westport initiating coverage 211013 - i3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · ct6 mac 2013 0.6 9.5 ct7...

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KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES 21 October 2013 | Initiating Coverage Westport Bhd Recommend NEUTRAL A prime transhipment hub plying on growing SEA traffic Target Price (TP): RM2.56 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Initiating coverage with NEUTRAL recommendation. Target price of RM2.56 is derived from Dividend Discount method (DDM) with required equity return of 7.4% and growth rate of 4.0%. A transhipment hub. Located at Port Klang, Westport is strategically positioned along the main shipping lane of Straits of Malacca. It is a major transhipment container hub in the region, competing directly with Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) and Port of Singapore. Breakneck container throughput growth in last 10 years. Westport had achieved a CAGR of 13.2% for its container throughput in 2002- 2012, outpacing the global container growth of 8.3%. Moving forward, it is expected to benefit from the continual container traffic growth in Southeast Asia (SEA) region. Nonetheless its overall container throughput is expected to grow at more tepid pace. Based on the next 3 years container throughput expected CAGR of 5.3% (estimate by Drewry Maritime Advisors), the SEA is poised to overtake Western Europe to become the world’s second busiest container shipping region. Competitive tariff and high operating efficiency. Westport’s container throughput hit 6.9m TEUs in FY12, representing circa 33% of container traffic in Malaysia. Generally, the transhipment container is more price elastic than laden container. Thus, Westport maintains a competitive transhipment tariff which is 51% lower than Port of Singapore. Also, its high operating efficiency enables Westport to routinely achieve 35 moves per crane per hour for typical large vessels, promising faster transhipment operations. Holding long term concession until 2054. In 1994, Westport was awarded first concession to operate the port operation for 30 years. After negotiations with government, Westport obtained conditional extension to its concession for another 30 years until 2054, which is important for the long term development of its port business. Construction of CT7 for port expansion. Westport is expected to lift its port handling capacity from 9.5m TEUs to 11.0m TEUs per annum with the completion of container terminal 7 (CT7) by 2015. The increased port capacity will help to meet its long term growth container handling demand and maintain its port handling efficiency. A decent dividend stock play with moderate growth prospect. Riding on the steady growth of SEA’s container traffic, Westport’s container throughput is estimated to grow by 5.5% per annum. Consequently, the increased container handling volume is expected to boost Westport’s net profit by +18.4% to RM427.5m in FY15 as compared to FY12. Based on its 75% PAT dividend payout policy, we are expecting DPS of 8.7sen and 9.4sen for FY14 and FY15, translating into dividend yield of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively, based on its IPO price. Our TP of RM2.56 is derived from DDM method with a required equity return of 7.4% and growth rate of 4.0%, implying 22x FY14-P/E. RETURN STATS Price (18 October 2013) RM2.65 Target Price RM2.56 Expected Share Price Return -3.4% Expected Dividend Yield +3.5% Expected Total Return -0.1% STOCK INFO KLCI 1,799.59 Bursa / Bloomberg 5246 / WPRTS MK Board / Sector Main/ Trading Services Syariah Compliant Yes Issued shares (mil) 3,410.0 Par Value (RM) 0.10 Market cap. (RM’m) 9,036.5 Price over NA 5.5x 52-wk price Range n.a. Beta (against KLCI) n.a. 3-mth Avg Daily Vol n.a. 3-mth Avg Daily Value n.a. Major Shareholders PRSB 43.3% Hutchison Port Hld. 24.4% Khazanah 5.0%

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Page 1: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

KINDLY REFER TO THE LAST PAGE OF THIS PUBLICATION FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES

21 October 2013 | Initiating Coverage

Westport Bhd Recommend NEUTRAL

A prime transhipment hub plying on growing SEA traffic Target Price (TP): RM2.56

INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS

• Initiating coverage with NEUTRAL recommendation.

• Target price of RM2.56 is derived from Dividend Discount

method (DDM) with required equity return of 7.4% and growth

rate of 4.0%.

