western wind and solar integration study debbie lew national renewable energy laboratory swat/ccpg...
TRANSCRIPT
Western Wind and Solar Integration Study
Debbie Lew
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
SWAT/CCPG Meeting
Aug 22, 2007
Overview
• How can utilities manage the incremental variability and uncertainty of wind and solar?
• Do geographically diverse wind/solar resources reduce variability and increase transmission utilization?
• How do local wind/solar resources compare to out-of-state resources in terms of load correlation or cost?
• How can hydro help with wind/solar integration?• The role and value of wind forecasting• Can balancing area cooperation help manage the
variability?• How do wind and solar contribute to reliability and capacity
value?
To support multi-state interests in understanding the operating and cost impacts due to the variability and uncertainty of wind and solar power on the grid
Tasks• Data Collection
– Wind and solar mesoscale modeling– Utility load, generator, transmission data
• Preliminary Analysis– Extensive statistical analysis with various options for wind/solar
sites and transmission• Scenario Development
– In-state vs out-of-state resources– Geographically diverse resources– Mega projects– Best correlated with load
• Run Scenarios– Examine costs due to regulation, load following, unit
commitment– “Dives” to investigate issues such as Hoover– Examine mitigation strategies/options– Determine contributions to reliability and capacity value
• Draft and Final Report
Current Status
• Held Stakeholder Meeting• Utilities working on data collection• Subcontracts for wind meso-scale
modeling and utility simulation and analysis being processed. Solar will be next.
• Updates and information posted on WestConnect website
• Next stakeholder meeting mid-2008
Kick-off Stakeholder Meeting• Held at NREL 5/23/07 with 56 participants• Revisions to study scope
– Study footprint to include most of WestConnect– Statistical analysis for 10, 20, 30% wind penetration (by energy),
with results determining what levels to conduct simulations – Timing doesn’t allow this to feed into Virtual Control Area project– Intra-hour variability will be analyzed with a validated spreadsheet
approach instead of PSLF runs– Costs of renewables or benefits from renewables - will separate out
variability/uncertainty costs from market competition effects– Transmission scenarios will be rough (crayon level) – Establish hydro task force
• Study completion to be pushed back to accommodate revisions
LEGEND
WestConnect LinesCalifornia LinesLADWP LinesDC Lines
Revised Study Footprint
Control areas:APSEl Paso Nevada Power PNM Sierra Pacific SRPTristateTucson XcelWAPA
Wind and Solar Mesoscale Modeling
• Model wind power output for 300 GW of wind farms in Western Interconnection– 10 min averages, 2 km grid, 80-100m hub height
• Solar data - 2006 needs to be modeled– Hourly averages, 10 km grid
• Mesomodeling data will be made publicly available when completed
• We are requesting measurements of wind and solar data to validate our mesomodeling
Schedule
Kickoff Stakeholder Meeting 5/23/07
Data Collection Jun-Dec ’07
Wind/solar mesoscale modeling Oct ‘07-May ’08
Preliminary Analysis Feb-Jun ’08
Prelim. results stakeholder mtg Jul ’08
Production Cost Modeling Jul ’08-Jan ’09
Interim Technical Results mtg Dec ’09
Draft report Feb ’09
Draft results Stakeholder mtg Mar ’09
Final Report Apr ‘09
For more information
• Debbie Lew
• NREL
• 303-384-7037
• http://westconnect.com/init_wwis.php