WELD COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT RE-4

Long Range Facilities Master Plan Update

- Prepared for -Weld County School District Re-4

1020 Main StreetWindsor, CO 80550

- Prepared by -Strategic Resources West, Inc.

Denny Hill and Darci DrostP.O. Box 1448

Castle Rock, CO 80104(303) 688-7963

January 22, 2014

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section I. Economic and Demographic OverviewEmployment I-1Demographics I-7Economic Indicators I-13Housing Development I-14Summary I-20Section I. References I-22

Section II. Enrollment Analysis and Projections with Capacity ComparisonHistorical Enrollment Analysis II-1Births II-6District-wide Enrollment Projections II-7Enrollment Forecasts by School II-9Development-Based Projections II-9Summary – Enrollment Forecasts II-12Enrollment Forecasts vis-à-vis School Capacities II-12

Appendix A District-wide Enrollment Forecast ScenariosAppendix B. Individual School Forecasts

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LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

Figure orTable No. Table or Figure Title Page

I-1 Table I-1. Weld County Annual Average Employment by I-5Industrial Classification: Annual Estimates from 2003through 2012

I-2 Table I-2. School Age Population and Distribution by Age II-8Group: 2000 and 2010

I-3 Table I-3. Female Childbearing Population and Distribution: II-102000 and 2010

I-4 Table I-4. Live Births by Elementary School Attendance II-12Area: Colorado Residents from 1990 to 2012

I-5 Table I-5. Major Residential Developments Within Weld I-17County School District Re-4

I-1 Figure I-1. Major Residential Developments in Weld County School I-18District Re-4

I-6 Table I-6. Housing Units Planned, Built and Remaining to be I-19Built by Municipality

II-1 Table II-1. Weld County School District Re-1 Historical II-5Enrollment Changes by Grade: 2003 to 2013

II-2 Table II-2. Enrollment Projections Summary by Scenario: II-82014 to 2019

II-3 Table II-3. Enrollment Forecast Summary by School: II-102014 to 2019

II-4 Table II-4. Student Enrollment Potential Based Upon II-11Development Expectations: 2013 to 2018 and ProjectCompletion

II-5 Table II-5. Enrollment Forecasts vis-à-vis Permanent Facility II-13Capacity

SECTION I. ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC OVERVIEW

Weld County School District Re-4 serves the Towns of Windsor and Severance and asmall portion of Greeley plus certain unincorporated areas of western Weld County. Muchof the District’s economic and demographic characteristics are part of and reliant upon thosein Weld County and these municipalities. This section describes those characteristics thatinfluence District Re-4’s enrollment and subsequent school facility needs.

In recent years the Weld County economy has been largely supported by themanufacturing, health care and retail and trade industries. The County’s proximity to majortransportation corridors such as I-25, I-76, Highway 85 and Highway 34 may attribute to theconsiderable amount of residential, commercial and industrial development that hasoccurred in the last ten to twenty years. Relative to other areas along the Front Range, WeldCounty offers affordable housing, low taxes, and business development incentives. (1)Prospects for continued growth in the County are strong, particularly for small growingindustries. The County’s top industries for business expansion include energy production,manufacturing, healthcare and business services. (2) The population growth that could occurfrom potential commercial and industrial development in the County and surrounding areashas significant implications for the Re-4 School District’s ability to provide adequateeducational space.

Employment

The District relies largely on Weld County commerce to provide employmentopportunities for its residents. This section highlights key business development andexamines recent employment trends in Weld County. The information presented is basedon interviews with municipal and county planning staff and other local officials. WeldCounty’s ten largest employers and their local employment levels are: (3)

Company IndustryLocal

Employees

JBS Swift & Company Manufacturing 4,500Banner Health: North CO Medical Center Health care 3,000Vestas Manufacturing 1,600State Farm Insurance Companies Finance and insurance 1,460Carestream Health, Inc. Health care 520TeleTech Finance and insurance 500Hallibruton Energy Services, Inc. Mining 430McLane Western Transportation and

warehousing 390StarTek, Inc. Information 370Evangelical Lutheran Good SamaritanSociety Health care 330

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Manufacturing is a key industry in Weld County represented by large employers like JBSSwift & Company and Vestas. The JBS Swift & Company beef processing facility in Greeleycurrently provides 4,500 jobs. Vestas Wind Systems currently employs 1,600 workers at itswind turbine blade manufacturing facilities in Brighton and in the Great Western IndustrialPark in Windsor. The Northern Colorado Business Report recently published an articlestating that Vestas has landed a large contract to supply wind turbine blades to wind farmsacross the nation. The company plans to increase production at its Brighton and Windsorplants beginning in 2014. (4)

In addition to manufacturing, the health care industry provides a large and growingshare of total County employment. Banner Health, which operates a large medical center inthe area, currently provides 3,000 jobs in the County. Demand for health care services in thearea is expected to increase in order to accommodate the growing baby-boomer population.State Farm Insurance Companies is a large employer that provides 1,460 jobs in finance andinsurance, an industry that has been relatively stable in the past decade. Its regionalheadquarters facility is located in the southern portion of the School District. Lastly,Halliburton Energy Services employs 430 people in the mining industry. This particularcompany stands out as a key employer because it represents a growing industry in theCounty.

Several companies have announced plans for creating new or expanding currentoperations in the County. New jobs potential by company and industry based onannouncements made in 2011 and 2012 are: (5)

Company Industry *New Jobs

Xerox Commercial Solutions Information 700TeleTech Information 500Halliburton Mining 300Select Energy Services Mining 285Tolmar, Inc. Manufacturing 250PTI Group (Oil States International) Manufacturing 250Anadarko Petroleum Corp. Mining 200Otterbox Transportation & warehousing 150Aurora Organic Manufacturing 85Dairy Farmers of America Transportation & warehousing 45Noble Energy, Inc. Mining 45Norfolk Iron & Metal Transportation & warehousing 30Note: Excludes government sector.*New jobs when fully operational reflect the positions expected to be filled in the next 12-months or from date of opening new facilities.

These data indicate that the potential exists for approximately 2,840 new jobs, most notablyin the information industry. In May 2012, Xerox Commercial Solutions opened a call centerthat created 700 new jobs. TeleTech, a customer and technical support company, opened anew customer support center in Greeley that brought 500 new jobs to the area. Theseinformation jobs more than offset positions lost in the past decade. In addition,considerable job potential exists in the manufacturing industry. Pharmaceutical productsmanufacturer Tolmar, Inc. purchased an existing 145,000 square-foot building in Windsor in

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2012 to expand their manufacturing capabilities. This expansion could initially create 50 newjobs and 200 new jobs at full production build out in three to five years. In 2012 Halliburtonannounced a new sand storage terminal at the Great Western Industrial Park in Windsor.Select Energy Services, a company that services oilfield operators, expanded operations inGreeley to add 285 new jobs. Several local energy companies have hired more personnelthan predicted or have subcontracted work to other businesses.

The mining industry alone is expected to create 29 percent of new jobs in an industrythat has grown exponentially in the last decade. Since April 2011, 22 percent of prospectivebusiness development has been energy related within the Town of Windsor. Most of theseprospects have been supply chain related – safety, sand storage and trucking companies, forexample. It is expected that mining, particularly oil and gas, will continue to have asignificant impact on the Town. (6)

According to the Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission (COGCC),Colorado is currently experiencing a steady increase in gas and oil production. The recentupward trend in the State’s oil production is largely due to increasing activity in theWattenberg Oil Field (Wattenberg). Wattenberg is one of the largest oil and gas productionszones in the United States and it encompasses the southeastern portion of District Re-4.The COGCC recently published the graph below illustrating Colorado’s historical oilproduction by field. (7)

The COGCC expects that as new technologies continue to emerge in horizontal drilling andhydraulic fracturing, Wattenberg will continue to be an area of focus in effort to increaseproduction from the Niobrara Formation. Based on increasing interest in drilling into theNiobrara Formation, ongoing increases in oil production are expected in Weld County forthe next several years. Numerous active and inactive wells exist in the District Re-4 area inthe Town of Windsor, east of State Highway 257. More significant is the amount of planneddirectional and horizontal wells and lines located along the eastern edge of the Town ofWindsor and throughout the Town of Severance. Given its proximity to oil and gas wellsand upper quality housing stock, District Re-4 could be an attractive place for employeesinvolved in mining operations and support to reside. (8)

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In addition to job creation, job losses have occurred at certain companies in the area.Steven Roberts Desserts closed earlier this year, and the Hudson correctional facility lost itscontract resulting in job losses. Vestas and Bach Composites suffered layoffs but are in theprocess of re-hiring. Due to the recent flooding in Colorado, many energy sector employeesare not working, most likely a temporary situation. The flood has also impacted agriculturalworkers, many of whom work on a seasonal basis. However, paving and construction jobsare expected to counter some of the job losses.

