week 11: ecological effects of climate change€¦ · 2. individual species responses to climate...

Week 11: Ecological Effects of Climate Change

Fig 18.1 – From IPCC 2007

1.  Climate Change: Predictions and complexities

2.  Individual species responses to climate change

3.  Methods for predicting ecological effects

2

Fig 18.1 – From IPCC 2007

Global Climate Change:Unambiguous Physical Changes

~0.74 °C observed in the past century


Predicted mean increases in temperature:

Interna<onal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report 2007

1.4 – 3.6 °C during the next century

Global Climate Change – 2007 Predictions:Increase in surface temperatures over next century


4


Global Climate Change - 2013 Predictions:Increase in surface temperatures over next century

Interna<onal Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Report 2013

5 Fig 18.2

Climate change is more complex than changes in only mean temperature

Observed trends in average temperature (C change / yr)

Observed trends in total precipitation (% change /yr)

IPCC 2001

§  Increased variance in T§  Magnitude dependent on location§  Changes in precipitation


Climate is the fundamental determinant of species distributions

WhiJaker, R.H. (1977) Communi'es & Ecosystems. 6

2. Individual species responses to climate change

What is the fate of a population ��if its environment becomes unfavorable?

evolu<on ex<nc<on range shiP range contrac<on

range expansion

before:

a5er:

phenology shiP

ADAPT GO

EXTINCT SHIFT IN TIME

SHIFT IN SPACE

7


Phenology��timing of life cycle activities and ecological events

8


growing season!

+ warming

9 Courtesy of EM Wolkovich

2. Individual species responses to climate change Phenology��timing of life cycle activities and ecological events

growing season!

+ warming


2. Individual species responses to climate change Changes in Phenology��timing of life cycle activities and ecological events

Change in sp

ring <m

ing

in days/de

cade

Parmesan 2007

Changes in Phenology��timing of life cycle activities and ecological events


Changes in Phenology��timing of life cycle activities and ecological events


Adapted from Root et al. 2003

Spatial Responses: Range (and abundance) shifts

Parmesan et al. 1999, Nature

range contraction

Poleward shifts

range expansion

13


Spatial Responses: Range (and abundance) shifts

Parmesan et al. 1999, Nature

range contraction

Poleward shifts

range expansion

14


Perry et al. 2005 Science 308: 1912-‐1915 15



heritable, genetic changes

black cappitcher-plant mosquitoYukon red squirrel

Selection will favor strategies that allow for population persistence in the same location in response to the changing climate.

Phenotypic plasticity: ability of an organism to change its phenotype in response to changes in environment;§  encompasses morphological, physiological, behavioral, phenological changes§  fundamental to coping with environmental variation

Science.

Experiments that manipulate climate ��used for over 20 years


3. Methods for predicting ecological effects

EXPERIMENT: warm alpine meadow with hea<ng lamps RESPONSE: compare phenology and plant abundance between treatments

19


Experiment: increase temperature ��(and speed up spring snowmelt) in alpine meadow

Experiment: increase temperature ��(and speed up spring snowmelt) in alpine meadow

RESULTS: -  Plants flowered earlier in

warming treatment (by 1.5 – 6 days)

-  Warming altered community composi<on (more shrubs, fewer flowering plants)

Dunne, Harte & Taylor, 2003, Ecol. Monographs Harte & Shaw, 1995, Science

Flowering plants Grasses Shrubs

Julian date Biom

ass (g/m

2 )

?

20


Experiment: manipulate variability in rainfall

Rainfall manipula<on shelters Konza Prairie, Kansas

Same TOTAL rainfall, changed frequency and intensity of storms

Ambient rainfall many small storms

Altered rainfall fewer, larger storms

Precipita<on (mm)

Date


Diversity

(H’)

Do experiments and observations ��predict the same responses to warming?

Experiments! Observations!

vs.!



Global synthesis ��of warming effects on plant phenology



Common metric for both data types

-  Calculated change in days per °C!


Experiments show smaller effects

1,634 species! matching species!

Wolkovich et. al., Nature, 201225

Courtesy of EM Wolkovich


Why do experiments underpredict ��long-term responses?



