welcome to the world of currencies -...
TRANSCRIPT
Welcome to the
world of currencies
What is a currency?
• A generally accepted�medium of exchange for goods and services, issued by a government and circulated within an economy.
World currencies
• Different countries have different currencies.
What is currency exchange rate?
• Each currency of a country is valued with other currency, the net ratio is called exchange rate.
Currency exchange rates
• Each currency exchange rate represents a pair of currency.
• Examples of currency pairs: USD/INR - US Dollar against Indian Rupee
EUR/USD - Euro against US Dollar
EUR/GBP - Euro against British Pound
GBP/INR - British Pound against Indian Rupee
How is currency quoted?
• Each currency is quoted/paired/valued with another currency.
• Quote of USD/INR = 55.60 means for every 1 USD paid, INR 55.60 will be received.
• Quote of EUR/USD = 1.2745 means for every 1 Euro paid, 1.2745 USD will be received.
USD/INR = 55.60
Base currency Quote currency
Understanding appreciation & depreciation of currency
• How valuation of rupee changes?
$`
Valuation changes due to
The value of a currency depends on demand and supply of currency. Demand depends on economic valuations & economic factors.
Economic forces - inflationrate, purchasing power,interest rate
Market forces - supply &demand of dollar & rupeedue to economic factors
Economic forces affecting rupee…
• Macro economic reviews
• Monetary policy
• Banking policies
• Economic data announcements
• Global economic scenario
• Global capital flow
• Performance of equity/financial markets
• Performance of other currencies
• Performance of key commodities affecting trade
• Policy announcements affecting flows – trade or capital
ws
cements
rio
Do we havecontrol onthesefactors???
Impact of economic news on rupee…
News flow Meaning Impact on rupee
Greek crisis Depreciation
Depreciation
Depreciation
Depreciation
Depreciation
Depreciation
Appreciation
Appreciation
Appreciation
Appreciation
Appreciation
Appreciation
Appreciation
Euro crisis
FII outflow
Rise of OIL price
Overseas loan payment
RBI managing strong rupee
FII/FDI inflow in India
Overseas borrowing
Higher bank rates
News: GDP will improve
NRI sending money
Gold rises
RBI managing rupee fall
Outflow of Greek currency & investment in USD.
USD demanded in market against Euro
FII sell rupee & buy USD
Payment in USD against rupee. Corp sell rupee & buy USD
Demands dollars & supply rupee
Inflow by FDI/FII supply of USD & demand of rupee
Demands for dollars by corporate against INR
Demand for dollar against rupee. Outflow of dollar
Investment by FII for bank interest
Foreign investors will bring money to invest
USD flow
Buying gold against USD. Supply of USD.
Higher inflation - Low purchasing power, & demand for more USD, fall of rupee value against USD
How is change in currency rate a financial risk?
USD-INR in last 4 years
USD-INR movement impact…
Do we knowwhat will be USD-INR ratenext???
What is currency risk?
When rise or fall in value of one currency against another currency has direct
or indirect impact on financial statements, it is a currency risk.
When is currency a risk?
• Currency risk occurs when
- transactions undertaken by entity involves international currencies.
- rate of exchange has direct or indirect impact on its financial statements.
• Transactions may be
- receivable or payable fx instruments.
- purchase/sale commitments in fx.
- future transactions in a foreign currency.
- speculative transactions.
Who is affected by currency market?
Corporate, exporters, importers, governments, central & other banks,
financial markets, individuals - travellers, students
How is exchange rate a financial risk?
• Mr. ABC is an exporter and has to receive USD 5 million as payment for his exported
goods next month. If today USD-INR rate is 55.60, Mr. ABC is expecting to receive
INR 27.8 Crs. (5*10^6*55.60 = 27.8 Cr).
• By the time of payment delivery, if USD-INR moves to 57.30, Mr. ABC will receive
INR 28.65 Cr. He will gain additional INR 0.85 Cr.
• In a situation, USD-INR changes to 53.50 at the time of delivery, Mr. ABC will receive
INR 26.75 Cr. A loss of INR 1.05 Cr.
• In above situations, Mr. ABC will hugely gain or lose basis exchange rate
movement in USD-INR, for which he has no control.
How is currency a risk – more examples...
• Mr. XYZ imports goods. He is expecting delivery of his contract next month and has to
pay USD 10 million at the time of goods delivered.
• If today USD-INR rate is 55.60, XYZ has to pay INR 55.60 Cr. (10*10^6*55.60 = 55.6 Cr).
• By the time of payment, if USD-INR moves to 57.30, Mr. XYZ will have to pay INR 57.30
Cr. He will have to pay additional INR 1.70 Cr.
• In a situation, USD-INR changes to 53.50 at the time of delivery, Mr. XYZ will have to pay
INR 53.50 Cr. A gain of INR 2.10 Cr.
