WEEK 12.2 CLIMATE CHANGE AND POLITICSSubtitle

Today

Politics is made up of these interactions.

Global Interactions

- The players and their role

- Global Agreements

National Interactions

- Political Parties and their role (Australia)

- Federal, state and local government

Human Interactions

- Private companies

- Statistics

- The people’s role – Next week

Global Interactions: the Players

People who produce the evidence:

Scientific Researchers

Universities

Government bodies

Military

Private sector

Created by the World Meteorological Organisation and the United Nations Environment Programme.

Provides government with regular assessments on the scientific basis of climate change.

Creates reports synthesising the science for policy makers.

Authors are selected based on their scientific expertise and its relevance to a specific section of a report. There are hundreds of Authors on each report.

Expert reviewers are requested, or volunteer. The reports go through several rounds of review.

Authors and Reviewers work on the reports on a voluntary basis.

Every report is available on the IPCC website to anyone.

http://www.ipcc.ch/

Peer Reviewed Scientific Journals

NGOs

Usually funded by donation or collaboration with government. The world bank is funded by outside investment.

Run research projects, grant money to outside projects, advocate for objectives.

http://www.worldbank.org/

Global Interactions: the Players

People who make the rules:

The United Nations; Global Mitigations Agreements

National Governments

The United Nations

Founded 1945, at the end of WWII with the signing of the UN Charter by 50 states. Came into force when the majority of signatories ratified on 24 October 1945.

UN programmes include: UNDP, UN-Women, UNICEF, WFP,UNEP, UN-Habitat etc

Works with many specialised agencies through negotiated agreements: World Bank, WHO, IMF, FAO, WMO etc.

The UN charter is an international treaty, and is legally binding.

The UN has a security council, which can take enforcement measures, from economic sanctions to international military action, in order to maintain or restore international peace and security.

The UN International Court of Justice upholds international law, and settles legal disputes submitted to it by states.

UN and it’s programmes encourage human rights and development goals by creating and encouraging member states to participate in conventions and programs.

Side Note

What does “signed” and “ratified” mean?

“Ratification” and “signature” are both different names for the process whereby a state indicates to the other contraction parties its consent to be bound by the adopted international agreement. But still there is a difference between both terms

Signed: Two types, a “simple signature” – which will need to be ratified, and a “definitive signature” which does not.

When a state offers a “simple signature” (most common for international treaties), then it must refrain from doing anything that will defeat the objective of the treaty, in good faith.

Ratified: The treaty/contract is then taken by a state to its parliamentary body for approval. Once this approval is achieved, the state has ratified.

Global Interactions: The UNFCCC

The UNFCCC is a “Rio Convention”, one of three adopted at the “Rio Earth Summit” in 1992. Its sister Rio Conventions are the UN Convention on Biological Diversity and the Convention to Combat Desertification

UNFCCC entered into force in 1994. Is the parent treaty of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. And the 2016 Paris Agreement.

197 Parties to the Convention.

The objective of both treaties is to stabilise GHG concentrations in the atmosphere.

Delivers the Conference of the Parties (COP) annually.

COP22 to be held in Marrakech, Morocco 7-18 November.

Global Interactions: The Montreal Protocol

Agreed on September 1987, into force January 1989.

The Montreal Protocol sets binding progressive phase out obligations for developed and developing countries for all the major ozone depleting substances.

The Multilateral Fund, was created under the Protocol in 1990 to provide financial assistance to developing countries to help them achieve their phase out obligations.

The Montreal Protocol targets 96 chemicals in thousands of applications across more than 240 industrial sectors.

The Multilateral Fund has provided more than US $2.5 billion in financial assistance to developing countries to phase out production and consumption of ozone depleting substances.

Since 2009, the Montreal Protocol has had complete ratification (196 countries).

Global Interactions: The Montreal Protocol

Global Interactions: The Kyoto Protocol

Adopted 1997 in Kyoto Japan.

Detailed rules were laid out and adopted at COP7 in 2001.

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/kpeng.pdf- protocol text.

