welcome [s21212c554425f761.jimcontent.com] · of mobility 20 connected and automated mobility...
TRANSCRIPT
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WELCOME To the Busworld Academy & IRU
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›Mr. Jan DemanDirector Busworld Academy
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›BUSWORLD ACADEMY PROGRAMME
KORTRIJK Oct. 19th – 21st 2015
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PROGRAMME MONDAY OCT. 19th
• Mrs Jacqueline Galant, Belgian minister for Mobility & transport
• Mr Ben Weyts,Flemish minister for Mobility
• Mrs Daniela Rosca, Head of unit clean transport & SustainableMobility, DG Move, E.C.
• Frost & Sullivan : market analysis on new energy vehicles
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PROGRAMME MONDAY OCT. 19th
High level Debate for Bus- and Coach Operators
Chaired by IRU, Mr Remi Lebeda
With : Roger Kesteloot, CEO, De LijnVictor Parra, president United Motorcoach AssociationIngrid Nuelant, CEO, Keolis BelgiumPaul Cremers, Board, Global Pasenger NetworkPrasanna Patwardhan, Managing Director, Purple Mobility Solution IndiaMark D’Eigens, CEO, MandelcarPeter Pantusso, President American Bus Association
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PROGRAMME MONDAY OCT. 19th
Special Intrest Sessions : BOX 3
2 pm : WINTEX : the use of smart textiles in automotiveChaired by Ghent University and Ghent University College
3.30 pm AUTOMATION in Passenger TransportChaired by POLIS, European network for cities and regions
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PROGRAMME Tuesday OCT. 20th
Introductions by
• Mr Vincent van Quickenborne, mayor of Kortrijk
• Mr Carl Decaluwé, Governor of the province of West Flanders
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PROGRAMME Tuesday OCT. 20th
Keynotes by
• Element Energy : Mr Alex Stewart, director : “Future trends in Innovative Technologies in the Bus sector”
• FCH-JU : Mr Carlos Navas, Project Manager“Future Role for fuell cells & hydrogen in passenger transport”
• UITP , Mr Umberto Guida, Director European Projects“Executive sumarys on 3iBS, ZeEUS, EBSF2”
• VITO, Mr Carlo Mol, Belgian representative in the International Energy Agency“Challenges for the grid”
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PROGRAMME Tuesday OCT. 20th
10.30 am High level Debate for ManufacturersChaired by Busworld Academy : Mr Doug Jack
WithVOLVO : Mrs Jessica Sandström, Sr Vice President City MobilitySOLARIS : Mr Andreas Strecker, CEOVAN HOOL, Mr Filip Van Hool, CEOBYD : Mr Isbrand Ho, General ManagerVDL : Mr Peter Wouters, Plant Manager RoeselareIVECO : Mr Philippe Grand, Institutional Relations ManagerDAIMLER : Mr Thomas Tonger, Head of Product Planning&ManagementSCANIA : Mr Urban Löfvenberg, Product Manager Sustainable Solutions
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PROGRAMME Tuesday OCT. 20th
1.30 pm High level Debate for AuthoritiesChaired by POLIS, Mrs Karen Vancluysen
WithEuropean CommissionFlanders Region : Flemish minister for Mobility : head of CabinetTransport for LondonBelgian Road Safety InstituteMetropolitan Transport System San DiegoTransport for Great ManchesterTisseo Toulouse
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PROGRAMME Tuesday OCT. 20th
Special Interest Session : Box 3 2 pm
Intelligent Transport SystemsChaired by ERTICO, Mr Rasmus Lindholm
With : XEROX, CUBIC, National Mobile Payment, Satelite Applications Catapult, EVOPRO Group, Ertico
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PROGRAMME Tuesday OCT. 20th
Special Interest Session 3.30 pm
Fire Safety in Buses with New Energy CariersChaired by SP – Techniocal Institure of Sweden, Mr. Michaël Först, Research Manager
With :
American Public Transport Association, CTIFSPMetropolitan transport system San Diego
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Wednesday Oct. 21st
9.30 am Entrance NORTHVisit to the inductive fastcharging station in Bruges -Transfer with a hydrogen bus
Continious demonstrations and test drives
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›Mr.Redgy DeschachtPresident BAAV
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›Mr. Stefan MeerssemanPresident Busworld Academy
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›Mr. Ben WeytsFlemish Minister for Mobility
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›Mr. Bart TommeleinSecretary of State
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›New energy vehiclesRole of buses in the evolving mobility ecosystemBy Mr. Ananth Srinivasan, Consultant Automotive, Frost & Sullivan
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Agenda – Our 15’ minute journey
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Top Transformational Shifts and Urban transportation
New energy buses - Why, What and Where?
