were

March 24, 2011

nbkcapi ta l .com

QATAR elecTRiciTy And wATeR coMpAny

Stability

key dATA

Fair Value per share (QAR) 144.00Closing Price (QAR) * 129.7052-week High / Low (QAR) 136.30/101.00YTD / 12-month return 1.6%/25.7%P/E (TTM) 11.2Market Cap (QAR Millions) 12,970 Shares Outstanding (Millions) 100 Free Float 36%Reuters / Bloomberg QEWC.QA / QEWS QD

*As of March 24, 2011. Sources: Bloomberg and NBK Capital

key MeTRicS

2010A 2011F 2012F 2013FEPS (QAR) 11.6 12.2 13.0 13.9EPS Growth 26% 5% 7% 7%P/E 11.2 10.7 10.0 9.4Dividend Yield 5% 5% 5% 6%EV/EBITDA 13.2 11.5 10.9 10.8

Revenue (QAR Millions) 3,430 4,320 4,543 4,606Revenue Growth 29% 26% 5% 1%

EBITDA (QAR Millions) 1,883 2,175 2,286 2,312EBITDA Growth 36% 15% 5% 1%EBITDA Margin 55% 50% 50% 50%

Sources: Company financial statements and NBK Capital

QUARTeRly foRecASTS

QAR Millions 1Q2010A 4Q2010A 1Q2011F 2Q2011FRevenue 593 1,086 978 1,050 EBITDA 317 547 460 525

Source: NBK Capital

RebASed peRfoRMAnce

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

135

140

Mar-10 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11

MSCI Qatar Qatar Electricity

Sources: MSCI, Bloomberg, and NBK Capital

**Please refer to page 6 for recommendations and risk ratings.

HigHligHTS

fair Value: QAR 144

Recommendation: Accumulate – Risk level**: 2

Reason for Report: fy2010 Update

• Qatar Electricity and Water Company (QEWC) reported strongfinancial results for2010asthecompanyreceivedaboostfromnewcapacityadditionsandtheconsolidationof Ras Laffan Power Company (RLPC) in 4Q2010. Totalrevenue reached QAR 3.4 billion in FY2010, 29% above FY2009and9.5%aboveourforecasts.EBITDAincreasedby 33% in FY2010 to QAR 1.9 billion, a result that is ahead of our forecast by 13.8%.Moreover, net income stood atQAR 1.2 billion in FY2010, 23% above FY2009 and 2.9% belowourforecast.

• QEWCisaleadingutilitycompanyintheGulfCooperationCouncil (GCC) with long-term purchase agreements with Kharamaa, the sole distributor of electricity and water inQatar. Accordingly, QEWC has a stable revenue stream, as thecompanyisnotexposedtofluctuations indemandforelectricity and water. QEWC is a capacity provider and does not engage with the end-user, which makes the company a low-riskbusiness.Moreover,QEWChasbeenshieldedfromregional unrest, and operations remain normal.

• In 2010, QEWC saw major operational developments: a) the MesaieedPowerPlant(power-generatingcapacityof2,007MWh) became fully operational in 4Q2010, b) the firstphaseofRasGitras(whichwillbethelargestpowerplantinQatar upon completion) was completed, and c) ownership in RLPCincreasedfrom25%to80%.

• Weareforecastinga26%increaseinrevenuetoQAR4.3billion forQEWC in2011,mainlydrivenbynewcapacityadditions and the full consolidation of RLPC. On anoperational level, we are forecasting EBITDA to grow by15.5% to QAR 2.2 billion in 2011, while we are expecting a dropintheEBITDAmarginfrom54.9%in2010to50.3%in2011(mostlyduetotheaccountingtreatmentofthenewplantsasfinanceleases).

• QEWC remains a good dividend play. In 2010, the company announced a higher-than-expected dividend payment ofQAR6per share,9%above our forecast ofQAR5.5pershare,and20%aheadoflastyear’spayment.Thistranslatesinto a dividend payout of 52% and a dividend yield of4.6%.For2011,weareexpectingadividendpaymentof QAR6.5pershare,whichhasanimpliedyieldof5%.OurnewfairvalueofQAR144pershareforQEWCrepresentsan11%upsidepotentialfromthelastclosingprice(March24,2011);hence,ournewrecommendationforthestockis “Accumulate.”

