank profits and proposals to split “casino” and retail banking. Other proposals include a “sunset” clause in every new business regulation so that it is time limited unless renewed by Parliament, and a public interest test for regulatory authorities to consider when takeovers are proposed and changing the rules on which shareholders can vote on takeover proposals.

As part of the “fairer Britain” pledge, the Lib Dems have said they would introduce a “pupil premium” to target extra education spending at the most disadvantaged children.

Perhaps one of the key issues for the future is the proposal for voting reform for Westminster elections and fixed terms for Parliament. Labour has already proposed a UK referendum in 2011 on switching to an “alternative vote” system, but this does not go as far as the Lib Dems’ preferred option of the “single transferable vote”.

Page 87: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 87

SEcTIon 5

Resources

Page 88: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 88

Useful links

Parliament: http://www.parliament.uk

Political Parties

Conservatives – http://www.conservatives.com

Labour - http://www2.labour.org.uk/home

Lib Dems – http://www.libdems.org.uk

Polls

www.politicalbetting.com

Blog dedicated to trying to predict election outcomes based on polls and analysis, edited by Lib Dem activist Mike Smithson.

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog

Tory pollster Anthony Wells’ authoritative blog on all UK opinion polls, also includes seat profiles and his own notional 2005 results.

http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Investment banker Martin Baxter’s seat predictor – uses a mathematical model to work out which seats change hands based on any particular national vote share.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8280050.stm

BBC poll tracker

Partisan Political Blogs

http://conservativehome.blogs.com

News and views from Tory activists, edited by former Iain Duncan Smith aide Tim Montgomerie.

http://www.labourlist.org

The main Labour activist blog.

http://www.iaindale.blogspot.com

Westminster gossip from Tory blogger Iain Dale.

http://www.libdemvoice.org

the main blog for Lib dem activists.

Page 89: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 89

Further reading

Media Guide to the New Parliamentary ConstituenciesProfessor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael ThrasherUniversity of Plymouth, 2007The authoritative notional results of 2005 on the new boundaries.

The Almanac of British PoliticsRobert Waller and Byron CriddleRoutledge, 2007Detailed profiles of each new constituency

British Electoral FactsProfessor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael ThrasherBiteback, 2009

Guide to the 2010 General ElectionGreg Callus and Iain DaleBiteback, 2009

Page 90: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010

general election guide 2010 90

Acknowledgements

We would like to thank Professor Colin Rallings and Professor Michael Thrasher of the University of Plymouth for their kind permission to use the data and notional seat results in their “Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies”.

This guide was researched and written by Luke Akehurst, Amy Finlayson, Sophie George, John Lunny, Hannah Marwood, Pavel Miller, Liam O’Keefe, Lisa O’Toole, Daniel Rosenstone, Daniel Sacker and David Swaden.

Page 91: Weber Shandwick UK General Election Guide 2010