welcome bienvenue herzlich willkommen benvenuti
TRANSCRIPT
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WELCOME BIENVENUE HERZLICH WILLKOMMEN BENVENUTI 8TH COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE ZURICH, 12 SEPTEMBER 2019
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WELCOME PIERRE-YANN BLANCHANDIN, COUNTRY MANAGER, COFACE SWITZERLAND 8TH COFACE COUNTRY RISK CONFERENCE ZURICH, 12 SEPTEMBER 2019
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COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 3
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• 4th text level
UNIQUE GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE ENHANCED INFORMATION CENTERS (EIC)
Coface's data and information sources as well as our risk assessment know-how are highly valuable.
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COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 4
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USING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE TO BRING SALVADOR DALI BACK TO LIVE WHAT IS REAL?
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COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 5
AGENDA: «INTEGRITY OF INFORMATION IN THE AGE OF FAKE NEWS»
13:30 Welcome Coffee 14:00 Official Welcome Pierre-Yann Blanchandin, Country Manager, Coface Switzerland Introduction Kaspar Loeb, Senior Consultant cR-Kommunikation 14:15 Economic Outlook – Economic Outlook & Reliable data are crucial for economic analyses Julien Marcilly, Group Chief Economist, Coface 14:45 Integrity of information and personal integrity Olivier Bovet, State Secretariat for Economic Affairs, SECO 15:05 Coffee break & Networking
15:35 Trusted media in the age of fake news Andreas Schaffner, Editor-in-Chief, CNN Money 15:55 How people deal with fake news Bruno Wüest, Forschungstelle sotomo 16:15 Panel discussion Julien Marcilly, Coface / Olivier Bovet, SECO / Andreas Schaffner, CNN Money / Bruno Wüest, Forschungstelle sotomo 16:45 Closing remarks Pierre-Yann Blanchandin, Country Manager, Coface Switzerland 16:50 Apéro & Networking
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2020 COUNTRY AND SECTOR RISK OUTLOOK
JULIEN MARCILLY CHIEF ECONOMIST
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THE NEW NORMAL OF GLOBAL TRADE
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 8
Global trade: Coface’s forecast (quarter on quarter % change, source: CPB)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
Q1
2008
Q3
2008
Q1
2009
Q3
2009
Q1
2010
Q3
2010
Q1
2011
Q3
2011
Q1
2012
Q3
2012
Q1
2013
Q3
2013
Q1
2014
Q3
2014
Q1
2015
Q3
2015
Q1
2016
Q3
2016
Q1
2017
Q3
2017
Q1
2018
Q3
2018
Q1
2019
Q3
2019
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THE U.S. VERSUS CHINA:
Exchange rate policy
Trade policy
Fiscal policy (corporate taxes)
Geopolitical and strategic oppositions
Strong economic and financial links
Sanctions
FROM GEOPOLITICAL RISKS TO ECONOMIC POLICIES
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CHINA IS CATCHING UP, RAISING CONCERNS IN THE WEST
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 10
MOST R&D HAS CONCENTRATED ON THE ICT SECTOR
0.3%
10%10%12%
18%
14%
31%
27%
40%
37%
2006 2018
China Rest of the world Japan European Union USA
Share of global private R&D expenditure
Source: World Bank and Coface
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ASIA: CORFACE CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 11
SCOPE
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CHINA: COFACE CORPORATE PAYMENT SURVEY
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 12
LONGER THAN 6 MONTHS PAYMENT DELAYS AS A % TURNOVER So
urce
: Cofa
ce C
hina P
ayme
nt Su
rvey
2019
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US-CHINA TRADE WAR:
13
PAY ATTENTION TO INDIRECT EFFECTS ON EUROPEAN BUSINESSES Elasticity of Domestic Value Added (DVA) Exports
of Country X in relation to US tariffs on EU 15, the DVA receiver
Source: Coface
-0,4-0,7
-4,3
-3,4
-1,2
-5
-4,5
-4
-3,5
-3
-2,5
-2
-1,5
-1
-0,5
0
0,5
Tota
l
Man
ufac
turin
g
Mac
hine
ry
Tran
spor
t equ
ip.
Che
mic
als
Min
ing
Woo
d, p
aper
Elec
tron
ical
equ
ip.
Food
pro
duct
s
Met
als
Text
ile
Agr
icul
ture
Statistically not significant Statistically significant (at 5%)
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COFACE SECTOR RISK ASSESSMENTS – WESTERN EUROPE
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 14
Sector Western Europe Austria France Germany Italy Netherlands
(the) Spain Switzerland United Kingdom
Agri-food
Automotive
Chemical
Construction
Energy
ICT
Metals
Paper
Pharmaceutical
Retail Textile-Clothing
Transport
Wood
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MEASUREMENT VERSUS PERCEPTION POLITICAL RISK IN EUROPE:
Group Economic Research Department 15
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COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 16
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
10-06
10-07
10-08
10-09
10-10
10-11
10-12
10-13
10-14
10-15
10-16
10-17
10-18
EurozoneItalySpainFranceGermanyNetherlands
Source : The Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs European Commission
Eurozone: Business confidence (manufacturing sector)
Eurozone and the UK: GDP (Q2, quarter on quarter % change)
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,2
0,3
0,5
0,5
-0,4 -0,2 0 0,2 0,4 0,6
UK
Germany
Italy
Eurozone
France
Spain
Netherlands
TWO SPEED EUROPE
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CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE:
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 17
EXPOSURE TO AUTO AND GERMANY IS KEY Central and Eastern Europe: Exports
(as a % of total, 2018)
0
10
20
30
40
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Slovakia
Czech Rep.Romania
SloveniaHungary
PolandAustria
Bulgaria
CroatiaLatvia
Estonia Lithuania
Exports to Germany (as a % of total)
Auto Exports (% of total)
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EMERGING MARKETS:
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 18
CAPITAL OUTFLOWS HAVE ABATED, EXCEPT FOR ARGENTINA
-34,9%-9,4%
-7,8%
-6,9%
-6,2%
-5,7%
-3,7%
-3,0%
-2,4%
1,0%
4,8%
5,7%
8,2%
9,9%
-40% -20% 0% 20%
Argentina
Turkey
Korea
Brazil
South Africa
Poland
Chile
India
Mexico
Indonesia
Russia
Thailand
Egypt
Ukraine
Emerging market currencies (% change vs US YTD, Sept. 2, 2019)
Argentina: What is the main problem affecting the country?
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COFACE 2019 POLITICAL RISK INDEX
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 19
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CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT
COFACE, THE MOST AGILE GLOBAL TRADE CREDIT PARTNER IN THE INDUSTRY 20
PHYSICAL RISKS
•Extreme weather events will increase in frequency and/or severity: cyclone, heat wave, wildfire, flood, landslide
•Longer-term shifts in climate patterns: warming, sea level, drought, rainfall
TRANSITION RISKS
•Regulatory development: changing business environment regarding legal framework
•Technological change: adoption of low-emission technologies
•Market risk: shifts in the supply and demand for certain goods, services or raw materials (e.g., plastic products in the chemical sector)
•Reputation risk: changes in consumers' perceptions of an organization's contribution to the transition to a low-carbon economy
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