Investments, examples and a peek into the future
"A Developed Country is not a place where poor have cars. It's where the rich use Public Transportation"
Enrique Peñalosa, Mayor of Bagota, Colombia
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Top Transformational Shifts that will shape the Future of Mobility
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Connected and Automated Mobility
Health Wellness and Well-being
Women Empowerment
Growth in high Speed Rail and Public transport spending
New Business Models
Convergence in corporate mobility
Mobility integration City as a customer
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In the business of transportation or integrated mobility?
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InstantPlanned
Higher price per KM
Lower price per KM
How can transportation companies evolve as “integrated mobility providers” ?
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisNews source: The Atlantic
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Solutions for the ecosystem, not for a “part” of it
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Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Crowd-sourced bus routes – As close to demand as it can get
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• An initiative by IDA Singapore, started in June 2015
• “Beeline” – a demand driven, shared transit experiment
• Commuters nominate where they need the pick-up and drop
• Depending on the voice of commuters, the routes are decided
• Priced similar to “premium-bus services” in the city ( ~$4/ trip)
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysisNews source: Financial times
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Investments, Operational deficits and alternate funding channels
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• The equation is simple:
Number of people
transported > number of vehicle transportedand by a large factor
• Currently at an EEA level, ~1% of the GDP goes towards investments transport infrastructure
• PPP , fare economics, land value capture in financing model
EUR 315 billion planned as per the Juncker plan over next three years
Covering investments and operational deficit will necessitate alternate revenue channels
Connecting Europe facility plan released EUR 13.1 billion funding for investment in transport infrastructure
Source: European Commission, UITP, Frost & Sullivan
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Electro-mobility and buses – the need?
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Ca
r (Ga
solin
e)
Car (
Dies
el)
Car (
Elec
tric
)
Scoo
ter (
Two-
Stro
ke)
Scoo
ter (
Four
stro
ke)
Min
ibus
(Die
sel)
Bus (
Dies
el)
Bus (
Nat
ural
Gas
)
Bus (
Elec
tric
)
Rail
Tran
sit
Wal
king
/ Cyc
ling
GHG
em
issio
n in
gm
per
pas
seng
er k
m
80 gm
GHG Emissions in Transportation, Global, 2014
Source: IPCC, Frost & Sullivan analysis
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The global picture – CAGR of 8.4%
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S.A.3091340765
N.A.5068 6675
W.E1112914806
China 50206 63172
India 19993 32765
Russia1065016187
Other markets3701759945
~164K in 2014
~234K in 2020
Snapshot of Global Heavy-duty Transit Bus Market, 2014 and 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
LEGEND: Normal font = 2014 valuesBOLD font = respective 2020 values
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The green push – From 1 in 8 to 1 in 4
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S.A.~350 (1%)~4800 (12%)
N.A.~1200 (24%) ~2450 (36%)
W.E~500 (5%)~4500 (30%)
China ~17000 (34%) ~45800 (72%)
India -~2100 (6%)
Russia~50 (0.5%)~800 (6%)
Other markets~1700 (5%)~4900 (8%)
~21K in 2014
~66K in 2020
Snapshot of Global Hybrid and Electric HD Transit Bus Market, 2014 and 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
LEGEND: Normal font = 2014 valuesBOLD font = respective 2020 value% = share of H+E in total market
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Western Europe – A surge in hybrid electric of ~25%
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Diesel Hybrid ElectricNatural Gas Hybrid+Electric
~500
~4500
~30%
~25%2014
2020
~27002017
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Parallel configuration gains market adoption
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48,5%
49,7%
1,8%Series Parallel Series-Parallel
31,1%
58,6%
10,3%
Series Parallel Series-Parallel
2012 2020
• Market preference for parallel and series parallel to rise
• Cost of technology, push towards plug-ins driving the trend
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Western Europe – Parallel hybrid, full electric as preferred options