Observations by key industry. Table I-1 shows total Weld County employment byNorth American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) from 2003 through 2012. Duringthis period, Weld County employment increased 17.5 percent, compared to 10.5 percent inadjacent Larimer County and seven percent statewide.

The graph below illustrates changes in total County employment by private andgovernment sector from 2003 through 2012: (9)

On average, the private sector employed 84 percent of total County employees from 2003 to2012. Overall, employment increased steadily across the private sector with notable jobincreases in the mining, health care, and accommodation and food industries. Employmentin these industries, particularly mining, increased significantly in proportion to total Countyemployment. Government employment contributed about 16 percent of total Countyemployment between 2003 and 2012. During this period, local government employmentincreased by nearly 1,440 jobs or 16 percent.

Industry 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Employ. Percent

Agriculture 3,322 3,528 3,685 3,658 3,750 3,333 3,261 3,314 3,448 3,422 100 3.0%

Mining 1,362 1,486 1,748 2,240 2,912 3,365 2,752 3,133 4,116 5,101 3,739 274.5%

Utilities 239 233 231 235 247 245 239 250 275 292 53 22.2%

Construction 6,395 7,025 8,053 7,976 8,022 8,152 6,609 6,349 6,392 6,921 526 8.2%

Manufacturing 10,435 10,105 9,787 10,079 10,274 11,258 10,733 10,240 11,201 11,378 943 9.0%

Wholesale trade 3,242 3,327 3,396 3,588 3,710 3,688 3,474 3,435 3,605 3,510 268 8.3%

Retail trade 7,830 8,262 8,177 8,222 8,543 8,469 7,709 7,531 7,849 8,151 321 4.1%

Transportation and warehousing 1,921 1,866 1,564 1,696 1,796 1,756 1,883 2,035 2,500 2,815 894 46.5%

Information 995 1,077 1,115 1,152 1,173 1,103 986 901 773 711 (284) -28.5%

Finance and insurance 2,966 3,180 3,611 3,821 3,782 3,732 3,485 3,134 2,897 2,990 24 0.8%

Real estate 871 916 1,003 1,063 1,091 964 935 929 936 958 87 10.0%

Professional and technical services 1,623 1,802 2,015 2,128 2,274 2,134 1,867 1,927 2,031 2,130 507 31.2%

Management of companies and enterprises 713 782 864 998 1,055 948 931 1,085 1,340 1,305 592 83.0%

Administrative and waste services 4,086 3,916 3,979 4,518 4,664 3,845 3,799 3,795 4,177 4,586 500 12.2%

Educational services 265 277 278 271 286 307 383 363 361 338 73 27.5%

Health care and social assistance 7,009 7,162 6,901 7,222 7,460 7,762 7,793 7,819 8,049 8,204 1,195 17.0%

Arts 694 744 810 813 769 818 785 712 767 792 98 14.1%

Accomodation and food 5,223 5,561 5,698 6,112 6,189 6,116 5,913 5,829 5,995 6,223 1,000 19.1%

Other services 1,725 1,691 1,754 1,774 1,813 1,893 1,874 1,817 1,764 1,832 107 6.2%

State government 1,999 1,987 2,066 2,193 2,271 2,364 2,453 2,525 2,534 2,568 569 28.5%

Local government 9,132 9,295 9,672 10,038 10,244 10,645 10,827 10,698 10,515 10,571 1,439 15.8%

Federal government 599 613 597 600 579 600 613 833 585 578 (21) -3.5%

Grand Total 72,646 74,835 77,004 80,397 82,904 83,497 79,304 78,654 82,110 85,376 12,730 17.5%

**: Data suppressed for privacy reasons.

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Table I-1. Weld County Annual Average Employment by Industrial Classification: Annual Estimates from 2003 through 2012

Based Upon the North American Industrial Classification System

Change: 2003-12

Source: Colorado Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, Unemployment Insurance Covered Employment and Wages, unpublished data, years shown.

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The graph below compares the distribution of total Weld County employment bymajor private industry in 2003 and 2012: (10)

During this period, the manufacturing industry maintained the largest share of total Countyemployment. Food and chemical manufacturing comprised the majority of activity withinthis industry. Second to manufacturing, the health care industry provided nearly ten percentof total County employment during this time. Ambulatory health care services and nursingand residential care facilities contributed the majority of jobs in this industry. SRW expectsemployment within the health care industry to continue to grow in proportion to totalCounty employment, as an increasing amount of baby boomers will need medical care.Since 2008, the retail and trade and construction industries have experienced significant joblosses due to the recession and are decreasing in proportion to total County employment.Following the recession, construction workers in the Denver metropolitan area begantransitioning to the mining industry for employment opportunities. This shift is beginningto impact the local housing market, as labor is in short supply and demand for housingdevelopment has rebounded. (11) The mining industry comprised less than two percent oftotal County employment in 2003. Most of the jobs in this industry pertained to miningsupport activities. Employment in this sector increased by nearly 3,740 jobs to six percent oftotal County employment in 2012. Based on recent demand for local oil production, it isexpected that mining support activities will continue to provide an increasing share of totalemployment opportunities. However, if employment in the mining industry continues tobecome an increasingly larger share of total County employment, significant disruptions tothe local economy could occur in a downturn, resulting in wide employment and populationfluctuations within a short time.

Based on recent trends in local business development and County employment, SRWexpects continued population growth to occur in the area. Based on its proximity toemployment centers, District Re-4 is positioned to continue attracting professionals with

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families who are interested in living in the District and are willing to commute to nearbyareas for work.

Demographics

Population. Population estimates by County, Municipality and School District areprovided by the Colorado State Demography Office and the National Center for EducationStatistics: (12)

Total Population by Area

Area: 1990 2000 2010

PercentChange2000-10 2011

Severance 106 597 3,165 430.2% 3,278Greeley 60,536 76,930 92,889 20.7% 94,336Windsor 5,062 9,896 18,644 88.4% 19,259Weld County 131,821 180,936 252,825 39.7% 258,448District Re-4 7,182 12,660 21,510 69.9% *

*Estimate not available; most recent estimate available is for 2010.

In the last decade, significant population growth occurred in Weld County. Between 2000and 2010, Weld County’s total population grew at an average annual rate of about fourpercent. During this period, the Town of Windsor nearly doubled from about 9,900 peoplein 2000 to 18,640 people in 2010, growing at more than twice the average annual rate of theCounty. Most notably, however, is the growth that occurred in the Town of Severanceduring this time. The population of the Town of Severance increased at an average annualrate of 43 percent growing from less than 600 people in 2000 to 3,165 people in 2010. Atthe same time, the City of Greeley’s population increased at an average annual rate of twopercent. District Re-4’s population, which is comprised largely of Severance and Windsorresidents along with a small portion of Greeley and unincorporated area residents, alsoincreased considerably between 2000 and 2010. Population growth experienced within theDistrict mirrored that of the Town of Windsor as the District added 8,850 residents duringthese ten years, increasing on average by about seven percent. Given recent regionalemployment trends and the amount of potential residential development in District Re-4,SRW expects continued population growth over the next several years.

School age population. For further analysis, Table I-2 shows the distribution ofschool age children to the total population of the County, Municipalities and School Districtin 2000 and 2010. (13) Overall, the proportion of school age children to the total populationof each area remained relatively stable from 2000 to 2010. In Severance, however, schoolage children are decreasing in proportion to the Town’s total population. During the past

2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010

Birth to 4 66 318 848 1,355 5,734 7,221 14,047 20,001 1,050 1,663

5 to 9 68 256 817 1,707 5,604 6,784 14,400 20,587 1,085 1,847

10 to 14 50 229 760 1,592 5,293 6,096 14,176 18,795 935 1,741

15 to 17 25 119 524 832 3,092 3,852 8,410 11,018 635 984Total SchoolAge

143 604 2,101 4,131 13,989 16,732 36,986 50,400 2,655 4,572

2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010

Birth to 4 11.1% 10.0% 8.6% 7.3% 7.5% 7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.3% 7.7%

5 to 9 11.4% 8.1% 8.3% 9.2% 7.3% 7.3% 8.0% 8.1% 8.6% 8.6%

10 to 14 8.4% 7.2% 7.7% 8.5% 6.9% 6.6% 7.8% 7.4% 7.4% 8.1%

15 to 17 4.2% 3.8% 5.3% 4.5% 4.0% 4.1% 4.6% 4.4% 5.0% 4.6%Total SchoolAge to Total

24.0% 19.1% 21.2% 22.2% 18.2% 18.0% 20.4% 19.9% 21.0% 21.3%

Weld County District Re-4

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Table I-2. School Age Population and Distribution by Age Group: 2000 and 2010

SchoolAge Group

Population

Severance Windsor Greeley Weld County District Re-4

Sources: National Center for Educational Statistics and U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 & 2010, Summary File 1.

