what can the next president and congress do to juice the … · 2016-09-02 · lindsey piegza,...
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TheimprovementintheU.S.jobmarkethasbeenlookinglikeit'sforreal,buttheeconomystillhasotherchallenges,suchasitsfairlystinkygrowth.
RATESEARCH:Shoptodayforamortgagerefinance.
ECONOMICS
WhatcanthenextpresidentandCongressdotojuicetheeconomy?Expertsweighin
ByDougWhiteman•Bankrate.com
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Inour3rdquarter2016BankrateEconomicIndicatorsurveyofleadingeconomists,weasked:
What'sonethingthatthenextU.S.presidentandCongresscoulddotohelptheeconomy?
"IncreasefederalgovernmentinvestmentinU.S.infrastructurespending.Thereisanimmediateeconomicstimulusfromconstruction,andadditionaleconomicbenefitsonce(thework)iscompleted.Today,governmentborrowingcostsremainlow,soit'sanopportune
time,andtheneedisgreat."
ScottAnderson,chiefeconomist,BankoftheWest
"Getthedollardowntoreducethetradedeficit.Itwouldbebetter(tohave)largebudgetdeficitstofundinfrastructure,butsincethatseemsalmostimpossiblepolitically,alowertradedeficitisthemostfeasibleroutebacktofullemployment."
DeanBaker,codirector,CenterforEconomicandPolicyResearch
"Giventheabsolutelycrucialrolesmallandmidsizebusinessesplayingeneratingjobsandcapitalinvestmentsinthiscountry,onemajorgoalforCongressshouldbetoreducetheregulatoryburdenonsuchfirms."
BernardBaumohl,adjunctprofessor,FloridaGulfCoastUniversity
"Shortterm:moreinfrastructurespendingandeffortstoencouragebusinessinvestment.Longterm:earlychildeducation,greaterfundingforresearchanddevelopment."
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ScottBrown,chiefeconomist,RaymondJames
"Setupalongterminfrastructureproject.Iwouldpreferanindependentinfrastructuretaskforcethatwouldchooseworthyprojects.Thepoliticalconsensusmaychoosetoputinplaceaninfrastructurebankorjustfinancetheprojectoutbetween3050years.
Theprojectsshouldnotjustincluderoads,bridges,roadsandwaterways,butalsosewage,theelectricalinfrastructuregridandthehardeningofboththephysicalgridandoverallcybersecurity."
JosephBrusuelas,chiefeconomist,RSMU.S.
"Enactsometargetedfiscalpolicy,somegrowthorientedcombinationoftaxcutsandspendingincreases."
JohnCanally,chiefeconomicstrategist,LPLFinancial
"Infrastructurespending."
GregoryDaco,headofU.S.macroeconomics,OxfordEconomics
"Infrastructurespendingwouldboosteconomicgrowthintheshortandlongertermandsupportcontinuedjobgrowth,allatlowcostbasedonlowinterestrates."
RobertDietz,chiefeconomist,NationalAssociationofHomeBuilders
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"Getsomerealtaxreformpassed.Thatenablesspending,improvesexpectations."
BillDunkelberg,chiefeconomist,NationalFederationofIndependentBusiness
"TaxreformthatencouragesU.S.economicgrowth,movestofurtherglobaltradetostimulateglobaleconomicgrowth,andeffortstoreducetheregulatoryburdenonbusinesses."
MichaelFratantoni,chiefeconomist,MortgageBankersAssociation
"ReducingtheU.S.debtanddeficitiskey,sinceinterestpaymentsarelikelytoriseasthedebtanddeficitincrease.Moreover,ifinterestratesincreaseinthefuture,interestpaymentsondebtcouldalsoincrease;thiscouldbefurtherimpactedifdemandforTreasuriesasa'safe
haven'declines."
NayantaraHensel,formerchiefeconomist,U.S.Navy
"Simplifyregulatorystructures."
