weekly market review - best consumer digital bank … bank of fujairah’s subsidiary nbf capital...

Weekly Market Review May 10, 2015 – May 16, 2015

May 17, 2015

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CONTENTS

International Equity Markets

GCC Equities

Currencies

Commodities

Interest Rates

Equity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

Commodity Markets - Top Most & Bottom Most

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NFIB US small business confidence advanced by 1.7 points to 96.9 in Apr, registering largest gain since Dec 2014

University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment index for May plunged to 88.6 from 95.9 in Apr

Industrial output slipped 0.3% in Apr after a similar decline in Mar, partly due to a fall in oil & gas drilling

Retail sales stood flat in Apr, adding to signs economy is struggling to gain after it barely grew in 1Q2015

Job openings slid slightly in Mar to 5mn from 5.1mn job openings in Feb. Hiring rate stood at 3.6% in Mar

Euro zone GDP rose 0.4% QoQ & 1.0% YoY in 1Q2015 as cheap food, fuel boosted spending and ECB added stimulus

Germany’s GDP edged up 0.3% QoQ in 1Q2015, below forecasts and down from 0.7% growth recorded in 4Q2014

The IMF expects Germany to grow above 1.6% in 2015 it forecasted in Apr, led by private consumption

French economy expanded by 0.6% in 1Q2015, strongest in 2 years helped by a 0.8% rise in consumer spending

Greece's economy shrank 0.2% in 1Q2015 followed by a 0.4% decline in 4Q2014 led by debt crisis & political turmoil

Bank of England cut UK growth estimate to 2.5% in 2015 & 2.6% in 2016 from 2.9% earlier predicted for both years

Chinese banks turn cautious on slow earnings growth & rising bad loans and disbursed Yuan 708bn new loans in Apr, ~20% below expectations. Fixed-asset investment grew 12% in Jan-Apr 2015, the slowest pace since Dec 2000

Factory output rose 5.9% YoY while retail sales climbed 10.0% in Apr, both slightly below forecasts

Japan’s current a/c surplus widened to ¥2.8tn in Mar 2015 helped by weaker yen and cheaper energy import bill

Consumer confidence worsened in April for the 1st time in 5 months, sliding to 41.5 vs. 41.7 in Mar

India’s retail prices rose by 4.87% YoY in Apr, below the 5.25% rate in March. Industrial output growth slowed to 2.1% in Mar vs. 4.9% (revised) growth in Feb, raising the case of interest rate cut by central bank in Jun 2015

India and China signed 24 bilateral agreements worth $10bn on May 15 covering diverse areas of cooperation

Russian economy contracted by 1.9% YoY in 1Q2015, hit by sanctions and falling energy prices

Ukraine GDP shrunk 17.6% YoY & 6.5% QoQ in 1Q2015, sapped by continued violence in east industrial heartland

S&P 500 – 1 year performance Euro Stoxx 600 – 1 year performance

Source: Bloomberg, Mashreq Private Banking

INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

Last Close Change 5 Day % YTD %

S&P 500 2,122.73 6.63 0.31 3.10

DJI 18,272.56 81.45 0.45 2.52

Nasdaq Comp 5,048.29 44.74 0.89 6.59

Euro Stoxx 600 396.45 -3.71 -0.93 15.74

FTSE 100 6,960.49 -86.33 -1.23 6.01

Dax 11,447.03 -262.70 -2.24 16.74

CAC 40 4,993.82 -96.57 -1.90 16.88

Nikkei 225 19,732.92 353.73 1.83 13.08

Hang Seng 27,822.28 244.94 0.89 17.87

Brazil - Bovespa 57,248.63 99.30 0.17 14.48

Russia - Micex 1,691.46 -17.06 -1.00 21.11

BSE Sensex 27,324.00 218.61 0.81 -0.64

Shanghai Comp 4,308.69 102.77 2.44 33.20


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Aldar Properties reported a 36.3% YoY jump in its 1Q2015 bottom-line to AED618mn, revenue fell 19.8% YoY

Arabtec Holding posted a net loss of AED279.8mn in 1Q2015 vs. a net profit of AED137.9mn in 1Q2014

Abu Dhabi National Insurance Company’s 1Q2015 net income plunged to AED5.1mn from AED55mn in 1Q2014

National Bank of Fujairah’s subsidiary NBF Capital concluded a syndication transaction worth AED180mn for ZAFCO