SchoolAge Group

Distribution

Severance Windsor Greeley

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decade the distribution of school age children across age groups has remained consistentwith one notable exception. From 2000 to 2010, the amount of children in the birth to 4 agegroup decreased by about one percent each in Severance and Windsor. District Re-4 alsoexperienced a decrease in the same age group during this time. This one percent decreasehas the potential to affect future enrollment if fewer children are present to move throughthe grade levels. Although significant residential development potential exists in the District,any future student generation in this age group will depend on the type of housing,particularly entry level, available in the area.

As an indicator of potential population change, it is often helpful to consider thedistribution of the area’s female childbearing population. Table I-3 shows the distribution offemales 15 to 50 years of age by County, Municipality and School District: (14) Over the lastdecade, the County’s female childbearing population decreased about two percent inproportion to its total population; similar trends were experienced in Greeley and Severance.At the same time, the Town of Windsor’s female childbearing population decreased bynearly seven percent in proportion to its total population. In the Town of Windsor, thedistribution of the female childbearing population has shifted noticeably to the 35 to 50years age group. These data indicate an aging female childbearing population overall, mostnoticeably in the Town of Windsor. This change has significant implications for the District,as Windsor comprises a considerable share of its population. The presence of youngerfemale childbearing population influences births, and the ability to replenish the population.

The State Demography Office also forecasts population based upon area demographiccharacteristics, net migrations estimates and other factors. Population forecasts are providedfor the state, regions within the state and for counties. The Office’s most recent forecastsfor Weld County suggest significant growth through 2040: (15)

Change by Decade

Year Population Population Percent

1990 131,821 NA NA2000 180,936 49,115 37.3%2010 252,825 71,889 39.7%2011 *

Forecast:2012 263,0302013 268,6392014 275,3022015 282,7062020 328,588 75,763 30.0%2025 385,3942030 445,160 116,572 35.5%2035 505,7052040 567,218 122,058 27.4%

Population forecasts are produced annually by the StateDemography Office. The most recent forecasts were produced

in September, 2012.

2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010

15 to 19 years 14 92 383 557 4,178 4,673 21,062 27,238 535 669

20 to 34 years 81 349 1,089 1,424 10,209 11,584 7,972 9,927 1,345 1,969

35 to 50 years 77 377 1,394 2,479 7,854 8,391 20,636 26,763 1,730 2,686

15 to 50 years tototal

172 818 2,866 4,460 22,241 24,648 49,670 63,928 3,610 5,324

2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010 2000 2010

15 to 19 years 8.1% 11.2% 13.4% 12.5% 18.8% 19.0% 16.0% 15.5% 14.8% 12.6%

20 to 34 years 47.1% 42.7% 38.0% 31.9% 45.9% 47.0% 41.5% 41.9% 37.3% 37.0%

35 to 50 years 44.8% 46.1% 48.6% 55.6% 35.3% 34.0% 42.4% 42.6% 47.9% 50.5%

15 to 50 years tototal

28.8% 25.8% 29.0% 23.9% 28.9% 26.5% 27.5% 25.3% 28.5% 24.8%

Weld County District Re-4

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Table I-3. Female Childbearing Population and Distribution: 2000 and 2010

ChildbearingAge Group

Population

Severance Windsor Greeley Weld County District Re-4

Sources: National Center for Educational Statistics and U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 & 2010, Summary File 1.

ChildbearingAge Group

Distribution

Severance Windsor Greeley

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By 2020, Weld County is forecast to have a population of nearly 328,590 people, growing to445,160 people by 2030 and to nearly 567,220 people by 2040. A significant amount ofpotential growth could occur in District Re-4 as development potential is realized and moreland is annexed into the incorporated areas of Severance and Windsor.

Births. Table I-4 provides detailed information on District Re-4 births byelementary school attendance area from 1990 through 2012. The graph below illustratesDistrict Re-4 births by elementary school attendance area from 1990 through 2012. Duringthis period, the total number of births in the District more than tripled from 97 children in1990 to 318 children in 2012. Between 1990 and 2000, total district births increased bynearly 125 percent from 97 children in 1990 to 218 children in 2000. Total district birthspeaked in 2000 at 218 children then decreased by 30 children, or 14 percent, in 2001. By2003 total district births rebounded to 238 children, an increase of 50 children or 27 percent.Over the next five years, total district births increased by 66 children or nearly 28 percentwith 238 children in 2003 and 304 children in 2008. The total number of births in theDistrict has stabilized in the last five years increasing by less than five percent between 2008and 2012. Overall, trends in the total number of District births appear to be indicative ofindividual elementary attendance areas:

Between 1990 and 2012 the number of births increased significantly in each elementaryattendance area, especially in the Grandview Elementary and Range View Elementaryattendance areas. During this period, the number of births in both the Mountain View-Tozer Elementary and Skyview Elementary attendance areas more than doubled.Meanwhile, births in the Grandview and Range View Elementary attendance areas morethan quadrupled and tripled, respectively. Over the past few years, births varied noticeablyin the Range View Elementary attendance area but appear to be rebounding after a near 33percent decrease between 2010 and 2011. District births should continue to increase overthe next several years generally in proportion with the anticipated population growth. The

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Table I-4. Live Births by Elementary School AttendanceArea: Colorado Residents from 1990 to 2012

ElementaryArea Grandview

Mtn.View-Tozer

RangeView Skyview

GrandTotal

1990 7 51 20 19 97

1991 4 33 10 29 76

1992 * 52 12 23 89

1993 * 64 18 27 111

1994 3 57 10 30 100

1995 9 66 17 23 115

1996 10 69 12 38 129

1997 11 71 17 46 145

1998 9 90 18 44 161

1999 12 72 25 44 153

2000 19 122 26 51 218

2001 16 107 19 46 188

2002 15 115 18 65 213

2003 31 136 24 47 238

2004 22 109 29 47 207

2005 34 122 38 52 246

2006 32 121 57 47 257

2007 29 140 71 44 284

2008 34 139 75 56 304

2009 28 140 72 52 292

2010 35 142 95 55 327

2011 40 148 64 46 298

2012 44 151 82 41 318

Change: 2003-12

Births 13 15 58 (6) 80

Percent 41.9% 11.0% 241.7% -12.8% 33.6%

* Indicates 1 or 2 events in category.

Source: Health Statistics Section, Colorado Department of Public Health andEnvironment, 1990-2012.

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historical number of births is often times an indicator of Kindergarten and first gradeenrollment five or six years into the future. However, in-migration and out-migration ofthese age groups must also be considered.

Economic Indicators

It is helpful to consider certain key characteristics in a region to determine theconditions of the local economy. These characteristics provide insights into demand forselected educational programs and related services.

Retail sales. Retail sales are a good indicator of local economic conditions as theyreflect the amount of spending occurring within an area. Historical retail sales for theTowns of Severance and Windsor are: (16)

Severance Windsor

Retail Sales Sales Change: Retail Sales Sales Change:

Year (Millions) (Millions) Percent (Millions) (Millions) Percent

2003 $ 4.1 NA NA $ 165.0 NA NA

2004 4.8 $ 0.7 18.0% 210.1 $ 45.1 27.4%

2005 9.4 4.6 96.2% 253.4 43.3 20.6%

2006 5.6 (3.8) -40.0% 278.0 24.7 9.7%

2007 10.9 5.3 93.9% 308.1 30.1 10.8%

2008 10.4 (0.6) -5.1% 332.4 24.3 7.9%

2009 9.9 (0.5) -4.6% 249.4 (83.1) -25.0%

2010 11.4 1.5 15.2% 231.0 (18.4) -7.4%

2011 12.1 0.7 6.5% 255.7 24.7 10.7%

2012 13.6 1.5 12.1% 312.8 57.1 22.3%

Retail sales in both areas decreased significantly in years following the economic recessionthat began in 2008. Over the last two to three years, retail sales in both areas haverebounded past previous peaks. Compared with Severance, Windsor’s retail sales have takena little while longer to recover, which reflects the lack of a local commercial base.

