weekly system status report 2020 w20 · week 20 : dispatchable generation energy sent out...

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Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5 Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 20 (11/05/2020 – 17/05/2020) Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand Date Available Dispatchable Generation (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) Residual Load Forecast (MW) Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand) Mon 11/May/2020 34,165 545 28,501 28,587 19.5% 21.4% -0.3% Tue 12/May/2020 35,190 504 28,809 28,668 22.7% 24.5% 0.5% Wed 13/May/2020 34,220 24 28,636 28,390 20.5% 20.6% 0.9% Thu 14/May/2020 34,325 366 29,001 29,363 16.9% 18.1% -1.2% Fri 15/May/2020 32,417 456 27,725 28,391 14.2% 15.8% -2.3% Sat 16/May/2020 32,401 451 28,028 28,462 13.8% 15.4% -1.5% Sun 17/May/2020 31,892 455 28,007 27,745 14.9% 16.6% 0.9% Date Total Available Generation Incl Renewables (MW) Non-commercial Generation (MW) RSA Contracted Load Forecast (MW) Actual RSA Contracted Demand (MW) Incl IOS Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non- Commercial Units) Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non- Commercial Units) Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted Demand) Mon 11/May/2020 35,042 545 29,381 29,464 18.9% 20.8% -0.3% Tue 12/May/2020 36,386 504 30,043 29,865 21.8% 23.5% 0.6% Wed 13/May/2020 35,419 24 29,884 29,588 19.7% 19.8% 1.0% Thu 14/May/2020 35,102 366 29,928 30,139 16.5% 17.7% -0.7% Fri 15/May/2020 33,758 456 29,108 29,732 13.5% 15.1% -2.1% Sat 16/May/2020 32,911 451 28,704 28,972 13.6% 15.2% -0.9% Sun 17/May/2020 32,771 455 28,804 28,623 14.5% 16.1% 0.6% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all emergency generation resources. 2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables. 3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation. 4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). 5. These figures do not include any demand side products. 6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

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Page 1: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w20 · Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit 2015 86,436

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 1 of 5

Weekly System Status Report – 2020 Week 20 (11/05/2020 – 17/05/2020)

Introduction This document is intended to provide a general picture of the Adequacy of the National Electricity Supply System in the medium term. The Report will be updated weekly, on Tuesdays and circulated Wednesdays, thereafter, published on the Eskom website, updated on Wednesdays. The values contained in this report are unverified and not official yet and can change at any time. Disclaimer The Data published here is for information purposes only. The content is subject to verification and validation. Eskom shall not be held responsible for any errors or it being misleading or incomplete and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss, damages or expenses, howsoever, incurred or suffered, resulting or arising, from the use of this Data or any reliance placed on it. Historic Daily Peak System Capacity/Demand

DateAvailable

Dispatchable Generation (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

Residual Load Forecast (MW)

Actual Residual Demand (MW) Incl

IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (Residual Demand)

Mon 11/May/2020 34,165 545 28,501 28,587 19.5% 21.4% -0.3%Tue 12/May/2020 35,190 504 28,809 28,668 22.7% 24.5% 0.5%Wed 13/May/2020 34,220 24 28,636 28,390 20.5% 20.6% 0.9%Thu 14/May/2020 34,325 366 29,001 29,363 16.9% 18.1% -1.2%Fri 15/May/2020 32,417 456 27,725 28,391 14.2% 15.8% -2.3%Sat 16/May/2020 32,401 451 28,028 28,462 13.8% 15.4% -1.5%

Sun 17/May/2020 31,892 455 28,007 27,745 14.9% 16.6% 0.9%

DateTotal Available Generation Incl

Renewables (MW)

Non-commercial Generation (MW)

RSA Contracted

Load Forecast (MW)

Actual RSA Contracted Demand

(MW) Incl IOS

Operating Reserve Margin (Excl Non-Commercial Units)

Operating Reserve Margin (Incl Non-

Commercial Units)

Forecast vs. Actual (RSA Contracted

Demand)

Mon 11/May/2020 35,042 545 29,381 29,464 18.9% 20.8% -0.3%Tue 12/May/2020 36,386 504 30,043 29,865 21.8% 23.5% 0.6%Wed 13/May/2020 35,419 24 29,884 29,588 19.7% 19.8% 1.0%Thu 14/May/2020 35,102 366 29,928 30,139 16.5% 17.7% -0.7%Fri 15/May/2020 33,758 456 29,108 29,732 13.5% 15.1% -2.1%Sat 16/May/2020 32,911 451 28,704 28,972 13.6% 15.2% -0.9%

Sun 17/May/2020 32,771 455 28,804 28,623 14.5% 16.1% 0.6% Notes: 1. Available Dispatchable Generation means all generation resources that can be dispatched by Eskom and includes capacity available from all

emergency generation resources.

2. RSA Contracted Load Forecast is the total official day-ahead hourly forecast. Residual Load Forecast excludes the expected generation from renewables.