Drake & Scull International recorded a 37.8% YoY decline in 1Q2015 profitability to AED25.1mn

Tabreed seeks shareholders’ nod to repurchase AED854mn mandatory convertible bonds at a cost of ~AED1bn

Union Properties’ 1Q2015 net income slumped 84.3% to AED28.1mn from AED179.8mn in 1Q2014

Alibaba Group’s unit Aliyun will set up a venture with Meraas Holding to establish a cloud computing unit in Dubai

Marka acquired restaurant chain Reem Al Bawadi for around AED315mn as a part of its long-term growth strategy

Abdullah A. M. Al-Khodari signed an AED225mn Islamic credit facility agreement with Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank; renewed its existing Islamic credit facility with Samba Financial Group amounting to SR379mn

Saudi Telecom signed a deal with Etisalat for interconnection between multiprotocol label switching networks

Saudi Aramco reportedly plans to spend between $70-80bn on overseas acquisitions & investments over next 5 yrs

Kuwait-based telecom operator Zain reported a 26.7% fall in 1Q2015 net income to KWD41mn

National Bank of Oman increased the size of its Euro Medium Term Notes program to $1.5bn from $600mn earlier

Nama Group’s subsidiaries will invest OMR2.14bn in Oman’s power sector over a course of five years

Phoenix Power Company is raising OMR56.3mn from a 35% stake sale. IPO opened for subscription on May 10

Qatar’s Ooredoo signed a 5-year $500mn revolving credit facility for general corporate purposes

Gulf Warehousing plans to raise QAR458mn from secondary markets to strengthen capital base and for expansion

Aluminium Bahrain said it is optimistic about receiving approval for its $2.5bn Line 6 expansion project in 2015

Bahrain-based Ithmaar Bank’s net profit attributable to equity holders surged 426% YoY in 1Q2015 to $2.64mn


Dubai 4,072.68 -30.81 -0.75 7.91

Abu Dhabi 4,629.99 75.11 1.65 2.23

Saudi Tadawul 9,731.54 13.64 0.14 16.78

Qatar Index 12,515.86 233.69 1.90 1.87

Kuwait Index 6,356.83 -40.13 -0.63 -2.74

Oman MSM 30 6,361.86 44.20 0.70 0.29

Bahrain All Share 1,391.93 1.67 0.12 -2.43

Egypt EGX 30 8,303.37 -439.05 -5.02 -6.98

Istanbul 100 Index 87,604.89 3,545.00 4.22 2.20


DFMGI – 1 year performance Saudi Tadawul – 1 year performance

GCC EQUITIES


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The US dollar weakened 2.25% against euro in the week to 1.1451 per euro as disappointing data on US domestic factory activity and consumer sentiment spurred doubts about the recovery in the world's largest economy

Japanese yen closed the week gaining 0.4% to 119.25 per US dollar after the Bank of Japan chief insisted that further quantitative easing would not be necessary while a weak dollar also provided support

China’s Yuan recorded the first weekly advance of May 2015 on speculation policy makers prefer a stable currency to bolster global usage and as data showed a surprise surge in investment from overseas. Yuan edged-up 0.05% in the week to 6.2065 per US dollar as foreign direct investment rose 10.5% to Yuan 59.04bn in Apr

Brazil’s real depreciated 0.75% in the week to 2.9969 per US dollar as President Dilma Rousseff faced a June 1 deadline to push budget savings through the Senate. Rousseff’s effort to shore up finances suffered a disappointment this week when the lower house voted to raise spending on pensions several years from now

Malaysia’s ringgit climbed 0.9% to 3.5645 per US dollar in the week buoyed by a rebound in crude oil, brightening prospects of the economy. Malaysian economy grew 5.6% YoY in 1Q2015 after climbing a revised 5.7% in 4Q2014

Taiwan’s dollar advanced 0.8% in the week to 30.449 per US dollar as data from its exchange showed global funds boosted their holdings of the island’s stocks by $339mn over the last four days of the week


