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(c) crown copyright

Catalogue Reference:cab/66/2/23 Image Reference:0001

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THIS DOCU MENT I S TH EP R O P E R T Y OF H ISBRITA NNIC MAJESTY 'S GOVE RNMENTT O B E K E P T U N D E R L O C K A N D K E YI t is requested t hat special care may be tak en toensure the secrecy of this do cum ent .

3J4 OPYNOoJ2-.

WAR CABINET.NAVAL. MILITARY AND AIR SITUATION.

APPRECIATION BY THE CHIEFS OF STAFFCOMMITTEE.Previous Paper No . W.P. 59) 60.)

Note by the Secretary.

By direction of the Prime Minister, I circulateherewith, for consideration hy the War Cabinet, theattached Weekly Resume No. 5) by the Chiefs of StaffCommittee, dealing with the Naval, Military and AirSituation up to IS noon 5th October Paper No, C C S39) 66 ).

Signed) E.E . BRIDGES.Secretary.

Richmond Terrace, S.W.I.6th October, 1939.

U

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mmq DOCUMENT IS TH E PROP ERTY OF HI S BRITA NN IC M AJES TY S GO VER NM EN TT m ^ , 7

T O B E K E P T U N D E R L O C K A N D K E Y .It is requested that special care may be taken toensure the secrecy of this document.

e En R E T. fi SJi-*- OOPY NO. /

WAR CABINET.CHIEFS OF STAFF COMMITTEE.

Yl/EEKLY RESUME NO.5OF THE NAVAL. MILITARY ANDAIR SITUATION 12*0 NOON 28TH SEPTEMBER TO

12. 0 NOON 5TH OCTOBER,)Previous Pa-pen No. C C S 59) 55 ).

REPORT.Tie accompanying joint Naval, Military and

Air Fore- Resum6 of the situation from 12 .0Noon on28th September to 12 .0 Noon on the 5th October,is circulated in aocord.ance with the recommendationcontained, in Paper No. W . P. ( o ) ( 39 ) 3 , and approved bythe War Cabinet on 7th September W.M.( 3 9 ) 7th Conolusie.ns sMinute 1 7 ) .

-

Signed) DUDLEY POUND.R. F . ADAM, f or C.I.6.S,)R. E.C. PEI RSE. f or C . A.S.)

ntral War Room,8thOctober, 1939

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WEEKL Y RESUME ( NO. 5 OF THE NAVAL, MI LI TARY .AND AI R SI TUATI ON ( 12 NOON 28TH SEPTEMBER TO: 12 NOON 5TH OCTOBER . "

NAVAL SI TUATI ON.

Gener al .Our Naval f or ces have been r e- di sposed t o meet

t he new s i t uat i on consequent on t he r epor t o f a r ai dero f f t he N. E. Coas t of Sout h Amer i ca. Cr ui ser s on f or ei gns t at i ons a r e bei ng concent r at ed i n s t r ong gr oups i n t hemor e i mpor t ant a r eas , t he ol der 6" c r ui ser s r el i ev i ng8" c r ui s er s s o a s t o f r ee t he l at t er f or t hi s pur pos e.

a

2. Submar i ne pat r o l s i n t he Nor t h Sea ar e be i ngmai nt ai ned.

Si x ar med mer chant cr ui ser s ar e now wor ki ng up,and mor e ar e compl et i ng f i t t i ng out shor t l y.Mi nes .

Ther e ar e t hr ee mor e l ays t o compl et e t he sout her npor t i on of t he Pol i cest one- Cape Gr i nez deep m nef i el d.Thi s , wi l l t hen compl et e t he whol e Dover bar r age .Chi na Fl eet .5 J apan i s s t i l l not pr es s i ng her demands a gai ns t u s .However f i ve of our gunboat s have been wi t hdr awn f r om t heYangt se and negot i at i ons ar e pr oceedi ng i n t he hope off ur t her eas i ng t he s i t uat i on i n Ti ent s i n. .Ac ci dent s .6 H. M. S. Barbara had a f i r e l as t i ng sever al hour s butr epai r s shoul d, be compl et ed, by t he 9t h Oct ober .

H. M. Dest r oyer VANOC ha s had an acci dent wi t h herpom- pom and one r at i ng had. di ed of i nj ur i es and 3 ot her sar e i n hos pi t al at L i ver pool .

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4i . 3

At t ac ks o n Br i t i s h Shi ppi ng.Bur i ng t he week under r evi ew 2 Br i t i s h s hi ps hav e

been l os t v i z : 30th Sept ember 8, S Cl ement 5051 t ons ) Sunl c by-r ai der 70 S. E. of Per nambucOo5t h Oc t ober . S. S. Gl en Par g 876 t ons ) by

submar i ne E . o f Or kneys.8. On5th Oct ober S. S. Mar war r i 8O63 t ons) wasbeached i n t he Br i s t o l Channel af t er an expl os i on i nN l ho l d - not yet known whet her i nt er nal oro 0ext er nal .9. Out of37 Vess el s s unk , appar ent l y onl y t hr eehave been des t r oyed i n di s r egar d of I nt er nat i onal Law.The t hr ee cases i n poi nt ar e t he At heni a , Av i emor e ,and Hazel s i de. The case of t he At heni a was gi ven somuch publ i c i t y t hat not hi ng. mor e need be added. I nt he case of t he S, S. Av i emor e t he t r ack of t he t or pedowas seen a f ew seconds bef or e t he expl os i on. I tcannot , however , be sai d t hat t he c r ew wer e l ef t i nopen boat s , as a dest r oyer escor t i ng a convoy was onl yt went y m nut es away. The case of t he Hazel s i de i s r at herdi f f i c ul t . Undoubt edl y t wo war ni ng shot s wer e f i r ed,but accor di ng t o t he Chi e f Engi neer , shel l i ng commencedext r emel y qui ckl y and went on dur i ng t he abandonmentof t he shi p, and a t or pedo was f i red, i nt o t he shi p whi l et he cr ew wwr e get t i ng t he smal l boat away.