A transhipment hub. Located at Port Klang, Westport is strategically

positioned along the main shipping lane of Straits of Malacca. It is a

major transhipment container hub in the region, competing directly with

Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP) and Port of Singapore.

Breakneck container throughput growth in last 10 years. Westport

had achieved a CAGR of 13.2% for its container throughput in 2002-

2012, outpacing the global container growth of 8.3%. Moving forward, it

is expected to benefit from the continual container traffic growth in

Southeast Asia (SEA) region. Nonetheless its overall container

throughput is expected to grow at more tepid pace. Based on the next 3

years container throughput expected CAGR of 5.3% (estimate by

Drewry Maritime Advisors), the SEA is poised to overtake Western

Europe to become the world’s second busiest container shipping region.

Competitive tariff and high operating efficiency. Westport’s container

throughput hit 6.9m TEUs in FY12, representing circa 33% of container

traffic in Malaysia. Generally, the transhipment container is more price

elastic than laden container. Thus, Westport maintains a competitive

transhipment tariff which is 51% lower than Port of Singapore. Also, its

high operating efficiency enables Westport to routinely achieve 35

moves per crane per hour for typical large vessels, promising faster

transhipment operations.

Holding long term concession until 2054. In 1994, Westport was

awarded first concession to operate the port operation for 30 years.

After negotiations with government, Westport obtained conditional

extension to its concession for another 30 years until 2054, which is

important for the long term development of its port business.

Construction of CT7 for port expansion. Westport is expected to lift

its port handling capacity from 9.5m TEUs to 11.0m TEUs per annum

with the completion of container terminal 7 (CT7) by 2015. The

increased port capacity will help to meet its long term growth container

handling demand and maintain its port handling efficiency.

A decent dividend stock play with moderate growth prospect.

Riding on the steady growth of SEA’s container traffic, Westport’s

container throughput is estimated to grow by 5.5% per annum.

Consequently, the increased container handling volume is expected to

boost Westport’s net profit by +18.4% to RM427.5m in FY15 as

compared to FY12. Based on its 75% PAT dividend payout policy, we

are expecting DPS of 8.7sen and 9.4sen for FY14 and FY15, translating

into dividend yield of 3.5% and 3.8% respectively, based on its IPO

price. Our TP of RM2.56 is derived from DDM method with a required

equity return of 7.4% and growth rate of 4.0%, implying 22x FY14-P/E.

RETURN STATS

Price (18 October 2013) RM2.65

Target Price RM2.56

Expected Share Price Return

-3.4%

Expected Dividend Yield +3.5%

Expected Total Return -0.1%

STOCK INFO

KLCI 1,799.59

Bursa / Bloomberg 5246 /

WPRTS MK

Board / Sector Main/ Trading

Services

Syariah Compliant Yes

Issued shares (mil) 3,410.0

Par Value (RM) 0.10

Market cap. (RM’m) 9,036.5

Price over NA 5.5x

52-wk price Range n.a.

Beta (against KLCI) n.a.

3-mth Avg Daily Vol n.a.

3-mth Avg Daily Value n.a.

Major Shareholders

PRSB 43.3%

Hutchison Port Hld. 24.4%

Khazanah 5.0%

Page 2: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

2

COMPANY BACKGROUND

A prime transhipment hub. Westport Holdings Bhd (WHB), a leading port operator located in Pulau Indah, Port

Klang. It handles containerised and conventional cargo as well as providing a broad range of marine and port

services. Positioned strategically along the sea lane of the Straits of Malacca, Westport emerges as a competent

transhipment hub, with its main rivals consist of Port of Singapore and Port of Tanjung Pelepas (PTP). Northport is

also harboured in Port Klang, with its core business mainly focuses on the laden container.

Maintaining competitive pricing to entice higher transhipment traffic. For the period of FY2002-12, Westport had

achieved a CAGR of 13.2%, consistently higher than the growth of global gross container throughput with a CAGR of

8.3%. In FY12, its container throughput reached 6.9m TEUs, representing circa 33% of container traffic in Malaysia.

