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29 DEC 02 JAN 2015 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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Page 1: Weekly Commodity Trading Tips And Market News

29 DEC – 02 JAN 2015

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

Page 2: Weekly Commodity Trading Tips And Market News

MAJOR EVENTS

Gold advanced the most in more than two weeks amid speculation that China, the

world’s biggest consumer, will take more measures to bolster the economy, boosting

demand for the precious metal as a store of value.

The People’s Bank of China plans to temporarily waive a requirement for lenders to

set aside reserves for some deposits, people with knowledge of the matter said. Gold

surged 70 percent from December 2008 to June 2011 as central banks increased

money supply on an unprecedented scale. Gold has rebounded almost 6 percent from

a four-year low reached in November as China lowered interest rates last month to

spur economic growth and Japan expanded its unprecedented stimulus program. The

moves rekindled concern that global inflation could rise even as U.S. consumer costs

stay below the Federal Reserve’s goal. Speculation that China will do more to support

the economy is creating demand for gold. At some point with all this money in the

system, we could see some concern about inflation. Gold futures for February delivery

climbed 1.9 percent to settle at $1,195.30 an ounce at 1:40 p.m. on the Comex in New

York, the biggest gain for a most-active contract since Dec. 9. Prices declined 1.9

percent in the previous three sessions.

Natural gas slumped below $3 per million British thermal units in New York for the

first time since 2012 on speculation that record production will overwhelm demand

for the heating fuel.

Futures settled at the lowest in 27 months and have plunged 26 percent in

December, heading for the biggest one-month drop since July 2008, as mild weather

and record production erased a surplus to year-ago levels for the first time in two

years. Temperatures will be mostly above average in the eastern half of the U.S.

through Dec. 30.

Natural gas for January delivery fell 2.3 cents, or 0.8 percent, to settle at $3.007 per

million Btu on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $2.973, the

lowest intraday price since Sept. 26, 2012. Volume was 54 percent below the 100-day

average for the time of day at 2:32 p.m. Gas dropped 13 percent this week, a fifth

straight weekly decline.

Natural Gas Drops

Below $3 for First

Time Since 2012.

Expectations of

Weak Chinese

Data Squeeze

Copper.

Copper got squeezed on the expectations that the Industrial data from China due to be

released tomorrow would remain weak. China consumes more than 40 percent of

Copper and the debacle in its demand can crumble the non ferrous metals especially

Copper.

Meanwhile, the volumes remained laggard as the traders still remained on holidays

due to Christmas. Gains in Dollar were troubling Dollar denominated currencies. In

foreign exchange markets, US Dollar remained on the higher side of the spectrum

compared to Euro.

The Dollar is now at 28 months highs against the Euro forcing traders to bet lower on

the commodities like Copper. These commodities have also faced crisis on account of

growing expectations of supplies in coming days. This month, U.S. gross domestic

product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of

4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June. On MCX, Copper was trading at Rs

405.6 per kg, up 0.33 percent. The prices are expected to move lower but not

significantly as the volumes are not progressing forward indicating lack of volatile

activity.

Gold Advances

Most in Two

Weeks on China

Stimulus

Speculation.

Page 3: Weekly Commodity Trading Tips And Market News

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Dec 30 7:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 4.4% 4.9%

8:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 94.6 88.7

Dec 31 7:00pm Unemployment Claims 287K 280K

8:15pm Chicago PMI 60.2 60.8

8:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% -1.1%

9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 7.3M

10:30pm Natural Gas Storage -49B

Jan 1 All Day Bank Holiday

Jan 2 8:15pm Final Manufacturing PMI 54.1 53.7

8:30pm ISM Manufacturing PMI 57.6 58.7

8:30pm Construction Spending m/m 0.4% 1.1%

8:30pm ISM Manufacturing Prices 43.1 44.5

Page 4: Weekly Commodity Trading Tips And Market News

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

26500 26050 25525 27350 27800 28200

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

35800 34500 33600 38200 39450 40600

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed choppy movement,

tested the support level of 26500 and

there is also trendline support. Now, if

it is able to sustain above 27300 then

next resistance level is seen around

27800. On other hand if it maintain

below 26500 then bearish movement

take it towards the next support level

of 26000.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 27300 for the targets of 27800

with stop loss of 26400.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

sideways movement last week, found

support around 35800 and closed

above to it. Now, if it sustain above

38000 then next resistance is seen in

the range of 39300-40000. On lower

side maintain below 35830 then next

support is seen around 34500. If it is

closed below 34500 then it could test

recent bottom of 33500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to sell below 35800 for

the target of 33500, with stop loss of

39200.

Page 5: Weekly Commodity Trading Tips And Market News

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

3435 3125 2885 3765 4060 4350

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

397.80 394.50 389.80 406.40 410.70 415

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed bearish

movement and closed around 400.

Important trendline has been broken

and its also look like a small head and

shoulder now if it is sustain below 400

then it will move towards 390 next

important support. On the other hand

immediate resistance is seen near 411,

if it is closed above this resistance

then next resistance will be seen at

418.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell below 3500 for the target of 3300,

with stop loss of 3750.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

sideways movement found support of

psychological level of 3500 and

consolidate around it. Now, if it sustain

below 3500 then bears may again

active and find next support around

3100. If some correction occurs and

maintains above 3800 then 4000 will

act as major resistance for it.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 400, with stop loss of 412 for the

target of 390.

PIVOT TABLE

Page 6: Weekly Commodity Trading Tips And Market News

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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