welcome 2020 mid-year update · 7/29/2020 · global central banks response to covid-19 central...
TRANSCRIPT
2020 Mid-Year Update
Quarterly Webinar
WELCOME
JULY 29, 2020
David BaskinPresident and Founder, Baskin Wealth Management (BWM), Chair, RPB Investment Committee
TODAY’S GUEST SPEAKERS
Ross Bremen, CFAPartner, NEPC, RPB’s outside investment advisory firm
Michael KimmelChief Executive Officer, RPB
G. Leonard TeitelbaumChair, Board of Trustees, RPB
Stephanie BergerDirector of Marketing and Communications, RPB
Opening Remarks
2Q 2020 Market Recap and Plan Update
Second Half 2020 Outlook
Managing Investment Risk
Q&A
AGENDA
OPENING REMARKS
Q2 2020 MARKETS AND PLAN PERFORMANCE
Q2 2020 Market and Economic OverviewCovid-19 is the dominant force driving market and economic outcomes. While the market is optimistic about a vaccine, some states paused reopening as cases rise.An amplified worldwide wealth divide is likely, given the economic and labormarket disruptions caused by the virus. Globally, significant monetary and fiscal stimulus is being used to lessen the virus’s overall economic impact (will vary based on geography and industry sector).
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Jan-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20
Thou
sand
s of C
ases
Weekly new cases of Covid-19United StatesEuropean Union
Global Central Banks Response to Covid-19
CENTRALBANKS
CURRENTRATE INFLATION NOTES FROM THE QUARTER
FederalReserve
0.00% -0.25%
0.2%The Fed provided more liquidity to small businesses and municipalities and expanded quantitative easing to $7 trillion.
EuropeanCentralBank
0.0% 0.1%The ECB maintained current benchmark rates and expanded QE to roughly €1.35 trillion.
Bank of Japan -0.10% 0.0%The BoJ plans to expand QE to ¥213 trillion.
*Quantitative Easing – a monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to increase the money supply and encourage lending and investment.
Global central banks expanded QE* to stabilize the economic pressurescaused by the virus.
US Response to Covid-19Significant monetary and fiscal stimulus used to support consumers, businesses, and state/local governments, including the CARES Act and lending programs.
US GOVERNMENT
• Emergency Coronavirus Response Bill
• Families First Coronavirus Act
• CARES Act
*Partially funded by CARES Act
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
• Interest rate cuts • Secondary Market Corporate Credit facility (SMCCF)*
• Commercial Paper Funding facility (CPFF) • Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF)*
• Primary Dealer Credit facility (PDCF) • Paycheck Protection Program (PPPLF)
• Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) • Main Street Lending Program*
• Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF)* • Municipal Liquidity Facility*
Q2 2020 Market and Economic OverviewEQUITY FIXED INCOME REAL ASSETS
S&P500
MSCIEAFE
MSCIEM
USAgg. High Yield Dollar
EMD Oil Gold REITS
20.5% 14.9% 18.1% 2.9% 10.2% 12.3% 91.5% 12.9% 14.1%
Global equities rebounded in Q2, with the US leading the way, as investors searched for yield amid central bank intervention and lower interest rates.
The Federal Reserve remained committed to lower interest rates and ensuring there is adequate liquidity; no signs of inflation for now.
Higher quality fixed income performance improved reflecting optimism in the equity markets.
Real assets rebounded with higher oil prices and the economy starting to reopen.
Intensified US-China tensions may impact nearer-term trade resolution.
Q2 Fixed Income DetailsInvestment grade and high yield bond performance improved; with corporate bonds rebounding from their March lows.However, investment managers remain cautious about overall corporate performance.The Fed provided additional liquidity to small businesses and municipalities and expanded bond purchases.