Normally, the transhipment throughput is more price sensitive than laden throughput. Thus, maintaining a low tariff per

move is the key attraction of Westport to continue to grow its throughput volume. The published tariff rate in Port

Klang is regulated by Port Klang Authority (PKA). For 20” transhipment box, the Westport’s tariff rate is lower than

PTP and Port of Singapore by 29% and 51% respectively.

Lifting port capacity with the construction of CT7. The planned construction of container terminal 7 (CT7) is

expected to increase the port handling capacity of Westport from 9.5m to 11.0m TEUs per annum by 2015. The port

expansion is essential to avoid port congestion as it is running out of port capacity. Unlike the space constraint that is

faced by Northport, Westport can further boost its port capacity with the construction of CT8-9 which gives the latter

another 5m TEUs capacity. Nonetheless, the commencement of CT8-9 constructions will much depend on the market

conditions in the future.

Construction schedule of container terminal

Terminal Expected

Completion date

Increase in

handling capacity

Enlarged Capacity 'm

TEUs)

CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5

CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5

CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0

CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0

Schedule of reclamation & incidental works

Terminal Expected Completion date

CT7 Sept 2013

CT8 Dec 2013

CT9 Dec 2013

Source: Company, MIDFR

INVESTMENT STATISTICS

FYE Dec FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F FY15F

Revenue (RM’ m) 1,387.4 1,492.3 1,646.8 1,663.6 1,724.5

Core revenue (RM’m) 1,115.3 1,226.2 1,320.8 1,444.6 1,574.5

EBITDA (RM’n) 528.0 597.6 642.8 662.2 714.3

PBT (RM’m) 365.1 434.7 502.3 482.7 509.0

Net Profit (RM' m) 316.5 361.0 411.9 395.8 427.5

EPS (sen) 9.3 10.6 12.1 11.6 12.5

EPS growth (%) 11.1 14.1 14.1 (3.9) 8.0

PER (x) 28.6 25.0 21.9 22.8 21.1

Net Dividend (sen) 5.9 29.6 9.1 8.7 9.4

Source: Company, Forecasts by MIDFR

Page 3: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

3

Holding long term concession until 2054. Initially, Westport held the port concession to operate the port operation

for a period of 30 years until 2024. Through the subsequent negotiations with government, its port concession is now

extendable for another 30 years until 2054 but subject to these two conditions: (i) completion of reclamation of land

and incidental works for CT6-9 by 1 January 2014 and (ii) completion of CT6 to be fully operational by 1 January

2014. Currently, the second condition has been fulfilled with the construction work for CT6 already completed and

commenced operation. Whilst the land reclamation and incidental works for CT8 and CT9 are 91% completed as at

June 2013 and are expected to meet the first condition.

KEY MANAGEMENT TEAM

Name & Designation Background

Tan Sri Datuk Gnanalingam a/l Gunanath Lingam

Executive Chairman

• Founder of WHB.

• Appointed as executive chairman since 2000.

• Bachelor Arts degree from University of Malaya.

• Sat on National PEMUDAH committee from 2007-2012.

Ruben Emir Gnanalingam Bin Abdullah

Chief Executive Officer

• Eldest son of Tan Sri Datuk Gnanalingam.

• Appointed as CEO since 2009.

• Bachelor degree in Economics from London School of Economics and Political Science.

Muhammad Abdullah Hatta Bin Bulat

Chief Financial Officer

• Joined WMSB in 2007 and appointed as CFO in 2010

• Attached to DRB-HICOM in 2000 to oversee restructuring and fund raising activities

• Registered public accountant with Malaysian Institute of Accountants

Ahmad Damanhury Bin Ibrahim

Head of Port Projects

• Joined WMSB in 1995 and assumed his present position in 2007

• Held as a project engineer in Subang airport and KLIA projects

• Members of IEM and BEM since 1991 and 1990 respectively.