RegionNew Energy Powertrains
Parallel Hybrid Series Hybrid Series-Parallel Hybrid Pure Electric
SouthAmericaWestern EuropeNorth
America
China
India
Russia
Other markets
Strong Trend Towards 2020
Moderate Trend Towards 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Western Europe – Li-Ion batteries followed by UCs
RegionEnergy Storage technologies
Ni-Mh Batteries Li-ion Batteries Ultra-capacitors (UCs) UC Hybrid
SouthAmericaWestern EuropeNorth
America
China
India
Russia
Other markets
Strong Trend Towards 2020
Moderate Trend Towards 2020
Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis
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Western Europe – OEM and hybrid module landscape
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Key OEMs in the market, 2014
Daimler
IVECO
Scania
Solaris
MAN
Volvo
Others
Top 3 = 50% Top 6 = 80%
Key hybrid module suppliers, 2014
Allison
BAE
Eaton
Siemens
Voith
Vossloh
ZF
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Future of collective mobility – Scenario 2035?
truly Carbon neutral
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Connected
Customized
“Walking is the only form of transportation in which a man proceeds erect - like a man - on his own legs, under his own power. There is immense satisfaction in that.”
Edward Abbey, Postcards from Ed: Dispatches and Salvos from an American Iconoclast
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That is that for today, thank you for your attention
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Ananth Srinivasan Consultant MobilityDirect: +49 69 770 3334Email: [email protected]
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Buses and Coaches in Smart Mobility Plans - 2030HIGH LEVEL DEBATE FOR OPERATORS
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A general vision for our future mobility systems in 2030 and the place of buses and coaches
• Ingrid Nuelant, CEO, Keolis Belgium• Roger Kesteloot, CEO, De Lijn• Peter Pantuso, President & CEO, American Bus
Association
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›Mobility in 2030Ingrid Nuelant – CEO Keolis in Belgium
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Smart urban mobility
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Maturity model(UITP – AD Little)
Source: The Future of Urban Mobility
1. Emerging: Underdeveloped and uncoordinated mobility systems
2. Individual: Private vehicle focus with little synchronisationwith the wider mobility network - limited data collected
3. Public: High share of public transport, walking and cycling with traffic management - data used to enhance integration
4. Networked mobility: Optimised integration of all modes of transport with advanced transport demand and supply measures to reduce share of individual private vehicles - total real time data collection, analysis, management and incidence response
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Transport possibilities offered by Keolis today
95% of Keolis networks in France offer flexible services
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Agile transports
• Transport on demand– Flexible itineraries– And/or flexible schedules– And/or flexible stops– Depending on needs and demands
• Individual transport Soft/low-impact modes of transport and carsharing
– Providing vehicles: bicycle rent and self-service, carsharing
– Support the use of one’s own vehicle: bicycle parking, relay car packs, carpooling, organized hitchhiking
– Pedestrian accompaniment
Regular offer
• Fixed Itinerary• Fixed schedules• Fixed stops• Systematic departure
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An ever-changing context of personal transport
Today’s personal transport context results in:
• The emergence of alternative solutions to autosolism• The increasing development of means of transport “on demand”• The generalization of integrated mobility systems, boosted by digital developments• The generalization of a sharing economy in mobility
Keolis positions itself to continuously bring accessible solutions to daily mobility challenges:
• As a carrier, in line with evolutions in consumption • As a mobility services provider, aligned with technological advancements
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Develop intelligent solutions in a « smart » way
Thinking like a passenger & Sense of Purpose
• This is part of Keolis’ DNA. We place the customer, PTA or passengers, at the heart of our approach
• We innovate, in partnership with PTAs, towards a common goal: increase the use of Public transport and deliver service excellence to passengers.
