what does asia want from australian wheat?...2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 new zealand sudan iraq india...
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What does Asia want from Australian wheat?Dr Ken Quail
AMC
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Content page• AEGIC• Importance of Asia• Choice analysis• Major targets• Future growth and opportunity• Competition
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Who is AEGIC?• Investment by WA Government and GRDC• Laboratories in Perth and Sydney (former BRI)• National, independent ‘innovation center’ for Australian grains• Not for profit company
• PURPOSE & VISION• To increase value in the Australian grains industry• To be Australia’s leading organization for market insight,
innovation and applied technology in the grains industry
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Australian wheat exports
SE Asia now accounts for 44% of Australian wheat exports. Asia accounts for 65%...and rising
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Our leading markets
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000
New ZealandSudan
IraqIndia
YemenMalaysia
PhilippinesJapan
Korea, Republic ofChina
Viet NamIndonesia
Wheat exports 5 year Ave 2013 to 2017 ('000MT)
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Flour use in SEA
• Noodles are the largest flour use in Indonesia and Malaysia
• Bread major use in Philippines• Study focussed on wheat
purchase for noodle and bread
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Quality requirements of SEA wheat marketsBuild evidence on preferences for wheat quality and functional attributes• 4 markets studied• 20 milling companies and 80 participants
(wheat purchasers & mill technicians)• Evidence based approach – choice analysis
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Attribute preferences when Indonesian flour mill technicians purchase wheat for bread making
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Quality inspection, chemical/mycotoxin testsOn-farm quality assurance program
Technical support,seasonal quality reportScreenings/unmillable material
Country of originGrain colour (white vs red)
Moisture contentWater absorption
Wheat ashDough tolerance
Wheat gradeDough development time
Test weightDough stability time
PriceFlour colour - b*
Uniformity of wheat shipmentWheat falling number
Noodle colour b*Starch viscosityDough strength
Flour ashProtein content
Dough extensibilityMilling yield
Flour colour - L*Wet gluten content
Noodle colour L*Noodle texture firmnessNoodle texture elasticity
Noodle colour stability
Importance index
Attribute preferences when Indonesian flour mill technicians purchase wheat for fresh noodles
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Wheat grade preferences for Indonesian fresh noodles
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Russian wheat
Ukraine milling wheat
USA HRW
Canadian CWHWS
USA DNS
Australian ASW
Canadian CWRS
Australian APW
Australian AH
Australian APH
Wheat grade preference score
Mill technicians Wheat purchasers
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Competition
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Indonesian consumption
2014 2020Wheat consumption
22kg/person 34kg/person
Segment GrowthRate
2015/20 (%)
Market Scale 2025 (MMT)
Instant noodles 17 4.3Fresh &dry noodles
25 3.1
Bread & buns 28 3.3 Biscuits & cakes 16 1.4Pasta 44 <0.2
Australian wheat exports ave2011-15
4MMT
Other suppliers ave 2011-15 3.8MMTProjected total import growth 2025
5MMT
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SEA: Key RecommendationsSEA: Market
Scale 2025 (MMT)Price
Differenceto BS
Defend share of noodle marketVolume of wheatGrow the price differential to Black SeaContinuous improvement using B/W and WTP data as reference
8.2 >20USD
Capture share of the bread marketDrive improvement in baking performanceEstablish an elite baking class using B/W and WTP as targets
5.5 >50USD
Australian wheat to supply the biscuit, cracker and cake market
Develop a solution that provides a win for farmers and our markets
2.7 ASWprice?
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Conclusions• Asia is a focus for our wheat and value add markets• End product performance drives value with clear messages for:
• Breeding• Classification• Supply chain
• Noodles are our strength but there are opportunities to supply bread and soft wheat markets
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Next steps• Vietnam and Thailand• Detailed demand studies to forecast requirements to
2030 including market segments• Soft wheat
• Benchmarking US wheat and potential Australian supply to Asian requirements
• Global supply and demand• Review production options
• Australian wheat for Asian baking
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GRDC InvestmentAEGIC staff
Ros JettnerLarisa CatoChris Carter
Acknowledgements