WESTAR Regional Haze 2018 SIP Planning

Karin Landsberg

Alaska DEC, Air Quality

November 2013

Assignment

• Prepare a comprehensive project plan for 2018 regional haze SIPs

• Identify– Steps– Timeline– Resources

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Background

• Next round of Regional Haze SIPs are due in 2018

• Workgroup meeting every 2 weeks since August – Identify the regional technical work and associated

policy issues

• Work products– Overview flow chart (completed)– Excel Timeline (completed)– Narrative plan (in progress)

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Technical Worko Reevaluate/recalculate natural conditions• Reasonable progress analysis similar to 5-year progress reports• Sector emission inventories for baseline, 2018, 2028

– Need consistency between states and years to compareo Special emission inventory studies

o Oil and Gaso Canada and Mexicoo Marine/Offshore/Globalo Dusto Wildfire averageo Ammonia

• Regional modeling analyses– Meteorological, emission, dispersion and chemistry

• Four-factor analysis for source categories

4 Must haves, Nice to haves

Timeline Overview

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*General guidance from EPA to cover•Developing how to develop long-term strategy “post-BART”•Integrating NAAQS planning with RH planning•Clarification about controllable/non-controllable sources, e.g., fire

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

5/17Regional Work Completed

1/15Need 4-Factor Guidance from EPA

7/13 - 12/13Develop Plan

7/17 - 8/17FLM

1/14 - 3/15Inventories and Studies

5/17 - 7/18State Adoption Process

6/16 - 3/17Progress Updates & Finalize Controls

1/14 - 3/14Identify Studies

1/15 - 12/16Modeling & 4-Factor Analysis

7/18Submit SIPs to EPA

7/13Planning Work Started

7/14General Guidance from EPA*

11/13Funding?

Core Issues

1. Simplify Progress Report Requirements– not as SIP revision

2. Natural Conditions and Reasonable Progress Goals

3. Long-term Strategies after BART– 4-Factor Analysis

4. Integrate Planning– relationship with NAAQS planning

5. Consideration of visitation6

Funding

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• 2000-2007 WRAP funding = $23.1 M• 2003-2006 WRAP expenditures – 80% technical and related policy work– 20% for staff, travel, meetings, calls, overhead

• Expect can do it for much less this time– Not yet sure exactly how much is needed– May need to evaluate what can be done with

given funding levels

Funding

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Major Work Areas Basic * Value-added

IMPROVE Monitoring Data Analysis

Revised 2064 Natural Conditions targets

Analysis of Baseline Emissions Year (2008 or 2011), 2018 controls on-the-books, 2028 projections

Emissions control analysis projects (4-factor, others)

Regional modeling using EPA projection guidance for 2028 reasonable progress targets for SIPs

Improvements to Technical Support System to support State Plans

Staff + Project Management (travel, meetings, etc.)

Total

*Minimum Regional Costs to Develop 2018 Haze Plans

Policy and Funding Issues

• Uncertainty of EPA actions – what and when– Rule revisions and/or guidance– Responses to Core Issues presented in August

• Funding?– How will budget affect work plan

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Next Steps

• For timeline workgroup– Complete plan in next few months– Review funding available and revise plan as needed

• For regional analysis work– Decide if region will reconsider natural conditions– Immediately start emission inventories and special

studies – In absence of EPA guidance, develop approach for 4-

factor analysis “beyond BART,” and NAAQS integration • Propose several small work groups to address specific issues

– Natural conditions– 4-factor analysis post-BART– NAAQS integration

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Thank you!

• Al Newman (WA)• Anya Caudill (WA)• Bob Lebens (WESTAR)• Brian Finneran (OR)• Clint Bowman (WA)• Colleen Delaney (UT)• Curt Taipale (CO)• Jeni Cederle (WY)• Lisa Tomczak (AZ)

• Mark Berger (UT)• Tina Suarez-Murias (CA)• Tom Moore (WRAP)• Patrick Barickman (UT)• Rick Boddicker (SD)• Ryan Templeton (AZ)• And anyone I may have

forgotten

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Contact Info

Karin LandsbergNon-Point Section Manager

Air Quality Division

Department of Environmental Conservation

907-269-4913

karin.landsberg@alaska.gov

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