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Digital solutions by Keolis
New mobility needs for a new passenger experience
Beyond multimodality, need for simplification, innovation and customisation
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« Plan, book, ticket » platform
Keolis develops one unique solution for connected mobility
+
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An end-to-end solution, with all journey-related services on one unique application, available on
all mobile devices.
Open dataReal time information
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« Plan, book, ticket » platform
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Energy
• Use of alternative fuels – Largest fleet of « environmentally friendly » vehicles in Europe – Largest fleet of hybrid vehicles in France – Active participation in experiments: new, fully electric vehicles in Gothenburg – The use of electricity: in Lyon 75% of travelers use electric powered vehicles
• Keolis optimises energy savings => less pollution, less noise, an attractive public transport offer = more liveable cities
* Source : International Energy Agency
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Peak Oil in 2006* > When will the “cheap oil” disappear?
›The Fuzzy Future of MobilityRoger Kesteloot, CEO, De Lijn
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www.districtoffuture.eu
Smart Mobility - Key to Smart Cities
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Smart Mobility - Key to Smart Cities
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“To create a city that is sustainable and offers high standards of living, smarter cities will need to exploit state of the art
green technologies. They will need to connect policies across a wide range of areas, including energy efficiency, urban mobility,
and ICT.”
Eurocities statement on Smart Cities, May 2015
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Smart Mobility – Spatial Planning
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Transport network
Built environment
Landscape
BUreau URbanisme
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Smart Mobility – Spatial Planning
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Transport network
Built environment
Landscape
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Smart mobility – Liveable Cities
• PT’s Unique Selling Proposition– Environmental ?– SPATIAL !
• More public space = more liveable, sustainablecities
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Smart Mobility – The Future
• Smart Mobility = differentiated technologies(hybrid – electric – hydrogen, …)
• Smart Mobility = connected with Smart City networks and grids
• Sustainable energy provision• Open data / Big data
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Smart Mobility – The Future
• Smart Mobility = Fuzzy– Individual vs. Collective ?– Private vs. Public ?
– Shared and Modular !
• Smart Mobility = a matter of governance
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Smart Mobility – The Future
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Vegetal City / TramodulaireConcept & design: Luc Schuiten
ThankYou !
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Future, U.S. Coach OperationsPeter Pantuso, CTISPresident & CEO, American Bus Association
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Perceptions of Buses
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U.S. Today
3,200 Companies
32,000 Coaches
625 Million Passenger Trips (700M Airlines)
Fleet Replacement, 5% Annual
Canada is + 10% of U.S. Business
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U.S. Today
Economic Impact of Group Travel(direct and indirect)
$50 BillionWe have a good story to tell!
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U.S. Today
Challenges– Attack from media, governments, customers– Heavy regulatory burdens, and growing– Ease of access and heavy competition– High cost of operations– Low margins
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U.S. Future
2030 is unpredictable, 2020 is predictable
OPERATOR INNOVATION+TECHNOLOGY + DESIRED TRAVEL OPTIONS
= EASE OF BOOKING AND TRAVEL
= CUSTOMERCENTRIC FOCUS
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U.S. Today and Future
Technology will change the way we do business externally (not just in our operations) and will force operators to be faster, smarter, more creative, more responsive, and be customer service focused, not bus focused!