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
BC TIPS Global Agg Core Bonds BC Short TIPS BC LongTreasury
BC MBS BC Treasury BC ShortTreasury
BC TreasurySTRIPS 20-30
QTD Fixed Income Index Returns
BC = Barclays Capital
Q2 Equities DetailsValue stocks continue to trade lower compared to growth stocks
RUSSELL 3000 QTD SECTOR RETURNS
QTD(April – June)
YTD(January – June)
Technology 31.2% 15.7%
Health Care 16.9% 2.1%
Consumer Discretionary 30.9% 4.2%
Consumer Staples 9.3% -6.9%
Energy 33.2% -35.1%
Materials & Processing 27.0% -8.4%
Producer Durables 18.3% -14.5%
Financial Services 16.1% -16.8%
Utilities 3.8% -11.5%
June YTD 2020 Asset Quilt – Diversification Matters
update
Tier 1 Investment Returns – Net of Fees Through June 30, 2020
-7.6%
0.5%
6.1%7.5%
-7.1%
1.2%
6.1%
8.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
YTD One Year Five Year Inception to Date
Capital Appreciation MSCI ACWI IMI Net USD
Capital Appreciation Fund
Tier 1 Investment Returns – Net of Fees Through June 30, 2020
-2.5%
3.6%
5.5% 5.4%
-0.8%
5.2%
6.0%5.6%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
YTD One Year Five Year Inception to Date
Appreciation & Income 55% MSCI ACWI IMI(Net)/45% BLM BC US Agg Blend
Appreciation & Income Fund
Tier 1 Investment Returns – Net of Fees Through June 30, 2020
3.1%
6.7%
4.1%
2.8%
6.1%
8.7%
4.9%
2.6%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
YTD One Year Five Year Inception to Date
Income Focused Fund Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Fund
Income Focused Fund
Lower is less riskySince inception: January 1, 2013 through June 30, 2020
*50/50 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg through March 31, 2015; 60/40 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays Global Agg through September 30, 2016; 60/40 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg through September 30, 2017; 55/45 MSCI ACWI (IMI)/Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Agg thereafter.**Barclays Global Aggregate January 1, 2013 through September 30, 2016, Barclays US Aggregate thereafter.
Tier 1 Volatility – Standard Deviation
12.39%13.21%
8.13% 7.78%
3.56% 3.93%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
CapitalAppreciation
Fund
MSCI ACWIIMI Net USD
Appreciationand Income
Fund
55% MSCIACWI
IMI(Net)/45%BLM BC USAgg Blend
IncomeFocused Fund
BloombergBarclays USAggregate
Fund
Vanguard Index Funds and RPB Capital Preservation FundJanuary 1, 2020 through June 30, 2020
Tier 2 Investment Returns – Net of Fees
-3.0% -3.1%
-11.3%-11.4% -10.7%-11.3%-9.6% -9.8%
-14.0%-13.8%
6.4% 6.1%
1.9% 2.2%4.1% 4.0%
1.0% 0.5%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Vangu
ard In
stl In
dex Instl
Plus (V
IIX)
S&P 500
Vangu
ard Sm
all Cap
Index
Fund I
nstl Sh
ares (V
SCIX)
CRSP US S
mall Cap
TR USD
Vangu
ard Deve
loped M
kts Id
x Fund I
nstl Sh
ares
FTSE
Develop
ed All C
ap ex
-U.S.
Index N
et
Vangu
ard EM M
kts St
ock Index F
und Instl
…
FTSE
EM M
kts All C
ap Chin
a A In
clusio
n Ind
ex
Vangu
ard Real
Estate In
dex Fund In
stl Sh
ares…
Vangu
ard Sp
liced R
eal Esta
te Index
(Net)
Vangu
ard Tota
l Bond
Index
Fund I
nstl Sh
ares (V
BTIX)
BBgBarc
US Aggre
gate TR
Vangu
ard ST
Infla
tion-Protecte
d Index I
nsecurit
ies…
BBgBarc
US TIPS
1-5 Yr
TR
Vangu
ard Sh
ort-Term
Bond Index F
und Instl
Share
s…
BBgBarc
US Gov/C
redit F loa
t Adj. 1
-5 Year
Capita
l Preserva
tion Fu
nd
FTSE
T-Bill 3
Mon
ths TR
Tier 3 Investment Returns – Net of Fees Through June 30, 2020
Reform Jewish Values Fund
-4.4%
4.6% 4.6%
-6.3%
2.1%3.1%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
YTD One Year Inception to Date
Reform JVI Fund MSCI ACWI
2020 SECOND HALF OUTLOOK
Key Themes Affecting Global Markets
Virus trajectory and permanent interventions are the dominant factors.
Dominant
Emerging
Neutral
Fading
Dormant
Change in Status: —
This theme’s influence will likely increase as countries digest
lasting impacts of the pandemic. The world will likely face an amplified wealth divide given economic
and labor market disruptions. Backlash may also continue as countries reassess supply chains.
Change in Status: —
US-China tensions intensified after China’s approval of the Hong
Kong national security law ending “one country,
two systems.” The question of Hong Kong and other geo-political
tensions are likely to be at the forefront of
political agendas in the US and China.
Change in Status: —
Uncertainty about the
path of the virus and the timing of a global
economic recovery remains high.
The duration of social distancing policies is a
key unknown as increased COVID-19 testing is needed to
define an exposure baseline.
Virus Trajectory
Change in Status: ↑
Globally, monetary and fiscal stimulus aimed at lessening the virus’s
economic impact. The
Fed created liquidity and lending facilities to support corporations and state and local
municipalities.
Recent interventions narrowed yield spreads across Investment Grade and High Yield bonds.
Congress also passed
relief package.