EUR/USD 1.1451 0.0252 2.25 -5.35

GBP/USD 1.5727 0.0272 1.76 0.96

AUD/USD 0.8034 0.0102 1.29 -1.72

USD/JPY 119.2500 -0.5100 -0.43 -0.44

USD/CHF 0.9162 -0.0141 -1.52 -7.85

USD/CAD 1.2014 -0.0057 -0.47 3.38

USD/BRl 2.9969 0.0223 0.75 12.77

USD/RUB 49.5320 -1.3815 -2.71 -18.45

USD/INR 63.5163 -0.4212 -0.66 0.75

USD/CNY 6.2065 -0.0028 -0.05 0.02

DXY Index 93.1350 -1.6590 -1.75 3.17

EUR/USD – 1 year performance GBP/USD – 1 year performance


CURRENCIES


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Gold climbed 3.0% in the week as investors pushed back the expected timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate hike on a weaker US currency and lackluster economic data. Tighter monetary policy is seen as a negative for gold

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.5% in the week whereas Brent crude gained around 1.0% as the number of rigs drilling for oil in the US fell by eight to 660 in the week, the lowest level since Aug 2010

Chicago wheat futures appreciated 7.24% in the week, clocking the biggest rise in 6 months as forecasts of storms over the US winter crop areas and short-covering by funds buoyed prices

Cocoa futures on the US ICE exchange closed the week up 7.2%, recording the biggest jump since Aug 2013 as speculators continued to buy after the market soared above its 200-day moving average, breached on May 11

Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade declined 3.2% in the week as a report from the US Department of Agriculture showed world soybean inventories will rise 12% by the end of the season that starts on Oct 1, reaching an all-time high of 96.22mn metric tons

Palm oil futures moved up for a second straight week by 2.1% on the back of strong exports data from the world's no.2 producer. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May 1-15 rose 54.5% YoY to 737,308 tons


Gold spot 1,224.06 35.68 3.00 3.31

Silver spot 17.50 1.03 6.27 11.45

Copper-CMX 292.45 0.40 0.14 3.50

Brent - ICE 66.81 0.65 0.98 7.58

WTI - Nymex 59.69 0.30 0.51 7.26

S&P GSCI Spot Index

450.76 6.45 1.45 7.81

Baltic Dry Index 634.00 60.00 10.45 -18.93

WTI Crude – 1 year performance GOLD – 1 year performance


COMMODITIES


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US 10-year yield eased 5.4 bps in the week to 2.14% as a batch of weak US data raised expectations the Federal Reserve will need to wait longer to hike interest rates

The Bank of England held its benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0.5% on May 11, where the rates have been since Mar 2009. It also kept the size of its bond purchases under the quantitative easing program at £375bn

The People's Bank of China lowered its benchmark, one-year lending and deposit rate by 25 bps to 5.1% and 2.25%, respectively, effective May 11, 2015 to lower corporate borrowing costs and strengthen a sputtering economy

Chile and Peru held their benchmark interest rate at 3% and 3.25%, respectively on May 14 as high inflation and currency pressure prevent their policy makers from doing more to support growth

The Bank of Korea kept the base rate at a record low of 1.75% on May 15 for the second consecutive month. Meanwhile, upbeat remarks by Governor Lee Ju-yeol pared the chances of another rate cut soon

The Bank of Ghana surprisingly raised its benchmark rate by 1 percentage point to 22% aimed to stem a slide in its currency. The cedi has weakened by 18% in 2015 till May 13, the most among 24 sub-Saharan African currencies monitored by Bloomberg


USD-1w Libor 0.15 -0.0018 -1.18 8.70

USD-3m Libor 0.28 -0.0038 -1.38 7.98

USD-6m Libor 0.41 -0.0015 -0.36 13.77

USD-10yr 2.14 -0.0054 -0.25 -1.33

AED-1m EIBOR 0.41 0.0000 0.00 3.62

AED-3m EIBOR 0.73 -0.0071 -0.97 8.02

AED-12m EIBOR 1.07 0.0000 0.00 5.06

UK-10yr 1.88 0.0040 0.21 7.06

Japan-10yr 0.40 -0.0170 -4.10 23.60

US 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance UK 10 year Generic Yield – 1 year performance


INTEREST RATES


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Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Egypt -5.02% -4.89%

2 Greece -3.21% -1.04%

3 Vietnam -3.08% -4.10%

4 Bulgaria -2.90% -0.75%

5 Germany -2.24% -0.04%

6 Kenya -2.18% -2.74%

7 France -1.90% 0.31%

8 Romania -1.77% 0.41%

9 Cyprus -1.56% 0.65%

10 Hungary -1.54% -0.63%

Ref Country Weekly Change Weekly Change

(USD Adj.)