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RYDE
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What RYDE Does
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Partner with event producers/owners for “long distance” RYDEs• Enhance revenue through greater
geographic reach• Alleviate traffic and parking issues• Leverage PR for event to exhibit
environmental awareness & solution• Enhance overall fan experience• Create RYDE revenue share potential
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Why RYDE Does It
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Getting to Live Events is a Hassle
• Commuter traffic, difficult access• Parking is expensive and congested• Zero tolerance DUI laws• Public transportation options are• often unavailable• Individual rideshare options like
Uber/Lyft not always a viable option• Environmental impact of event• traffic is concerning
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Co-Marketing Examples
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Mumford & Sons Gentlemen of the Road
(4events)Website presence
Backwoods Music Festival Website presence
Desert Daze Newsletter
Creation Fest (5 events) Newsletter
Dancefestopia Website presence
Country Thunder Website presence
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RYDE In The News
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thatDROP.com7.13.15
EDM Nerd7.7.15
Mobility Lab4.14.15
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Wanderu
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Wanderu
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Wanderu
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Wanderu
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Largest ground travel search in North America.
Users:
- 13 million users since launch
- 1.5 million users in October
- 100% growth per quarter
Sales:
- $40 million/year
- 200% growth per quarter
Awards:
- Inc Magazine 30 under 30
- SXSW Most Innovative Technology
- Sir Richard Branson’s XTC - Top 3
- PC Magazine Top Ecommerce Website
Featured in:
Promoting Bus Travel and Growing the Market
Wanderu invests in advertising and marketingpromoting bus travel:
Partners have expanded routes and coverage as a result of demand brought by Wanderu customers.
22% of tickets sold are only possible on Wanderu.com andWanderu apps because of unique technology.
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Buster
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Buster
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BRIDJ
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BRIDJ
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BRIDJ
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Rally Bus
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Rally Bus
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Rally Bus
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U.S. Future
Technology
Brings new business by expanding reach well beyond a given market area
Brand will deminish or be less relevant as price, schedule, amenities, etc. drive customers ..... or the brand is replaced by the booking site brand
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U.S. Future
• High cost of regulation• Higher barriers to entry• High cost of equipment• Slow rate of replacing the fleet• Lack of interest – Next Generation
=
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U.S. Future
More mergers
Fewer Companies – Healthier?
Larger Companies
Same/More Equipment
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U.S. Future – Looks Bright!
2020
1 Billion Passenger Trips
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THANK YOU!
Peter PantusoAmerican Bus AssociationWashington, DC USAO 202.218.7229E [email protected]
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Debate
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Buses and coaches of the future
• Victor Parra, President & CEO, United Motorcoach Association
• Paul Cremers, Global Passenger Network
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Future of the U.S. Private Bus and Motorcoach Industry
Victor S. ParraPresident and Chief Executive Officer, United Motorcoach Association |
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US Motorcoach Market -- Profile
- Seniors: 5- 10 % declining- Students: 45 - 50% increasing- Corporate/Convention: 20% flat- Contract Services (military, contract services,
government, non-profits, etc.): 5-10% declining- Social Events (weddings, parties): 10% growing- Private/Public Partnerships: 5%.. great potential!
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Current state of the industry
Challenging operating environment• Consolidation: mergers and acquisitions• Tougher/unreasonable safety regulations • Government regulations making it difficult for
new entrants• Drop in ridership• Higher equipment and labor costs• Driver shortage…severe!
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Current state of the industry (con’t)
On the positive side…• Improved financial conditions – low
interest rates• Capital investment is up• Sales stronger in past year• Higher level of consumer satisfaction• Younger customer base
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Market Developments
• Improvements in customer experience thanks to power outlets, wifi, and more seat comfort… technology enhancements
• Safety improvements – seat belts, anti-rollover standards, ELDs coming soon, etc
• Grooming future customers with more school group trips
• Infrastructure in desperate need of repair• Overcrowded highways and congested cities
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The future…
• Technology will transform our equipment, the way we utilize our equipment and the way customers access our equipment
• Congested cities/towns will create more demand for group travel and mass transit
• Younger generation will be more accustomed to motorcoach travel than the “baby boomers”
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Future....unknowns
• Equipment costs?• Driver availability?• Fuel costs/supply?• Technology... driverless buses????• Uber...Lift...other????• Infrastructure?• Low cost airlines?