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Neut r al Shi ppi ng.10. The f o l l owi ng neut r a l s have been l os t by enemyac t i on - Dat e. Nat i on- Name. Sohnage. Pl ace. Cause .a l i t y .

12. 28t h Sept . Swedi sh Nyl and 3526 L5 m S. W of S/ MSt avanger13. 28t h Sept . Nor wegi an. J er n 7875 Of f coas t of S/ MNor way.14. 28t h Sept . Nor wegi an. Takst aas 1830 Of f Ber gen i n S/M

Skager ak.15. 29t h Sept . Nor vi r egi an. Sol aas 1368 Nor t h Sea Mi ne.16. 1s t Oc t . Be l gi an Suzon 2239 k 2 m N. of S/M

Ushant .17. 1st Oct . Swedi sh Gun 1198 Of f Har t shol m S/MI S. 2nd Oct . Dani sh Vendi a 1150 Of f Har t s hol m S/M19.3rd Oct . Gr eek Di amant i s1 990 50 m S. W. S/M

Land End.11. On Lt h Oct ober , t he Nor wegi an Hoegh Tr anspor t er ,9 L tons , was m ned of f Si ngapor e. The Mas t er f ai l ed

. t o c ompl y wi t h Br i t i s h i ns t r uc t i ons f or avoi di ng t hem nef i el d. Thi s i s t he f i r s t neut r al t o s t r i ke aBr i t i s h m ne.12. . The s ubmar i ne whi ch sank t he Fi nni s h Wal ma on23rd Sept ember gave her a cer t i f i cat e t o say she hadt o be des t r oyed on t he g r ound of t he des t i na t i on oft he f r ei ght . The Mas t er of t he No r wegi an Takat aas ,sunk of f Ber gen on 28t h Sept ember , has st at ed t hat t heCommander of t he Ger man submar i ne r ef used t o l ookat t he shi p' s paper s and sa i d he had or der s t o s i nk al ls hi ps wi t h c ar go f or Gr eat Br i t ai n.13. Among t he neut r al shi ps t aken i nt o a Ger manCont r aband s t at i on i s t he Swedi sh Kor shol m 2,6h7 t onswi t h F i nni s h wood pul p and paper f or W l m ngt on,De l awar e U. S. A.

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Convoys.l h. The t ot al number - orf shi ps convoyed up t o 3rdOct ober was 992 No s hi ps i n convoy have yet been sunkby enemy act i on.

I n consequence of t he s i nki ng of S. S. Cl emental l sai l i ngs f r om Sant os and. Ri o d.e J anei r o have beensuspended f or t he pr esent .U boat oper at i ons .15. Ther e has been a mar ked decl i ne i n U boatac t i vi t y. Thi s i s at t r i but ed t o var i ous caus es v i z :

a) t he change- over of submar i nes at t he endof t he f i r s t mont h of t he wa r ;b) t he i nc reased, ef f i cacy o f our def ens i vemeas ur es , whi ch t end t o make at t acks ,par t i cul ar l y on convoys , mor e haza r dous ;c) t he weat her ; andd) U- boat s maki ng passage t o t he coast s of t he

Amer i cas t o oper at e t her e,16 I n a br oadcast on t he3 th Sept ember t he Ger manss t at ed t hat t hey i nt ended, i n f ut ur e t o r egar d, ever y Br i t i shmer chant man as a war s hi p. They st at ed t hat s ever al Ger mansubmar i nes had been at t acked by Br i t i sh mer chant shi psr ecent l y , and t hat , t her ef or e, al t hough Ger man submar i neshad hi t her t o conf or med, t o I nt er nat i onal La?/ i n f ut ur e t heymus t r et al i at e.17. Repor t s i ndi cat e t hat Ger man submar i nes ar econt i nui ng to a t t ack neut r a l shi ps i n t he Skagger ak andt he v i c i ni t y . The Ger man cont r aband cont r ol se r vi ce i nt he Kat t egat and Skagger ak i s s t i l l bei ng mai t ai ned bydes t r oyer s , ai r c r af t and s ubmar i nes .18. Ther e i s a r epor t of t wo l ar ge submar i nes of fL i s bon, whi c h, i f t r ue, c onf i r ms t he bel i ef of Ger mans ubmar i nes oper at i ng f ur t her af i el d.

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19* Submar i ne bases ar e suspect ed, i n t he Canar yI s l ands and. i t i s es t i mat ed t hat seven or ei ght l ar gesubmar i nes may now be i n t he At l ant i c , I t seems c l eart hat many submar i nes ar e com ng out , bot h f r om t he Ger manBi ght and. f r om Kat t egat , Those oper at i ng i n t he Nor t hSea and Skagger ak ar e l i kel y t o be of t he smal l er t ype.

20 The submar i ne whi ch s ank t he Gr eek S. S. Di amant i sl anded 28 o f t he cr ew of t hat shi p i n Di ngl e Bayon S. W SOast o f I r el and on ht h Oct ober .Ant i - Submar i ne oper at i ons .21 Ver y f ew cont act s have been made and onl y ni nehunt s have been c ar r i ed out , wi t h i ndec i s i ve r es ul t s .