3. Actual Residual Demand is the aggregated metered hourly sent-out generation and imports from dispatchable resources, and includes demand reductions. The Actual RSA Contracted Demand includes renewable generation.

4. Net Maximum Dispatchable Capacity (including imports and emergency generation resources) = 48 522 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units).

5. These figures do not include any demand side products.

6. The peak hours for the residual demand can differ from that of the RSA contracted demand, depending on renewable generation.

Page 2: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w20 · Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit 2015 86,436

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 2 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Sent Out 3,808 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -12.78 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.58 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 86,436 229,552 GWh2016 85,146 226,721 GWh2017 83,643 225,203 GWh2018 82,951 224,202 GWh2019 81,787 219,563 GWh

2020 (YTD) 75,289 GWh

Annual Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 3,810 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -12.86 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.29 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 20 : Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 87,304 231,154 GWh2016 85,185 226,808 GWh2017 83,643 225,248 GWh2018 83,003 224,594 GWh2019 82,462 220,924 GWh

2020 (YTD) 76,149 GWh

Annual Residual Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Energy Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Energy Demand 4,000 GWhWeek-on-Week Growth -12.50 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -8.00 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 20 : RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit2015 90,157 239,545 GWh2016 89,116 238,069 GWh2017 87,704 235,426 GWh2018 86,961 235,482 GWh2019 86,754 232,511 GWh

2020 (YTD) 80,366 GWh

Annual RSA Contracted Energy Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Page 3: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w20 · Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit 2015 86,436

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 3 of 5

Week-on-Week Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 28,891 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -9.88 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -7.18 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Tue 28-Jul-2015 33,343 MW2016 Thu 04-Aug-2016 34,181 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,457 MW2018 Mon 16-Jul-2018 34,256 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,066 MW

2020 (YTD) Tue 17-Mar-2020 29,759 MW

Annual Dispatchable Generation Peak Demand Statistics

Week-on-Week Residual Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 29,363 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -10.03 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -6.79 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 20 : Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,145 MW2016 Thu 07-Jul-2016 34,488 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,517 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 34,907 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 33,746 MW

2020 (YTD) Thu 12-Mar-2020 30,568 MW

Annual Residual Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Week-on-Week RSA Contracted Peak Demand [2020 weeks compared to similar 2019 weeks]

Peak Demand 30,139 MWWeek-on-Week Growth -9.79 %

Year-on-Year Growth (Year-to-Date) Annual -5.24 %Note:2020 Weeks are compared to similar weeks in 2019.(2020 week 1 ~ 2019 week 1)

Week 20 : RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Year Peak Date Annual Peak Unit2015 Thu 11-Jun-2015 34,499 MW2016 Mon 30-May-2016 34,913 MW2017 Tue 30-May-2017 35,769 MW2018 Tue 29-May-2018 35,345 MW2019 Thu 30-May-2019 34,510 MW

2020 (YTD) Thu 12-Mar-2020 31,660 MW

Annual RSA Contracted Peak Demand Statistics (Incl IOS)

Page 4: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w20 · Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit 2015 86,436

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 4 of 5

Risk Level Description

Green Adequate Generation to meet Demand and Reserves.Yellow < 1 000MW Possibly short to meet Reserves

Orange 1 001MW – 2 000MW Definitively short to meet Reserves and possibly Demand

Red > 2 001MW Short to meet Demand and Reserves

MW MW MW MW MW MW MW MWWeek Start Week RSA

Contracted Forecast

Residual Forecast

Available Dispatchable

Capacity

Available Capacity (Less

OR and UA)

Planned Maintenance

Unplanned Outage

Assumption (UA)

Planned Risk Level

(-13200 MW)

Likely Risk Senario

(-15200 MW)18-May-20 21 30953 29790 42623 29423 5899 11000 -367 -236725-May-20 22 30894 30010 43934 30734 4588 11000 724 -127601-Jun-20 23 30978 29929 44267 31067 4255 11000 1138 -86208-Jun-20 24 31026 29976 43394 30194 5128 11000 217 -178315-Jun-20 25 30836 29787 43467 30267 5055 11000 480 -152022-Jun-20 26 31368 30319 43652 30452 4870 11000 132 -186829-Jun-20 27 31679 30630 44367 31167 4155 11000 536 -146406-Jul-20 28 31674 30638 43698 30498 4824 11000 -140 -214013-Jul-20 29 31957 30921 43820 30620 4702 11000 -301 -230120-Jul-20 30 31911 30875 43897 30697 4625 11000 -178 -217827-Jul-20 31 31911 30874 43720 30520 4802 11000 -355 -235503-Aug-20 32 32169 31027 44719 31519 3803 11000 491 -150910-Aug-20 33 31341 30199 44084 30884 4438 11000 685 -131517-Aug-20 34 32552 31410 43514 30314 5008 11000 -1097 -3097