Source: Company, MIDFR

Location of Westport

Page 4: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

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Source: Company, MIDFR

A glimpse of Westport’s competitive strengths:

• Strong expansion potential with current capacity stands at 9.5m TEUs and is expandable to 11.0m TEUs

once completion of CT7 by 2015. (Construction of CT8 and CT9 would further enhance the capacity to

circa 16.0m TEUs per annum)

• Larger capacity would enhance the optimization level in handling the containers

• High operating efficiency with 35 Moves Per Hour per crane for large vessels

• Established global and regional connectivity to >350 ports around the world

• Capabilities in handling the world largest vessel of up to 18k TEUs

• Convenient access to PKFZ with integrated 405 hectare custom-free commercial and industrial zone

• Well-accessible by Railway network and nearby highways including KESAS and PLUS highways

• Demand in import/export containers supported by nearby industries hinterland, including Shah Alam

Industrial region

Source: Company, MIDFR

Page 5: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

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A glimpse of Westport’s favourite geographic attributes:

• 12 nautical miles deviation from 800km main shipping route which stretch along the Straits of Malacca

• A protected harbour, with naturally sheltered by Pulau Che Mat Zin

• Natural deep harbour and a total of 25 berths with an aggregate length of circa 6,642 metres.

• A total of 18 berths are connected in a straight line which is lengthening 4.8km to allow for greater

flexibility in berthing vessels

• Central gateway of Central of Peninsular Malaysia, hinterland to distribute the import and export goods

• SEA – a fast growing and 3rd

busiest region (handled 87.2m TEUs in FY12, Drewry Maritime Advisors

forecasts that the volume of total containers handled in SEA to overtake Western Europe by 2015)

Source: Company, MIDFR

Segmental Business

Source: Company, MIDFR

Corporate group structure

MOF: Ministry of Finance WHB: Westport Holding Bhd WMSB: Westport Malaysia Sdn Bhd VTCM Vehicle Transit Centre (M) Sdn Bhd (in liquation)

Source: Company, MIDFR

Page 6: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

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INDUSTRY PROSPECT

SEA to overtake Western Europe by 2015. According to Drewry Maritime Advisor report, Far East is the fastest

growing region in term of global container throughput in the past ten years. Through the period, the region’s share of

global container throughput has increased at a CAGR of 10.5% and reached 39% market share in FY12. While the

share of Western Europe and North America is on the decline; the share of South East Asia (SEA) remains at 14%.

By 2015, SEA is expected to overtake Western Europe to become the world second busiest region in term of

container throughput. For the period of FY13-15, the forecasted CAGR of container throughput for SEA will be 5.4%

per annum, slightly higher than the global container throughput’s CAGR of 4.9%.

Global container throughput by major region (‘m TEUs)

Region 2011 2012 2013* 2014* 2015*

Historical CAGR

(2002-2012)

Forecast CAGR

(2012-2015)

North America 46.2 47.3 48.6 50.2 52.2 3.3% 3.3%

Western Europe 92.4 94.7 98.9 97.7 100.7 5.1% 2.1%

Far East 231.2 243.6 257.0 272.5 290.4 10.5% 6.0%

SEA 82.7 87.2 91.6 96.6 102.0 7.7% 5.4%

Middle East 36.5 39.4 41.0 43.3 45.8 11.1% 5.2%

Latin America 43.9 46.3 48.0 50.5 54.0 9.1% 5.3%

World 594.2 621.0 649.5 678.2 716.8 8.3% 4.9% * 2013-2015 figures represent estimates

Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors, Company, MIDFR

Temporary derailed growth during financial crisis 2008-09. In between 2000 and 2012, the global container

throughput grew at a CAGR of 8.4% amidst the expansion of global trade activities. Nonetheless, the outbreak of

global financial crisis in 2008-09 disrupted the international trade flow and dragged down the global container

throughput by -9%yoy in 2009. Consequently, the SEA region suffered contraction of container throughput by -

6.1%yoy to 67.4m TEUs. The world’s governments responded to the crisis and introduced various economic stimulus

plans. The global trade activities subsequently rebounded by +15%yoy in 2010.

Historical and forecast global container port throughput 1990-2015 (‘m TEUs)

Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors, Company, MIDFR * 2013-2015 data represents estimates.