Twent y- t wo A/ S Tr awl er s ar e now i n comm s si onand. a- f ur t her 31 shoul d be comm ss i oned dur i ng t he nextseven days, I n addi t i on t o t hese, one A/ S Yacht i s i n comm s si on and si x mor e shoul d, be r eady wi t hi n a week.These l at t er ar e at pr esent bei ng f i t t ed wi t h dept hchar ges onl y. I t i s i nt ended t o f i t guns and asdi c s ,l at er .J Erj rman Fl eet .22. No f ur t her r el i abl e i nf or mat i on of Ger man mai nuni t s has been obt ai ned, dur i ng t he l ast week . W t h t heexcept i on of t he r ai der r epor t ed to have si uak t heBr i t i sh S. S. Cl ement , no ma i n uni t s appear t o be a t sea.The r ai der i s. r epor t ed by sur v i vor s t o be t he Ger manpocket bat t l eshi p Adm r al Scheer . F or t wo r easons ,however , t he i dent i f i cat i on i s open t o doubt . I n t hef i r s t pl ace t her e was a good r epor t of t he Adm r alScheer ' s pr esence i n t he Schi l l i ng Roads on U t Sept emberwhence s he coul d not have r eached. Per nambuco i n s i x days .The r a i der - was al so r epor t ed t o have a t r i pod mast andt he onl y known shi ps i n t he Ger man- Uavy t o be so f i t t ed

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nnIar e t he c r ui se r s Hi pper and BTucher . I t may be t hatt he r ai der i s one of t hese t wo shi ps di sgui sed to l ookl i ke t he Adm r a l Seheer wi t h the obj ec t of dr awi ng ourheavy s hi ps f r om Home Wat er s23 The Gr eek s t eamer Papel emos whi ch l ef t p/ uenos Ai r eson t he 13th Sept ember and i s due at St . Vi ncent Gape Ver deI s l and on t he 8 th Oct ober r epor t s t hat she has on boar dt he Capt ai n and. Chi ef Engi neer of S S Cl ement Vi /hen t he3Cl ement was s unk on 30th Sept ember of f Per nambucoPapel emos mus t have been bet ween Per nand Hor anha and.St . Paul s Rocks whi ch i ndi cat es t hat t he r ai der or at t endantves s el pr oc eeded at any r at e at f i r s t i n t he di r ec t i on of

Cape Ver de I sl and2h. I t i s i nt er es t i ng t o not e t hat t he Adm r alScheer hav i ng Di ese l engi nes has a r adi us of ac t i oni vhi ch woul d pr obabl y enabl e her t o pr oceed f r om Ger manyt o Sout h Amer i ca and back wi t hout f ue l l i ng wher eas t heHi pper c l ass be i ng t ur bi ne shi ps woul d pres i m abl yr equi r e t o r e- f uel on ar r i val at Sout h Amer i c a.Econom c War f a r e 25o No neut r al shi p has yet been sei zed i n pr i ze.The t ot al t onnage of car go so f ar sei zed i n pr i ze i s289L56o I n compar i son onl y 139 250 t ons i n Br i t i s h shi psdest i ned f or Gr eat Br i t a i n had been l os t by enemy ac t i onup t o t he end of Sept ember .26 I n v i ew of t he ac t i on of t he Sov i et Gover nment i ndec l i ni ng t o al l ow Br i t i s h s hi ps i n Rus s i an por t s t oc l ear f or home unt i l t hei r car goes had. been. pai d f or i nAmer i c an dol l ar s or Swedi s h- k r o ner i t i s i nt er es t i ngt o not e t hat t he of f i c i al Russ i an Expor t Agency hasappr oached Fi nni sh Swedi sh and. Nor wegi an f i r ms t o suppl ys hi ps t o expor t Rus s i an t i mber t o Gr eat Br i t ai n. I tshoul d. however be not ed t hat t he Ger mans have decl ar ed

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4 Ql i b

t i mber t o t ie uncondi t i onal cont r aband and i n t wo caseshave sunk shi ps wi t hout mor e ad. o, mer el y f or havi nghad on boar d car goes of cont r aband f or Gr eat Br i t a i n,Ger man Mer chant Shi ppi ng.27. The HacU?i ds cons i der abl e engi neer i ng act i v i t yi s r epor t ed, on boar d t hi s shi p and i n Ger man wor kshopsashor e at Las Pal mas. The As cunci on at Las Pal masi s. r epor t ed t o be l i kel y t o sai l s hor t l y, as wel l ast he Madr i d, The Mont e Pasc oal and Pr osyder wer er epor t ed 2h0 m l es east of t he Amazon on t he 28t hSept ember and i t i s t hought t hat t he Schar nhor st mayt r y t o r each Vl adi vos t ok f r om Kobe . The Nor t h Ger manL l oyd s t eamer Co l umbus , a pot ent i a l r a i der , has beenl y i ng at Ver a Cr uz ( Mexi co) s i nce Sept ember 9t h and i snow r epor t ed t o have l ef t t hat por t f or Ant on Li zard. owi t h t he Mexi can neut r al i t y guar d. s on board. . Ther e ar evar i ous r epor t s f r om di f f er ent par t s o f t he wor l d,of pendi ng sal es of Ger man mer chant men, but exchangedi f f i cul t i es s eem t o be hol di ng up negot i at i ons .28 A r port f r om Cal l aOyPer uj , s t at es t hat t he Ger mans hi ps xalco- t i s Her mont hi s ^ Lei pzi g and Munchen wer e duet o s ai l f r om Cal l ao on t he ni ght of t he 3r d or ni ght ofht h Oct ober , They wer e t o be met by 3 submar i nes andsubsequent l y by Deut chl and or Gr af Spee whi ch woul d, ar mt hem The l as t r epor t r ecei ved of wher eabout s ofDuet chl and was on 22nd Sept ember and. of Gr af Spee on2ht h Sept ember when bot h wer e r epor t ed i n t heW l hel mshaven ar ea.MI SCELL ANESOUS I NTELL I GENCE.29. The Naval At t ache, Ho l l and, s t at ed t hat Dut chs econd mat e of a shi p who l ef t Hambur g on t he 28t h Sept emberover l and r epor t ed t hat t hr ee Ger man shi ps of t he Hambur g

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Amer i can l i ne bet weenh and t housand t ons bal l ast edwi t h sand woul d l eave Hambur g wi t hi n U.8 hour s accompani edby 6 U- boat s . The obj ect of t he mer chant shi ps woul dbe t o act as decoys enabl i ng t he submar i nes t o at t achexam ni ng ves s el s3 The Br i t i sh Consul at Las Pal mas r epor t s t hatt he G- er man aer opl ane Nor dwi nd has r et ur ned and beenhoi st ed on boar d t he Ost mar k. I n ot her wor ds t heycont i nue t o oper at e i n neut r al . wat er s.31 Ther e have been f ur t her r epor t s o f Mast er s ofshi ps bei ng made t o si gn a f or m by Ger man submar i nessayi ng t hat t hey wi l l not go to sea agai n dur i nghos t i l i t i es

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MI LI TARY SI TUATI ON.

