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27 JAN 30 JAN 2015 W E E K L Y R E P O R T Blow by Blow On Bullions, Base metals, Energy… WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

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27 JAN – 30 JAN 2015

W E E K L Y

R

E

P

O

R

T

Blow by Blow

On

Bullions,

Base metals,

Energy…

WWW.TRIFIDRESEARCH.COM

MAJOR EVENTS Gold futures are trading sideways today though the COMEX futures linger below

$1300 perounce mark. Prices have come off their five month highs. Sharp gains in US

dollar havecapped gold this week. Safe-haven demand propped up the metal last

week as a break above$1200 per ounce extended following the surprising news that

Swiss National Bank abruptlyabandoned the Swiss franc's peg to Euro. This week, the

traders are booking profits afterprices soared 10% in first three weeks of 2014. Even

the much touted ECB QuantitativeEasing decision is not helping gold much. COMEX

Gold is trading at $1297.10 per ounce,down $3.60 per ounce on the day. MCX Gold

futures are quoting at Rs 28055 per 10 grams, upRs 19 per 10 grams on the day.

The US dollar is quoting near a fresh 11 year high around 1.1300 against the Euro.

ECBPresident Mario Draghi said yesterday that the central bank would make monthly

bondpurchases of as much as 60 billion Euros starting in March, and running through

Septemberof next year. Draghi's announcement came after the ECB held benchmark

rates unchanged atrecord lows. This has boosted stocks around the globe and the

European indices are tradingaround with gains of around 1.5%-2%.

Oil fell to the lowest in almost six years on speculation the death of King Abdullah of

Saudi Arabia won’t signal any change in strategy for the world’s largest crude

exporter.

U.S. benchmark oil futures slid 1.6 percent, reversing an initial gain of as much as 3.1

percent. Salman Bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, who succeeds Abdullah on the throne, said he

would maintain his predecessor’s policies. The kingdom will not cut production to

boost prices because other producers would fill in the gap, Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin

Talal Al Saud said. U.S. crude inventories rose the most since 2001 last week,

according to a government report on Thursday.

“There already has been a pretty well established succession plan so it’s not a big

deal,” said Kyle Cooper, director of commodities research at IAF Advisors in Houston.

“Supply has been very stout and demand’s not been what people had expected. It

highlights the bearish sentiment in the market.”

Oil Falls to Lowest

Since ’09 as Saudis

Signal Continuity.

Copper Declines

On MCX, WBMS

Reports Provides

Little Support.

The latest data release from WBMS has posted little support to Copper as prices have

declined sharply. Moving closer to Rs 340 prices are showing limited resilience. When

last checked, MCX Copper February expiry was trading at Rs 346.2 per kg. The prices

have tested a high of Rs 349.5 per kg, and a low of Rs 346.2 per kg. Data from Chinese

PMI was still disappointing as it came below 50. China with the release of the HSBC

Flash China Manufacturing PMI which beat expectations of 49.5 with a print of 49.8.

However the index still lingers in the contraction zone below 50. According to a data

released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), copper was in a shortage of

122000 tons in the first eleven months of 2014. Copper market recorded a surplus of

283000 tons in 2013. Global consumption of copper totaled 21.05 million tons in the

first eleven month of 2014 and the figure in 2013 was 21.04 million tons. Global

output of refined copper totaled 2.01 million tons in November, as the consumption

was 2.04 million tons. WBMS also mentioned that global lead was in a surplus of

13,700 tons in the first eleven months of 2014. Lead market recorded a shortage of

94000 tons in 2013. Global consumption of lead saw a decrease of 347,000 ton in the

first eleven month of 2014. Global output of refined lead totaled 877,300 tons in

November, as the consumption was 881400 tons.

Gold

Consolidates Just

Under $1300.

E C O N O M I C C A L E N D E R

DATE & TIME DESCRIPTION FORECAST PREVIOUS

Jan 27 7:00pm Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.7%

7:00pm Durable Goods Orders m/m 0.6% -0.9%

7:30pm S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y 4.7% 4.5%

8:15pm Flash Services PMI 53.9 53.3

8:30pm CB Consumer Confidence 95.7 92.6

8:30pm New Home Sales 452K 438K

8:30pm Richmond Manufacturing Index 6 7

Jan 28 9:00pm Crude Oil Inventories 10.1M

Jan 29 12:30am FOMC Statement

12:30am Federal Funds Rate <0.25% <0.25%

7:00pm Unemployment Claims 301K 307K

8:30pm Pending Home Sales m/m 0.6% 0.8%

9:00pm Natural Gas Storage -216B

Jan 30 7:00pm Advance GDP q/q 3.1% 5.0%

7:00pm Advance GDP Price Index q/q 0.9% 1.4%

7:00pm Employment Cost Index q/q 0.6% 0.7%

8:15pm Chicago PMI 58.1 58.3

8:30pm Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 98.5 98.2

8:30pm Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.4%

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

27545 27145 26665 28271 28690 29085

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

39040 37600 36385 40600 41975 43270

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX GOLD showed sideways to bullish

movement, and gave breakout of

inverse head and shoulder pattern and

also closed above it. Now, if it is able to

maintain above 28300 then upward

movement will expected and next

resistance level is seen around 29100.

On other hand if it sustains below

27500 then bearish movement may

drag it towards the next support level

of 26500.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to buy

above 28300 for the target of 29000

with stop loss of 27450.

PIVOT TABLE

G O L D

PIVOT TABLE

S I L V E R

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX SILVER on daily charts showed

upward movement last week, and

closed above its important resistance

of 39200. Now, if it maintains above

40600 then next resistance is seen in

the range of 42500-43000. On lower

side sustains below 38800 will drag it

to support level of 38000 below which

again brears may active and find next

support around 35700.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this

point of time is to buy above 40600 for

the targets of 42000-43000, with stop

loss of 38800.

C R U D E O I L

C O P P E R

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

2750 2600 2450 3140 3440 3730

S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3

340 320 310 351 360.85 370

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Copper last week showed bearish

movement and not able to maintains

above 23.6% retracement level and

again drag to its recent low of 341.

Now if it sustain below 340 then again

bearishness will drag it towards next

important support level of 330. On the

other hand if some correction occur

on higher side then immediate

resistance is seen around 352.50.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to

sell on highs for the target of 2500, with

stop loss of 3150.

PIVOT TABLE

T E C H N I C A L V I E W

MCX Crude oil last week showed

bearish movement and break the

important support of 2870 and closed

below it. Now, the next immediate

important support level is seen around

2750 if it sustain below this level, then

next support level is seen around 2550.

On the other hand if it maintains above

3000 then 3140 will act as major

resistance level.

S T R A T E G Y Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell

below 340, with stop loss of 355 for the

target of 330.

PIVOT TABLE

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