Page 7: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

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Ranking of Top 15 container ports in the world (2012)

Rank Port Country 2011 Throughput

('m TEUs) 2012 Throughput

('m TEUs) YoY growth

(%)

1 Shanghai China 31.8 32.5 2.2

2 Singapore Singapore 29.9 31.6 5.7

3 Hong Kong Hong Kong 24.4 23.1 -5.3

4 Shenzhen China 22.5 22.9 1.8

5 Busan South Korea 16.4 17.1 4.3

6 Ningbo China 14.6 16.2 11.0

7 Guangzhou (Nansha) China 14.1 14.5 2.8

8 Qingdao China 13.2 14.5 9.8

9 Dubai UAE 13.0 13.3 2.3

10 Tianjin/Xingang China 11.5 12.3 7.0

11 Rotterdam Netherlands 11.9 11.9 0.0

12 Port Klang Malaysia 9.4 10 6.4

13 Kaohsiung Taiwan 9.6 9.8 2.1

14 Hamburg Germany 9.0 8.9 -1.1

15 Antwerp Belgium 8.7 8.6 -1.1

Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors, Company, MIDFR

Westport’s throughput analysis and port utilisation

Source: Company, MIDFR

Page 8: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

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COMAPANY PROSPECT

Joining of HPH boosted the prospect of Westport. Due to intensified global port competitions, the port industry

experienced consolidations in recent years. As at the end of FY11, the top 10 international terminal operators

accounted for circa 63% of global container throughput in 2011. Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH), the top global port

investor, controls 12.1% market share of global containers in 2011. Following the acquisition of 30% Westport’s stake

in September 2000, HPH emerged as the second major shareholders of Westport. The strategic partnership enabled

Westport to access to its advanced port handling technology as well as the sharing of global networks of main

shipping line clients.

Top 10 global container port operator in the world (2010 and 2011)

Ranking 2010 2011

2011 2010 Operator 'm TEUs share 'm TEUs share

1 1 Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) 72.7 13.2% 71.8 12.1%

2 3 APM Terminals 60.2 11.0% 64.7 10.9%

3 2 PSA International (Port of S'pore Authority) 64.3 11.7% 57.1 9.6%

4 4 DP World 49.5 9.0% 54.1 9.1%

5 5 COSCO Group 48.3 8.8% 53.2 9.0%

6 6 MSC/Terminal Investment Ltd 19.4 3.5% 24.5 4.1%

7 - China Shipping Terminal Development 14.5 2.6% 18.8 3.2%

8 7 Eurogate 12.3 2.2% 12.9 2.2%

9 10 Hanjin 8.5 1.5% 10 1.7%

10 8 SSA Marine/Carrix 9.1 1.7% 9.7 1.6%

Top 10 Operator 358.9 65.3% 376.8 63.4%

Other operators 190.5 34.7% 217.5 36.6%

Total 549.4 100.0% 594.3 100.0%

Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors, Company, MIDFR

Vessel size does matter. Driven by economies of scale to reduce the container slot costs, the shipping mercantile

continues to order for larger vessels amid the expanding global feet size. Currently, the largest available container

vessel in operation is able to carry 18,000 TEUs per trip. The ports too have to upgrade their terminal facilities to

accommodate these ever larger vessels, with cranes with sufficient outreach, berth lengths and berth draft. Westport

is now equipped with the capability in handling 18,000 TEUs container vessels after the completion of CT6.

Pricing is the key attraction to future growth. Westport currently offers the lowest tariff rate among the other

regional port operators. Westport charges the 20” container transhipment at USD46/move, translating into a discount

of 29% and 51% against the tariff charged by PTP and Port of Singapore respectively. The Port Klang’s tariffs on the

container handling services have not been revised since 1965. Although there is a possibility of tariff revision in the

future, we opine that the Port Klang authority would like to retain the current tariff structure to entice the higher flow of

transhipment volume.