WESTERN THEATRE.Br i t i s h Expedi t i onar y F or c e.32. The 1st Cor ps and G H Q Tr oops ar e now t aki ng overt he sec t or al l ot t ed t o t he Br i t i s h Expedi t i onar y Sbr c e.

The movement of t he 2nd Cor ps t o i t s As s embl y Ar eawi l l be compl et ed by t he begi nni ng of next week af t erwhi c h i t wi l l pr oc eed t o t ake over a por t i on of t heBr i t i s h s ect or .Oper at i ons .33. The Fr ench have had some m nor successes i n t heSaar ar ea and ave r epul sed a l l Ger man ef f or t s t o di s l odget hem

Ger man oper at i ons have been conf i ned t o m norr econnai ssances and some ar t i l l er y f i r e i n t he sec t orbounded by t he Mosel l e and Rhi ne. Ther e have been nooper at i ons on t he Rhi ne F r ont i . e. s out h of Kar l s r uhe.Ger man Tr oop Movement s .34. A week ago 43 Ger man di vi s i ons wer e r epor t ed on t heWest e r n F r ont . Ther e ar e now at l eas t 52 di v i s i ons i naddi t i on t o whi ch el ement s of sever al ot her di v i s i ons havebeen r epor t ed. To what ext ent t he i ncr ease i s due t o t het r ans f er of di vi s i ons f r om Pol and or f r om Cent r al Ger manyi s not known. The mai n f l ow of r ei nf or cement s has beent owar ds t he sect or bet ween t he Mosel l e and Rhi ne. Cer t a i ni ncr eases i n t he number of t r oops on t he Dut ch- Bel gi anf r ont i er s and on t he s out her n hal f of t he Rhi ne f r ont i erhave al so been r epor t ed.

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-re has been nob i g concent r at i on of Ger manmec hani z e d uni t s i n t he f r ont i er r egi ons and i t i s bel i evedt hat t he maj or i t y of t he mec hani z ed di vi s i ons ar e r ef i t t i ngi n Ger many. They coul d, however , be qui ckl y moved t o anysect or wher e an of f ensi ve was cont empl at ed.t er man, For 11f,1 cat i ons j35. New def ensi ve wor ks have been r epor t ed i n t hef ol l owi ng ar eas ;

i ) Opposi t o t he Sout her n Bel gi an and Luxembour gFr ont i er .i i ) Bet ween St . Wendel and Thol ey Saar ) .

i i i ) On t he Rhi ne f r o n t oppos i t e Ger s t hei mi v) I n t he ar ea Mul hei m - I s t e i n,Bar r ages , pos s i bl y f or i nundat i on pur pos e s , ar e bei ng

bui l t i n t he ar ea wes t of P i r mas ens ,Swi t z er l and.36. The Swi ss have r ei nf or ced t hei r cover i ng t r oopsoppos i t e t he Ger man f r ont i er i n t he Bas l e r egi on.Spai n.37 The 1937 Cl ass , cons i st i ng of some 50, 000 men, wasor der ed t o be di schar ged on 23r d Sept ember . Four c l assesr emai n wi t h t he Spani sh Ar my.

Numer ous t r oop movement s n o t e d on t he Fr anco-Spani sh f r ont i er may be caused by r el i ef s , ur gent def encewor ks , r eor gani sat i on of t he Ar my or a r ei nf or cement of t hef r ont i er cover i ng t r o o p s A c t i v i t y has been s hown i n t hec ons t r uc t i on o f f r ont i er def enc e wor ks ,

I nur i ng Sept ember a net i ncr eas e of about 5 000 meni n t he gar r i son of Spani sh Mor occo was r epor t ed, pr i nc i pal l ynear t he Fr anco- - Spani sh Mor occan f r ont i er and t he Tangi erI nt er nat i onal Zone,

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4 O OI 0i j

EASTERN THEATRE,Pol and.38. Or gani sed Pol i sh r es i s t ance came t o an end wi t h t hef a l l of War saw on- t he 27t h Sept ember , Modl i n on t he 28t hSept ember and t he Hei Peni nsul a on t he 1st Oct ober .Guer i l l a f i ght i ng i s pr obabl y s t i l l goi ng on i n out l yi ngdi s t r i c t s .The Russ i an Advance i n Pol and.

o By 28t h Sept ember t he Red Ar my had r eached t hegener al l i ne; Gr aj ewo ( 45 m l es N. W of Bi ai l ys t ok) - Mi edz yr z ec ( 40 m l es Wes t of Br es t - L i t ovs k) - Sz c z ebr z es z yn ( 40 m l es S. S. E. of L ubl i n) - Pr z emys l .Si nce t hat dat e no of f i c i a l communi ques have been i ssuedr egar di ng t he l i ne r eached by t he Red Ar my

The r at e of advance dur i ng t he per i od 23r d Sept embert o 28t h Sept ember was bet ween 6 and 10 m l es per day.Thi s was c ons i der abl y s l ower t han t he i ni t i al r at e and.af f or ds i ndi r ec t c onf i r mat i on of a r epor t t hat a ver yser i ous br eakdown had occur r ed i n t he pet r o l suppl y of t heAr my.