Annex-1 Parties were given an assigned amount of emissions that they were not allowed to exceed, and had to adopt “a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period 2008 to 2012.”

Went into full force only in 2005. when more than half parties had ratified.

Greenhouse gases: Carbon dioxide (C02) Methane (CH4) Nitrous oxide (N20) Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)

Added additional article to require states to reduce GHG emissions that were left out of the Montreal protocol (CFCs from aviation and marine bunker fuels).

Global Interactions: The Kyoto Protocol

Assigned amounts to countries were assigned as a percentage of the “base year” emissions and measured in Carbon Dioxide Equivalent units:

Global Interactions: The Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol allows Annex I Parties to add to or subtract from their initial assigned amount, thus raising or lowering the level of their allowed emissions over the commitment period, by trading Kyoto units with other Parties. These additions and subtractions are carried out in accordance with the so-called Kyoto mechanisms:

• Emissions trading under Article 17: Annex-1s can sell their assigned units to other Annex-1s.

• Joint implementation (JI) under Article 6: Annex-1s can invest in another annex-1’s project and gain credit for their investments.

• Clean development mechanism (CDM) under Article 12: non Annex-1s (developing countries) can gain credits from afforestation/reforestation or emission reduction projects, that they can then sell to Annex-1s.

Global Interactions: The Kyoto Protocol

Has the Kyoto protocol been successful? Several factors have made the results in reductions of the Kyoto protocol difficult to quantify:

The collapse of the USSR (1991) has led to a decline in many industries in Russia and the Ukraine, meaning these countries have rapidly decreased their CO2 emissions.

Canada pulled out of the protocol on 2011, when it became clear that the protocol would not be met.

The EU ETS has created several complexities for looking at individual nations’ emissions.

Global Interactions: The Paris Agreement

Agreed on and signed at COP 21, Dec 12 in Paris last year.

197 Parties have signed (universal), 81 ratified currently

Central aim “to keep global temperature rise this century well below 2° C, and pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5° C.”

Threshold achieved on the 5th of October this year, agreement enters into force on the 4th of November!

Global Interactions: The Paris Agreement

http://unfccc.int/files/essential_background/convention/application/pdf/english_paris_agreement.pdf

Three aims:

1. Holding the increase in global temperature well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit to 1.5 C.

2. Increase ability to adapt to the adverse impacts and foster climate resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, without threatening food production.

3. Making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions and climate resilient development.

Nationally determined contributions: Parties undertake and communicate their own “ambitious efforts”. There are a lot of conditions for these efforts, but they are voluntary.

Global Interactions: The Paris Agreement

Global Stocktake: The agreement states that the COP will hold periodic stock takes on whether the Paris Agreement is achieving its goals. The first of these is scheduled for 2023, with one every five years thereafter.

There is to be a “mechanism to promote compliance”, consisting of an expert based committee, appointed by the Parties to report on compliance of countries to their targets. The committee will make their reports to the COP meetings each year.

The agreement also created a “mechanism to contribute to mitigation and to support sustainable development”, which countries can contribute to voluntarily.

Parties may withdraw after three years from the date entered into force.

http://unfccc.int/focus/indc_portal/items/8766.php - Intended Nationally Determined Contributions.

Global Interactions: The Paris Agreement

Governments:

How we move forward as a globe in respect to climate change also depends on global government stances and commitments to mitigation.

Governments: China

Current President Xi Jinping, Party, the Communist Party of China.

Every five years, China’s national government adopts a plan that charts the country’s development course for the next five years. Between 2011 and 2015, China implemented a promising Five Year Plan to reduce emissions and mitigate climate change. The Plan established binding targets to increase forest coverage to 21.66 percent, reduce energy intensity by 16 percent, reduce carbon dioxide emissions intensity by 17 percent, and increase the proportion of non-fossil fuels in the primary energy mix to 11.4 percent, all by 2015. Although difficult to assess, many agree that China was able to meet these targets.