Page 9: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

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Comparisons between Straits of Malacca main ports transhipments tariffs

Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors, Company, MIDFR

High speed transhipment clearance is another key distinction. Streamline operations and advanced container

handling technology enable Westport to attain higher crane efficiency than its regional peers. It routinely achieves 70-

100 moves per hour per vessel (vessel over 300m in length) for main line vessels and 35 moves per hour for large

vessel. The high turnaround time is 40% faster than the industry standard (industry average of 25 moves per hour). It

transhipment clearance will take a waiting time of 2-3 hours at berth as compared to the average of four hours in other

regional ports.

Comparisons of Crane Productivity and Berth Productivity

Crane Productivity (TEU per crane per year)

Berth Productivity (TEU per metre)

Note: Represents 2011 figures Source: Drewry Maritime Advisors, Company, MIDFR

Page 10: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

10

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

Higher container throughput drives revenue growth. Westport derived 80-82% of its revenue from the container

service segment, supplemented by other revenue source including conventional cargo, marine services and rental

collection. It registered the overall throughput growth of 14.6% and 4.3% in FY11 and FY12 respectively, riding on the

steady growth of regional container throughput. For FY12, its laden container recorded an exceptional growth of

17.6%yoy to 2.0m TEUs and overtook NCB with 52.8% of laden container market share in Port Klang. In tandem with

the rising container throughput, its core revenue (excluding construction revenue) expanded by +14.4%yoy and

+9.9%yoy correspondingly for FY11 and FY12.

Revenue Breakdown

Source: Company, MIDFR

Capital commitments for the construction of CT7. Westport is expected to incur CAPEX outlays of RM658m and

RM398m respectively in FY13 and FY14 for the construction of CT7, the reclamation jobs for CT8-9, purchase of quay

cranes and other terminal operating facilities. The CAPEX funding source would be obtained through internal

generated fund, the drawdown of SMTN borrowing and government grant which is reimbursable (capped at RM318m).

The reclamation works for CT6-9 was primarily funded through the government grant under the Public Private

Partnership Initiative (PPP).

Net income growth to be depressed by higher depreciation and finance charges. The completion of CT7 Phase I

is scheduled by 2H14, to be followed by the CT7 Phase II in FY15. The expansion of the port terminal would result in

higher depreciation charges from FY14 onwards. The port expansion would be partly financed through the drawdown

of its RM2.0b SMTN programme, leading to higher finance costs to be incurred. Nonetheless, Westport would be able

to partially offset the higher incremental costs through the investment tax allowance to moderate the net income

growth.

Core Revenue and Net Profit

Source: Company, MIDFR

RM'm

Page 11: Westport Initiating coverage 211013 - I3investor · 2013. 10. 21. · CT6 Mac 2013 0.6 9.5 CT7 (Phase I) 2H14 - 9.5 CT7 (Phase II) 2015 1.5 11.0 CT8-9 n.a. 5.0 16.0 Schedule of reclamation

MIDF EQUITY BEAT Monday, 21 October 2013

11

VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION

Dividend payout policy. Westport targets a minimum dividend payout ratio of 75% on its annual profit after tax

(PAT). A portion of its retained earnings will be utilised for the partial financing of its port expansion plan. At the

current dividend payout guidance, we expect Westport to distribute dividends of 8.7sen and 9.4sen for FY14 and

FY15 respectively. If pegged to the retail IPO price of RM2.50, it should translate into dividend yield of 3.5% and 3.8%

for the next two years respectively.

Initiate coverage with a NEUTRAL recommendation with TP of RM2.56. Westport had experienced ten years of

above than industrial average growth in terms of container throughput, with a CAGR of 13.2%. Moving forward, we

expect its container throughput will still grow albeit at a tepid pace due to the slowdown in regional trade activities and

intensified competitions. Westport’s TP is pegged at RM2.56, based on our dividend discount model (DDM). This

implies PER14 of 22.1x and provides investor a decent dividend yield of 3.5%. Although its dividend yield is slightly

lower as compared to NCB and Bintulu Port, Westport is blessed with moderately higher mid-term growth prospect

and strong potential for further port expansions.