• In above situations, Mr. XYZ will gain or lose basis exchange rate movement in
USD-INR, for which he has no control.
Some more situations -
• Anjali Jewellers is importing 100 KG of Gold, worth INR 30 Cr from US.
• Ruchi Soya has entered in a contract to export Soya Oil to US worth INR 20,000 Cr next year.
• Indian importer ABC partners has deposited USD 5 Million as refundable guarantee deposit
to tie up with US Company for 5 Years.
• Same ABC partners is sourcing business from US every month worth INR 25 Cr every year.
• Indo-Call runs 1000-seat BPO in India and US. Receives $100 per day as servicing fee.
• What happens if the INR depreciates against USD - rate moves from $50 to &52 in a month
And the fx risks -
• Anjali Jewellers’ operating profit falls with Rs 1.2 Cr every month.
• Ruchi Soya’s net income rises by 800 Cr a year.
• ABC partners will receive INR 10 Million extra on conversion of his deposit.
• Same ABC partners’ profit for the year increases to 1Cr for the year.
• Indo-Call receives Rs 60 Lakh additional gain each month.
Problem - currency exposure risk solution - hedging
Problem -
• Firms involved in international transactions face a risk, an unknown gain/loss,
on account of unanticipated changes in exchange rates.
• These transactions are quantified in terms of ‘international exposure’.
• Un-hedged exposures adversely affects P&L of companies and creates
operational hitches like cash flow requirements etc.
We need to manage our fx exposure
Foreign deposits
Overseas borrowings -FCCBs, ECBs
Capital goodimports
Imports Exports
Service exportcontracts
Capital flows -FDI, FI
Engineeringoffshore contracts
Payables Receivables
Solution on fx risk - hedging
• Hedging is a position established in one market in an attempt to offset
exposure in some opposite position in another market.
• The goal is to minimize one's exposure to unwanted risk.
• Hedging is thus taking of a position, either acquiring a cash flow or an asset
or a contract(including a forward contract) that will rise(fall) in value to
offset a fall(rise) in value of an existing position.
What is hedging – overview & concept?
• Hedging is a position established in one market in an attempt to offset
exposure in some opposite position in another market.
• The goal is to minimize one's exposure to unwanted risk.
• Hedging is thus taking of a position, either acquiring a cash flow or an asset
or a contract(including a forward contract) that will rise(fall) in value to
offset a fall(rise) in value of an existing position.
Keeping it simple - how to hedge?
Forex receivable Forex payable
• Short/Sell futures • Long/Buy futures
Cost of hedging & management of hedge
• Set price for transacting a foreign currency in the future
• Hedge forex exposure
• Cost to “lock in” this exchange rate
- margin deposits
- premium related to future rate for currency
- brokerage fee to obtain contract
- mark to market cash flow
- net settlement cash flow
Problem - Currency Exposure Risk
Solution - Hedging
Best Tool - Currency Derivatives
Problem - currency exposure risk
Solution - hedging
Best Tool - currency derivatives
What are currency derivatives?
• The term 'Derivatives' indicates it derives its value from some underlying i.e. it has
no independent value. Underlying can be securities, stock market index,
commodities, bullion, currency etc.
• Currency derivatives implies contracts where underlying would be the currency
exchange rate.
• Examples of currency trading pairs:
- USD-INR – US Dollar against Indian Rupee
- USD-EUR – US Dollar against Euro
- EUR-GBP – Euro against British Pound
Currency Derivatives @ ICICIdirect.com
Currency trading @ ICICIdirect.com
• Products offered
- 4 currency pairs
• USD-INR – 6 month forward contracts available for trading
• GBP-INR – 3 month forward contracts available for trading
• EUR-INR - 3 month forward contracts available for trading
• JPY-INR – 2 month forward contracts available for trading
- Only futures
- Option trading not available
• Trading screens
- Online through web-trading
- Call n trade facility
Currency Trading @ ICICIdirect.com
Symbol USD/INR EUR/INR GBP/INR JPY/INR
Instrument Type FUTCUR1 unit denotes1000 Dollar
The Exchange ratein INR for US Dollars
9.00 am to 5.00 p.m. ( Monday - Friday )
Last working day ( excluding Saturdays ) of the expiry month. The last working day will b e thesame as that for interbank Settlements in Mumbai