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Overall Assessment
The future of the motorcoach industry, while unknown, looks bright. The question is……what companies/types will be able to survive current market challenges and to capitalize on what will be increased demand for private motorcoach services in the future.
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Everything that is now POSSIBLE was once IMPOSSIBLE…
…author unknown
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Paul Cremers Board member GPN CEO Staf Cars CEO Solmar Tours
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Program
1. Presentation Companies
2. Pros & cons coach travels
3. Future perspective
4. Questions
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1.1 Global Passenger Network
1.2 Presentation Staf Cars N.V.
1.3. Presentation Solmar Tours
1. Presentation Companies
International network of high quality motor coach services
Coach Company
Tour Operator
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1.1 Global Passenger Network An elite association of the best motor coach companies in the world,
founded in 2006 to improve the image of the bus and coach sector as a quality mode of transportation.
High quality motor coach and bus services through one website.
A wide choice of transportation services in vehicles ranging in size from 6 to 77 seats in many countries and continuously growing.
Creative Solutions to meet the specific needs of the customers and special services for MICE planners and tour operators including travel planning and scheduling.
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1.2 STAF CARS N.V.Driving people in all market segments including schools, work traffic, sports associations, VIP’s and tourism
Established in 1952
100 coaches
160 employees of which 140 coach drivers
7.2 million km a year
Transfers people in all market segments including school transport , work traffic , sports clubs , VIP and tourism
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Facts & figures
Average of 100 coachesAverage age of tourism coaches : 1.5 yearsAverage age of school transports : 8 yearsAverage age coaches total : 4.3 years
Total km : 7.200.000 kmDiesel : 2.200.000 literSales coach rental : € 10.900.000
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1.3 Solmar ToursDirect selling tour operator
Founded in 1984
20 employees
80.000 passengers every year
Specialized in coach holidays to Spain and Croatia
Excursion holidays within Europe
Direct sales without intervention of travel agencies
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Situation & transfer point
The office and our transfer point are located in Maarheeze, in the southeast
of the Netherlands, nearby the German and Belgian border.
We can move up to 3000 passengers in one departure or arrival
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2. Pros & cons coach travels
Pros: The greenest vehicle The safest vehicle The most value for money
Cons:- Clients don’t like coaches- Coaches are uncomfortable - It takes to much travel time
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3. Future perspective
It is no different for the economic race .Whether you consider yourself a gazelle or a lion, you simply have to run faster than others to survive!
Each new day in Africa, a gazelle wakes up knowing he must outrun the fastest lion.
At the same time, a lion stirs and stretches, knowing he must outrun the slowest gazelle or starve and die ….
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3. Future perspective
1) “Office” coaches: travel time becomes work time
2) Large bus stations between cities and conurbations
3) Seat comfort and on board multimedia, Wi-Fi, high tech
4) Coaches will be used like taxis
5) Electric coaches
6) Unmanned Intercity coaches
Convert the extra travel time in “life-experience”
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3.1 Office coach
travel time becomes work time …
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3.2 Large bus stations
between cities and conurbations
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3.3 Seat comfort & on board media
2+1 seats, larger seats, better comfort
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3.4 Coaches will be used like taxis
Clients will think and order on the spot
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3.5 Electric coaches
Green solution
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3.6 Unmanned intercity coaches
No more drivers, coaches operated automatically
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4. Questions…
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Debate
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Access of buses and coaches to cities and their infrastructure: today and tomorrow
• Prasanna Patwardhan, Chairman & Managing Director, Prasanna Purple Mobility Solutions
• Mark D’Eigens, President, Flemish Association of Bus & Coach Operators
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Debate
117
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Busworld & IRU
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