Assessed values. Total assessed values for Weld Re-4 from 2002 to 2013 are: (17)

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AssessedChange From Prior

Year

Valuation Assess. Value Bonding Capacity (thousands)

Year (thousands) (thousands) Percent at 25% at 20%

2002 $ 184,968 NA $ 46,242 $ 36,994

2003 207,928 $ 22,960 12.41% 51,982 41,586

2004 225,195 17,267 8.30% 56,299 45,039

2005 246,519 21,324 9.47% 61,630 49,304

2006 280,945 34,426 13.96% 70,236 56,189

2007 363,574 82,628 29.41% 90,893 72,715

2008 416,226 52,652 14.48% 104,056 83,245

2009 431,823 15,598 3.75% 107,956 86,365

2010 523,805 91,982 21.30% 130,951 104,761

2011 478,016 (45,788) -8.74% 119,504 95,603

2012 465,853 (12,164) -2.54% 116,463 93,171

2013 483,962 18,109 3.89% 120,990 96,792

2014 480,496 (3,466) -0.72% 120,124 96,099

Assessed values typically lag property appraisals by about two years. The District’s assessedvalues from 2011 to 2012 were adversely affected by the deflated property values thatresulted from the economic downturn in 2008. Assessed value rebounded in 2013 but thendeclined again slightly in 2014. Assessed values influence the District’s bonding capacity andits ability to fund projects to provide adequate educational facilities. Under Colorado RevisedStatute, the District is currently able to issue debt up to 20 percent of its assessed value sinceenrollment growth has averaged less than 2.5 percent annually for at least three consecutiveyears.

Housing Development

Significant residential development potential exists in Weld County School DistrictRe-4. Several large-scale projects are in the planning process or currently under constructionin the District that could near completion within the next twenty years. Most of thedevelopment planned is located in the Range View and Mountain View/Tozer ElementarySchool areas and consists primarily of single family-detached housing. There is alsosubstantial development planned in the Grandview and Skyview Elementary School areasthat could be realized within the next several years as many of the projects in these areas arecurrently under construction. Growth ensuing from the amount and type of plannedresidential development could significantly increase demand for educational facilities andservices. This section of the report examines historical housing development trends andimplications for accommodating growth potential in the District.

Historical development. Data from the Weld County Assessor’s Office indicatethat over 40 percent of existing homes in Weld Re-4 were built between 2000 and 2009.More than 90 percent of houses built during this period were single family detached (SF-d)homes; SF-d housing remains the predominant unit type. Housing construction accelerated

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in the 1990s; the District’s housing stock nearly doubled during this decade. Between 2000and 2009, development increased by 70 percent, as 1,430 units were built. Construction hastapered off in recent years as a result of the Great Recession and a weak housing market.From 2010 to 2012 construction of units has averaged about 100 units per year, which seemslow compared with 350 units per year experienced in 2000-2009. However, housingconstruction during this period was unrealistically high and influenced by a false market.While SRW expects development in the area to pick up in the next several years it is unlikelythat activity will rebound to previous highs. (18)

Housing Units by Type

Year Built SF-d SF-a MF Total

Pre 1970 753 2 - 7551970's 764 - 163 9271980's 312 - 108 4201990's 1850 119 91 20602000's 3231 259 - 3490

2010-2011 205 - - 205Total 7115 380 362 7857

Annual single family-detached building permit activity by town was:

Single Family Building Permits by Town

Year Greeley Severance Windsor

2000 17 451

2001 64 374

2002 702 124 2752003 603 141 287

2004 706 163 411

2005 565 215 4512006 315 134 331

2007 152 53 224

2008 60 21 1192009 46 41 96

2010 80 21 134

2011 35 10 2442012 55 12 437

YTD 2013 106 24 270Average Last10 Years 262 81 273

In the past, most of the residential development in the District has occurred within theTown of Windsor. In the last decade, more SF-d have been built in the Town of Severanceas more land has been annexed from the County and developed. While only a small portion

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of the City of Greeley is within the District’s jurisdiction, this area represents 25 percent ofthe City’s long range growth. Substantial development potential exists in this southeastportion of the District and housing construction is expected to increase considerably overthe next twenty to thirty years, with approximately 72 units built per year between 2013 and2020. (19)

For Windsor, SF-d building permit activity has rebounded from previous lowsobserved in 2008 and 2009. Over the last few years, development has been quite a bit morevolatile in both Greeley and Severance. Based on the expectations of the local developmentcommunity, the number of SF-d building permits could continue to grow overall, withGreeley and Severance contributing an increasing share of the total houses built over thenext ten to twenty years.

Residential development by area. Table I-5 lists major planned residentialdevelopments in the District by town (see Figure I-1 for locations). About half of thehousing construction planned for the next five to ten years is expected to occur in the RangeView Elementary School area, primarily attributable to the start up of large projects includingGreat Western, Hidden Valley Farm and Tailholt. Estimated residential growth expectationsare based upon interviews with local planning staff and the development community. Intotal, about 21,410 dwelling units remain to be constructed within the major plannedprojects, with approximately 3,250 units in Lake Bluff, 1,980 units in Great Western, and1,840 units in Tailholt. Any new projects receiving approval following this analysis wouldlikely shift the distribution of housing (and enrollment) among all the areas served by theDistrict.

Table I-6 shows the amount and location of residential construction remaining withinthe District. These residential development data are organized by elementary schoolattendance areas and show anticipated annual absorption, or estimated rates of constructionbased upon interviews with local planning staff and developers and represent the mostrecent data available. Annual absorption is based on interviews with the developmentcommunity; Strategic Resources West advises using careful discretion to estimate reasonableannual absorption considering recent and expected trends in housing construction within theDistrict as compared with expected demand. Development community expectations,individually and especially when aggregated, are typically quite optimistic.

The majority of residential development potential exists in the Range View ElementarySchool attendance area where nearly 8,500 dwelling units remain to be built. Several large-scale projects are planned in this area, many of which are expected to begin within the nexttwo to five years. In the Town of Windsor, approximately 1,980 total units are planned inGreat Western. This property was annexed into the Town of Windsor in 2007 and is in thepreliminary planning stages. The project is not expected to begin for several years but uponcompletion, it would add about 1,590 SF-d units and 400 multi-family units. (20) Severalsizeable projects are under construction within the Town of Severance and several others arein the preliminary planning stages. The Tailholt subdivision is one sizeable project approvedfor 1,840 total units comprised of 1,360 SF-d and 480 multi-family homes. This project isexpected to begin in the next two to five years. In addition, Hidden Valley Farm is in thepreliminary planning process for 725 total units and is expected to begin late 2013. Theproject will begin with one phase of 160 SF-d units; the remaining 500-600 units will consistof a mix of single family and multifamily housing to be completed within the next five to tenyears. (21) Minimal absorption has occurred in major active projects such as Hunter Hill andTimberline, but development is expected to accelerate. About 50 units have been built in

Single Family Multi-

Subdivision Planned Approved Built Det. Att. family Total

City of Greeley:

Boomerang Ranch 197 73 56 93 - 48 141

Lake Bluff 3,252 - - 731 1,477 1,044 3,252

Mountain Shadows 342 342 342 - - - -

Mountain Vista 124 124 123 1 - - 1

Owl Ridge 277 137 65 212 - - 212

Poudre River Ranch 236 236 111 125 - - 125

Promontory 1,350 515 131 1,219 - - 1,219

Tripointe - - - - - - -All others 165 106 2 159 4 - 163

Total Greeley 5,943 1,533 830 2,540 1,481 1,092 5,113

Town of Severance:

Hergert Farm 240 - - 240 - - 240

Hidden Valley Farm 725 161 - 560 165 - 725

Hidden Valley Ranch 465 465 - 275 150 40 465

Hunter Hill 502 107 53 428 21 - 449

Lake Shore 220 - - 220 - - 220

Mikelson 200 - - 200 - - 200

Park Ridge-Felte 240 - 1 239 - - 239

Tailholt 1,837 1,837 - 1,355 - 482 1,837

Summit View 166 163 157 9 - - 9

Timber Ridge 761 657 396 365 - - 365All Others 1,739 795 541 1,128 70 - 1,198

Total Severance 7,095 4,185 1,148 5,019 406 522 5,947

Total Unincorporated 77 77 72 5 - - 5

Town of Windsor:

Brunner Farm (New Windsor) 298 298 293 5 - - 5

Grasslands Park 207 207 136 - - 71 71

Great Western 1,982 - - 1,586 - 396 1,982

Greenspire 844 582 57 525 46 216 787

Harmony Ridge 505 - - 505 - - 505

Jacoby Farm 286 196 - 196 - 90 286

Northlake 815 - - 815 - - 815

Poudre Heights 576 164 154 236 - 186 422

Tacincala 2,292 - - 1,448 - 844 2,292

Water Valley South 2,237 1,353 779 305 28 1,125 1,458

Windshire Park 572 572 242 290 - 40 330

Winter Farm 557 317 317 240 - - 240All Others 1,974 1,338 821 1,141 - 12 1,153

Total Windsor 13,145 5,027 2,799 7,292 74 2,980 10,346

Grand Total 26,260 10,822 4,849 14,856 1,961 4,594 21,411

Table I-5. Major Residential Developments Within Weld County School District Re-4

Units Remaining to be Built

Total Units

Source: Strategic Resources West, Inc. interviews with John Barnett, City of Greeley; and selected developers andbuilders, Jim Birdsall and John Holdren, Town of Severance; Scott Ballstadt, Town of Windsor; July and August 2013.