The equi pment of t he f i r s t l i ne di v i s i ons of t he RedAr my i s s ai d t o be good, but t hat of t he r eser ve di v i s i onspi t i abl e. The caval r y and i nf ant r y ar e descr i bed as anundi sc i pl i ned r abbl e, but t he appear ance o f t he ar mour edt r oops i s s at i s f ac t or y. I n nor t her n Pol and t he s ol di er sappear t o be gr eat l y i mpr essed wi t h t he s t andar d of l i v i ngof t he peopl e.

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I O c

gj oyj et er mai i . Agr eement .40. The Pol i sh t er r i t or y al l ot t ed t o Ger manyunder t heagr eement wi t h t he Sov i et i nc l udes Danz i g, Wes t P r uss i a ,P os e n and Pol i s h Si l es i a, al l of whi c h hav e b ee n i nc or por -at ed i n t he Rei ch. .

By ac c ept i ng t he new pol i t i c al f r ont i er t he Sovi ethas gi ven up a f r ont i er of a c er t ai n s t r at egi c al s t r engt hi n f avovi r of one wi t h f ew m l i t ar y advant ages . On t heot her hand, s i nce t he new f r ont i er appr ox i mat es c l osel y t ot he Cur zon L i ne , she has put her se l f i n a much s t r ongerpos i t i on pol i t i c al l y and has got r i d of a l ar ge and hos t i l ePol i s h popul at i on.

Accor di ng t o t he t er ms of t he Tr eat y she under t akest o pr ovi de Ger many wi t h f ur t her r aw mat er i a l s , t o he pa i df or hy Ger many i n manuf act ur ed goods over a l ong per i od.Thi s cont r as t s wi t h t he pr ev i ous agr eement , accor di ng towhi ch Russ i a was t o obt a i n f r om Ger many up t o seven year s 'cr edi t f or t he pur chase of Ger man manuf act ur es. The newt r ade agr eement i s , on t he s ur f ac e, hi ghl y benef i c i al f r om t he Ger man poi nt of v i ew. I t i s however doubt f ul whet herSovi et i ndus t r y, al r eady i n a mos t uns at i s f ac t or y s t at e,c a n wai t year s f or i t s new pl ant wi t hout f ur t her s er i ousl os s of ef f i c i enc y, whi c h woul d i nevi t abl y c aus e a s hr i nk ageof t he vol ume of i ndus t r i al r aw mat er i al s avai l abl e f orexpor t t o Ger many.Rus s i an Mobi l i s at i on.41, , I t has now been announced i n Moscow t hat mobi l i sat i oni s pr oceedi ng s moot hl y t hr oughout t he whol e of t he Sov i etUni ont wher eas f or mer s t at ement s i ndi cat ed t hat mobi l i sa t i onwas onl y t ak i ng pl ace i n wes t er n Eur opean Russ i a .

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te. ^

I t i s di f f i c ul t t o as s es s t he r eas ons f or t hi s measur es, a st he Sovi et has a l r eady mobi l i sed as many f or mat i ons asshe coul d ef f i c i ent l y empl oy wi t hout under t ak i ng maj orhos t i l i t i es i n t he V/ est , and f ur t her mobi l i s at i on mus tr educe out put whi ch i s al r eady har dl y su f f i c i ent t o meett he el ement ar y needs o f t he popul at i on.Hungar y, ,4 2 0 Unconf i r med r epor t s i ndi cat e a cons i der abl e degr eeof demobi l i s at i on t o be i n pr ogr es s .

RUSSI A AI TD THE BALTI C STATES.Es t oni a.43. her e was cons i der abl e t ens i on pr i or t o t heconc l us i on of t he new Sov i et - Es t oni an t r eat y on t he 29t hSept ember . The Es t oni an t er r i t or i a l a r my was pl aced at12 hour s not i ce , but t he Gover nment dec i ded not t o mobi l i seunl es s Sovi et br oops ac t ual l y c r os s ed t he f r ont i er .

Under t he t er ms of t he t r eat y t he Sovi et may mai nt ai n ai r and naval bas es at Bal t i ski Bal t i c Po r t ) and ont he i s l ands of Dago and Oese l . A Secr et r epor t s t at est hat t he Sovi et I s t o be al l owed t o mai nt ai n a t ot al of2 5 men at t hese pl aces . A Sovi et Mi l i t ar y Mi s s i onunder t he commander of t he Leni ngr ad Di st r i c t has ar r i vedi n Es t oni a t o wor k out t he m l i t ar y det ai l s .

I t i s now r epor t ed t hat t he Sovi et Gover nment madef ur t her demands on t he 4t h Oct ober f or t he est abl i shment ofan aer odr ome at Vur t su oppos i t e t he i s l and of Oese l ) andgar r i sons at Rohukal u and Haapsa l u oppos i t e t he i s l and o f

s Dago) . he a l so demanded t he t r anspor t at i on of t r oops f ort hese gar r i sons by t r ai n ac r oss Es t oni a t o avoi d danger of

s ubmar i ne at t ac k. I t i s r epor t ed t hat Es t oni a i s notpr epar ed t o accept t hese demands.

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Lat vi a.44. Russ i an concent r at i ons on t he Lat v i an f r ont i er havebeen mai nt ai ned i n spi t e of t he conc l us i on of t he Sov i et - Es t oni an t r eat y . The La t v i an Gover nment t her ef or eant i c i pat e t hat t hey wi l l be f aced wi t h demands of t het ype made t o Est oni a. The demands ar e f or eshadowed asi nc l udi ng t he use o f t he p- ?rt s of L i bau and W ndau asSovi et naval bas es and ext r a- t er r i t or i al r i ght s on t her ai l waysFi nl and.45. The Est oni an- Russi an agr eement caused t he i mmedi at er ei nf or c ement of F i nni s h Coas t def enc es . I t i s pos s i bl et hat F i nl and may ant i c i pat e Russ i an demands by t he of f erof t he i s l ands of Hodl and and t he Lar ansar i gr oup i n r et ur nf or econom c concess i ons .Nor way.46. Addi t i onal Nor wegi an t r oops ana suppl i es ar e sai dt o have been sent t o Sydvar anger i n t he ext r eme nor t h eastof t he count r y. Thi s i s pr esumabl y t he r esul t of r epor t edRuss i an t r oop movement s t o Mur mansk.THE BALKANS.Roumani a47 As a r esul t of agr eement bet ween t he Roumani an andHungar i an Ge er al St af f s some Roumani an t r oops ar ebe l i eved t o have been wi t hdr awn f r om t he Hungar i anf r ont i er but det ai l s ar e l ac ki ng. Ot her wi s e t her eappear s t o be no i mpor t ant change i n t he s i t uat i on.