Analysts

Samir Murad, CFA

T. +965 2259 5145E. [email protected]

Wadie Khoury

T. +965 2259 5118E. [email protected]

http://www.nbkcapital.com

Utilities – Qatar Electricity and Water CompanyMarch 24, 2011

nbkcapi ta l .com | 2

VAlUATion

Our12-monthfairvalueestimateforQEWC’ssharepriceincreasedby10%andcurrentlystandsatQAR144per share. The fair valuederived from thediscounted cashflow (DCF) valuationincreasedby13%whilethevaluegeneratedfromthepeercomparisonmethodsawadeclineof2%.Giventhatourfairvalueestimateis11%abovethelatestmarketprice,ourrecommendationforQEWCis“Accumulate.”

Figure 1 Fair Value per Share

Weight Value Weight Value

Discountedcashflow 80% QAR 129 80% QAR 146 13%

Peer comparison 20% QAR 136 20% QAR 133 -2%

Weighted average fair value 100% QAR 131 100% QAR 144 10%

Valuation MethodOld New

Change

Source: NBK Capital

Strong financial performance in 2010 comes in higher than expected

QatarElectricityandWaterCompany(QEWC)reportedstronger-than-expectedfinancialresultsforFY2010. Total revenue reached QAR 3.4 billion in FY2010, 29% above FY2009 and 9.5% above ourforecasts,primarilyduetonewcapacitythatcameonlinein4Q2010andtheconsolidationoftheRasLaffanPowerCompany(RLPC).

The power generation and water desalination operations continued to show strong growth in revenueforFY2010;eachgrewby19%.However,thehighestgrowthcamefromleaseincome,whichmorethandoubledduetotheaccountingtreatmentofthenewplantsasfinanceleases.Asaresult,leaseincome’scontributiontorevenueincreasedfrom7.7%in2009to15.1%in2010.

At the operating level, the company reported 33% year-on-year growth in EBITDA to QAR 1.9 billioninFY2010,aresultthatisaheadofourforecastofQAR1.6billionby13.8%.Moreover,netincomestoodatQAR1.2billioninFY2010,23%aboveFY2009and2.9%belowourforecast.

QEWCcontinues todemonstrate itsability togeneratestrongcashflowfromoperations.CashflowfromoperationsremainedpositiveatQAR1.2billionin2010,slightlylowerthanQAR1.3billion in 2009.

Figure 2 Income Statement

2009 2010 YoY FY2009 FY2010

Electricity 1,515,516 1,801,027 19% 57% 53%Water 931,294 1,110,739 19% 35% 32%Lease Income from Plants 204,058 518,468 154% 8% 15%

Sales 2,650,868 3,430,234 29% 100% 100%CostofGoodsSold (1,535,409) (1,891,517) 23% -58% -55%Gross Profit 1,115,459 1,538,717 38% 42% 45%General and Admin. Expenses (162,504) (166,652) 3% -6% -5%ShareofProfitsfromAssociates 46,619 31,946 -31% 2% 1%EBITDA 1,408,230 1,866,817 33% 53% 54%Depreciation 408,656 462,806 13% 15% 13%EBIT 999,574 1,404,011 40% 38% 41%Finance Cost (194,466) (465,618) 139% -7% -14%Other 139,766 228,472 63%Net Income 944,874 1,166,865 23% 36% 34%

QAR '000

Full Year Common Size

Source: QEWC

Our new 12-month fair value

for QEWC is QAR 144

Power generation and water

desalination operations

continued to show strong

growth in revenue; however,

the highest growth came from

lease income




Qewc has been shielded from regional unrest, and operations remain normal

QatarhasnotbeenaffectedbytheunrestthathasswepttheMiddleEastandNorthAfrica(MENA)region. Thus, QEWC,which operates solely inQatar, has been shielded from the geopoliticaleventsthathavebeentakingplacesincetheonsetof2011.QEWCisresponsibleforgeneratingpower and desalinizing water in Qatar, with long-term purchase agreements with Kahramaa (the government entity responsible for distributing electricity andwaterwithinQatar). As a result,QEWChasasecurerevenuestreamandcashflowfromoperationsthatarenotexposedtothefluctuationsindemandforelectricityandwater.Moreover,54%ofthecompanyisownedbytheGovernmentofQatar(directandindirectstake),whichfurtherstrengthensthecompany’spositionin the local market.