China’s 13th five year plan (FYP), was released in March 2016 and covers the period up to 2020. The headline targets are to reduce energy intensity by 15 percent and carbon intensity by 18 percent compared to 2015 levels

China has also run significant tests on seven cap and trade programs to put a price on carbon, and has announced that they plan to begin a nationwide program in 2017.

Governments: USA

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-record/climate- details of Obama’s Climate change efforts.

Announcement and agreement with China: The USA will reduce Carbon emissions 26-28% (2005 levels) by 2025, and China will peak at 2030, and increase its share of non-fossil fuel energy to 20%.

http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf

Governments: USA

Election November 8th:

Hillary Clinton: https://www.hillaryclinton.com/issues/climate/ Hillary Clinton pledges to continue with Obama’s path towards a -30 % emissions in 2030.

Donald Trump: Plans to introduce an energy plan to increase the USA’s use of fossil fuels.

Governments: Canada

Energy and transport sector highest contributors to emissions.

Prime Minister Justin Tudeau, Liberal Party.

Canada did not meet their Copenhagen pledge of a 17% reduction in 2005 emission levels by 2020, but has an Intended Nationally determined contribution for the Paris agreement to 30 % reduction in 2005 levels by 2030.

The Canadian Hydropower and Clean Power Plan is a federal effort, and has introduced emissions standards across several industries.

Many efforts are at provincial level.

Alberta: Law requires emitters to reduce intensity 2% each year, and emitters can trade credits.

British Columbia: Carbon tax on purchase and use of fossil fuels within province.

Quebec: Its own emissions trading system took effect Jan 2013. Includes power sector, industrial facilities and now transport sector.

Governments: European Union

EU ETS- the worlds largest market for greenhouse gas emissions.

Kyoto Target 20 % reduction from 1990 levels by 2020

INDC 40 % below 1990 levels by 2030.

Also maintains targets to increase energy efficiency by 27 % by 2030. Member states voluntarily set their own targets to achieve this.

Governments: India

India’s economy is growing rapidly, and with that, levels of CO2 emissions (still well below per capita average.)

INDC: http://www4.unfccc.int/Submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/India/1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf

2009 National Plan on Climate Change: established eight National Missions addressing solar power, energy efficiency, water issues, sustainable habitat, agriculture, the Himalayan ecosystem, land use, and strategic knowledge on climate change.

Strategic Plan for New and Renewable Energy: provides a broad framework, and the National Solar Mission, which sets capacity targets for renewables. Last year, the Indian government announced it would increase solar ambition to 100 GW installed capacity by 2022, bring solar power to every home by 2019, and invest in 25 solar parks.

Current Five Year Plan: proposes a National Wind Energy Mission which will boost wind energy production to 50,000 to 60,000 MW by 2022. The government also announced new vehicle fuel-economy standards of 4.8 liters per 100 kilometers (49 MPG) by 2021-2022, a 15 percent improvement.

Governments: Indonesia

INDC: http://www4.unfccc.int/Submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Indonesia/1/INDC_REPUBLIC%20OF%20INDONESIA.pdf

63 % of Indonesia’s emissions are due to land use change (deforestation). In order to reduce their emissions, Indonesia will need to address this factor.

Indonesia has pledged to reduce emissions by up to 41% below “business as usual” (2009) by 2030.

With the current government policies in place, Indonesia is on track to achieve a ~30% reduction, however policy and on-the-ground action don’t appear to match up.

National Interactions: Australia Government

INDC: 26-28 % below 2005 levels by 2030. http://www4.unfccc.int/Submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Australia/1/Australias%20Intended%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contribution%20to%20a%20new%20Climate%20Change%20Agreement%20-%20August%202015.pdf

Prime Minister The Hon Malcolm Turnbull. Liberal Party

Global Interactions: The Paris Agreement

https://www.environment.gov.au/system/files/resources/7c0b18b4-f230-444a-8ccd-162c8545daa6/files/nggi-

quarterly-update-dec-2015.pdf

National Interactions: Australia Government

Policy Framework:

Federal

2011 Clean Energy Future Package: Cleane Energy Act established long term goals to reduce emissions to 80% below 2000 levels by 2050. Introduced a carbon price covering over half of Australia’s emissions (CPM) and the Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI).