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. Sovi et m l i t ar y ac t i vi t y on t he Bes s er abi an f r ont i ercont i nues and f or t i f i cat i ons ar e bei ng s t r engt hened. Thema i n Russ i an concent r at i on, var i ous l y es t i mat ed at f r om f i ve t o ni ne di vi s i ons , i s i n t he cent r e, hut t her e ar ei ndi c at i ons of anot her c onc ent r at i on f ur t her eas t .BULGARI A.48. The est i mat es of t he pr esent st r engt h of t heBul gar i an Ar my ( t ot al 12 i nf ant r y di vs , and 2 mobi l e d i vs . )ar e conf i r med by a r el i abl e sour ce. Eour ac t i ve i nf ant r ydi vi s i ons , one act i ve mobi l e d i v i s i on and t wo r eser vei nf ant r y di vi s i ons ar e l oc at ed near t he Tur ki s h f r ont i er ,wher e i t appear s t hat wor k on f or t i f i cat i ons andcommuni cat i ons i s be i ng car r i ed out .

.:0\;';. ;-:\ : ';t' O / , / O OO vGREECE,49, Though det ai l s r egar di ng t he r el axat i on of def ens i ve,measur es on t he Al bani an f r ont i er have not been di scl osed, ,i t i s bel i eved t hat an event ual wi t hdr awal and r educ t i onof gar r i sons ar e cont empl at ed, but t hat t hese measur es wi l lbe car r i ed out sl ow y, . I n t he wi nt er t he mount ai nouscount r y becomes al most i mpas sabl e,TURKEY.5 Wor k on t he os - t i f i c at I ons near t he Thr ac i anf r ont i er i s bei ng ac t i vel y pur sued and i t seems t hat t hedef ens i ve sys t em on t hi s f r ont i er i s t o be mor e ext ens i vet han was at f i r s t con t empl at ed. I t i s bel i eved t hat anew f or mat i on i s be i ng r ai sed at I s t anbul and that i t mayul t i mat el y be expanded t o t he s t r engt h of a cor ps . I t i sof f i c i al l y st at ed t hat t her e ar e st i l l onl y s even i nf ant r ydi vi s i ons , one caval r y d i v i s i on and an ar mour ed br i gadei n Thr ac e.

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I t i s t oo ear l y t o es t i mat e t he ef f ec t of t heRus s o- Ger man pac t on Tur k i s h m l i t ar y di s pos i t i ons , hutunt i l t he Er zur um- Er z i ncan s t r et ch of r ai l way has beencompl et ed i n a f ew week s 1 t i me, i t s eems unl i kel y t hatt her e wi l l be any change i n t he nor mal gar r i son ofeas t er n Anat ol i a.YUGOSLAVI A.51o The s i t uat i on i n Yugos l avi a i s unal t er ed.

Ther e ar e i ndi cat i ons t hat t he r api d success ofar mour ed uni t s and ai r c r a f t i n Pol and has caused t he Yugos l avGener al St af f t o modi f y t hei r pl an t o hol d a l ong l i ne off r ont i er .

MI DDLE EAST.Rei nf or c ement s f r om I ndi a f or Egypt .52. One di v i s i ona l headquar t er s and an i nf ant r y br i gadegr oup, be i ng t he r emai nder of I ndi a' s Ext er nal Def enceTr oops , ar r i ved at Suez on t he 3r d and 4t h Oct ober . '

Tur c o- Sovi et and I r ani an- Sovi et f r ont i er s .53. Ther e ar e i ndi c at i ons t hat Sovi et f or c es on theTur k i sh and I r ani an f r ont i er s have been r ei nf or ced byar mour ed t r oops and ai r cr af t . , A r epor t t hat t hr ee Russ i anc aval r y di vi s i ons have al s o ar r i ved i n t hi s ar ea i sunconf i r med.Si nki ang.54. Thez e i s no conf i r mat i on of t he pr ess r epor t s of 't he movement of 300, 000 t r oops i nt o Si nk i ang. I t i scons i der ed t hat t he f i gur e mus t be a gr oss exagger at i on,t hough i t i s poss i bl e t hat some Sovi et t r oops have been

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gol o o

moved i nt o t he Pr ovi nce e i t her t o ext end t he zone underSov i et cont r ol sout hwar ds wi t h a v i ew t o mak i ng f ut ur edi ver s i ons on t he I ndi an f r ont i er , or t o r ei nf or c e t he.Chi nese communi s t ar m es i n N. W Ch i na 0I TAL Y.Gener al .

Ther e has been some t r ans f er of t r oops f r om t heGer man and Yugos l av f r ont i er s t owar ds t he F r ench f r ont i er ,but i t i s s t i l l unc er t ai n i f t hes e moves r epr es ent r el i ef sor r ei nf or c ement s .

No f ur t her c l asses appear t o have been cal l ed up i nf ul l and some r eser v i s t s ar e bei ng gr ant ed l eave f orseasonal agr i cul t ur al wor k or ar e bei ng r epl aced by ot her snewl y cal l ed up.