Making predictions with experiments that manipulate climate

-  Can test mechanisms by which species abundances change

-  Can address effects of climate on mul<ple species simultaneously

-  Best way to handle climate change that hasn’t yet been experienced

Advantages Limita<ons -  Experiments underpredict

responses -  Predic<ons across large

spa<al and temporal scales are limited due to difficulty of manipula<ons

-  Short dura<ons usually don’t allow <me for evolu<on to occur

27


Building bioclimate envelope modelsEn

vironm

ental V

ariables

Species

Distrib

u<on

Model calibra<on Model evalua<on

1.  Create a sta<s<cal model of current species distribu<on by choosing the set of environmental variables that is best correlated with the distribu<on

2.  Using model results and predic<ons for future climate, predict species distribu<on in the future

Final model: project future distribu<ons

28


Making predictions with bioclimate envelopes

Abies amabalis (Pacific silver fir)

Hamann & Wang, 2006, Ecology

Mean annual temperature

ClimateBC (UBC Centre for Forestry Conserva<on Gene<cs)


How will the distribution of Pacific silver fir ��in B.C. change with climate change?

Abies amabalis

Hamann & Wang, 2006, Ecology 30


Making predictions with climate envelopes

-  Can make predic<ons across large spa<al and temporal scales

-  Can be done with data that are rela<vely easy to get

Advantages Limita<ons -  -  -  - 

Environm

ental

Varia

bles

31


Assumptions about movement

Ability to move through landscape

Dispersal ability

32


Assumptions about species interactions

Phenological mismatch

Loss of key mutualist

33


Assumptions about rates of change

Velocity of climate change may outpace speed at which species can respond

Non-‐linear responses are likely

Loarie et al. 2009, Nature

Patz & Olson 2006, PNAS

Days that a malaria parasite needs to develop inside a mosquito

34


Climate velocity

Climate velocity 1960-‐2009

to the two-dimensional spatial gradient in temper-ature (in °C/km, calculated over a 3°-by-3° grid),oriented along the spatial gradient. We introducedthe seasonal climate shift (in days/decade) as theratio of the long-term temperature trend (°C/year) tothe seasonal rate of change in temperature (°C/day).We present seasonal shifts for spring and fallglobally using April and October temperatures.

The median rate of warming since 1960has been more than three times faster on land(0.24°C/decade) than at sea (0.07°C/decade,Fig. 1A and table S1). At the scale of our anal-ysis, median spatial gradients in temperature onland (0.0082°C/km, Fig. 1B and table S1) aregreater than those at sea (0.0030°C/km) becauseof the greater latitudinal and topographical tem-

perature differences on land, whereas large-scalecurrents tend to reduce small-scale variability inocean surface temperatures. When spatial gradi-ents are combined with rates of long-term tem-perature change, the resulting median velocity ofisotherms across the ocean (21.7 km/decade) is79% of that on land (27.3 km/decade), but whencomparing only those latitudes where both landand ocean are present (50°S to 80°N), velocitiesin the ocean (27.5 km/decade) are similar to thoseon land (27.4 km/decade). The frequency dis-tribution of velocities in the ocean is bimodal(Fig. 2A), with a broader spread of positive val-ues in the ocean than on land and many negativevalues in cooling areas, including the SouthernOcean and Eastern Boundary Current regions

with increased upwelling (Fig. 1, A and C, andfig. S1D). The relative proportions of warm-ing and cooling areas influence the land/oceancomparison (table S1): With less cooling, me-dian velocity in the Northern Hemisphere oceanis 37.3 km/decade but only 30.3 km/decade onland, whereas in the Southern Hemisphere me-dian velocities are 17.6 and 14.6 km/decade forland and ocean, respectively. The velocity of cli-mate change is two to seven times faster in theocean than on land in the sub-Arctic and within15° of the equator (Fig. 1C), but ocean and landvelocities are similar at most other latitudes (20°to 50°S and 15° to 45°N).

At the scales studied, the velocity of climatechange is very patchy on land, whereas the ocean

>2010 - 205 - 102 - 51 - 20.5 - 1-0.5 - 0.5-1 - -0.5-2 - -1-5 - -2-10 - -5-20 - -10< -20

Seasonal shift (days/decade)

> 200100 - 20050 - 10020 - 5010 - 205 - 10-5 - 5-10 - -5-20 - -10-50 - -20-100 - -50-200 - -100< -200

Velocity (km/decade)

0.02

0Spatial gradient (°C/km)

0.5

-0.5

Temperature change (°C/decade)

A

B

C

D

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

-0.2 0 0.2 0.4

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

0 0.01 0.02 0.03

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

-50 0 50 100 150

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Fig. 1. (A) Trends in land (Climate Research Unit data set CRU TS3.1) and ocean(Hadley Centre data set Had1SST 1.1) temperatures for 1960–2009, with latitudemedians (red, land; blue, ocean). (B) Spatial gradients in annual average tem-peratures using the same data; cross-hatching shows areas with shallow spatialgradients (<0.1°C/degree). (C) The velocity of climate change (km/decade) is thevelocity at which isotherms move: positive in warming areas, negative in cooling

areas, and generally faster in areas of shallow spatial gradients. (D) Seasonal shift(days/decade) is the change in timing of monthly temperatures, shown for April,representing Northern Hemisphere spring and Southern Hemisphere fall: positivewhere timing advances, negative where timing is delayed. Cross-hatching showsareas with small seasonal temperature change (<0.2°C/month), where seasonalshifts may be large. See fig. S3 for October seasonal shifts.