Emissions Reduction Fund: where the government will purchase credits from projects that reduce emissions in the industrial and land sectors. The fund currently has AU$ 2.25 billion allocated from the Australian government. A regulator issues credits for each ton of emission reductions that a project produces, which can then be sold to the government through a reverse auction. The ERF is being integrated with the Carbon Farming Initiative, an existing offset mechanism for domestic agriculture projects.

Commonwealth:

Renewable Energy Target (RET): drives investment in renewable energy.

Carbon Farming Initiative: The Carbon Farming Initiative (CFI) allows farmers and land managers to earn carbon credits by storing carbon or reducing greenhouse gas emissions on the land. These credits can then be sold to people and businesses wishing to offset their emissions.

http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/reviews/targets-and-progress-review/part-b

National Interactions: Queensland Government

Queensland Government

http://www.ehp.qld.gov.au/assets/documents/climate/advancing-climate-action.pdf report on Advancing Climate Action in Queensland. 11 May 2016

National Interactions: Queensland Government

“In 2006, the then Queensland Government enacted legislation to end broadscale tree clearing. This was followed in 2009 by the introduction of protections for high value regrowth. These measures ensured Australia met its Kyoto targets for reducing carbon pollution.

In 2013, the incumbent government rolled back that legislation and presided over a dramatic escalation in land clearing rates.“

“The Queensland Government introduced legislation to Parliament in March 2016 to reinstate a responsible tree-clearing framework for Queensland. The bill is being considered by a parliamentary committee, with the committee’s report due to Parliament by 30 June 2016.”

This bill was not passed in Parliament.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-08-19/queensland-

parliament-tree-clearing-laws-fail-unesco-fears/7765214

National Interactions: Queensland Government

Q-CAS:

Human Interactions: Australia

Private sector. Many large companies are moving towards higher efficiency in energy use and investing in renewable technologies.

Usually in the form of corporate social responsibility, often in response to customer base desires.

Australia

Australia

Stats Australian opinion polls (the Lowy Institute):

53% of Australians: global warming is a serious and pressing problem [and] we should begin taking steps now even if this involves significant costs.

88% : the use of fossil fuels is in decline and Australia should invest more in alternative energy sources.

79%: we should reduce our reliance on them to help combat climate change.

53 %: Support continuing coal exports to keep our economy strong.

Australia

79% of Australians say that “the use of Fossil fuels causes global warming and we should reduce our reliance on them to help combat climate change.”

References

http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/lowy-institute-poll-2016

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/BriefingBook45p

http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php

http://www.army.gov.au/Our-people/Meet-our-people/Health-Care-Science-and-Chaplaincy/LT-Rourke

http://europatientrights.eu/countries/signing_and_ratifying_a_treaty.html

http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/publications/08_unfccc_kp_ref_manual.pdf

http://olr.npi.gov.au/atmosphere/ozone/legislation/montp.html

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/blog/2012/nov/26/kyoto-protocol-carbon-emissions

http://www.circularecology.com/news/the-kyoto-protocol-climate-change-success-or-global-warming-failure#.WAB_-oVOLic

http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/kyoto-protocol-10th-anniversary-timely-reminder-climate-agreements-work/

http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/COP21-FAQs.pdf

References

http://climatechangeauthority.gov.au/chapter-4-global-action-reduce-greenhouse-gas-emissions

http://www.wri.org/blog/2014/11/6-graphs-explain-world%E2%80%99s-top-10-emitters

http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/chinas-climate-change-policies-actors-and-drivers

http://www.c2es.org/international/key-country-policies/china

http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/09/china%E2%80%99s-climate-policies-how-have-they-performed-and-where-do-they-need-go

https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/ccep-research/china

http://www.c2es.org/international/key-country-policies/china

https://ccep.crawford.anu.edu.au/ccep-research/Indonesias-climate-change-policy

https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/emissions-reduction-fund/cfi/about