Pr evi ous r epor t s t o t he ef f ec t t hat c er t ai n i nf ant r yf or mat i ons despat ched over seas wer e be i ng r epl aced i n t hei rpeace gar r i sons by newl y r a i sed f or mat i ons ar e not yetconf i r med. The dec i s i on announced by Si gnor Musso l i ni t oi nc or por at e 172 Bl ac ks hi r t Mi l i t i a bat t al i ons i n t he r anksof t he Ar my i s of pol i t i c al r at her t han m l i t ar y i nt er es t .

Some deser t i ons ac r oss t he Yugos l av f r ont i er cont i nue.I n gener al , m l i t ar y ac t i vi t y r emai ns s omewhat r el axed.Al bani a.6 Ther e i s s t i l l no c onf i r mat i on of t he r epor t ed

wi t hdr awal of one or per haps t wo di v i s i ons f r om Al bani a,but t her e ar e i ndi cat i ons , t hat one di v i s i on may bewi t hdr awn i n t he near f ut ur e. Rel i ef s of a rmy r eser vi s t per sonnel have cont i nued. Ar r i val s have s l i ght l y exceededdepar t ur es . Ther e ar e f ur t her i ndi c at i ons t hat uni t s haver ever t ed t o- t hei r nor mal peac e s t at i ons f r om ar eas neart he Gr eek f r ont i er .

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57. Ther e has been no- reinforcement^ of XJ A ya^ d3Jring t hepast week, but smal l quant i t i es of mat er i al cont i nue t oar r i ve. Ther e ar e i ndi cat i ons t hat t he I t al i ans may bepr oceedi ng wi t h t he f ormat i on of t he nat i ve ar my cor psof t wo di vi si ons, whi ch i s expect ed t o be or gani sed f r omt henat i ve uni t s exi st i ng i n t he col ony.Dodecanese.S8. . The t ot al st r engt h of r egul ar ar my per sonnel hasbeen r educed by 10 t o 15 per cent .

FAR EAST.M l i t ar y Oper at i ons .59. The J apanese ar epEessing t hei r sout hward advanceagai nst Ghangsha, t he capi t al of Hunan. Oper at i onshave beendel ayed somewhat by r ai n, whi l st Chi nese r esi st ance has beenst r onger t han f or some mont hs past . The J apanese cl ai m t o bewi t hi n t went y m l es of t hei r obj ecti ve.

Spor adi c f i ght i ng has occur r ed i n t he vi ci ni t y of t hebor der of t he Leased Ter r i t ory at Hong Kong where Chi neseguer i l l as pr obabl y ai ded by r egul ar t r oops, have at t ackedJ apanese pos t s . I t seems unl i kel y, however , t hat t he Chi nesewi l l achi eve any i mpor t ant r esul t s.J apanese r ei nf or cement s t o Manchur i a60. . I n Manchur i a t he J apanese ar e st i l l t aki ng pr ecaut i onsagai nst Sovi et Russi a. The dai l y l andi ng of t r oops, hor sesand st or es at Dai r en has cont i nued dur i ng t he past week. .Si t uat i on i n Ti ent s i n.61. . J apanese l osses of war mat er i al due t o f l oods ar eest i mat ed at 6, 000, 000. The f l ood wat er s have suddenl yr eceded f r om t he ci t y l eavi ng t he Br i t i sh Concessi on dr y on28t h Sept ember .

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AI R SI TUATI ON.

Di st r i but i on of Ger man. Ai r For ce.6 No l arge scal e moves of t he Ger man Ai r For ce havebeen not ed dur i ng t he past week. Ther e are i ndi cat i ons,however , t hat uni t s sent dur i ng Sept ember t o r ei nf or ceEast Pr uss i a ar e bei ng wi t hdr awn. Repor t s whi ch havebeen cur r ent of l ar ge concent r at i ons of bombi ng ai r cr af ti n t he Aachen ar ea have not been conf i r med. I n vi ewof t he l ack of sui t abl e aer odr omes i n t hi s di st r i ct t her epor t s ar e unl i kel y t o be t r ue, and i t i s pr obabl e t hatt hey r ef er t o uni t s of Ar my Co- oper at i on and Fi ght erai r cr af t whi ch have been moved up f r om t hei r peace t i mest at i ons east of t he Rhi ne.

Possi bl e ob j ect i ves of Ger man Ai r For ce.63 - A number of r epor t s have been recei ved. i ndiC8 t i ngt hat t he Ger man pl an i n t he event 03?at t ack on Gr eatBr i t ai n i s t o concent r at e agai nst her por t s and shi ppi ng.I t i s i mpossi bl e t o say whet her t hese r epor t s have beenput about del i ber at el y, but t hey ar e i n l i ne wi t h vi ewswhi ch have been expr essed, by Fi el d. Mar shal Goer i ng.

j f est r nFr ont .br Ger man f i ght er ai rcraf t have been act i ve on t he

Fr ench Fr ont dur i ng t he l ast week, par t i cul ar l y i n t heSaar sect or . Sever al r econnai ssances over Fr encht er r i t or y have been car r i ed out bot h by day and. byni ght , on one occasi on over Mont medy.

Rei nf or cement s of f i ght er ai r cr af t ar e st at edt o have ar r i ved on t he Saar f r ont r ecent l y and A. A. gunsand sear chl i ght s t o have been put i n posi t i on i n t heMosel val l ey and on t he Uosel - Rhi ne f r ont .

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Ai r Oper at i ons on t he estern F r ont by t he F r ench Ai rF or c e.6 The Fr ench Ai r For ce has cont i nued t o under t aker econnai s sances of r oad and r ai l movement i n West er nGer many. Owi ng t o di f f i cul t weat her and heavy enemyoppos i t i on i t has been i mposs i bl e t o obt ai n a compl et epi ct ur e of t he movement s whi ch have t aken pl ace dur i ngt he past week , but t her e have been i ndi cat i ons ofmovement s i n t he gener a l di r ect i on of t he Ruhr dur i ngt he per i od 23r d- 50t h Sept ember .

