What doesn’t kill you makes you stronger

Friedrich Nietzsche

OVERVIEW

• Ireland: 3 Steps forward. 1 step back.

• Perspective: The antidote to recessions

• Business and the Demographic Dividend

• Government and the Density Dividend

• Economic Unity: Ireland’s ace card.

Ireland: 4 steps forward, 1 step back

Irelands relative growth performance 1997 to 2006

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12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 AverageYear on year percentage change

Yea

r; a

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Ireland Euro area OECD

But the Irish economy has gone from this…..

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Domestic Demand External Demand

2005-2007: FROM TIGER TO GARFIELD

….to this…..

SO JUST WHAT HAPPENED?

• 1994 April: ESRI Medium Term Forecast for economy:

• “Growth avge 7% 94-04, slowing thereafter to around 3%”

• But damage to cost competitiveness over 94-04 lowered trend growth to 2.5% p.a.

• So growth should have been 2.5% 05-09• On average, by this year’s end, that’s

what we’ll get

2005-2009; A GAME OF TWO HALVES

• 2005 – 2007 inclusive: Average growth just over 6 per cent.

• 2008 – 2009 inclusive: Average growth -3 per cent.

• Entire period: Average growth: 2.5%

• Question: What divides these two periods???

2005-2009; A GAME OF TWO HALVES

Real level of output in economy

90000

110000

130000

150000

170000

190000

210000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Year

Mill

ion

s e

uro

Economic output: Electorally massaged

Economic output: Properly managed

MARKETING: THE ANTIDOTE TO RECESSION

If the economy as a whole isn’t growing, find out what is…….

Like:• Population + 150,000 in last two years (CSO)• Half a million people between 16 and 24 (CSO)• World population to grow from 6 bn to 9 bn by 2050 (UN)• Number of people over 65 to double between 2005 and 2025• % of world’s population in urban areas to grow from 37% in 2005 to 60% in 2025. This trend happening in Ireland also

…AND BY 2026

…There will be at least a half million more people in the country and possibly one and a half million more people

CSO Population projections, Dec. 4th 2008:

•Current Population is 4.3 million•Lowest 2026 pop. will be 4.9 million•Highest 2026 pop. will be 5.7 million

EU Commission, Dec 2008: 6.7 million in Republic by 2058 and 9 million on island of Ireland

ECONOMIC UNITY: IRELAND’S ACE CARD

What if island of Ireland had population density of…?

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0Ir

elan

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06

Irel

and

1841

Den

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Isra

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Eng

land

Mill

ions

of

peop

le

IRELAND AND ENGLAND: POPULATION'S COMPARED

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1841

2006

Milli

ons

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Ireland England

England

Ireland

BUSINESS AND THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

Back to the Future: Ireland's Historic Population U-Turn

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9000

1841 1871 1901 1936 1966 1981 2006 2021 2041

Censal year

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Republic of Ireland* Northern Ireland* Island of Ireland

*Before 1922 the geographical equivalent of

GOVERNMENT AND THE DENSITY DIVIDEND

Distorted approach to space & density is holding us back from further growth

- Inflated land prices behind huge loans to property sector- Feudal attitudes to land & Failure to price properly:

- As monopoly good even Thatcher accepted it’s price needed to be controlled

Failure to achieve “Density Dividend” meaning- Population sprawled out instead of rising up. - Over concentration in commuter belt rather than clustered

towns, resulting in:1. long commutes and high prices

2. Small communities where provision of public transport, centres of health excellence, broadband not feasible

3. Lower quality of life due to distance from work, families

4. Weaker economic potential, FDI & growth of local business

5. Rip-off Ireland as residents in smaller towns more likely to be exposed to local monopolies

GOVERNMENT AND THE DENSITY DIVIDEND

• Good news: With half a million pop growth by 2020, there is plenty of potential to reverse in relative terms the spatial sprawl of the last decade

• We need to build up and in rather than out and across. We need fewer local authorities and national transport and planning agencies to plan city areas as drivers of regional growth. This will benefit rural Ireland far more than current sprawl.

• We should channel that growth into urban areas rather than commuter belts to achieve these population levels in our key cities by 2020:– Cork 250,000– Galway 150,000– Waterford 100,000– Limerick 200,000– Sligo 100,000

The real cause of the banking crisis: Land.

• Planning– Growth is not clustered– Blanchardstown, Swords, Skerries, Rush, Lusk &

other areas all saw substantial population growth– Growth spread like butter– Stamullen: 2002; 729 people 2006; 2,487!

• High land and house prices that caused the boom and subsequent bust

• Militates against provision of public transport

• Militates against provision of quality public services

• Implications also for– Cost of Living– Quality of Life & access to amenities– Carbon footprint of sprawled housing…heating & car

reliance

ECONOMIC UNITY: IRELAND’S ACE CARD

• Republic of Ireland– High cost– Dynamic private sector & entrepreneurial– But poor public sector, bad public

governance, broadband

• Northern Ireland– Low cost– High state sector, needs entrepreneurial

drive– But good broadband & attitudes to getting

things done in terms of infrastructure.

• If these were 2 companies, you’d merge them immediately.

CONCLUSIONS

• Message 1: Don’t panic: After a phenomenal economic performance since mid-1990s, we can survive a two-year recession. We are blowing froth off a protracted boom.

• Message 2: Demographic dividend Growth is out there but its just not aggregate economic growth. Demographic segments are providing huge marketing growth opportunities, globally and nationally, for marketers willing to exploit them.

• Message 3: Density dividend: Government needs to change spatial strategy, town planning, land use and transport/broadband to cluster our population more effectively. Crucial to support NDP roll out.

• Message 4: The Best is Yet to Come On an island whose population is set to grow from 6 to 8 million in the coming half century, we shouldn’t worry about the future. Instead we need to start planning for it. Politics aside, a United Irish economy will benefit all inhabitants, north and south.