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Rangeview

Grandview

MountainView/Tozer

Skyview

MountainView/Tozer

Skyview

Tripointe

Belmont

Promontory

Water Valley So

Saddler

Talon

River RidgeWater Valley

Tacincala

Great Western Great Western

Windsor Highland

Remington Est.

Soaring Eagle

South Hill

Greenspire

Hilltop Estates

Shiloh Creek

Westwood Village

Hidden Valley Fa

Baldridge

CasaLoma

Winter Farm

Hunter Hill

Windshire ParkStone Creek

Timber Ridge

Poudre River Ran

The Reserve

Schneider

Jacoby Farm Eastbrook

Lakeshore

Elk Ranch Est.

Poudre Heights

Mountain View

Alexander Est.

Riverbend

Simonson Annex.North Shores

Brunner FarmsCattell

Parkridge

Avery MeadowsVentana Estates

FoxRidge

Boomerang Ranch

Mountain Shadows

Summit View

Sorel Ridge

Governor's FarmCornerstone

Park View

Settlers Landing

Moriah Estates

Sage Hill PUD

WaterVllyHillsde

Calabria

Winter Knolls

£¤34

rs257

rs392

rs14

rs257

UNITED STATES HIGHWAY 34

W 10TH ST

Figure I-1. Major Residential Developments in Weld County School District Re-4

LegendDistrictBoundaryDevelopments

Elementary AreaGrandviewMountainView/TozerRangeviewSkyview

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Elementary Total Units

School Area Single Family Multi- Anticipated

Attendance Area Planned Approved 2012 Det. Att. family Total 13 14 15 16 17 18 13 to 18

Grandview 5,225 2,076 779 2,989 46 1,263 4,298 126 141 186 158 161 154 926

Mtn. View/Tozer 9,416 3,638 1,835 3,438 1,509 2,413 7,360 222 300 327 345 323 314 1,831

Rangeview 9,900 4,255 1,385 7,174 406 918 8,498 178 241 470 635 683 626 2,833

Skyview 1,719 853 463 1,255 - - 1,255 10 11 16 15 16 16 84

Total 26,260 10,822 4,462 14,856 1,961 4,594 21,411 536 693 999 1,153 1,183 1,110 5,674

Distributions:

Grandview 19.9% 19.2% 17.5% 20.1% 2.3% 27.5% 20.1% 23.5% 20.3% 18.6% 13.7% 13.6% 13.9% 16.3%

Mtn. View/Tozer 35.9% 33.6% 41.1% 23.1% 77.0% 52.5% 34.4% 41.4% 43.3% 32.7% 29.9% 27.3% 28.3% 32.3%

Rangeview 37.7% 39.3% 31.0% 48.3% 20.7% 20.0% 39.7% 33.2% 34.8% 47.0% 55.1% 57.7% 56.4% 49.9%

Skyview 6.5% 7.9% 10.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5%

Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Strategic Resources West, Inc. interviews with planning staff from the three municipalities and Weld County plus area developers and home builders, July and August 2013.

I-19

Table I-6. Housing Units Planned, Built and Remaining to be Built by Municipality

Units Remaining to be Built

Total Units Units Built Annual Housing Absorption Estimate

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Hunter Hill, a project that could bring 500 SF-d units. This project has been put on holdbut is expected to resume in the near future. Timber Ridge, a project that is planned for 760total units, could add another 365 SF-d units and is expected to be complete within the nexttwo to five years. There has been growing interest in annexing land into the Town ofSeverance lately and the inventory of improved lots is depleting. The Town has adequatewater and sewer capacity available to support additional development in the near future.Officials expect half of all currently approved lots in Severance to be built in the next two tofive years. Further, within ten to twenty years the Town expects to add another 500-1,000lots. Potential for a total of 17,000 SF-d units exists in the Town of Severance. (22)Although Severance experienced foreclosures following the recession, properties have notremained vacant for long and the housing market in the area appears to be picking up. (23)

Considerable housing development is expected to occur in the Mountain View/TozerElementary School area, primarily attributable to large projects including Lake Bluff andWater Valley South. Several large projects are under construction or planned in the City ofGreeley. The Lake Bluff subdivision is one large project that is in the initial planning phases.The property associated with this project is zoned for 3,250 units that could bring 730 SF-dhomes, 1,480 single family-attached homes and 1,040 multi-family units to the City ofGreeley. There is currently no infrastructure in place at this time but the developers expectto start within the net two to five years. (24) In Windsor, approximately 2,240 units areplanned in the Water Valley South subdivision, a multi-phase project that is still underconstruction. Nearly 1,460 units remain to be built and MF housing comprises the majorityof remaining housing in this project. (25) Poudre Heights is currently under construction inthe Town of Windsor; nearly 580 total units are planned in this project. The initial phase ofthis project is nearly complete but over 420 units remain in subsequent phases of the project,including 240 SF-d and 190 MF units.

Significant residential development potential exists in the Grandview ElementarySchool and Skyview Elementary School attendance areas, primarily in Windsor.Approximately 2,290 SF-d homes are planned in Tacincala, a subdivision planned for 1,450SF-d and 840 multi-family units. More than 840 homes are planned in Greenspire; 60 SF-dunits have been built in this subdivision and 587 units are already approved but there hasbeen minimal activity in recent years for unknown reasons. (26) In Greeley, within theSkyview Elementary School area, currently 130 SF-d homes exist in Promontory, asubdivision approved for 1,350 SF-d units.

Housing development summary. Overall, a substantial amount of residentialdevelopment potential remains in the District, especially in the Mountain View/Tozer andRange View Elementary School areas. Single family-detached housing comprises themajority of housing planned in these areas; this type of housing typically generates moreschool-aged children than any other housing type.

Based upon the amount of existing and remaining primarily single family residentialconstruction in the District, student yields in this area may have a propensity to decrease inthe next several years. A considerable amount of single family- detached housing remains inthe Town of Severance, which could potentially increase student generation rates as slatedprojects begin and housing construction accelerates in the next five to ten years. Based onrecent trends in housing development and expectations for completing the planned projectscited above, residential construction will likely accelerate over the next several years.

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Summary

Prospects for continued growth in the Weld Re-4 area are strong. Employmentcenters in Weld County and nearby areas provide a wide variety of job opportunities forresidents. Expectations for further economic development indicate the potential for jobcreation, bringing more families to the area. Population growth potential is strong in theDistrict; however, the aging of the existing population could begin to erode the enrollmentbase at the lower grade levels. Considerable residential development potential exists in thearea; however, any increase in the school age population will depend on the availability ofaffordable and appropriate housing types to accommodate younger families that couldpotentially provide for more students.

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SECTION I. REFERENCES

1. Upstate Colorado Economic Development, 30 July 2013.

2. Metro Denver Economic Development Corporation, Communities, InteractiveCommunities Map, Weld County.

3. Upstate Colorado Economic Development, Weld County, Colorado 2012 EconomicProfile.

4. Northern Colorado Business Report, “Vestas’ Colorado factories win major neworders,” 22 August 2013.

5. Op Cit. Upstate Colorado Economic Development.

6. Stacy Johnson, Manager, Town of Windsor, Economic Development, 9 September2013.

7. Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, Colorado Oil and Gas Production– Update (April 2013).

8. Tom Kerr, Acting Director, Colorado Oil and Gas Conservation Commission, 4September 2013.

9. Colorado Department of Labor, Labor Market Information, UnemploymentInsurance Covered Employment and Wages, unpublished data, years shown.

10. Ibid.

11. John Covert, Metrostudy, 11 September 2013.

12. Colorado Division of Local Government, State Demographer’s Office, ColoradoPopulation Estimates, February 2011.

13. National Center for Educational Statistics and U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2000 and2010, Summary File 1.

14. Ibid.

15. Colorado Division of Local Government, State Demographer’s Office, ColoradoPopulation Forecasts (years - 2000-2040), September 2012.

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16. Colorado Department of Revenue, State Sales Tax Collected in Colorado Countiesand Selected Cities and Related Statistics, years shown.