Major developments in Qewc’s portfolio in 2010

In 2010, QEWC saw major developments in its operations: a) the Mesaieed Power Plant (power- generatingcapacityof2,007MWh)becamefullyoperationalin4Q2010,b)thefirstphaseofRasGitras (which will be the largest power plant in Qatar upon completion) was completed, and c) theownershipstakeintheRasLaffanPowerCompany(RLPC)increasedfrom25%to80%.Onaproportionalbasis,thesepowerplantsadded2,040MWhofelectricity,bringingQEWC’stotalpower-generatingcapacity (onaproportionalbasis) to5,471MWh.RasGitras, thefinalplantinthecompany’spipeline, isexpectedtobeinauguratedin2Q2011andraisethecompany’sproportionate power-generating capacity to 5,875 MWh.

Market Update – power Surplus in Qatar

According toMEED’sArabianPowerandWaterMarketReport for2011,Qatar is the fastest-growingpowermarketintheregionwith7,900MWhofcapacityandareservemarginof36%(the reservemargin ismeasuredagainstpeakdemand for electricity).MEEDdata shows thatpeak power demand in Qatar increased by 12% in 2010 to 5,095 MWh. However, Kharamaa forecasts thatQatar’sexistingpowercapacity issufficient tomeet futuredemanduntil2015.MEEDexpectsthatanewfacilitywith2,000MWhcapacitymaybetenderedin2011,forwhichconstructionwillbeginin2013.WeexpectthatQEWCwillbepartofaconsortiumthatisawardedthecontractforthenewfacility,asisthecaseforallpreviouspowerprojectsinQatar.Allofourrevenueforecastsarebasedonexistingprojects.WedidnotincludeanygreenfieldprojectsthatQEWC has expressed interest in, such as expanding into countries outside Qatar. We will begin to incorporatenewcapacityintoourforecastoncetheprojectsareformallyannounced.

2011 forecasts

Weareforecastinga26%increaseinrevenuetoQAR4.3billionforQEWCin2011,mainlydrivenbynewcapacityadditionsandthefullconsolidationofRLPC.However,in2011,weexpectleaseincomefromplantstoshowthelargestgrowthinrevenueduetothefullimpactoftheMesaieedPowerPlantandRLPC.Moreover, thecompletionofRasGitras in2Q2011providesa furtherboosttoleaseincomein2011.Asaresult,weareforecasting80%growthinleaseincomein2011,whichincreasesthesegment’scontributiontorevenuefrom15.1%in2010to22%in2011.

Onanoperationallevel,weareforecastingEBITDAtogrowby15.5%toQAR2.2billionin2011,whileweareexpectingadropintheEBITDAmarginfrom54.9%in2010to50.3%in2011.The450-basispointdropintheEBITDAmarginstemsmostlyfromtheaccountingtreatmentofthenewplantsasfinanceleases.




AllofQEWC’splantsarebuiltbyusingprojectfinancing;whereby,interestiscapitalizedduringtheconstructionphase.AsaresultofthecompletionofQEWCprojects,weareexpectinginterestexpense to jump 38% in 2011. In our opinion, this increase will limit net income growth to 4.6% in2011,withthenetincomemargindroppingto28%in2011from33.9%in2010.

A higher-than-expected dividend payment for 2010

The long-term take-or-pay agreements with Kahramaa have enabled QEWC to consistently produce positivecashflowfromoperationsandincreasedividendpaymentsonayearlybasis.QEWChasrepeatedly increased dividend payments by QAR 0.5 per share between 2006 and 2009 to reach QAR 5 per share in 2009. In 2010, the company announced a higher-than-expected dividend payment ofQAR6per share,9%above our forecast ofQAR5.5per share, and20%aheadof lastyear’spayment.This translates intoadividendpayoutof52%andadividendyieldof4.6%.Webelievethatthehigher-than-expecteddividendpayoutwasaresultofthenearingofthecompletionQEWC’splannedcapacityexpansions (RasGitras is the lastconfirmedprojectinQEWC’spipeline).Forourforecasts,wehaveassumedthatQEWCwillreverttoitspreviousdividendpolicyofincreasingdividendsinincrementsofQAR0.50peryear.

