webinar: what caused the crime decline?
TRANSCRIPT
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
1/23
Brennan Center for Justiceat New York University School of Law
Inimai Chettiar, Director, Justice Program
Dr. Oliver Roeder, Economics Fellow, Justice Program
Lauren-Brooke Eisen, Counsel, Justice Program
What Caused The Crime Decline?
How these findings apply to work in your state
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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Did Mass Incarceration Cause the
Crime Drop?
• Since 1990 incarceration rate nearly doubled.
• And crime rate was cut in half.
• Did incarceration cause the crime drop? If not, what
did?
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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Quantifying Crime & Incarceration
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Report Methodology
• Examined 14 popular theories for crime decline
• 20 months of research
• An interdisciplinary team: criminal justice
attorneys, economist, economics researchers• Comprehensive data sets from 50 states and 50
biggest cities
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Used a statistical regression model• Informed by large body of economics,
criminology, and law.
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Our Findings Quantified
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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Our Findings
• The growth in incarceration played a limited role in thecrime drop.
– Increases in incarceration were responsible for roughly 5% ofthe crime decline.
– They had essentially zero effect in the 2000s.
• Other factors also played a role:
– Introduction of CompStat (a policing technique): 10% reductionin crime
– Higher income: 7.5% of crime decline
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Decreased alcohol consumption: 7.5% of crime decline – Increased police numbers: 2.5% of crime decline
– Aging population: 2.5% of crime decline
– Lower unemployment: 1.5% of crime decline
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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The Effect of Mass Incarceration on
Crime
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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How Could Incarceration Have Had
Such a Low Effect?
• Diminishing returns: “The more we use, the less it works.”
• At astronomical levels, additional incarceration is not effective.
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Why are there Diminishing Returns to
Incarceration?• Offenders are less dangerous/habitual on average
– Too many low-level offenders
– Each additional prisoner becomes less dangerous/habitualon average
• Prison may be “criminogenic” – “Prison-as-school”
– Stigma effect
• Incarcerating the first million people is more effective
than incarcerating the second million.
Our regression model captures these diminishingreturns. So we see a lower effect.
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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The Inefficiency of Incarceration
• High Costs
– Fiscal: $260 billion on criminal justice each year
– Economic: Country’s poverty rate would have
been 20% lower without mass incarceration.
– Social: 2.7 million children with incarcerated
parent.
• Low Benefits – Incarceration at today’s levels is ineffective at
reducing crime.
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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Can you decrease incarceration &
decrease crime?
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Yes!
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New York
• Reduced prison
population by 26% and
crime fell by 28% since
2000.• In 2009, repealed the
Rockefeller Drug laws,
and reduced felony
arrests.
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California
• Reduced its prison
population by 26% and
crime fell by 18% since
2000.• U.S. Supreme Court
order to reduce
imprisonment in 2011.
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Texas
• Reduced its prison
population by 20% and
crime fell by 26% since
2000.• In 2007, in lieu of
building prisons,
appropriated $200
million to treatmentprograms.
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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What is CompStat?
•Managementtechnique
• System ofaccountability &
results• Relies on data
• Originated in
NYPD in 1994.• Used in 41 of 50
biggest cities.
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City Examples
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What works in policing?
• Takeaway: More police, better managed, can
bring down crime.
• Introduction of CompStat is associated with a
10% decline in crime.
• Increasing numbers of police officers
contributed to 5% of the crime drop.
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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What do all these numbers mean
for bills in my state?
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Support Reforms to:
• Reducing bail amounts
• Reclassifying felonies to misdemeanors
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Removing incarceration for low-level crimes• Reducing sentences for marijuana possession
• Reducing mandatory minimums
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Support Reforms to: (contd.)
• Expanding treatment and reentry
• Expanding parole/likelihood of release
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Raising the age of criminal responsibility
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Findings do not support:
• Increasing bail amounts
• Increasing sentences for drug offenders
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Increasing mandatory minimums• Restricting parole/likelihood of release
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8/9/2019 Webinar: What Caused The Crime Decline?
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Thank You & Questions
• Resource Page:https://www.brennancenter.org/what-caused-crime-decline
– Report, What Caused the Crime Decline? – State Fact Sheets
– Legislative Strategy Document
– PowerPoint
• Contact: LB Eisen, Counsel, [email protected];646-292-8320