Weekly Generation Availability

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 YTD 2019

Energy Availability Factor (Eskom EAF) 62.44 63.61 62.62 62.81 61.50 64.23 65.12 59.42 62.95 66.73 67.83 65.87 71.47 70.90 63.74 66.93

Planned Outage Factor 11.20 8.70 8.96 7.66 9.78 8.36 10.37 22.42 18.27 13.69 13.93 9.65 5.42 5.17 10.21 9.94

Unplanned Outage Factor 25.53 26.79 27.35 28.21 27.28 26.18 23.21 16.85 17.68 18.33 16.36 20.94 19.25 19.65 24.21 21.57

Other Outage Factor 0.83 0.90 1.07 1.32 1.44 1.23 1.30 1.31 1.10 1.25 1.88 3.54 3.86 4.28 1.84 1.56

Criterion measured in percentageWeek Annual (Jan - Dec)

EAF: Ratio of the available energy generation over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. Outage Factors: Ratio of energy losses over a given time period to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period. YTD: Year-to-Date (01 January of current year to current week) Three Month Outlook This is the forecast demand vs. available generating capacity for each week for 3 months ahead. Colour codes ranging from Green (no shortage) to Red (worst case) are used to indicate the absence or presence of a capacity constraint.

Notes - Assumptions critical: The maintenance plan included in these assumptions includes a base scenario of outages (planned risk level). As there is opportunity for further outages, these will be included. This “likely risk scenario” includes an additional 2000 MW of outages on the base plan. The expected imports at Apollo is included. Avon and Dedisa is also included. The forecast used is the latest operational weekly residual peak forecast, which excludes the expected renewable generation. Operating Reserve (OR) from Generation: 2 200 MW Unplanned Outage Assumption (UA): 11 000 MW Reserves: OR + UA = 13 200 MW Eskom Installed Capacity: 47 517 MW (Incl. non-comm. Kusile units). Installed Dispatchable Capacity: 48 522 MW (Incl. Avon and Dedisa). Key:

Medium Term Peak Demand/Capacity Forecast Please go to the link below for the Medium-term System Adequacy Outlook - 2020 to 2024. Download the Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook 2020 to 2024 (Published 30 October 2019).

Page 5: Weekly System Status Report 2020 w20 · Week 20 : Dispatchable Generation Energy Sent Out Statistics Year 01 Jan to 17 May Energy Annual Energy (01 Jan to 31 Dec) Unit 2015 86,436

Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd Reg No 2002/015527/30 Page 5 of 5

500.01,889.22,079.84,490.7

Current Installed Capacity (MW)CSPPV

Wind (Eskom+IPP)Total (Incl other REs)

Renewable Energy Statistics Note: Times are expressed as hour beginning

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 502.1 1,556.0 1,902.3 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 200.9 1,350.5 1,229.8 2,576.3

Max Date 11-Aug-2016 14:00 16-Dec-2016 12:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00 23-Dec-2016 13:00

Maximum 302.0 1,432.5 1,708.2 3,142.7

Max Date 07-Nov-2017 10:00 27-Oct-2017 12:00 25-Dec-2017 18:00 13-Dec-2017 13:00

Maximum 399.7 1,392.1 1,902.3 3,298.9

Max Date 04-Dec-2018 16:00 03-Oct-2018 12:00 02-Oct-2018 16:00 28-Sep-2018 11:00

Maximum 502.1 1,375.6 1,872.0 3,530.6

Max Date 24-Sep-2019 11:00 19-Jan-2019 12:00 14-Dec-2019 15:00 27-Oct-2019 13:00

Maximum 500.2 1,556.0 1,744.1 3,406.1

Max Date 27-Jan-2020 14:00 07-Apr-2020 12:00 06-Apr-2020 15:00 06-Apr-2020 13:00

Maximum Contribution (MW) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Cal Year Indicator CSP PV Wind (Eskom+IPP) Total (Incl other REs)

Annual Energy Contribution (MWh) - based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

Maximum

Annual

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

6,951,2612016Total

Energy529,522 2,630,141 3,730,771

2017Total

Energy687,703 3,324,857 5,081,023 9,198,632

10,887,9022018Total

Energy1,031,288 3,282,124 6,467,095

2019Total

Energy1,557,151 3,324,989 6,624,642 11,586,945

4,469,7572020Total

Energy609,946 1,466,423 2,355,729

Cal Year Indicator Total (Incl other REs)

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 828

Max Date 30-Aug-2016 to 31-Aug-2016

Maximum 1,038

Max Date 19-Jun-2017 to 20-Jun-2017

Maximum 1,336

Max Date 01-Sep-2018 to 02-Sep-2018

Maximum 1,464

Max Date 05-Jul-2019 to 06-Jul-2019

Maximum 1,052

Max Date 26-Jan-2020 to 27-Jan-2020

Maximum Difference between Consecutive Evening Peaks (MW) -

based on System Operator data (subject to metering verification)

All Time

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020