DDM Valuation Table

Market Risk Premium (MRP) 6.5%

Risk free rate (RFR) 3.5%

Beta (β) 0.6

required equity return (k) 7.4%

dividend growth rate (g) 4.0%

FY14 dividend (D1) 8.7sen

TP = D1/(k-g) RM2.56

Source: Company, Forecasts by MIDFR

RISK CONSIDERATIONS

Transhipment throughput is highly susceptible to global economic conditions. The performance of

transhipment traffic has a strong correlation with the global GDP growth as well as the global trade activities. Based

on the statistics compiled by IMF, it suggests that every percentage change in GDP had led to a 3% change in

container shipping volume in between 1980-2012. The outbreak of global financial crisis 2008-09 had dragged down

the Westport’s throughput growth by -10.4%yoy to 4.5m TEUs in FY09. Hence, the heightened uncertainty in global

economic conditions and slowdown in China manufacturing activities would discourage the growth of Westport’s

container throughput.

Undiversified client base. Westport’s top five largest customers collectively accounted for an average of its 40.4% of

total revenue in FY10-12. Its single largest client, CMA CGM group already contributed more than 15% of its total

revenue in FY12. If one of its major clients decides to shift operation to other regional port, it will lose out the

significant portion of transhipment traffic as well as the source of revenue. Consequently, the lower port capacity

utilisation may further drag down the profitability of Westport.

Heightened competitions from the regional peers. Westport competes with PTP and Port of Singapore for the

transhipment volume as the latters are also the established regional transhipment hubs along the Straits of Malacca. If

these competitors are able to improve in terms of the better cost efficiency, connectivity to other feeder ports and

enhancement of relationships with clients, it may eventually lure away its major clients to erode its transhipment

market share.

Increasing operating expenditure particularly in utility charges and fuel costs. The fuel price spiked up from the

average price of USD90/b in FY10 to USD126/b in FY11, had contributed to the increase of the higher fuel

expenditure by +55.6%yoy to RM80.7m. As the fuel and utility charges constituted to the substantial portion of its

OPEX, the inflationary pressure and fluctuation of market price of fuel would give the impact to the profitability of

Westport’s business.

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SECTOR COMPARISON

APPENDICES

Financial Summary (FYE Dec)

Income statement (RM’m) FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F FY15F

Revenue 1,387.4 1,492.3 1,646.8 1,663.6 1,724.5

Core Revenue 1,115.3 1,226.2 1,320.8 1,444.6 1,574.5

EBITDA 528.0 597.6 642.8 662.2 714.3

PBT 365.1 434.7 502.3 482.7 509.0

Taxation (48.6) (73.7) (90.4) (86.9) (81.4)

PAT 316.5 361.0 411.9 395.8 427.5

EPS (sen) 9.3 10.6 12.1 11.6 12.5

EPS growth (%) 11.1 14.1 14.1 (3.9) 8.0

Net dividend (sen) 5.9 29.6 9.1 8.7 9.4

Balance sheet (RM’m) FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F FY15F

PP&E 898.0 994.1 1,101.8 1,388.3 1,477.1

Concession asset 1,612.0 1,684.1 2,046.1 2,265.1 2,515.1

Cash and near cash 114.7 325.5 174.2 192.1 159.4

Other current asset 476.0 210.7 250.9 274.5 299.2

Total asset 3,100.7 3,214.4 3,573.1 4,120.0 4,450.9

Share capital 151.0 151.0 341.0 341.0 341.0

Retained earnings 1,177.3 1,337.0 1,265.3 1,339.5 1,419.6

LT borrowings 695.0 450.0 1,000.0 1,400.0 1,400.0

Other liabilities 1,077.4 1,276.4 966.8 1,039.5 1,290.2

Total equity & liab. 3,100.7 3,214.4 3,573.1 4,120.0 4,450.9

Operating Statistics FY11 FY12 FY13F FY14F FY15F

Transhipment throughput (m’TEU) 4.7 4.9 5.2 5.5 5.8

Laden throughput (m’TEU) 1.7 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6

Total throughput (m’TEU) 6.4 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.4

Container utilization rate 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.83 0.73

Source: Company, Forecasts by MIDFR

Company Bloomberg

ticker Local

currency

Last Price (LC)

Mkt Cap (‘bil LC)