17. Weld County School District Re-4, years shown.

18. Weld County Assessor’s Database, August 2013.

19. John Barnett, City of Greeley, Community Development, 22 July 2013.

20. Scott Ballstadt, Chief Planner, Town of Windsor, Planning, 24 September 2013.

21. Jeff Mark, The Landhuis Development Company, 7 August 2013.

22. Jim Birdsall, TB Group, 8 July 2013.

23. John Holdren, Town Manager, Town of Severance, 12 August 2013.

24. Otis Moore, Westside Investment Partners, 4 September 2013.

25. Josh Vicars, DR Horton, 18 July 2013.

26. Op Cit. Scott Ballstadt.

SECTION II. ENROLLMENT ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

An overview of historical enrollment for Weld County School District Re-4 is provided in thissection. The data are based upon fall enrollment counts provided by School District records and theColorado Department of Education (CDE). Enrollment projections for special programs are notprovided because data can vary widely among (and within districts) due to staffing and other factors.Observations regarding variances in enrollment from one year to the next and characteristicsattributable to unique local factors are offered based upon review of applicable data and interviewswith District and other local government officials conducted in late 2013.

Historical Enrollment Analysis

Weld Re-4 applies a Kindergarten through fifth grade elementary program while the middleand high schools are grades six through eight and nine through twelve, respectively. Since 2004enrollment has increased on average six percent annually:

Enrollment by School Level

Fall Elemen. Middle Sr. High Total

2004 1,499 776 796 3,071

2005 1,576 787 903 3,266

2006 1,730 862 965 3,557

2007 1,866 871 996 3,733

2008 1,894 879 1,050 3,823

2009 1,989 903 1,068 3,960

2010 2,086 1,053 1,080 4,219

2011 2,213 1,101 1,117 4,431

2012 2,263 1,166 1,163 4,592

2013 2,277 1,179 1,234 4,690

In the last year enrollment increased by 2.1 percent, one third of the average annual rate of growthexperienced over the last ten years. The elementary grades comprised the majority of absoluteenrollment growth during this time by adding more than 380 students (a 20 percent increase). Interms of percentage growth, enrollment at the middle school level increased considerably, growingby more than 34 percent or 300 students. High school enrollment grew steadily by 180 students or18 percent. Overall, enrollment has increased but it has been growing at a flattening rate due inlarge part to poor economic conditions that resulted in less housing development and fewer births(job insecurity can adversely affect births). Therefore, lower enrollment growth, at least inKindergarten and first grade, should be expected a few years after the Great Recession of 2008; asimilar trend was observed in 2008 after the economic downturn that began in 2001. However,certain other factors are believed to have also negatively influenced enrollment in recent yearsincluding the opening of charter schools in nearby Greeley School District 6 and increasing out-

II-2

migration of students. In combination, these factors have contributed to a lower level of enrollmentgrowth than expected that has significant implications for the District’s bonding capacity. Schooldistricts must maintain annual growth of 2.5 percent or more for at least three consecutive years toqualify as a fast growing district. Under Colorado Revised Statute, Weld Re-4 currently does notmeet that threshold and can only issue debt up to 20 percent of its assessed value becauseenrollment growth was 1.9 percent from fall 2012 to 2013.

Despite the lingering effects of the economy and the factors mentioned above, enrollment hascontinued to grow. As demonstrated by the graph below, increases at the higher grade levels,especially at the middle school level, reflect continuous growth within the District as large classescycle through the system.

Although recent data indicate decelerating growth, substantial residential and commercialdevelopment within the area continues to provide potential for significant enrollment increases.Further, enrollment at both the middle and high school levels should continue to increase as largelower-level class sizes work through the upper grades. Smaller primary grade classes suggest slowinggrowth or declines as they graduate through the system, unless offset by net in-migration.

As shown by the graphs below, District Re-4 enrollment increased steadily between 2000 and2013. Minimal variation occurred from 2003 to 2005 and again from 2008 to 2009, each declinefollowing an economic recession. In recent years, enrollment growth has been stable but it has notbeen as high as expected likely due to the aforementioned factors. Larger lower-level classes fromprevious years will support continued growth at the middle and high school levels. However, lowergrowth at the elementary school level will not be offset without significant gains from housingdevelopment (driving births) and in-migration.

II-3

II-4

Table II-1 shows the annual enrollment changes by grade and for each school type since 2000.Weld Re-4 experienced substantial enrollment growth at the elementary school level in the mid2000s. From 2003 to 2013, elementary enrollment increased substantially with the greatest gainsexperienced between the kindergarten and first grade levels. During this period, middle schoolenrollment also increased considerably, due to significant growth at the sixth grade level, averaging22 students annually vis-à-vis 24 students per year from kindergarten to first. High school levelenrollment losses averaged 36 students during the decade enrollment continued to decline over thelast three years. Total district enrollment increased an average of 86 students per year since 2003.In 2013, the District experienced a net increase of 98 students, nearly half the amount of net growthseen over the last ten years. Although enrollment growth has decelerated and may continue do so inthe near future, substantial development potential remains and growth will occur again wheneconomic conditions improve.

Another indication of net enrollment change is provided by a comparison of graduatingtwelfth grade classes with Kindergarten students that replace them the following school year:

Year Enrollment Net

(Fall) Kinder. 12th Change

2004 263 173 742005 256 180 83

2006 310 196 130

2007 331 193 135

2008 309 239 116

2009 316 239 77

2010 341 238 102

2011 380 255 142

2012 375 272 120

2013 372 264 100

These data indicate that if no changes occurred among other grades as the students graduate, theDistrict would experience increasing enrollment. For example, as the fall 2012 twelfth grade class of272 students graduated the following spring, the enrolling class of 372 Kindergarten studentsreplaced them in the fall of 2013. This resulted in a net increase of 100 students, assuming all theother classes would remain the same size in terms of their student populations. Consequently, as thelarger Kindergarten classes graduate to first grade and are generally replaced by larger classes insubsequent years, the base number of students continues to grow, exerting a positive influence ontotal District enrollment.

ABSOLUTE CHANGE IN ENROLLMENT: YEAR TO YEAR TREND

Total Net Change

Change Total Total Total District From

From K-1 to K K to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 Elemen. 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 Middle 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 Sr High Enrollment Prior Year

2003-04 50 40 5 13 12 14 134 17 6 27 50 (3) (9) (16) (20) (48) 136 160

2004-05 (7) 35 1 - 11 23 63 20 12 1 33 3 14 7 (15) 9 105 195

2005-06 54 38 5 30 19 25 171 24 20 8 52 9 4 (6) (15) (8) 215 291

2006-07 21 21 20 12 14 6 94 6 10 1 17 (6) 8 (12) (39) (49) 62 176

2007-08 (22) (8) (3) (7) 5 9 (26) 17 6 (2) 21 6 (1) (21) (27) (43) (48) 90

2008-09 7 38 13 12 7 16 93 2 19 1 22 (10) (15) (16) (7) (48) 67 137

2009-10 25 32 17 14 10 19 117 36 31 28 95 (18) 4 (1) (15) (30) 182 259

2010-11 39 14 23 7 24 12 119 42 20 (6) 56 (30) 4 (15) (25) (66) 109 212

2011-12 (5) 14 6 2 12 3 32 36 8 (7) 37 (33) 7 5 (12) (33) 36 161

2012-13 (3) 13 (4) 7 5 (2) 16 16 1 4 21 (35) 6 (5) (8) (42) (5) 98

Average Change:

Last 10 16 24 8 9 12 13 81 22 13 6 40 (12) 2 (8) (18) (36) 86 178

Last 5 13 22 11 8 12 10 75 26 16 4 46 (25) 1 (6) (13) (44) 78 173

Last 3 10 14 8 5 14 4 56 31 10 (3) 38 (33) 6 (5) (15) (47) 47 157

Last 5 w/o High

& Low 10 20 12 9 10 10 29 16 (0) (27) 5 (7) (12) 71 170

PERCENT CHANGE IN ENROLLMENT: YEAR TO YEAR TREND

Total

Change Birth-5 Total Total Total District

From to K K-1 to K K to 1 1 to 2 2 to 3 3 to 4 4 to 5 Elemen. 5 to 6 6 to 7 7 to 8 Middle 8 to 9 9 to 10 10 to 11 11 to 12 Sr High Enrollment

2003-04 9.2% 0.0% 18.8% 2.0% 5.9% 5.0% 6.0% 7.8% 7.1% 2.5% 11.1% 8.7% -1.3% -4.2% -7.6% -10.4% -1.2% 5.5%

2004-05 8.1% 0.0% 13.3% 0.4% 0.0% 4.7% 9.2% 5.1% 8.0% 4.7% 0.4% 1.4% 1.1% 6.3% 3.4% -7.7% 13.4% 6.3%

