What are the odds?Alberta Economic Forecast for 2016

Todd Hirsch

Chief Economist

Oil at $US 80

ODDS: 75:1

Oil at $US 20

ODDS: 20:1

Oil at $US 50-55

ODDS: 3:1

China “collapse”

ODDS: 6:1

B of C interest rate hike?

ODDS: 15:1

Unemployment hits 8%

ODDS: 3:1

Net out-migration

ODDS: 1:1

Housing market downturn?

ODDS: 3:1 (prices down >5-10%) 7:1 (prices down >20%)

Modest recovery in 2016?

ODDS: 1:1

More diversity

ODDS: 0:1

"We can choose to be the

Alberta that doesn’t let the

world happen to us, but the

one that takes our destiny in

our own hands and acts.”

- Adam Legge, Calgary Chamber of Commerce

The Owl

atb.com/economics

toddhirsch.com

ABeconomist