Permanent Interventions
Globalization Backlash
China Transitions
Elevated Permanent InterventionsSustains positive sentiment for risk assets and boosts market return outlook, despite economic challenges.Drives interest rates lower and creates high P/E multiples, as a result, high valuations may be exaggerated.
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Fed Fiscal
US Estimated Government Interventions (% of GDP)
Quantitative Easing (Initial, now unlimited) Main St (MSNLF, MSELF)PMCCF/SMCCF MLFTALF CARES ActFamilies First Act CPRSA Act
Source: NEPC, Federal Reserve
Possible Recovery Paths
W Shape (1980’s Recession) L Shape (Late 1980’s Japan Asset Bubble)
U Shape (1973-1975 Recession)V Shape (1953 Recession)
Avg GDP Growth
1950-2000
Avg GDP Growth
1950-2000
Avg GDP Growth
1947-1997
Avg GDP Growth
1950-2000
Source: Bureau of Economic AnalysisPercent Change of Real GDP from Preceding Period
Percent Change of Real GDP from Preceding Period
US Business Cycle Dynamics
Covid-19 pushed US from extended economic expansion into recession. Where do we go from here?
UNPRECEDENTED TIMES OR RETURN TO BUSINESS AS USUAL?
2020 Outlook Summary
The path of the pandemic is the primary issue
Volatility will continue, despite encouraging performance
Low interest rates are here to stay
Wealth divide may impact voter turnout in November
Regarding the election: • Political events can fuel short-term market volatility, but market
fundamentals ultimately shape investment returns
• Control of the Senate and House of Representatives can be as—if not more—influential on the economy and markets
WHAT CAN YOU DO?
Managing Investment Risk During Uncertainty
How much volatility can I emotionally tolerate in exchange for the potential to grow my money over the long term and achieve my investing goals?
Managing Investment Risk During Uncertainty
1 MindsetDisciplined, long-term approach; emotional decisions are rarely good decisions
2 Plan Update your retirement investment plan annually
3Asset AllocationManage the proportions of asset classes like stocks and bonds in your portfolio to manage your long-term investment risk
4 Rebalance Realign your portfolio to maintain your long-term goals
5
Time Horizon• Career building: Focus on growth; avoiding risk may impact achieving your
goals• Near or in retirement: Focus on income and preserving spending power; less
time to recover from down markets
6 PrepareHave 3 – 6 months of expenses in emergency savings
Fidelity ResourcesFidelity Retirement Planners 800-642-7131NetBenefits:
• Track your asset allocation: “Summary Screen”
• Rebalance: “Make Multiple Exchanges”
• Planning and Guidance Center
• Library (calculators/tools, articles, videos)
Planning & Guidance Center
Get a customized retirement plan
Plan for other life events
Library – Calculators & Tools
Full View®
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• Secure function through NetBenefits
CARES Act Relief
• Special distributions up to $100K; no tax penalty if under 59.5
• Temporary hiatus on loan payments
• Loans up to $100K or 100% of your balance
• No 2020 RMD
• Contact Fidelity Service Center800-343-0860
PROVISIONS:*
*Must meet CARES Act qualifications for loan and withdrawal provisions
RPB + Fidelity
• Robert PerryDirector of Participant and Employer Services646-884-9890
• Fidelity Retirement Planners 800-642-7131
• Fidelity Service Center 800-343-0860
WE’RE HERE TO HELP
Q & A
APPENDIX
Federal Reserve Bank Stimulus Programs
PROGRAM PURPOSE
• Interest rate cuts Reduce borrowing costs, stimulate growth
• Commercial Paper Funding facility (CPFF) Supports consumer / business credit needs
• Primary Dealer Credit facility (PDCF) Supports consumer / business credit needs
• Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (MMLF) Provides liquidity, maintains financial stability
• Primary Market Corporate Credit Facility (PMCCF) Supports large employers credit needs
• Secondary Market Corporate Credit facility (SMCCF) Supports large employers credit needs
• Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) Supports consumer credit lending
• Paycheck Protection Program (PPPLF) Helps small business with payroll/expense needs
• Main Street Lending program Provides loans for small and mid-sized firms and nonprofits
• Municipal Liquidity Facility Supports state and local governments cash flow needs
• Secondary Market Corporate Credit facility (SMCCF) Supports large employers credit needs
Economic Recovery Paths
SHAPE RECOVERY PATH
• V shaped recovery Sharp but brief economic decline followed by a strong recovery
• W shaped recovery Economy falls into recession, recovers with short period of growth; falls back into recession before recovering
• U shaped recovery Less-clearly defined economic trough; GDP may shrink for several quarters, and slowly return to trend growth
• L shaped recovery Severe recession and no return to trend line growth for several years