P/E (x) P/B (x) 3 yr avg ROE (%)

DPS

FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14

Hutchison Port Trust

HPHT SP SGD 0.78 6.75 26.4 24.5 0.8 7.5 n.a. 6.2 7.6

COSCO Pacific

1199 HK HKD 11.40 32.02 7.2 11.8 0.9 1.6 10.7 3.2 7.1

Shanghai Int’l Port

600018 CH CNY 5.12 116.51 21.7 19.9 2.3 2.1 12.8 2.6 2.6

DP World DPW DU USD 16.00 13.28 23.1 20.3 1.6 9.6 7.9 1.3 1.5

Bintulu Port BPH MK MYR 7.51 3.45 24.8 22.6 3.1 2.3 22.4 4.0 4.0

NCB NCB MK MYR 3.86 1.82 23.4 15.8 1.2 3.1 9.2 1.6 1.6

Average 21.1 19.1 1.7 4.4 12.6 3.2 4.1

Westport WPRTS MK MYR 2.65 9.04 26.5 22.1 5.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a.

Figures as of 18 Oct 2013

Source: Bloomberg, MIDFR

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Container Terminal Facilities & Operations

Container Services Terminal handling & value-added services

Conventional Services Dry bulk, break bulk, liquid bulk, RORO and cement

Marine Services Tug boat and pilotage services

Rental Services Rental of land, storage facilities and office space

Berth length 14 berths with an aggregate length of 4km

Capacity Approximately 9.5m TEUs p.a.

Area 137.7 hectares consisting of:

CT1-6

Planned development for approximately 169.5 hectares:

CT7 - 52.3 hectares (expected completion in 2015)

CT8 - 58.5 hectares

CT9 - 58.7 hectares

Equipment 47 quay cranes (all twin lifts)

125 RTGs

15 empty stackers

13 reach stackers

332 prime movers

347 trailers

Additional features 15-17.5m berth depth

1,236 reefer points

29,985 total ground slots

Productivity Routinely exceed 35 Moves Per Hour per crane for large vessels (over 300m in length)

Routinely achieve 70 - 100 Moves Per Hour per vessel on main line vessels

Routinely exceeding 50 Moves Per Hour per vessel on feeder vessels

Conventional Dry bulk, break bulk, liquid bulk, RORO, Cement, Other

Source: Company, MIDFR

DAILY PRICE CHART

Chua Boon Kian [email protected] 03-2173 8393

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14

MIDF RESEARCH ispart ofMIDF Amanah Investment Bank Berhad (23878 - X).

(Bank Pelaburan)

(A Participating Organisation of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad)

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD (23878-X). It is for

distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law.

Readers should be fully aware that this report is for information purposes only. The opinions contained

in this report are based on information obtained or derived from sources that we believe are reliable.

MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD makes no representation or warranty, expressed or

implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained therein and it should

not be relied upon as such.

This report is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial

instruments. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions

could result in materially different results. All opinions and estimates are subject to change without

notice. The research analysts will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of MIDF

AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD.

The directors, employees and representatives of MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK BERHAD may

have interest in any of the securities mentioned and may benefit from the information herein. Members

of the MIDF Group and their affiliates may provide services to any company and affiliates of such

companies whose securities are mentioned herein This document may not be reproduced, distributed or

published in any form or for any purpose.

MIDF AMANAH INVESTMENT BANK : GUIDE TO RECOMMENDATIONS

STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

BUY Total return is expected to be >15% over the next 12 months.

TRADING BUY Stock price is expected to riseby >15% within 3-months after a Trading Buy rating has been assigned due to positive newsflow.

NEUTRAL Total return is expected to be between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.

SELL Total return is expected to be <15% over the next 12 months.

TRADING SELL Stock price is expected to fallby >15% within 3-months after a Trading Sell rating has been assigned due to negative newsflow.

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS

POSITIVE The sector is expected to outperform the overall market over the next 12 months.

NEUTRAL The sector is to perform in line with the overall market over the next 12 months.

NEGATIVE The sector is expected to underperform the overall market over the next 12 months.