1 Turkey 4.22% 9.11%

2 China 2.44% 2.49%

3 Ghana 2.34% 0.97%

4 Tunisia 1.99% 2.77%

5 Qatar 1.90% 1.92%

6 Japan 1.83% 2.26%

7 Abu Dhabi−UAE 1.65% 1.65%

8 Jamaica 1.62% 1.20%

9 Israel 1.59% 3.06%

10 Philippine 1.53% 1.96%

WEEKLY

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Venezuela 47.71% 47.71%

2 Argentina 44.26% 36.49%

3 Russia 35.92% 35.92%

4 Hungary 34.62% 31.69%

5 China 33.20% 33.18%

6 Jamaica 29.65% 28.06%

7 Denmark 28.67% 21.47%

8 Portugal 27.54% 20.72%

9 Austria 24.14% 17.50%

10 Italy 23.47% 16.86%

YTD

Ref Country YTD Change YTD Change (USD Adj.)

1 Mongolia -14.01% -16.32%

2 Colombia -10.31% -11.72%

3 Cyprus -9.67% -14.50%

4 Kazakhstan -8.87% -10.68%

5 Bulgaria -7.01% -12.00%

6 Egypt -6.98% -12.72%

7 Mauritius -4.71% -13.57%

8 Zambia -3.24% -14.54%

9 Kuwait -2.74% -5.44%

10 Bahrain -2.43% -2.44%

EQUITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


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Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Steel Rebar -4.51%

2 Sugar -3.95%

3 Bean Meal -3.78%

4 Soybeans -3.17%

5 Lead -3.09%

6 Zinc -2.72%

7 Nickel -2.24%

8 Rubber -2.09%

9 Aluminium -1.91%

10 Palladium -0.92%

Ref Commodity Weekly Change

1 Lumber 7.50%

2 Wheat 7.24%

3 Cocoa 7.22%

4 Silver 6.27%

5 Natural Gas 4.72%

6 Gasoline 3.26%

7 Coffee 3.24%

8 Lean Hogs 3.09%

9 Gold 3.00%

10 Heat Oil 2.62%

WEEKLY

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Gasoline 43.30%

2 Gasoil 19.28%

3 Silver 11.45%

4 Cotton 10.90%

5 Heat Oil 8.57%

6 Cocoa 7.66%

7 Brent Crude 7.58%

8 Rubber 7.27%

9 WTI Crude 7.26%

10 Lead 6.40%

YTD

Ref Commodity YTD Pct Change

1 Lumber -23.83%

2 Orange Juice -20.42%

3 Steel Rebar -20.37%

4 Tin -18.69%

5 Coffee -17.65%

6 Bean Meal -16.81%

7 Rough Rice -16.67%

8 Natural Gas -14.54%

9 Wheat -13.35%

10 Sugar -11.23%

COMMODITY MARKETS - TOP MOST & BOTTOM MOST


Page I 10

IMPORTANT NOTICE

This report was prepared by the Private Banking Unit of Mashreqbank psc (“Mashreq”) in the United Arab Emirates (“U.A.E.”). Mashreq is regulated by the Central Bank of the U.A.E. This report is provided for informational purposes and private circulation only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security or any other financial instrument or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy. Prior to investing in any product, we recommend that you consult with a professional financial advisor, taking into consideration investment objectives, financial circumstances and tax implication. While based on information believed to be reliable, we do not guarantee and make no express or implied representation as to the accuracy of this report or complete description of the securities markets or developments referred to in this report. The information, opinions, forecasts (if any), assumptions or estimates contained in this report are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. The stated price of any securities mentioned in this report is as of the date indicated and is not a representation that any transaction can be effected at this price. The risks related to investment products described in this report are not all encompassing and investors should refer to the relevant investment offer document for detailed information and applicable terms and conditions. Investment products, including treasury products, are not guaranteed by Mashreq or any of its affiliates or subsidiaries unless stated otherwise and are subject to investment risk, including loss of principal. Investment products are not government insured. Past performance is not an indicator of future performance. US persons (US Citizens; US Green Card Holders; Resident Aliens subject to US income taxes for IRS purposes) are not eligible for any of the investment products introduced by Mashreq unless stated otherwise. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Neither Mashreq nor its officers, directors or shareholders or other persons shall be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental or other damages including loss of profits arising in any way from the information contained in this report. This report is intended solely for the use by the intended recipients and the contents shall not be reproduced, redistributed or copied in whole or in part for any purpose without Mashreq’s prior express consent.

weekly market review - best consumer digital bank … bank of fujairah’s subsidiary nbf capital...

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