Cash Settled in INR
Calculated on the basis of the last half an hou weighted average price
RBI reference rateon last trading day
RBI reference rateon last trading day
RBI reference rateon last trading day
RBI reference rateon last trading day
Daily Settlement : T+ 1Final Settlement : T + 2
Two working days prior to the last business day of the expiry month at 12.15 pm12 months Trading Cycle
0.25 paise orINR 0.0025
0.25 paise or INR 0.0025 (The Quotewill be for 100 JPY)
0.25 paise orINR 0.0025
0.25 paise orINR 0.0025
The Exchange rate inINR for Euro
The Exchange rate inINR for Pound Sterling
The Exchange rate inINR for Japanese Yen
1 unit denotes1000 Yen
1 unit denotes1000 GBP
1 unit denotes1000 Eur
FUTCUR FUTCUR FUTCUR
Units of Trading
Underlying
Tick SizeTrading Hours
Contract Trading Cycle
Last trading Cycle
Final Settlement Day
Mode of Settlement
Daily Settlement price (DSP)
Final Settlement Price
Margin calculation in currency futures
Pair Underlying Contract exampleContract
valueMarginper lot
Margin%
Qty Lot size LTP
USDagainst INR
USD-INR1
1000FUT-USD-INR-28-08-2013
62.7425 62742.5 5333 8.5%
EURagainst INR
EUR-INR1
1000FUT-EUR-INR-28-08-2013
83.6325 83632.5 3764 4.5%
GBPagainst INR
GBP-INR1
1000FUT-GBP-INR-28-08-2013
98.0925 98092.5 4904 5%
JPYagainst INR
JPY-INR1
1000FUT-JPY-INR28-08-2013
64.6925 64692.5 3882 6%
Equity Currency
Derivatives
Equity derivates vs currency derivatives
• Market indices like nifty, bank nifty
• Equity scrips
• Currency pair is used as indices like
USD-INR, EUR-INR
Underlying
Equity derivates vs currency derivatives
Margins
• Vary from 11% to 35%, and upto 60% in exception.
• Low margins in indices – starting from 11%.
• Prime stock margins vary from 16% to 25%.
• General stocks margins start from 25% and above.
• 1 contract of nifty worth, Rs 2,45,000/- available at margin of Rs 26950. (@4900).
• Margins very low.
• Vary from 8.5% for USD INR.
• Exceptional margin applicable and extended to 1 - 2%.
• 1 Lot position of USD-INR available at Rs 5200/-.
• For contracts, equivalent to nifty - Rs 2,45,000/-, only Rs 20825/- is required.
Equity derivates vs currency derivatives
Lot size
• Lot size is based on contract value.
• Standard value set by NSE is Rs 2.5 Lakhs.
• Number of units in lot vary as per market price of scrip at the time of initiating the contract by NSE.
• Lot size is based on number of units of underlying in contract.
• Standard is 1000 Units of currency.
• Lot value is not the set standard.
Equity derivates vs currency derivatives
Tick size
• Tick size of Eq Dv is Rs 0.05 i.e. 5 Paise.
• Example of bid & offer
• Fx Dv tick size is Rs 0.0025 or 1/4th of 1Paise or 0.0025 Paise.
• Example of bid & offerEq Dv
Best bid price Best offer price
55.95 56.00
55.90 56.05
55.85 56.10
55.80 56.15
Fx Dv
Best bid price Best offer price
55.9875 55.9900
55.9850 55.9925
55.9825 55.9950
55.9800 55.9975
55.9775 56.0000
Equity derivates Vs currency derivatives
Exposure with Rs 1 Lakh fund
• 3 nifty contracts can be taken as position(avg margin 11%).
• 3 lots of nifty stocks (avg margin 14-15%).
• 2 lots of junior nifty stocks.
• 1 lot of fair margin stock.
• FX Dv is low margin & high leverage product.
• You can take position of 20 lots
of USD-INR.
• You can take position of 26 lots
of EUR-INR.
• Position value is worth Rs 12 lakhs.
Equity derivates vs currency derivatives
• In Eq dv, Rs 1 Lakh can allow 3 Lots of nifty and total position value will be Rs 7.35 Lakhs (assuming nifty price at 4900 and 11% margin).
• In FX, Rs 1 Lakh can allow 19 lots of USD-INR and total position value will be Rs 11.76 Lakhs (assuming USD-INR pair at Rs 62 with 8.5% margin).
• Currency derivatives consumes lower margin & provides 3 times higher exposure than equity derivatives.
Instrument
Nifty 100000 50 4900 245000 11% 26950 3 7.35
ITC 100000 1000 233 233000 14% 32620 3 6.99
PFC 100000 2000 150 300000 19% 57000 2 3.00
USD INR 100000 1000 62.75 62750 9% 5333.75 19 11.76
EUR INR 100000 1000 83.68 83680 4.5% 3765.6 27 22.22
Fundsavailable
Contractsize
Contractvalue
Marginon
contract
Marginvalue
No. ofcontracts
on fullmargin
Positionvalue inlakhs
Price
Daily currency report, provided by ICICI Securities research
Monthly Currency Derivatives Research Report
Disclaimer
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