what are the prospects for a pakistan

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  • 8/17/2019 What Are the Prospects for a Pakistan

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    What are theProspects for aPakistan-US Nuclear

    Deal?Urmi TatResearch Intern, IPCS

     

    The South Asian region has become the focus of global politics, with the proliferation ofunaccountable non-state actors, corruption of civilian institutions and the prevailing atmosphere ofmutual suspicion between India and Pakistan The possession of nuclear weapons b! non-"PT stateslike India and Pakistan has been cause for further concern due to apprehensions of nuclear accidents,potential for misuse of nuclear material and an ine#haustible arms race $nlike the $S-India civilian

    nuclear deal, no concrete civilian nuclear agreement has been reached between the $S and Pakistan

    %owever, recent diplomatic visits between the $S and Pakistan administrations and commitmentstowards increasing nuclear cooperation have given rise to speculation regarding a potentialagreement The report formulated b! Tob! &alton and 'ichael (repon of Carnegie )ndowment forInternational Peace and the Stimson Center respectivel!, is the latest in a series of suggestions thatcould be followed in chalking out a nuclear tra*ector! between the $S and Pakistan Considering theinfluence and stature of the authors in the $S strategic communit!, the report constitutes an insightinto the line of thinking followed b! polic!-makers

    +ollowing the line of action suggested b! 'ark +itpatrick, in his book Overcoming Pakistan’s NuclearDangers ./012, the Carnegie-Stimson report seeks to 3normalise4 Pakistan into the nuclearmainstream %owever, it recognises that 5a commercial pathwa! to being mainstreamed into the

    global nuclear order is highl! unlikel! for Pakistan, which lacks the commercial leverage that resultedin a nuclear deal for India,6 and goes on to suggest compromises that it needs to make in order to be 3mainstreamed4 The 7uestion thus remains, whether the recommendations are feasible and

    contribute to alleviating the precarious securit! dilemma in the region

    Recommendations of the Carnegie-Stimson Report

    The ke! motive of the report remains to 3mainstream4 Pakistan into a global nuclear regime, whichotherwise remains glaring and inconspicuous with its absence It remains an affront to the credibilit!of the global order if it cannot reign in Pakistan, a defeat it has alread! suffered with its inabilit! tobring India within its fold The premise of the recommendations offered b! the report is its pro*ectionthat in the ne#t five to ten !ears Pakistan could have a nuclear arsenal not onl! twice the sie ofIndia4s but also larger than those of the $(, China, and +rance, giving it the third-largest arsenalbehind the $S and Russia Since no accurate account of Pakistan4s nuclear arsenal is available, this

    pro*ection that lends urgenc! to the report, has been labeled as a 3sensational speculation4 b! theCenter for International and Strategic Studies, Islamabad, and hailed similarl! b! the Strategic 8isionInstitute, Islamabad

    The report recommends five changes to the direction of Pakistan4s nuclear polic!9 A shift from 5fullspectrum6 to 5strategic6 deterrence ie possessing capabilities to deter onl! the worst casesStrategic deterrence is an alternative future envisioned b! the report, which re7uires a limitation ofPakistan4s nuclear polic!, thus allowing redirection of spending to civilian and militar! concerns2:commitment to a 5recessed deterrence posture6 and limitation of production of short-range deliver!

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    vehicles and tactical nuclear weapons: lifting of Pakistan4s veto on +issile 'aterial Cut-off Treat!+'CT2 negotiations and reduction of fissile material production: separation of civilian and militar!nuclear facilities: signing of the Comprehensive Test ;an Treat! without waiting for India

    Feasibility and Implications of the Report

    The recommendations of the report leave the impression that Pakistan is indebted to the internationalcommunit! and that it is read! to make heav!-handed compromises The proposition to lift the vetoon +'CT negotiations is considered unfair in the light of the fact that India has not been asked to stopthe production of fissile material The "S< waiver granted to India due to its nuclear deal with the $S

    has in fact allowed it to obtain uranium from the international market This proposition is considered 3purposefull! discriminator!4 especiall! when India has been offered advanced nuclear technologiesand s!stems that could e7uall! undermine the stabilit! of the region The unilateral concessions thatthe report demands reflects a lack of understanding of the geo-strategic scenario that affectsPakistan4s deterrence posture Its need for a nuclear agreement is premised not onl! on socio-economic and technological needs but also political needs Pakistan is war! of India4s potential entr!into the "S< and its subse7uent abilit! to veto Pakistan4s prospects of an entr! into the elite groupbut it will not oblige to a deal that makes it ps!chologicall! weaker to India in its own perception