At t acks agai ns t F r ench r econnai ssance ai r c r af t byenemy f i ght er s have cont i nued, but t he F r ench f i ght er s a r enow t aki ng a mor e act i ve par t and have shown t hei rsuper i or i t y over t he M. E. 109. The Fr enc h c l ai m t haton t he 30t h Sept ember t hey s hot down seven Ger manf i ght er s .I t al y.66 Ther e i s no ev i dence o f r ecent moves o f uni t s oft he I t al i an Ai r F or c e, nor of pr epar at i ons f or war .Ev i dence cont i nues t o be r ecei ved t hat I t al y i s anx i oust o make use of her neut r a l i t y t o i mpr ove her expor t t r ade ,and i n par t i c ul ar t o suppl y ar mament s , i nc l udi ng ai r c r af tmat er i al .Oper at i ons i n Pol and.67 F r om i nf or mat i on obt ai ned f r om eye- wi t nes s es i tappear s t hat t he ef f ect of t he heavy Ger man hi gh expl os i vebomb when dr opped i n sof t gr ound, i s ver y l ocal . Theexpl os i on expends i t sel f ver t i cal l y and bombs whi chhave dr opped wi t hi n a few , yar ds of peopl e have l ef tt hem unshaken.

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Royal Ai r F or c e Oper at i ons .Reconnai s s ances i n Nor t h west and Wes t Ger many.68 Day and ni ght r econnai ss ance f l i ght s have beenmade by Bl enhei m ai r cr af t over nor t h- west Ger many mai nl yt o es t abl i s h t he dens i t y of t r af f i c on r oads and r ai l way sand t o exam ne Ger man ai r di spos i t i ons . Two ai r c r af twhi ch set but on t he 28t h Sept ember t o r econnoi t r e t r af f i cmovement s i n t he Osnabr uck- Rhei ne ar ea f a i l ed t o r et ur n.On t he 30t h Sept ember t hr ee Bl enhei ms l ef t t o r econnoi t r eaer odr omes i n nor t h- west Ger many: one of t he ai r cr af twas at t acked soon af t er r eachi ng enemy t er r i t or y andr et ur ned wi t h gun t r oubl e. Anot her i s bel i eved t o havecome down i n t he Nor t h Sea but t he t hi r d f l ew back wi t hphot ogr aphs of a number of Ger man aer odr omes.

Over t he Fr ench- Ger man l i ne uni t s of t he AdvancedAi r St r i k i ng For ce have made a number of r out i ner econnai ssance f l i ght s i nt o Ger man t er r i t or y by bot h dayand ni ght .

On t he 30t h Sept ember f i ve Bat t l e ai r c r af t wer eat t acked at 22 000 f eet over Saar br ucken by f i f t eenMes s er s c hm dt f i ght er s wi t h t he r es ul t t hat f our of t heBat t l es wer e shot down and t he f i f t h c r ashed on r et ur ni ng.The ai r gunner i n t he l as t - named ai r c r af t r epor t ed t hathe had shot down t wo Messer scbm dt f i ght er s i n f l ames andFr ench gr ound obser ver s conf i r med one of t hese succes ses .Of t he c r ews t ot al l i ng t wel ve i n t he Bat t l es whi ch wer eshot down i t has been est abl i shed t hat ei ght escaped bypar achut e and t her e i s some evi dence t hat a ni nt hs i m l ar l y es caped.

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Royal Ai r 1 For ce Component of t he F i e l d Focoe,69o The movement s t o Pr ance of t l xe oper at i onal uni t s of t heRoyal Ai r Por . ce component ar e cont i nui ng.

Ni ght r econnai ss ance of an a l l ot t ed ar ea on t he West er n ..Fr ont was t aken over by one of t he Ar my Co- oper at i on squadr onsas f r om t he ni ght of 29th 30th Sept ember ,Opor at i ons, a, gai nst t he Ger man Fl eet ,70 On t he 29t h Sei ot ember el even Hampdens , i n t wof or mat i ons of s i x and f i ve, made a r econnai ssance f l i ght i nt ot he He l i go l and Bi ght wi t h t he obj ec t of at t ack i ng Ger man navalf or ces, , The f or mat i on of s i x r et ur ned af t er a t t ack i ng t wodes t r oy er s , on whi ch no hi t s wer e obser ved. The f or mat i on off i ve di d not r et ur n, and accor di ng t o Ger man wi r el ess r epot st hese ai r c r af t at t acked uni t s of t he Ger man f l eet . The samesour ce says t hat t he Br i t i sh ai r c r af t wer e at t acked by Ger manf i ght er s and wer e al l shot down, but i t i s adm t t ed t hat t woenemy f i ght er s wer e f or ced down i n t he s ea. Two r econnai ss anceai r cr af t sent out next day f r om t he Coast a l Command t o det er m newhet her any damage had been i nf l i ct ed on t he Ger man Fl eetf ai l ed t o r et ur n.Pr opaganda.7 Leaf l et - dr oppi ng and r econnai ssance oper at i ons wer emade on f i ve ni ght s , on each occas i on by t hr ee or f our Whi t e l yai r cr af t : t he ar eas cover ed r anged f r om Br emen and Hambur g t o

t he Ruhr . Ther e was some oppos i t i on f r om ant i - ai r c r af t guns ,but none f r om enemy f i ght er s and al l t he ai r c r a f t r et ur ned s af el y.Coas t al Command.72 Rout i ne pat r ol s , s ear c hes , r ec onnai s s anc es , and i npar t i cul ar ant i - submar i ne pat r o l s , cont i nued dur i ng t he week ,some of t hem by. t he l i ght of t he moon. Fi ve submar i nes wer es i ght ed f r om t he ai r . Phot ogr aphi c r e connai s s anc e f l i ght s havebeen made t o t he nei ghbour hood of Hel i gol and and t o t he Far oes,

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