02468

101214

-200 -50 -10 -1 0 1 10 50 200 500 1000 2000Velocity (km/decade)

LandOcean October

AprilN hemisphere

SpringS hemisphere

Fall

AdvanceDelay

S hemisphereSpringN hemisphere

Fall

B

C

Per

cent

age

Per

cent

age

Per

cent

age

A

0

5

10

15

20

-100 -50 -20-10-5 -2-1 -0.1 0 0.1 1 2 5 10 20 50 100Seasonal shift (days/decade)

LandOcean

0

5

10

15

20

-100 -50 -20-10-5 -2-1 -0.1 0 0.1 1 2 5 10 20 50 100Seasonal shift (days/decade)

LandOceanFig. 2. Frequency histograms for (A) velocity of climate change and

seasonal shifts for (B) October (see also fig. S3) and (C) April for land andocean surface temperatures. Peaks associated with positive and negativevelocities and seasonal shifts correspond to areas of warming and cooling.

www.sciencemag.org SCIENCE VOL 334 4 NOVEMBER 2011 653

REPORTS

on

Nov

embe

r 3, 2

011

ww

w.s

cien

cem

ag.o

rgD

ownl

oade

d fro

m

tothe

two-dim

ensionalspatialgradientintem

per-ature

(in°C/km

,calculatedover

a3°-by-3°

grid),oriented

alongthe

spatialgradient.Weintroduced

theseasonal

climate

shift(in

days/decade)as

theratio

ofthelong-term

temperature

trend(°C

/year)tothe

seasonalrateofchange

intem

perature(°C

/day).Wepresent

seasonalshifts

forspring

andfall

globallyusing

Apriland

Octobertem

peratures.The

median

rateof

warm

ingsince

1960has

beenmore

thanthree

times

fasteron

land(0.24°C

/decade)than

atsea

(0.07°C/decade,

Fig.1Aand

tableS1).A

tthe

scaleof

ouranal-

ysis,median

spatialgradients

intem

peratureon

land(0.0082°C

/km,Fig.

1Band

tableS1)

aregreater

thanthose

atsea(0.0030°C

/km)because

ofthe

greaterlatitudinal

andtopographicaltem

-

peraturedifferences

onland,w

hereaslarge-scale

currentstend

toreduce

small-scale

variabilityin

oceansurface

temperatures.W

henspatialgradi-

entsare

combined

with

ratesof

long-termtem

-perature

change,theresulting

median

velocityof

isothermsacross

theocean

(21.7km

/decade)is

79%ofthaton

land(27.3

km/decade),butw

hencom

paringonly

thoselatitudes

where

bothland

andocean

arepresent(50°S

to80°N

),velocitiesinthe

ocean(27.5

km/decade)are

similarto

thoseon

land(27.4

km/decade).

The

frequencydis-

tributionof

velocitiesin

theocean

isbim

odal(Fig.2A

),with

abroader

spreadof

positiveval-

uesinthe

oceanthan

onland

andmany

negativevalues

incooling

areas,including

theSouthern

Ocean

andEastern

Boundary

Current

regions

with

increasedupw

elling(Fig.1,A

andC,and

fig.S1D

).The

relativeproportions

ofwarm

-ing

andcooling

areasinfluence

theland/ocean

comparison

(tableS1):

With

lesscooling,

me-

dianvelocity

inthe

Northern

Hem

isphereocean

is37.3

km/decade

butonly

30.3km

/decadeon

land,whereas

inthe

SouthernHem

isphereme-

dianvelocities

are17.6

and14.6

km/decade

forland

andocean,respectively.T

hevelocity

ofcli-mate

changeistwoto

seventim

esfaster

inthe

oceanthan

onland

inthe

sub-Arctic

andwithin

15°ofthe

equator(Fig.1C),but

oceanand

landvelocities

aresim

ilaratm

ostotherlatitudes

(20°to

50°Sand

15°to

45°N).