2005-06 9.8% 0.0% 14.8% 1.7% 11.8% 7.5% 10.3% 9.8% 8.8% 7.4% 3.0% 9.5% 3.6% 1.5% -2.5% -7.1% 6.9% 8.9%

2006-07 9.3% 0.0% 6.8% 6.8% 4.0% 4.9% 2.2% 7.9% 2.2% 3.4% 0.3% 1.0% -2.2% 3.1% -4.3% -16.8% 3.2% 4.9%

2007-08 8.0% 0.0% -2.4% -0.9% -2.2% 1.6% 3.0% 1.5% 6.1% 2.2% -0.7% 0.9% 2.1% -0.4% -7.9% -10.2% 5.4% 2.4%

2008-09 8.1% 0.0% 12.3% 4.0% 3.7% 2.3% 5.0% 5.0% 0.7% 6.5% 0.4% 2.7% -3.3% -5.1% -5.9% -2.8% 1.7% 3.6%

2009-10 8.8% 0.0% 10.1% 4.9% 4.2% 2.9% 6.1% 4.9% 10.7% 10.0% 8.9% 16.6% -6.4% 1.4% -0.4% -5.9% 1.1% 6.5%

2010-11 9.3% 0.0% 4.1% 6.6% 1.9% 6.9% 3.4% 6.1% 12.6% 5.4% -1.8% 4.6% -8.8% 1.5% -5.0% -8.9% 3.4% 5.0%

2011-12 9.3% 0.0% 3.7% 1.7% 0.5% 3.2% 0.8% 2.3% 9.9% 2.1% -1.8% 5.9% -9.9% 2.3% 1.9% -4.2% 4.1% 3.6%

2012-13 9.5% 0.0% 3.2% -1.5% 2.2% 1.1% -1.0% 0.4% 4.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.1% -9.1% 1.7% -0.6% -5.9% 5.6% 1.9%

Average Change:

Last 10 8.9% 6.1% 8.5% 2.6% 3.2% 4.0% 4.5% 5.1% 7.0% 4.4% 2.1% 5.3% -3.4% 0.8% -2.9% -8.0% 4.4% 4.9%

Last 5 9.0% 3.8% 6.7% 3.1% 2.5% 3.3% 2.8% 3.7% 7.6% 4.9% 1.4% 6.2% -7.5% 0.3% -2.0% -5.6% 3.2% 4.1%

Last 3 9.3% 3.0% 3.7% 2.3% 1.6% 3.7% 1.1% 2.9% 8.9% 2.6% -0.8% 3.9% -9.3% 1.8% -1.3% -6.3% 4.4% 3.5%

Source: Weld County School District Re-4 enrollment records as reported to the Colorado Department of Education, October 1 counts, years shown.

TABLE II-1. WELD COUNTY SCHOOL DISTRICT RE-4 HISTORICAL ENROLLMENT CHANGES BY GRADE: 2003 TO 2013

II-5

Strategic Resources West, Inc. 1/16/2014

II-6

As the graph below illustrates, the net change due to the difference between the out-goingtwelfth grade and entering Kindergarten classes has decreased in recent years:

Lesser growth at the lower grade levels impacts enrollment in upper grades by reducing the netenrollment change. Based on regional economic expectations and potential housing development inthe area, however, it is likely that Kindergarten class sizes will continue to outsize graduating classesas area births increase.

Births

Births are often viewed as a precursor of Kindergarten or first grade enrollment five to six yearslater. Over the last ten years, about nine percent of children born in Weld County reside in DistrictRe-4 boundaries. Weld County births increased from about 2,210 children born in 1990 to 3,845children born in 2012, growing 1,640 children or 74 percent. At the same time, District Re-4 birthsnearly tripled from about 100 children born in 1990 to 320 children born in 2012. On average,District Re-4’s Kindergarten classes have captured about 143 percent of District births, indicatinggrowth resulting from not only area births but in-migration as well:

II-7

The graph above illustrates a downward trend in the District’s capture rate. However, Kindergartenclass sizes have continued to exceed the number of births from five years prior. While births havetapered off in recent years, growth has continued with an influx of older in-migrants who havemoved into the area with older school age children.

District-wide Enrollment Projections

Based upon historical enrollment trends and mixed growth potential, three projectionscenarios are provided (see Table II-2). These three scenarios, along with projections by schoolshould assist with long-range facility planning. Detailed forecasts by scenario are provided inAppendix A.

Low scenario. This scenario is based upon average changes over the past three years in termsof absolute and percentage growth. The low scenario forecasts more aggressive growth from 2014to 2016 with continued but steady growth for the duration of the period. By 2014 enrollment isestimated to reach nearly 4,840 students and continue increasing to 5,280 students by 2019. Thismodel is most heavily influenced by the recession and recent years of slower growth.

Middle scenario. The moderate growth scenario presumes that enrollment growth over thenext several years will largely mirror the average rate of growth experienced over the past five yearsand anticipates 4,880 students in the District in the fall of 2014, up four percent from 2013. Thisscenario anticipates that enrollment would increase to about 5,390 students by 2017 and then begin

HIGH -- 10 Year Percent Change

Elemen. Middle Sr. High Elemen. Middle Sr. High Elemen. Middle Sr. High

Year (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Total (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Total (K-5) (6-8) (9-12) Total

2013 Actual 2,277 1,179 1,234 4,690

2014 2,317 1,214 1,306 4,838 2,348 1,219 1,313 4,880 2,350 1,224 1,314 4,888

2015 2,357 1,242 1,354 4,954 2,447 1,250 1,373 5,070 2,448 1,264 1,386 5,099

2016 2,421 1,271 1,413 5,106 2,516 1,273 1,455 5,243 2,593 1,302 1,482 5,378

2017 2,407 1,309 1,446 5,162 2,575 1,311 1,507 5,392 2,670 1,364 1,547 5,582

2018 2,391 1,355 1,480 5,227 2,631 1,352 1,553 5,536 2,765 1,421 1,606 5,792

2019 2,372 1,394 1,510 5,276 2,688 1,398 1,586 5,671 2,861 1,490 1,653 6,004

Note: The low scenario is based upon absolute changes over the most recent five years, the middle scenario applies cohort survival over the last three years,

and the changes for the high scenario use percent changes over the last ten years.

TABLE II-2. ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS SUMMARY BY SCENARIO — 2014 to 2019

SCENARIO

LOW -- 3 Year Percent MIDDLE -- 5 Year Cohort

PROJECTED:

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Strategic Resources West, Inc. 1/16/2014

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increasing to approximate 5,670 students by 2019. This anticipated increase is primarily attributableto the expectation of economic conditions improving and births increasing to drive elementaryenrollment.

High scenario. This alternative incorporates the rate of growth experienced over the past tenyears as the primary basis for forecasting the next five years. Under this scenario, fall 2014enrollment is expected to approach 4,890 students, growing to more than 5,580 students by 2017then continues growing to about 6,000 students by 2019. The high scenario is relatively optimisticcompared with recent history and anticipates increases averaging about 190 students per year orabout five percent annually.

In sum, 2014 enrollment is expected to increase overall with the potential for considerablegains at the elementary school level. Without substantial gains in both births and kindergartenenrollment, the potential exists for continued slower growth. The substantial variances in theforecast scenarios indicate a reasonable degree of volatility in the base data, at least partiallyattributable to the unstable economic conditions experienced in the last few years. Fluctuationsfrom the averages should be expected, as influenced by unforeseeable demographic changes andeconomic variations. The above expectations are all quite achievable. Based upon the economicand demographic conditions shown in Section I, enrollment between the low and middle growthscenarios is the preferred dataset to apply as a guide for facility planning purposes over the next fiveto ten years; such expectations are closely aligned with projections by individual school.

Enrollment Forecasts by School

Table II-3 summarizes annual enrollment projections by school from 2014 to 2019. Theseforecasts were performed independently from the other three scenarios and fall between the low andmiddle scenarios described above. The primary utility for this set of projections applies to relativegrowth among the schools as well as identifying areas of potential capacity shortages and possibleoptions. Detailed forecasts by school are provided in Appendix B.

Overall, the total student population is expected to increase considerably throughout theforecast period. Total elementary enrollment is anticipated to increase to more than 2,660 studentsby 2019 while middle school and high school enrollment are projected to approach 1,400 and 1,540,respectively, by 2019. Total K-12 enrollment in 2019 is forecast to approximate 5,600 students orabout 70 students less than the middle scenario above.