Figure 3 Dividend Payout

3.54.0

4.55.0

6.0

45%

65%

59%

53%52%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

QA

R

Dividend Per Share [LHS] Payout Ratio Ratio [RHS]

Source: QEWC and NBK Capital

The company announced a

higher-than-expected dividend

payment of QAR 6 per share

in 2010




finAnciAl STATeMenTS

Balance Sheet (QA R M i l l io ns )

Fiscal Year Ends December 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

ASSETS

Cash 2,307 2,074 1,218 1,430 1,478 1,834 1,651

Receivables 432 1,454 691 727 737 747 757

Total Inventory 274 295 331 348 354 360 366

Finance Lease Receivable 3,848 11,836 13,105 12,890 12,658 12,408 12,138

Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Net 10,664 5,974 7,308 6,988 6,688 8,261 9,750

Long Term Investments 275 358 358 358 358 358 358

Goodwill and Intangilbes - 133 133 133 133 133 133

Other Long-Term Assets, Total 247 - - - - - -

TOTAL ASSETS 18,048 22,123 23,143 22,874 22,406 24,100 25,152

LIABILITIES & EQUITY

Accounts Payable 1,667 2,315 2,313 1,932 1,691 1,457 1,441

Short-Term Debt 668 1,513 1,147 1,103 1,028 1,131 1,178

Other Current Liabilities 1,209 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813 1,813

Long-Term Debt 10,823 12,446 13,190 12,680 11,824 13,009 13,551

Minority Interest - 176 186 190 194 197 201

Other Liabilities 92 98 114 130 144 161 180

Total Liabilities 14,458 18,361 18,764 17,848 16,695 17,769 18,365

Total Equity 3,590 3,763 4,380 5,026 5,711 6,331 6,787

TOTAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY 18,048 22,123 23,143 22,874 22,406 24,100 25,152

Historical Forecast

Income Statement (QA R M i l l io ns )


Total Revenue 2,651 3,430 4,320 4,543 4,606 4,669 4,733

Operating expenses (1,265) (1,547) (2,145) (2,257) (2,294) (2,329) (2,366)

Depreciation/Amortization (409) (463) (466) (470) (450) (527) (611)

Operating Income 977 1,421 1,708 1,816 1,862 1,812 1,756

Interest (Expense) Income (54) (331) (552) (579) (536) (501) (558)

Other (1) 77 82 82 82 82 82

Minority Interest - (4) (22) (23) (23) (23) (24)

Net Income 922 1,163 1,217 1,296 1,385 1,370 1,256

Historical Forecast

Cash Flow Statement (QA R M i l l io ns )


Cash from Operating Activities 1,525 1,674 1,630 2,067 2,288 2,339 2,604

Cash from Investing Activities (3,954) (1,996) (1,656) (16) (14) (1,955) (1,950)

Cash from Financing Activities 3,120 90 (831) (1,839) (2,226) (29) (837)

Historical Forecast

Sources: Company’s financial statements and NBK Capital




RiSk And RecoMMendATion gUide

RecoMMendATion UpSide (downSide) poTenTiAl

BUY MORE THAN 20%

ACCUMULATE BETWEEN 5% AND 20%

HOLD BETWEEN -10% AND 5%

REDUCE BETWEEN -25% AND -10%

SELL LESS THAN -25%

RiSk leVel

low RiSk HigH RiSk

1 2 3 4 5

diSclAiMeR

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Kuwait

National Bank of Kuwait SAKAbdullah Al-Ahmed StreetP.O.Box95,Safat13001Kuwait City, KuwaitT. +965 2242 2011F. +965 2243 1888Telex:22043-22451NATBANK

inTeRnATionAl neTwoRk

Bahrain

National Bank of Kuwait SAKBahrain BranchSeefTower,Al-SeefDistrictP.O. Box 5290, Manama, BahrainT. +973 17 583 333F. +973 17 587 111

Saudi Arabia

National Bank of Kuwait SAKJeddah BranchAl-Andalus Street, Red Sea PlazaP.O. Box 15385Jeddah 21444, Saudi ArabiaT. +966 2 653 8600F. +966 2 653 8653

United Arab Emirates

National Bank of Kuwait SAKDubai BranchSheikh Rashed Road, Port Saeed Area, ACICO Business ParkP.O. Box 88867, DubaiUnited Arab EmiratesT. +971 4 2929 222F. +971 4 2943 337

Jordan

National Bank of Kuwait SAKHead OfficeAl Hajj Mohd Abdul Rahim StreetHijazi Plaza, Building # 70P.O.Box 941297,Amman -11194, JordanT. +962 6 580 0400F. +962 6 580 0441

Lebanon

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Iraq

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United States of America

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