TimothyHopper,chiefeconomist,TIAA
"Thenextpresidentwillneedtotrytoreduceincomeinequalitysensiblyby:(a)increasingthecapitalgainstaxratesmodestly(lessthanproposedbycandidateHillaryClinton);and(b)increasingspendingoninfrastructure.Thiswillbetoagreatextentquitelimited
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sincethefederalbudgetdeficitanddebtlevelarelikelytobegintorisetowardhigherandcertainly'lessacceptable'levelsin(the)20172018timeperiod."
HughJohnson,chairmanandchiefinvestmentofficer,HughJohnsonAdvisors
"Taxreformisanimportantingredientthatwouldhelptheeconomyjumpitstrendgrowthof2%.WecannotcontinuetohavetheconsumerserveasAtlastotheeconomy.Increasedbusinessinvestmentisacriticalpath,andrightnowthereistoomuchuncertainty."
JackKleinhenz,chiefeconomist,NationalRetailFederation
"Iwouldboostspendingonmuchneededinfrastructureimprovements,suchasbridges,roads,andrailways.Thiswouldcreatejobsintheshortrunandliftcommerceoverthelongrun.Thesearerepairsandimprovementsthatneedtobemadeeventually,so
whynotnow?"
AlanMacEachin,corporateeconomist,NavyFederalCreditUnion
"Increasespendingoninfrastructure.Thenation'sinfrastructurecontinuestodeteriorate.Poorinfrastructureultimatelylimitstheabilityoftheeconomytogrow.Further,spendingoninfrastructurewouldprovidefiscalstimulustotheeconomy.Atthemoment,interestrates
arelow,buildingmaterialspricesarereasonablystable(thoughnowmovingup)andanumberofconstructionworkersremainoutofwork.Thus,investingininfrastructureisagoodpolicychoice.Theonepotentialproblemisthatdespiteanumberofunemployedconstructionworkers,thereisashortageofsomeskilledconstructionworkers.However,ifimplementedproperly,theseprojectswouldhelpattractthenecessaryworkersandprovidethemeanstotrainandhireintheseskillareas."
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BernardMarkstein,presidentandchiefeconomist,MarksteinAdvisors
"Encourageinvestmenttohelpproductivitygrowth."
JimO'Sullivan,chiefU.S.economist,HighFrequencyEconomics
"ThenextU.S.presidentandCongresscouldimplementprobusinesspolicies,lowertaxratesandcutgovernmentsizeandspending."
LindseyPiegza,chiefeconomist,Stifel
"Reducethecorporatetaxrate,which,at39%,putsU.S.firmsatamajorcompetitivedisadvantagerelativetootherfirms."
LynnReaser,chiefeconomist,FermanianBusiness&EconomicInstitute,PointLomaNazareneUniversity
"Thereisnoonemagiclever,butacombinationofpolicieswouldbeuseful.Forexample,increasedinfrastructurespendingwouldbevaluable,butmosteffectiveifimplementedwithafocusonqualityratherthanpoliticsandmatchedbyactiontoaddressthelongterm
fiscalchallenge.TheClintoncampaignhasdonetheoppositepushedforinfrastructurewithoutafocusonquality,andtalkedintheoppositedirectionofaddressingthefiscalchallengeovertime."
PhilipSwagel,professorofinternationaleconomicpolicy,UniversityofMarylandSchoolofPublicPolicy
"Makepolicyandpolicychangespredictable.Theeconomycanadjusttoalmost
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SHARETHISSTORY
anypolicylandscape.Itistheuncertaintythatishardtoadjustto."
PolinaVlasenko,seniorresearchfellow,AmericanInstituteforEconomicResearch
"LowerthecorporatetaxratetobringU.S.profitssittingabroadbacktoAmerica,andusetherevenuetoincreaseinfrastructurespending."
LawrenceYun,chiefeconomist,NationalAssociationofRealtors
"Immigrationreformtoallowmoreeducatedandskilledworkersintothecountry.Alackofskilledlaborwillbeourbiggesteconomicproblemoverthenextcoupleofdecades."
MarkZandi,chiefeconomist,Moody'sAnalytics
Posted:Sept.1,2016