Development-Based Projections

Potential and historical residential development data provide the basis for estimating futurestudent enrollment upon build-out of all remaining residential property within the District.Historical student generation rates applied are based on housing unit data and student enrollmentdata from District Re-4. As a precaution, the calculated student generation rates may exhibitvariation in the number of students generated as they are based upon past information. It issuggested that the District periodically monitor student generation to ensure that the generationrates applied reflect the long-term enrollment potential and are adjusted for short-term aberrations.Table II-4 illustrates housing and student potential generated by planned residential developmentwithin each elementary school area. Given the patterns of varying development by housing typewithin each area, student yields vary substantially.

Considerable enrollment growth is expected in the Mountain View/Tozer and Range ViewElementary School areas from planned residential development in the City of Greeley and the Townof Severance. Overall, growth is expected to occur later in the period based on recent economic

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Table II-3. Enrollment Forecast Summary by School: 2014 to 2019

ActualSchools 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Elementary Schools:

Grandview 384 401 414 428 459 487 509

Tozer (Prim.) 381 375 387 405 413 441 447

Mountain View (Int.) 330 355 354 376 387 400 415

Range View 535 546 587 602 616 621 637

Skyview 352 327 342 353 356 356 358

Windsor Charter 295 296 294 291 296 293 295

Total K-5 2,277 2,300 2,377 2,455 2,526 2,597 2,661

Middle Schools:

Windsor Middle 608 632 624 615 628 636 666

Severance Middle 444 464 477 508 547 591 610

Windsor Charter 127 117 121 120 119 121 121

Total 6-8 1,179 1,213 1,222 1,242 1,294 1,349 1,396

Windsor Senior High 1,234 1,311 1,365 1,437 1,475 1,509 1,540

Total K-12 4,690 4,824 4,964 5,134 5,296 5,455 5,597

*: Based upon final October 1 count data.

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Table I-4. Student Enrollment Potential Based UponDevelopment Expectations: Annual 2014 to 2019 and Project

Completion

Additional Students Forecast by Year

By School Level 14 15 16 17 18 19Proj.

Comp.

Elementary (K-5):

Grandview 27 29 32 31 32 30 924

Mtn. View/Tozer 47 65 70 80 75 73 1,357

Rangeview 41 55 116 154 164 149 2,038

Skyview 3 3 4 4 4 4 330

Total 117 152 222 268 276 257 4,649

Middle (6-8):

Grandview 10 10 10 11 12 11 390

Mtn. View/Tozer 18 25 27 32 31 30 627

Rangeview 20 27 53 69 73 67 895

Skyview 1 1 2 2 2 2 144

Total 49 63 92 115 118 109 2,056

Sr. High (9-12):

Grandview 11 12 11 13 13 12 422

Mtn. View/Tozer 20 28 30 37 35 34 627

Rangeview 21 29 59 77 81 74 992

Skyview 1 1 2 2 2 2 164

Total 54 70 102 128 131 122 2,204

K-12 Total:

Grandview 48 51 54 55 57 53 1,736

Mtn. View/Tozer 85 119 127 149 141 137 2,611

Rangeveiw 82 111 227 299 319 290 3,924

Skyview 5 6 8 8 8 8 639

Total 220 286 417 511 525 488 8,910

Source: Strategic Resources West, Inc. interviews with planning staff from the threemunicipalities and Weld County plus area developers and home builders, July and August2013.

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conditions and trends in local housing construction. Upon completion of remaining residentialdevelopment (far right column), the Range View Elementary School area could generate nearly 2,880additional students. Completion of planned development in the Town of Severance is expected tooccur over the next ten to twenty years. Approximately 3,550 additional students could begenerated in the Mountain View/Tozer Elementary School area upon completion of planneddevelopment, including that in the City of Greeley. Significant residential development potentialexists in the District Re-4 portion of Greeley, most of which is expected to occur over the next fiftyyears. In 2013, an estimated 830 single family detached units were present in this area; by 2060 theCity expects 20,850 single family homes. Development is expected to occur more slowly in the earlyand late phases of this time frame. Significant potential residential development exists in theGrandview and Skyview Elementary School areas, though the Skyview area is more built out. Atbuild out, these areas could contribute about 1,730 and 540 additional students, respectively.Development in Grandview and Skyview could be realized more quickly as many of the projects inthese areas are currently underway.

In high growth areas, SRW typically observes a five to eight year lag in enrollment fromhousing development due to the time it takes families to become established. However, District Re-4 is characterized by older students, which may accelerate enrollment growth in the secondary gradesif families moving into the area already having young children.

Summary – Enrollment Forecasts

Based on recent economic and housing development trends, lower enrollment growth isexpected over the next few years. Through 2019, enrollment growth is expected to approach anannual average of approximately 3.2 percent or more than 150 students annually. Housingconstruction expectations appear quite optimistic based on the last few years of activity but, if theyrealized, enrollment influxes could well exceed this forecast. A considerable amount of housingdevelopment is expected in the Greeley and Windsor areas, but construction of projects in theseareas could take longer than expected to build out. Regardless, the District should continue toclosely monitor economic conditions and development activity as well as plan for capacityenhancements accordingly to reduce the transportation costs when appropriate.

Enrollment Forecasts vis-à-vis School Capacities

A comparison of enrollment forecasts with current capacities is provided in Table II-5. Thevalues highlighted indicate the first year that enrollment exceeds permanent facility capacity.Deficiencies are forecast first at the high school and then later in the period at the elementary andmiddle school levels. Although elementary and middle school capacities appear adequate for thenear term, these and the high school shortages should be at the forefront of planning efforts shouldgrowth accelerate sooner than expected. The District has many tasks to complete in order toadequately prepare for the impending construction of additional schools or building additions,including the following key factors:

acquiring and preparing sites; updating educational specifications to ensure spatial programming is adequate; working with applicable governmental agencies to obtain permits, etc. as required; assuring adequate time to get financing in place;

Perman.

Facility Actual

Schools Capacity 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013 2016 2019

Grandview 600 384 401 414 428 459 487 509 216 172 91

Mountain View 450 330 355 354 376 387 400 415 120 74 35

Tozer 450 381 375 387 405 413 441 447 69 45 3

Range View 600 535 546 587 602 616 621 637 65 (2) (37)

Skyview 450 352 327 342 353 356 356 358 98 97 92Windsor Charter 312 295 296 294 291 296 293 295 17 21 17

Total Elementary 2,862 2,277 2,300 2,377 2,455 2,526 2,597 2,661 585 407 201

Windsor Middle 700 608 632 624 615 628 636 666 92 85 34

Severance Middle 600 444 464 477 508 547 591 610 156 92 (10)Windsor Charter 156 127 117 121 120 119 121 121 29 36 36

Total Middle 1,456 1,179 1,213 1,222 1,242 1,294 1,349 1,396 277 214 60

Windsor Senior High 1,290 1,234 1,311 1,365 1,437 1,475 1,509 1,540 56 (147) (250)

Total K-12 4,690 4,824 4,964 5,134 5,296 5,455 5,597

Note: School capacities are for permanent facilities only, excluding portables, per RLH Engineering, Inc., April 11, 2006. Windsor Charter

School increased one classroom capacity (~24 students) each year through 2011.

Elementary Schools:

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Middle Schools:

Exceeds permanent facility capacity.

Table II-5. Enrollment Forecasts vis-à-vis Permanent Facility Capacity

Permanent Facility

Capacity Less

Enrollment

Strategic Resources West, Inc. 1/21/2014

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advising utility companies/entities about the timing of the need for their servicesand infrastructure; and

more.

SRW strongly advises the District to continue monitoring housing development and areademographics as these factors could influence the pace of growth, particularly in areas where highgrowth potential exists.

By 2014, enrollment at Windsor High School is forecast to exceed its current capacity. In2016, enrollment could exceed capacity by nearly 150 students and 250 students by 2019. Overall,the most pressing capacity shortage to address within the next few years is at the high school level.The forecast enrollment of 1,540 students in 2019 represents nearly 20 percent over capacity. Thisis the level at which additional space should be provided, for example a new school or a majorexpansion. As suggested in previous reports and updates, the District will likely need temporarycapacity-providing mechanisms, e.g. mobile classrooms to accommodate students. SeveranceMiddle School’s enrollment is forecast to exceed its design capacity by 2019; the other two middleschools appear to have adequate capacity for the forecast period. Range View Elementary School isexpected to experience seat shortages by 2016. Mountain View/Tozer appears to have adequatespace through the projection period but significant residential development potential exists in thisarea that could compromise capacity. Again, SRW advises carefully monitoring development anddemographics in this area. Proactive planning could help the District to mitigate costs and to avoidscheduling conflicts, class size differentials and other factors that can culminate from acceleratedgrowth.