Atthe

scalesstudied,the

velocityof

climate

changeisvery

patchyon

land,whereas

theocean

>2010 -

205

-10

2-

51

-2

0.5-

1-0.5

-0.5

-1-

-0.5-2

--1

-5-

-2-10

--5

-20-

-10<

-20


> 200100 - 20050 - 10020 - 5010 - 205 - 10-5 - 5-10 - -5-20 - -10-50 - -20-100 - -50-200 - -100< -200

Velocity (km

/decade)

0.020S

patial gradient (°C/km

)

0.5

-0.5

Temperature change (°C

/decade)

AB

CD

-90

-60

-30 0 30 60 90

-0.20

0.20.4

-90

-60

-30 0 30 60 90

00.01

0.020.03

-90

-60

-30 0 30 60 90

-500

50100

150

-90

-60

-30 0 30 60 90-10-5

05

1015

20

Fig.1.(A)Trendsinland

(Climate

ResearchUnitdata

setCRUTS3.1)and

ocean(HadleyCentre

datasetHad1SST1.1)tem

peraturesfor1960–2009,withlatitude

medians

(red,land;blue,ocean).(B)Spatialgradientsin

annualaveragetem

-peratures

usingthe

samedata;cross-hatching

showsareas

withshallow

spatialgradients(<0.1°C/degree).(C)The

velocityofclim

atechange

(km/decade)isthe

velocityatwhich

isothermsm

ove:positiveinwarm

ingareas,negative

incooling

areas,andgenerallyfasterin

areasofshallowspatialgradients.(D

)Seasonalshift(days/decade)isthe

changeintim

ingofm

onthlytem

peratures,shownforApril,

representingNorthern

Hemisphere

springand

SouthernHem

ispherefall:positive

wheretim

ingadvances,negative

wheretim

ingisdelayed.Cross-hatching

showsareas

withsm

allseasonaltemperature

change(<0.2°C/m

onth),whereseasonal

shiftsmay

belarge.See

fig.S3forOctoberseasonalshifts.

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

-200-50

-10-1

01

1050

200500

10002000

Velocity (km

/decade)

LandO

ceanO

ctober

April

N hem

isphereS

pringS

hemisphere

Fall

Advance

Delay

S hem

isphereS

pringN

hemisphere

Fall

BC

Percentage

Percentage

Percentage

A

0 5 10 15 20-100-50

-20-10-5

-2-1-0.1

00.1

12

510

2050

100S

easonal shift (days/decade)

LandO

cean

0 5 10 15 20-100-50

-20-10

-5-2-1

-0.10

0.11

25

1020

50100


LandO

ceanFig.

2.Frequency

histogramsfor

(A)velocity

ofclim

atechange

andseasonalshifts

for(B)O

ctober(see

alsofig.S3)and

(C)Aprilforland

andocean

surfacetem

peratures.Peaks

associatedwith

positiveand

negativevelocities

andseasonalshiftscorrespond

toareas

ofwarming

andcooling.

www.sciencem

ag.orgSC

IENCE

VOL334

4NOVEM

BER2011

653

REPORTS

on November 3, 2011www.sciencemag.orgDownloaded from

Burrows et al. 2011 Science

miles per decade

> 120

< -120

-5 to 5

−75 −70 −65

36

38

40

42

44

46

Longitude

Latitude

●

●

Distribu<on shiPs 1968-‐2008

Spring

−75 −70 −65

36

38

40

42

44

46

Longitude

Latitude

●

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Distribu<on shiPs 1968-‐2008

Spring

12 miles per decade

−180 −160 −140 −120 −100 −80 −60

3040

5060

Longitude

Latitude

●

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Fish follow climate velocity

Pinsky et al. in review

Warming and poleward

−180 −160 −140 −120 −100 −80 −60

3040

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Fish follow climate velocity

Pinsky et al. in review

Short-term cooling and

to south

Summary: making predictions with climate envelopes

-  Can make predic<ons across large spa<al and temporal scales

-  Can be done with data that are rela<vely easy to get

Advantages Limita<ons -  No interac<ons with other

species -  Assume species can move to

the new habitat – dispersal limita<on; habitat fragmenta<on

-  Assume response to climate is linear

-  Ignore evolu<onary changes

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Predictions for future global extinctions

Thomas et al. 2004: We predict, on the basis of mid-‐range climate-‐warming scenarios for 2050, that 15–37% of species in our sample of regions and taxa will be 'commiJed to ex<nc<on'.

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week 11: ecological effects of climate change€¦ · 2. individual species responses to climate...

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